MARKET & TE CHNOLOGY
MARKET & TE CHNOLOGY TRENDS LCD TV SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS OF TRENDS BY MEKO By Bob Raikes, Meko There’s no question that flat panel TV is again a major topic at IFA this year and the announcements have been dominated by LCD TV set makers. On one hand, LCD makers are feeling very confident and aggressive about continuing to build their volumes and market shares, but on the other hand, there is some nervousness because of the 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 32'' global supply and demand situation. LCD TV set makers at IFA have shown some fantastically good looking sets, with very slim cabinets, stunning contrast and colour performance and even new 200Hz modes that are fixing one of the final weaknesses of LCDs – the performance on fast moving video. Not all of these features will be availa- Q106 Q206 Q306 Q406 Q107 Q207 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 37'' FULL HD ble on the same sets. For example, slim sets currently can’t have the best visual performance (slim sets use side-mounted white LEDs while the sets with the best colour performance will have RGB LEDs) and the sets with 200Hz may not have LED backlights at all! However, the key for LCD set makers is that they can start to challenge the strong arguments of PDP makers that they have the best visual performance. Panasonic currently has the best PDP technology, especially after it acquired the Pioneer PDP technology recently, but part of its new technology will only come into play when its new and massive PDP plant comes on line in Japan next year. If the LCD makers can get these new products into the market quickly, they may make it difficult for PDP to compete, except on price, and that will be tough! Price is likely to be an issue because LCD panel prices have been falling because of some oversupply. There are only three really big uses for large LCDs: notebook PCs, monitors and TVs. The notebook market has been strong, but monitors have been weak and TV has been weaker than some hoped in China during the Olympics because of the effects of the earthquake in the spring. Now, the peak sales season for LCD TV panels is in the third quarter of the year, as set makers buy the panels that they will need for Q4 finished TV sales. Analysts had expected that LCD supply would be very tight around July and August. That encouraged PC makers to stock up with notebook panels in Q2. However, their sales were weak in Q2 so THE SWITCH TO DIGITAL TV IN EUROPE By Bob Raikes, Meko LCD PANEL PRICES 37'' HD 42'' HD 42'' FULL HD 22'' Monitor their demand for more has been weaker than expected in Q3. This factor combined with some TV overstock in Europe and slower demand than expected in China, has meant that the expected LCD shortage didn’t arrive and panel prices have been going down, especially for monitor panels. 22” panels have gone down from 9 in June to 6 according to DisplaySearch, a drop of 27% in just two months. This panel price drop may slow down as some LCD makers are reducing their production levels to try to get supply and demand more into balance. However, consumers in Europe can expect some very good TVs and monitors at fantastic prices over the next few months. In the past this kind of price dip has only lasted a couple of quarters, so make the most of it! For further research reports visit : www.meko.com.uk One of the factors that makes the European market so interesting is the diversity of views and approaches. On that basis, the development of digital TV must be absolutely fascinating, as it is very, very diverse! Every government and broadcaster in Europe want to make the most of digital technology to deliver more channels with higher quality (the broadcasters) or free up areas of broadcast spectrum to sell (the governments). However, every country in Europe is approaching the change with a different broadcast and political history, different TV delivery markets and different timetables, although the EU would like all of its members to switch to digital by 2012. The switch to digital is affecting terrestrial TV (delivered through an aerial), cable TV, satellite TV and is allowing the development of IPTV, the supply of TV programmes through the Internet. Of course, in a technology-driven market, the slow pace of politics means that the technology often changes during the process and this is true of Digital TV. The early countries to adopt digital TV by aerial, used the MPEG2 compression standard, as used for recording DVDs and for standard definition on digital cable and satellite systems. This was quite efficient for Standard Definition TV images, allowing four or five digital channels in the space previously used for one analogue broadcast. However, because of the parallel trend to High Definition (HD), there was a need to develop better compression systems, and MPEG4 was adopted (also known as H.264) for HD compression. Eventually, it is hoped that MPEG4 will be twice as efficient as MPEG2 in squeezing video into the smallest file and stream sizes, so that the largest numbers of channels can be carried and the highest definition achieved. Later countries in adopting digital TV have wondered why they should use the older MPEG2 technology for standard definition as well. As a result, countries that have made recent decisions about digital broadcasting, such as Ireland, have chosen MPEG4 even for standard definition. This will affect cross-border markets. For example, Ireland and Northern Ireland share languages and have tended to watch each others’ programmes. However, in the future, programmes in Northern Ireland will be in MPEG2, and TVs with integrated digital decoders (IDTVs) for the North will not work in the South. Many countries in Eastern Europe will adopt MPEG4, while in Western Europe, countries will adopt the technology only after the analogue transmissions are switched off in 2012, together with a new transmission system called DVB- T2. That means that set top boxes and IDTVs bought today for MPEG2 will not get the channels available with the later technology when HD arrives. In competition with this complicated changeover for terrestrial products, the simplicity of getting all the channels from a cable, satellite or IPTV supplier may be Bob Raikes, Founder, Meko very attractive for TV viewers. The downside for consumers in Europe is that this fragmentation and complication makes it very expensive for TV brands to develop products for Europe as there are so many variations and less volume than markets such as the US. 16 www.ifa-international.org IFA International • Monday, 1 st September 2008
