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SPECIAL CAREER ISSUE • SPECIAL CAREER ISSUE • SPECIAL CAREER ISSUE<br />

Publications Agreement No. 41544521<br />

September 2008 • Issue #375<br />

The Membership Magazine of the <strong>American</strong> <strong>Statistical</strong> <strong>Association</strong><br />

Making a Name:<br />

Up-and-Coming Statisticians<br />

on the Verge of Great Things<br />

Statisticians in History


VISION STATEMENT<br />

To be a world leader in promoting statistical<br />

practice, applications, and research; publishing<br />

statistical journals; improving statistical education;<br />

and advancing the statistics profession.<br />

Executive Director<br />

Ron Wasserstein: ron@amstat.org<br />

Associate Executive Director and Director of Operations<br />

Stephen Porzio: steve@amstat.org<br />

Director of Programs<br />

Martha Aliaga: martha@amstat.org<br />

Director of Science Policy<br />

Steve Pierson: pierson@amstat.org<br />

Managing Editor<br />

Megan Murphy: megan@amstat.org<br />

Production Coordinators/Graphic Designers<br />

Melissa Muko: melissa@amstat.org<br />

Lidia Vigyázó: lidia@amstat.org<br />

Publications Coordinator<br />

Val Snider: val@amstat.org<br />

Advertising Manager<br />

Claudine Donovan: claudine@amstat.org<br />

Special Contributors<br />

Martha Aliaga • Keith Crank • Rosanne Desmone<br />

Rebecca Nichols • Rick Peterson<br />

Gladys Reynolds • Fritz Scheuren<br />

<strong>Amstat</strong> <strong>News</strong> welcomes news items and letters<br />

from readers on matters of interest to the association<br />

and the profession. Address correspondence to<br />

Managing Editor, <strong>Amstat</strong> <strong>News</strong>, <strong>American</strong> <strong>Statistical</strong><br />

<strong>Association</strong>, 732 North Washington Street, Alexandria<br />

VA 22314-1943 USA, or email amstat@amstat.org.<br />

Items must be received by the first day of the preceding<br />

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<strong>Amstat</strong> <strong>News</strong> (ISSN 0163-9617) is published<br />

monthly by the <strong>American</strong> <strong>Statistical</strong> <strong>Association</strong>, 732<br />

North Washington Street, Alexandria VA 22314-1943<br />

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and additional mailing offices. POSTMASTER: Send<br />

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N9A 6J5; returnsIL@imex.pb.com. Annual subscriptions<br />

are $50 per year for nonmembers. <strong>Amstat</strong> <strong>News</strong> is the<br />

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rates, see www.amstat.org/join or contact ASA Member<br />

Services at (888) 231-3473.<br />

<strong>American</strong> <strong>Statistical</strong> <strong>Association</strong><br />

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WEB SITE: www.amstat.org<br />

Printed in USA © 2008<br />

<strong>American</strong> <strong>Statistical</strong> <strong>Association</strong><br />

MISSION STATEMENT<br />

Support excellence in statistical practice, research,<br />

journals, and meetings. Work for the improvement<br />

of statistical education at all levels. Promote the<br />

proper application of statistics. Anticipate and<br />

meet the needs of our members. Use our discipline<br />

to enhance human welfare. Seek opportunities to<br />

advance the statistics profession.<br />

CAREER<br />

Read about the careers and<br />

lives of statisticians whose<br />

names are recognizable<br />

as both published<br />

authors and scientists<br />

DAY IN THE LIFE<br />

21 Life as a Stochastic Modeler<br />

Alan Gelfand, Duke University<br />

SPECIAL MATERIAL<br />

September 2008 • Issue #375<br />

STATISTICIANS IN HISTORY<br />

4 Kimiko Bowman<br />

Never Say Never<br />

7 Irene Hess<br />

Sampling Is in the Details<br />

11 Jack Chao-sheng Lee<br />

13 Paul Dixon Minton<br />

Building a Department<br />

25 On Becoming a Teacher<br />

Daren Starnes, The Lawrenceville School<br />

Statisticians and other experts<br />

offer career advice for<br />

those looking to sharpen<br />

their quantitative careers<br />

15 <strong>Mollie</strong> <strong>Orshansky</strong><br />

Author of the Poverty Thresholds<br />

30 What Does a Teaching Associate Professor Do?<br />

Pam Arroway, North Carolina State University<br />

28 Where Are Your Colleagues?<br />

38 Top Five Favorites<br />

CAREER GUIDE<br />

34 Snakes and Ladders: Building a<br />

Career in Statistics<br />

David L. Banks, Duke University<br />

54 Math Is Music; Statistics Is Literature<br />

(Or, Why Are There No Six-Year-Old Novelists?)<br />

Cover design by Megan Murphy<br />

HISTORY<br />

43 Are You Media Shy…or Media Savvy<br />

Rosanne Desmone,<br />

ASA Public Relations Specialist<br />

46 Making a Name:<br />

Up-and-Coming Statisticians on the<br />

Verge of Great Things<br />

DEPARTMENTS<br />

1 President's Invited Column<br />

61 Professional Opportunities


PRESIDENT’S INVITED COLUMN<br />

Statistics in Monitoring the Nation’s Health<br />

Nathaniel<br />

Schenker<br />

This month, I have invited Nathaniel Schenker of the National Center for Health Statistics to discuss how that<br />

agency provides information about the nation’s health. Since before 1960, NCHS has monitored health statistics,<br />

initially under the stewardship of Forrest Linder. It is a wonderful resource for data and information.<br />

2 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

I’ve spent the past nine years at the<br />

National Center for Health<br />

Statistics (NCHS), having previously<br />

taught biostatistics at UCLA for<br />

11 years and worked at the U.S.<br />

Census Bureau for three years before<br />

that. NCHS, which is part of the<br />

Centers for Disease Control and<br />

Prevention, is the nation’s principal<br />

health statistics agency. Its motto is<br />

“Monitoring the Nation’s Health,”<br />

and its mission is to provide statistical<br />

information that will guide actions<br />

and policies to improve the health of<br />

the <strong>American</strong> people.<br />

What Is Done at NCHS?<br />

When I used to take my infant son<br />

for a medical check-up, the pediatrician<br />

would plot his height and<br />

weight on growth charts. Little did<br />

I know the charts were produced by<br />

NCHS and were based primarily on<br />

data from NCHS’ National Health<br />

and Nutrition Examination Survey<br />

(NHANES). Similarly, when cars<br />

began to use unleaded gasoline, I<br />

didn’t realize the formulation of policy<br />

to move away from leaded fuel was<br />

based on analyses of data on bloodlead<br />

levels from the NHANES. (For<br />

more on this policy, see the President’s<br />

Invited Column in the May issue of<br />

<strong>Amstat</strong> <strong>News</strong>).<br />

Indeed, NCHS collects and analyzes<br />

data and produces information<br />

for the public on a wide range of<br />

health topics, including vital events<br />

and demography, health conditions<br />

and behaviors, access to and quality<br />

of health care, and injuries and<br />

disabilities. Sources of NCHS data<br />

include birth and death certificates,<br />

as well as various sample surveys that<br />

collect information via review of<br />

medical records, personal interviews,<br />

physical and dental examinations,<br />

and laboratory tests.<br />

‘S’ Stands for ‘Statistics’<br />

Given that the “s” in NCHS stands for<br />

“statistics,” statisticians obviously have<br />

a major role in the work of the agency.<br />

As do many agencies in the federal<br />

statistical system, NCHS has separate<br />

divisions that focus on specific data collection<br />

systems and topics. Statisticians<br />

within these divisions work on the<br />

design and implementation of the<br />

data collections, analyses of the data,<br />

and preparation of the data for release<br />

to the public. Other statisticians (such<br />

as I) work in offices within the agency<br />

that focus more on cross-cutting analyses<br />

and research and on the development<br />

of statistical methodology, while<br />

also providing consultation to the data<br />

divisions. Examples of methodological<br />

research areas at NCHS include<br />

optimal strategies for sample design,<br />

questionnaire design, modeling and<br />

estimation, data mining, developing<br />

indexes of health, confidentiality, and<br />

handling missing data.<br />

Nathaniel Schenker, Senior Scientist for<br />

Research and Methodology, NCHS/CDC<br />

An NCHS statistician often works<br />

as part of a team, together with other<br />

statisticians as well as specialists<br />

in areas such as computer science,<br />

demography, economics, epidemiology,<br />

medicine, public health, and<br />

sociology. There are ample opportunities<br />

for individual research projects,<br />

as well. Moreover, collaborations frequently<br />

occur with researchers at other<br />

federal and local government agencies,<br />

in industry, and in academia.<br />

Mr. Academic Goes (Back) to<br />

Washington<br />

When I decided to leave my tenured<br />

academic job in UCLA's Department<br />

of Biostatistics in sunny California to<br />

return to the East Coast and work for<br />

the government, I was often asked,<br />

“Are you crazy? Why would you do<br />

that?” Well, there were a number of<br />

reasons, some of them personal, such<br />

as my growing up in Washington and<br />

the East Coast having a lot to offer.<br />

As a statistician, however, I was excited<br />

by the prospect of working at the<br />

source of health data that are important<br />

and of interest to many outside<br />

the agency. Indeed, at UCLA, I often<br />

ran across NCHS data and researchers<br />

analyzing them. Also, NCHS seemed<br />

like a relatively small, friendly agency,<br />

so I didn’t feel as though I’d get lost<br />

working there. And, it seemed to have<br />

a culture of conducting research, so<br />

I thought I’d be able to continue my


esearch career. (After coming to NCHS,<br />

I also became an adjunct professor in the<br />

Joint Program in Survey Methodology at<br />

the University of Maryland, so I didn’t have<br />

to abandon academia completely.) Finally,<br />

the Washington area has an exceptionally<br />

active statistical community. For example,<br />

it is home to the largest chapter of the ASA:<br />

the Washington <strong>Statistical</strong> Society.<br />

Do I miss being a full-time professor at a<br />

fine university? Yes. Am I glad that I changed<br />

jobs? Absolutely. Besides the fact that<br />

changing jobs every once in a while helps to<br />

'keep one’s blood flowing,' I’ve enjoyed the<br />

atmosphere and work at NCHS. I’m less of<br />

a free agent in some ways now than I was<br />

in academia (although I also don’t have to<br />

hustle for grant support the way I did), and<br />

there are some bureaucratic hassles involved<br />

in working for the government; but every<br />

job has its own administrative headaches,<br />

and any annoyances due to governmental<br />

red tape have been far outweighed by the<br />

opportunities I’ve had for interesting work.<br />

A Small Sample of My Projects<br />

To illustrate some of the statistical work<br />

that goes on at NCHS, I’ll briefly outline<br />

a couple of major projects in which I’ve<br />

been involved.<br />

In 1997, the Office of Management<br />

and Budget revised the standards for classifying<br />

federal data on race and ethnicity.<br />

A key provision was that respondents to<br />

federal data collections be given the option<br />

of choosing more than one race group to<br />

describe the person in question. Because the<br />

previous (1977) standards called for only a<br />

single race group to be reported, data collected<br />

under the 1977 standards are not<br />

comparable with data collected under the<br />

revised standards. This can cause problems<br />

in trend analysis, the calculation of a vital<br />

rate—for which the number of events in<br />

the numerator and the population size in<br />

the denominator can come from different<br />

sources using different standards—and in<br />

other types of studies that combine data<br />

classified under the two standards.<br />

The decennial census, a widely used<br />

source of denominators for vital rates, began<br />

allowing multiple-race reporting in 2000. To<br />

make the 2000 census data (and intercensal<br />

and postcensal estimates) comparable<br />

with data classified according to the 1977<br />

standards, NCHS, with assistance from the<br />

U.S. Census Bureau, produced “bridged”<br />

census counts by county, age, sex, and<br />

race—estimates of the counts that would<br />

have been obtained had the prior standards<br />

been in effect (www.cdc.gov/nchs/about/<br />

major/dvs/popbridge/popbridge.htm). The<br />

bridging process used models predicting<br />

responses under the prior standards from<br />

responses under the current standards and<br />

covariates. These bridging models were<br />

developed using data from NCHS’ National<br />

Health Interview Survey (NHIS), which has<br />

allowed multiple-race responses for many<br />

years, but which also asks multiple-race<br />

reporters for a single race group that best<br />

describes the person in question.<br />

I worked on many aspects of this project,<br />

but perhaps my biggest contributions were<br />

to the formulation of the overall approach<br />

used to solve the problem, the development<br />

of the bridging models, and the derivation<br />

of methods for assessing uncertainty in analyses<br />

that use the bridged data.<br />

A second project involved multiple<br />

imputation of missing income data. The<br />

NHIS provides a rich source of data for<br />

studying relationships between income<br />

and health and for monitoring health<br />

and health care for persons at different<br />

income levels. However, the nonresponse<br />

rates are high (roughly 30%) for two key<br />

items: total family income in the previous<br />

calendar year and personal earnings from<br />

employment in the previous calendar year.<br />

To handle this missing-data problem and<br />

allow analysts of the data to assess the<br />

uncertainty due to missing data, multiple<br />

imputation of these items has been<br />

performed for several years (www.cdc.gov/<br />

nchs/about/major/nhis/2006imputedincome.<br />

htm) in collaboration with researchers at<br />

the University of Michigan.<br />

Several features of the data made the<br />

project particularly challenging and interesting.<br />

First, the data are hierarchical<br />

in nature, with one of the key variables<br />

reported at the family level and the other<br />

reported at the person level. Second, there<br />

were cases in which the value of one variable<br />

(e.g., personal earnings) could be<br />

restricted by the value of another variable<br />

(e.g., whether the person was employed),<br />

but the values of both variables were missing<br />

simultaneously. Third, in some cases,<br />

family income and personal earnings needed<br />

to be imputed within bounds because<br />

partial information was available about<br />

them (e.g., when a range was provided for<br />

family income, rather than an exact dollar<br />

value). Finally, several variables of various<br />

types (continuous, categorical, count) were<br />

used as predictors, but they sometimes had<br />

small amounts of missingness as well.<br />

I was involved in many aspects of this<br />

project (as with the bridging project), but<br />

especially in developing and evaluating the<br />

methods for imputation, writing technical<br />

documentation, and consulting with analysts<br />

using the multiply imputed data.<br />

An Exciting, yet Sometimes<br />

‘Scary,’ Job<br />

The two projects just described have several<br />

general characteristics in common. First,<br />

they required teamwork, both among staff<br />

at NCHS and between NCHS and other<br />

organizations. Second, they required statistical<br />

research. In fact, both projects led<br />

to publications in JASA [98(464) and<br />

101(475)]. Third, the problems were<br />

complicated, and they required making<br />

assumptions and implementing approximations<br />

for their solution. Finally, there<br />

was great interest in the data, and people<br />

both inside and outside the agency were<br />

clamoring for release of the data while the<br />

work was going on.<br />

Projects with the second through fourth<br />

characteristics create the need to “push the<br />

envelope” with regard to methodology<br />

under time constraints while maintaining<br />

the integrity of the data. This results in a<br />

job that is exciting, yet sometimes ‘scary.’<br />

Challenges and Opportunities<br />

<strong>Statistical</strong> work at NCHS, and in the<br />

government in general, is challenging<br />

for administrative and technical reasons.<br />

For example, budgets are tight; costs are<br />

increasing for data collection, processing,<br />

and dissemination; there is a desire on the<br />

part of policymakers, researchers, and others<br />

for more information; and the protection<br />

of confidentiality is becoming more<br />

difficult. Oh, yes, and let’s not forget the<br />

famous “graying of the federal work force,”<br />

with many employees nearing retirement<br />

age.<br />

Of course, with challenges come<br />

opportunities. Difficulties due to sparse<br />

resources and conflicting desires and constraints<br />

with regard to data will need to be<br />

addressed through the creative development<br />

of efficient methods for collecting<br />

new data and methods for getting the most<br />

out of analyses of existing data. And the<br />

‘graying’ work force will result in openings<br />

for new generations of statisticians to carry<br />

out such work. ■<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 3


STATISTICIANS IN HISTORY<br />

4 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Kimiko Bowman<br />

Never Say Never<br />

Bowman Helps Provide Formula for Approximating the<br />

Distribution of Maximum Likelihood Estimators<br />

Val Snider<br />

ASA Publications Coordinator<br />

She could have been a horticulturist. She<br />

had, after all, thought it would be exciting<br />

to create new plants. But Kimiko Bowman,<br />

better known by her byline as K. O. Bowman,<br />

chose to be a statistician and help develop a formula<br />

for approximating the distribution of maximum<br />

likelihood estimators.<br />

It was by chance, really, that Bowman chose<br />

statistics. Some might even say statistics chose<br />

her. She began her college education majoring in<br />

home economics at Radford College. “I wanted<br />

to make sure I would graduate, and I thought<br />

home economics would be relatively easy,” said<br />

Bowman. “In my second year, the president of<br />

the college called me into his office and advised<br />

me to change my major to the science field. He<br />

thought my future would be much better in science.<br />

I [had] liked mathematics ever since I was a<br />

small child, so I immediately changed my major<br />

to math and chemistry.”


Kimiko Bowman, who became a U.S. citizen in 1958,<br />

was the first ‘foreigner’ to receive a doctorate from the<br />

University of Tokyo.<br />

About a year later, Bowman graduated with a<br />

bachelor’s degree and won a National Institutes<br />

of Health fellowship in mathematical statistics<br />

from Virginia Tech that sealed her interest in the<br />

statistics profession. Three years after that, she<br />

had in hand a master’s degree and PhD in statistics.<br />

She completed her education with a doctorate<br />

in mathematical engineering from Tokyo<br />

University, but it was during her time at Virginia<br />

Tech that her research really took hold.<br />

Bowman met L. R. Shenton, her thesis<br />

advisor, at Virginia Tech and—for the next<br />

45 years—worked with him to provide a formula<br />

for approximating the distribution of<br />

maximum likelihood estimators. They succeeded<br />

by developing formulae for skewness<br />

and kurtosis statistics of maximum likelihood<br />

estimators with respect to sample size and by<br />

developing an approximation formula for the<br />

percentage points of Pearson distributions.<br />

By combining the two results, Bowman and<br />

Shenton were able to approximate the distribution<br />

of maximum likelihood estimators.<br />

Another important accomplishment was<br />

successfully implementing a divergent series<br />

algorithm for large computers. “In sampling,<br />

statistics series like this often occur, and the<br />

algorithm for the coefficients is extremely<br />

complicated and reaches four-dimensional<br />

At Virginia Tech, Kimiko Bowman worked with L. R. Shenton, her thesis advisor, to provide a<br />

formula for approximating the distribution of maximum likelihood estimators.<br />

space,” said Shenton. Bowman not only implemented<br />

the algorithm, but “it works, thanks<br />

to Dr. Bowman,” said Shenton.<br />

Bowman’s life wasn’t all work, however. She also<br />

found time to be a strong advocate for those with<br />

disabilities. She served on the National Science<br />

Foundation Equal Opportunities in Science and<br />

Engineering advisory committee and Committee<br />

on People with Disabilities. She wrote a report<br />

while chairing the latter that resulted in grants<br />

being set aside to provide accommodation or<br />

special equipment for people with disabilities—<br />

which helped promote their participation in science<br />

and engineering at NSF.<br />

Bowman also chaired the <strong>Statistical</strong> Tracking of<br />

Employment of People with Disabilities task force<br />

for the President’s Committee on Employment of<br />

People with Disabilities. Her main duty was to<br />

monitor the questionnaire for Census 2000 so<br />

relevant questions were asked about people with<br />

disabilities and accurate results were obtained.<br />

Perhaps her interest in being a champion for<br />

people with disabilities stems from the physical<br />

hardships she, herself, has overcome. In her youth,<br />

Bowman suffered from polio that paralyzed<br />

her from the neck down. Doctors told her she<br />

would never walk again, but after two years of<br />

“ One must not<br />

lose sight of<br />

what we want<br />

to accomplish.<br />

So, I tried<br />

not to worry<br />

about slights<br />

or insignificant<br />

things.<br />

”<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 5


6 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

rehabilitation, she was walking. Gladys Reynolds,<br />

a statistician and good friend of Bowman’s from<br />

her Virginia Tech years, said, “I want to highlight<br />

her determination and perseverance. … In 1980,<br />

she was having polio-like symptoms and was<br />

diagnosed with Post Polio Syndrome. In spite<br />

of this, she has continued to be as active and<br />

proliferate as always.”<br />

Bowman considers herself a “triple minority,”<br />

being an Asian and a woman, as well as someone<br />

who suffers the effects of polio. “There were<br />

many struggles I had to overcome,” Bowman<br />

said. “However, one must not lose sight of what<br />

we want to accomplish. So, I tried not to worry<br />

about slights or insignificant things.”<br />

Instead, she became one of the first women<br />

to be elected Fellow of the <strong>American</strong> <strong>Statistical</strong><br />

<strong>Association</strong> in 1976, worked hard to advance scientific<br />

research using statistics, advised a number of<br />

graduate students, and published three books and<br />

approximately 200 papers. One of those papers,<br />

“Tables for Determining <strong>Statistical</strong> Significance<br />

of Mutation Frequencies,” coauthored with M. A.<br />

Kastenbaum, received a Citation Classic in 1989<br />

for being the fourth most-cited paper in the history<br />

of Mutation Research, an international journal.<br />

Additionally, Bowman is an elected fellow of<br />

the <strong>American</strong> <strong>Association</strong> for the Advancement<br />

of Science (1970), an elected member of the<br />

International <strong>Statistical</strong> Institute (1978), and an<br />

elected fellow of the Institute of Mathematical<br />

Statistics (1987).<br />

Kimiko Bowman,<br />

at Virginia Tech,<br />

advised a number<br />

of graduate<br />

students<br />

and published<br />

three books and<br />

approximately<br />

200 papers.<br />

In an effort to do more for minorities in<br />

the statistics profession, Bowman also became<br />

a contributing editor to the Current Index to<br />

Statistics in 1977 and continued in this position<br />

for more than 10 years. During that time, she<br />

translated articles from Japanese journals into<br />

English, added keywords and abstracts, and<br />

included them in the index. She also was asked<br />

to go to Japan as a liaison scientist for the Office<br />

of Naval Research. She initially went for three<br />

months, but continued to visit throughout her<br />

career. In 1987, she was invited to attend the<br />

International <strong>Statistical</strong> Institute meeting in<br />

Tokyo and to give a keynote address at the satellite<br />

meeting at Mt. Fujiyama. During the meetings,<br />

she received an audience with the Crown Prince<br />

and Princess of Japan—an unforgettable memory<br />

for her.<br />

In 1994, Bowman retired from Oak Ridge<br />

National Laboratory as a senior research scientist.<br />

Retirement has not slowed her down,<br />

however. She continues to be a guest scientist<br />

in the Computational Sciences and Engineering<br />

Division at Oak Ridge, working on research in<br />

distributional properties of estimators and test<br />

statistics under non-normal sampling. She also<br />

consults with colleagues within Oak Ridge on<br />

aspects of statistics such as procedures for validating<br />

computer models in economics and stochastic<br />

models in epidemiology and biology. In the<br />

words of Reynolds, “As a woman, minority, and<br />

a person with a disability, she has certainly been<br />

an inspiration and mentor to many of us in the<br />

scientific community.” ■


Interview with<br />

Irene Hess<br />

Sampling Is in<br />

the Details<br />

Fritz Scheuren<br />

STATISTICIANS IN HISTORY<br />

Ida Irene Hess was born in Muhlenberg County, Kentucky. Her father was a mining engineer in Central<br />

