earthquake loss estimation model - IIASA
earthquake loss estimation model - IIASA
earthquake loss estimation model - IIASA
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EARTHQUAKE LOSS ESTIMATION MODEL<br />
FOR RISK MITIGATION<br />
AND TRANSFER IN COLOMBIA<br />
L. YAMIN, S. ARÁMBULA,O. CARDONA, M. ORDAZ, O. MAHUL, F. GHESQUIERE<br />
AUGUST, 2006<br />
Presenting Author: Author Author:<br />
LUIS E. YAMIN<br />
Universidad de los Andes
1. BACKGROUND<br />
CONTENTS<br />
2. PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE RISK MODEL<br />
• Seismic Hazard<br />
• Vulnerability functions<br />
• Risk evaluation<br />
3. APPLICATIONS OF PROBABILITY RISK<br />
MODEL<br />
4. RISK RETENTION AND TRANSFER STRATEGY<br />
FOR BOGOTA AND MANIZALES
BACKGROUND<br />
1
NEED OF A FINANCIAL STRATEGY<br />
The Cost of Disasters<br />
DISASTER<br />
Popayán<br />
[1983]<br />
Armero<br />
[1985]<br />
Eje Cafetero<br />
[1999]<br />
ESTIMATED<br />
DAMAGE COST<br />
RECONSTRUCTION<br />
INVESTMENT<br />
TOTAL DISASTER<br />
EXPENSES*<br />
[Million USD] [Million USD] [% DAMAGE] [Million USD] [% GDP**]<br />
378 178 47,0% 579 1.5%<br />
246 360 146,3%<br />
1,591 857<br />
53.9%<br />
716<br />
2.0%<br />
2,696 3.2%<br />
* Includes other expenses (emergency response, administrative costs, etc)<br />
** Gross Domestic Product
NEED OF A FINANCIAL STRATEGY<br />
National Government roles in risk management<br />
Growing number of properties at all levels<br />
Risk management policies<br />
Decision making and general policies<br />
Regulation and building codes<br />
Prevention activities<br />
Retention and transfer strategies<br />
Post-disaster reconstruction<br />
General infrastructure<br />
Reconstruction costs for low income housing<br />
Private owner’s financing for reconstruction
PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE<br />
RISK MODEL<br />
2
PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE RISK MODEL<br />
Hazard Module Exposure Module<br />
Damage and Loss<br />
Module<br />
Risk Transfer and<br />
Retention Module<br />
Cost-Benefit Analysis<br />
(CBA) Module<br />
Vulnerability Module
1) SEISMIC HAZARD<br />
SEISMICITY AND FAULTING SYSTEMS<br />
Seismic Catalog and Earthquake Allocation<br />
Magnitude, Depth and Frequency<br />
Junin<br />
Arco de Dabeiba<br />
Bahia Solano<br />
Cauca<br />
Murindo<br />
Garrapatas<br />
Romeral<br />
Cauca<br />
Sinú<br />
Bolivar<br />
Romeral Norte<br />
Ibague<br />
Magdalena<br />
Palestina<br />
Cimitarra<br />
Salinas<br />
Bucaramanga, Santa Marta norte<br />
Suarez<br />
Bucaramanga<br />
Santa Marta sur<br />
Frontal<br />
Oca<br />
Perija<br />
Compresion Sur caribe<br />
Cuiza<br />
Boconó<br />
Uribante-Caparo<br />
Seismic fault system<br />
Pto Rondon
NATIONAL SEISMIC HAZARD MAP<br />
LOW<br />
Panamá<br />
Ecuador<br />
LOW<br />
HIGH HIGH<br />
MEDIUM<br />
HIGH<br />
MEDIUM<br />
MEDIUM<br />
Perú<br />
LOW<br />
Venezuela<br />
Brasil<br />
Amax
SEISMIC HAZARD AT LOCAL LEVEL<br />
Latitud<br />
6.0<br />
5.5<br />
5.0<br />
4.5<br />
4.0<br />
3.5<br />
