09-08-2022

TueSdAy, AuguST 9, 2022
4
Acting Editor & Publisher : Jobaer Alam
e-mail: editor@thebangladeshtoday.com
Tuesday, August 9, 2022
Waking up to the crisis
in food and agricultural
products
T
here
is a pressing need on the part of a
country like Bangladesh which depends to
some extent on imported food grains and
a great deal on imported cooking oil, pulses,
spices and dairy products, about both the
soaring prices and scarcity of these
commodities in international market places.
The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO)
of the United Nations has issued a warning
recently that the bill for global food imports will
top $1,000 billion this year for the second time
ever putting the world dangerously close to a
new food crisis. The scenario projected in the
FAO's twice-yearly Food Outlook released last
week warned that the world should be prepared
for even higher prices for these products in the
year 2011 if domestic food productions in
importing countries do not increase
substantially. A similar food crisis was
witnessed from under production worldwide in
2007-8 when the imported food bill soared to $
1,031 billion. But ten years before that crisis,
the global food bill for imports averaged less
than $ 500 billion a year.
Prices of agricultural commodities have
surged following top producers of wheat for
exports, Russia and Ukraine, declaring a ban on
their exports. In this backdrop, the two most
populous countries, China and India, have met
setbacks in their food production. For
Bangladesh, India next door from which it
could import food grains conveniently and at
most competitive prices, this source is also
drying up. Although the Indian government
declared a relaxation of their ban on food grain
export in relation to Bangladesh, it remains to
be seen how far the offer can materialize in the
tight situation faced by India itself. Thus, there
are all the reasons for policy planners in
Bangladesh to be extremely proactive in
securing the import requirements of these
agricultural products. Not only the maximum
efficiency and timeliness must be attained in
importing food grains and other kitchen items,
the same sort of agility and competence need to
be there in importing raw cotton for the
country's textile industries because cotton
availability has also slumped from under
production worldwide.
Under the current volatile international
market conditions, government in Bangladesh
should form urgent policies and implement
them neatly to keep the supply lines of these
imported products smooth and the prices as
stable as possible. Constant contacts with the
sellers and building up of market intelligence,
plus forward buying at stable prices under
longer term contracted arrangements, could be
the answer to protect the country considerably
from the shocks of fast rising imported prices of
agricultural commodities.
Internally, the greatest stress will have to be
put on increasing overall production of food
grains. It appears that climate played a part in
reducing the last harvest of Aman rice. The
preparations are underway to raise the next
Boro crop during the coming winter months.
Every effort will have to be pushed to the
maximum with timely supply of all sorts of
inputs, including irrigation water, to farmers at
reasonable prices. Truly incentive prices will
also need to be declared to motivate farmers so
that the surplus Boro rice can be successfully
purchased from them for stocking up
adequately in government operated silos. This
would reduce the need for import and build up
greater basic food security. It is also imperative
to adopt a plan and execute it with the greatest
efficiency to much increase the cultivation of
non cereal crops such as oilseeds, spices, pulses
and cotton within the country.
highlight
Constant contacts with the sellers and
building up of market intelligence, plus
forward buying at stable prices under longer
term contracted arrangements, could be the
answer to protect the country considerably
from the shocks of fast rising imported prices of
agricultural commodities. Internally, the
greatest stress will have to be put on increasing
overall production of food grains and cotton.
China-Taiwan Conflict and Risk of War
Russia's invasion of Ukraine is a
reminder that Taiwan's fate will
ultimately be determined by military
power. The risk of military conflict in
Taiwan due to the Ukraine war is not an
abstract or remote possibility today. Beijing
views Taiwan as an integral part of the
People's Republic of China, governed by the
'One China' policy. The fundamental goal of
the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) is
Sino-Taiwan unification. It has been the
political promise of leaders for generations
since Mao Zedong. Senior CCP leaders say
military force will be used for unification if
peaceful measures fail. China passed the
Anti-Secession Law in 2005, Article 8 of
which included the legal justification for the
use of military force.
China's ambassador to the United States,
Qin Gang, recently told Americans, "China
is not committed to giving up non-peaceful
means for unification." PRC pressure
against Taiwan has increased under
President Xi Jinping, and the justification
for using force to resolve the Taiwan Strait
dispute has come to the fore. Xi's 2013
statement is plausible. The issue, he said,
"should not continue from generation to
generation." Unification is a key element of
Xi's "China Dream." Threats to deploy the
People's Liberation Army (PLA) to force
unification and invade Taiwan have been
intensified by two decades of military
modernization and expansion. Taiwan's
military officials call the naval transits of
Chinese aircraft carriers along Taiwan's east
and west coasts "encirclement missions."
