Individual Mobility 2020

lexikon.kfz.tu.berlin.de

Individual Mobility 2020

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Individual Mobility 2020

Automotive Technology

Individual Mobility 2020

Seminar für Kraftfahrzeug- und Motorentechnik, TU-Berlin

Berlin, 05.11.2009 Dr. Athanasios Vikas, Vice President, Automotive Systems Integration

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Individual Mobility 2020

1 Drivers & Trends

2 Mobility Behaviour

3 Technology

Automotive Technology

3.1 Vehicle Motion and Safety

3.2 Vehicle Drive Train

4 Summary

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Individual Mobility 2020

City Mobility in the future

Automotive Technology

Skyweb Express

GM Puma Toyota

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Individual Mobility 2020

„Rotating Tower“ – the future of the skyscraper?

Features:

� Rotating direction on demand e.g. morning eastwards, afternoon westwards

� Power supply: Wind turbines between the floors; Solar panels on every floor;

support the power supply of the borough

� Vehicle lift and parking place

Automotive Technology

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MIT


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Individual Mobility 2020

1 Drivers & Trends

2 Mobility Behaviour

3 Technology

Automotive Technology

3.1 Vehicle Motion and Safety

3.2 Vehicle Drive Train

4 Summary

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Individual Mobility 2020

Macro Environment drives Automotive Trends

Urbanization

Socio-Economics

Energy

Automotive Technology

Infrastructure

Inexpensive

Vehicle

Standards

Affordable

Driving

Regulation Trend

Be Premium

Hassle Free

Regional Automotive Consumer Trend

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Emission

Safe Driving Relaxed Driving

Driving

Pleasure

Regional

Automotive Trends

Personalized

Usage

Safety

Climate

Technology

Resources


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Individual Mobility 2020

Global Warming increase

Temperature Anomaly [°C]

0,7

0,5

0,3

0,1

-0,1

-0,3

-0,5

Automotive Technology

Global Temperature

Annual Mean 5-Year Mean

1880 1900 1920 1940

Year

1960 1980 2000

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Individual Mobility 2020

Lack of Resources

Automotive Technology

Oil fields and oil production 1930 – 2000

New oil fields

Oil production

Oil production rising w/o new oil fields �� lack of resources

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Oil production Ww

New oil fields

New oil fields > 500 Mio. Brls

Source: LBST 2006, BP 2004


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Individual Mobility 2020

Development urban / rural population word wide

29 %

30 %

Urbanization world wide in percent

Source: World Urbanization Prospects, UN 2007; WBCSD

Automotive Technology

37 %

43 %

47 %

50 %

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Individual Mobility 2020

The Megacities

Definition: Population > 10 Mio., population density > 2.000 residents / km 2

Legend

1975

2005

2025

Los

Angeles

Automotive Technology

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60 %

Paris

New York

Istanbul

Beijing

Mexico

City

Cairo Delhi

Dhaka

Shenzhen Tokyo

Osaka-Kobe

Karachi

Shanghai

Lagos

LahoreGuangzhou

Mumbai

Manila

ChennaiCalcutta

Kinshasa

Jakarta

Buenos

Aires

Rio de Janeiro

Sao Paolo

Moska


Individual Mobility 2020

Primary energy by source

Automotive Technology

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Individual Mobility 2020

Major Consumer Trends Description

Increasing demand

for inexpensive

vehicles

Demand for premium

vehicles (status symbol)

in all vehicle segments

Automotive Technology

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Source: shell scenarios 2050

Inexpensive Vehicles Be Premium Affordable Driving Hassle Free

Increasing importance of Total

Cost of Owner-ship (TCO) driven

by fuel prices and emission taxes

Increasing importance of vehicle

quality, especially in emerging

markets

Safe Driving Relaxed Driving Driving Pleasure Personalized Usage

Demand for safe driving stays

on high level in developed

countries and will increase in

emerging markets

Increasing demand for comfort/

relaxation features and ease of

use vehicles (HMI, city driving)

Vehicle-as-experience incl.