CHOCÓ<br />
Itsmina<br />
Bue naven tura<br />
Quibdó<br />
San Pab lo<br />
Dagua<br />
Co ndoto<br />
Novita<br />
Sipi<br />
La Victoria<br />
VALLE DEL<br />
CAUCA<br />
Cali<br />
Rest repo<br />
Yumbo<br />
Bolivar<br />
Ur rao<br />
ANTIOQUIA<br />
Medellín<br />
Sonson<br />
Arge lia<br />
San F rancisco<br />
HUILA<br />
Puerto Salgar<br />
BOYACA<br />
SANTANDER<br />
LLoro<br />
Andes<br />
Agu adas<br />
Nariño<br />
La Do rada<br />
Yacopi<br />
La Victor ia<br />
Pauna<br />
Caldas<br />
Caram anta<br />
Pacora<br />
Sam ana<br />
Maripi<br />
Ba gadó<br />
Simijaca<br />
Supia Riosu cio<br />
Pensilvania<br />
Muzo<br />
Capar rapi<br />
Susa<br />
Mar mato Salamina<br />
Paime<br />
Fuq uene<br />
Mistrato<br />
CALDAS<br />
Victoria<br />
Ubate<br />
La Palma<br />
Fil ade lf ia<br />
Mar queta lia<br />
Cu cu naba<br />
Qu inchia<br />
Su patasa<br />
T adó<br />
Pto Rico<br />
To paipi<br />
Maru landa<br />
Villag oméz<br />
Ch oconta<br />
Arnzazu<br />
M anzan ares<br />
Ut ica Nimaima<br />
RISARALDA Manizales<br />
Ma riquita<br />
Tausa<br />
Anserma<br />
Neira<br />
Fresno<br />
CUNDINAMARCA<br />
Ma cheta<br />
Ap ia<br />
Honda<br />
Viterbo<br />
Gu aduas<br />
Manizales<br />
Nocaima<br />
Pacho<br />
Suesca<br />
Falan<br />
Supata<br />
Herveo<br />
Santuario Pa lestina<br />
L ibano<br />
Armero<br />
Sasaima<br />
Ne mocon Sesquile Villamaria<br />
San F rancisco<br />
La Ce lia<br />
Chag uani Alban<br />
G uatavita Bogotá<br />
T abio<br />
San José d el Palmar<br />
Tocancipa<br />
Lerida<br />
Bituima<br />
Sopó<br />
Balboa<br />
Gu ayabal<br />
Manta<br />
El Aguila Ten jo Ch ia<br />
Dosq uebr adas<br />
Villeta<br />
Mur illo<br />
Sa n Juan<br />
Santa Rosa de Cabal<br />
F acatat iva<br />
Guasca<br />
Zipacon<br />
Cota<br />
An serm anuevo Pereira<br />
Santa Rosa de Cabal<br />
G acheta<br />
Am balema<br />
Madrid<br />
El Cairo<br />
Quip ile<br />
Funza<br />
Argelia Car tago<br />
Alca la<br />
Toro<br />
Versalles<br />
Filandia<br />
La Victor ia<br />
La Union<br />
Armenia<br />
El D o vio<br />
Calarca<br />
La Victor ia<br />
QUINDIO<br />
Cor doba<br />
Zarzal<br />
Roldan illo<br />
Ca icedon ia Pi jao<br />
Salento<br />
Caja marca<br />
Santa Isabel<br />
Anzoat egui<br />
Ibague<br />
Venadillo<br />
Santa Isabel<br />
Coe lo<br />
Anolaima Bojaca<br />
Pu li<br />
Mosq uera<br />
T ena<br />
Be ltran<br />
Sa n Antonio<br />
La Mesa<br />
Soacha<br />
Jer usalen<br />
El Colegio Apulo<br />
Gra nada<br />
Sibate<br />
An apoima<br />
Gua taqui<br />
Silvan ia<br />
Nariño<br />
Agua de Dios Fusa gasuga<br />
Gira rdot<br />
Tibacuy<br />
Pasca<br />
La Calera<br />
Ch oachi<br />
Fom eque<br />
Ub aque<br />
Ch ip aque<br />
Ca queza Me ta<br />
Une<br />
Fosca<br />
El Calvar io<br />
Que tame<br />
M elgar<br />
Tr ujillo<br />
Bu galagr ande<br />
Tulua<br />
Se villa<br />
Genova<br />
Ro ncesvalles<br />
Rovira<br />
Sa n Lu is<br />
Fla ndes<br />
Espinal<br />
Ar belaez<br />
Venecia<br />
Pandi<br />
Sa n Bern ardo<br />
Ico nonzo<br />
Venecia<br />
Gutier rez<br />