City. Her mother, who graduated from Valparaiso College with her father, worked at home. After<br />

graduating from Indiana University, Hess returned to Central City to teach math and English at the<br />

local junior high school from 1932 to 1942. In 1940, she came to work with Leslie Kish at the Survey<br />

Research Center. Under Kish, she trained many graduate students in the details of sampling. The following<br />

is an interview with Hess, conducted in February 2008 by Fritz Scheuren, an ASA past-president.<br />

[Scheuren] Irene, it is so good to see you well and still active professionally<br />

at 97. Thanks for letting me interview you for all your<br />

many friends and colleagues who want to catch up with all you<br />

have done. Can we start with something about your family and<br />

early life before you came to the University of Michigan?<br />

[Hess] I grew up in Kentucky. In addition to my parents, I had<br />

one sister, Beulah Marie. I was at Evansville College three years<br />

and then went to Indiana University for one year for a bachelor’s<br />

degree, but that’s the only degree I have. I guess you want me to<br />

talk about my start as a sampler?<br />

[Scheuren] Well, of course, but a little more please about what<br />

you did before that. Didn’t you teach in high school?<br />

[Hess] No, I taught in junior high school in Central City,<br />

Kentucky. I was really not happy doing something like that,<br />

though. I was always interested in mathematics, and I would have<br />

liked teaching mathematics at a higher level. And, when you are<br />

teaching in public school, you first know that you’re to teach children.<br />

And I really didn’t enjoy that. I couldn’t enjoy grade-school<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 7


STATISTICIANS IN HISTORY<br />

mathematics. I did not want to be responsible for teaching children<br />

and encouraging them in what I would consider to be the<br />

‘right way.’<br />

So, I decided to try for statistical employment in the federal<br />

government. But to pass the civil service exam, you had to have<br />

a minimum of six hours in statistics and I did not have that, so I<br />

went about getting it. I considered Indiana first, but there wasn’t<br />

anything there that interested me at that time. I was aware of Iowa.<br />

Leslie [Kish] asked me once why I didn’t go to Iowa. I didn’t tell him<br />

why, but my mother’s parents lived in Iowa. It was always so hot<br />

in Iowa in the summer, so I just wouldn’t consider going to school<br />

in Iowa because I just couldn’t take that heat. I ordered catalogues<br />

from several universities—Indiana, Michigan, and Kentucky, perhaps<br />

others. I came to Michigan two summers (1940, 1941). That<br />

is how I got my six hours in statistics, and that was what I needed<br />

for the civil service exam, which I passed.<br />

[Scheuren] And you came to Washington after that?<br />

[Hess] Yes, it was right after the start of World War II in December<br />

and there was a civil service exam in May. The Bureau of Labor<br />

Statistics sent out invitations, and that’s what I applied for and<br />

went first to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Then, I was at the<br />

Bureau of Standards for a short time when they were developing<br />

the proximity fuse for bombs in the war. When the war was over, I<br />

decided I better get away from the Bureau of Standards. Of course,<br />

I had already been here, at Michigan, for two years because I was<br />

really interested in statistics. So, I went out to the [U.S.] Census<br />

Bureau and talked to somebody out there. They were just organizing<br />

the first sampling section at the [U.S.] Census Bureau.<br />

Anyway, I joined the sampling section at the [U.S.] Census<br />

Bureau around 1944 or something like that. I was there until<br />

I came here in 1954. Kish was in charge of sampling here in<br />

8 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Irene Hess (left and above) worked at the U.S. Census Bureau during the late ‘50s and stayed<br />

there until her retirement in 1981.<br />

Michigan, but his assistant was going to get married and move<br />

away and Kish needed somebody else. I was recommended to<br />

Kish and he wrote to me. In the meantime, at the [U.S.] Census<br />

Bureau, I think at least twice, when I came to work in the morning,<br />

they told me I should leave. I had no retention points to<br />

justify my continuing employment at the [U.S.] Census Bureau.<br />

(When a person returned from military service, that person had<br />

to be re-employed.)<br />

[Scheuren] They were laying off people?<br />

[Hess] Yes, that was because of the return of veterans from the<br />

war, and every time someone came back and had to have a job,<br />

they selected me to lay off. That happened twice. Joe Steinberg<br />

worked hard to get me back each time. Anyway, on one Good<br />

Friday evening, I walked into my apartment and picked up my<br />

mail and there was this communication from Leslie Kish out here<br />

in Michigan.<br />

When I got the letter, I felt it was going to be a job offer and<br />

I knew that I was going to take it, but I didn’t want to. I liked<br />

Washington and I always liked the [U.S.] Census Bureau. I<br />

responded to Leslie’s letter, and he invited me here to look around.<br />

I’ve been here ever since, and that was 1954. In 1981, I retired. I’ve<br />

been retired for 27 years.<br />

[Scheuren] But you’ve been working here as a retired person,<br />

every weekday ever since? That’s a real compliment to you<br />

and to the center.<br />

[Hess] Well it has been a long time. The way it began was I had<br />

started this book [on sampling]. We had some very complex sample<br />

designs for various projects and it bothered me that nobody else<br />

around here knew anything about the sampling activities. So, I had<br />

written or was working on that book, Sampling for Social Survey<br />

Research Surveys, 1947–1980. I decided to stay and finish it.<br />

[Scheuren] So, that is how you are continuing to work after retirement?<br />

What came next that kept you coming here every day?<br />

[Hess] Roe Goodman. I don’t know if you were ever acquainted<br />

with Goodman.<br />

[Scheuren] No, I wasn’t, but I know of his work.


Irene Hess worked with Leslie Kish, but<br />

also worked with Mildred “Jean” Harter,<br />

seen here with Hess (above and right) in<br />

Hess’ office in the late ‘50 s.<br />

[Hess] Goodman was sold on controlled selection.<br />

[Scheuren] Well, I am too. In fact, one of my former students,<br />

Yan Liu, did her dissertation on balanced sampling with me—a<br />

related idea.<br />

[Hess] Goodman’s family was here in Michigan, so he came in one<br />

day concerned about how well-controlled selection by computer<br />

is compared with hand-drawn controlled selection. So, that’s how<br />

we happened to have the book Controlled Selection Continued. As<br />

I remember it, I think we were already well into the book before I<br />

had to retire.<br />

[Scheuren] You had to retire because of age? What was the age<br />

you had to retire?<br />

[Hess] Yes, I had to retire at 70. That was in 1981.<br />

Anyway, Goodman was very interested in controlled selection and<br />

the material we set up and worked on in the book. The last time<br />

I saw Goodman was one afternoon before Easter. Goodman’s wife<br />

was already in Kansas and he was going to go take the train and<br />

join her. Anyway, he put in his final edits to the book. We didn’t<br />

know they were final edits, of course, at the time. Well, he went<br />

home to Kansas. He had a heart attack and died that night. That<br />

made me determined to finish the book.<br />

When my time came to retire, I probably still had something<br />

to do there. I don’t know if it was all done—probably not. I don’t<br />

remember how long it took me to get these first two books finished<br />

after I retired.<br />

[Scheuren] But there were more books after that weren’t there?<br />

Leslie Kish, ASA president in 1977;<br />

he passed away in 2000.<br />

[Hess] Yes, several. The last one of these was published in<br />

September 2007, I think.<br />

[Hess, changing the subject] As you know, the center has done a lot<br />

of work on telephone surveys. But, I never got very deeply into the<br />

telephone field. All of these things I worked on were face-to-face<br />

area probability surveys. I believed wholeheartedly in this approach.<br />

And, hence, I never got involved in the telephone business.<br />

How it started at the center was Charlie Cannell and Bob Kahn<br />

got a project to work on telephone sampling. One day, I don’t<br />

know if it was Cannell or Kahn, asked me if there was somebody in<br />

the sampling section who could work with them on this telephone<br />

project they had and I told them Bob Groves. And, I also told Bob<br />

Groves that Cannell and Kahn would be talking to him. And they<br />

did, and they worked on various projects, and Groves has been<br />

with telephone surveys ever since. I was no admirer or interested in<br />

the telephone. Anyway, I was getting to the point where I had to<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 9


Irene Hess (left) celebrates her 97th birthday with Rhea Kish on<br />

August 26, 2007.<br />

retire, so it was not something for me to get into and I had enough<br />

of these other things [talked about earlier] to finish up.<br />

[Scheuren] You sure did. Look at these accomplishments, all done<br />

after you retired, too.<br />

[Hess] Now, I’m completely out of any project and I don’t have<br />

anything that I really want to write about. So, I figure I ought to<br />

clean up everything that I have around here and get out.<br />

[Scheuren] Don’t do that. You do have more to do. At least help<br />

me edit this interview, please?<br />

[Hess] Bob Groves says he just likes to have me around.<br />

[Scheuren, changing the subject] Let me ask you about your work<br />

with Kish, and then we will finish up with your stint as the first<br />

chair of the Section on Survey Research Methods.<br />

Books by Irene Hess<br />

Probability Sampling of Hospitals and Patients (1961)<br />

Irene Hess, Donald C. Reidel, and Thomas Fitzpatrick<br />

Sampling for Social Research Surveys (1995) Irene Hess<br />

Controlled Selection Continued (2002) Irene Hess and<br />

Steven G. Heeringa<br />

The Practice of Survey Research at the Survey Research Center,<br />

1947–1980 (1985) Irene Hess<br />

10 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

[Hess] Early on, I did publish a number of papers with Kish. I<br />

remember a paper in The <strong>American</strong> Statistician on nonresponse.<br />

That paper was something I guess Kish shared with me, actually.<br />

That was just shortly after I came here.<br />

[Scheuren] That nonresponse paper that you and Kish did is a<br />

wonderful piece of applied work. I have cited it many times. When<br />

I used to do the History Corner in The <strong>American</strong> Statistician, I<br />

republished it.<br />

[Hess] After about 1960, Kish got out of the day-to-day sampling<br />

activities. He was going to educate the world. So, we didn’t work<br />

together much after that. For example, he did not have anything to<br />

do with the projects that I was working on and what we were doing<br />

with Roe Goodman. Kish was not involved with any of that. He<br />

was just in a separate area of the center completely.<br />

[Scheuren] One last item? Can you talk about your involvement<br />

with the Section on Survey Research Methods?<br />

[Hess] Do you know how the section started? Within the Social<br />

Statistics Section, there was a subsection, and I guess it existed for<br />

maybe two or three years. But anyway, at one time, I was nominated<br />

for chair of the subsection. There was an election within the<br />

Social Statistics Section and I happened to have been nominated<br />

and then elected for chair of the subsection. In the meantime,<br />

the powers that be decided to have a separate section for survey<br />

research, and they said—because I had just won the election—<br />

that I would automatically be chair of the new Section on Survey<br />

Research Methods. So, I was the first chair of the Section on Survey<br />

Research Methods, 1977.<br />

Do you remember this [showing the engraved silver plate given<br />

to her by the Section on Survey Research Methods in 1998]?<br />

[Scheuren] You still have this? I remember it well. I think I may<br />

even have given it to you.<br />

[Hess] That was my last annual meeting. I remember it very well.<br />

I was surprised, overwhelmed.<br />

[Scheuren] Irene, you have done such wonderful things for us all.<br />

I’m going to read this inscription. The inscription says, “Irene Hess<br />

for distinguished service and unstinting efforts in the furtherance<br />

of survey research methods.”<br />

[Hess] In July 1999, I had extensive surgery on my right leg, and<br />

I have never been free of some kind of health struggle since that<br />

time. And I have never been to another meeting of the <strong>American</strong><br />

<strong>Statistical</strong> <strong>Association</strong>, and I guess I’ll never get there again. But<br />

anyway, 1998 was very special. That was a real graduation for me.<br />

[Scheuren] Oh my, you’ve done so many things, Irene, and most<br />

of your major publications were finished after you retired. Earlier,<br />

you were so busy day-to-day that you didn’t have time to write<br />

these books. But, you did write them, eventually. How can we all<br />

thank you? ■


Jack Chao-sheng Lee<br />

The following excerpt is based on the 2007 article “In Memory<br />

of Professor Jack Chao-sheng Lee (1941–2007),” which<br />

appeared in the Journal of Data Science, Vol. 5, 143–150. For<br />

a complete version, visit www.sinica.edu.tw/~jds/In-memory-of-<br />

Jack-Lee.pdf.<br />

Chao-sheng Lee can be described as one of the most outstanding<br />

people in Taiwan’s present statistical community.<br />

His 40-year career of teaching and research has resulted in<br />

nearly 100 academic papers in well-known international periodicals.<br />

The National Chiao Tung University (NCTU) Graduate<br />

Institute of Statistics, where Lee established himself when he<br />

returned from the United States, has become a cornerstone for the<br />

development of Taiwan’s growing statistical academic circles. The<br />

NCTU Graduate Institute of Finance, which Lee helped establish,<br />

has provided Taiwan’s financial sector with the talent needed<br />

for growth and innovation.<br />

Lee graduated from National Taiwan University’s Department<br />

of Business in 1964 and received his master’s in economics from<br />

the University of Rochester in 1969. He studied under Seymour<br />

Geisser at The State University of New York, Buffalo, and received<br />

his PhD in statistics in 1972. Upon completing his education, he<br />

began his teaching career at the University of Minnesota, and then<br />

taught at Wright State University, as well as other universities, for<br />

many years. He then went to Bell Labs and devoted himself to<br />

research in economics and statistics.<br />

STATISTICIANS IN HISTORY<br />

Prepared by the<br />

Institute of Statistics,<br />

National Chiao Tung University<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 11


In 1992, Lee was invited by Chi-Fu Den, the president of<br />

NCTU, and Tsang-Hai Kuo, the dean of the College of Science,<br />

to return to Taiwan and take up the post of chair of the newly<br />

established Institute of Statistics. Until stepping down from this<br />

post in 1999, he persuaded many top statistical researchers who<br />

had graduated from well-known schools to return to Taiwan<br />

and teach. He also encouraged the now common practice of<br />

research and acquiring software, as well as hardware. His efforts<br />

enabled the Institute of Statistics at NCTU to quickly rise<br />

to the level of other established institutes of statistics, namely<br />

those of National Tsing-Hua University and National<br />

Central University.<br />

In August 1995, Lee was the first academic in Taiwan to<br />

receive the ASA Fellow honor from the <strong>American</strong> <strong>Statistical</strong><br />

<strong>Association</strong>. Lee had already been selected as a member of the<br />

International <strong>Statistical</strong> Institute in 1990 and elected as the<br />

president of the International Chinese <strong>Statistical</strong> <strong>Association</strong> in<br />

1992. He was invited on multiple occasions to make speeches<br />

around the world in many renowned schools, including<br />

Harvard, Columbia, Cornell, and [the] University of Minnesota<br />

in the United States; Oxford and [the] University of London in<br />

England; Hitotsubashi University and Kobe University in Japan;<br />

[the] University of British Columbia in Canada; and INSEAD<br />

in France, to name a few.<br />

12 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

In order to adapt to the trend of global financial development,<br />

Lee participated in the establishment of the Institute of Finance<br />

at NCTU in 2002 and took on the responsibility of head of the<br />

institute for two years. During his tenure in charge, he was elected<br />

University Chair Professor of NCTU in recognition of his dedication<br />

and accomplishments, as well as his reputation within academic<br />

circles.<br />

Lee had published many papers, and his research subjects<br />

included many fields in statistics, including multivariate analysis,<br />

time series analysis, growth curves, Bayesian inference, and classification<br />

and pattern recognition. He also published in other areas,<br />

such as portfolio management and option evaluation, with particular<br />

application to finance.<br />

Lee conducted his academic studies conscientiously. Since his<br />

return to Taiwan, he has supervised numerous exceptional master’s<br />

and PhD graduates. He has four PhD graduates who are currently<br />

teaching in well-known universities and colleges. His master’s<br />

graduates have also held pivotal positions in numerous areas of<br />

business and academia. His pupils owe much to him, and have the<br />

capability to build on his success and to further glorify what Lee<br />

has started.<br />

Throughout his life, Lee lived plainly and simply, and his passion<br />

for learning never diminished. He, now and always, will be a<br />

great role model for scholars to admire and learn from. ■


Paul Dixon Minton<br />

Building a<br />

Department<br />

Dwight B. Brock,<br />

Westat<br />

Paul Dixon Minton was born in Dallas,<br />

Texas, the third of four sons in the family<br />

of William M. and Addie Evelyn Croft<br />

Minton. Having grown up in the economically<br />

difficult times of the Great Depression, he was<br />

able to attend college only because he received an<br />

“emergency scholarship” to attend Southern<br />

Methodist University (SMU). The university was<br />

experiencing its own difficulties, struggling to fill<br />

classes, and decided to offer such scholarships to<br />

young Dallasites who had done well in high<br />

school, were recommended by their principals,<br />

and could not otherwise afford to go to school.<br />

Minton earned a bachelor’s and master’s<br />

degree from SMU, a school to which he would<br />

return later to found and direct a department of<br />

statistics. His studies were interrupted by World<br />

War II, during which time he worked as a cryptanalyst<br />

for the FBI. Following the war, he returned<br />

to Dallas as an instructor and graduate student<br />

STATISTICIANS IN HISTORY<br />

at SMU in the Department of Mathematics. It<br />

was at that point that Minton was introduced to<br />

probability and statistics by Edwin Mouzon, who<br />

had, himself, written a dissertation on statistics<br />

at the University of Illinois. After completing<br />

his master’s degree, Minton was encouraged by<br />

Mouzon to continue his graduate studies in the<br />

new program in statistics at The University of<br />

North Carolina.<br />

Minton earned a PhD in statistics from<br />

North Carolina State University under the<br />

tutelage of Gertrude Cox, during the time the<br />

Institute of Statistics of the Greater University<br />

of North Carolina consisted of the Department<br />

of Mathematical Statistics at UNC Chapel Hill<br />

and the Department of Experimental Statistics<br />

at NC State in Raleigh. Many famous statisticians<br />

were either faculty members or visitors<br />

when Minton was a student there, including<br />

R. A. Fisher, Harold Hotelling, William Cochran,<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 13


R. A. Fisher<br />

Harold Hotelling<br />

Jacob Wolfowitz<br />

William Cochran<br />

14 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Jacob Wolfowitz, Herbert Ellis Robbins, Richard<br />

L. Anderson, Raj Chandra Bose, and others too<br />

numerous to mention.<br />

Minton once related a story in which Fisher was<br />

sitting in the front row of the audience when he<br />

(Minton) gave his first paper as a graduate student.<br />

As if that fact alone was not enough to frighten<br />

an already nervous graduate student, the situation<br />

became “infinitely worse” (Minton’s words)<br />

when Fisher left the room in the middle of the talk.<br />

Minton told another story about his final PhD oral<br />

examination, in which he had a bad case of laryngitis<br />

that he attributed to nerves. To his knowledge,<br />

he had the world’s only silent orals.<br />

Minton returned once again to SMU and<br />

began to build a set of courses in mathematical and<br />

applied statistics for students from a wide range of<br />

subject-matter departments in the university. These<br />

offerings gradually evolved into the formation of<br />

the Department of Statistics at SMU, now known<br />

as the Department of <strong>Statistical</strong> Science. At the<br />

same time, Minton began to recognize the importance<br />

of computing in statistics, and, as a result of<br />

his expressed opinions, he was assigned to direct the<br />

first computer center at SMU, which housed the<br />

Univac 1103, one of the few large scientific computers<br />

available at the time.<br />

Funded primarily by a training grant from the<br />

National Institutes of Health for training biostatisticians,<br />

Minton established a new Department<br />

of Statistics at SMU in 1962. It was significant<br />

in obtaining faculty approval of the new department<br />

that he had provided research consultation in<br />

either statistics or computing—or both—to every<br />

department in the university. The new department<br />

offered master’s and doctoral degrees following the<br />

North Carolina model and received consultation<br />

and assistance from Cox. The department subsequently<br />

expanded to offer degrees at all levels, to<br />

provide consultative assistance to faculty research<br />

and outside clients, and to conduct research in statistical<br />

theory and methods.<br />

After 10 years of developing and administering<br />

the SMU department, Minton moved to<br />

Richmond, Virginia, to take the position of<br />

dean of the School of Arts and Sciences at<br />

Virginia Commonwealth University in 1972.<br />

There, in addition to his duties as dean, Minton<br />

formed an Institute of Statistics—a form of<br />

liaison office between the Department of<br />

Mathematical Sciences in the School of Arts and<br />

Sciences and the Department of Biostatistics in<br />

the Medical College of Virginia. He also was<br />

active in statistical consulting in local industry,<br />

including paper manufacturing, polymer plastics<br />

processors, pharmaceuticals, a national baking<br />

company, and a federal agency. He retired from<br />

VCU in 1988. That year, a special symposium<br />

was organized in his honor, attended by many<br />

former students and colleagues.<br />

Minton was the recipient of numerous academic<br />

and professional awards, including being named a<br />

Fellow of the <strong>American</strong> <strong>Statistical</strong> <strong>Association</strong> and<br />

being an early recipient of the ASA Founders Award<br />

for service to the association and the profession. In<br />

his honor, the SMU Statistics Department created<br />

the Paul Minton Award for the student who scores<br />

highest on the basic qualifying examination. Also,<br />

the ASA created the Paul Minton Service Award,<br />

which has been given annually since 1992. He was a<br />

longtime member of the ASA, IMS, and Biometric<br />

Society. He founded the North Texas Chapter of<br />

the ASA and was active in a variety of roles during<br />

the years he was in Dallas. Later, he was very<br />

active with the Virginia Academy of Sciences (the<br />

Virginia Chapter of the ASA) and in organizing the<br />

Southern Regional Conferences on Statistics. He<br />

participated in numerous committees, task forces,<br />

councils, and boards, and he served one term as<br />

vice president of the ASA.<br />

Minton had an active life outside the statistics<br />

profession that included a love of classical<br />

music and the ability to create terrible puns. He<br />

combined those interests with his knowledge of<br />

statistics in the following way. As part of the<br />

ASA’s 150 celebration in 1989 in Washington,<br />

DC, he and some friends created a “statistical<br />

songbook,” from which they performed at<br />

a banquet held on that occasion. In the hands<br />

of these statistical punsters, the tune “Bali<br />

Hai” from the musical “South Pacific” became<br />

the results for a test of statistical significance:<br />

“Barely High.” These and other rewritten song<br />

lyrics can be found in the songbook, which was<br />

subsequently published in the August 1990<br />

issue of The <strong>American</strong> Statistician.<br />

In a sense, entertaining audiences with humorous<br />

statistical lyrics to well-known songs became<br />

another way for Minton to be an advocate for<br />

statistics and promote the profession to a wider<br />

world. His life and work as a statistician were<br />

summarized at his memorial service in the words<br />

of his son, Roland: “He recruited students to<br />

the newly developing field of statistics, he found<br />

money to support them during their student<br />

days, and he helped them find jobs after they<br />

graduated. Others have said of him that he was<br />

a gentle person, with a gentle temperament, but<br />

he changed the lives of hundreds, if not thousands<br />

of statistical students, just as he changed<br />

the lives of many others who knew him outside<br />

the profession.”<br />

A memorial session for Minton was held at the<br />

2008 Joint <strong>Statistical</strong> Meetings in Denver. Papers<br />

from that session will be included in the ASA<br />

Archives Collection at Iowa State University. ■


<strong>Mollie</strong> <strong>Orshansky</strong>:<br />

Author of<br />

the Poverty<br />

Thresholds<br />

Gordon M. Fisher<br />

<strong>Mollie</strong> <strong>Orshansky</strong> was born on January 9,<br />

1915, in the Bronx in New York City.<br />

She was the daughter of Ukrainian-<br />

Jewish immigrants who spoke limited English.<br />

Although her father worked hard at a number of<br />

jobs, <strong>Orshansky</strong> and her sisters grew up poor—in<br />

her words, the family could “barely … make ends<br />

meet.” The girls slept two to a bed and wore handme-down<br />

clothing. <strong>Orshansky</strong> remembered going<br />

with her mother to stand in relief lines for surplus<br />

food. As she was to say later, “If I write about the<br />

poor, I don’t need a good imagination—I have a<br />

good memory.”<br />

<strong>Orshansky</strong> was both the first high-school<br />

graduate and first college graduate in her family.<br />

She graduated from Hunter College High School<br />

in Manhattan (then a school for gifted young<br />

women) in 1931. Because she received two scholarships<br />

from the college, she was able to attend<br />

Hunter College (at that time a women’s college).<br />

She graduated from Hunter in 1935 with an AB<br />

in mathematics and statistics. She was a statistician<br />

by training and profession, although she has sometimes<br />

been referred to as an economist.<br />

STATISTICIANS IN HISTORY<br />

Editor’s Note: Views expressed in this article are those of the author, and should not be construed as representing the<br />

policy of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. This article is condensed from an unpublished draft<br />

paper with references. That paper is based on extensive research involving published articles and documents, unpublished<br />

documents, and conversations with <strong>Mollie</strong> <strong>Orshansky</strong>.<br />