entertainment features with

incr. importance / fun-todrive

like speed and torque

Personalization, individual style

and extended scope of vehicle

use, e.g. home-like connectivity

will gain importance


Ranking

Individual Mobility 2020

Overview Top 8 Consumer Trends 2008 & Outlook

CHINA INDIA JAPAN USA WEU

Inexpensive

Vehicle

Affordable

Driving

Hassle

Free

Safe

Driving

Relaxed

Driving

Personalized

Usage

Be

Premium

Driving

Pleasure

Emerging Markets Developed Markets

Importance towards 2020: increase no change decrease

Automotive Technology

Inexpensive

Vehicle

Affordable

Driving

Hassle

Free

Driving

Pleasure

Relaxed

Driving

Safe

Driving

Personalized

Usage

Be

Premium

Affordable

Driving

Hassle

Free

Inexpensive

Vehicle

Safe

Driving

Be

Premium

Relaxed

Driving

Driving

Pleasure

Personalized

Usage

Source: Bosch Workshops in Regions, External Sources

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Individual Mobility 2020

Automotive Technology

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Hassle

Free

Affordable

Driving

Relaxed

Driving

Be

Premium

Safe

Driving

Driving

Pleasure

Inexpensive

Vehicle

Personalized

Usage

Selected Drivers for Mobility Environment

Hassle

Free

Affordable

Driving

Driving

Pleasure

Safe

Driving

Be

Premium

Inexpensive

Vehicle

Relaxed

Driving

Personalized

Usage

Urbanization Socio-Economics Technology Mobility Costs

• Growth of Urban

Population

• Urban Economic

Centers

• Transport Restrictions

• …

• Aging Society

• Feminization

• Wealth Development

• …

• New Vehicle Concepts

• Alternative Powertrain

Technology

• Traffic Systems

• Personalization &

Connectivity

• …

• Rising Oil Price

• Emission related

Taxes

• Mandatory Fitments

Mobility Services

The strength of the driving factors and their impact on mobility environment differ by

regions

• …


Overview – Different types of segment shift

Individual Mobility

Small

Medium

Upper

Individual Mobility 2020

Future Mobility

Urbanization Society Technology Mobility Costs

Mixed Mobility

• Intermodal Driving

(time-efficient driving)

• Car Sharing

•Rental cars

Intra-Segment Shift Inter-Segment Shift

Modal Shift

Automotive Technology

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Individual Mobility 2020

1 Drivers & Trends

2 Mobility Behaviour

3 Technology

3.1 Vehicle Motion and Safety

3.2 Vehicle Drive Train

4 Summary

Automotive Technology

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Mass Transport

• Public Transport

•Train

•Bus


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Individual Mobility 2020

Modal split in time series 1976 – 2008

Less by foot, more by car

� Modal split of trips in % of people aged ≥ 10 years

Modal split in %

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

KONTIV 1976 KONTIV 1982 1990 (ViZ) MOP 1998 MiD 2002 MiD 2008

Source: DIW – Verkehr in Zahlen, own calculations, until 1990 only West Germany

Automotive Technology

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Individual Mobility 2020

Summary Driving Behaviour

MID2002

Automotive Technology

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22

Motorized individual

traffic driver

Motorized individual

traffic passenger

By foot

Bike

Public transport

� 20% of households don’t have a car – 28 % own more than one car

� Main mobility chain is “Home – Work – Home”

� Average vehicle distance per day: 46 km*

� Garage as most frequent parking position (average for Germany: 58,6%):

< 2.000 habitants per location: 70% – > 500.000 habitants per location: 42%

� Number of vehicle trips in the USA is one of the highest world wide

� Average trip length is with 15 km one of the highest world wide

� Yearly driving range is more than 20.000 km

� USA have the highest annual vehicle distances

� China has one of the highest yearly mileage in Asia

� Japan has the lowest number of trips per day

� Average distance per day per vehicle: 48 km (China), 20 km (Japan)

*(50% P. < 28 km , 80% P.< 63 km)


Individual Mobility 2020

1 Drivers & Trends

2 Mobility Behaviour

3 Technology

3.1 Vehicle Motion and Safety

3.2 Vehicle Drive Train

4 Summary

Automotive Technology

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Individual Mobility 2020

Road safety in 2007 – a public health issue

Registered motor

vehicles [Mio]

