Investment Assignment (Final Version)

Investment Analysis Report
Team members
Mohamed Mostafa Kadous Maram Ibrahim Habashy
Ali Nageh Ali Atallah
Maram Ali Abd Elaziz
Monika Wafik Berty

Axis Title
Task 1: Economic Analysis
Statistics for 2020 Statistics for 2021
Sector Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Growth in GDP 5.60% 5.60% 5% -1.70% 0.70% 2% 2.90% 7.70%
Interest Rate 9.80% 9.10% 8.60% 8.30% 9.50% 9.40% 9.30% 9.50%
Inflation 5.86% 5.40% 3.75% 5.22% 4.41% 4.62% 5.90% 6.24%
Unemployment 7.70% 9.60% 7.30% 7.20% 7.40% 7.30% 7.50% 7.40%
egx30 -26.25% 5.33% -3.31% -0.90% -8.30% -0.51% -5.62% 4.86%
exchange rate -2.33% 0.15% 0.80% -1.65% 0.23% -0.27% -0.17% 0.38%
GDP
Egypt’s gross domestic product (GDP) at market price and current prices
increased during the Q4 of the fiscal year 2020/2021 to reach EGP 1.507 trillion,
compared to EGP 1.326 trillion in Q4 of FY2019/2020 According to the ministry of
planning and economic development. As the national income decreased in
general in 2020, especially in the last quarter due to the Corona virus(covid-19)
and the effects of quarantine, In 2021, it gradually began to grow and recover,
especially in the last quarter, due to the return of economic activities, the
abolition of quarantine, the easing of precautionary measures and the opening of
the economy.
EGX30-GDP
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
-25.00%
-30.00%
Growth in GDP
Axis Title
egx30
1

Interest rate
According to the Central Bank of Egypt, the interest rate gradually decreased
due to the stagnation resulting from the Corona pandemic in 2020, and then
became partially stable due to the partial recovery of the economy in 2021, as the
last quarter in 2021 increased by 1.2 compared to the fourth quarter in 2020 .
15.00%
EGX30-Interest rate
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
-25.00%
-30.00%
Interest Rate
egx30
Inflation
According to the Central Bank of Egypt, where in general the inflation rate
decreased gradually in 2020 due to the Corona pandemic, then it increased in
2021 until it reached about in the fourth quarter 6.24% due to the partial
recovery of the Egyptian economy.
10.00%
EGX30-Inflation
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
-25.00%
-30.00%
Inflation
egx30
2

UNEMPLOYMENT
According to the ministry of planning and economic development, the
unemployment rate in Egypt increased by 0.2 percentage points in 4th quarter in
2021 in comparison to the 4th quarter in the previous year. Over the observed
period, the unemployment rate has been subject to fluctuation.
15.00%
EGX30-Unemployment
10.00%
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
-25.00%
-30.00%
Unemployment
egx30
EGX30
According to the data of the Egyptian Stock Exchange, there has been a
deterioration in the performance of companies in the performance of EGX30,
from the third quarter of 2020 to the third quarter of 2021, due to the Corona
pandemic, then it recovered starting from the fourth quarter of 2021.
10.00%
5.00%
egx30
0.00%
-5.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
-25.00%
3
-30.00%

Exchange rate
According to google, exchange rate was decreasing in 2020 in general as exports
of necessary goods decreased and it was still decreasing till third quarter of
2021,and it began to increasing due to partial recovery of the Egyptian economy.
10.00%
EGX30-Exchange rate
5.00%
0.00%
-5.00%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
-25.00%
-30.00%
egx30
exchange rate
4

1)Market Share
Task 2
banks
market shares
Al Bank Al Ahly 33%
Banque Misr 17.95%
Commercial International Bank 5.90%
QNB 3.96%
Banque du Caire 2.86%
Arab African International Bank 2.73%
Faisal Islamic Bank 1.55%
Alex Bank 1.35%
EGBANK 1%
Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank-ADIB 0.98%
Al Baraka Islamic Bank 0.97%
SAIB BANK 0.90%
Export Development Bank-EBE 0.88%
National Bank of Kuwait-NBK 0.84%
Emirates NBD Bank 0.81%
HDB-HD 0.73%
Ahli United Bank 0.69%
Credit Agricole Egypt 0.68%
Suez Canal Bank 0.62%
Al Ahli Bank of Kuwait-ABK 0.62%
Abu Dhabi Commercial ADCB 0.53%
According to Egyptian exchange 2020/2021, the most leading bank in the banking sector in
Egypt is Al Bank Al Ahly as it represents 33% of the total market share. Banque Misr came in
second place with nearly 17.95% of total market share. The Commercial International Bank
came in third place with 5.90% of market share. The least leading bank is Abu Dhabi
Commercial ADCB as it came with only 0.53% of market share.
5