Beijing's uncompromising position on
unification and economic and political
incentives to stimulate Taiwan's public
support for unification have created an
uneasy status quo. As its military power
grows, it becomes more challenging to deter
Beijing from using force against Taiwan. If
Beijing chooses a military solution to the
Taiwan problem; Japan and Australia will
further complicate the situation by directly
participating in the risks and consequences
of a Taiwan cross-strait conflict. Giving
Australia long-range weapons, including
Tomahawk missiles and nuclear-powered
submarines, as part of the 2021 Australia-
UK-US AUCAS deal is apparently part of an
effort to deter China from using force. But it
cannot suppress China at all.
Australia needs 12 years to develop
submarines under Aucas treaty; During this
period, many events can change the account
of the situation. China will not sit and suck
their fingers for so many years. Japan is also
a pioneer in opposing China. Former Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe said, "Taiwan's
emergency is also an emergency for Japan,
and therefore an emergency for the Japan-
US alliance." Southeast Asian countries
have so far not engaged in the Taiwan crossstrait
issue, preferring instead to limit
economic ties with Taiwan on an informal
Russia, EU continue transition to wartime economies
Having declared victory over the
"economic blitzkrieg" of Western
sanctions in March, Russian
President Vladimir Putin must contend with
continued Western financial support to
Ukraine as it combats Russian forces. In
addition, the Kremlin will be forced to
finance the reconstruction and integration
of conquered Ukrainian territory.
With costs mounting, Putin has
increasingly promoted the need to fortify the
Russian economy's immediate and longterm
position. In April, the head of Russia's
Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, stated that
the Russian economy would see a
"structural transformation" during the
second and third quarters this year to offset
inflation, supply-chain issues, and reduced
imports.
To alleviate domestic concerns related to
the cost of the war, the Kremlin increased
minimum-wage and pension payments by
10% in May. The initiative also appeared to
help muffle any domestic opposition on
June 30, when two bills were submitted to
the lower house of Russia's parliament, the
Duma, to give the government greater
control over the domestic economy.
The first bill will allow Russia to compel
domestic companies into accepting
government contracts and supply the goods
and services required for what it calls its
"special military operation" to the armed
forces.
To reassure the business community that
this bill would not impact them negatively,
Deputy Prime Minister Yury Borisov said
the proposed law would "not provide for
compulsory conversion of civilian small and
medium-sized enterprises for the needs of
the armed forces." Instead, the bill would be
primarily aimed at companies in the defense
sector that already work with the
government.
The second bill, which will introduce
changes in the federal labor law, permits the
government to overcome potential labor
shortages by allowing it to make employees
work overtime, at night, and on weekends
and holidays. Even after agreements are
signed, the government will be able to alter
basis. Singapore is a notable exception,
having military ties with Taiwan. Taiwan's
military facilities can be used by Singapore.
This relationship predates the
establishment of Singapore-PRC
diplomatic relations in 1992. It should be
remembered here that Israel maintains
Singapore as a military hub for Southeast
Asia and Israel manufactures and stores
many weapons here, although Singapore is
not yet under any military threat and
complexity. However, Singapore does not
offer any security guarantees to Taiwan, nor
does the US have a law similar to the
Taiwan Relations Act. Singapore has been
the most outspoken of Southeast Asian
countries on concerns about US-China
tensions, including the Taiwan issue.
As Singaporean Prime Minister Lee Hsien
Loong summed up at the 2015 Shangri-La
Dialogue, 'no country wants to choose sides
between the United States and China', not
choosing sides is a popular idea, but it does
not take into account Singapore's own
values and agency. In some situations,
Singapore will make policy based on its own
interests, not taking into account PRC or US
preferences. Moreover, Taiwan lacks
diplomatic relations with any Southeast
Asian state or UN status, making its
sovereignty ambiguous. This lack of
recognition is believed to have given
Singapore and Southeast Asian countries a
justification for not choosing sides in the
Taiwan Strait conflict.
Although ASEAN is not designed to face
external security threats or prevent
aggression outside its member states, it can
call on all parties to act with restraint in the
event of a crisis. If China loses hope of
peaceful unification and implements the
decision to use military force on Taiwan, it
will undoubtedly create negative political,
economic and security risks for Southeast
Asia. The Taiwan cross-strait military
conflict undermines ASEAN's most
fundamental foundations. Peaceful
resolution of disputes rather than violence,
as outlined in Article 13 of the 1976 Treaty of
Amity and Cooperation in Southeast Asia
(TAC), is the foundation of ASEAN.
