瀏覽全文資料PDF(2166k) - 國家政策研究基金會

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瀏覽全文資料PDF(2166k) - 國家政策研究基金會

1.9.88.18.58.586.54.932.62.61953-2000 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s2


1953 – 2000 8.1 7.73.95.6 3


5.34.25.5 5.54.75.38.59.525.74


4.19761987199923.595.8 99.31.515.554.567.478.6 84.9()()()5


0200400600800100012001400160014002000620.4361917901147 1106307.5201.0161.0672.1.1116.61484.0547.21085.81970 1980 1985 1990 199520014147.7


19532000 2.0%34.5%19.4%46.1%32.4%65.6%7


7.19869512000271424.0%40.4%35.6%18.1%47.9%34.0%8


7.19862000399148418.4%33.7% 14.4%43.3%42.3%9


GNPUS$50NT$2019 GNPUS$188( )11( )


31449171484 GNPUS$14,216(NT$443967) GNPUS$117038114003148.13.93.0 ( % )12


60 70 80 13


1. ( ) () () () () ()() ( ) 1986 11.6 10.3 11.0 10.1 10.0 399 29.7 242 20.3 157 47.6 -3.3 0.7 2.66 463.11987 12.7 18.6 11.4 11.3 24.1 537 34.7 350 44.7 187 19.2 -3.3 0.5 1.97 767.51988 7.8 14.6 21.8 -0.8 17.6 607 13.0 497 42.0 110 -41.2 -1.6 1.3 1.69 739.01989 8.2 14.8 20.7 21.4 10.8 663 9.3 523 5.2 140 27.7 -0.4 4.4 1.57 732.21990 5.4 7.6 24.5 36.6 -7.9 672 1.4 547 4.7 125 -11.0 -0.6 4.1 1.67 724.41991 7.6 9.2 23.0 6.6 3.7 762 13.3 629 14.9 133 6.6 0.2 3.6 1.51 824.11992 7.5 18.5 13.5 2.2 29.3 815 7.0 720 14.5 95 -28.9 -3.7 4.5 1.51 823.11993 7.0 12.0 18.1 -8.4 16.7 851 4.4 771 7.0 80 -15.1 2.5 2.9 1.45 835.71994 7.1 7.4 13.2 -11.9 10.3 930 9.3 853 10.8 77 -4.1 2.2 4.1 1.56 924.51995 6.4 7.3 3.2 -0.4 11.4 1,117 20.0 1,036 21.3 81 5.3 7.4 3.7 1.79 903.11996 6.1 1.7 -0.3 -2.0 3.4 1,159 3.9 1,024 -1.1 136 67.4 -1.0 3.1 2.60 880.41997 6.7 10.7 0.5 -4.3 18.6 1,221 5.3 1,144 11.8 77 -43.6 -0.5 0.9 2.72 835.01998 4.6 8.0 0.1 4.4 11.8 1,106 -9.4 1,047 -8.5 59 -22.7 0.6 1.7 2.69 903.01999 5.4 1.8 3.6 13.3 -0.7 1,216 10.0 1,107 5.8 109 84.8 -4.5 0.2 2.92 1,062.02000 6.0 7.8 -3.5 -1.9 13.7 1,484 22.0 1,400 26.5 84 -23.3 1.8 1.3 2.99 1,067.415


%573.5368.1946.0484.92224.11518.81100.41793.11681.71345.756.559.560.264.365.867.570.574.077.681.8 17


4.1986159213%1986 3992000 14841650P.15% 49.853.654.961.364.368.269.771.37479 18


12 19


1.20


3.13.13.17.17.88.8---6.45.54.80.3-13.14.7-72.2161.7-122.13.03.22.45.4-7.57.5-58.286.9-96.56.36.82.610.7-5.85.015.9265.8-95.34.24.41.54.2-10.2-1.7-37.795.9-88.09.710.18.73.3-0.65.2-58.226.2-74.63.53.21.85.40.48.010.5134.2-61.96.34.72.23.1-5.35.011.398.2-43.84.74.13.40.2-2.51.63.956.7-41.52.92.72.75.44.66.7-17.821.3-35.519991998199719991998199719976199912199861999121997619986 2.21


4.62.70.43.2-0.610.1-2.54.1-5.34.7-5.86.8-7.53-10.24.4-13.15.522


3. (1) (2) (3) (4) (Venture Capital)(5) 23


2468354342184546093426213791811544211( 1 9 9 7 )24


5.4-6.2-3.7-6.21.5-1.7( 1990-1996 )25


2000 200096,85960,21952,49350,5405.98 12,620 15,260 13.685.55 1.87 2,3214,98917.3314.86-1.91 -3.49 28


2000 19991220001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 20011 229


20002. 5.987.925.436.634.085.557.655.625.023.831.87-6.17-9.5113.2513.3213.6818.4127.1317.47-0.56 -1.91-3.95-26.19-0.8228.01-3.49-4.05-16.0911.58-0.3217.3314.8613.0311.6318.8818.3523.5221.7913.998.1530


