11-05-2022

WedneSdAy, mAy 11, 2022
4
Acting Editor & Publisher : Jobaer Alam
e-mail: editor@thebangladeshtoday.com
Wednesday, May 11, 2022
Coping with a vital
national issue
Ahigh profile seminar organized jointly by a British research
organization and Bangladesh's Ministry of the Environment was
held in Dhaka couple of years ago. It was attended by foreign
researchers and scientists. Prediction was made from it that some 11 per
cent of Bangladesh could be lost to the sea by 2050 from earth warming
and the consequent sea level rise.
But global climate change is still an uncertain phenomenon. Scientists
themselves are divided on the issue. At any rate, there is a consensus
scientific opinion worldwide that there is nothing very accurately
predictable or ascertainable about climate change and nothing can be
said with absolute certainty or surety.
Scientists are only making some hard guesses based on presently
available statistics that may alter in the near future. For example, they
are only making guesses about glacier meltdown and sea level rise. They
can have no exact estimation of the extent of that rise because there is
now no exact assessment of the rate of glacier meltdown or the melting
of the polar caps. None can, therefore, predict accurately the future rate
of the sea level rise from such ice melting. The same may be only some
centimeters by the middle of the present century and in that case
Bangladesh would not be at all affected by sea level rise.
Besides, the concern that was created about earth warming in the
eighties led to significant steps taken by the most greenhouse gases
emitting country in the nineties and beyond to try and reverse the
process. Most of the major industrialized countries - the main emitting
countries-are adhering to guidelines under the Kyoto protocol to reduce
the level of emission of such gases down to their levels in the seventies.
The USA did not sign the protocol initially but under intense
international pressure it has rejoined the protocol . Besides, the US, on
its own, is taking some measures to emit less greenhouse gases.
Therefore, the outlook in the near future is less and less emission of
greenhouse gases and the same would be beneficially impacting on the
environment and making it unlikely that sea level could rise by several
metres to inundate coastal regions including much of Bangladesh
Unfortunately, not much has been noted so far in the country's annual
development plans (ADPs) to the effect that the government is paying
attention to this issue. Successive governments should have done all in
their powers to help the land accretion process which holds out so much
promise for this land hungry country. Not only doing everything locally
to aid the process of land accretion and consolidation, the governments
should have been proactive in seeking foreign assistance to realise the
same objective.
Already, substantial territories have surfaced in the coastal areas of
Bangladesh. Some of these places have completely surfaced and have
human habitations on them while others remain submerged during
tides to emerge with the ebbing of the tide. The latter types of accreted
lands are likely to gain in elevation to be permanently joined to the
mainland. Indeed, much of present day Bangladesh including the
districts of Faridpur, Barisal, Noakhali, Patuakhali, etc., were formed in
this manner over time.
Lands have already emerged from the sea in the coastal areas and
more lands from the sea will hopefully rise in the future. But the natural
process is a long one. It can be hastened and the technology for it is not
so prohibitive or complex either. For Bangladesh, it involves only
quickening the process of accretion by establishing structures like cross
dams to speed up the rate of deposition of silt in areas that have accreted
or nearly accreted.
The country is likely to get a generous response from the
international community in matters of fund availability and technical
supports if it can show that it is really keen to accrete more lands and
has put the endeavor under a systematic policy framework. Holland is
one country which has the most experience in getting lands out of the
sea. Today, the Dutch have not only solved these problems through
sophisticated engineering works, they have permanently reclaimed vast
stretches of lands from the sea and are keeping them dry for various
uses within secure barriers or sea walls.
Bangladesh may not have to embark on projects on the same scale as
were carried out in Holland because of its relatively better elevation. It
can use its huge reservoir of cheap manpower to build simpler projects
to get the same kind of results as were achieved in Holland. But for this
purpose it needs to engage in a time-bound and result oriented
framework of assistance and consultation with that country.
Besides, the government of Bangladesh ought to also appeal to the
international community to provide funds to it for the purpose. The
developed countries, specially the United States, are the main
contributors to the greenhouse syndrome which could affect
Bangladesh. Therefore, it would be only conscionable for these
countries to help out Bangladesh in projects designed to secure its
coastal areas and for their enlargement.