A daughter from a poor family graduating from<br />

college during the Great Depression, <strong>Orshansky</strong> did<br />

not have the luxury of attending graduate school<br />

before she started working. Instead, she found a job<br />

as a statistical clerk in the New York Department of<br />

Health’s Bureau of Nursing, where she worked on<br />

infant mortality and other subjects for a year.<br />

In 1936, the U.S. Children’s Bureau (then part of<br />

the U.S. Department of Labor) offered <strong>Orshansky</strong> a<br />

job as a junior statistical clerk. She accepted the job,<br />

moving from New York to Washington, DC. Her<br />

first job assignment involved logarithmic equations<br />

for 600 infants who had been in a study. In July<br />

1939, the bureau promoted her to research clerk, a<br />

job in which she stayed until January 1942, working<br />

on biometric studies of child health, growth,<br />

and nutrition.<br />

It was while she was working at the U.S.<br />

Children’s Bureau that <strong>Orshansky</strong> began taking<br />

graduate courses. At various times between 1936–<br />

1937 and 1960, she took courses in economics and<br />

statistics at the U.S. Department of Agriculture<br />

Graduate School and <strong>American</strong> University. From<br />

January 1942 to March 1943, <strong>Orshansky</strong> took a job<br />

Courtesy of the Social Security Administration Archives<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 15


STATISTICIANS IN HISTORY<br />

How <strong>Mollie</strong> <strong>Orshansky</strong><br />

Developed the Poverty Thresholds<br />

When <strong>Orshansky</strong> developed her poverty thresholds, she<br />

made use of information she had worked with at the U.S.<br />

Department of Agriculture (USDA). She based her thresholds<br />

on the economy food plan, which was the cheapest of four<br />

food plans (hypothetical food budgets providing nutritious<br />

diets at different cost levels) developed by USDA.<br />

From a finding of USDA’s 1955 Household Food Consumption<br />

Survey (the latest such survey available during the early<br />

1960s), she knew families of three or more persons had spent<br />

approximately one-third of their after-tax money income on<br />

food in 1955. The way in which she used this survey finding<br />

was by considering a hypothetical average family that was<br />

spending one-third of its income on food and by assuming<br />

the family had to cut back on its expenditures sharply. She<br />

assumed expenditures for food and non-food would be cut<br />

back at the same rate so the family would continue to spend<br />

a third of its income for food.<br />

When the food expenditures of the hypothetical family<br />

reached the cost of the economy food plan, she assumed<br />

the amount the family would spend on non-food items<br />

would also be minimal, but adequate. (Her procedure did<br />

not assume specific dollar amounts for any budget category<br />

besides food.) Following this logic, she calculated poverty<br />

thresholds for families of various sizes by taking the dollar<br />

costs of the economy food plan for families of those sizes and<br />

multiplying the costs by a factor of three—the “multiplier.”<br />

(She followed somewhat different procedures to develop<br />

thresholds for two-person and one-person units.)<br />

She differentiated her thresholds not only by family size, but<br />

by farm/nonfarm status, by the gender of the family head, by<br />

the number of family members who were children, and (for<br />

one- and two-person units only) by aged/non-aged status.<br />

The result was a detailed matrix of 124 poverty thresholds, later<br />

reduced to 48.<br />

To avoid confusion, the preceding explanation has been<br />

phrased in terms of the economy food plan. However,<br />

<strong>Orshansky</strong> actually developed and discussed two sets of<br />

poverty thresholds, one derived from the economy food plan<br />

and one derived from the somewhat less stringent low-cost<br />

food plan. (The latter set was the one she preferred.) It was the<br />

lower of the two sets of poverty thresholds—the set derived<br />

from the economy food plan—that the Office of Economic<br />

Opportunity adopted as a working definition of poverty in<br />

May 1965. One probable reason for the adoption of the lower<br />

set of thresholds was that the lower set yielded approximately<br />

the same number of persons in poverty as the Council of<br />

Economic Advisers’ $3,000/$1,500 poverty line.<br />

16 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

as a statistician for the New York City Department of Health, working<br />

on a survey of the incidence and therapy of pneumonia.<br />

Talking about her government career, <strong>Orshansky</strong> once commented,<br />

“I basically always worked with women, except when I was in the<br />

war agencies [the National War Labor Board during World War II<br />

and the Wage Stabilization Board during the Korean War].” During<br />

World War II, in particular, large numbers of men left civilian jobs to<br />

serve in the military. As a result, a number of female workers were able<br />

to get jobs that would not have been open to them under ‘normal’<br />

circumstances. Describing the situation for female federal workers,<br />

Dorothy Rice, a colleague of <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s, later said, “Any female that<br />

had anything on the ball really did very well during the war. All the<br />

men went to the war and we had to carry on.”<br />

In March 1943, <strong>Orshansky</strong> secured a job at the U.S. National War<br />

Labor Board as chief of the Program Statistics Division of the Research<br />

and Statistics Branch. She planned and executed the collection and<br />

analysis of data required for the board’s decisions on wage adjustments<br />

and the effects of the board’s stabilization activities. She stayed in this<br />

job until September 1945, when the operations of the board were<br />

being terminated.<br />

From September 1945 to March 1951, <strong>Orshansky</strong> worked as<br />

a family economist at the Bureau of Human Nutrition and Home<br />

Economics of the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). She conducted<br />

research in family consumption and levels of living, carrying<br />

out a variety of assignments. She was in charge of preparing data on<br />

the estimated value of household furnishings and equipment on farms<br />

for the department’s balance sheets of agriculture for 1947–1950.<br />

In 1948, <strong>Orshansky</strong> and a colleague were responsible for responding<br />

to letters from members of the public asking how they could make<br />

ends meet on their existing income in the face of the severe (by U.S.<br />

standards) post–World War II inflation. <strong>Orshansky</strong> and her colleague<br />

would send the letter writers pamphlets about preparing a family budget<br />

and planning low-cost and moderate-cost meals using USDA’s<br />

food plans—hypothetical food budgets providing nutritious diets at<br />

different cost levels. (This shows <strong>Orshansky</strong> was working with USDA’s<br />

food plans at least 15 years before she was to use them to develop her<br />

poverty thresholds.)<br />

About 1949, <strong>Orshansky</strong> carried out an assignment to update a standard<br />

budget (an estimate of necessary living costs) for a single working<br />

woman in New York. In June 1950, she presented a paper titled<br />

“Equivalent Levels of Living: Farm and City” at the annual meeting<br />

of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth (CRIW). Her<br />

paper and the other papers presented at the meeting (including one<br />

by Milton Friedman) were published in volume 15 of CRIW’s annual<br />

(and still continuing) series, Studies in Income and Wealth.<br />

In March 1951, during the Korean War, <strong>Orshansky</strong> secured<br />

a job at the U.S. Wage Stabilization Board as the director of the<br />

Program Statistics Division of the Office of Economic Analysis. She<br />

planned and directed the board’s statistical program until August<br />

1953, when the operations of the board were being terminated due<br />

to the end of the war.<br />

In 1952, while <strong>Orshansky</strong> was working at the U.S. Wage<br />

Stabilization Board, she was elected a member of the Econometric<br />

Society (an international society for the advancement of economic<br />

theory in its relation to statistics and mathematics). Of the 73 candidates<br />

for election to membership in 1952, <strong>Orshansky</strong> was the<br />

only woman.


From August 1953 to February 1958, <strong>Orshansky</strong> worked as a food<br />

economist for USDA in a successor office to the Bureau of Human<br />

Nutrition and Home Economics, where she had worked before. She<br />

planned and directed the collection and analysis of data on food consumption<br />

and expenditures of <strong>American</strong> households.<br />

In 1956 and 1957, <strong>Orshansky</strong> was the senior coauthor of two<br />

reports on family food expenditures and food consumption based on<br />

a food consumption survey of rural families in the North Central<br />

[Midwest] region. She was one of a number of people who gave technical<br />

assistance in the preparation of a series of reports on USDA’s<br />

1955 Household Food Consumption Survey, and she wrote a<br />

major section of a summary report on the same survey. This 1955<br />

Household Food Consumption Survey was the source from which<br />

<strong>Orshansky</strong> would calculate the “multiplier” she later used to develop<br />

her poverty thresholds.<br />

In February 1958, <strong>Orshansky</strong> went to work for the Social Security<br />

Administration (SSA) in an office that later became the Office of<br />

Research and Statistics (ORS). ORS seems to have been one of a<br />

small number of federal offices that provided significant work opportunities<br />

for women professionals at this time; during <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s first<br />

decade there, both the director and the deputy director were women.<br />

<strong>Orshansky</strong> had several titles at SSA, but can best be described as a<br />

social science research analyst.<br />

<strong>Orshansky</strong> performed a number of assignments during her early<br />

years at SSA. Her first was to prepare an article on standard budgets<br />

(family budgets) and practices in setting fee scales in 21 large cities.<br />

She also prepared several annual updates of an analysis of the income<br />

sources of “young survivors” (widows under age 65, particularly those<br />

with minor children). She prepared a medical care standard for the<br />

Budget for an Elderly Couple, of which the Bureau of Labor Statistics<br />

(BLS) was preparing an interim revision. She also prepared data for<br />

16 charts on financial resources of the aged for the Chart Book for the<br />

1961 White House Conference on Aging.<br />

While <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s development of the poverty thresholds was a<br />

major milestone in both social policy history and statistical history, it<br />

grew out of ordinary work activities—an “answer for the record” for<br />

a congressional hearing and an in-house research project. During a<br />

1960 congressional hearing, a senator asked HEW Secretary Arthur<br />

Flemming if he had figures on how much it costs a retired couple to<br />

live. Flemming said HEW would provide an answer for the record,<br />

and <strong>Orshansky</strong> was the civil servant who prepared an unattributed<br />

submission for the record. She mentioned the Budget for an Elderly<br />

Couple, which BLS was then revising, and a similar budget prepared<br />

by a group in New York. In addition, she provided two rough measures<br />

of income inadequacy for an elderly couple that she developed<br />

by applying multipliers derived from USDA’s 1955 Household Food<br />

Consumption Survey to the cost of USDA’s low-cost food plan (at that<br />

time, the cheapest of USDA’s three food plans)—almost exactly as she<br />

was to do several years later in her 1963 and 1965 poverty articles.<br />

In early 1963, <strong>Orshansky</strong> was assigned to do an in-house research<br />

project on poverty as it affects children. At that time (the year before<br />

the War on Poverty was declared), there was no generally accepted<br />

measure of poverty, so to carry out this research project, <strong>Orshansky</strong><br />

developed one (see “How <strong>Mollie</strong> <strong>Orshansky</strong> Developed the Poverty<br />

Thresholds” on the previous page for her methodology). In July 1963,<br />

she published results of her research project in a Social Security Bulletin<br />

article, “Children of the Poor,” in which she also described the initial<br />

version of her poverty thresholds.<br />

<strong>Orshansky</strong> told several interesting stories about<br />

events during the development of her thresholds:<br />

➤ As noted in the sidebar, “How <strong>Mollie</strong> <strong>Orshansky</strong> Developed the<br />

Poverty Thresholds,” <strong>Orshansky</strong> based her thresholds on USDA’s<br />

economy food plan. She had been working with the USDA food<br />

plans at least as early as 1948, and so was familiar with them. In<br />

the context of developing poverty thresholds for families, she<br />

became concerned about the economy food plan not allowing<br />

for purchases of food away from home, either at work or school.<br />

For the purpose of developing poverty thresholds, she wanted<br />

to modify the cost of the food plan by adding $0.15 a day per<br />

person to it to allow for the husband in a family to buy coffee<br />

at work or for children to buy snacks. However, her supervisor<br />

would not allow her to do so.<br />

➤ One major source for <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s July 1963 article was a<br />

special tabulation of Current Population Survey (CPS) data that<br />

the Social Security Administration (SSA) purchased from the<br />

U.S. Census Bureau for $2,500. The results showed the median<br />

annual income of nonfarm, female-headed families with<br />

children was $2,340. <strong>Orshansky</strong> was horrified when she realized<br />

half of these families lived for a year on less than SSA paid for<br />

one statistical tabulation. She later commented, “I determined I<br />

was going to get my $2,500 worth.”<br />

➤In the CPS, thousands of sample cases represent millions<br />

of families and persons in the general population. Published<br />

U.S. Census Bureau reports based on survey data always<br />

show figures that relate to the national totals of families and<br />

unrelated individuals. However, when <strong>Orshansky</strong> got the results<br />

of her $2,500 tabulation of CPS data, they gave her only the<br />

unweighted counts of sample households in various poverty<br />

and nonpoverty categories; SSA’s payment to the bureau had<br />

not been enough to pay for computing weighted national<br />

totals for her, so she had to do the work herself, “by hand,” to<br />

calculate weighted national totals from the unweighted sample<br />

count. She also calculated the poverty gap “by hand” for her<br />

January 1965 article. She didn’t even use a calculator.<br />

In January 1964—only six months after the publication of<br />

<strong>Orshansky</strong>’s obscure article—President Lyndon Johnson declared a<br />

war on poverty. In a chapter on the problem of poverty in its 1964<br />

annual report, the president’s Council of Economic Advisers (CEA)<br />

put forward its own rough measure of poverty: $3,000 for families<br />

of all sizes and $1,500 for unrelated individuals. The CEA’s $3,000<br />

figure was not derived in any way from <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s work; however,<br />

the CEA report did cite two dollar figures from <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s July 1963<br />

article (without giving her name as the author) to show that the CEA’s<br />

$3,000 figure was a reasonable level for a poverty line.<br />

When <strong>Orshansky</strong> saw the January 1964 CEA report (including the<br />

reference to her dollar figures), she was disturbed by the CEA’s failure<br />

to vary its $3,000 family poverty line by family size, as this resulted<br />

in understating the number of children in poverty relative to aged<br />

persons. The CEA figure “led to the odd result that an elderly couple<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 17


STATISTICIANS IN HISTORY<br />

<strong>Mollie</strong> <strong>Orshansky</strong> (third from left) at the first Conference on Women in the War on Poverty on May 8, 1967. With her are Mary Keyserling, Josephine<br />

Weiner, and Hyman Bookbinder. Near the end of her speech, <strong>Orshansky</strong> said, “…our statistics, imperfect though they may be, show us where problems<br />

are even if they cannot always reveal exact dimensions…[C]alculations … relating to poverty … exist only to help make them disappear, and so<br />

if we can think bold solutions and dream the big dream, we can wipe out the scourge of poverty before we all agree on how to measure it.”<br />

with $2,900 income … would be considered poor, but a family with<br />

a husband, wife, and four little children with $3,100 income would<br />

not be.” In addition, the president’s declaration of a war on poverty<br />

evidently led SSA to give a higher priority to <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s poverty<br />

work. As a result, <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s supervisors asked her to do an analysis<br />

extending her families-with-children poverty thresholds to the whole<br />

population. She completed this analysis in late 1964 and it was published<br />

in the Social Security Bulletin in January 1965 as “Counting the<br />

Poor: Another Look at the Poverty Profile.”<br />

The publication of <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s January 1965 article came when<br />

the Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO)—the lead agency for<br />

the War on Poverty—was being set up. OEO officials were enthusiastic<br />

about <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s poverty thresholds, considering them to be<br />

an advance over the CEA’s $3,000-for-all-family-sizes figure. OEO<br />

research chief Joseph Kershaw commented, “<strong>Mollie</strong> <strong>Orshansky</strong> says<br />

that when you have more people in the family, you need more money.<br />

Isn’t that sensible?” In May 1965, OEO adopted <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s thresholds<br />

as a working definition of poverty for statistical, planning, and<br />

budget purposes, and, in August 1969, her thresholds were made the<br />

federal government’s official statistical definition of poverty.<br />

When she developed the poverty thresholds, <strong>Orshansky</strong> was “an<br />

obscure civil servant” who worked “[d]own a dimly lit hall, among<br />

stacks of computer printouts [at] a paper-covered desk …” However,<br />

after her thresholds were adopted as the federal government’s poverty<br />

line, she became much more well known. Because of frequent citations<br />

of her work in academic articles and books, someone once referred to<br />

her as “the ubiquitous footnote.” Besides presenting papers at a number<br />

of professional meetings and publishing a number of articles, she<br />

testified and/or provided written documents to congressional committees<br />

on 10 occasions between December 1967 and 1990.<br />

On five occasions between 1968 and 1980, <strong>Orshansky</strong> participated<br />

in federal interagency committees that reviewed the poverty thresholds.<br />

The 1968–1969 committee made two modest revisions in<br />

the thresholds, and it was the thresholds with these revisions that<br />

were made the official federal statistical definition of poverty. In<br />

1981, several minor changes recommended by the 1979–1980<br />

committee were made.<br />

Following up on a 1973 subcommittee’s recommendation for a<br />

new income survey vehicle, the HEW Technical Working Group on<br />

income data and models proposed that a new survey be developed<br />

to provide better information on the income and related characteristics<br />

of the population and on participation in government programs.<br />

18 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

<strong>Orshansky</strong> was a member of this group. The technical working group<br />

reviewed and contributed to the plan for what became the Income<br />

Survey Development Program—the research and development phase<br />

for the Survey of Income and Program Participation.<br />

In 1982, <strong>Orshansky</strong> retired from SSA after a government career<br />

that lasted for more than 40 years. She died on December 18, 2006,<br />

in New York City.<br />

<strong>Orshansky</strong> received a number of honors for her achievements.<br />

She received a Commissioner’s Citation from the Social Security<br />

Administration in 1965 for her creative research and analytical work<br />

and the Distinguished Service Award (the department’s highest recognition<br />

of civilian employees) from HEW in 1976 for her “leadership<br />

in creating the first nationally accepted measures of income adequacy<br />

and applying them diligently and skillfully to public policy.” In<br />

1974, she was elected a Fellow of the ASA for her leadership in the<br />

development of statistics for the measurement of poverty. After her<br />

retirement, she received a national award from the Children’s Defense<br />

Fund in 1989 and an Award for Distinguished Contribution from the<br />

<strong>American</strong> Political Science <strong>Association</strong> in 1993.<br />

<strong>Orshansky</strong>’s achievements also were recognized in a very different<br />

setting. She may be the only statistician to have been discussed on a<br />

major television show. One subplot of “The Indians in the Lobby,”<br />

an episode of “The West Wing” originally broadcast in November<br />

2001, involved the adoption of a new poverty measure, and one character<br />

alluded to how <strong>Orshansky</strong> developed the current poverty measure.<br />

While the discussion of issues relating to a new poverty measure<br />

sounded plausible, the episode grossly mischaracterized the rationale<br />

for <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s methodology for developing the poverty thresholds.<br />

Of the contributions to <strong>American</strong> public policy that <strong>Orshansky</strong><br />

made during her career, the greatest by far was her development of the<br />

poverty thresholds. The poverty line has become a major feature of<br />

the architecture of <strong>American</strong> social policy. Although the measure may<br />

have its shortcomings, the poverty line gives us a means of identifying<br />

and analyzing the makeup of the groups in our society with the least<br />

resources. <strong>Orshansky</strong>’s thoughtful analyses of the poverty population<br />

began a tradition, and there are now numerous researchers and advocates<br />

who conduct such analyses and draw policy implications from<br />

them. Even though there may not be consensus on answers, the question<br />

“How does it affect the poor?” has become a test for proposed<br />

policies and programs. And a simplified version of the poverty line is<br />

used to determine eligibility not only for certain federal programs, but<br />

for a number of state, local, and private programs, as well. ■


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20 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Day in the<br />

LIFE<br />

9<br />

1


Life as a Stochastic Modeler<br />

Alan Gelfand, Duke University<br />

First, let me say I am flattered to be invited to write about my<br />

career in statistics. I do not know if many readers will find it<br />

interesting, but I do know it has evolved along a path that<br />

may be viewed as a reflection of the evolution of our field.<br />

What I have become is a stochastic modeler. In particular,<br />

a modeler whose primary focus is in the area of environmental<br />

processes, including ecological systems, exposure assessment, and<br />

climate processes. A common ingredient of this analysis is the collection<br />

of data across space and, often, across time. I am usually<br />

studying a complex process with different types of information—<br />

theoretical results drawn from physical principles, mechanistic<br />

insights based on knowledge of aspects of process function, and<br />

empirical knowledge as a result of previous data collection and<br />

relevant laboratory and field experiments.<br />

I imagine the process is described at multiple levels, with the<br />

foregoing information entering in at different places and levels.<br />

I typically represent the process through an acyclic-directed<br />

graph with some nodes observed and others unknown, and then<br />

I infer about the unknown nodes given the observed nodes. I<br />

formulate the joint model in a hierarchical fashion driven by<br />

the graph and fill in the stochastic details needed to complete<br />

the model specification. In essence, a stochastic modeler seeks<br />

the posterior distribution of what we don’t know given what we<br />

have observed, so we usually fit these graphical models within<br />

the Bayesian framework.<br />

It has emerged, more clearly than ever, that such modeling is<br />

my greatest strength as a statistician. Moreover, being part of a<br />

team of researchers assembled to ‘brainstorm’ a complex problem<br />

is an exceptionally stimulating and rewarding activity. In<br />

this setting, the modeler becomes a central player in synthesizing<br />

inputs from team members, shaping progress on the problem,<br />

and becoming a richer scientist as a result.<br />

I think this research view serves as a contemporary perspective<br />

of our field. The team research concept, which it presumes, dramatically<br />

revises the role of the statistician from someone brought<br />

in at the end to carry out data analysis and create ‘pretty’ pictures.<br />

Rather, the statistician is able to illuminate what we can learn with<br />

what we have, as well as what we need to collect to learn about<br />

what we want. In the midst of all this, it is essential that the modeler<br />

retain technical rigor, attention to detail, and appreciation of<br />

the properties and features encompassed by the modeling.<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 21


