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BFW-Studie - European Union of Developers and House Builders

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<strong>BFW</strong>-Study<br />

At the same time it can be seen that demographic change as well as associated modifications<br />

in the area <strong>of</strong> the development business in particular are rated differently depending<br />

on the country concerned or are already supported by practical measures.<br />

The results <strong>of</strong> the survey confirm that the age structure is shifting in all <strong>European</strong> countries.<br />

In particular the proportion <strong>of</strong> people aged over 65 will rise due to higher life expectancy.<br />

Both improved basic medical care <strong>and</strong> increased living st<strong>and</strong>ards are indicators for<br />

this. The proportions will rise to approximately 35 percent in Spain <strong>and</strong> Italy in particular.<br />

Across Europe the share <strong>of</strong> over 65ers will move up from the current approx 17 to 28 percent<br />

in 2020. In Turkey the current level <strong>of</strong> around 5 percent is the lowest, but the relative<br />

rise to approx 18 percent will be the highest by 2050.<br />

The growing proportion <strong>of</strong> older people is the counterpoint to low birth rates. Fertility, as<br />

an influencing factor <strong>of</strong> natural population growth, has fallen below the required replacement<br />

level in most industrialised countries since the 1970s. The population is declining<br />

over the long term below this level. At present, only Turkey reaches the desirable level <strong>of</strong><br />

approximately 2.1 births per woman. France <strong>and</strong> Irel<strong>and</strong> also approach this limit very closely<br />

with birth rates <strong>of</strong> approximately 1.9.<br />

The governments <strong>of</strong> all countries have recognised the problem <strong>of</strong> decreasing birth rates<br />

<strong>and</strong> rising life expectancy <strong>and</strong> are adopting measures to cope with the tasks arising out <strong>of</strong><br />

these developments. In particular incentives are being <strong>of</strong>fered to young families to increase<br />

birth rates. In addition to child allowances <strong>and</strong> extra kindergarten places, tax relief is<br />

being granted, frequently depending on the number <strong>of</strong> children born. Measures are also<br />

being adopted to secure senior citizens financially. These include housing subsidyprogrammes,<br />

work initiatives for senior citizens, the stabilisation <strong>of</strong> pension systems as well<br />

as assured social security. In particular, the supply <strong>of</strong> buildings represents an important<br />

Turkey<br />

France<br />

Irel<strong>and</strong><br />

Norway<br />

United Kingdom<br />

Finl<strong>and</strong><br />

Denmark<br />

Sweden<br />

Netherl<strong>and</strong>s<br />

Belgium<br />

Luxembourg<br />

EU (25 countries)<br />

Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />

Croatia<br />

Austria<br />

Portugal<br />

Italy<br />

Spain<br />

Germany<br />

Romania<br />

Hungary<br />

Greece<br />

Czech Republic<br />

Pol<strong>and</strong><br />

Birth Rates<br />

– Births per woman –<br />

0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50<br />

Source: Eurostat 2007, <strong>BFW</strong>-Research<br />

22 <strong>BFW</strong>-Study 2007

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