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10 MHCE News SEPTEMBER 2020 EDITION THIS MIDEAST F-35 SHOWDOWN MAY BE STEALTH CAMPAIGN FOR NEW WEAPONS GILLIAN RICH The Israeli F-35 is a key weapon in maintaining its military superiority in the Middle East region, and a proposal to sell it to the United Arab Emirates has set off a diplomatic row between the two U.S. allies. But analysts say Israel’s strong opposition to the UAE obtaining Lockheed Martin’s (LMT) stealth fighter could be a ploy to get additional U.S. weapons ahead of the 2020 presidential election. The dispute arose after Israel and the UAE agreed to establish diplomatic ties earlier this month. The deal reportedly included an implicit understanding that the UAE would get the F-35, which the country has long sought. President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo have said that the U.S. is reviewing the sale. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu drew a hard line publicly against a sale and claimed the resumption of diplomatic ties with the UAE didn’t include any mention of weapons sales. As the drama unfolded, the UAE then canceled a planned meeting with Israel. Following the cancellation, Netanyahu announced that U.S. officials would escort Israeli officials to the UAE next week. But the uproar over the F-35 could also signal that Israel will push for other types of weapons in a U.S. military aid package. “It’s likely that Israel is just posturing, hoping to secure a grant aid package in return for UAE F-35 deal acquiescence,” Teal Group analyst Richard Aboulafia said. “This could mean more F-35s or more F-15s.” The Israeli Air Force is weighing an order for additional F-35s vs. an upgraded but non-stealth Boeing (BA) F-15 dubbed the F-15EX. Alternatively, Israel also could use the argument of maintaining air superiority to request long-range weapons like Lockheed’s Joint Airto-Surface Standoff Missiles or various types of ground-based weapons, said Mark Cancian, a senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The U.S. has allowed Israel to maintain this air superiority in the region since the 1960s. Israel typically gets a five-year head start when buying new weapons vs. other Middle Eastern allies. The first Israel F-35 was delivered in December 2016. “They’ve always been given a fiveyear head start, like with the F-15 and F-16. They are getting their fiveyear head start. What do they want, a 10-year head start?” Aboulafia said of the Israel F-35 fleet. Even if Israel’s neighbors buy the F-35, it can still maintain an edge, he added. Israel has a higher degree of country-specific modifications vs. other F-35 foreign buyers that would “presumably give them an advantage over other export models,” he noted. Both Aboulafia and Cancian said the decision on which fighter jet to buy is an internal one likely based on factors like cost and need in the air force. Cancian said the F-35’s maintenance cost is “pretty ferocious.” Israel also could be in a rush to secure weapons ahead of a contentious election brewing in the U.S. that could upend the last four years of Mideast policy. In their 2020 platform, the Democrats said they are committed to Israel’s security and “commitment to Israel’s security, its qualitative military edge, it’s right to defend itself.” But platforms are symbolic documents not legislation, and the Democrats also reiterated a tough stance against human rights violators. “The Democrats have vowed to view arms sales through the lens of human rights, unlike the Trump administration which has viewed them through the lens of U.S. manufacturing and employment,” Cancian said. “The Democrats are looking at Saudi Arabia, but in theory, that could apply to Israel.”
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