How Did I Get Here?<br />

So, that is the story of what I do. But, how did I get here? I followed<br />

a fairly typical course for my time, starting as an undergraduate<br />

major in mathematics. In my senior year, I took an<br />

introduction to mathematical statistics course from the book by<br />

the same name written by Robert Hogg and Allen Craig (embarrassingly,<br />

using the first edition, spanning all of 240 pages). The<br />

material was so elegant, I was smitten, and I applied to graduate<br />

programs in statistics, moving to Stanford—as far from New<br />

York City as I could go.<br />

I thoroughly enjoyed my four years at Stanford. (The late<br />

1960s was a remarkable time for a statistics department in the<br />

San Francisco Bay area—and for the country.) I emerged with<br />

training as a mathematical statistician, really the only path available<br />

at that time. As I have told many people, I had a ‘wasted<br />

youth’ in some ways, not discovering until the late 1980s that I<br />

was born to be a Bayesian (and, with it, to be a modeler).<br />

People who influenced me include my adviser from Stanford,<br />

Herbert Solomon, a wonderful, generous man who was particularly<br />

good at recognizing how people could best contribute to<br />

projects. He was one of the earliest ‘team builders’ in our field.<br />

Charles Stein, who was also from Stanford, influenced me in<br />

a distant way. I believe I hold the record for the most courses<br />

ever taken from Stein by a single student. His beautiful, deep<br />

thoughts in decision theory led me down that research path,<br />

22 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

which led me to empirical Bayes and, eventually, research within<br />

the Bayesian paradigm. Finally, Adrian Smith was most influential<br />

to me. Following conversations with him in the mid- to late<br />

’80s, I arranged a sabbatical to work with him at Nottingham<br />

University. I arrived seeking to use his numerical integration<br />

software for certain empirical Bayes problems and left with the<br />

Gibbs sampler!<br />

In this regard, I was fortunate to be involved in a seminal contribution<br />

to our field. Indeed, working with Smith, it was a remarkable<br />

feeling to come upon the Gibbs sampler from the 1984 paper<br />

of Stuart Geman and Donald Geman, “Stochastic Relaxation,<br />

Gibbs Distributions, and the Bayesian Restoration of Images,” and<br />

recognize it was better suited for handling Bayesian computation<br />

than it was for its original purpose—sampling Markov random<br />

fields. In fact, for the first half of the 1990s, I spent almost all<br />

my time writing as much about the use of Gibbs sampling and<br />

Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian model fitting<br />

and model determination as I could. These were heady times for<br />

those of us involved, as we realized we were elaborating on a technology<br />

to successfully address the problem of Bayesian computation—to<br />

replace high-dimensional integration with simulation<br />

from high-dimensional distributions.<br />

In the mid 1990s, I started moving from research confined to<br />

computational matters to the analysis of spatial and spatial-temporal<br />

data. Again, I was fortunate. Spatial statistics had struggled as<br />

LATEX<br />

LATEX<br />

LATEX<br />

MacKichan<br />

SOFTWARE, INC.


a field, functioning at the periphery of mainstream statistical<br />

work, and was particularly in need of inexpensive, high-speed<br />

computation to enable tools vital for visualization. Fortunately,<br />

this computing power arrived and, with it, the advent of geographic<br />

information systems (GIS) software to create effective<br />

maps that tell a broad range of stories. However, GIS software<br />

had an obvious limitation from a statistician’s perspective—it was<br />

descriptive, but not formally inferential. A wonderful opportunity<br />

for stochastic modeling revealed itself, an opportunity with<br />

few players at the time and a growing need in the applied community<br />

as more data with spatial content were being collected.<br />

Here, again, there was more good fortune for me, because<br />

advantages to hierarchical modeling for analyzing spatial data<br />

became evident—the advantages we attach to working in general<br />

in the Bayesian framework: fully model-based inference with<br />

accurate assessment of uncertainty. Additionally, the customary<br />

asymptotics, which are employed in time series, so-called expanding<br />

domain asymptotics, may be inappropriate for spatial data<br />

where infill asymptotics are perhaps more relevant. However,<br />

that the latter asymptotics typically reveal information about<br />

unknowns is bounded in terms of inference. In this regard, the<br />

Bayesian framework provides exact inference, avoiding possibly<br />

inappropriate asymptotics. Of course, the implied caveat is that<br />

the data never overwhelm the prior; we must be more attentive<br />

to prior sensitivity than in other areas.<br />

Today, my good fortune persists through continuing research<br />

relationships with talented former students. In particular,<br />

Sudipto Banerjee and Brad Carlin, both at the University of<br />

Minnesota, invaluably helped to shape my spatial data research<br />

agenda. During my career, I also found wonderful interdisciplinary<br />

collaborators. When I was at the University of Connecticut,<br />

I worked seriously at building bridges with ecology and evolutionary<br />

biology, yielding productive research relationships with<br />

John Silander and Kent Holsinger. Moving to Duke University<br />

made things even better, as Duke is a naturally collaborative<br />

institution; research teams develop over the campus with strong<br />

encouragement from the university. What program on campus<br />

is more naturally interdisciplinary than statistics? Now at Duke,<br />

I have productive relationships with researchers in the Nicholas<br />

School of the Environment, particularly Jim Clark and Marie<br />

Lynn Miranda.<br />

In summary, it seems my career has been one of ongoing good<br />

luck. To some extent, I believe this is true, but I also believe<br />

you can make your own luck. Scientific curiosity, receptivity to<br />

reading in other fields, availability for collaboration, willingness<br />

to listen, and attention to effective communication all facilitate<br />

creating opportunities. In addition, developing the full toolkit—<br />

strong theoretical training, stochastic modeling expertise, modern<br />

computing skills, and data analysis experience—enables one<br />

to take advantage of these opportunities. Some of us work better<br />

with certain parts of the toolkit and enjoy certain parts more<br />

than others; however, as statisticians in the 21st century, we can<br />

each find our own way to contribute and, in that sense, we are<br />

all fortunate. ■<br />

Welcome to ASA<br />

Make the most of your<br />

ASA membership.<br />

Visit the ASA<br />

Members Only site!<br />

-Personalize your login ID<br />

-Access all your ASA journal, CIS, and<br />

JSTOR subscriptions with one easy login<br />

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and others<br />

-ASA member forums<br />

-Enews archive


On Becoming a Teacher<br />

Daren Starnes, The Lawrenceville School<br />

As a fledgling mathematician, I was blessed to learn from several<br />

outstanding teachers. First and foremost, there was<br />

Sammi Yopp , my second-grade teacher at the North Carolina<br />

Charlotte Country Day School. Yopp sparked my mathematical<br />

curiosity and cajoled me into playing chess as a means of honing my<br />

analytic thinking skills. Several years later, my mathematical abilities<br />

were challenged by Sue Sams, my ninth-grade honors algebra II/<br />

trigonometry teacher at East Mecklenburg High School. Sams was,<br />

to put it mildly, a disciple of Mary P. Dolciani. The following year,<br />

I landed in the classroom of another Dolciani disciple, Roger<br />

Bruwhel at West Charlotte High School. Bruwhel was the one who<br />

encouraged me to leave my comfort zone by applying to the North<br />

Carolina School of Science and Mathematics (NCSSM). Off to<br />

NCSSM I went, where I was surrounded by a host of talented<br />

“mathletes,” budding scientists, and computer programmers. As a<br />

junior sitting in Dan Teague’s “Calculus with Topics” class one day,<br />

I made the decision to become a high-school math teacher. Why?<br />

Because I witnessed firsthand the tremendous passion, thirst for<br />

understanding, and knack for asking just the right question at the<br />

right moment that allows great teachers such as Teague to inspire<br />

students to do extraordinary things.<br />

From NCSSM, I went on to pursue a bachelor’s of science in<br />

mathematics with secondary teaching certification at the University<br />

of North Carolina, Charlotte (UNCC). At the time, UNCC was<br />

a teaching university, which enabled me to take all my classes with<br />

professors from the outset. At the urging of my professors, I participated<br />

in Budapest Semesters in Mathematics, where I fell in<br />

love with combinatorics and probability. Having never left the<br />

southern United States until that moment, I admit to experiencing<br />

a healthy dose of culture shock as a westerner in what was then<br />

socialist Budapest.<br />

From Eastern Europe, I accepted an offer to join a graduate<br />

program in pure mathematics at the University of Michigan. As I<br />

was nearing the end of my master’s degree requirements, it became<br />

1<br />

DAY IN THE LIFE<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 2008 AMSTAT AMSTAT NEWS NEWS 25 25


“ If I have become a teacher leader, it is<br />

because I have followed in the footsteps<br />

of the many great mentors and role models<br />

who have shaped my thinking.<br />

”<br />

clear to me that my interests had shifted dramatically away from<br />

classical pure mathematics in the direction of research methods,<br />

combinatorics and graph theory, and statistics. Ironically, my only<br />

statistical coursework to that point was a calculus-based probability<br />

and statistics course as a sophomore at UNCC. Having reached an<br />

important fork in the road, I opted to end my relationship with<br />

pure math and begin my high-school teaching career.<br />

Charlotte Country Day School (CCDS) was my proving<br />

ground, the place where I learned the craft of teaching from supportive<br />

colleagues such as Tim Timson, Sheila McGrail, and Sue<br />

Schwartz. My interest in curriculum development blossomed.<br />

CCDS launched the International Baccalaureate (IB) program, and<br />

I volunteered to take on the IB Higher Level Math course. In my<br />

fifth year there, McGrail and I designed a course called “Probability,<br />

Statistics, and Finite Math” to better serve the needs of students<br />

Environmental Section<br />

Upcoming ENVR Workshop!<br />

What: <strong>Statistical</strong> Issues in Monitoring the Environment<br />

When: October 22–24, 2008<br />

Where: National Center for Atmospheric Research<br />

(NCAR), Boulder, Colorado<br />

This workshop covers state-of-the-art applications and<br />

statistical methods in environmental monitoring. Sessions<br />

on applications include monitoring in ecology, monitoring<br />

in air quality, monitoring of aquatic resources, and<br />

monitoring of climate change and its impacts. The spatio-temporal<br />

data collected in environmental monitoring<br />

present interesting and challenging statistical problems,<br />

such as modeling of space-time correlation, analysis<br />

of the huge amount of correlated data, and analysis of<br />

high-frequency monitoring data. Technical sessions will<br />

cover recent developments in statistical methods for environmental<br />

data. A one-day short course on the analysis of<br />

spatial and spatio-temporal data will be offered and taught<br />

by Doug Nychka. There also will be a poster session. Poster<br />

abstracts need to be submitted by September 23, 2008.<br />

For more information, contact Hao Zhang, Department of<br />

Statistics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47906; (765)<br />

496-9548; zhanghao@purdue.edu.<br />

26 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

who were not bound for AP Calculus. When AP Statistics kicked<br />

off in 1996–1997, I happily agreed to play a leadership role. Better<br />

still, CCDS science colleague Wright Robinson convinced me to<br />

team teach AP Statistics with AP Environmental Science, to collaborate<br />

on a field and lab manual, and to co-present at several<br />

conferences. Robinson got me started as a writer, having himself<br />

authored several children’s books about ecological topics. More<br />

than anything, Robinson convinced me to “get out there” as a contributing<br />

member of my profession.<br />

When our youngest son graduated from CCDS, my wife and<br />

I headed west to The Webb Schools in California to begin the<br />

next chapter in our lives. I assumed leadership of the mathematics<br />

department, and with the support of some exceptional colleagues,<br />

began to tweak the existing curriculum. We dissolved our existing<br />

geometry course and created an integrated geometry with algebra<br />

course that continues to evolve today. In addition, we added a capstone<br />

course for our most talented math students titled “Calculus-<br />

Based Probability and Statistics.”<br />

Externally, my role with the College Board expanded dramatically.<br />

I led four or five one-day workshops for AP Statistics teachers<br />

every year and a similar number of week-long summer institutes.<br />

These opportunities to help coach other teachers gave me a chance<br />

to share some of the lessons I learned in the trenches. At the same<br />

time, interacting with other highly motivated professionals encouraged<br />

me to further refine my own teaching.<br />

In the summer of 1998, I began reading AP Statistics exams.<br />

Every year since, I have attended this annual gathering of highschool<br />

and college/university statistics teachers, which some of us<br />

refer to fondly as “stats summer camp.” For the past eight years,<br />

I have been privileged to serve as part of the reading leadership<br />

team, first as a table leader and, more recently, as a question leader.<br />

Needless to say, reading hundreds of exam papers every day is not<br />

the highlight of the experience for most of us. Instead, it’s the tremendous<br />

opportunity to network with like-minded professionals<br />

who have amassed an abundance of content knowledge and a host<br />

of resources for teaching introductory statistics. There are abundant<br />

opportunities for discourse during breaks, at lunch, in the evening<br />

social lounge, and at various nightly professional events. Truth be<br />

told, some of my best conversations about statistics teaching have<br />

taken place at AAA baseball games.<br />

Shortly after my wife and I moved west, Dan Yates contacted<br />

me about assisting him with some of the calculator features in the<br />

second edition of The Practice of Statistics, the successful highschool<br />

AP Statistics textbook he coauthored with David Moore.<br />

Having spent three years co-editing the Technology Tips column in<br />

the National Council of Teachers of Mathematics’ (NCTM) magazine,<br />

Mathematics Teacher, I felt comfortable accepting this role as<br />

a minor contributor in the writing process. Somewhere along the<br />

way, I mentioned to Yates that I had a few suggested enhancements<br />

to the text based on my experiences as a user. To my surprise,<br />

he called my bluff and asked me to compose a revised version of<br />

Chapter 1 that incorporated my recommendations. Doing so took<br />

far longer than I had expected, with many false starts along the<br />

way. The net result of my efforts was a 120-page tome disguised<br />

as a single textbook chapter. With a typical dose of his southern<br />

charm, Yates quipped, “You know, if chapters were this long, we’d<br />

have to package the book with a wheelbarrow.” In the end, I was


instructed to “trim” the chapter to 60 pages. That was probably the<br />

most painful editing task I have ever undertaken! (There was one<br />

consolation: Nearly all the trimmed material ended up in a supplement<br />

somewhere.)<br />

So, my second career as a writer was launched. I teamed with Yates<br />

and Moore on a second venture—Statistics Through Applications, a<br />

high-school textbook for non–AP Statistics courses—that was completed<br />

in 2004. With both of my coauthors now retired, I’ll have my<br />

hands full with future revisions.<br />

In 2004, I was appointed to the ASA/NCTM Joint Committee<br />

on Curriculum in Statistics and Probability by then NCTM president<br />

Johnny Lott. Over the years, the joint committee has been responsible<br />

for several significant projects to develop materials that promote<br />

K–12 statistics education, including the Quantitative Literacy Series,<br />

the Elementary Quantitative Literacy Series, the Science Education<br />

and Quantitative Literacy Series, and Data-Driven Mathematics.<br />

The joint committee also has assumed responsibility for designing<br />

teacher workshops to support effective classroom use of these materials.<br />

With the ASA’s recent publication of Guidelines for Assessment and<br />

Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE), the committee has begun<br />

developing materials and training to help teachers implement the curricular<br />

framework described therein. Roxy Peck and I just completed<br />

a capstone module for high-school students, titled “Making Sense of<br />

<strong>Statistical</strong> Studies,” which began as an ASA Member Initiative several<br />

years ago when Peck, Henry Kranendonk, and June Morita were<br />

members of the joint committee.<br />

DAY IN THE LIFE<br />

After a brief stint in independent school administration, I accepted<br />

an endowed chair position as Master Teacher in Mathematics at<br />

The Lawrenceville School this past fall. This unique position allows<br />

me to team teach with a different member of the department each<br />

trimester. By planning, instructing, and assessing collaboratively,<br />

we are able to improve our individual teaching practices. Our students<br />

also benefit from the distinct approaches and perspectives of<br />

their co-teachers. Other responsibilities as master teacher involve<br />

curriculum design, technology training, and professional development.<br />

Much of my time outside the classroom is spent in professional<br />

growth activities involving other teachers, either here at<br />

Lawrenceville or across the country at meetings, conferences, and<br />

workshops. Distilling that collective wisdom into better learning<br />

for students is at the heart of what I do on a daily basis.<br />

If I have become a teacher leader, it is because I have followed in<br />

the footsteps of the many great mentors and role models who have<br />

shaped my thinking. As my career has evolved, I have drifted from<br />

my origins as a pure mathematician into the realms of data analysis<br />

and statistics. All the while, my primary focus has remained squarely<br />

on how to help students learn mathematics (including statistics)<br />

in ways that will ensure their ability to use what they have learned<br />

to solve important problems today, tomorrow, and in the distant<br />

future. After all, if students see no potential to do anything productive<br />

with what they’re learning, why should they bother? ■<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 27


WASHINGTON<br />

OREGON<br />

Kristi Epke<br />

San Domenico School<br />

San Anselmo, California<br />

CALIFORNIA<br />

NEVADA<br />

“I am a high-school<br />

mathematics teacher, not a<br />

statistician, but I teach<br />

AP Statistics.”<br />

Graphic by Val Snider<br />

Harold Nelson<br />

Offi ce of Financial Management<br />

Olympia, Washington<br />

“My group does a lot of purely<br />

descriptive work, a lot of it<br />

centering on the lack of health<br />

care insurance.”<br />

IDAHO<br />

UTAH<br />

ARIZONA<br />

Willis Jensen<br />

W.L. Gore & Associates<br />

Flagstaff , Arizona<br />

“I’m the primary statistician for a<br />

portion of a medical device<br />

manufacturing company.”<br />

Where Are Your<br />

Colleagues …<br />

MONTANA<br />

WYOMING<br />

NEW MEXICO<br />

Geoff rey Bohling<br />

Kansas Geological Survey<br />

Lawrence, Kansas<br />

COLORADO<br />

Nancy Wang<br />

MDS Pharma Services<br />

Lincoln, Nebraska<br />

“My work is aimed at fusing<br />

information to reduce the<br />

non-uniqueness in subsurface<br />

characterization problems.”<br />

NORTH DAKOTA<br />

SOUTH DAKOTA<br />

“[I] use statistics in the<br />

design and analysis of phase I<br />

and IIa clinical trials.”<br />

Stephanie Lopez Cano<br />

The University of Texas<br />

San Antonio, Texas<br />

“Aside from teaching statistics in<br />

the classroom, I am director of the<br />

<strong>Statistical</strong> Consulting Center.”<br />

NEBRASKA<br />

KANSAS<br />

TEXAS<br />

M<br />

OKLAHOMA


MA<br />

MINNESOTA<br />

IOWA<br />

MISSOURI<br />

ARKANSAS<br />

WISCONSIN<br />

LOUISIANA<br />

Robert<br />

Kabacoff<br />

Management Research Group<br />

Portland, Maine<br />

“I use statistics to develop<br />

predictive models of leadership<br />

success in various industries and<br />

job functions.”<br />

ILLINOIS<br />

MISSISSIPPI<br />

MICHIGAN<br />

INDIANA<br />

TENNESSEE<br />

KENTUCKY<br />

ALABAMA<br />

OHIO<br />

And What Are<br />

They Doing?<br />

Liam O’Brien<br />

Colby College<br />

Waterville, Maine<br />

“I teach statistics to<br />

undergraduates and research<br />

statistical applications in<br />

public health.”<br />

James Hardin<br />

University of South Carolina<br />

Columbia, South Carolina<br />

“I use statistics to analyze<br />

data collected in various<br />

health studies.”<br />

Cindy Ammons<br />

WEST<br />

VIRGINIA<br />

Chapel Hill-Carrboro Schools<br />

Chapel Hill, North Carolina<br />

“I teach AP Statistics to<br />

high-school students.”<br />

GEORGIA<br />

Luke Davulis<br />

Maine Department of Labor<br />

Augusta, Maine<br />

“I work at gathering the data<br />

that form estimates of<br />

employment and wages by<br />

occupation.”<br />

NEW YORK<br />

PENNSYLVANIA<br />

SOUTH<br />

CAROLINA<br />

FLORIDA<br />

VIRGINIA<br />

NORTH<br />

CAROLINA<br />

VERMONT<br />

Malay Ghosh<br />

University of Florida<br />

Gainesville, Florida<br />

NEW JERSEY<br />

MASSACHUSETTS<br />

DELAWARE<br />

MARYLAND<br />

“I teach statistical theory and do<br />

research in both statistical theory<br />

and its applications.”<br />

MAINE<br />

NEW<br />

HAMPSHIRE<br />

RHODE<br />

ISLAND<br />

CONNECTICUT<br />

WASHINGTON, DC


DAY IN THE LIFE<br />

30<br />

30 AMSTAT<br />

AMSTAT<br />

NEWS<br />

NEWS<br />

SEPTEMBER<br />

SEPTEMBER<br />

2008<br />

2008<br />

What Does a Teaching<br />

Associate Professor Do?<br />

Pam Arroway, North Carolina State University<br />

For about a decade now, the Department of Statistics at North<br />

Carolina State University has been hiring faculty in career<br />

path, non-tenure-track teaching positions. These positions<br />

were first called clinical assistant professor positions, but have since<br />

been renamed teaching assistant professors. These positions are<br />

unusual in that they are not tenure-track, but they do have a career<br />

track, unlike instructor, lecturer, or adjunct positions found at<br />

many universities in the United States. Thus, a teaching assistant<br />

professor has the opportunity to be promoted to a teaching associate<br />

professor and a teaching professor. For simplicity, I’ll refer to a<br />

person in any of these positions as a TAP and to tenure-track or<br />

tenured faculty as TT faculty.<br />

What Do TAPs Do?<br />

Currently, the department has four TAPs, all of whom began at<br />

the assistant level and were promoted to the associate level. All<br />

currently have five-year contracts and PhDs in statistics or mathematics.<br />

Their responsibilities include a nominal teaching load of<br />

four courses per semester, though most TAPs begin with a “3+”<br />

contract. That is, the teaching load is three courses per semester,<br />

plus some scholarly activity. That may include research, but<br />

doesn’t have to.<br />

The four TAPs (including me) have evolved into very different<br />

roles within the department. The ways we contribute to the<br />

department, university, and profession include teaching graduate<br />

and undergraduate courses for statistics majors and as service<br />

courses; developing curricular and teaching materials to share<br />

with colleagues and/or publish; writing research papers; serving in<br />

administrative roles such as assistant department head, co-director<br />

of graduate programs, and director of undergraduate programs;<br />

recruiting, advising, and mentoring undergraduate and graduate<br />

students, including directing dissertation research; writing grant<br />

proposals; providing professional service by reviewing journal submissions;<br />

being an associate editor or grading AP Statistics exams;<br />

serving on committees… Sounds a lot like what a TT faculty member<br />

might do, right?<br />

So what does a TAP not do? In my department, there’s very little<br />

we can’t do. We have the opportunity to achieve our full potential.<br />

The biggest difference between a TAP and TT position is we allocate<br />

our time differently to the realms of teaching, research, and<br />

service. TAPs are not expected to publish in top statistical journals,<br />

advise a regular stream of graduate students, or get research grants,<br />

though we can do those things.<br />

We are expected to do a lot of outstanding teaching, and the<br />

flexibility of these positions has allowed us opportunities junior


Teacher Associate Professor (TAP) and Director of Undergraduate Programs Roger Woodard<br />