One may say that the cyclone hazards can be serious in the coastal
areas. But these hazards are not as these used to be in the past. Few
people have died from these cyclones in recent years and much less
resources were destroyed from cyclones . The creation of a network of
cyclone shelters and other forms of preparedness for disasters have led
to such favourable developments. With the establishment of a greater
number of cyclone shelters and extending the system of preparedness,
there would be no reason for a far bigger number of people than at
present not to be living and working safely in viable occupations in the
coastal areas including the already accreted lands and the about to be
accreted lands. This would only disprove the other prediction made at
the climate change seminar - the displacement of some 5.5 million
people from Bangladesh's coastal areas by 2050.
Apart from greater human settlement in the coastal areas or accreted
lands to ease the pressure of population, the same areas can play a far
bigger role for the national economy in contrast to the present. Coastal
areas-specially the coastal islands-are hugely prospective from the
perspective of tourism. Tourist resorts established in the coastal
islands-like in the Maldives-can be very paying in terms of foreign
tourist arrivals. The same prospects are also there in many places in the
coastal areas.
Shrimp has been a major item in our export trade in recent years. The
coastal areas are exclusively suitable for shrimp cultivation for the
export market. Extension of planned shrimp cultivation in the coastal
area is possible to many times increase earnings from this sector. Not
only shrimp, but sea fishes, crabs, etc., that are generally described as
frozen food and exported from Bangladesh, the catches or cultivation
of these can be remarkably increased in the coastal area with
infrastructure developments by the public sector to promote more
private sector investments into such activities.
Valuable deposits of minerals exist in the sandy beaches of the coastal
areas such as zircon, rutile, titanium, etc. It is quite possible to extract
these minerals and earn huge amounts in foreign currency. The coastal
areas are also known to have huge deposits of hydrocarbons like oil and
gas. Only limited exploitation of these resources have started with the
offshore drilling at Sangu for gas. But gradually, over time, these energy
resources can be tapped extensively for the benefit of the country.
Covering more than three-quarters
of the planet, the oceans absorbs
up to 30% of the carbon dioxide
produced by humans - a massive buffer
to the impacts of global warming.
Like clean air and fresh water, the
oceans are a global public good -
unrivaled in their importance as the
largest and most critical ecosystem on
the planet. More than 3 billion people
depend on marine and coastal
ecosystems and biodiversity for their
livelihoods.
The global Blue Economy - made up
of oil and gas, fisheries, coastal and
marine tourism, shipping, ports,
renewable energy, and marine and
coastal ecosystems - contributes
around US$3 trillion per year, or about
5%, to the world's GDP. In Vietnam, a
country with a coastline of more than
3,000 kilometers, the economy of the
sea and coastal provinces and cities
accounts for almost half of its gross
domestic product.
But our oceans are facing serious
threats from climate change, becoming
more acidic, losing oxygen, and heating
up. Left unchecked, this will have
devastating impacts on both life under
the sea and life on land, and ultimately
on the very survival of people and our
planet. Imagine a sea without living
creatures, be it fish or coral.
Key indicators - from water and
environmental quality to ecosystem
diversity and productivity - have all
declined. Sea-level rise is threatening
the survival of small island developing
states, and coastal livelihoods and
infrastructure also face serious risks.
And this is just what is easily
measurable. There are also
immeasurable values such as
tranquility and beauty, the
interdependence and social cohesion
among communities that live by and
with the sea, and the mysteries of the
deep that have furthered scientific
inquiry and discovery.
Recent reviews show that a 1-meter
rise in sea level would impact 11% of
Vietnam's population and 7% of its
agricultural land. Depending on the
severity of sea-level rise, climate change
Will BRICS tumble amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine?
As international sanctions over
the war in Ukraine slow
Russia's growth, global
knock-on effects - from higher gas
prices to faster inflation - are easy to
see. Others, like whether the
Russian invasion will lead to an end
of the official grouping of emerging
economies known colloquially as
the BRICS, require closer
examination.
The BRICS - Brazil, Russia, India,
China and South Africa - is a
political body created about seven
years after I coined the original
term in 2001 (with a small "s" for
plural rather than a large "S" for
South Africa) to represent the
changing economic power drivers of
the world economy. They were
identified for their significant
influence on developing-country
affairs, including integration into
the global economy.
Although the central piece of my
original thesis was to highlight the
need for representative global
governance, the BRICs acronym
garnered acceptance because of the
rising economic powers of these
countries, especially China. While
leaders of the BRICs were excited by
the publicity for their economic
potential, their attraction to the
idea of a club was also to foster
political recognition beyond the
global institutions dominated by
the United States.