MARKET SHARE(%)
5.90% 3.96% 2.86% 2.73% 1.55% 1.35% 1% 0.98% 0.97% 0.90% 0.88% 0.84% 0.81% 0.73% 0.69% 0.68% 0.62% 0.62% 0.53%
Growth Rate %
Market Shares of banks in Egypt
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
33%
10%
5%
17.95%
b
0%
BANKS
2)Growth Industry Index
Index 2020 2021
EGX30 -16.80% 10.17%
EGX100 -10% 5.08%
Banking growth index -3.09% 3.38%
5.00%
EGX30-Industry Index
0.00%
-5.00%
EGX30
banking index
-10.00%
-15.00%
-20.00%
Years
6
2020 2021

growth rate %
from 2020 to 2021, Egx30 increased by 26.97% and so banking growth index was a part of this
increase as it increased by 6.47%.
egx100
EgX100-Banking Industry Index
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
EGX100
5.08%
3.38%
banking index
-3.09%
-6%
-8%
-10%
-10%
-12%
years
2020 2021
from 2020 to 2021, Egx100 increased by 15.08% and so banking growth index was a part of this
increase as it increased by 6.47%.
3)market phase:
phase of the industry growth-cycle is the banking industry currently as CBE (Central Bank of
Egypt) says banking sector managed to sustain a high level of financial stability despite the
repercussions of covid 19 pandemic.
7

1)Stock Classification
Task 3: Fundamental analysis
According to the Egyptian exchange, commercial international bank (CIB) stock is
classified as speculative stock in A group which gives overall medium dividends level.
Despite the multiplicity of opinions, all the institutions responsible for the classification agreed
that it was classified as B and above (speculative stock). And it's stable now.
2)Financial ratios
data 2018 2019 2020 2021
current assets 59.903B 59.098B 59.548B 68.937B
current liabilities 48.65B 52.15B 58.50B 63.61B
net profits after tax 0.43B 0.51B 0.05B 0.66B
total assets 66.03B 70.863B 76.67B 86.96B
stockholders' equity 8B 8.64B 8.44B 10.18B
price of common stock 32.69$ 48.11$ 37.33$ 29.57$
dividends per share 1.14$ 1.06$ 1.39$ 0.22$
earnings per share 3.66$ 3.95$ 0.26$ 4.42$
number of common shares outstanding 240B 240B 128B 128B
book value per share 33.26$ 35.94$ 35.08$ 42.33$
long term dept 6.086$ 5.976$ 5.738$ 8.894$
Sales revenue 6.1848$ 6.697$ 6.508$ 6.576B
Dividend yield 3.52% 2.19% 3.69% 0.76%
8

