Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Technology Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Technology

Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Technology
Fuel Cell & Hydrogen Energy Conference
Charlie Freese
Executive Director
General Motors
February 14, 2011
Washington D.C.

What comes next?
Sometimes we are just too close
Perspective

Overview
Perspective
Historical Look at:
Technology Investment
Infrastructure Investment
What does that mean for us?
What’s Next?

Five Stories from History
Two on Technology
• Apollo Space Program
• Nuclear Energy Age
Three on Infrastructure

Apollo Space Program
What makes a “moon shot”
Costs & benefits of
technology investments

Technological Innovation
Human travel to the moon has been a long standing dream
Jules Verne novel –“From Earth to the Moon,” 1865

Race to the Moon Begins
Soviet Union’s Space Program Firsts
First Man Made Satellite orbits Earth –October 4, 1957
Yuri Gagarin ‐ First Human in Space –April 12, 1961
Alexei Leonov ‐ First Human Extra‐Vehicular Excursion –March 18,

Technological Innovation – Competition
Clear vision established –May 25, 1961
"I believe that this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal,
before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning
him safely to the earth."

Technological Innovation
Putting Technological Reach & Risk/Reward into Perspective
What makes a “Moon Shot”
Rapid Technological Advancement
Disruptive Technology –Game Changing
Vision for Success –But No Clear Path (means) to the End State
Are fuel cells & hydrogen infrastructure a “Moon Shot?”
Are the costs justified & the rewards worthwhile?

GM Electrovan (1966)
World’s first hydrogen fuel cell vehicle
At this point, commercial hydrogen fuel cells were still a “Moon Shot”

Technological Innovation
When is a trip to the moon, no longer a “Moon Shot?”
7 lunar landings
Saturn V: 363 ft tall; 6.5 Million pounds (fueled by liquid H 2 & O 2 )
Required a 52 story vehicle assembly building
One quarter the height of the Empire State Building
42 ft. longer than the Spruce Goose & 131 ft. longer than Boeing 747
When we have been there and we know we can do it

Vehicle Deployment
Real World Experience
119 Project Driveway Vehicles in 6 Countries
Approaching 2 MILLION accumulated miles
Performed through 3 full winters
20,000 refueling events, 47,000 kg H 2
Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are no longer “Moon Shots”
H 2 Fuel Cell technology is commercial ready
• Performance proven in field, durability proven in labs
• Cost pathway identified (Comparable to other adv. tech.)

Global H 2 Supply
How much is already there?
Today: > 50,000,000 tons per annum
Others
1%
Chemicals
3%
World car park
Ammonia
50%
Oil
Refining
45%
35%
North America: Oil refinery H 2 alone, could fuel 21 million fuel cell vehicles
A 2% increase in U.S. natural gas would support 10 million fuel cell vehicles
Today’s Global H 2 production could fuel > 300 million fuel cell vehicles

Hydrogen Infrastructure
Key Building Blocks Exist

Unintended Benefits –How do you quantify it?
Spin‐Offs from U.S. Space Program
Velcro Infrared Ear Thermometers Enriched Baby Food
Freeze‐dried Food Artificial Limb Technology Water Purification
Dustbusters Aircraft Anti‐Icing Systems Tang
Cochlear Implants
Teflon
Solar Energy
Highway Safety – Pavement Grooves
Ventricular Assist Device
Fuel Cell Technology
Improved Radial Tires
$25.4B - 1974
$125B
(today)
The benefits you seek may turn out to be the tip of the iceberg
Difficult to quantify, but undisputed benefits to society & industry

Relationship between H 2 & Renewables
Case Study –German Wind Energy (2008)
• Renewable energy sources fluctuate
dramatically
• Although solar is more predictable, its
$/kWh is 5X more than wind
• Placing significant wind energy on line
necessitates an energy buffering strategy
‐ otherwise electricity generation costs
can increase
1) DEWI‐Report, 30.6.2008
2) Bundesverband Windenergie e.V., 20.11.2008

Hydrogen
The Energy Buffer in the Renewable Energy System
8000
Source: KBB underground
(MW)
6000
4000
This much could be fed into an
underground hydrogen reservoir
(2 Mio m 3 salt cavern):
600,000 MWh
(equals 3.6 Mio tank fills)
200
0
0
Oct 1 Oct 3 Oct 5 Oct 7 Oct 9 Oct 11 Oct 13
Only hydrogen offers energy storage capacity for several days

Fuel Cells & Hydrogen Energy Jobs
Most scenarios indicate substantial job creation opportunity
Jobs Created or Retained in H 2
Infrastructure
Jobs Created or Retained in Green Energy
Reference:Jeffrey Greenblatt,Clean Energy 2030
The two largest hydrogen companies are US based. Commensurate
with the above projections, H 2 capacity increase to meet 2020
demand could encourage 200,000 new jobs by 2020 based on DOE
rollout scenarios.
Fuel cell jobs expected to be at least as great as those created in the
solar & wind sectors
2010 Industry Review conservatively estimates fuel cell manufacturing will
experience its largest job growth over next 10 years, with almost 700,000
cumulative manufacturing jobs created or retained, globally
Could create more than 1 million new jobs in total, (including fuel cell installation,
servicing, & maintenance).
Expectation is that 25% of those jobs will reside in U.S.