91.2

294.0

255.7

18.2

159.8

Automotive Technology

87.9***

*** 2006

Road accidents

involving injuries [Mio]

Sources: Bosch UFO

0.83

1.29

1.75

0.21

0.33

0.42

6,639

42,485

41,059

6,166

81,649

114,590

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Fatalities Fatality risk

per vehicle

(fatalities within 30 days after accident)

1 : 13,700

1 : 6,900

1 : 6,200

1 : 3,000

1 : 2,000

1 : 770

Road safety in mature markets are slowly improving - in emerging markets we get a

large public health issue with rising motorization

Bosch pursues base line products for occupant safety and braking systems


Individual Mobility 2020

Road Traffic Accidents - USA

Relative changes in %

120%

110%

100%

90%

80%

70%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

US fatality rate is still high as compared to the overall falling accident rate –

safety remains a number one priority.

Automotive Technology

Registered vehicles

Accidents w/ injuries

Fatalities

Injured

Source: Traffic safety facts 2007

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Individual Mobility 2020

Example India: Road Traffic Accidents *

Relative changes

180%

160%

140%

120%

100%

Registered vehicles

Accidents w/ injuries

Fatalities

Injured

•Only data from year 2006 available

Preliminary data for 2007: 418.657 accidents, 114.590 fatalities (Source: Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India)

80%

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006

Automotive Technology Source: Datanet India Pvt. Ltd.; Ministry of Home Affairs, Govt. of India

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255 747 983

41 059

1 748 248

2 491 000

87 932 000

105 750

496 480

460 920

In India fatalities rising with the motorization degree of the country – the expected

over-proportional car park growth in the future will deteriorate further public health


Individual Mobility 2020

Safety

Comfort Agility

Automotive Technology

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Individual Mobility 2020

VMS – Vehicle Motion and Safety

Automotive Technology

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Individual Mobility 2020

1 Drivers & Trends

2 Mobility Behaviour

3 Technology

3.1 Vehicle Motion and Safety

3.2 Vehicle Drive Train

4 Summary

Automotive Technology

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Individual Mobility 2020

Higher Diversity – At Least Medium Term

Gasoline

Diesel

Gasoline

Diesel

Alternative

Fuels

Hybrid

Gasoline

HCCI

Diesel

Alternative

Fuels

Hybrid

Electrical /

Range Extender

1997 2015

Automotive Technology

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Electrical /

Range Extender

Electrical /

Battery

Electrical / Fuel

Cell

Electrical (Battery

/ Fuel Cell)


Automotive Technology

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28

Individual Mobility 2020

Higher Diversity – At Least Medium Term

Gasoline

Diesel

Gasoline

Diesel

Alternative

Fuels

Hybrid

Individual Mobility 2020

Automotive Technology

Gasoline

HCCI

Diesel

Alternative

Fuels

Hybrid

Electrical /

Range Extender

1997 2015

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Electrical /

Range Extender

Electrical /

Battery

Electrical / Fuel

Cell

Electrical (Battery

/ Fuel Cell)

CO 2 Emissions for Diesel & Gasoline Technologies

CO 2

[g/km]

Gasoline

packages

Gx

Diesel

packages

Dx

200

160

120

80

40

0

182

2.0l

200 Nm

-22% -29% -38%

142

G0 G1 G2 G2H D0 D1 D2 D3

1.4l

210 Nm

130

1.1l

200 Nm

112

1.1l

200+140 Nm

144

2.0l

340 Nm

1.6l

340 Nm

Gasoline Hybrid

Diesel

Compact Class (1400kg), 100kW, NEDC

-21% -38% -42% -47% -53%

-22%

112

-27%

105

1.6l

340 Nm

-33%

97

1.2l

~300 Nm

-40%

86

D3H

1.2l

300+140 Nm

G0: PFI ; G1: Direct injection, turbo, downsizing, idle start stop w/ recup., thermal management; G2: G1 + downsizing + var. valve lifting; G2H: G2 + hybrid

D0: Common rail system, turbo ; D1: D0 + opt. combustion + idle start stop w/ recup. + therm. management + downsizing + close pilot injection; D2: D1 + NOx-EGT; D3: D2 + downsizing

D3H: D3 + hybrid // Battery for hybrids: 1.0 kWh; E-Motor: 25 kW

Hybrid

Gasolines AND Clean Diesels provide potentials for further CO 2 reduction


CO 2 emissions [g/km]

Individual Mobility 2020

Final CO 2 Reduction by Vehicle Technology

200

160

120

80

40

0

G0

G2

G2H

Vehicle measures can push fuel consumption underneath 3 liter.