Indeed, it is this initial motivation
that keeps them enthusiastic
members today, rather than
undertaking any genuine joint
policy development. That impulse
will remain regardless of Russia's
military adventurism, which is why
I suspect the BRICS political entity
will live on for quite some time.
Whether it matters is another
question entirely.
The aggregate size of the BRICS
countries is dominated by China,
which, according to data from the
end of 2021, had an economy in
The time is now for Vietnam’s Blue Economy
KAnni WignArAjA And CAiTlin WieSen
may eventually expose 38?46% of
Vietnam's population to flooding.
Additionally, ocean pollution,
especially plastics and marine litter, is
directly affecting human and marine
well-being. Globally, an estimated 8
million to 20 million tons of plastic
enters the ocean every year, and
microplastics have now been found in
marine food chains reaching the
extreme depths of the ocean. These
plastics are now in our bloodstreams.
In Vietnam, an estimated 3.7 million
metric tons of plastic waste is generated
every year, of which only 10-15% is
recycled. Around 2,000 tons of plastic
waste leaks from the country into the
ocean every day.
Removing plastic debris from the
ocean floors would be like moving
mountains. While trying to find ways to
address this removal, the issue of
plastic production also must be tackled
at the source before it further pollutes
ocean and human life.
As one of the countries most
vulnerable to climate change, Vietnam
is determined to play a part in the
global climate response.
At the COP26 meeting in Glasgow
last November, Prime Minister Pham
Minh Chinh pledged that Vietnam
would achieve net-zero emissions by
2050.
The country is developing robust
plans for sustainable development of its
Blue Economy, ensuring that the
benefits the ocean provides can be
protected, preserved, and improved to
provide for both current and future
nominal US dollar terms of about
$18 trillion. This is more than six
times the size of India's economy,
about 10 times Brazil's and Russia's,
and some 55 times the size of South
Africa's. Collectively, the BRICS
today are worth about $25 trillion,
roughly the size of the US economy.
But China is the only BRICS
country with an economic
performance that has exceeded the
potential anticipated in 2001. India
has come close, but 20 years on,
Brazil and Russia have
disappointed significantly, while
South Africa has done even worse.
In this sense, many economists,
businesspeople and journalists have
stopped paying much attention to
the BRICS nations' collective
actions.
With Chinese involvement, the
BRICS remain an economic force,
and because of this, it remains
feasible that by the mid- to late
2030s, their collective economic
size may become as large as the
Group of Six (the G7 minus
Canada). On the other hand,
without China, the collective weight
of the others would be greatly
dependent on India achieving its
true potential.
Given the current state of affairs,
the superficial awareness grows
that the group may find it harder to
be truly influential. I have
sometimes joked that, economically
at least, maybe it should be thought
of as simply the "ICs," to symbolize
jim O'neill
generations.
This will be key if Vietnam is to
achieve the Sustainable Development
Goals by 2030. Last month, the
Ministry of Natural Resources and
Environment (MONRE) assigned the
Vietnam Administration of Seas and
Islands (VASI) to work with partners to
develop a sustainable development
strategy for the maritime economy.
The United Nations Development
Program (UNDP) is supporting VASI to
Key indicators - from water and environmental quality to ecosystem
diversity and productivity - have all declined. Sea-level rise is threatening
the survival of small island developing states, and coastal livelihoods
and infrastructure also face serious risks. And this is just what is
easily measurable. There are also immeasurable values such as tranquility
and beauty, the interdependence and social cohesion among
communities that live by and with the sea, and the mysteries of the
deep that have furthered scientific inquiry and discovery.
identify six marine economic sectors
and to envisage the potential of the
country's Blue Economy by assessing
the contribution of these sectors to
Vietnam's sustainable development.
Other UNDP projects in the country,
such as integrated coastal management
(ICM) - combining the management of
human activities with the protection of
critical ecosystems - support
sustainable development that
encompasses coastal and marine
management, watersheds, river basins,
and other associated ecosystems.
While the potential is huge for
Vietnam's fisheries and aquaculture,
and marine renewable energy -
especially offshore wind, biodiversity
ecosystem services, and tourism - the
key is to balance the growth of these
closely linked sectors, as the
development of one industry can have
impacts on the others.
For this reason, strong and
comprehensive national marine spatial
planning is needed, including a master
plan that transcends provincial
boundaries, which can help the country
the economic importance of China
and India.
