Boletim do resumo e programas (XIV EMR 2015)

XIV Escola de Modelos de Regressão
De 2 a 5 de Março de 2015 - Centro de Convenções - Unicamp
37
Comunicação Oral 3.2 ( CO3)
Prospective space-time surveillance with geographical
identification of the emerging cluster
Thais V. Paiva
Renato M. Assunção
Taynana C. Simões
Resumo: We developed a space-time prospective surveillance method when the
data are point events, monitoring if there is an emerging cluster. Typical application
areas are crime or disease surveillance. At each new event, a local Knox score is
calculated and spatially spread to form a stochastic surface. The surfaces are
accumulated sequentially until they exceed a specified threshold, causing an alarm
to go off and identify the region of the probable cluster. The method requires little
prior knowledge from the user and provides a way to identify locations and time of
possible clusters, through the visualization of the cumulative surface. We present a
simulation study for different cluster scenarios, as well as an application to a dataset
of meningitis cases in Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
Palavras-Chave: Spatial Statistics, Disease Mapping, Surveillance, Point Patter,
Space-Time, Local Knox Score, Cumulative Surfaces.
Auditório
3
Data
Março
3
: emrxiv@gmail.com
: http://www.ime.usp.br/~abe/emr2015