ratios 2018 2019 2020 2021
current ratio 1.23 1.13 1.02 1.08
Total assets turnover 9.37% 9.45% 8.49% 7.56%
Net profit margin 6.95% 7.62% 0.77% 10.04%
return on assets (ROA) 0.60% 0.73% 0.07% 0.81%
return on equity (ROE) 5.04% 6.06% 0.61% 7%
Price to Earnings ratio (P/E) 8.93% 12.18% 143.57% 6.69%
payout Ratio 0.30% 0.27% 5.35% 0.05%
book value per share 33.26$ 35.94$ 35.08$ 42.33$
price to book value ratio 0.98 1.34 1.06 0.7
debt equity ratio 0.76 0.69 0.68 0.87
Current ratio: the liquidity of the bank was decreasing till 2020 because of corona pandemic.
And it restored back its recovery to increase again in 2021 achieving higher liquidity.
Total assets turnover: it increased by 0.08 % from 2018 to 2019 indicating that CIB was using its
assets efficiently, and it decreased by 1.89% from 2019 to 2021 indicating lower efficiency of
using assets to generate sales
Return on assets (ROA): it was increasing normally in 2018 and 2019 and it decreased in 2020
due to corona and it began to be stable again in 2021.
Return on equity (ROE): it was increasing normally in 2018 and 2019 and it decreased in 2020
due to corona and it began to be stable again in 2021.
Price to Earnings ratio (P/E): it was increasing during 2018/2019 as the price of the stock was
increasing and Investors would like to find stocks with rising P/E ratios. In 2020 the P/E was
relatively very high may be a signal that the stock is becoming overvalued and ready to fall and
this happened in 2021 when the stock price decreased as well as P/E.
payout Ratio: in 2020 it reached the highest value because the bank’s earning was falling
because of corona pandemic and caused rise in dividend payout ratio.
book value per share: in 2018 the stock was being sold at a price that was higher its book value
and that was optimum position while it was in 2019/2020, it was being sold at a price lower
than its book value and indicated a problem in the bank’s total assets and liabilities (the stock
was overpriced). In 2021, it returned to the optimum position (the stock price was lower than
its book value.
price to book value ratio: in 2018, the stock was at faired price as its price-to-book-value ratio
was less than one while it was in 2019/2020, the stock was overpriced as its price-to-bookvalue
ratio was more than one. In 2021, it returned stable again to be less than one.
debt equity ratio: Lower or declining ratio indicates lower risk exposure, and it happened till
2020. While it started to increase in 2021 when the Egyptian economy recovered partially. It
increased indicating a rise in funds provide by lenders and the bank could operate these funds.
9

Net profit margin: from 2018 to 2019 it increased by 0.67% indicating success in the bank
operations due to increased profits to sales. From 2019 to 2020, it decreased by 6.85% due to
Covid-19. From 2020 to 2021, it increased by 9.27% due to partial recovery of the Egyptian
economy.
3) CBE Industry ratios
ratios of central bank 2018 2019 2020 2021
return on asset (ROA) 1.40% 1.80% 1.20% 1.20%
Leverage ratio 6.3% 7.1% 7.7% 7.2%
return on equity (ROE) 19.20% 23.40% 14.90% 16.21%
Return on assets (ROA): In the banking sector, ROA increased by 0.4% from 2018 to 2019, and
the Commercial International Bank was among this increase by 0.13%.
From 2019 to 2020, ROA decreased in overall banking sector by 0.6% and CIB was part of this
decrease as its ROA decreased by 0.66%
Form2020 to 2021, ROA remained stable in overall banking sector recording 1.20% while ROA
of CIB increased by 0.74% indicating higher efficiency in using the Banks’s assets.
Return on Equity (ROE): In the banking sector, ROE increased by 4.2% from 2018 to 2019, and
the Commercial International Bank was among this increase by 1.02%.
From 2019 to 2020, ROE decreased in overall banking sector by 8.5% and CIB was part of this
decrease as its ROA decreased by 5.45%
From 2020 to 2021, ROE increased by 1.31%, and the Commercial International Bank was
among this increase by 6.39%.
Leverage ratio: for CIB ,2018 to 2019 debt equity decreased by 0.07% while banking sector
increased by 0.8%. from 2019 to 2020 increased by 0.01% and banking increased by 0.6%. From
2020 to 2021, CIB increased by 0.19% and banking sector decreased by 0.5%.
10

price $
Task 4: Technical Analysis
1)stock piece data
price of common stock
60
50
48.11
40
30
32.69
37.33
29.57
20
10
0
2018 2019 2020 2021
years
2)detecting abnormal situations
the bank’s stock price reached its highest value 48.11$ in 2019 as its price to book value was at
maximum recording 1.34 showing that the stock was overpriced, and the price was ready to
fall. Also because of covid-19 pandemic the price of the stock deteriorated to 37.33 in 2020
then to 29.57 in 2021 as the demand on the stock decreased and most of the shareholders was
selling their stocks as they want to increase their liquidness causing over supply of the stock
which led a heavy deterioration in the stock price. As the International Finance Corporation
announced on July 5, 2020, that it provided a loan of up to $ 100 million to the Commercial
International Bank (CIB) to enhance its support for its corporate clients due to the disruption of
their cash flows due to the Corona pandemic, to ensure the continued flow of financing
resources and will help in the rapid recovery of the Commercial International Bank. As the share
price decrease in general is due from October 2020 to October 2021 due to the dismissal of the
Chairman of the Board of Directors and his assistants due to his violation of Article 144 of the
Central Bank of Egypt Law for the year 2020 due to the leaking of a letter to the Central Bank of
11

