Observed climate changes in Croatia Climate change scenario

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MSR MSR MSR 15 12 9 6 3 CRIKVENICA (1891-2005) June y = 0.0174x + 0.29 0 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 year 30 25 20 15 10 5 CRIKVENICA (1891-2005) July y = 0.0297x + 0.88 0 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 year 15 12 9 6 3 CRIKVENICA (1891-2005) August y = 0.0293x + 1.56 0 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 year MSR MSR MSR 15 12 9 6 3 HVAR (1867-2005) June y = 0.0075x + 3.55 0 1867 1882 1897 1912 1927 1942 1957 1972 1987 2002 year 30 25 20 15 10 5 HVAR (1867-2005) July y = 0.0107x + 6.20 0 1867 1882 1897 1912 1927 1942 1957 1972 1987 2002 year 15 12 9 6 3 HVAR (1867-2005) August y = 0.0131x + 6.20 0 1867 1882 1897 1912 1927 1942 1957 1972 1987 2002 year Figure 3-3. Time series of monthly severity rate MSR, 5-year moving average and linear trends for meteorological stations Crikvenica (1891–2006) and Hvar (1867–2005). x is a number of years (1,2…n). 45
Increased forest fire risk, notified in June, is particularly important as it indicates to earlier beginning of fire season at Adriatic. However, the analysis also shows the expansion of the area with increased forest fire risk from the middle to northern Adriatic, especially in July and August. Reason of increased forest fire risk at northern Adriatic is due to a significant increase of mean air temperature and significant decrease of precipitation in summer. References: Sneyers, R., 1990: On the Statistical analysis of series of observations, WMO Tech. Note, 143, 1–15. Van Wagner C.E., 1974.: Structure of the Canadian forest fire weather index, Department of the Environment, Canadian Forestry Service, Publ. No. 1333, Ottava, 44 pp. Van Wagner C.E., T.L. Pickett, 1985: Equations and Fortran Program for the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System, Canadian Forestry Service, Government of Canada, Forestry Technical Report, 33 pp. Vučetić, M., 1987: Meteorološka analiza katastrofalnog šumskog požara na Korčuli 1985, Rasprave- Papers, 22, 67–72. Vučetić, M., 1992: Vremenske prilike tijekom šumskog požara na otoku Hvaru 13–31.7.1990, Hrvatski meteorološki časopis, 27, 69–76. Vučetić, M., 1998: The influence of weather condition on forest fire on the island of Hvar, 28 July–4 August 1997, Zbornik radova III International Conference on Forest Fire Research, Vol. I, Luso, Portugal, 16–20 studeni 1998,1295–1303. Vučetić, M., V. Vučetić,1999: Different types of the forest fires on the Croatian coast, Zbornik radova sa Symposium Forest Fires: Needs and Innovations, DELFI99, Athens, Greece, 17–20 studeni 1999, 365–369. Vučetić, M., 2001: Vremenske prilike i šumski požari na hrvatskom priobalju tijekom 2000., Šumarski list, 7–8, 367–378. Vučetić, M., 2002: Vremenske prilike i usporedba sezone zaštite šuma od požara 2001. u odnosu na višegodišnji prosjek, Šumarski list, 11–12, 563–574. Vučetić, M., V. Vučetić, 2002: Vrijeme na Jadranu – Meteorologija za nautičare, Fabra d.o.o., Zagreb, 129 pp. Vučetić, M., Vučetić, V., Španjol, Ž., Barčić, D., Rosavec, R., A. Mandić, 2006: Secular variations of monthly severity rating on the Croatian Adriatic coast during the forest fire season, Forest Ecology and Management, 234 suplement 1, 251–261. 46
Page 1 and 2: METEOROLOGICAL AND HYDROLOGICAL SER
Page 3 and 4: 1. Observed Climate Changes Detecti
Page 5 and 6: Table 1-2. Trends in mean annual an
Page 7 and 8: Table 1-4. Trends in indices of tem
Page 9 and 10: Tn90% (days) Tn90% (days) Tn90% (da
Page 11 and 12: days, wet days and very wet days),
Page 13 and 14: Precipitation anomalies (mm) Precip
Page 15 and 16: 1.3. Dry spells Detected significan
Page 17 and 18: Figure 1-7. Trend results for maxim
Page 19 and 20: 2. Climate Change Scenario 2.1. Int
Page 21 and 22: levels with the highest level at 10
Page 23 and 24: northern part of the domain, wherea
Page 25 and 26: shown), causing a slight increase i
Page 27 and 28: eduction is 1 mm in northern Croati
Page 29 and 30: objective statistical method. Inter
Page 31 and 32: Figure 2-1. Altitudinal temperature
Page 33 and 34: Figure 2-3. Wind at 10 m, future cl
Page 35 and 36: Figure 2-5. t-test significancy of
Page 37 and 38: Figure 2-7. Median number of hot da
Page 39 and 40: The flowering usually starts three
Page 41 and 42: Olive tree flowering is earlier 2 d
Page 43 and 44: Vučetić, V., M. Vučetić, 2005:
Page 45: within the season from May to Septe

Observed climate changes in Croatia Climate change scenario

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