It is possible that ASEAN will call on all
parties to exercise restraint and avoid
violence, not excluding China. But Beijing's
threat of force against Taiwan will raise
strategic concerns among ASEAN member
states, especially those that have their own
the terms of any contract.
The Kremlin has indicated that without
these "special economic measures," Russia's
military campaign in Ukraine risks grinding
to a halt. After being adopted by the Duma
on July 5, the bills now await further review
before they can be signed by Putin into law.
These measures are part of Russia's
continuing attempts to stabilize its economy
amid rising global economic instability.
Despite Western efforts to isolate Russia's
large foreign-currency reserves, the Kremlin
is also still able to access about half of the
US$600 billion it built up to protect itself
since 2014, after the annexation of Crimea.
Russia has attempted to develop rival
payment systems and trade networks with
China, promoted "a new reserve currency"
for international trade to erode the
dominance of the US dollar, and supported
other similar measures to safeguard its
economy.
So far, however, the Kremlin's saving
grace has been the drastic increase in energy
prices since it invaded Ukraine in February.
Even compared with 2021, which saw
relatively high tax revenues for the Russian
government, collections were up more than
30% in April 2022 compared with April
2021, despite significant reductions in
European demand for Russian energy.
European leaders have called for a more
assertive response to the global economic
instability similar to the decisive actions
taken against Russia.
On June 13, French President Emmanuel
Macron declared that Europe required a
"wartime economy" to manage the
economic fallout from the conflict and to
reinforce its strategic autonomy. On July 6,
NAyeem ISlAm NIBIR
JohN P Ruehl
territorial disputes with China. If Beijing
starts a conflict, it will cause a lot of
confusion. There is also the fear of
eventually becoming a victim of Chinese
military coercion over their own disputes.
The security situation in the Philippines will
suffer the most if conflict breaks out. The
'Bashi Channel' is a strategically important
check point for Chinese naval vessels,
especially PLA naval submarines in the
South China Sea.
In battle, commanders will seek to
dominate the areas in and around the
Channel. Philippine territorial air and sea
boundaries will undoubtedly directly affect
the conflict. US and Chinese naval and air
A conflict or minor skirmish would not only disrupt supply chains and
economic activity on Taiwan. But Taiwanese-invested companies in
China will likely reduce their operations, including paying mainland
workers. Relying on integrated manufacturing bases in both China and
Taiwan will further disrupt Southeast Asian and global supply chains.
forces are unlikely to confine hostilities to a
war zone around Taiwan. Taiwan's crossstrait
conflict will undoubtedly involve
Southeast Asia, albeit reluctantly. Countries
that want a sustained U.S. military presence
in the region may find themselves
confronting Beijing. Smaller countries will
be more actively pressured to reject the US
military or to reduce its activities in the
region. Military success in Taiwan would
establish China a sphere of influence in
Southeast Asia. This is a very difficult
matter.
Resisting an emboldened China, the use
of military force to successfully occupy
Taiwan will force China's adversary, the US,
to adopt a different strategy. Furthermore,
China's dominance of the South China Sea
and its sea lanes will affect the security and
economy of all Southeast Asian states as
well as states dependent on sea lanes in the
South China Sea. If China unites the PLA to
annex Taiwan and fails. But it will make
China fall like a dark cloud into a pit of
misery like Russia. Taiwan's economy is
large, ranking 23rd in the world by GDP,
behind only Indonesia in Southeast Asia. Its
industries are integrating into regional
supply chains and Taiwan is a major source
of foreign direct investment in Southeast
Asia.
A conflict or minor skirmish would not
only disrupt supply chains and economic
activity on Taiwan. But Taiwanese-invested
companies in China will likely reduce their
operations, including paying mainland
workers. Relying on integrated
manufacturing bases in both China and
Taiwan will further disrupt Southeast Asian
and global supply chains. More
importantly, economic activity across China
the French government announced it was
nationalizing its nuclear company,
Électricité de France (EDF).
On July 22, the German government
provided a multibillion-euro bailout to the
major gas-importing company Uniper,
which was the first energy company in the
country.
However, these maneuvers are merely a
reflection of Europe's wider economic
vulnerability through energy. After the US
and China, the 27 states of the European
The second bill, which will introduce changes in the federal labor
law, permits the government to overcome potential labor shortages
by allowing it to make employees work overtime, at night, and on
weekends and holidays. even after agreements are signed, the
government will be able to alter the terms of any contract.
Union form the third-largest energy market
in the world. Much of their energy supply
comes from non-member states, notably
Russia.
