29-07-2022

FRIDAY, JULY 29, 2022
4
Acting Editor & Publisher : Jobaer Alam
e-mail: editor@thebangladeshtoday.com
Friday, July 29, 2022
A perspective on
population growth
T
he
latest data say that Bangladesh
population now stands at 16.50 crore
which means that after counting the
death rate a significant number has been
added to the total population since the last
census. The data notes a slight fall in the
growth rate but the same is no assurance
that the population growth rate would be
kept bridled in the near future.
Bangladesh is the seventh most populous
country in the world but has only about
55,000 square miles of land territories to
sustain a vast population which is already
well above 160 million and seems likely to
swell to some 180 million in another two
decades at its current rate of growth. Policy
planners claim that its annul population
growth rate has fallen from above 3 per
cent in the past to some 1.48 per cent
recently. But the official claim is doubted
and even if it is accepted, the vision of a far
bigger population in the near future is a
mind boggling one.
Some over optimistic people maintain
that the country's vast population can be
tuned into human resources and can form
lucrative markets for local and foreign
producers in the future. But hard boiled
realists say that the country's huge
population is already a liability for it and
this situation could turn worse in the
future. They say Bangladesh is already
overpopulated by any assessment or
definition. Already, the existing size of the
population and its growth have created
crisis like situations in sectors of housing,
employment, health, etc. The crises are
going to be deeper in the near future and
could shatter socio-political and economic
stability the country has at present.
Therefore, the population growth rate
needs to be brought down, substantially, at
an early date. The population growth rate
in Bangladesh will not be brought down to
zero level like in the Scandinavian
countries. There would be encountered
strong social and cultural barriers against
such initiatives. But it can be tried to
effectively bring it below one per cent in a
decade from now if the same goal is
earnestly pursued. This decrease in growth
will mean a manageable population by the
middle of the present century.
But the official population programmes in
the rural areas where over 80 per cent of
Bangladeshis have their existence, are
seen to be shot through with corruption,
inefficiency, lethargy and all other ills.
Family planning visitors under the
programme hardly do their job ; they may
make some casual visits at long intervals
without doing their work with motivation
and sincerity. In most cases, there are no
publicities of the same and people remain
unaware of what things are on offer for
adopting sterility or permanent birth
control. The cash awards for conducting
vasectomy on men and women are found
misappropriated in many cases while on
paper they maintain fake records of
persons who were operated as well as their
getting of the awards.
Clearly therefore, a very strong case exists
to revamp the official population control
programmes to achieve much better
results.
Some economists talk about population
dividends or the presence of a youthful and
relatively more productive workforce. But
statistics on training or making of the
young ones more assets than liabilities are
not reliable. Besides, in the Bangladesh
population specially older persons are
rapidly increasing in number but they
would be counted as net liabilities in the
longer run. Therefore, there is every
imperative to control population growth
and keep the population size at a
sustainable level in the mid term and
longer term.
As temperatures surge upward
shattering records and lives with an
alarming consistency, it is jawdropping
to just take stock of the phalanxes
of climate-change deniers.
Most species on this planet may reach the
level of extinction before some of these
diehard, cultist, fact-denying, science
skeptics smell the coffee.
Being a skeptic is one thing and perfectly
acceptable. Challenging the research and
insisting on evidence is responsible. It is
legitimate to question how serious the crisis
is, how fast the world has to act, how much
time is left to deal with it, and what steps
should be taken first.
Many were latecomers to the gravity of
the challenge life on Earth faces, not least in
the Middle East. Yet even in the
hydrocarbon rich states, that may be
considered to have so much to lose on this
front, tackling the environment and manmade
climate change has become a top
priority.
It is also understandable why many
simply do not wish to face the reality. It is
tough. It is hard to get one's head around
the challenge in front of us all. The
attractions of wanting to believe the
climate-change deniers are clear.
What is not acceptable, and is frankly
extremely dangerous, is the head in the
boiling sand approach of the climate
change denial movement. This is a debatefree
zone. It is akin to a religious belief that
the climate has not altered one jot and
those who say it has, are either grand
conspirators or their victims. As too often
nowadays, science and expertise are
derided and dismissed.