MARKET & TECHNOLOGY TRENDS THE FUTURE OF HOME PROJECTORS by Jo Stephens Texas Instrument's next generation of projectors — DLP, pocket and LED — are smaller, lighter and brighter. We asked John Reder, Texas Instrument's regional manager for EMEA, to tell us more about how the market for projectors is evolving. John Reder, Texas Instrument’s regional manager for EMEA How is the market for projectors evolving in terms of their role as 'projection engines'? This year has been a good one for projectors. In fact, the second quarter was up about 37% year-on-year. So we are seeing a lot of strong growth, especially in Europe and EMEA — which is, in fact, the top region for growth right now. From a DLP [digital light processing] standpoint, our market share grew by around 50% in the first quarter to 56.5%. So all in all, business is great right now. What proportion of the DLP chips sold today are full HD? From the DLP side, about 8% are now 720p and 1080p, so the primary market is still business applications, which means SVGA [super video graphics array] and XGA [extended graphics array]. A lot of SVGA devices are now going into homes and we are also seeing a move towards wide XGA. We think this is significant — most laptops and monitors are now in the wide-format display and we are expecting projectors to follow suit. market. Where is it headed — and are there regional differences in this sector? "I think everything is pointing towards 1080p. Customers are now familiar with the full-HD format. A lot of the flat-panel sets show advertising in 1080p and content is now also available in the 1080p format. In terms of regional differences, HD broadcasting is slower in Europe than in the US, but there isn't much in it. So I think people are buying up the format for future-proofing, realising that it's rapidly becoming the industry standard." The home-cinema market is growing in America, but not in Europe. Do you see that changing? I think the dynamics are different in the US. There, people are more likely to have a spare room that they can dedicate to a home theatre. But having said that, we think there are definitely opportunities in Europe. LCoS [liquid crystal on silicon] projectors have been making inroads into the market. Are you concerned about this? say that LCoS in various forms have been shipping for about the same length of time as we have — in other words, about 20 years. But if you look at the market, it still really comes down to DLP and one other format. Today, LCoS only accounts for 0.5% of the total projector market. What are the 'sweet spots' in the market? Where should resellers be pushing harder? I think the wide format is one — though I'm not sure a lot of our customers understand the benefits of going wide, such as compatibility with laptops and more pixels on the screen. In terms of home theatre, a lot of the projectors sold are entry-level SVGA devices, which give standard definition. I suspect a lot of people bought them because they weren't sure that they were going to enjoy the projector experience. A lot of them would probably now be ready to step up to an HD machine — so I think that's an opportunity for repeat business. What innovations are you unveiling at this year's IFA? We will be showcasing a LED 1080p front-projector home-theatre concept. I think what people will be seeing is the future of home projectors. LED offers so many benefits: much better colour saturation, for example, as well as 'instant on' and never having to replace the illumination source. And LED not only has a long life, but you can also achieve better contrast with it. We will also be demonstrating what we call our Pico projector, which is able to make very small projections. available for handheld and mobile projection products, been received? The products have not yet started shipping, but the concept has already received a lot of interest because it takes projection to a whole new level. The convenience factor of walking around with it in your pocket and pulling it out for a presentation any time you want is very attractive. Rear-projection TV is having a hard time in Europe. Do you see any future for this technology here? I think rear projection is mostly a US play right now. The larger homes in the US means they are better able to accommodate screens of 50 inches or more. What's new in the office and meeting-room market? I think people are starting to recognise the advantages of filter-free projectors, which mean you don't have to go around cleaning filters. Many of the filtered projectors need to be cleaned after every 100-200 hours of use, which can add up to several filter cleanings a year. Then there is the trend towards wide format, which is really starting to catch on. DLP has long been popular in the home-cinema Of course, we watch all our competitors closely. I would How has the DLP Pico chipset, which is now IFA International • Monday, 1 st September 2008 www.ifa-international.org 17