(center) mentors North Carolina State graduate students.<br />

faculty at a Research I university can rarely afford to consider. For<br />

example, we spend time on large course redesigns; organize conferences;<br />

develop teaching materials that are worth sharing and<br />

publishing; take on administrative roles; and go after grants for<br />

REUs, conferences, undergraduate and graduate support, enhancing<br />

diversity, and teaching activities.<br />

I want to note that a TAP is not the same as a TT person doing<br />

research in statistics education. We have recently hired someone in<br />

this type of TT position to begin in January 2009. She will have<br />

the same research, teaching, and service expectations as any other<br />

TT faculty, with her research focused on statistics education. A few<br />

other statistics departments have, or at least have advertised, similar<br />

positions. While some TAPs are active in the national statistics education<br />

community, there is not a requirement of education research<br />

for reappointment or promotion.<br />

Why Would Someone Want<br />

to Be a TAP?<br />

A TAP is typically someone who is passionate about teaching and<br />

mentoring students and who wants to be in a research-intensive<br />

environment. A TAP position may look similar to a TT position at<br />

an institution that places more emphasis on teaching and undergraduates.<br />

However, there are advantages to being in a Research I<br />

school and NC State, in particular.<br />

There are resources that may not be available at smaller institutions,<br />

such as for travel and professional development. In addition<br />

to supporting NC State’s well-established undergraduate program,<br />

we have opportunities to mentor graduate students in teaching,<br />

research, or in their graduate careers in one of the oldest, largest,<br />

and best graduate programs in the United States. In a large department,<br />

we have a variety of undergraduate and graduate classes to<br />

teach and are surrounded by colleagues with various expertise.<br />

Opportunities also exist to provide statistical consulting for students<br />

and postdoctoral fellows in other departments. We can have<br />

Teacher Associate Professor (TAP) Pam Arroway serves<br />

as assistant department head and codirector of graduate<br />

programs at North Carolina State University.<br />

a big effect on the profession and in training critical thinkers. A<br />

variety of seminars (Bayesian, bioinformatics, biostatistics, environmental<br />

statistics, statistical genetics, regular departmental seminars,<br />

and seminars by a number of interview candidates) and special<br />

topics courses in the department and at the nearby <strong>Statistical</strong> and<br />

Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute provide opportunities for<br />

continuous professional development.<br />

Why Does the Department<br />

Want TAPs?<br />

The existence of TAPs at NC State does not mean TT faculty<br />

members are not excellent teachers. In fact, many have received<br />

university and national teaching awards. TAPs can make valuable<br />

contributions to the long-term goals of the department and the<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 31


Teaching Associate Professor Kim Weems at the presentation of an<br />

honorary doctorate from North Carolina State to David Blackwell<br />

32 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Teaching Associate Professor<br />

Roger Woodard joined<br />

the department in 2003 and<br />

currently serves as director of<br />

undergraduate programs.<br />

Teaching Associate Professor<br />

Kim Weems joined the<br />

department in 2001.<br />

Teaching Associate Professor<br />

Jeff Thompson joined the<br />

department in 2003.<br />

Teaching Associate Professor Kim Weems (left), David Blackwell, and<br />

Department Head Sastry Pantula<br />

mission of the university. The creation of TAPs incorporates faculty<br />

members with different interests and skill sets and helps keep<br />

teaching loads for research-active faculty at a level where they can<br />

continue to be successful in their research productivity.<br />

Unlike short-term adjuncts or instructors, TAPs have a vested<br />

interest in the future of the department. So, while it is more of a<br />

commitment than hiring an instructor, the benefit to the department<br />

tends to be much greater. TAPs have the time for (and even<br />

expectation of) improving teaching and curriculum across the<br />

whole department. NC State TAPs have also taken on administrative<br />

and service roles that lessen the non-research workload of TT<br />

faculty, make use of the professional strengths of those in TAP<br />

positions, and contribute to the long-term growth of the department.<br />

TAPs also play an important role in training graduate students,<br />

especially for academic positions.<br />

And About That Pesky Tenure …<br />

I don’t miss it. Is my position less secure than my colleagues? My<br />

contract has to be renewed every five years. With reappointment,<br />

promotion, and post-tenure review every three to five years, I’m<br />

not sure TT faculty members have it any easier. The university,<br />

which regards us as “special ranks” faculty, has explicitly stated that<br />

the review process is the same for TAPs as for TT faculty, though<br />

contributions in different realms must obviously be weighted differently.<br />

Industry isn’t handing out five-year contracts either. Job<br />

security is not a bigger concern for me than for anyone else.<br />

Some professional organizations have been outspoken against<br />

increase in non-TT positions in academia. I agree that non-TT<br />

positions should not increase at the expense of TT positions. They<br />

should be used to complement TT faculty members and support<br />

the mission of the university. Universities must be ethical and<br />

respectful in how non-TT faculty members are treated. A TAP is<br />

not a person the department gets to abuse and then dump when<br />

funding gets tight. Neither are TAPs short-term, hired-as-needed<br />

teachers for low-level courses. In my department, the TAPs are very<br />

much respected by colleagues and the administration. We are not<br />

second-class citizens, and we participate in nearly all activities. For<br />

better or worse, we are expected to contribute as much as TT faculty,<br />

and we do in the realms of our passion and expertise. I love<br />

my job! (Okay, it is pay raise time, and I want my department head<br />

to count this as one of my publications.) ■


SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 33


CAREER GUIDE<br />

David L. Banks,<br />

Department of <strong>Statistical</strong><br />

Science, Duke University<br />

34 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

This article is based on a talk I gave at the<br />

JSM 2007 meeting for the ASA Committee<br />

on Career Development. But, I should<br />

confess at the outset that I have no particular qualifications<br />

or any expertise on this topic, aside from<br />

having held a lot of jobs (which ought to raise<br />

questions about my suitability in the first place).<br />

Years ago, I was involved in drafting the New<br />

Researchers’ Survival Guide (available at www.<br />

imstat.org/publications). Reading over it again, we<br />

were awfully earnest and a bit naïve, but I think it<br />

has a lot of value for people who are beginning an<br />

academic career. So, I refer new faculty members<br />

to that, and, in this article, shall focus on topics<br />

that apply to everyone, not just recent PhDs and<br />

not just academics.<br />

Although statisticians are relatively homogeneous<br />

in our training, we have the usual range of<br />

talents, personalities, and utility functions. This<br />

creates many career paths and many ways to be<br />

successful. It also means you can be miserable if<br />

you get caught on a path that doesn’t fit your personal<br />

strengths and values.


All careers have a stochastic component, so<br />

we should look to dynamic programming as a<br />

model for continual reappraisal of our situations<br />

and ways that may better them. This implies a<br />

portfolio analysis perspective: We each have a<br />

different mix of strengths and weaknesses, and<br />

we should try to adaptively invest our energy in<br />

combinations that seem most likely to pay off.<br />

Some skills that apply to employment in all sectors<br />

are the following:<br />

Technical Strength. This is the<br />

foundation when you are starting out,<br />

but it often becomes less important as<br />

you advance. Especially in business and<br />

government, one needs breadth more<br />

than depth at the higher levels.<br />

Computational Ability. Anyone<br />

who can do solid statistical programming<br />

will never miss a meal. It is a blue<br />

chip skill and a way of thinking that has<br />

unique value. But, it is hard to become<br />

rich or famous on this alone.<br />

Public Speaking. Every member of<br />

the ASA has survived at least 1.5 decades<br />

of dull lectures in school, which is why it<br />

amazes me that so many of us have not<br />

learned enough from that experience to<br />

avoid giving bad talks. Good presentations<br />

are a key component of almost any success<br />

story, and whatever you can do to<br />

build strength in this area will repay your<br />

efforts. If English is not your native language,<br />

that can be an obstacle, but personality<br />

and style are much more important.<br />

Feng Liang of Duke University and<br />

Xiao-Li Meng of Harvard, whose native<br />

language is not English, give wonderful<br />

talks, and there are many others.<br />

Writing. It is crucial to be able to write<br />

clearly, correctly, and briefly. This is a<br />

lifelong learning process—anyone who<br />

writes well is constantly studying how to<br />

write and attending to their prose.<br />

Social Networking. This is crucially<br />

important, and it sometimes seems statisticians<br />

study it more, while learning less,<br />

than those in any other field. You need a<br />

diverse network; having a lot of friends<br />

who work on local asymptotic minimaxity<br />

is not as helpful as having friends with<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 35


“ Most of us will<br />

hold many jobs.<br />

Our chief assets<br />

are reputation,<br />

capability, and<br />

social capital—<br />

not seniority.<br />

”<br />

36 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

complementary strengths. In particular,<br />

bring your secretary flowers, talk to the<br />

system administrator about D&D, and<br />

go to a conference where there aren’t<br />

many statisticians.<br />

Organization. This sounds mundane,<br />

but it is very hard for a manager to promote<br />

you if you are sloppy or slow about<br />

paperwork. And the discipline of quick<br />

turnaround on such items (phone calls,<br />

emails, appointments, referee reports)<br />

helps in other aspects of one’s career.<br />

Time Management. When I was<br />

a young faculty member at Carnegie<br />

Mellon, Jay Kadane shared with me this<br />

advice: Carry a pocket diary and mark<br />

down everything you need to do. But, also<br />

realize everyone goofs off some (except<br />

maybe Peter Hall and David Dunson).<br />

So, don’t waste time feeling guilty about<br />

wasting time—just be efficient when you<br />

actually get down to work.<br />

Someone else would probably generate a<br />

slightly different list, but these are all key areas<br />

to cultivate.<br />

One situation where many people damage<br />

their careers is at internal business meetings.<br />

Always be concise. Try to read the interpersonal<br />

dynamics—you need to hear the subtext,<br />

read the body language, and notice what<br />

doesn’t get said. Do not pursue pet projects or<br />

raise dead issues—the way to lobby for those is<br />

through one-on-one talks, and it can be a slow<br />

process to build support.<br />

When I joined the National Institute of<br />

Standards and Technology, Lynne Hare advised<br />

me to “avoid other people’s nonsense.” Help keep<br />

meetings focused; people loathe those who, often<br />

unconsciously and with benign intent, hijack a<br />

meeting. Probably no constructive meeting lasts<br />

more than 50 minutes, and no participant can<br />

make more than one key point per meeting (but<br />

you should generally try to make a point, just to<br />

prove you are relevant). Except when brainstorming<br />

over beer, you should never think out loud,<br />

unless you are the smartest person in the room, and<br />

even then it is perilous. A good rule of thumb for a<br />

meeting is to pretend you are one of the characters<br />

on the television show “West Wing.”<br />

Most of us will hold many jobs. Our chief assets<br />

are reputation, capability, and social capital—not<br />

seniority. So, when one moves on, try to leave only<br />

friends behind—it isn’t always easy, as changing jobs<br />

is usually prompted by dissatisfaction, but, after a<br />

few years, things will seem less intense. My sense is<br />

that no organization is more than two bad managers<br />

(in time or hierarchy) away from meltdown, so<br />

it is good to have an exit plan. And, each time you<br />

change jobs, you get the chance to learn new skills<br />

and make new friends; most of us can advance faster<br />

by moving than by staying. In terms of long-range<br />

planning, you need to think at least two moves<br />

ahead to achieve significant career growth, and you<br />

should choose those moves to ensure an ironclad<br />

résumé for the position you ultimately want.<br />

For those who need to stick in their job, there<br />

are still ways to advance. Personality counts for a<br />

lot. Try to pretend to be happy and productive.<br />

Read the newspaper so you have a wealth of conversation<br />

topics and aren’t stereotypically dull or<br />

narrow. You should avoid doomed projects, those<br />

that do not build new professional assets, and those<br />

for which you are not central. I’d recommend looking<br />

for projects that cross division boundaries—it<br />

helps to have a broad base of good opinion, and<br />

you can build unique collaborations the organization<br />

needs. When David Blackwell introduced<br />

Cuthbert Daniel to the Berkeley statistics department,<br />

he said “This man is worth 10 of us—not<br />

because he is better, but because he is different.”<br />

So, try to differentiate yourself. Think of at least<br />

one new idea a week, but be properly skeptical<br />

of its value.


Some people can climb high by sucking up.<br />

And this is not evil, nor is it uncouth if done<br />

with panache and a degree of dignity. It crosses<br />

a moral line (I think) if one takes advantage of<br />

such favoritism to torpedo others in the office.<br />

More broadly, statisticians may face special ethical<br />

challenges; we often have to find honest ways<br />

to let the data speak on behalf of our employers’<br />

interests, and sometimes that just isn’t possible. In<br />

such cases, you must use all your powers of diplomacy<br />

to head off direct conflict. But, if such arise,<br />

then doing the right thing is not going to protect<br />

you. So, keep an updated résumé handy and don’t<br />

wait around when the weather changes.<br />

The ASA was created to be an engine for career<br />

growth for all statisticians. Among its many other<br />

services, it offers the following:<br />

Salary surveys for statisticians, broken out<br />

by useful covariates such as sector and rank—<br />

this is essential for evaluating job offers and<br />

negotiating raises<br />

Professional job fairs at every JSM—the<br />

last day is open to all, and it never hurts to<br />

look at your options and keep your search<br />

skills sharp<br />

Continuing education opportunities, both<br />

as a student and as a teacher<br />

Sections, committees, and chapters that are<br />

ladders for leadership within the ASA, offer<br />

chances to network with like-minded people;<br />

and help build your résumé<br />

The opportunity to practice public speaking<br />

at every JSM and a 20-minute forum at which<br />

to advertise yourself<br />

Journals, a directory of members, online<br />

job listings, short courses, a conference<br />

calendar, and other ways to keep up with<br />

our profession and colleagues.<br />

These ASA resources are a huge benefit of<br />

membership, and their relative advantage is<br />

especially great for master’s statisticians, isolated<br />

statisticians, and those working in industries or<br />

agencies whose professional staff includes many<br />

nonstatisticians. ■<br />

CAREER GUIDE<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 37


38 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Top Five<br />

Favorites<br />

We asked a few statisticians what<br />

their top five favorite statistical<br />

books were and why they chose<br />

them as important added components<br />

to their particular job. Here is<br />

what they had to say.<br />

�<br />

Dalene Stangl<br />

Director, Professor of the Practice of Statistics<br />

and Public Policy, Duke University<br />

Editor, Reviews of Books and Teaching<br />

Materials, The <strong>American</strong> Statistician<br />

1. Bayesian Statistics 8, published by Oxford<br />

Press, edited by J. M. Bernardo,<br />

M. J. Bayarri, J. O. Berger, A. P. Dawid, D.<br />

Heckerman, A. F. M. Smith, and M. West<br />

2. <strong>Statistical</strong> Decision Theory and Bayesian<br />

Analysis by James O. Berger<br />

3. Statistics by David Freedman, Robert Pisani,<br />

and Roger Purves<br />

4. Theory of Statistics by M. J. Schervish<br />

5. Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials<br />

and Health-Care Evaluation by David J.<br />

Spiegelhalter, Keith R. Abrams, and<br />

Jonathan P. Myles


�Barry Nussbaum<br />

Chief Statistician, U.S. Environmental<br />

Protection Agency<br />

1. The Cartoon Guide to Statistics by Larry<br />

Gonick and Woollcott Smith<br />

Despite its name (or, perhaps because of<br />

it), it is a good primer on statistics. Its<br />

catchy illustrations and succinct prose<br />

provide just the explanation of statistical<br />

concepts a statistician needs when describing<br />

some basic work to nonstatistician<br />

decisionmakers.<br />

The next three are classics in terms of<br />

established books, which display and<br />

explain statistical methodology.<br />

2. <strong>Statistical</strong> Methods by George Snedecor<br />

and William Cochran<br />

3. Applied Regression Analysis by Norman<br />

Draper and Harry Smith<br />

4. Nonparametric Statistics for the<br />

Behavioral Sciences by Sidney Siegel and<br />

N. John Castellan Jr.<br />

5. Finally, I rely on an old favorite: Darrell<br />

Huff’s How to Lie With Statistics. Far from<br />

being an instruction manual for statistical<br />

lies, it has a wealth of illustrations<br />

describing how statistics can be misused.<br />

Frequently, in complex analyses, we fail to<br />

realize we are making some of the mistakes<br />

Huff explains so well. So, I gladly use his<br />

examples to explain the fallacies we may<br />

be getting into.<br />

�Julie Legler<br />

Director, Statistics Program,<br />

St. Olaf College<br />

1. Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown by<br />

Roxy Peck, George Casella, George Cobb,<br />

Roger Hoerl, and Deborah Nolan. I first<br />

became enthralled with this book many<br />

years ago when it was edited by Judith<br />

Tanur. In its current form, it is possible to<br />

find compelling, real-to-life examples for<br />

any level of cour se I am teaching.<br />

2. <strong>Statistical</strong> Sleuth by Fred Ramsey and<br />

Daniel Schafer—a difficult book for a<br />

first course for undergrads, but one we<br />

refer to often over the course of students’<br />

time here.<br />

3. Generalized Linear Models by P.<br />

McCullagh and J. A. Nelder provides a<br />

definitive, unified, treatment of methods<br />

for the analysis of diverse types of data.<br />

I realize the following two books do not<br />

exactly make for leisure time reading, but<br />

they come in handy as references.<br />

4. The R Book by Michael J. Crawley<br />

5. Handbook for Statistics Using Stata by<br />

Sophia Rabe-Hesketh and Brian S. Everitt<br />

or A Handbook of <strong>Statistical</strong> Analyses Using<br />

R by Brian S. Everitt<br />

�Chris Olsen<br />

AP Statistics Teacher,<br />

Thomas Jefferson High School<br />

1. Statistics by David Freedman, Robert<br />

Pisani, and Roger Purves<br />

2. Statistics for Experimenters: An<br />

Introduction to Design, Data Analysis, and<br />

Model Building by George Box, William<br />

Hunter, J. Stuart Hunter, and William<br />

Gordon Hunter<br />

3. Introduction to Design and Analysis of<br />

Experiments by George Cobb<br />

4. Elementary Survey Sampling by William<br />

Lyman Ott, Richard Scheaffer, and<br />

William Mendenhall<br />

5. Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown by<br />

Roxy Peck, George Casella, George Cobb,<br />

Roger Hoerl, and Deborah Nolan<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 39


A re You Media Shy…<br />

Media Savvy?<br />

or<br />

While many of the people I’ve<br />

worked with would sooner have<br />

several teeth pulled than do a<br />

media interview, others take to the process<br />

like a duck to water. The basic difference<br />

between the two attitudes seems to be the<br />

individual’s confidence in his or her ability<br />

to control the interview. They would rather<br />

run the other way than get involved in a<br />

situation where they might be misquoted or<br />

misrepresented. The good news, however, is<br />

that every media-shy person can become<br />

media savvy with a little knowledge and<br />

practice. You can learn how to be more in<br />

control of an interview and to understand<br />

what the interviewer wants and needs.<br />

Sir Laurence Olivier attributed his success<br />

to two things: the confidence to perform<br />

and the humility to prepare.<br />

Six months ago, the ASA unveiled its<br />

Media Experts Program, and we have had<br />

good feedback from the media who have<br />

used it. Some of our experts have had a<br />

great deal of media experience, and I asked<br />

them for their best advice on doing media<br />

interviews. Some of their comments are<br />

CAREER GUIDE<br />

Rosanne Desmone,<br />

ASA Public Relations Specialist<br />

quoted below, while others are incorporated<br />

into the text. One of the journalists who<br />

uses our experts list fairly frequently is Carl<br />

Bialik, The Wall Street Journal’s Numbers<br />

Guy. I asked Bialik what he was looking for<br />

when he spoke with an expert and included<br />

his answers in the sections below. Bialik also<br />

said he wanted an expert willing to give<br />

an overall assessment of the statistical relationship<br />

or statistical techniques used in a<br />

paper he’s covering, rather than addressing<br />

a few minor quibbles … the big picture, so<br />

to speak. In general, this is a good point to<br />

remember for every interview.<br />

Below are some guidelines to help you<br />

become a media savvy interviewee.<br />

Respect deadlines, but buy<br />

some time to think.<br />

The first point on Bialik’s list of what he<br />

looks for when he speaks to an expert is<br />

“awareness of the importance of deadlines.”<br />

That said, however, if you’re asked to do an<br />

interview, buy a little time. Ask what the<br />

editor/writer wants to discuss, and don’t<br />

do the interview until you can think about<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 43


