Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...

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Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 - Learjet ...

the forecast

Russia & CIS

Recovering at a relatively moderate pace

from a deep recession suffered in 2009, the

Russian economy remains overly dependent

on energy export revenues to drive domestic

growth. Energy prices have risen steadily

since mid-2009. They are expected to remain

elevated in the near-to-medium term, particularly

in light of popular unrest in the Middle

East and North Africa. Exports have been

driving the recovery, while domestic demand

has remained slack. Consumer confidence has

bounced back and household consumption

has been adding some momentum to the

economic recovery.

Business confidence is improving as well,

as shown by the strong growth in investment

activity. Nevertheless, there are offsetting

factors in the Russian economic environment

Business Jet Penetration Forecast - Russia & CIS

Fleet per capita vs. GDP per capita, 1960-2030

Fleet per 100 Million Population (Log Scale)

1,000

100

10

2010

Sources: Ascend, IMF, IHS Global Insight, UN Population Project, Bombardier forecast. Includes very light jets.

that will keep growth in the moderate pace.

Commercial lending rates are still relatively

high and banks are leery of a new wave

of loan defaults.

Future growth will be influenced by WTO

accession and the nation's newly cemented

energy exporting ties to China. According to

Moscow investment bank Renaissance

Bombardier Business Aircraft | Market Forecast 2011-2030 36

2030

Actual

Forecast

1960

1

1,000 10,000

GDP per Capita (USD, Log Scale)

100,000

Capital, increased government spending

before parliamentary elections in the end of

the year and a presidential vote in early 2012

may boost inflation. The number of billionaires

in Russia & CIS amounted to 116 in 2010,

up 61% from 72 in 2009, according to

Forbes. A total of 50 billionaires live in

Moscow, making it the city with the secondhighest

billionaire population after New York.

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