Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...

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Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...

current market drivers

Projected GDP Growth can be used to

forecast the likely trajectory of the business

jet penetration for each region. Realization

of fleet growth implicitly assumes expected

adoption and acceptance of business jets and

the progressive removal of barriers to growth,

notably lack of adequate infrastructure and

regulatory limitations. As the economy

develops, the expected growth of the

business jet fleet in each region can be

reasonably predicted over the longer term.

Once fleets are netted of aircraft retirements,

business jet deliveries to each region can

be derived.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management has

recently introduced the term "Growth Market"

to define any country outside the developed

world that is responsible for at least 1% of

global GDP. These economies are most likely

to "experience rising productivity coupled

with favorable demographics and, therefore,

a faster growth rate than the world average

going forward". These include the BRIC

countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China)

and also Mexico, South Korea, Turkey and

Indonesia. We expect a significant share of

business jet deliveries to originate from

these Growth Markets.

Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 20

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