Automotive Technology

7.7 l/100 km

5.5

4.7

Power train

4.4 l/100 km

3.8 D3

Gasoline technology Diesel technology

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1

5

90g/km

Vehicle

VVT: Var. Valve Timing

VVL: Var. Valve Lift

Individual Mobility 2020

D0

D3H

5.4 l/100 km

3.6

3.2

Power train

Vehicle Energy Management

combustion engine

optimization

Fuel

energy

waste heat

recovery

3 Idling

Drive

1

2 3

2

Idling losses

Exhaust gas losses

6

demand-responsive

energy mgmt.

2 4

Mechanical work Propulsion

4

Thermal losses

5

reduction of

resistances

start/stop, hybrid,

electric traction

2.9 l/100 km

2,6

69g/km

Automotive Technology

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3

Mechanical work

Losses of

drivetrain

Cooling system,

Radiation

7

6

Auxiliaries

alternative

fuels

Braking

4

8

components

optimization

3

Driving

resistance

Aerodynamic

resistance

Rolling

resistance

Vehicle

influencing

driving behaviour

Storage

Management

Vehicle package

Roll resistance tires f R : -1/3

Weight: -10 %

c w : -14 %

Further potential:

- Gear box

Further measures Diesel:

- Combustion pressure control

- VVT, VVL, var. compression

- Bx-fuels

Vehicle weight 1400 kg, 100 kW,

NEDC; G0-G2,

D0-D3: MT/ G2H,D3H: AT

Vehicle Energy Management

Generator

Management

Load

Management


Individual Mobility 2020

“Electronic horizon” bundles information on routes,

traffic conditions and objects

Objects

C2XC

Objects

(Video, Radar)

digital Map

route

traffic

Automotive Technology

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Individual Mobility 2020

Automotive Technology

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32 exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

WGS84

Koordinaten

dynamic

electronic horizon

valuable information for new functionality

and future CO2 reduction

Higher Diversity – At Least Medium Term

Gasoline

Diesel

Gasoline

Diesel

Alternative

Fuels

Hybrid

Gasoline

HCCI

Diesel

Alternative

Fuels

Hybrid

Electrical /

Range Extender

1997 2015

Electrical /

Range Extender

Electrical /

Battery

Electrical / Fuel

Cell

Electrical (Battery

/ Fuel Cell)


Individual Mobility 2020

Migration Path for Power Train Electrification

Hybrid

Combustion engine

E-Motor

Plug-In Hybrid

Combustion engine

E-Motor

Automotive Technology

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Individual Mobility 2020

Electric Vehicle with

Range Extender

E-Motor

Combustion engine

as generator

Automotive Technology

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Electric Vehicle

E-Motor

Fuel-Cell Vehicle

E-Motor

CO 2 Emissions and Source of Electrical Energy

Well-to-Tank

Tank-to-Wheels

Well-to-Wheels

Electricity

Renewable Energy

Out of hard coal

Mixture in Germany

Gasoline

Diesel

Bio-Diesel (rape)

Bio-Ethanol (wheat)

Bio-Ethanol (sugar cane / Brazil)

