Competitiveness of the EU dairy industry

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Competitiveness of the EU dairy industry

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Figure 8.3 Food export shares of selected regions under different

scenarios for 2015 (in % of world food expert, 2001=100)

Figure 8.3 describes the development of food export shares in the total world

food export. Under the initial 2001 situation (Initial) the EU has a food export share

of more than 25%. It should be mentioned that under all scenarios calculated for

this study the EU remains together with the Nafta region one of the largest exporter

of processed foods. However, the declining export shares between 2001

and 2015 indicate a loss in international competitiveness, see Base. This decline

is due to the consequences of the decline in agricultural support as the consequence

of the implementation of reform of the CAP between 2001 and 2007. The

CAP instruments also affect the prices of processed food prices. As a consequence,

production in agri-food sectors decline in the EU-15 and excess supply

disappears. In this scenario other regions in the world gain export shares: highest

relative increases are in the Nafta region and Brazil. Strongly growing economies

such as China also loose export share in world food markets which is mainly due

to a strong growth in domestic demand which reduces the excess supply available

for exports.

An enhanced productivity growth in European dairy industries (scenario HP

Dairy) will compensate for the above mentioned decline in European share of

food products in world total food exports. It is assumed that productivity growth

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