The Dawn of the Nuclear Energy Age
Cost of making a wrong
decision
Once you cross the line, can
you go back?

Nuclear Energy Age Begins –“Uranverein”
Reactor in Haigerloch –Germany April 1939 ‐ 1945
1934 Fermi created radioactive element bombarding Uranium with neutrons, n
Rome
1938 Nuclear Fission Discovered - Otto Hahn & Firtz Strassmann , Berlin
German nuclear program begins April 1939, during World War II
In 1942 it was concluded the technology would not influence the war
Control transferred from the Heereswaffenamt (Army Ordinance Office) to
the Reichsforschungsrat (Reich Research Council)

Nuclear Energy Age Begins –Chicago Pile‐1
University of Chicago –December 2, 1942
$2.4B
$24B (today)
Danger in disregarding critical technologies too quickly
Secret Manhattan Project with $6,000 initial investment for CP‐1
CP‐1 initially ran for 28 minutes –The World was unaware
Project ran through 1947

Technological Arms Race
July 1945 (Trinity)
Letting the genie out of the bottle
Eventually, a single technology developer can no longer set the pace

Ongoing Investment
First Vitrification Plant being built in CA – 2001 to 2019
$12B
(today)
Department of Energy still investing on back‐end, to treat nuclear waste

Fuel Cell Stack –Pre‐Development Status
Maximizing Cycles of Learning
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
Automotive Target
volumetric power density (kW/l)
gravimetric power density (kW/kg)
1997 1998 2000 2003 2004
St 3 ‐ 1997 St 4 ‐ 1998 Stack 2000 S2.1 ‐ 2003
S4 ‐ 2004
2010
Current
2007
2007
2007
2009
2010
2015+
Freeze
Power Density
Range
Cost Roadmap
Durability (in Lab)
Production Cost &
Field Durability
Fuel cell technology achieved auto‐competitive power density targets

Five Stories from History
Two on Technology
Three on Infrastructure
• Transcontinental Railroad
• Trans‐Alaska Pipeline
• Federal Interstate Highway System
GM Proprietary Information

Transcontinental Railroad
Decisiveness is a virtue
Unintended Benefits of
Technology

Infrastructure Investment
Transcontinental Railroad ‐ 1869
7 years to approve
6 years to build
$4.6B - 1880
>$300B
(today)
Longer to approve than to execute; Government – Industry collaboration
Broad ranging benefits, credited for accelerating the industrial revolution
Infrastructure investments with Government support changed competitive
landscape for the industrial revolution – but not without debate

Infrastructure Investment
Further High Speed Rail Investments ‐ 2011
$53B
Over 6
years
Passenger rail travel is still not profitable in the United States
Initial $8B proposed investment this year

Hydrogen Infrastructure
Germany & Japan Investing Nationally, U.S. Regionally
Plans exist in three major markets
National Academy of Science
• 2015 commercialization possible and desirable
• Recommendation: $ 55B estimated government contribution
$ 40B government buydown of early generation cost penalties to consumers
• Government needs to lead with consistency to reduce market risk
National Development Plan
• 2015 competitiveness established
• €1.4B program budget
METI
• 2015 start commercialization
• Infrastructure leads vehicles
Estimated Savings from switching
from Petroleum to H 2
(1)
$36B per year @ $100/barrel oil
Savings from H 2
Fuel Cells in CO 2
(1)
$108B through 2050 @ $120/ton
(1) Council on Competitiveness Nippon

Energy Crisis & Trans‐Alaska Pipeline
Crisis as motivation
Temporary measures versus
front‐end investment

Infrastructure Investment
1970’s Oil Embargo
Crises often cause dramatic action –not necessarily optimal action
Oil shortages fundamentally changed the World’s view of energy
Today ~ 14% of U.S. petroleum comes from Persian Gulf countries

Investment: Trans‐Alaska Oil Pipeline
Built between 1974‐1977
800 miles of pipeline – 48 inches in diameter
Built after the 1973 oil crisis sparked gasoline shortages
$8B
$31B
(today)
08JAN11 ‐ Leak shutdown the Trans‐Alaska pipeline
10 day shutdown depleted Alaska’s stockpile by 50%
18JAN11 ‐ Bypassed & restarted pumping
Event increased oil futures by 4% (largest in 6 weeks)
Temporary “bridge” investment, in response to a crisis (bought time)
Delivers ~11% of U.S. petroleum consumption
2020 – 2032: Could reach minimum sustainable capacity
Then pipeline must be removed –a legal requirement

