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Market & Technology

Market & Technology Trends 3D: From Novelty DisplaySearch’s 3D Shipment Forecast > Western Europe Region 2D (000s) 3D (000s) 3D% 2010 41,386.3 1,130.0 3% 2011 36,990.1 4,854.1 12% 2012 33,131.9 9,736.1 23% 2013 28,170.1 14,886.9 35% 2014 25,935.0 18,055.0 41% 2015 24,602.4 20,255.6 45% > Eastern Europe Region 2D (000s) 3D (000s) 3D% 2010 16,420.6 313.0 2% 2011 18,286.6 1,177.4 6% 2012 19,514.8 2,922.2 13% 2013 18,697.9 5,119.1 21% 2014 18,906.3 6,853.7 27% 2015 19,384.1 8,406.9 30% Source DisplaySearch Display Search expect that 3D will continue to expand in set makers’ product ranges. 3D will become 45% of total TV shipments in Western Europe, and 30% of Eastern Europe in 2015 While the hype stage of 3D is probably drawing to a close, 2011 sees 3D products reaching massmarket price points and so we are on the point of rapid shipment growth. 3D TV services are appearing all over the world, including emerging markets. It is a clear lesson how new technology propagates rapidly in the digital world, with Chinese TV set makers for example already manufacturing sets in their home market. 3D forecast for West and East Europe The forecast is in the graph. We expect that 3D will continue to expand in set makers’ product ranges. 3D will become 45% of total TV shipments in Western Europe, and 30% of Eastern Europe in 2015. Of course in the popular sizes for the main TV set (40” and up) penetration will be much higher, and the relative lag for 3D in Eastern Europe is largely caused by the region’s preference for smaller sizes, in particular 32”. In fact, in 40” and larger sizes, more 3D sets than 2D are forecast to ship in 2012 for Western Europe and 2013 in Eastern Europe. 3D Broadcasting in Europe Of course people watch p r o g r a m m e s , n o t televisions! It is pointless to consider 3D without the material to support it. While broadcasters have rushed to launch some form of 3D service, either as treats like major sports events or longer thematic channels, there remains a severe shortage of content to watch. Even today, including all the 3D movies ever made, there would not be enough to fill a single 3D channel. Broadcasters have therefore started to commission special programming to supplement movies and sports coverage. Such commissions are typically documentaries as they probably carry the most impact in 3D – wildlife and adventure footage is more dramatic than comedy. So far 3D transmissions have largely been on satellite, which has been able readily to provide the extra capacity. Pay-TV providers also need to offer more than their free to air competition, and 3D fits nicely. Terrestrial broadcasting remains constrained by a shortage of radio spectrum, as in most countries analogue 14

to Maturity “(…)the key issue underpinning 3D: it is all about the content” t r a n s m i s s i o n i s s t i l l switching off. Terrestrial broadcasters also have to fight to retain space against competing demands such as mobile communications. However, new broadcasting techniques such as servicecompatible coding allow a single 720p HD broadcast with the extra 3D view cleverly packed in the transmission. A 2D set sees only a normal 2D broadcast. This technique has already been transmitted on a couple of channels in Italy. 3D movies have been the main engine of 3D content – and started off the whole of the current 3D wave. We still see no slowing of 3D releases, however the numbers do not appear to be growing at the exponential level that some of the earlier publicity had suggested. 3D fits well with Hollywood blockbusters and these are now the main driver of 3D in movies along with the Horror genre. Therefore a stable level of 50-100 new 3D movie releases per year looks likely. Display Technology One of the biggest objections to 3D in general is glasses. Efforts are concentrating on making glasses lighter and more comfortable to wear, and making them as unobtrusive as possible in use. The technology of 3D displays is evolving fast, and we can already see a shift from the first generation (active shutter) to passive shutter glasses. These have the advantage for consumers of reduced flicker and increased image brightness, as well as enabling frame designs which do not have to enclose electronics and LCD elements in the lenses. In due course we expect further developments of passive glasses technology, Market & Technology Trends for example to bring full resolution to each eye. While some set makers are portraying passive or active as some kind of gigantic format battle, the reality for consumers is that either display type will work with any 3D source, and DisplaySearch’s advice is for consumers to test 3D under their home viewing conditions and buy whichever feels most comfortable to watch. Eyestrain remains a very individual matter, with some people sensitive to flicker and others more affected by focusing effects. Glasses-free The Holy Grail of 3D remains glasses-free (autostereoscopic) displays. These require no glasses to view the 3D image. Toshiba launched a range of small (12” and 21”) autostereoscopic televisions in Japan in late 2010, but these retailed at around €2000 and sold in predictably small numbers. We know that set makers and panel makers are making a significant development effort on auto-stereoscopic products, and we expect flagship models within a year or two. However, mass-market products look to be at least five years away. Content! There is one part of the 3D jigsaw that has barely been covered in all the hype so far, and that is gaming. Games studios have largely been silent, but it is not inactivity. Current games are designed for a 2D display, and as such have artificial cues engineered into them to enable depth perception. A good example is the footprint below the ball in football games, which enables the distance of the ball to be perceived. Such cues have to be removed and accurate lighting, shadowing and other depth-sensitive information built into the game’s basic engines. 2012 is likely to see the first games truly authored for 3D. We expect that 3D gaming will be very attractive – the 3D display is more immersive and depth will add hugely to playability of games. The gesture controls of Kinect on Xbox also bring a 3D user interface to the gameplay. In the longer term gaming may turn out to be the ‘killer app’ for 3D televisions. Which returns to the key issue underpinning 3D: it is all about the content. > > IFA DisplaySearch Business Conference Europe has become a hub of Internet video services, with strong uptake of IPTV and connected TV. Now, a revolution is happening in home electronics with the growth of tablets. The IFA DisplaySearch Business Conference will feature analysis from DisplaySearch, as well as presentations from top industry executives. The session will provide information on, and insight Hall 9 into, Stand the 203-210 business side of the TV supply chain, providing attendees with a broader understanding of the segment and the technologies that are driving its development. It will also predict what’s next for this burgeoning sector. Tablets, TVs and the home-video ecosystem are at the heart of the IFA DisplaySearch Business Conference, which takes place on Monday. 12:30 - 13:00 Registration 13:00 – 13:10 Welcome • Paul Semenza, Senior Vice President, Analyst Services, DisplaySearch 13:10 – 13:30 Keynote Address 13:30 – 15:10 Session 1: Understanding the Tablet Supply Chain 15:30 – 17:20 Session 2: Tablet Meets TV 17:20 – 18:30 Session 3: TV into the Future: Enhancing the Home Experience Monday, September 5, 2011 8:00 AM - 5:00 PM Messe Berlin Fairgrounds IFA International • Saturday 3 rd & Sunday 4 th September 2011 15

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