Base hog prices traded mixed in terminal and regional markets. Buyers are actively looking

to fill next week’s schedule, which is supportive for live hog prices. Last week harvest

numbers came in above year ago levels and this week’s slaughter is also expected to come

in above year ago levels. Looking ahead, supply estimates for August are expected to come

in about 3% above year ago levels. From the supply perspective, this means more pork in

the pipeline during August and growing uncertainty about the large supplies of pork during

the last half of the year.

Hog weights continued to move lower week over week. Warm temperatures and high

humidity continue to impact live weights, but producers may be moving hogs to market

early to avoid declining live hog prices. Hog weights are expected to continue their seasonal

decline through the August time frame. Producer margins are expected to remain steady to

slightly profitable through mid-September.

On the demand side, week over week demand for commodity pork cuts remains lackluster

for the majority of the cuts. On the processed meat side, demand for hams has started

to slowly gain momentum while demand for bellies remains steady. The outlook for the

month of August indicates ample pork supplies with varying levels of domestic demand and

uncertainty for export demand. This may result in a volatile pricing for pork items during



Prices for bone-in loins moved lower week over week, while boneless loins found price

support and moved slightly higher. Ample product supplies, slowing retail demand and

increased availability of competing meats is expected to put downward pressure on

prices through early/mid-September.


Pork tenderloin prices posted significant declines week over week due to a lack of demand

and ample supplies. Tenders are expected to trade lower through late month and may firm

mid-September. Concerns regarding ample product supplies may put additional downward

pressure on prices.


Pork Butt prices moved lower week over week with additional declines posted this week. Prices

are expected to gradually move lower during August, but may firm late month due to retail

interest for Labor Day promotions. Increased export demand may support current price levels

over the next few weeks.


Spareribs and St. Louis Rib prices traded steady to slightly higher week over week due improved

retail demand for Labor Day promotions. Prices for Spareribs and St.. Louis Ribs are

expected to move lower after Labor Day. Back Rib prices moved lower week over week and

are expected to trade steady to slightly lower through August. Overall spareribs and back rib

prices are expected to continue their seasonal move lower during September.


Bacon/Belly prices continued their move lower week over week pressured by ample

supplies of fresh product. While bacon demand is expected to remain strong during August,

belly prices are expected to remain volatile as supplies of fresh product remain plentiful

and packers attempt to clear their inventory. The long-term outlook for bellies indicates that

prices are expected to move lower through September.


Ham prices firmed last week and traded slightly higher. Prices are expected to trade steady

to slightly higher through August supported by improving export demand. Long-term price

outlook for hams indicates a risk of increased price volatility during August/mid-September

due to the changing level of export demand.


The following market dynamics will impact hot dog and breakfast sausage pricing during

the September time frame. Pork trimming prices traded slightly lower during the late July/

early August time frame; thus prices for breakfast sausage are projected slightly lower for

September price lists. On the other hand, sow prices moved higher during the late July/

early August time frame; thus Whole Hog Sausage prices are expected to be higher for

September price lists. On the beef and all meat hot dog side, lower beef trimming prices

during August will result in higher prices for All Beef Hot Dogs during September.


The following market dynamics will impact Dinner Sausage prices during the September

time frame. Pork picnics prices traded higher during late July/early August supported

by increased seasonal demand. Thus Dinner Sausage prices will be slightly higher for

September price lists.


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