Sources, methods and classificationsData on demographic trends used in the present report are taken from the 2012 Revision of theofficial United Nations world population estimates and projections (United Nations, Department ofEconomic and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2013). In addition, data on labour force participationwere obtained from the International Labour Organization (2011) and data on statutory retirement agefrom the United States Social Security Administration (2013). Data on living arrangements and maritalstatus were compiled from United Nations (2012).The population estimates and projections, which are prepared biennially by the Population Divisionof the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, provide the standardand consistent set of population figures that are used throughout the United Nations system as the basisfor activities requiring population information. In the 2012 Revision of the World Population Prospects,standard demographic techniques were used to estimate the population by age and sex, as well as trends intotal fertility, life expectancy at birth, infant mortality and international migration for the years 1950through 2010, from data available from censuses and post-enumeration surveys; demographic and healthsurveys; population and vital registration systems; scientific reports and data collections; and from dataand estimates provided by international agencies. The resulting estimates provided the basis from whichthe population projections follow. In the 2012 Revision, the population projections are based on aprobabilistic (Bayesian) method for projecting total fertility and life expectancy at birth. This method isbased on empirical fertility and mortality trends estimated for all countries of the world for the period1950 to 2010. The present report draws on the medium variant population projections through the year2050. 1The countries and areas identified as statistical units by the Statistics Division of the United Nationsand covered by the above estimates and projections, are grouped geographically into six major areas:Africa; Asia; Europe; Latin America and the Caribbean; Northern America; and Oceania. Those majorareas are further divided geographically into 21 regions. In addition, the regions are summarized, forstatistical convenience, into two general groups―more developed and less developed―on the basis ofdemographic and socio-economic characteristics. The less developed regions include all regions ofAfrica, Asia (excluding Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean, and Oceania (excluding Australia andNew Zealand). The more developed regions include all other regions plus the three countries excludedfrom the less developed regions. The group of least developed countries, as defined by the United NationsGeneral Assembly in its resolutions (59/209, 59/210 and 60/33) in 2007, comprises 49 countries. SeeAnnex II for further detail.1 Further information about data sources and methods underlying the estimates and projections of population can be found on theInternet at http://esa.un.org/wpp/sources/country.aspx and http://esa.un.org/unpp/index.asp?panel=4iv World Population Ageing 2013
ContentsPagePreface .......................................................................................................................................... iiiSources, methods and classifications ........................................................................................... ivExplanatory notes ......................................................................................................................... ixExecutive summary ...................................................................................................................... xiIntroduction .................................................................................................................................. 1ChapterI. DEMOGRAPHIC DETERMINANTS AND SPEED OF POPULATION AGEING ............................ 3II. THE CHANGING BALANCE AMONG AGE GROUPS ............................................................. 17III. DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE OF THE OLDER POPULATION ..................................................... 31IV. CHARACTERISTICS OF THE OLDER POPULATION ............................................................. 43V. INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSFERS AND WELL-BEING IN OLD AGE .................................. 59Conclusion ................................................................................................................................... 75References .................................................................................................................................... 77AnnexesI. Definition of the indicators of population ageing ........................................................... 83II. Classification of major areas and regions ....................................................................... 85III. Annex tables .................................................................................................................... 89Text tables5.1. Poverty headcount ratio (percentage of population living in households with anincome below the national poverty line) for the whole population, the olderpopulation and children, selected countries in Latin America,late 2000s…………………………………………………………………………….. 675.2. Poverty headcount ratio (percentage of population living in households with anequivalised income below half of the national median equivalised income) for thewhole population and the older population, selected countries in Latin America,late 2000s…………………………………………………………………………….. 69United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs ǀ Population Divisionv
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