Certainly, for Brazil and Russia to
justify the global economic
recognition that the BRICs acronym
provided, it is time to start
performing dramatically better
(which in Russia's case seems
especially unlikely).
The aggregate size of the BriCS countries is dominated by
China, which, according to data from the end of 2021, had an
economy in nominal US dollar terms of about $18 trillion. This
is more than six times the size of india's economy, about 10
times Brazil's and russia's, and some 55 times the size of South
Africa's. Collectively, the BriCS today are worth about $25
trillion, roughly the size of the US economy.
Against this background, let's
consider the BRICS in the context of
the Russian invasion.
As I wrote in the Financial Times
last November to mark the 20th
anniversary of the BRICs, the
political club has not undertaken
any major joint policy initiative
since it was created, except for the
formation of the BRICS
Development Bank (now called the
New Development Bank).
It is disappointing that despite the
economic weakness of three
members, there has been little
appetite for initiatives that might
boost their individual or collective
economic performance.
Evidence of this apathy can be
seen in India's fraught bilateral
diplomatic, security, and defense
ties with China. Indian Prime
Minister Narendra Modi has yet to
attend a single meeting for China's
much-discussed Belt and Road
Initiative, snubs that are reflective
of India's objections to China's ties
to Pakistan.
In areas where there could be
exceptional benefits of economic
cooperation - such as trade
focus on prioritizing public investment
and encourage the private sector to
invest in projects using green
technologies for low carbon
development of sectors such as offshore
wind and tidal energy, industry,
transport, and marine coastal tourism.
The promotion of nature-based
solutions remains essential,
particularly as climate change is
happening at a speed and scale that are
higher than anticipated, drastically
affecting biodiversity and ecosystems.
Any delays, and these plans and actions
could be too late.
Vietnam has already made significant
and commendable progress in
establishing a comprehensive protected
areas system, which so far includes 16
marine areas such as the Tam Giang -
Cau Hai Lagoon - in the Central region.
About 12 million hectares of wetlands
nationwide provide primary livelihoods
and additional income for around 20
million people, and act as storm-surge
buffer zones and carbon sinks, and
prevent saline intrusion.
The UNDP, in its GCF coastal resilience
project, is supporting the rehabilitation
and regeneration of 4,000 hectares of
coastal mangroves to protect vulnerable
communities and livelihoods.
It is also critical to promote gender
equality and strengthen the role of
women, ethnic minorities, and other
vulnerable groups in the Blue
Economy, including opportunities in
marine-related activities to realize their
economic and social potential and to
enable them to protect natural
resources, while increasing
opportunities for decent work.
Ensuring that the ocean is not
compromised for economic growth -
with the well-being of both defining
progress - is fundamental to securing
the protection of a resilient Blue
Economy. This is a challenge not only
for the governments and people of
Vietnam, but for the world.
Kanni Wignaraja is a UN assistant
secretary general and director of the
United Nations Development Program's
Regional Bureau for Asia and the Pacific
agreements or infectious-disease
prevention - the BRICS, led by the
ICs, has been completely absent.
Viewed in this context, the
political club excels at symbolism
and little else, highlighting the
ongoing, deteriorating state of
global governance institutions that I
had hoped the BRICS' creation
might improve. To be fair, it is also
true for other global clubs, both
those with and without the BRICS.
Even the G20, which gave the
BRICS countries an individual
global voice, has been disappointing
since 2008, when it was
instrumental in navigating the
global financial crisis.
The BRICS' mixed response to the
Russian invasion highlights the
realities of the BRICS group today.
While Brazil, India, China and
South Africa have all refused to
criticize Russia's hostilities in
Ukraine and have not voted against
the invasion at the United Nations,
none have done anything actively to
support Russia, either. I doubt this
position will change.
As for Russia, which is
economically not much bigger than
South Korea, its global slide will
continue, unless there are huge
reforms.
President Vladimir Putin realized
long ago that his country couldn't
keep its early-noughties economic
boom going, and instead has
appealed to the historical and
nationalist tendencies of many
Russian citizens to keep his
popularity. This will have long-term
negative consequences for Russia.
It will also virtually ensure that
the BRICS grouping remains little
more than a symbolic shell of
unreached potential.
Jim O'Neill is a former chief
economist at Goldman Sachs
and served as a UK treasury
minister