Egypt with the signature of the Chairman of the Board of Directors, which led to the suspension
of trading On the stock and bonds temporarily, which led to a decline in the EGX30 by 0.03%.
3)Comparing by EGX30, EGX100
Variables Year 2019 2020 2021 2022
Average EGX30 13,812 10,885 10,932 11,015
Average EGX100 2,183 2,332 3,350 2,996
Price of common stock 48.11 37.33 29.57 31.4
By EGX30
Correlation: 0.908331 between egx30 and the price of the stock
Egx30 and the stock price are strongly and positively related to each other whereas the price
decreased between 2019 and 2020 and so egx30 decreased in the period. When the stock price
started to increase again in 2022, the egx30 increased highly.
EGX30-Stock price
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
1 2 3 4
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Averege EGX30
Price of common stock
By EGX100
Correlation: -0.89199 between egx100 and the price of the stock.
12

Egx100 and the stock price are strongly and negatively related to each other whereas the price
decreased between 2019 and 2020 and so egx100 increased in the period. When the stock
price started to increase again in 2022, the egx100 decreased.
EGX100-Stock price
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
1 2 3 4
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Averege EGX100
Price of common stock
Task 5: Mutual Fund
Comparison between Aman,Istithmar,Osoul,Thabat,Hemaya,Takamol:
variable Aman Fund Istethmar
Category equity fund / Islamic fund Equity Fund
Dividends 24.72% 2021 23.51% 2021
Inception Date Wednesday, March 1, 2006 Saturday, April 1, 2006
Daily Subscription Except working Daily Subscription Except last
Subscription & Redemption
day. Weekly Redemption on the working Day. Weekly Redemption
first working day.
on the first working Day.
NAV value (19/12/2022) 142.71 270.08
Change in NAV value
Fund Manager Abdelkader Ashraf Abdelkader Ashraf
Fund Size at Inception EGP 100 million EGP 100 million
Seed Capital N/A N/A
Initial NAV per certificate
Min. Subscription 1 Investment Certificates 1 Investment Certificates
Asset Allocation equity &sukuk 95%
95% Equities & Single stock
Exposure.
Subscription/Redemption Fees 0.25%/0.25% 0.25% / Zero
13

variable Osoul Thabat
Category Money Market Fund Fixed income fund
Dividends 9.5% 2021 10.37% 2021
Inception Date Monday, April 25, 2005 Monday, September 5, 2011
Subscription & Redemption
Daily until 12:00 noon
Daily subscription and monthly
redemption.
NAV value (19/12/2022) 553.54 389.75
Change in NAV value 44.05 35.02
Fund Manager Shady Osman Shady Osman
Fund Size at Inception
EGP 500 million
Seed Capital N/A N/A
Initial NAV per certificate
Min. Subscription 1 Investment Certificates 250 Investment certificates
Asset Allocation
Bank Deposit 8.67% /T Bills 84.39%
T.Bonds 0.78% / Corporate Bonds
0.81% / Cash 5.35 %.
treasury bonds 95%
time deposits 25%
Subscription & Redemption
Fees Zero Zero
variable Hemaya Takamol
Category Capital Protected Fund Balanced Fund
Dividends 12.94% 2021 17.73% 2021
Inception Date 2010 Friday, May 1, 2015
Subscription & Redemption
Monthly subscription/Redemption
on the last 5 working day.
Daily Subscription & Weekly
Redemption on the first working
Day.
NAV value (19/12/2022) 328.38 at 1-12-2022 260.75
Change in NAV value
Fund Manager Abdelkader Ashraf/Shady Osman Abdelkader Ashraf
Fund Size at Inception EGP 100 million EGP 100 million
Seed Capital N/A N/A
Initial NAV per certificate
Min. Subscription 1 Investment Certificates 100 Investment Certificates
Asset Allocation
Treasury Bonds & Bills 75%
Equity Exposure 25%
Fixed income Exposure
Subscription & Redemption
Fees 0.25%/0.25% Zero
14