44 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

what you’re going<br />

to say. <strong>News</strong> people<br />

almost always work<br />

on deadlines of a few<br />

hours to a few days, but<br />

that doesn’t mean you have<br />

to jump in without knowing<br />

what will be discussed. If you<br />

tell the journalist you’re in the<br />

middle of something and can talk<br />

to them in 15 or 30 minutes, you are<br />

respecting their need for speed, and<br />

those few minutes will give you time<br />

to think about the topic before you start<br />

answering questions. If they have a longer<br />

lead time, usually they will be happy to<br />

schedule a time to talk later.<br />

“Make sure you understand what is<br />

being asked, and that you can contribute<br />

something sensible on the point,” advised<br />

David Peterson, who is semi-retired and<br />

formerly of the Duke statistics faculty.<br />

Remember that you may<br />

be talking to someone<br />

with little or no knowledge<br />

of statistics.<br />

There are basically two types of news people:<br />

generalists and specialists. The generalists<br />

are not subject-matter experts; they<br />

may cover a strike in the morning, an auto<br />

accident in the afternoon, and a program<br />

on nuclear fusion in the evening. Some<br />

science writers have a lot of science background.<br />

In both cases, however, you may<br />

be dealing with people who know little or<br />

nothing about statistics. Don’t overestimate<br />

the interviewer’s expertise; you may need to<br />

provide enough background about a subject<br />

so you can lead the interviewer to ask<br />

the right questions. As one journalist once<br />

aptly put it, “If I don’t ask the right question,<br />

make sure you give the right answer.”<br />

“If a reporter’s question is unclear or not<br />

posed in such a way that one can answer it<br />

usefully, the most valuable thing one can do<br />

is to first provide some background explanation<br />

to help them understand the issues.<br />

That is, lead the reporter to ask the right<br />

question, then answer it,” said Peter F. Thall<br />

of the M. D. Anderson Cancer Center.<br />

Keep it simple<br />

All our media experts agree you have to<br />

speak in plain English and not use technical<br />

jargon in interviews. You need to be as<br />

accurate and complete as possible in your<br />

answers, but you shouldn’t go into so much<br />

detail that the answer becomes confusing.<br />

Using language your interviewer doesn’t<br />

quite understand is one of the major reasons<br />

experts are misquoted. The more technical<br />

you are, the more likely you are to be<br />

misunderstood and/or misquoted.<br />

“Avoid statistical jargon. The audience<br />

won’t understand and may, in fact, take<br />

a different meaning from your intended<br />

message.” This is sound advice from<br />

C. Shane Reese of Brigham Young<br />

University.<br />

Know your audience<br />

Yes, you’re talking to a journalist, but you’re<br />

really talking to his audience. Framing<br />

your answers for the journalist’s audience is<br />

really the key to giving a good interview.<br />

That’s also the key to getting your comments<br />

used—the more relevant they are<br />

to the interviewer’s audience, and the better<br />

you are at explaining things succinctly,<br />

the more likely you are to be quoted—and<br />

quoted correctly. So, if you’re not familiar<br />

with the news outlet, ask who makes up the<br />

audience. Journalists use their audience to<br />

filter what you say: What is the implication<br />

of the particular topic to the audience?<br />

Does it mean an additional congressional<br />

district in their state? More money for a


school district? Better health<br />

care? If you cannot make your<br />

comments relevant to the audience,<br />

they won’t get used.<br />

Jessica Utts of the University of<br />

California-Davis, said she tries to “translate<br />

technical information into something the<br />

public can understand.”<br />

Use examples to clarify<br />

and explain.<br />

Our media experts have varying opinions<br />

about using examples or analogies in interviews,<br />

although most of them voted a qualified<br />

yes to the use of these tools. Some said<br />

the wrong example can seem to trivialize an<br />

issue that isn’t trivial, while others feel talking<br />

to the journalist’s audience is not much different<br />

than teaching statistics to nonstatistics<br />

majors. While journalists welcome the kinds<br />

of examples that help illustrate a difficult<br />

point, you probably have to use your judgment<br />

in each case. According to Bialik, he<br />

wants experts he interviews to have “the ability<br />

to put their findings in terms accessible<br />

to a general audience, including providing<br />

analogies and examples.”<br />

“Yes, it is helpful to use an example,<br />

which can clarify how the statistical issue/<br />

result is directly relevant to people’s lives,”<br />

said David Dunson of the National Institute<br />

of Environmental Health Sciences. “It makes<br />

things more concrete.”<br />

If you don’t know, say so.<br />

If the topic of the interview is out of the<br />

scope of your experience or responsibility,<br />

your best bet is to politely decline and, if<br />

possible, direct the writer to someone who<br />

may be able to help. Once you’re into the<br />

interview, don’t speculate or talk beyond<br />

your expertise, and remember that opinions<br />

are not facts. Some journalists will try to get<br />

you to answer a question even if you don’t<br />

feel qualified, but the majority of good journalists<br />

will accept your refusal to answer. In<br />

fact, Bialik cited the following as a desirable<br />

quality in an expert: “Honesty when they<br />

can’t speak with expertise about the issue”<br />

being addressed.<br />

“If you’re asked a question to which you<br />

do not know the answer, don’t be afraid to say<br />

so,” advised Susan Ellenberg of the University<br />

of Pennsylvania School of Medicine. “No<br />

one is expected to know everything.”<br />

Don’t say anything you don’t want to see<br />

in print or on the 6 p.m. news, and don’t let<br />

interviewers put words in your mouth.<br />

You can’t control the interviewer’s questions,<br />

so focus on controlling your answers.<br />

Anything you say in an interview can be<br />

quoted, even if it originated with the interviewer.<br />

For example, a journalist may ask<br />

you if you have problems with the methodology<br />

used in a study. If you repeat what<br />

was said, or even deny it, you can be quoted<br />

as talking about questionable methodology.<br />

Instead, answer the question by making a<br />

positive statement about the study or some<br />

aspect of it. Additionally, it’s important to<br />

remember that the interview is not over until<br />

it’s over—until the phone is hung up, the<br />

cameras or mikes are off, or you’ve left the<br />

building. You have to be disciplined enough<br />

to not get pulled into discussion after the<br />

fact because it could become the story.<br />

“If you wouldn’t write it and sign it,<br />

don’t say it,” said Earl Wilson, former Red<br />

Sox pitcher.<br />

CAREER GUIDE<br />

Anything that can<br />

go wrong might.<br />

Finally, it’s important to know things can<br />

go wrong no matter how good a job you<br />

do. The story could turn out to be unfair<br />

or inaccurate. If it does, bite the bullet<br />

and don’t call the journalist or editor to<br />

complain. It’s a bad idea to get into an<br />

argument with someone who buys ink<br />

by the barrel or videotape by the mile.<br />

Once the journalist files her story, it<br />

goes into the system, to the editor, the<br />

copy editor, and so on. Any of those<br />

folks can change the story without<br />

checking with the journalist. The headline<br />

writer can change the whole focus<br />

of a story with the headline he writes,<br />

or the producer can cut the story and<br />

change its meaning.<br />

Bottom line: There are no guarantees,<br />

but your best chance of having a<br />

good outcome is to be prepared and follow<br />

the guidelines above. Good luck! ■<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 45


46 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Up-and-Coming<br />

Statisticians on<br />

the Verge of<br />

Great T hings<br />

Statisticians work in so many fields—<br />

from animal health to ecology to<br />

agriculture to computer science—<br />

and, every year, an untold number make a<br />

name for themselves. <strong>Amstat</strong> <strong>News</strong> asked<br />

around, and the names of the statisticians<br />

below just kept coming up as those belonging<br />

to people on the verge of doing great<br />

things. Allow us to introduce some of the<br />

ASA’s up-and-coming statisticians.


Name a statistician you admire and<br />

tell us why.<br />

If I’m supposed to name a historical figure here,<br />

I would pick Fisher, but the most honest answer<br />

would have to be my advisor, Peter Bickel. Not<br />

only because of his work, but because of the great<br />

positive influence he’s had on so many people’s<br />

lives and careers.<br />

What do you love most about<br />

your profession?<br />

When something you’ve been struggling with<br />

finally works, be it a proof or a piece of code.<br />

When you are collaborating with someone and<br />

know that, together, you are doing work neither<br />

of you could have produced on your own. When<br />

a student just understood something you’ve been<br />

explaining and you can see it’s a fascinating revelation<br />

for them. Of course, all these things are not<br />

unique to statistics. As for statistics, itself, the fact<br />

that almost everyone needs it is a nice bonus.<br />

Age: 33<br />

Title: Assistant<br />

Professor<br />

Employer:<br />

Department of<br />

Statistics, University<br />

of Michigan<br />

Alma Mater: UC<br />

Berkeley (PhD 2002)<br />

Research Interests:<br />

Liza Levina’s interests center on inference for high-dimensional<br />

data, including large p small n problems, covariance estimation,<br />

dimension reduction, and networks.<br />

What do you hate most about<br />

your profession?<br />

The same things that everyone else does—papers<br />

getting rejected, particularly by incompetent referees.<br />

Dealing with bureaucracy. The time pressure<br />

of tenure track. Also, that every doctor and<br />

nurse I’ve ever met felt obliged to tell me how<br />

much they hated statistics in college.<br />

What was the best career advice you<br />

were given?<br />

Co-advising graduate students. We have all had<br />

conversations with colleagues that end in “we<br />

should really talk more about this,” and then<br />

nothing happens because no one has time. But,<br />

if you get a joint student, then the collaboration<br />

really will happen.<br />

What is one web site/blog you can’t<br />

go a day without visiting?<br />

None. After my daughter was born (she’s almost<br />

three now), my free time has become much too<br />

scarce to spend it on reading blogs.<br />

What is something your friends<br />

would be surprised to learn about you?<br />

I think they’ll be quite surprised to see me do this<br />

article…<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 47


CAREER G UIDE<br />

48 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Age: 42<br />

Title: Biostatistician<br />

Employer: USDA<br />

Agricultural Research<br />

Service<br />

Alma Mater: University<br />

of Louisiana at Lafayette<br />

What are your research interests?<br />

The research I do involves statistical and epidemiologic<br />

approaches to identify relationships among<br />

dietary, physiological, genetic, and behavioral characteristics<br />

that may be associated with overweight or<br />

obesity in humans.<br />

Name a statistician you admire and<br />

tell us why.<br />

The name of a statistician that I admire is Don<br />

Mercante, who is the director of the biostatistics<br />

program at the LSUHSC School of Public Health in<br />

New Orleans. While Don is not a ‘famous’ statistician,<br />

he helped me out tremendously when I started<br />

my first job as a statistician. I knew I could always<br />

go to Don for help with a statistical issue, or even a<br />

professional issue. He was (is) truly a great mentor—<br />

always giving good advice and making time for you,<br />

no matter how busy he happens to be.<br />

What do you love most about<br />

your profession?<br />

What I love most about the statistical profession is<br />

the wide variety of scientific disciplines to which<br />

I am exposed. My first love was biology, so I truly<br />

enjoy seeing the relevance of statistics in biological<br />

fields, especially nutrition and medicine.<br />

What do you hate most about<br />

your profession?<br />

What I dislike most about the statistical profession<br />

is the degree of mistrust and suspicion investigators<br />

from other fields hold for statistics. I believe this simply<br />

results from a lack of understanding of statistics<br />

and the bad press to which statistics is sometimes<br />

subjected.<br />

What is the best career advice you<br />

were given?<br />

The best career advice I was given actually came<br />

from my brother, who is an electrical engineer. He<br />

told me to never sell myself short and to view a job<br />

interview as a two-way street. That is, I should interview<br />

the prospective employer as much as he/she is<br />

interviewing me.<br />

What is one web site/blog you<br />

can’t go a day without visiting?<br />

This is going to sound so nerdy, but one web site I<br />

cannot go a day without visiting is the SAS documentation<br />

web site that contains documentation<br />

for all their procedures. I am constantly learning<br />

(or relearning) the theory behind statistical methods<br />

simply by reading the documentation provided<br />

to correctly use these procedures. It’s such a great<br />

resource for me.<br />

What is something your friends would be<br />

surprised to learn about you?<br />

Something my friends might be surprised to learn<br />

about me is that mathematics did not always come<br />

easily to me. In fact, it was often the subject I struggled<br />

with the most in high school and college.


Research Interests:<br />

The focus of my research is on<br />

graphical models and algebraic<br />

statistics. Graphical models are<br />

multivariate statistical models<br />

in which observed variables<br />

are constrained to exhibit<br />

dependence patterns associated<br />

with a graph. My work in<br />

algebraic statistics is primarily<br />

concerned with statistical<br />

inference in models that have<br />

parameter spaces with algebraic<br />

structure. Many graphical<br />

models are, in fact, of this<br />

algebraic type.<br />

Age: 32<br />

Title: Assistant<br />

Professor<br />

Employer: University of<br />

Chicago<br />

Alma Mater: University<br />

of Washington<br />

Name a statistician you admire and<br />

tell us why.<br />

Looking beyond the circle of my doctoral and postdoctoral<br />

advisors but keeping within my areas of<br />

interest, the name Steffen Lauritzen immediately<br />

comes to my mind. He has done groundbreaking<br />

work on graphical models, and his book is the standard<br />

reference in this area. Over the past few years,<br />

I have had several opportunities to be at meetings<br />

organized or attended by Steffen and, over and over<br />

again, I am impressed by his quick thinking and his<br />

truly constructive comments on the various speakers’<br />

presentations. I also admire Steffen’s supportive<br />

nature and positive attitude toward younger faculty.<br />

He is always encouraging, and I have never<br />

seen him pass on judgmental views. I think I am<br />

not alone in having benefited and drawn motivation<br />

from his suggestions.<br />

What do you love most about<br />

your profession?<br />

Academic statistics is a small field when judged by<br />

a headcount, but it is incredibly diverse. Research<br />

may address purely mathematical questions, solve<br />

algorithmic and computational problems, or be<br />

concerned with applied questions. Each one of these<br />

three areas is challenging in its own way, and I very<br />

much enjoy the exchange of ideas and problems<br />

between the three camps of mathematical, computational,<br />

and applied statistics.<br />

What do you hate most about<br />

your profession?<br />

I really dislike turf wars between mathematically<br />

minded and applied statisticians about who does<br />

‘good’ or ‘important’ research. I consider myself very<br />

fortunate to be part of the department at Chicago,<br />

where we have a very collegial atmosphere. Also, I do<br />

not generally enjoy people pushing dogmatic views<br />

on the different approaches to statistical inference.<br />

What is the best career advice you<br />

were given?<br />

I have been guided by a number of excellent advisors.<br />

When enrolled in an applied mathematics program<br />

back in Germany, it was Friedrich Pukelsheim who<br />

first brought my attention to statistics. During my<br />

PhD studies in Seattle, I received a lot of guidance<br />

from my advisors, Thomas Richardson and Michael<br />

Perlman. It was through Thomas that I met Bernd<br />

Sturmfels, whose advice to spend a year at Berkeley<br />

as a postdoc was probably the most influential professional<br />

advice I have received. Based on my experience,<br />

I would recommend doing a postdoc to any<br />

fresh PhD. It is a great way to finish off thesis papers<br />

and explore new avenues for research.<br />

What is one web site/blog you<br />

can’t go a day without visiting?<br />

After checking an old email account, I usually take<br />

a look at http://de.yahoo.com to pick up some news<br />

about Germany. I probably use the site mostly to<br />

read up on sports news. They also have a lot of livetickers<br />

for soccer games and, of course, they always<br />

cover my favorite club: FC Bayern Munich.<br />

What is something your friends would be<br />

surprised to learn about you?<br />

I am not sure there is anything I could do to surprise<br />

my friends. So, I will try to surprise some strangers<br />

by sharing two pieces of trivia:<br />

I have been playing soccer since I was a little<br />

kid and, naturally, I racked up a number of injuries.<br />

Sitting at a desk most of the day doesn’t help<br />

with keeping in shape, and so the frequency of<br />

injuries has increased over the last 7–8 years. In<br />

fact, I am currently working from home while<br />

recovering from my fourth knee surgery. For several<br />

years, someone’s Achilles tendon has been<br />

playing ACL in my left knee, and, since two<br />

weeks ago, someone’s patella tendon serves as the<br />

ACL in my right knee.<br />

The second piece of trivia involves a prize. Very<br />

few will find it surprising that pronouncing my last<br />

name is a very painful task in virtually all of this planet’s<br />

languages. However, some may find it surprising<br />

that outside the circle of my (great-)grandparents,<br />

parents, and three sisters, I have never met anyone<br />

with my last name. This makes me wonder whether<br />

I am the world’s only male heir to this concatenation<br />

of mostly consonants. For possible resolution of this<br />

matter, I would like to offer a pint of beer at the next<br />

Joint <strong>Statistical</strong> Meetings to the first few people who<br />

know/have heard of a person with last name Drton<br />

who is not related to me.<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 49


50 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Age: 30<br />

Title: Assistant Professor<br />

Employer: The<br />

University of North<br />

Carolina at Chapel Hill<br />

Alma Mater: Nankai<br />

University (BS, 1999);<br />

The Ohio State University<br />

(MS, 2001; PhD, 2004)<br />

Research Interests:<br />

My research interests are primarily in the areas<br />

of statistical learning and data mining, as well as<br />

their applications in bioinformatics. In particular,<br />

I have been developing new statistical techniques<br />

for analyzing high-dimensional data and data with<br />

complex structure.<br />

Name a statistician you admire and<br />

tell us why.<br />

R. A. Fisher, who proposed and developed many<br />

fundamental statistical techniques and concepts,<br />

including maximum likelihood, analysis of variance,<br />

Fisher’s information, and Fisher linear discriminate<br />

analysis. It is impossible to be a statistician without<br />

being influenced by Fisher’s statistical philosophy. In<br />

addition to his most celebrated career in statistics,<br />

Fisher was also an accomplished geneticist. With<br />

remarkable contributions in both theoretical and<br />

applied statistics, Fisher is certainly a wonderful role<br />

model for young statisticians.<br />

What do you love most about<br />

your profession?<br />

As a faculty member, I enjoy the freedom of being<br />

able to work on research problems that interest me.<br />

I also enjoy the satisfaction of solving a challenging<br />

problem after great effort.<br />

What do you hate most about<br />

your profession?<br />

It is difficult for me to think of anything that I really<br />

hate about my profession.<br />

What was the best career advice<br />

you were given?<br />

To form strong collaborations with peers. Although I<br />

enjoy doing independent research, I have greatly benefited<br />

from collaborations with many other people,<br />

both in statistics and in bioinformatics. Besides the<br />

values of making contacts in the profession, stimulating<br />

discussions with my collaborators inspire me to<br />

think deeply about problems and develop relevant<br />

new techniques, as well as identify future problems<br />

to work on.<br />

What is one web site/blog you<br />

can’t go a day without visiting?<br />

On the professional side, I visit the Google web site<br />

every day to find information. On the personal side,<br />

I frequently visit www.mitbbs.com. It is a forum for<br />

Chinese students and scholars to exchange information,<br />

news, and views about study, jobs, and everyday<br />

life in the United States.<br />

What is something your friends would be<br />

surprised to learn about you?<br />

I am now comfortable with public speaking, although<br />

I used to be shy and sometimes tremble while speaking<br />

in public. I love swimming and reading Chinese<br />

martial arts novels.


Age: 38<br />

Title: Assistant Professor<br />

Employer: University of<br />

Missouri-Columbia<br />

Alma Mater: University<br />

of Illinois at Chicago<br />

Research Interests:<br />

My main research area is optimal design of<br />

experiments. Currently, I am working on optimal<br />

design for generalized linear models, an<br />

underdeveloped area.<br />

Name a statistician you admire and<br />

tell us why.<br />

Jack Kiefer, because of his fundamental contribution<br />

to the design of experiments.<br />

What do you love most about<br />

your profession?<br />

The opportunity to tackle challenging research problems<br />

that may make a contribution to science.<br />

What do you hate most about<br />

your profession?<br />

Because of what I love most about my profession,<br />

when I focus on a problem, I cannot live a ‘normal’<br />

life until I find an answer.<br />

What was the best career advice you<br />

were given?<br />

Work on problems that you honestly believe will<br />

have a big impact and don’t worry about whether<br />

it is the fashion today.<br />

What is one web site/blog you<br />

can’t go a day without visiting?<br />

Sports news web sites.<br />

What is something your friends would be<br />

surprised to learn about you?<br />

I am doing what I love to do. But, if I could choose a<br />

second career, I would be a tennis player.<br />

CAREER GUIDE<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 51


CAREER GUIDE<br />

52 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Age: 28<br />

Title: Assistant<br />

Professor of Statistics<br />

Employer:<br />

University of<br />

California, Berkeley<br />

Alma Mater:<br />

Indian <strong>Statistical</strong><br />

Institute, Calcutta<br />

Research Interests:<br />

Probability theory, theoretical statistics, statistical<br />

physics. I am more comfortable with theoretical<br />

issues, rather than applied ones. Mathematically,<br />

I’m better at analytical thinking than combinatorics.<br />

Currently, I’m working on a number of topics<br />

in probability, including spin glasses, random<br />

matrices, and concentration of measure.<br />

Name a statistician you admire and<br />

tell us why.<br />

Charles Stein. I have very little understanding or<br />

intuition about applied statistics, and how can I<br />

idolize someone whose work I cannot understand<br />

at a deep level? So that precludes applied statisticians.<br />

If I have to choose a theoretical statistician,<br />

Charles Stein’s name is the first that comes to mind.<br />

First, because I am more familiar with his work<br />

than that of other towering figures in theoretical<br />

statistics. Second, because his work is extraordinarily<br />

deep and beautiful. Whether it had any<br />

significant impact on data analysis is a moot point.<br />

What do you love most about<br />

your profession?<br />

A degree of honesty and thoroughness unmatched<br />

by almost any other branch of the applied mathematical<br />

sciences. I think that’s part of our legacy,<br />

and I hope we don’t lose that.<br />

What do you hate most about<br />

your profession?<br />

A pessimistic feeling that the honesty and thoroughness<br />

mentioned in the answer to the previous question<br />

is slowly being replaced by other, less sustainable<br />

ideals borrowed from other, younger disciplines.<br />

What was the best career advice you<br />

were given?<br />

“Everyone is insecure. If you don’t feel insecure,<br />

look at Gauss, and you will.” — From my adviser,<br />

Persi Diaconis<br />

What is one web site/blog you<br />

can’t go a day without visiting?<br />

Wikipedia. It’s addictive.<br />

What is something your friends would be<br />

surprised to learn about you?<br />

I have only a few friends, and they know almost<br />

everything that there is to know about me. So, no<br />

big surprises. Still, here’s a small one: When I was<br />

young, I used to spend hours and hours trying to<br />

figure out how to spin a cricket ball. Never played<br />

cricket, though.


SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 53


SPECIAL MATERIAL<br />

Math Is Music;<br />

(Or, Why Are There No Six-Year-Old Novelists?)<br />

Richard D. De Veaux,<br />

Williams College, and<br />

Paul F. Velleman,<br />

Cornell University<br />

54 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Statistics Is Literature<br />

Almost 30 years ago, something happened<br />

that made introductory statistics harder to<br />

teach. Students didn’t suddenly become less<br />

teachable, nor did professors forget their craft. It was<br />

that we began to switch from teaching statistics as a<br />

mathematics course to teaching the art and craft of<br />

statistics as its own discipline. When statistics was<br />

viewed as a subspecialty of mathematics, students<br />

were taught to manipulate formulas and calculate<br />

the ‘correct’ answer to rote exercises. Life for the<br />

teacher, both as instructor and grader, was easy.<br />

That started changing in the early 1980s. The<br />

video series “Against All Odds” appeared, and David<br />

Moore and George McCabe published Introduction<br />

to the Practice of Statistics. Since then, two pioneering<br />

committees—one for the Mathematical <strong>Association</strong><br />

of America and the ASA and one for the National<br />

Council of Teachers of Mathematics and the ASA<br />

that produced the Guidelines for Assessment and<br />

Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) Report—<br />

have pushed us all to change our teaching. And a<br />

new generation of texts has appeared following the<br />

advice of these reports, challenging statistics teachers<br />

to use this new approach.<br />

But why is it more difficult to teach this way?<br />

And why is it so important that we do?<br />

By comparison, let’s look at mathematics. Much<br />

of the beauty of mathematics stems from its axiomatic<br />

structure and logical development. That same<br />

structure facilitates—in fact dictates—the order<br />

in which the material is taught. It also ensures the<br />

course is self-contained, so there are no surprises.<br />

But, modern statistics courses are not like that, and<br />

that can frustrate students who were expecting a


math class. As a student of one of us once wrote on<br />

the course evaluation form, “This course should be<br />

more like a math course, with everything you need<br />

laid out beforehand.”<br />

Mathematics has a long history of prodigies and<br />

geniuses, with many of the most famous luminaries<br />

showing their genius at remarkably early ages.<br />

We’ve all heard at least one version of the famous<br />

story of young Carl Friedrich Gauss. A web search<br />

finds more than 100 retellings of the story, but<br />

an article by Brian Hayes in <strong>American</strong> Scientist’s<br />

“Gauss’s Day of Reckoning” identifies a version<br />

actually recounted at Gauss’ funeral. In that version,<br />

Gauss—age 7 and the youngest in the class—<br />

summed the numbers from 1 to 100 in seconds,<br />

wrote the answer on his slate, and then threw it<br />

down on the table mumbling “there it lies” in the<br />

local dialect. It was perhaps an hour later that the<br />

teacher discovered that his answer was, in fact, the<br />

only correct one in the room.<br />

Prodigies in math can develop at remarkably<br />

early ages because math creates its own self-consistent<br />

and isolated world. Pascal had worked out<br />

the first 23 propositions of Euclid by age 12 when<br />

his parents, who wanted him to concentrate on<br />

religion, finally relented and presented him with a<br />

copy of Euclid’s Elements. Galois wrote down the<br />

essentials of what later became Galois Theory the<br />

night before a fateful duel when he was 20, or so the<br />

legend has it. In the modern era, Norbert Weiner<br />

entered Tufts at age 11; Charles Pfefferman of<br />

Princeton was, at 22, the youngest full professor in<br />

<strong>American</strong> history; and Ruth Lawrence of Hebrew<br />

University passed her A-levels in pure math at age<br />

9 and became the youngest student ever to enroll at<br />

Oxford two years later.<br />

Of course, mathematics isn’t the only field<br />

that shows prodigies. Mozart, Schumann, and<br />

Mendelssohn, among others, were young musical<br />

prodigies. Even though his music matured, it is<br />

remarkable that some of the music Mozart wrote at<br />

age 5 is still in the repertoire.<br />

Also, chess prodigies continue to appear.<br />

Sergey Karjakin is the youngest grandmaster ever<br />

at 12 years, 7 months. The infamous late Bobby<br />

Fischer—who was youngest in 1958 when he<br />

became a grand master at 15 years, 6 months, and<br />

1 day—is now only 19th on that list.<br />

But there are only a few fields that develop<br />

prodigies, and all seem to be self-contained. For<br />

example, as professor of English at the University<br />

of Connecticut, Thomas Dulack observed, “There<br />

are no child prodigies in literature.” Although one<br />

might argue that William Cullen Bryant, Thomas<br />

Chatterton, H. P. Lovecraft, or Mattie Stepanek<br />

qualifies as a literary prodigy, that list doesn’t have<br />

quite the same panache as the others we’ve cited. It’s<br />

no easier to find prodigies in art, poetry, philosophy,<br />

or other endeavors that require life experience.<br />

What does any of this have to do with statistics<br />

and how can it help us understand why introductory<br />

statistics is so hard to teach? The challenge for<br />

the student (and teacher) of introductory statistics<br />

is that, as literature and art, navigating through<br />

and making sense of it requires not just rules and<br />

axioms, but life experience and “common sense.”<br />

Although working with elementary statistics<br />

requires some mathematical skills, we ask so much<br />

more of the intro stats student than is required by,<br />

for example, a student in his or her first calculus<br />

course. A student in calculus I is not asked to comment<br />

on whether a question makes sense, whether<br />

the assumptions are satisfied (e.g., Is the reservoir<br />

from which the water pouring really a cone?), to<br />

evaluate the consequences of the result, or to write<br />

a sentence or two to communicate the answer to<br />

others. But, that’s exactly what the modern intro<br />

stats course demands.<br />

The challenge we face is that, unlike calculus I,<br />

we have a wide variety of skills to teach, and most of<br />

them require judgment in addition to mathematical<br />

manipulation. Judgment is best taught by example<br />

and experience, which takes time. But, we’re supposed<br />

to produce a student capable of these skills<br />

in one term. It would be challenging enough<br />

to teach the definitions, formulas, and skills<br />

in the standard first course. To convey in<br />

addition the grounds for sound judgment<br />

is even more difficult. It should<br />

be no wonder that the first course in<br />

statistics is widely acknowledged to<br />

be one of the most difficult courses<br />

to teach in the university.<br />

It is not merely that we hope to<br />

teach judgment to sophomores; we<br />

are actually asking our students to<br />

change the way they reason about<br />

Carl Friedrich Gauss, a<br />

math prodigy at the age of 7<br />

Blaise Pascal was a French<br />

mathematician, and a<br />

prodigy by the age of 12.<br />

Évariste Galois was a French<br />

mathematician and prodigy<br />

who finished the Galois Theory<br />

by the time he turned 20.<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 55


We thank the following JSM 2008 Sponsors for their fi nancial support:<br />

56 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Platinum<br />

Gold<br />

Silver<br />

the knowledge to act


the real world. P. F. Velleman in his 2003 keynote<br />

address to the Beyond the Formula conference<br />

called the skills they must acquire the<br />

seven unnatural acts of statistical thinking:<br />

➊<br />

➋<br />

Think critically.<br />

Challenge the data’s credentials; look<br />

for biases and lurking variables.<br />

Be skeptical.<br />

Question authority and the current<br />

theory. (Well, okay, sophomores do<br />

find this natural.)<br />

➌ Think about variation, rather than<br />

about center.<br />

➍<br />

➎<br />

Focus on what we don’t know.<br />

For example, a confidence interval<br />

exhibits how much we don’t know<br />

about the parameter.<br />

Perfect the process.<br />

Our best conclusion is often a refined<br />

question, but that means a student<br />

can’t memorize the ‘answer.’<br />

➏ Think about conditional<br />

probabilities and rare events.<br />

Humans just don’t do this well. Ask<br />

any gambler. But, without this, the<br />

student can’t understand a p-value.<br />

Embrace vague concepts. Symmetry, center,<br />

outlier, linear … the list of concepts fundamental<br />

to statistics but left without firm definitions<br />

is quite long. What diligent student wanting to<br />

learn the ‘right answer’ wouldn’t be dismayed?<br />

How can we help students navigate these<br />

woods? We don’t have definitive answers to the<br />

question, in spite of our more than 50 years<br />

(combined) teaching of introductory statistics.<br />

But, we’d like to identify some themes that<br />

might help us as a community to start a conversation<br />

about some of the challenges.<br />

We can help students by giving them a<br />

structure for problemsolving that incorporates<br />

the requirement that they exercise their<br />

judgment. In our books, we’ve recommended<br />

that students follow the steps W. E. Deming<br />

created more than 50 years ago in his advice<br />

to industry: plan, do, check, act. We’ve substituted<br />

communicate for act to underscore<br />

the importance of communicating to others<br />

the results we see. Students must learn to<br />

communicate their results in plain language, not<br />

only in statistical jargon.<br />

As GAISE emphasized, we must place more<br />

emphasis on the plan and communicate steps. The<br />

emphasis of the traditional mathematical course,<br />

on the do step can be largely replaced by relying<br />

on technology for the calculations and graphics.<br />

In teaching students to think through the problem,<br />

plan their attack, and communicate results,<br />

we bring students face-to-face with their real-world<br />

knowledge and experience—with the literature<br />

side of their maturing intellect. We owe them an<br />

acknowledgement that we’ve done this. It isn’t fair<br />

to emphasize the simplicity of the calculations or to<br />

just provide a bunch of definitions in little boxes.<br />

No comparative literature or philosophy teacher<br />

would do that, and neither should we.<br />

What guidance should we offer? First, we can<br />

note that the judgment often called for in statistics<br />

is one that invites students to state their personal<br />

views. (After all, they are the ones who must be<br />

95% confident in their interval.) But, we can offer<br />

guidance for their judgments; they must be guided<br />

by the ethical goal of discovering, describing, modeling,<br />

and understanding truth about the world.<br />

Second, we can remind students their introductory<br />

statistics course is related to every other course<br />

SPECIAL MATERIAL<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 57


SPECIAL MATERIAL<br />

Resources<br />

Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education<br />

(GAISE) Report, www.amstat.org/education/gaise<br />

Hayes, Brian. (2006) “Gauss’s Day of Reckoning.” <strong>American</strong> Scientist,<br />

94(3):200.<br />

Velleman, P.F. (2008) “Truth, Damn Truth, and Statistics.” Journal of<br />

Statistics Education, 16(2): www.amstat.org/publications/jse/v16n2/<br />

velleman.html.<br />

Velleman, P.F. (2003) “Thinking With Data: Seven Unnatural Acts<br />

and Ten 400-Year-Old Aphorisms.” Keynote address to the Beyond<br />

the Formula conference, Rochester, New York.<br />

Weiss, Cindy. (2006) “New York Philharmonic Selects<br />

UConn Prof to Revive Concert Series.” http://advance.uconn.<br />

edu/2006/060424/06042412.htm<br />

they may study. The reason they are taking statistics<br />

(or perhaps, the reason it’s required) is that they<br />

are accumulating the kind of knowledge about the<br />

real world that will help them write literature and<br />

read philosophy, and that kind of knowledge makes<br />

them qualified to make statistical judgments. Of<br />

course, by asking students to call upon what they’ve<br />

learned in other courses, we are encouraging them<br />

to solidify their knowledge from those courses.<br />

Third, we must actually require students to<br />

demonstrate all the steps of a statistical analysis,<br />

from problem formulation to communicating the<br />

results to making real-world recommendations on<br />

what they find. Unfortunately, homework and<br />

exam problems that carry these requirements are<br />

harder to write and harder to grade. Training teaching<br />

assistants to reliably grade these efforts can be<br />

problematic. Moreover, many statistics instructors<br />

are not trained in statistics, and they, too, can find<br />

this approach challenging. But, the results of teaching<br />

a modern course reward both the student and<br />

teacher, in spite of its challenges.<br />

We should also face outward to the academic<br />

community. There is a widespread<br />

impression<br />

that introductory<br />

statistics can be taught—or even less plausible, can<br />

be learned—in a single term. Any objective consideration<br />

of the breadth and depth of the concepts<br />

and methods covered shows this to be absurdly<br />

optimistic. Yet, few academic programs require<br />

more than one course, and many of those that<br />

require two are cutting back. We need to argue as a<br />

discipline that an introductory statistics course must<br />

cover more than an introduction to inference for<br />

means if it is to teach the reasoning of statistics—<br />

and that teaching that reasoning must be its goal<br />

(not just teaching definitions and formulas.) But,<br />

a more complete course that covers techniques that<br />

require more than rudimentary sophistication, such<br />

as inference for regression and multiple regression,<br />

is unlikely to have time to teach judgment, planning,<br />

and communication. It will most likely be<br />

pared down to a collection of equations and rules.<br />

As a community, we need to make it clear that<br />

the subject of statistics deserves both more respect<br />

and more time, not because it covers so many<br />

methods, but because it should teach the foundations<br />

of reasoning when we have data. Part of the<br />

argument might be that, unlike students in subjects<br />

that exhibit prodigies, our students must summon<br />

their real-world knowledge to learn to think statistically.<br />

And, that the effort by statistics teachers and<br />

students will pay back correspondingly in all our<br />

students do. Math is sometimes said to be the language<br />

of science (and much social science), but statistics<br />

should teach students the structure for what<br />

it communicates.<br />

Is the effort to teach the modern course<br />

worth it? We believe it is. Rather than a collection<br />

of techniques or a ‘cookbook’ of situations<br />

and formulas, a modern course in statistics<br />

must teach students to reason about the<br />

world. Although that makes the course more<br />

difficult to teach and assess, it will make a difference<br />

in students’ lives and serve them for the<br />

rest of their academic careers and beyond. ■<br />

Editor’s Note: This paper is based on several<br />

talks given by the authors at the United S tates<br />

Conference on Teaching Statistics (USCOTS).


60 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

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religion, age, color, national origin, handicap, or sexual orientation.<br />

Also look for job ads on the ASA web site at www.amstat.org/jobweb.<br />

PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES<br />

Illinois<br />

■ Full-time assistant professor, tenuretrack<br />

position in the Department of<br />

Preventive Medicine, Northwestern<br />

University. Requires a doctoral degree in<br />

biostatistics or statistics for methodology<br />

research and epidemiologic studies in the<br />

area of cardiovascular disease. Excellent<br />

communication skills are essential. To<br />

apply, send CV and references to: Marie<br />

Lee, Department of Preventive Medicine,<br />

NU Feinberg School of Medicine, 680<br />

N. Lake Shore Suite 1102, Chicago, IL<br />

60611. Northwestern University is an<br />

affirmative action/equal opportunity<br />

employer.<br />

■ Faculty biostatistician, Department of<br />

Internal Medicine. PhD in biostatistics or<br />

related field required. Background in longitudinal<br />

analysis and field epidemiologic<br />

studies highly desirable. Excellent communication<br />

and computing skills required.<br />

Level of appointment commensurate with<br />

experience. Letter, curriculum vitae, three<br />

references to Carlos F. Mendes de Leon,<br />

PhD, Rush Institute for Healthy Aging,<br />

Rush University Medical Center, 1645<br />

W. Jackson Blvd., Suite 675, Chicago, IL<br />

60612. Rush University Medical Center<br />

is an EOE.<br />

■ Two, non-tenure-track full/associate/assistant<br />

professor positions in the<br />

Biostatistical Collaboration Center.<br />

Requires a doctoral degree in biostatistics/<br />

statistics for collaboration, consultation,<br />

teaching, and research in biomedical field.<br />

Excellent communication skills are essential.<br />

At least one year post-doctoral experience.<br />

To apply, send CV and references<br />

to: Thongsy Singvongsa, Department of<br />

Preventive Medicine, NU Feinberg School<br />

of Medicine, 680 N. Lake Shore Suite<br />

1102, Chicago, IL 60611. Northwestern<br />

University is an affirmative action/equal<br />

opportunity employer.<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 61


PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES<br />

Department Head<br />

The University of Texas at Dallas<br />

Department of Mathematical Sciences<br />

The University of Texas at Dallas seeks a distinguished scientist to head its Department<br />

of Mathematical Sciences and enhance its national and international stature. A Ph.D. in<br />

Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, Statistics, or related fi eld is required together with a<br />

proven record of scholarly research commensurate with tenure at the full professor level.<br />

The successful candidate will have a multidisciplinary research emphasis and will present a<br />

vision for the future of the department and clear evidence of leadership potential. The position<br />

represents an unusual opportunity to shape a mathematics department for the future in an<br />

expanding, research-oriented university with strong science, engineering, and management<br />

emphases. Salary will be commensurate with qualifi cations<br />

and experience.<br />

The department maintains strong undergraduate and graduate degree programs in<br />

mathematics, applied mathematics, statistics, and bioinformatics and computational<br />

biology, and expects to add M.S. and Ph.D. degree programs in Actuarial Mathematics and<br />

Biostatistics in the near future.<br />

The university is located in the rapidly growing and increasingly cosmopolitan suburbs of<br />

North Dallas amid one of the largest and most vibrant concentrations of high technology,<br />

multi-national corporations in the nation, including a substantial energy sector. For more<br />

information, visit http://www.utdallas.edu.<br />

Inquiries may be addressed to:<br />

Dr. Raimund Ober, Professor, Chair of the Search Committee, ober@utdallas.edu<br />

Dr. Michael Baron, Professor, mbaron@utdallas.edu<br />

Dr. Mieczyslaw K Dabkowski, Assistant Professor, mdab@utdallas.edu<br />

Dr. Sam Efromovich, Endowed Professor, efrom@utdallas.edu<br />

Dr. Robert Hilborn, Professor & Department Head, rhilborn@utdallas.edu<br />

Dr. David Lewis, Senior Lecturer II, dlewis@utdallas.edu<br />

Dr. Viswanath Ramakrishna, Professor, vish@utdallas.edu<br />

Review of applications will begin November 17, 2008, and will continue until the position is<br />

fi lled. The successful candidate will fi ll the position effective August 2009, although other<br />

arrangements are negotiable.<br />

Candidates should submit a complete resume or curriculum vitae, a statement of research<br />

interests, a letter describing his/her vision for the development of the department, and the<br />

contact information (names, addresses, telephone numbers, and email) for fi ve professional<br />

references. Electronic applications may be submitted via http://go.utdallas.edu/<br />

facultyjobs and are highly encouraged. The electronic process will allow candidates to<br />

upload documents into a secure space directly from their computers. Emailed materials<br />

will not be accepted. Indication of gender and ethnic origin for affi rmative action statistical<br />

purposes is requested as part of the application process but is not required for consideration.<br />

Alternatively, application materials may be mailed to:<br />

Academic Search #20096<br />

The University of Texas at Dallas<br />

Mail Station AD 42, Room MP 2.228<br />

800 West Campbell Road<br />

Richardson, Texas 75080-3021<br />

U.S.A.<br />

The University of Texas at Dallas is an equal opportunity/affi rmative action university and<br />

encourages applicants from candidates who would enhance the diversity of the<br />

university’s faculty and administration.<br />

62 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Maryland<br />

■ Seeking PhD/experienced master’s<br />

statisticians for Center for Devices<br />

and Radiological Health, FDA, HHS.<br />

Grapple with rich array of statistical<br />

issues in clinical trials for new technologies,<br />

from LASIK and artificial hearts to<br />

genetic tests and robotic surgery. Review<br />

statistical designs/analyses issues in medical<br />

devices from invention to postmarket.<br />

Send CV to Greg Campbell, 1350<br />

Piccard Drive, HFZ-550, Rockville MD<br />

20850, greg.campbell@fda.hhs.gov. FDA<br />

is a smoke-free environment and an equal<br />

opportunity employer. Permanent residency<br />

required.<br />

Massachusetts<br />

■ The Center for Health Policy and<br />

Research at UMass Medical School seeks<br />

a senior biostatistician for appointment<br />

at the associate professor level or above.<br />

Responsibilities: health services/policy<br />

study design and consultation to faculty<br />

developing scientific proposals and publications.<br />

Qualifications: PhD in statistics<br />

or closely related discipline, 5+ years postdoctoral<br />

experience, including applied<br />

research design and preparation of proposals<br />

for competitive funding, good interpersonal<br />

skills. www.umassmed.edu/chpr/<br />

index.aspx. University of Massachusetts<br />

Medical School is an AA/EOE.<br />

■ Massachusetts Institute of Technology<br />

Mathematics Department seeking to fill<br />

combined teaching and research positions<br />

at instructor, assistant professor,<br />

or higher levels in statistics or applied<br />

probability beginning September 2009.<br />

Appointments are mainly based on<br />

exceptional research qualifications. PhD<br />

required by employment start date.<br />

Submit online at www.mathjobs.org: CV,<br />

research description, three recommendation<br />

letters. Applications should be complete<br />

by 1/1/2009. (See full classified text<br />

at mathjobs for more information.). MIT<br />

is an equal opportunity, affirmative action<br />

employer.


■ Tufts University School of Dental<br />

Medicine seeks a doctoral-level statistician<br />

to collaborate with students and faculty<br />

on clinical and basic science research<br />

and teach introductory statistics. PhD or<br />

equivalent in statistics, biostatistics, or epidemiology;<br />

research experience; familiarity<br />

with statistical software packages (SAS<br />

and SPSS); teaching experience; strong<br />

communication skills. Contact: Paul<br />

Stark, MS, ScD, Director of Advanced<br />

and Graduate Education, paul.stark@<br />

tufts.edu. Tufts University is an AA/EOE<br />

employer and actively seeks candidates<br />

from diverse backgrounds.<br />

■ The MIT Sloan School of Management<br />

seeks applicants for a tenure-track faculty<br />

position in statistics starting July 1, 2009.<br />

Applicants should possess a PhD in a relevant<br />

field by date of appointment. Please<br />

submit your curriculum vitae, relevant<br />

Faculty Position<br />

Biostatistician<br />

The Division of Public Health Sciences<br />

The Division of Public Health Sciences of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center invites<br />

applications for a faculty level biostatistician with an interest in the conduct and analysis of cancer<br />

clinical trials and associated correlative studies to work primarily with the Southwest Oncology Group<br />

(SWOG) <strong>Statistical</strong> Center. SWOG is an NCI-funded national research network that conducts clinical<br />

trials and related studies aimed at the prevention or cure of cancer. Experience with methodological<br />

and collaborative research in clinical trials or high dimensional data analysis (genomics, proteomics) in<br />

the context of clinical studies is desired. The position will be at the rank of either Assistant or Associate<br />

Member (equivalent, respectively, to Assistant or Associate Professor at a university). An established<br />

track record is required for a position at the Associate Member level. The incumbent will be expected<br />

to conduct an active program of independent and collaborative research pertinent to the mission of<br />

the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center and the Division of Public Health Sciences. The Fred<br />

Hutchinson Cancer Research Center is a world-renowned research institution with large and active<br />

efforts in basic biological sciences, human biology, clinical research, epidemiology, biostatistics and<br />

cancer prevention research. Its mission is the elimination of cancer as a cause of human suffering and<br />

death. The Center conducts research of the highest standards to improve prevention and treatment of<br />

cancer and related diseases. The Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center is an equal opportunity<br />

employer. The Center has a culturally diverse faculty and strongly encourages applications from female<br />

and minority candidates.<br />

Deadline for applications is November 15, 2008. Please send applications including curriculum vitae,<br />

a letter describing research interests, and the names of four references to:<br />

Search Committee Chair<br />

Division of Public Health Sciences<br />

Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center<br />

1100 Fairview Avenue North<br />

M2-B500, Box 19024<br />

Seattle, WA 98109-1024<br />

The Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center is an equal opportunity employer.<br />

Novartis Oncology –<br />

Join an Industry Leader<br />

At Novartis Oncology, our mission is to become the world’s premier oncology company by consistently discovering,<br />

developing, and producing broadly available novel therapies that improve and extend the lives of cancer patients.<br />

Our work is about harnessing the power of the imagination. It’s about applying our pooled experience in new ways, exploring new possibilities<br />

and novel pathways, and fi nding better solutions for patients. Our primary goal is to research and develop new and more effective ways to treat<br />

cancer—in essence, to bring our vision of research to life. Our passion is about believing in our ability to change the way cancer is treated—and<br />

acting on this belief. Evidence of turning our thought into action can be seen in our array of innovative products designed to treat a variety of cancers.<br />

It is evident through our efforts in medical education, and through our unprecedented level of support, education, and fi nancial assistance<br />

for patients. Our portfolio provides a broad range of innovative therapies and practical solutions that enhance the lives of patients and their families.<br />

Our efforts to discover and develop innovative approaches for the treatment of cancer have produced breakthrough medicines such as the<br />

leukemia therapy Gleevec®/Glivec®; the breast cancer agent Femara® and Zometa® for the treatment of cancer-related bone complications.<br />

We have approximately 3800 employees and operate in 50 countries. Our main locations include our global offi ces in Florham Park, New Jersey<br />

and Basel, Switzerland.<br />

Biostatistics and <strong>Statistical</strong> Reporting opportunities<br />

At Novartis Oncology Global Development, we believe our people are our greatest strength. It is through their passion for our work that we can<br />

provide novel therapies to patients in need. Within our Global Oncology Biostatistics and <strong>Statistical</strong> Reporting organization, we have several outstanding<br />

opportunities available for statisticians and statistical programmers to be based in our global offi ces in New Jersey.<br />

Skill and Experience Requirements<br />

For both statisticians and statistical programmers, excellent quantitative abilities and communication skills (written, verbal and presentation) are<br />

a must with a high level of analytical and conceptual ability in order to provide strategic focus to projects. Candidates must have a proven track<br />

record of strong execution and results. Educationally, a PhD is preferred for our Biostatistics opportunities.<br />

For our Programming opportunities a Bachelors degree is required and an advanced degree is strongly preferred. Education and experience<br />

in Statistics is highly preferred. These positions require experience in the use of statistical software, particularly SAS. Experience analyzing and<br />

reporting clinical research data is highly desired especially experience with Oncology data.<br />

Email: Natalie.Wood@novartis.com Linda.Finelli@novartis.com<br />

Novartis Oncology 180 Park Avenue Bldg 104/2K37 Florham Park, NJ 07932<br />

Novartis Oncology is an EOE - MFVH<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 63<br />

PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES


PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES<br />

64 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

publications, a statement of objectives<br />

and aspirations in research and education,<br />

information about teaching experience<br />

and performance, and three recommendation<br />

letters by December 1, 2008 to:<br />

stat-search@mit.edu. MIT is an equal<br />

opportunity employer committed to<br />

building a culturally diverse intellectual<br />

community and strongly encourages<br />

applications from women and minorities.<br />

■ Amherst College, Assistant Professor<br />

of Mathematics (Statistics). Tenure-track<br />

position in the mathematics and computer<br />

science department, beginning fall<br />

2009. PhD in statistics, biostatistics, or<br />

related field required with evidence of<br />

excellence in both teaching and research.<br />

Two courses per semester: statistics and<br />

some mathematics. See www.amherst.<br />

edu/~deanfac for details. Applications<br />

(by December 15, 2008) and inquiries<br />

to search@math.amherst.edu. Amherst<br />

College is an AA/EOE.