Worse still, are those who knowingly
trumpet pseudoscience and dangerous
conspiracies. Alarmingly many of those
who parroted dangerous coronavirus
pandemic conspiracy theories are also in
the climate change conspiracy camp.
Sadly, the most serious challenge is in the
US, where largely far right groups try to
The Third World's poor are suffering the
spillover effects of the Ukraine war.
Image: Twitter
Populations in Western countries are
angry. Western elites, who are supposed to
lead their societies in the right direction, are
instead leading them in the wrong direction
on Ukraine. There is a wiser course of
action.
This wiser course of action is based on a
simple principle - that the perfect is the
enemy of the good. G7 countries should
accept imperfect solutions that will make
their people happier. That will also help the
billions of poor people in the Third World
who are suffering from higher food and
energy prices.
Moral priority has to be given to the
sufferings of the poor - the bottom 10-20% of
the world's population.
The greatest American political philosopher
of recent times, John Rawls, emphasized that
the justest society was the one that took care
of the bottom 10%.
As he outlined in his seminal work, A
Theory of Justice, any social or economic
inequalities, if they are to satisfy the principles
of justice, "are to be to the greatest benefit of
the least-advantaged members of society."
The global poor are suffering today for three
main reasons. The massive post-Covid-19
stimulus packages, especially in the United
States, have unleashed global inflation.
Financial Times economist Martin Wolf
recently wrote that "the combination of fiscal
and monetary policies implemented in 2020
and 2021 ignited an inflationary fire."
The illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine,
followed by massive sanctions on Russia, has
led to a huge spike in energy and food prices.
Despite these sanctions, the EU has paid
more money for Russian gas.
The shadowy economics of ISIS' resurgence in Syria
Despite Islamic State's (ISIS') territorial
defeat in Syria more than two years
ago, the group has continued to
terrorize people, particularly in the northeast.
In June, ISIS sleeper cells were linked to 18
attacks and 16 deaths, on par with ISIS-linked
violence in May, when 14 died in 26 attacks.
The group's survival is due, in part, to its
ability to extort business owners to finance its
operations and regrow its networks.
For months, ISIS has been using the threat
of violence to operate extensive protection
rackets in Raqqa and Deir Ezzor
governorates. The inability of local authorities
to provide sufficient protection from ISIS has
left many people with no choice but to pay.
More important, fear of retaliation from
both ISIS and the Syrian Democratic Forces
(SDF) has allowed these extortion activities to
go largely undetected, making it more difficult
to counter. Unless the conditions that enable
ISIS to finance itself are addressed, the
Countering climate change
undermine the science. One survey, in
2008, showed that in America, 92 percent
of climate-skeptical materials were linked
to conservative think tanks. While
Democrats have tended to become more
concerned about climate change, the
Republican party is still dominated by
climate-change skeptics.
Members of the credible scientific
community are clear. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change determined that, "since systematic
scientific assessments began in the 1970s,
the influence of human activity on the
warming of the climate system has evolved
from theory to established fact."
The science shows that climate change is
not just happening but getting worse.
Which begs the question what such
delusional headbangers think is
happening? Do they have to wait until all
the ice sheets, and glaciers have
disappeared? Given that, according to
NASA, Greenland lost an average of 279
billion tons of ice per year between 1993
and 2019, they may not have to wait long.
Such attitudes represent a serious threat to
our existence and have to be faced down.
Climate change kills. It destroys homes
and livelihoods. It will get worse and will
only be halted with systematic and
determined global action.
When record temperatures are broken
once again in Europe, they just say this is
fake or quite natural. They think the same
when learning nearly half the continent is
Talk to Russia to save the world’s poor
Since the war began on February 24, 2022,
Europe has paid more than US$60 billion for
Russian oil and gas, while complaining that
India and China were buying too much
Russian oil.
This led to the now famous quip from the
Indian Foreign Minister, Subrahmanyam
Jaishankar, who said "our total purchases for
the month would be less than what Europe
does in an afternoon."
The Omicron strain of Covid-19 has broken
through the defenses of China's zero-Covid
policy. This led to massive shutdowns,
including lockdowns in Shanghai since March
2022. Since China is the factory of the world,
these have also contributed to global inflation.