Guaya betal<br />
Acacias Villavicen cio<br />
La Victor ia<br />
Sa n Pedro<br />
Riofrio TOLIMA<br />
Sa n A nton io<br />
Or tega<br />
Gu amo<br />
S aldaña<br />
Ca rmen de Apicala<br />
Vill ar ica<br />
Cabr era<br />
Cubar ral<br />
Gua mal<br />
Vi jes<br />
Aceleración Máxima del suelo; Tr=475 años, (gal)<br />
La Victor ia<br />
Gu acari<br />
Gin ebra<br />
El Cerrito<br />
Palmira<br />
Buga<br />
La Victor ia<br />
Salgar<br />
Caicedo<br />
Ebe jico<br />
Betu lia<br />
vene cia<br />
Jer icó<br />
Rioblanco<br />
jard in<br />
Be l lo<br />
Am aga<br />
Fr edon ia<br />
Chapar ral<br />
Copaca bana<br />
I tagui<br />
Mo ntebe llo<br />
Sa nta B ar bara<br />
La Union<br />
La Ce ja<br />
Abejor ral<br />
San Vicente<br />
Ataco<br />
Peñol Gua tape<br />
Co corna<br />
Alpu ja rra<br />
Gra nada<br />
Coyaima<br />
S anLu is<br />
San Carlos<br />
Prado<br />
Do l ores<br />
Nata gaima<br />
Ca rac o li<br />
Pt o N are<br />
P to T riunfo<br />
Purificación<br />
Colombia<br />
Pto. Boyaca<br />
La Uribe<br />
M esetas<br />
Otanche<br />
Pauna<br />
Tun ungua<br />
Bogotá D.C.<br />
L ejanias<br />
La Belleza<br />
META<br />
-77.0 -76.5 -76.0 -75.5 -75.0 -74.5 -74.0<br />
Longitud<br />
El Ca stilo<br />
Bolivar<br />
Land azuri<br />
El Peñon<br />
Alban ia Pu ente Nacional<br />
Saboya
BOGOTA<br />
UNITS BOGOTA<br />
Population Millions 7.5<br />
Number of Buildings Units 750.000
MANIZALES UNITS MANIZALES<br />
Population Millions 0.6<br />
Number of Buildings Units 85.000
LOCAL SOIL AMPLIFICATION EFFECTS<br />
0.005<br />
0.003<br />
0.000<br />
-0.003<br />
-0.005<br />
0.005<br />
0.003<br />
0.000<br />
-0.003<br />
-0.005<br />
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80<br />
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
SEISMIC HAZARD AT LOCAL LEVEL<br />
Bogotá<br />
Rock Acceleration Acceleration T = 1 seg
SEISMIC HAZARD AT LOCAL LEVEL<br />
Manizales<br />
Rock Acceleration Acceleration T = 1 seg
DETAILED SEISMIC HAZARD MODEL<br />
Bogotá
2) SEISMIC EXPOSURE AT LOCAL LEVEL<br />
Bogotá<br />
Socio-economic level
SEISMIC EXPOSURE AT LOCAL LEVEL<br />
Bogotá<br />
Max. number of stories
SEISMIC EXPOSURE AT LOCAL LEVEL<br />
Bogotá<br />
Taxable value
SEISMIC EXPOSURE AT LOCAL LEVEL<br />
Bogotá<br />
Constructed Area
SEISMIC EXPOSURE AT LOCAL LEVEL<br />
Bogotá<br />
General use
SEISMIC EXPOSURE AT LOCAL LEVEL<br />
Bogotá<br />
Structural type distribution
3) VULNERABILITY FUNCTIONS<br />
P*seno(wt)
Damage Calculation Based on<br />
Acceleration<br />
Damage Calculation Based on<br />
Interstory Drift<br />
ID Description ID Description<br />
1 Adobe / tapial earth walls 10 Semi-confined masonry<br />
2 Bahareque 11 Confined masonry<br />
3<br />
4<br />
Non-reinforced masonry - without diaphragm (1<br />
story)<br />
Non-reinforced masonry - rigid diaphragm (1<br />
story)<br />
5 Non-reinforced masonry (>2 stories) 14<br />
6<br />
7<br />
1st floor non-reinf masonry and 2nd floor nonreinfmasonry<br />
Light roof warehouse and non-reinforced<br />
masonry walls<br />
12 Reinforced masonry<br />
