CAMBIO CLIMATICO

REPÚBLICA DOMINICANA 2003
average, from 1 to 3° C higher than what the temperature
normally is during this period.
Regarding the Atlantic slope area, the average
for the year 2010 (25.997 °C) is less than the
base value (27.008 °C). This is inconsistent with
the pattern of increase and is an example of the
bias introduced by the correlation, which is narrowly
interrelated with the values of the correlation
coefficient between 0.70 and 0.84. There
is also a high degree of correlation between the
temperature of the air and the water in the
Caribbean and Atlantic regions, both of which
have similar seasonal variations, with natural
differences being that the water remains at a
higher temperature for a longer time from the
height of the summer, due to the thermal inertia
of the ocean.
The adaptation measures in this sector are targeted
to avoid and/or mitigate the changes needed to alleviate
and evaluate in the shortest possible time the
expected impacts on the Dominican coasts based on
the vulnerability of the different sectors, and to
develop strategies with adaptation measures that
contribute not only to mitigating future impacts, but
also to resolving the current impacts that reduce the
vulnerability of the coastal environment.
The recommendations for mitigating these
impacts include measures such as the following:
• Restore and rehabilitate the wetlands areas
and coasts to allow the natural flooding of
large land areas and to maintain water balances.
• Eliminate the current pressures that reduce
the capacity of the coastal ecosystems to
respond to climate change, particularly all
forms of domestic and industrial pollution.
• Avoid the removal of plants and protect the
biological diversity in order to maintain and
increase the capacity for recovery and adaptation
of the wetlands ecosystems so that they
can continue to provide important services
under varied climate conditions.
• Maintaining the flow of rivers, including the
period of low water, also represents an important
approach in the maintenance of the wetlands
systems, etc.
1.4.3 Agricultural Sector
The ongoing climate change represents a potential
threat for agricultural production and the
very existence of the forests in the tropical zone
of the planet (UKMO, 1998; IPCC, 1996).
The Potential Biomass Density (PBD) for
Dominican forests could not be calculated
because the necessary topographic and soil information
was not available for this report. To evaluate
climate impact on agricultural crops annually,
the WOFOST 4.1 biophysical model was used.
On the other hand, the impact parameters analyzed
for irrigation crops were potential yield,
such as water consumption, and the quantity of
nutrients required to produce these yields. For
irrigation crops, the model was run 30 times for
each date of planting, in the base climate and in
future climatic scenarios, with and without taking
into account the possible CO 2 fertilization effect.
This study included only the biophysical impacts
of the first order of climate change concerning
agriculture and forests in the Dominican
Republic, and not those of a higher order
(Rivero, 2001). This preliminary evaluation is,
therefore, in a certain sense, analogous to the
rapid evaluation conducted in Cuba (Rivero et al,
1998), and should be expanded and completed
in the future by Dominican specialists.
1.4.3.a) Forests and Forest Formations
The (potential) net primary productivity (NPP)
of Dominican forests under current climate conditions
denotes a very high productivity in the
geographical zone coinciding with the highest
amount of precipitation. However, there are
areas of very low NPP located to the south of the
Central Mountain Range. The NPP of the forest
formations will experience momentous changes
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