handout - Daina Chiba

dynaman.net

handout - Daina Chiba

Table 1: Models of the onset of militarized interstate disputes, fatal disputes, and war, 1885–2001

(1) (2) (3)

allmids fatalmids wars

Lower democracy -0.069 ∗∗∗ -0.096 ∗∗∗ -0.162 ∗∗∗

(0.008) (0.017) (0.030)

Higher democracy 0.038 ∗∗∗ 0.038 ∗∗∗ 0.043

(0.007) (0.011) (0.024)

Lower trade-to-GDP ratio -32.262 ∗∗∗ -95.833 ∗∗∗ -45.763

(8.987) (25.895) (26.878)

Allies 0.075 -0.199 -0.562

(0.101) (0.178) (0.346)

Capability ratio (log) -0.284 ∗∗∗ -0.410 ∗∗∗ -0.754 ∗∗∗

(0.030) (0.049) (0.096)

Contiguous 1.127 ∗∗∗ 1.151 ∗∗∗ 0.982 ∗∗

(0.152) (0.249) (0.357)

Distance (log) -0.289 ∗∗∗ -0.466 ∗∗∗ -0.365 ∗

(0.053) (0.081) (0.161)

Major power 1.007 ∗∗∗ 1.118 ∗∗∗ 2.240 ∗∗∗

(0.133) (0.227) (0.398)

Constant -0.489 -0.643 -3.176 ∗

(0.406) (0.618) (1.267)

Observations 464953 464692 464953

Log lik. -8118.156 -2926.785 -757.367

Chi-squared 3861.950 1345.308 472.660

Standard errors in parentheses

∗ p < 0.05, ∗∗ p < 0.01, ∗∗∗ p < 0.001

6

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