What is the rational response? To find a
perfect solution? Or to accept an imperfect
solution that alleviates the suffering of many
people, including the people of Ukraine and
the large number of poor people in the world?
The West has been pushing for a perfect
solution. The rest of the world would prefer to
decrease their suffering with an imperfect
solution.
What is the perfect solution? It is what the
West is pursuing in Ukraine - the total
withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukraine.
No compromise. If the West could
accomplish this, it should go for it. But the
prospects of achieving this perfect solution in
group's survival will almost certainly be
guaranteed.
ISIS is reliant on its extensive knowledge of
local communities to identify targets and
determine the amount of tribute. The group
typically flags professionals (such as doctors
and pharmacists) and business owners
(including prominent farmers, shepherds,
shop owners, traders and investors) who are
considered well off. In a series of interviews
that I conducted in recent months, those
affected told me that ISIS uses a wellinformed
human-intelligence network to
track targets and estimate their income.
The scale and frequency of these forced
payments varies. Some of the group's victims
said they paid between US$700 and $1,500
annually, while investors overseeing oilfields
in eastern Deir Ezzor reportedly pay more
than $5,000 per well per month (or 10-20%
of the well's monthly profits).
Once targets are selected, ISIS uses various
CHRIS DOYLE
KISHORE MAHBUBANI
HAID HAID
facing drought this summer. The huge
numbers of wildfires across Europe and
elsewhere are just part of the natural cycle,
though clearly, they are not given their
increased frequency and intensity.
Wildfires are getting more ferocious
every year not least due to drier winters and
longer, hotter summers. They have even
broken out in Scandinavia and recently, in
Members of the credible scientific community are clear. The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change determined that, "since
systematic scientific assessments began in the 1970s, the influence of
human activity on the warming of the climate system has evolved
from theory to established fact." The science shows that climate
change is not just happening but getting worse.
southern England, where temperatures
tipped over 40 degrees Celsius for the first
time in recorded history. Rail lines are
buckling in the heat. Wildfires destroyed 41
homes around London.
Paris recorded temperatures of more
than 40 degrees Celsius for only the third
time since recordings began in 1873. In
Greece, officials said that since the fire
season commenced on May 1, they had
tackled more than 2,500 fires. According to
the World Health Organization, this year
alone, "we have already witnessed more
than 1,700 needless deaths in the present
heatwave in Spain and Portugal alone."
Major cities suffering from heat stress
will have to adapt. Early warning systems
are needed. Urban construction will have to
change. Rather than treat heatwaves as
emergencies many countries will have to
plan for them as standard, not rare, events.
This is the future. In the hotter countries
of the Middle East, extreme heat may
render areas uninhabitable. Look at the
dust storms in Iraq. In countries such as
Britain, the population will have to adapt
their housing and lifestyles to cope with
Ukraine are zero.
World Trade Organization (WTO) Director-
General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala said "the war in
Ukraine has created immense human
suffering, but it has also damaged the global
economy at a critical juncture. Its impact will
be felt around the world, particularly in lowincome
countries, where food accounts for a
large fraction of household spending …
Smaller supplies and higher prices for food
mean that the world's poor could be forced to
do without."
The first step is to call for an immediate
The first step is to call for an immediate ceasefire. Hundreds die
each day that the war continues. If Ukraine is going to feed the
world again in 2023, it needs to get fertilizer so its farmers can
start planting in 2022. More food in 2023 equals less suffering
for the global poor.
ceasefire. Hundreds die each day that the war
continues. If Ukraine is going to feed the
world again in 2023, it needs to get fertilizer
so its farmers can start planting in 2022.
More food in 2023 equals less suffering for
the global poor.
The second step is to start talking to Russia.
There should be two levels of talks. The first
should be between Ukraine and Russia. The
second should be between the West and
Russia. Ukrainian lives would be saved and
the whole world would breathe a sigh of relief.
Then comes the hard slog. Given the huge
chasm between Western and Russian
positions on Ukraine, there will be no
immediate long-term solution. But we're
more likely to get one if talks begin, especially
if we can get more countries in the world to
methods to communicate demands. Victims
told me that the group relies primarily on
messaging applications, particularly
WhatsApp, which uses end-to-end encryption
and provides ISIS affiliates with anonymity.