200010.011.47.95.4 6.65.04.16.47.43.2 3.1 2.2-0.8-1.41.5 1.5 2.23.5 2.70.70.50.8 1.2-0.1 -0.3-2.0-2.7-3.6-4.0-5.3-8.8 -10.0 31


20003. 20009.90 %8.80 %10.50 %5.98 % 32


383223179 10126591. 200020014 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 533


2. 19969=100106.5105.2103.9103.3103.1 102.4100.4 99.9 98.7 97.69593.6 93.392.1200020014 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 534


3. 2000289123 3 200020011 2 3 45 6 7 8 910 11 121 2 3 4 5 35


649561641351432 3218 1726232624332917 183822342731274118372338343127792000200112 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 1212 3 4 536


4. 20001484140022.0 % 26.5 % ,24.2 % 1989522.6 %29.6 %19982 19993 50403020100-10-20-30-4025.618.439.727.634.529.99.313-17.212.1-15.1 0.2-1.8-11.3-13.1 -13.5 -22.6-29.637


151050-5-10-15-2011.7107.97.45. 20007.38 %1220011-5 5.29 %6.17 58.20%9.91%197511.710.91.51.8-15.31-16.29.539.42-3.93-5.13-5.91-6.25-9.91 -8.238


73 54.22 411185978 39


7. 2000 7 3% 5.823.24.44.3 4.5 3.8 3.9 3.93.54.74.25.53.25.03.35.83.42.74.3 4.4 4.02.82.72.82.93.13.13.23.944.22.72.93.23.70.50.91.11.21.61.41.40.31.612.31.72.40.40.4-1-0.2200020011 2 3 4 5 67 8 9 10 11121 2 34 540


%8. 12 63.2 % 6 65.1 1997 1997 1998 1998 1999 2000 2000 20016 12 6 12 12 520 12 61997641


19976 19976 9030.0 27.8 1997128187.0 -9.4 32.6 -14.7 -24.119986 7549.0 -16.3 34.4 -19.2 -35.519981219991220005202000126418.0 -28.9 32.2 -13.7 -42.68448.8 -6.3 31.4 -11.5 -17.88820.4 -2.3 30.6 -9.5 -11.84739.1 -47.4 33.0 -15.8 -63.220016 4833.4 -45.9 34.4 -19.2 -65.142


9.20016.84%0.641.0917.19 %300-50010 % 544506.4 %%2018161412.9413.714.8315.6817.191210869.628.31 8.537.14.15 4.27 4.18 4.4110.574.935.71 5.67 5.936.206.84420 43


10. 4 M1A-7.39%M1B-6.84 % 19912M25.03 % 41.12 % 17-1.19 % 59 M1A= ++M1B= M1A+M2=M1B+44


%6.566.486.016.035.695.55.745.2554.544.754.57 4.0245


2. 2001 1.06% 26 4.021.063.265.156.433.402.022.713.725.24-2.28-6.97-0.78-1.15-0.57-1.17-7.54-1.72-1.433.92 10.45-15.1723.4427.227.106.18-5.534.1911.1313.44-0.64-3.181.86-4.51-3.00-6.46-2.19-4.791.022.8846


%4.57 4.755.184.023.44.14.75.12.70.7 I M F 47


WTO48


28%20%18%15%13%6%(2001.5.19)49


14.8%12.2% 11.8% 11.4% 10.5%8.59%6.20%2.70% 2.10% 1.20%(2001.5.16)50


1.(IMF)520013.2 %6.7 %4.1%IMFWorld Economic OutlookOct.2000 ; May.200151


12.12001.5.429.92001.23.12001.312.12001.37.1-34.92001.5.45.52001.36.520004.52000.IV4.5-36.42001.5.4-6.92001.33.02000.IV0.52001.3 6.0-19.32001.5.43.92001.33.72000.11-1.82001.35.0-7.12001.5.4-4.02001.311.42001.16.02001.22.5-19.12001.5.4-0.22001.32.82000.126.52001.36.5-12.62001.5.4-1.42001.34.62001.3-0.22000.IV4.0-22.12001.5.4-1.82001.34.82001.36.22001.35.0-37.82001.5.4-11.32001.43.892001.3-4.42001.34.0252


%4.50%3.70%2.50%1.06% 53


48.137.933.130.716.623.25.610.1 11.221.4 20.1 20.913.233.125.623.5 %55


40353035292520151515105240 (2001.5.19)56


%2564454248503911483589 90 90621 724 825 104 1027 1028 419 51757


1413958872001/2/1315160492001/2/214359362001/1/31122845552000/11/1013611154252000/10/2724761853046922000/9/3058


8257.886185.145805.176088.744797.146027.495847.075932.426049.265936.2 4555.9159


3.46.81 :% :%23.968.06 60


7.210.724.845.6 :%45.968.271.589.30 20 40 60 80 1008961


6158 5747 463426 211914:%62


Moody’s InvestorsServiceBERIAsia Money20001213Aa32000122000127PERCIMDWEF200011209200012620015920015514200124864354484263


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6.47% 5.98%1.06% 265.25 %4.02 % 1988

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