And even though the West's economic
strength far outstrips Russia's, money alone
cannot solve the issue of dwindling energy
supplies stemming from sanctions and
Kremlin initiatives to cut energy exports.
In Germany, the "complete and
permanent shutoff of the remaining Russian
natural-gas supplies to Europe" could result
in a GDP loss of 4.8% between 2022 and
2024 in comparison to the 2021 gross
domestic product, states a working paper by
the International Monetary Fund.
The German government already
escalated from Level 1 ("early warning") of
its three-tier emergency gas plan to Level 2
("alarm") on June 23. Level 3 ("emergency")
would allow the government to impose
rationing and to seize control over the
allocation of natural gas countrywide.
Austria, Denmark, Sweden, the
Netherlands and other countries have also
recently raised emergency gas measures.
The EU has sought to introduce collective
energy-saving measures to alleviate pain
will be disrupted by massive military
mobilization efforts. Commercial aviation
and maritime trade will be affected; Aircraft
and ships would be re-routed away from
conflict zones and wartime risk insurance
would increase, while hoarding and
uncertainty would increase costs, fueling
inflation.
Another concern is labor mobility
between Taiwan and Southeast Asia, which
is both a political and economic issue.
According to Taiwan's Ministry of Labor,
before the Covid-19 pandemic, Taiwan had
a large number of workers from Southeast
Asia, namely Vietnam, Indonesia and the
Philippines. This number is expected to
increase after the government's
immigration policy reforms. Taiwan is
therefore an important source of
remittances in Southeast Asia. A large
number of citizens of Southeast Asian
countries stationed there will face threats in
the Taiwan conflict. Southeast Asian
countries are supposed to have a red line on
peaceful resolution of disputes, just as
ASEAN has a policy.
ASEAN is a cooperative and inclusive
Indo-Pacific concept. Also its center point
needs to be stronger for dispute resolution.
As such, many believe that ASEAN needs to
be equipped like NATO. ASEAN and
Southeast Asian countries have shown little
enthusiasm to directly intervene and
contribute to efforts to dissuade Putin. A
military conflict in Europe undoubtedly has
an impact on Southeast Asia, in the form of
economic disruption and inflationary
pressures. At the start of the Cold War in
1956, US Secretary of State John Foster
Dulles declared neutrality an 'immoral and
short-sighted concept' as he sought to unite
America's allies in competition with the
Soviet Union.
President Dwight D. Eisenhower,
rejecting this claim, recognized India's and
other countries' commitment to nonalignment,
noting that the United States
itself had once remained neutral and
avoided involvement in European conflicts.
The question is not how Southeast Asian
countries can choose to avoid Taiwan
conflict, remain neutral, or side with the
three largest economies. The question is,
can they assess that the war on their
doorstep is a distant problem and one they
must stay away from at all costs? Or they
will move toward a peaceful settlement of
the dispute with all parties, pressuring
Beijing to contribute to efforts to deter
China from using force. It is important to
assess how far they are prepared to protect
core Southeast Asian interests.
Nayeem Islam Nibir is a young generation
political leader and columnist in
Bangladesh. He can be reached :
nayemulislamnayem148@gmail.com.
among member states and increase
institutional solidarity.
The meeting of the European Commission
on July 19 saw the EU attempt to introduce
the right to impose compulsory gas
rationing among member states. But such
proposals have faced significant resistance
from both the more pro-Russian elements
within European politics and the wider
political class.
On July 13, for example, Hungary
announced an energy emergency plan that
included restricting the flow of gas and other
energy sources to other countries in the
European energy market. The decision
prompted criticism from European Energy
Commissioner Kadri Simson.
On July 21, Spain and Portugal
announced they would not support the EU
initiative to reduce the bloc's natural-gas
usage by 15%.
The suggestion by a German
parliamentarian in July that Eastern
European countries could share gas with
Germany also resulted in pushback from
several Polish politicians who have
previously criticized Germany's increasing
purchases of Russian natural gas since the
country's annexation of Crimea in 2014 until
2022.
As energy concerns push European
countries into pursuing self-preservation
policies over solidarity, the EU has
suggested ambitious price-relief initiatives.
Alongside the US, the EU unveiled a push
for a price cap on Russian oil in early July.
Among other issues, however, this would
require cooperation with major buyers like
China and India, which have already been
receiving Russian oil at below-market value,
as well as coordination with the
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries, which has little reason to take
steps to lower oil prices.
John P Ruehl is an Australian-American
journalist living in Washington, DC. He is a
contributing editor to Strategic Policy and a
contributor to several other foreign-affairs
publications. He is currently finishing a
book on Russia to be published in 2022