But ISIS also delivers written notices
stamped with the group's logo to the homes of
its targets, an intimidation tactic that is
arguably more effective.
Regardless of how people are coerced,
ransom demands typically include the name
of the target, the required amount in US
dollar denominations, and where the
payment should be dropped. The messages
also contain clear and explicit warnings to
deliver the money quickly and discreetly to
avoid punishment.
Failure to comply has resulted in ISIS
attacks on businesses, kidnappings, and
targeted killings. In January, ISIS reportedly
destroyed several oil wells when those in
charge refused to pay. Nonetheless, there
temperatures the country is not used to. At
the same time severe flooding in Europe is
also an immense risk.
How serious is this climate-change denial
movement? It is hard to charge. A recent
opinion poll in Britain showed that 70
percent of people believed climate change
was the cause of the recent heatwave, but 17
percent claimed it was unrelated. Even if
some of that 17 percent were skeptics, not
denialists, it is worryingly high.
A major public education program is
required. Climate change should be taught
at schools or at least incorporated
significantly into the curriculum.
The media too can play its role. Gone
should be the days of false balance between
eminent scientists and heavily paid climate
denying lobbyists. Broadcasters and editors
should abstain from marketing images of
fun and children splashing in the water in
the sun during a heatwave as if this was all
normal and lovely.
What is not acceptable, and is frankly
extremely dangerous, is the head in the
boiling sand approach of the climate
change denial movement.
All of this leads up to the next COP
climate conference in the Egyptian resort
city of Sharm El-Sheikh, in November.
Many excuses for inaction may be made
citing the global financial crisis and the
Russian invasion of Ukraine. It should not
be a choice. Investment into countering
climate change is too vital to be subject to
the fate of the financial markets. The
funding must be ringfenced. The impact of
climate change cannot be left to the side to
wait for another day.
Speaking at the recent Petersberg
Climate Dialogue in Berlin, the UN
Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said:
"We have a choice. Collective action or
collective suicide. It is in our hands."
Chris Doyle is director of the Council for
Arab-British Understanding, in London.
Twitter: @Doylech
talk to Russia.
It would be a huge strategic mistake by the
West to get Indonesia, as the host of the G20
meeting on November 15-16, to disinvite
Russian President Vladimir Putin from the
meeting. It would be an even bigger mistake
for the West to boycott the G20 summit if
Putin should attend.
There is one statistic that every Western
leader should memorize and repeat each
night before going to sleep - the West only
comprises 12% of the world's population.
If Putin comes to Jakarta in November
2022, as he should, he will hear the views of
the West and he will hear the views of the rest.
Putin is not likely to listen to the West since
there is zero trust between Russia and the
West. But he will listen to the rest, so the West
is stabbing itself in the foot by calling for Putin
to be disinvited.
A woman uses an oil lamp at her home
without electricity in Pliken village,
Pekalongan, Central Java, Indonesia. Photo
AFP Forum via NurPhoto / Pradita Utana
The West is pushing for Putin to be
excluded because it is pushing for the perfect
solution of trying to defeat Russia. But that is
a solution that will never come about.
The West should listen to Indonesia and
other non-Western members of the G20 and
try to find some kind of compromise solution
for Ukraine. Such a solution will save the lives
of Ukrainians and it will alleviate the suffering
of the hundreds of millions of poor people in
the world.
In short, the pragmatic solution is also the
ethical solution.
Kishore Mahbubani, a veteran diplomat, is
a distinguished fellow at the Asia Research
Institute at the National University of
Singapore.
seems to be wide latitude in how Islamic State
enacts its retribution for non-compliance and
is dependent on the personality of the ISIS
commander and the profile of the targeted
individual. For example, not all ISIS targets
are able to pay, and victims told me that the
group leaves room for negotiation.
A doctor in rural Deir Ezzor said he received
a WhatsApp message from a foreign number
demanding payment of $1,200. Attached to
the message was a photo of an invoice
stamped with the ISIS logo with details on
where to send the cash. But when the doctor
replied that he was internally displaced and
treats patients who cannot afford medical
care, the ISIS operative agreed to reduce the
fee to $800.
Haid Haid is a Syrian columnist and a
consulting associate fellow of Chatham
House's Middle East and North Africa
program.