NINA-rapport 646: Laks i framtidens klima (pdf)

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NINA-rapport 646: Laks i framtidens klima (pdf)

NINA Rapport 646

3.12.1 Ferskvannsfasen .............................................................................................. 51

3.12.2 Vandringstidspunkt ........................................................................................... 51

3.12.3 Postsmoltvekst og sjøoverlevelse ..................................................................... 52

4 Scenarioer for effekten av framtidige klimaeffekter på laksebestander ...................... 54

4.1 Innlending ................................................................................................................... 54

4.2 iSalmon: generell modellbeskrivelse ........................................................................... 54

4.3 Modell kalibrering og verifisering iSalmon ................................................................... 59

4.3.1 Metoder ............................................................................................................ 59

4.3.2 Resultater modellverifisering ............................................................................ 60

4.4 Scenarioer for ulike type-elver og klimascenarioer ...................................................... 62

4.4.1 Vanndekt aral ................................................................................................... 62

4.4.2 Vekst ................................................................................................................ 63

4.4.3 Dødelighet lakseunger ...................................................................................... 66

4.4.4 Smoltalder ........................................................................................................ 68

4.4.5 Populasjonsdynamikk ....................................................................................... 70

5 Diskusjon og konklusjon ................................................................................................. 73

6 Referanser ......................................................................................................................... 76

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