Cellulosic Bio-Ethanol

Source: shell scenarios 2030


Individual Mobility 2020

Reduced Energy Consumption necessary for EV

Energy Consumption [kWh/100km]* City cycle incl. Real-Life-Conditions

30

Energy consumption today

0,22 - 0,25 kWh/km

Optimization

20

10

0

Significant Energy consumption from Air conditioning and Auxiliaries

Cooperate development of the whole System mandatory

Automotive Technology

Auxiliaries &

Heating / Cooling

Brakes

Powertrain losses

Roll resistance

Aerodynamics

� Highly efficient Thermal Systems

Recuperation � High Power conversion

� OEM: Reduction Vehicle weight

� Use of efficient Engines and

Electronics

� OEM: Use of low resistance tires

� OEM: Aerodyn. Optimized Body

* Vehicle weight 1000kg, A=2m 2

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Individual Mobility 2020

EV Fundamentals for Energy Management

e-Drive

(Inverter w/ DC/DC, SMG)

Evaluation and definition

of best drive topology

(e.g. number of gears)

E/E-Architecture

Reduced number of ECUs

Thermal Systems

Minimize energy consumption

of HVAC

(e.g. climate control seats)

Braking + Vehicle Dynamics

- Recuperation with electric drives

Application of ESP + ABS

Vacuum-less brake required

Target: best trade off between weight, efficiency and cost

Automotive Technology

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36 exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

Energy consumption Target

0,08 - 0,15 kWh/km

Battery

Increase energy density

at attractive cost level

Charger

on-board charging capability

Infrastructure

i.e. fast charger,

battery change station,

vehicle to grid etc.


Individual Mobility 2020

Li-Ion-Battery – Energy Density and Lifetime

100.000

Power Density in W/kg

10.000

1.000

100

10

DLC*

Pb-Acid

Ni-MH

Li-Ion

High Power

Li-Ion

High Energy

1

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

* double-layer capacitor

** depth of discharge

Energy Density in Wh/kg

*** ZEBRA – ZEolite Battery Research Africa Project – Na-NiCl High Temperatre Battery

Automotive Technology

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37 exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

Individual Mobility 2020

Lifetime:

2.000 Cycles @ 100% dod**

300.000 Cycles @ 3% dod

Lifetime:

ZEBRA***

300 Cycles @ 100% dod**

5.000 Cycles @ 3% dod

Automotive Technology

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Target area with

improved material

100CRate

10CRate

1CRate

Lifetime:

0.1CRate

5.000 Cycles @ 100% dod**

1 Mio. Cycles @ 3% dod

0.01CRate

220 240 260

Gasoline: 11500 Wh/kg!


Individual Mobility 2020

World market trend for alternative drive systems

Volume in millions of vehicles

20

15

10

5

0

0.65

Indi

vidu

al

Mob 5.0

ility

4.15 202

0

2008 2020*

Automotive Technology

Confidential | C/AI-Vikas | 11/05/2009 | ALI116091105 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal,

39 exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

Individual Mobility 2020

0.2

1 Drivers & Trends

2 Mobility Behaviour

3 Technology

19.2

3.0

6.0

8.65 10.2

3.1 Vehicle Motion and Safety

3.2 Vehicle Drive Train

4 Summary

Automotive Technology

Confidential | C/AI-Vikas | 11/05/2009 | ALI116091105 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal,

40 exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

Electric vehicle + Plug-in hybrid

Hybrid electric vehicle

Others (FlexFuel, CNG, LPG)

* estimated 100 million

produced vehicles worldwide


Individual Mobility 2020

Summary

� The link between driver assistant systems, communication systems and

traditional safety systems brings us close to the autonomous driving

� Internal combustion engine will dominate at least for the next 20 years.

Bio-fuels can extend this dominant period significant

� New technologies (e.g. battery) need strong collaboration between

suppliers and OEM to bundle volume and to reduce the cost

� EV doesn’t mean only electrical drive train development. It requests

know how in new vehicle concepts:

light weight, aerodynamic, air conditioning, intelligent energy management

and active safety

Automotive Technology

Confidential | C/AI-Vikas | 11/05/2009 | ALI116091105 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal,

41 exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

Individual Mobility 2020

Thank you for your attention

Automotive Technology

Confidential | C/AI-Vikas | 11/05/2009 | ALI116091105 | © Robert Bosch GmbH 2009. All rights reserved, also regarding any disposal,

42 exploitation, reproduction, editing, distribution, as well as in the event of applications for industrial property rights.

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