Five Year Financial Forecast

naperville203

Five%20Year%20Financial%20Forecast%202-6-17

Five Year Financial Forecast

February 6, 2017

1


Key Points

• D203 Projects Balanced Budgets

• Anticipated Declining Tax Rate

• On Track to Payoff Bonds

– Results in Permanent Tax Abatement

– Taxpayer Savings of $3.2 Million

• Tentative Recommendation to Abate Debt

Service Levy

• 2016 Tax Levy – Avg. Taxpayer Saves $40

2


Committee Feedback

• Carefully monitor CPI

• EAV growth expected between 2% and

3% - use 3% for model

• New growth $37M – plan for 5% decline

• Support repurchase of 2008 bonds

• Support levy to full extent allowed

• Support considering new programs and

services for students

3


Changes to the Forecast

• Updated CPI for 2016, 2017 & 2018

• Removed the TRS cost shift

• Updated the estimated DLI computer

lease payment

• Updated Salary & Benefits affected by CPI

• Accumulated change in fund balance

$10.96M ↑ from prior base model

4


The Calculators

• Revenue – 89% of estimated receipts

– PTELL / Property Taxes

– GSA

– CPPRT

• Expenditures – 77% of estimated expenses

– Salary

– FTE Changes

– Benefits (Health, TRS, IMRF, SS, & Life)

5


Revenue - Sensitivity

• CPI: 1% ∆ ≈ +/- $2.34 million

• New Property: $1 million ∆ ≈ +/- $52,000

• Proration of GSA: 1% ∆ ≈ +/- $65,000

6


Prior Revenue Assumptions –

Property Taxes

7


Updated Revenue Assumptions –

Property Taxes

8


9


10


Expenditures - Sensitivity

• Salaries: 1% ∆ ≈ +/- $1.50 million

• Employee Health/Dental/Life: 1% ∆ ≈ +/-

$258,000

• TRS pension reform: each 1% ≈ $1.25

million

11


12


13


14


BUDGET

REVENUE / EXPENDITURE PROJECTIONS

FY 2017 FY 2018 % ∆ FY 2019 % ∆ FY 2020 % ∆ FY 2021 % ∆ FY 2022 % ∆

REVENUE

Local $243,436,041 $247,330,046 1.60% $254,295,414 2.82% $261,700,937 2.91% $268,494,338 2.60% $274,568,609 2.26%

State $19,617,610 $19,467,896 -0.76% $19,253,306 -1.10% $18,998,170 -1.33% $18,828,368 -0.89% $18,683,723 -0.77%

Federal $7,515,240 $7,562,940 0.63% $7,522,940 -0.53% $7,481,940 -0.54% $7,438,940 -0.57% $7,395,940 -0.58%

Other $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

TOTAL REVENUE $270,568,891 $274,360,882 1.40% $281,071,660 2.45% $288,181,047 2.53% $294,761,646 2.28% $300,648,272 2.00%

EXPENDITURES

Salary and Benefit Costs $201,306,370 $204,872,892 1.77% $209,951,761 2.48% $214,995,087 2.40% $220,070,346 2.36% $225,313,377 2.38%

Other $59,256,643 $69,251,768 16.87% $59,618,942 -13.91% $59,876,902 0.43% $60,140,729 0.44% $60,420,728 0.47%

TOTAL EXPENDITURES $260,563,013 $274,124,660 5.20% $269,570,703 -1.66% $274,871,988 1.97% $280,211,075 1.94% $285,734,104 1.97%

SURPLUS / DEFICIT $10,005,878 $236,222 $11,500,957 $13,309,059 $14,550,571 $14,914,168

OTHER FINANCING SOURCES/USES

Other Financing Sources $4,122,000 $13,995,000 $4,125,000 $4,128,000 $4,138,000 $4,146,000

Other Financing Uses ($4,122,000) ($13,995,000) ($4,125,000) ($4,128,000) ($4,138,000) ($4,146,000)

TOTAL OTHER FIN. SOURCES/USES $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0

SURPLUS / DEFICIT INCL. OTHER FIN. SOURCES $10,005,878 $236,222 $11,500,957 $13,309,059 $14,550,571 $14,914,168

BEGINNING FUND BALANCE $174,082,496 $184,088,374 $184,324,597 $195,825,554 $209,134,613 $223,685,184

PROJECTED YEAR END BALANCE $184,088,374 $184,324,597 $195,825,554 $209,134,613 $223,685,184 $238,599,352

15

FUND BALANCE AS % OF EXPENDITURES 70.65% 67.24% 72.64% 76.08% 79.83% 83.50%

FUND BALANCE AS # OF MONTHS OF EXPEND. 8.48 8.07 8.72 9.13 9.58 10.02


16


17


18

Questions

More magazines by this user