Hurricane Katrina –May 29, 2005
Crisis
30 oil platforms damaged or destroyed
44 Oil Spills, with Over 7 Million Gallons of Oil Leaked
Nine refineries closed
24% of Gulf oil production affected - 18% of Gulf gas production affected
Not all costs can be computed up‐front
Unexpected events can dramatically influence energy availability
Costs can be substantial
Other oil related costs – CBO estimates the Iraq War cost $1.9 to 2.4T

Gulf Oil Spill of 2010
Crisis
35,000 to 60,000 barrels of oil leaked per day
Oil slick covered 2,500 square miles of ocean surface
Over $32B
July, 2010
Events can negatively influence long term petroleum availability

Two Oil Shocks –One Up & One Down
Commodity Prices Followed Similar Patterns
Automotive Development Period
Price volatility Inhibits technologies that require longer term
investment

Federal Interstate Highway System
Government’s role in
infrastructure investment
Timing is everything

Investment Model
German Autobahn System – 1933
First high speed, limited access road network in the World
Government investment on a national scale
Civilian & Military benefits

Investment
Interstate Highway System ‐ 1956
Started 23 years after Germany completed the Autobahn
1921 ‐ Initial Planning by Bureau of Public Roads & U.S. Army
1944 –Eisenhower influenced by German Autobahn for defense purposes
1956 –Eisenhower signed the Federal – Aid Highway Act of 1956

Investment –Long Term Perspective
Interstate Highway System
Completed with opening of I-70 I
in Glenwood Canyon - 1992
$114B - 1992
$460B
(today)
Government has a role in large, long‐term infrastructure
investments
35 years to complete

U.S. Renewable Resources
• Abundant U.S. renewable resources
• Only a fraction needed to fuel entire
US light duty fleet with H 2 (360
million vehicles by 2050)
• Economics of H 2 from biomass will
be favorable in many regions
• Off‐peak wind is next best
• Low‐cost PV would be game changer
Resource Biomass Solar
PV/CSP)
Theoretical
Potential
395
Million
H 2 cars
21
Billion
H 2 Cars
Wind
1,251
Million
H 2 Cars
Geothermal
270
Million
H 2 Cars

Biomass Pathways
How far can you go on an acre of biomass?
At one time this may have been a valid comparison

How costly is the Hydrogen Infrastructure?
Coast‐to‐Coast Hydrogen Infrastructure
Fueling Station & Charging Station Costs ~ $20B to $25B
The costs for a complete national infrastructure are roughly the same

Hawaii – Leveraging Existing Infrastructure
The Road to Hawaii’s Hydrogen Highway on Oahu

Why Hawaii?
Early Adopter Fleets ‐ All major branches of the military are present
Commercial fleet customers are present –rental cars
Limited land mass – infrastructure needs are concentrated
Bounded by water
Oahu has ~1 Million cars, but Hawaii has ~7.1 Million
Highest tourists/year
energy costs in the U.S.
Energy costs negatively affect 80% of the goods sold in Hawaii
Nearly all of their energy is imported, but growing renewables
Hawaii is at the point where renewables destabilize grid
Existing H 2 supply – 7,000 kg/day byproduct of gas processing
1,200 miles of existing pipeline for distribution on Oahu

Hawaii –Hawaii Hydrogen Initiative Signed
12 Companies, Government Agencies, & Universities
General Motors
The Gas Company
Aloha Petroleum
The U.S. Department of Energy
National Renewable Energy Laboratory
The University of Hawaii
The University of California – Irvine
The U.S. Pacific Command
The County of Hawaii
The State of Hawaii
Louis Berger & Associates
FuelCell Energy
Partnership to address infrastructure requirements

Hydrogen Infrastructure for Oahu (Illustrative)
20 ‐ 25 Stations could Cover Oahu’s Requirements
At lest 6 stations in
Northwest Oahu
at: Barbers Point
Waianae
Wahiawa
Waialua
Kahuku
Kaaawa
At least 15 stations in
Southeast Oahu Metro Areas
(illustrative placement)
10 miles
Hawaii is an effective launching point for H 2 infrastructure

Five Stories from History
Thoughts about what can we learn?
It is important to put technical reach into perspective
•Fuel cells & hydrogen infrastructure are not “moon shots”
We have done difficult things before
•Often it is more important to make a decision & get on with making it
the right decision; rather than studying it to death
Infrastructure investments can pay great dividends
•Often greater than the stated objectives
•The costliest solution is to do nothing
Government often makes large infrastructure investments
•These investments often come in times of crisis
•We can react better by being proactive
•Long term perspective is necessary

What will it take?
Focused execution
RESOLVE
COORDINATION
PERSISTANCE
COLLABORATION

What will it take?
Commitment

Thank you