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POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY TN

Table 2.2 indicates

Table 2.2 indicates sectoral shares of employment and corresponding growth rates in recent years. It can be seen that the growth in agriculture employment during 1993-94 to 1999-00 and 1999-00 to 2004-05 has been negative. At successive 5 year intervals, the agriculture share in total employment has progressively come down. Correspondingly, shares of other sectors have gone up. b. Sectoral Growth Pattern Table 2.3 shows the sectoral growth pattern. The average growth in the primary sector and particularly in agriculture has been low. The average annual growth rate in agriculture was about 2 percent during 1994-95 to 2006-07. In the first four years of the current decade, growth rates of the primary sector and agriculture have been negative. Table 2.3: Average Annual Growth Rates: GSDP at Constant Prices (Percent) Sectors 1994-95 to 1998-99 1999-00 to 2003-04 2004-05 to 2006-07 1994-95 to 2006-07 Primary of which 3.073 -4.173 7.825 2.051 Agriculture 3.232 -5.267 8.462 1.951 Secondary of which 5.811 4.723 6.898 5.638 Manufacturing 4.365 4.855 9.282 5.482 Tertiary 9.687 5.665 8.589 7.996 GSDP at 1999-00 prices 6.780 3.645 7.977 6.002 Population 1.070 0.915 0.820 0.949 State Per Capita Income (Rs.) 5.650 2.705 7.099 5.006 Source (Basic Data): Government of India, Central Statistical Organisation, various issues. As depicted in Chart 2.1, agriculture is characterized by low average growth rate with high volatility. During 1994-95 to 2006-07, the average growth rate has been about 5.6 percent in the secondary sector and close to 8 percent in the tertiary sector. There are signs that the Tamil Nadu economy has emerged out the recession of the early years of the decade with the overall GSDP growth during 2004-05 to 2006-07 close to 8 percent per annum on average. Chart 2.1 shows the sectoral growth pattern in Tamil Nadu, bringing out the sectoral volatility of the primary sector and the fact that all the sectors went through a recession in recent years, but growth is now picking up. The formulation of a medium to long term fiscal strategy requires to take into account the changing structure of the state economy. 32

Chart 2.1: Sectoral Growth in Tamil Nadu Table 2.4 shows the likely sectoral structure of the Tamil Nadu economy with alternative assumptions regarding growth rates during 2014-15 and 2019-20. In the first case, when historical growth rates are used, the share of agriculture may shrink to about 8 percent in 2014-15 and further to 6 percent by 2019-20. Table 2.4: Changing Structure of GSDP in Tamil Nadu: Future Outlook Alternative Scenarios: Shares in 2014-15 and 2019-20 (Percent) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Sectors Growth Matrix Shares in 2014-15 Shares in 2019-20 Growth Matrix Shares in 2014-15 Shares in 2019-20 Primary of which 2.05 9.57 7.25 4.00 9.10 6.60 Agriculture 1.95 7.99 6.01 4.00 7.65 5.55 Secondary 5.64 25.96 24.18 8.00 25.31 23.03 Tertiary 8.00 64.47 68.57 11.00 65.60 70.37 Total 100.00 100.00 100.00 100.00 Source: Computed by authors. The next case (scenario) is based on more optimistic projections of growth rate in agriculture. Even with 4 percent growth rate, which may prove to be difficult to sustain over a long period unless accompanied by increased investment in agriculture and complementary high growth rates in the industrial and service sectors, the share of agriculture goes down to a little more than 7.5 percent by 2014-15. These structural changes have significant implications for the growth of employment in the economy. 33

World Comparative Economic And Social Data
Police Stations - Tamil Nadu Police
N u m b e r o f S c h o o l s - DISE
Census 2011 population of Latur district
PDF: 1.0MB - Population Reference Bureau