13 Waffle/Flat slab<br />
15<br />
16<br />
Weak reinforced concrete frames with masonry<br />
infill<br />
Strong reinforced concrete frames with masonry<br />
infill<br />
Reinforced concrete frames with concrete shear<br />
walls<br />
8 Light wood structure 17 Reinforced concrete shear walls<br />
9 Church 18<br />
19<br />
Light roof warehouse, steel columns and<br />
masonry walls<br />
Light roof warehouse, concrete columns and<br />
masonry walls<br />
20 Steel frames
Expected damage [%]<br />
VULNERABILITY MODELS<br />
Summary<br />
100%<br />
90%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
Type 1 - Adobe<br />
Type 2 - Bahareque<br />
Type 3 - SM - Rigid<br />
Type 4 - SM - Flexible<br />
Type 5 - SM 2 Stories<br />
Type 6 - CM+SM<br />
Type 19 - Church<br />
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000<br />
Rock acceleration [cm/s²]<br />
90%<br />
Expected damage [%]<br />
100%<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
10%<br />
0%<br />
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6% 1.8% 2.0%<br />
Maximum interstory drift [%]<br />
Type 10 - SEMCONFM<br />
Type 11 - CONFM<br />
Type 12 - REIM<br />
Type 13 - Waffle/FS<br />
Type 14 - Weak RCF + MW<br />
Type 15 - Strong RCF + MW<br />
Type 16 - RCF+RCW<br />
Type 17 - RCSW<br />
Type 18 - LRWare-Steel<br />
Type 19 - LRWare-Conc<br />
Type 20 - SF<br />
Type 10 - SEMCONFM<br />
Type 11 - CONFM<br />
Type 12 - REIM<br />
Type 13 - Waffle/FS<br />
Type 14 - Weak RCF + MW<br />
Type 15 - Strong RCF + MW<br />
Type 16 - RCF+RCW<br />
Type 17 - RCSW<br />
Type 18 - LRWare-Steel<br />
Type 19 - LRWare-Conc<br />
Type 20 - SF
COMPREHENSIVE SEISMIC RISK MODEL<br />
Hazard Exposure and<br />
Vulnerability<br />
General applications for<br />
Risk Management Strategy<br />
Damage Estimation<br />
Impact Estimation<br />
Infraestructure<br />
Direct Economic<br />
Social effects<br />
Environmental
APPLICATIONS OF<br />
PROBABILITY RISK MODELING<br />
3
APPLICATIONS OF THE<br />
PROBABILISTIC EARTHQUAKE RISK MODEL<br />
Damage to infraestructure<br />
-<br />
Social impact (affected, injured, victims)<br />
Economic <strong>loss</strong>es (direct and indirect)<br />
Retention and transfer strategies<br />
Cost-benefit analysis for mitigation<br />
alternatives<br />
Emergency planning (seismic scenarios)<br />
Reconstruction cost <strong>estimation</strong>
RISK MITIGATION INFORMATION<br />
Examples<br />
Structural Damages for Tr=1000<br />
years
RISK MITIGATION INFORMATION<br />
Examples<br />
Number of Injured<br />
Tr=1000 years
RISK MITIGATION INFORMATION<br />
Examples<br />
Number of failures per km<br />
Water system<br />
Tr=1000 years
RISK RETENTION AND<br />
TRANSFER STRATEGY<br />
4
RISK RETENTION AND TRANSFER PARAMETERS<br />
Summary<br />
• Average Annual Loss. AAL is the expected<br />
<strong>loss</strong> per year and is equivalent to the Pure<br />
Risk Premium, PRP.<br />
• Probable Maximum Loss. PML represents<br />
the <strong>loss</strong> amount for a given annual<br />
exceedance frequency, or its inverse, the<br />
return period.
RISK RETENTION AND TRANSFER PARAMETERS<br />
Summary<br />
UNITS BOGOTA MANIZALES<br />
Deductible % 3 % 3 %<br />
Mean Pure Premium Per mille 1.8 1.35<br />
PML1500 % 11.8% 12.9%<br />
PML1500<br />
US Dollar<br />
Millions<br />
3540 200
PROBABILISTIC LOSS ESTIMATION<br />
EXCEDANCE CURVE FOR PML<br />
Bogotá<br />
Manizales
FINANCIAL RISK MANAGEMENT<br />
Transfer and retention strategies – Private buildings<br />
Bogota<br />
PORCENTAJE DEL VALOR<br />
ASEGURABLE TOTAL<br />
1.8‰<br />
55 MDD<br />
RETENCIÓN<br />
0.60‰<br />
18 MDD<br />
100%<br />
?? %<br />
11.8%<br />
3%<br />
0%<br />
SIN PROTECCIÓN<br />
Gobierno Nacional (Subsidios,<br />
impuestos especiales, otros)<br />
Administración Distrital<br />
Banco Mundial / BID (créditos<br />
contingentes especiales)<br />
Seguro voluntario u obligatorio<br />
(No Exentos cubren Exentos)<br />
Instrumento de Seguros y Reaseguros<br />
Fondo de Reservas<br />
(Deducible de los Exentos)<br />
CIFRAS EN BILLONES DE DOLARES<br />
29<br />
Pérdida Real<br />
Evento Catastrófico<br />
3.5 (PML1500 años)<br />
0.9<br />
Administración Distrital<br />
y/o Gobierno Nacional<br />
+<br />
Propietarios predios No Exentos
SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT<br />
Cross-subsidizing Instrument<br />
Elements to consider<br />
Full coverage (all buildings)<br />
Social welfare – balance (taxpayers pay for nontaxpayers)<br />
Insured value (legal base)<br />
Premium collection- City tax collecting system<br />
Cover deductibles for low income housing<br />
Coverage limit (reinsurance market capacity)<br />
Additional coverage (provided by other instruments)<br />
Tax-exempt owners’ claims process
SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT<br />
Cross-subsidizing Instrument<br />
Manizales<br />
Average Prima Pura Pure Promedio Premium (‰) [‰]<br />
2.1<br />
2.0<br />
1.9<br />
1.8<br />
1.7<br />
1.6<br />
1.5<br />
1.4<br />
1.3<br />
1.2<br />
1.1<br />
1.0<br />
100%<br />
Cross-subsidizing Cross subsidizing Effect on Taxpayers’<br />
Taxpayers<br />
Pure Premiums and Effective Insured Value<br />
Taxpayers’ Premium<br />
90%<br />
Prima Incluyendo<br />
Exentos<br />
Prima Pura No<br />
Exentos<br />
Subsidizing<br />
Non-subsidizing<br />
80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20%<br />
Porcentaje de valor asegurado No Exentos (%)<br />
Percentage of insured value of taxpayers [%]<br />
10%<br />
0%
SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT<br />
Cross-subsidizing Instrument<br />
Average Pure Premium Increase [‰]<br />
Aumento de Prima Promedio (%)<br />
12%<br />
10%<br />
8%<br />
6%<br />
4%<br />
2%<br />
0%<br />
100%<br />
Cross-subsidizing Cross subsidizing Effect on Taxpayers’<br />
Taxpayers<br />
Pure Premiums and Effective Insured Value<br />
90%<br />
% de Aumento en<br />
Prima para No Exentos<br />
80%<br />
70%<br />
60%<br />
50%<br />
40%<br />
30%<br />
20%<br />
Percentage Porcentaje of de insured valor asegurado value of taxpayers No Exentos [%] (%)<br />
10%<br />
0%
SEISMIC RISK MANAGEMENT<br />
Case of Municipal Involvement<br />
Municipal Subsidio del Subsidy municipio [MM (Millones COP]<br />
$)<br />
$ 70<br />
$ 60<br />
$ 50<br />
$ 40<br />
$ 30<br />
$ 20<br />
$ 10<br />
Municipal Subsidy Payment for Fixed Values of<br />
Percentage Increase on Taxpayers’ Taxpayers Premiums<br />
Due to Cross-subsidizing<br />
Cross subsidizing<br />
$ 0<br />
30%<br />
Percentage Increase<br />
Taxpayers’ Premium<br />
25%<br />
5.8%<br />
11.5%<br />
20%<br />
15%<br />
10%<br />
Porcentaje de valor asegurado No Exentos (%)<br />
5%<br />
Percentage of insured value of taxpayers [%]<br />
0%
RETENTION AND TRANSFER STRATEGY<br />
Portfolio of Manizales’ Private Buildings<br />
VaAvalúo Catastral Acumulado (%)<br />
100.0%<br />
90.0%<br />
80.0%<br />
70.0%<br />
60.0%<br />
50.0%<br />
40.0%<br />
30.0%<br />
20.0%<br />
10.0%<br />
0.0%<br />
Insurable Value Cumulative Curve<br />
Taxpaying Buildings Portfolio<br />
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%<br />
Número de Predios (%)
CONCLUSIONS AND FINAL REMARKS<br />
Probabilistic seismic risk <strong>model</strong>s conform a basic<br />
tool for general seismic risk management<br />
Applications of probabilistic <strong>earthquake</strong> risk<br />
<strong>model</strong>ing include:<br />
• Infrastructure damage scenarios<br />
• Socio-economic impact<br />
• Emergency planning<br />
• Cost-benefit analysis for mitigation alternatives<br />
• Risk transfer and retention strategies<br />
• Preparing for reconstruction activities and financing<br />
Probabilistic risk <strong>model</strong>ing can be easily<br />
extended to other types of natural hazards
Thank you very much<br />
lyamin@uniandes.edu.co
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