New Jersey<br />

■ Novo Nordisk Inc., U.S. affiliate of<br />

Novo Nordisk A/S in Copenhagen,<br />

Denmark, a world leader in diabetes care,<br />

currently has an opening for an associate<br />

director, biostatistics within our clinical<br />

development division in our corporate<br />

headquarters in Princeton, NJ. For more<br />

information or to apply online, please visit<br />

the careers section of our web site, www.<br />

novonordisk-us.com, and reference position<br />

number 1162BR. EOE.<br />

North Carolina<br />

■ Bioinformatician for the Section of<br />

<strong>Statistical</strong> Genetics and Bioinformatics,<br />

Biostatistical Sciences, Division of Public<br />

Health Sciences, Wake Forest University<br />

Health Sciences. Research collaboration<br />

in genomics, proteomics, imaging,<br />

bioinformatics, and related disciplines.<br />

Provides bioinformatics solutions and<br />

The Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics of the Rollins School of<br />

Public Health and Woodruff Health Sciences Center of Emory University, Atlanta,<br />

Georgia, seeks a proven scholar and innovative leader to chair a growing and<br />

dynamic department in a vibrant school and outstanding health sciences center.<br />

The Rollins Chair is supported by endowment funds.<br />

Candidates should possess a doctoral degree in an appropriate discipline; a strong<br />

record of academic research and teaching, particularly at the graduate level;<br />

a demonstrated capacity to secure external funding to support research; and a<br />

compelling vision for an integrated faculty and programs in biostatistics and<br />

bioinformatics. The candidate should have a capacity for exceptional leadership<br />

in an academic setting and be able to foster multidisciplinary collaboration among<br />

academic departments and centers both within and outside Emory University.<br />

The current Department consists of 33 primary and joint faculty members as well<br />

as 21 adjunct faculty members http://www.sph.emory.edu/bios/index.php. The<br />

Department has grown rapidly in recent years with active research programs in<br />

statistical modeling, spatial statistics, bioinformatics, imaging, survival analysis,<br />

misclassifi cation models and multivariate survival models as well as health<br />

preparedness, infectious diseases, cancer, cardiovascular and renal diseases, and<br />

mental health.<br />

DEPARTMENT CHAIR AND ENDOWED ROLLINS PROFESSOR<br />

DEPARTMENT OF BIOSTATISTICS AND BIOINFORMATICS<br />

ROLLINS SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH and WOODRUFF HEALTH SCIENCES CENTER OF<br />

EMORY UNIVERSITY<br />

The Chair will be expected to provide guidance and vision to the development of<br />

an expanding department at the interface of biostatistics and bioinformatics while<br />

performing as a scholar, a teacher in the department’s graduate academic programs,<br />

a faculty colleague and mentor, and a leader in the school and university.<br />

Within the school and the Woodruff Health Sciences Center, there are substantial<br />

Emory is an Equal Opportunity/Affi rmative Action Employer<br />

opportunities for research collaborations in clinical trials, the new Atlanta Clinical<br />

and Translational Sciences Institute, computational life sciences, population based<br />

studies, emerging technologies and university-wide initiatives in global health,<br />

predictive health and neurosciences. The successful candidate will be expected<br />

to capitalize on a wide range of collaborative opportunities at Emory and with<br />

nearby institutions, including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, The<br />

Georgia Institute of Technology (e.g., the Emory-Georgia Tech Nanotechnology<br />

Center for Personalized and Predictive Oncology) and other local universities.<br />

The Rollins School of Public Health is dedicated to teaching and research,<br />

currently employs 140 full-time faculty members and enrolls over 900 full and<br />

part-time graduate students in its masters and doctoral programs http://www.sph.<br />

emory.edu/index.php. The department offers MPH, MSPH and PhD degrees and<br />

a combined 5-year BS/MSPH degree with Emory College. The school is located<br />

on the Emory campus in close proximity to the Centers for Disease Control and<br />

Prevention, Emory’s Graduate Division of Biological and Biomedical Sciences,<br />

School of Nursing, School of Medicine, Yerkes National Primate Research Center<br />

and the Winship Cancer Institute and is near the <strong>American</strong> Cancer Society headquarters.<br />

A major research university, Emory enrolls 11,350 students in undergraduate,<br />

graduate and professional programs http://www.emory.edu.<br />

Applicants should send a letter indicating their interest and a curriculum vitae to:<br />

Melissa Sherrer, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton<br />

Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30322 USA, preferably via email to msherre@sph.emory.<br />

edu. Screening of applications will begin immediately and continue until the position<br />

is fi lled. Starting date is negotiable. Applications will be considered confi dential<br />

and references will not be contacted without the permission of the applicant.<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 65<br />

PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES


PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES<br />

66 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

software development for publications<br />

and research proposals. Email CV, research<br />

statement, and three letters of reference to<br />

dbsrecruit@wfubmc.edu. Wake Forest<br />

University Health Sciences is an equal<br />

opportunity/affirmative action employer.<br />

Ohio<br />

■ Associate/full professor, statistics, Miami<br />

University, Oxford, Ohio. Visit www.<br />

muohio.edu/mathstat/stat_ad08.html for<br />

details. Send CV, transcripts, research<br />

description, teaching philosophy, and 4<br />

letters of recommendation to statsearch@<br />

muohio.edu. At least one letter should<br />

discuss teaching ability and potential.<br />

Application screening begins 10/15/08<br />

and continues until the position is filled.<br />

Miami University is an EOE/AA employer<br />

with smoke-free campuses. Campus Crime<br />

and Safety Report—www.muohio.edu/<br />

righttoknow. Hard copy upon request.<br />

■ Cleveland Clinic: biostatisticians, outcomes<br />

researchers, and statistical programmers;<br />

doctoral, masters, and bachelors<br />

levels. The clinic is a nonprofit academic<br />

medical center known globally as a leader<br />

in patient care, research, and education.<br />

Its Department of Quantitiative Health<br />

Sciences has over 90 professionals, including<br />

more than 50 biostatisticians and<br />

statistical programmers. Openings are<br />

posted at www.clevelandclinic.org/qhs. The<br />

Cleveland Clinic is an equal opportunity<br />

employer.<br />

Pennsylvania<br />

■ Assistant Director/Associate Director<br />

Biostatistics (Clinical Neuroscience).<br />

Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, Collegeville/<br />

Philadelphia, PA. A senior biostatistician<br />

opportunity is available in the CNS<br />

group of Wyeth Pharmaceuticals, which<br />

has one of the most robust Alzheimer’s<br />

pipelines in the industry. Be responsible<br />

for strategy and the overall statistical<br />

support for key clinical projects.


Thinking of Your<br />

Future?<br />

Let the ASA help you realize<br />

your professional goals.<br />

Visit the ASA’s JobWeb—The JobWeb is a<br />

targeted job database and résumé-posting service<br />

www.amstat.org/jobweb<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 67<br />

PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES


PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES<br />

68 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

Details about this position and others<br />

can be found at www.wyeth.com/<br />

careers. (Requisition #21390). EOE,<br />

M/F/D/V.<br />

Texas<br />

■ University of Texas Health Science<br />

Center, Houston, is seeking a senior<br />

biostatistician. The position offers extensive<br />

opportunities for research leadership/collaboration<br />

in the Coordinating<br />

Center for Clinical Trials. Responsibilities<br />

include holding leadership positions in<br />

clinical trials, conducting biostatistical<br />

research (methodological/collaborative),<br />

teaching. Qualifications include earned<br />

doctorate in biostatistics/related field,<br />

commitment to teaching, evidence of<br />

research/recognition in biostatistics/<br />

clinical trials. Contact Barry Davis,<br />

MD, PhD, barry.r.davis@uth.tmc.edu.<br />

UTHS C is an EOE.<br />

continued on page 71


BIOSTATISTICS and CLINICAL TRIALS<br />

Faculty Position<br />

The University of Texas School of Public Health (UTSPH) invites applications from senior investigators<br />

in biostatistics to fi ll a tenure track faculty position at the Associate or Full Professor level at<br />

the UTSPH Houston Campus in the Texas Medical Center.<br />

The position off ers extensive opportunities for research leadership and collaboration within<br />

the UTSPH Coordinating Center for Clinical Trials, which has made signifi cant contributions to<br />

cardiovascular disease and vision research by serving as a coordinating center for 17 nationwide<br />

multicenter clinical trials. Responsibilities include: holding leadership positions in clinical trials;<br />

conducting biostatistical research (methodological and collaborative); teaching biostatistics<br />

courses for students in MS, PhD, MPH, and DrPH degree programs; advising graduate students;<br />

and participating in community service.<br />

Qualifi cations include: (1) earned doctorate in biostatistics or related fi eld; (2) commitment to<br />

excellence in teaching and advising graduate students; (3) evidence of both methodological and<br />

collaborative research accomplishments in clinical trials; (4) evidence of national/international<br />

recognition in biostatistics and clinical trials; and (5) excellence in written and oral communication<br />

skills.<br />

Review of applications will begin immediately and continue until the position is fi lled. Academic<br />

rank will be determined by the qualifi cations of the candidate. Candidates should e-mail a letter<br />

describing their qualifi cations and interests along with their curriculum vitae, and contact information<br />

for three professional references to:<br />

Barry R. Davis, M.D., Ph.D., Chair, Biostatistics Search Committee, The University of Texas Health<br />

Science Center at Houston, School of Public Health, 1200 Herman Pressler, E-809, Houston, Texas<br />

77030, FAX: 713-500-9530, email: Barry.R.Davis@uth.tmc.edu<br />

The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston is an EO/AA employer. M/F/D/V. Minorities and<br />

women are strongly encouraged to apply. This is a security-sensitive position and thereby subject to Texas<br />

Education code §51.215. A background check will be required for the fi nal candidate.<br />

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SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 69<br />

PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES


PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES<br />

70 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008


■ The University of Texas School of<br />

Public Health is seeking a director of<br />

the Division of Biostatistics. Leadership<br />

of the division requires the vision to<br />

develop new programs, to increase and<br />

complement the success of existing<br />

programs, and to mentor junior<br />

faculty and students. Candidates<br />

must have a PhD in biostatistics or<br />

statistics and have progressed to the<br />

rank of full professor. Information<br />

contact: Robert.J.Hardy@uth.tmc.<br />

edu. The University of Texas Health<br />

Science Center at Houston is an EO/<br />

AA Employer. M/F/D/V. Minorities<br />

and women are strongly encouraged<br />

to apply. ■<br />

Expand Your Career Horizons!<br />

Visit the ASA JobWeb at www.<br />

amstat.org/jobweb/index.cfm<br />

Instructor Position<br />

at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine Department<br />

of Social and Behavioral Health<br />

The Department of Social and Behavioral Health Virginia Commonwealth University School of<br />

Medicine seeks applicants for an academic position at the Instructor level in the area of Biostatistics,<br />

Social Epidemiology, or related fi eld. The appointee’s responsibilities will include collaborative and<br />

independent research related to social and behavioral sciences.<br />

Applicants must have graduate level training in Biostatistics, quantitative methodology and/<br />

or Epidemiology, strong interest in collaborative work with faculty, and a record of peer-reviewed<br />

publications in applied behavioral research. Candidates should have a working knowledge of<br />

statistical software packages (e.g., SPSS, SAS) for data analysis and statistical modeling. Candidates<br />

with an interest in cancer research are highly desirable. This position will provide support,<br />

consultation and collaboration for researchers specializing in various aspects of social and behavioral<br />

health and cancer research. The candidate will provide consultation on statistical methods<br />

commonly used in behavioral and cancer research. The candidate will be expected to work closely<br />

with researchers in writing grant proposals and articles for publication. The successful candidate will<br />

be encouraged to develop their own research program.<br />

The Department of Social and Behavioral Health (http://www.behavioralhealth.vcu.edu/) at VCU<br />

has multiple externally funded research projects involving various aspects of health behavior and the<br />

social context of healthcare outcomes. Faculty in the Department of Social and Behavioral Health are<br />

closely linked to the Massey Cancer Center (http://www.massey.vcu.edu/) at VCU, which is one of the<br />

nation’s NCI-designated cancer center offering outstanding opportunities for research.<br />

Candidates should send a cover letter with their CV and the names of three references to:<br />

Chair, Instructor Search Committee, Department of Social and Behavioral Health<br />

Virginia Commonwealth University, McGuire Hall Annex<br />

1112 East Clay Street, P.O. Box 980149<br />

Richmond, VA 23298-0149<br />

Consideration of application materials will continue until the position is fi lled.<br />

VCU is an urban, research intensive institution with a diverse university community and<br />

commitment to multicultural opportunities. VCU is an equal opportunity/affi rmative action<br />

employer. Women, minorities, and persons with disabilities are encouraged to apply.<br />

Open Faculty Positions<br />

Biostatistics Support Unit Director and<br />

RAHC Biostatistics Core Director<br />

The Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio has two positions open. We seek a Director for<br />

our new Biostatistics Support Unit (BSU). The BSU provides coordinated study design and statistical support for clinical and translational research within the university<br />

community and with partner organizations. The BSU Director supervises and assigns projects to BSU personnel; monitors project flow and deadlines; maintains<br />

contact with investigators to track project progress; tracks grant reviews and funding or publication status; and oversees the collection of web-based quality evaluations<br />

of services. We also seek a Director for our new Biostatistics Unit that will be located in our Regional Academic Health Center (RAHC) in Harlingen, Texas. The<br />

Biostatistics Unit will provide coordinated study design, statistical and clinical informatics support for clinical and translational researchers in our campuses located in<br />

Harlingen and Edinburg, Texas in the Rio Grande Valley. The Unit Director will provide direct collaborative support for RAHC researchers.<br />

These positions require a DrPH, a PhD in Biostatistics or Statistics, or a PhD in a related health science discipline. We strongly prefer 5 or more years of postdoctoral<br />

experience in a collaborative research environment. Successful candidates are expected to have outstanding collaborative scientific research experience, as<br />

well as excellent verbal and written communication skills. The candidates will be expected to help expand academic mission of the Department of Epidemiology and<br />

Biostatistics in the School of Medicine.<br />

Currently, the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, consisting of 29 faculty and 25 staff, is a part of several large research programs such as the CTSAfunded<br />

Institute for Integration of Medicine and Science (IIMS), the Cancer Therapy & Research Center, Greehey Children's Cancer Research Institute, and the<br />

Barshop Institute for Longevity and Aging Studies. The department’s activities span basic, translational, clinical and population-based research. Several other new<br />

departmental faculty will be located in Harlingen, Texas.<br />

The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio is located in suburban Northwest San Antonio.<br />

Interested candidates should send a letter of interest, curriculum vitae along with names, addresses and phone numbers of three references to:<br />

John E. Cornell, Ph.D., Chair, Search Committee<br />

Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics<br />

The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio<br />

7703 Floyd Curl Drive, Mail Code 7933<br />

San Antonio, TX 78229-3900<br />

The University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio is an Equal Employment Opportunity/Affirmative Action Employer.<br />

All faculty appointments are designated as security sensitive positions.<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 71<br />

PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES


PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES<br />

Associate/Assistant<br />

Professor of Epidemiology<br />

The Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School of<br />

Public Health, University of Pittsburgh invites applications<br />

for a faculty position at the Associate or Assistant<br />

Professor level in the Epidemiology Data Center<br />

(EDC). A tenure stream or non tenure stream position<br />

is available, with teaching required for a tenure stream<br />

appointment. Candidates at the Associate Professor<br />

level must have a record of external funding and<br />

peer-reviewed publications. Candidates at the Assistant<br />

Professor level should have demonstrated potential for<br />

external funding and peer-reviewed publications. The<br />

faculty member will be expected to develop his/her<br />

own research, publish in peer-reviewed journals and<br />

collaborate with clinical investigators. The successful<br />

candidate will have excellent communication skills. A<br />

doctoral degree in Statistics, Biostatistics, Epidemiology,<br />

Bioinformatics or a related fi eld, or a medical degree<br />

with graduate training in public health is required. All<br />

specialty areas will be considered, but bioinformatics,<br />

clinical trials, epidemiological modeling and genetics<br />

will be given high priority. For information about the<br />

Epidemiology Data Center visit http://www.edc.gsph.<br />

pitt.edu. Salary and rank will be commensurate with<br />

experience. Applications will be reviewed until position<br />

is fi lled.<br />

Applicants should send to Position #0124944, curriculum<br />

vitae, a letter indicating area(s) of expertise and<br />

a list of three references to:<br />

Steven Belle, PhD<br />

Graduate School of Public Health<br />

University of Pittsburgh<br />

504 Parran Hall<br />

Pittsburgh, PA 15261<br />

The University of Pittsburgh is an Affi rmative Action<br />

Equal Opportunity Employer.<br />

72 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

ASA’s Online<br />

FORUM<br />

is available to members.<br />

The forum encourages general discussion related<br />

to statistics. Access to the forum may be<br />

found in the ASA Members Only<br />

area at www.amstat.org/membersonly.


SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 73<br />

PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES


PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES


Professor/Associate<br />

Professor of Epidemiology<br />

(Two Vacancies)<br />

The Department of Epidemiology, Graduate School<br />

of Public Health, University of Pittsburgh invites<br />

applications for faculty positions at the Professor<br />

or Associate Professor level in The Epidemiology<br />

Data Center (EDC). Tenure stream or non tenure<br />

stream positions are available, with teaching required<br />

for a tenure stream appointment. Candidates must<br />

have a record of external funding and peer-reviewed<br />

publications as well as have excellent communication<br />

skills. Faculty members will be expected to further<br />

develop their own research, publish in peer-reviewed<br />

journals and collaborate with clinical investigators<br />

both nationally and within the University of Pittsburgh.<br />

A doctoral degree in Statistics, Biostatistics,<br />

Epidemiology, Bioinformatics or a related fi eld, or a<br />

medical degree with graduate training in public health<br />

is required. All specialty areas will be considered,<br />

but bioinformatics, clinical trials, epidemiological<br />

modeling and genetics will be given high priority.<br />

For information about the Epidemiology Data Center<br />

visit http://www.edc.gsph.pitt.edu. Salary and rank will be<br />

commensurate with experience. Applications will be<br />

reviewed until positions are fi lled.<br />

Applicants should send to Position # 0124942,<br />

curriculum vitae, a letter indicating area(s) of expertise<br />

and a list of three references to:<br />

Steven Belle, PhD<br />

Graduate School of Public Health<br />

University of Pittsburgh<br />

504 Parran Hall<br />

Pittsburgh, PA 15261<br />

The University of Pittsburgh is an Affi rmative Action<br />

Equal Opportunity Employer.<br />

SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 75<br />

PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES


PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES<br />

76 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

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SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 77


■ Teaching Statistics: Resources for<br />

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78 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

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Grant Program<br />

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Joint <strong>Statistical</strong> Meetings (JSM)<br />

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As a member of the ASA, you have access to<br />

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org/membersonly.<br />

Reciprocal Societies of the ASA<br />

The ASA is happy to announce an additional<br />

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membership/devcountries/app<br />

for more information.<br />

Salary Report<br />

An annual report of salaries of academic statisticians<br />

for instructors, assistant professors, associate<br />

professors, and full professors is available<br />

online at www.amstat.org/profession.<br />

ASA RESOURCES DIRECTORY<br />

Other Resources<br />

Advertising<br />

Advertise in the ASA’s most popular publications or<br />

online. ASA corporate and institutional members<br />

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Please visit www.amstat.org/advertising or email<br />

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ASA Calendar of Events<br />

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Promote your meetings and events through the<br />

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Author style guidelines are available at<br />

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SEPTEMBER 2008 AMSTAT NEWS 79


September 2008 • Issue #375<br />

80 AMSTAT NEWS SEPTEMBER 2008<br />

AADVERTISING DIRECTORY<br />

MSTATNEWS<br />

Listed below are our display advertisements only. If you are looking for job-placement<br />

ads, please see the professional opportunities section. For more job listings or more<br />

information on advertising, please visit our web site at www.amstat.org.<br />

MISC. PRODUCTS AND SERVICES<br />

Birkhäuser .........................................................................p. 39<br />

Cambridge University Press ...............................................p. 44<br />

CRC Press .........................................................................p. 27<br />

Springer.............................................................................p. 59<br />

PROFESSIONAL OPPORTUNITIES<br />

astellas ...............................................................................p. 74<br />

Cincinnati Children’s Hospital Medical Center .................p. 64<br />

The Cambridge Group......................................................p. 64<br />

Emory University ..............................................................p. 65<br />

Fannie Mae .......................................................................p. 68<br />

Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center.........................p. 63<br />

Mayo Clinic ............................................................... p. 69, 70<br />

NORC ..............................................................................p. 69<br />

Novartis Oncology ............................................................p. 63<br />

RAND Corporation ..........................................................p. 65<br />

SAMSI ..............................................................................p. 73<br />

Smith Hanley ....................................................................p. 76<br />

SUNY Upstate Medical University ....................................p. 66<br />

Takeda Pharmaceutical ......................................................p. 72<br />

U.S. Census Bureau ..........................................................p. 75<br />

The University of Georgia .................................................p. 68<br />

University of Louisville......................................................p. 66<br />

University of Pittsburgh ............................................. p. 72, 75<br />

The University of Texas at Dallas ......................................p. 62<br />

The University of Texas Health Science Center .......... p. 69, 71<br />

The University of Utah .....................................................p. 76<br />

Virginia Commonwealth University ..................... p. 67, 71, 75<br />

Westat ...............................................................................p. 61<br />

SOFTWARE<br />

JMP, a business unit of SAS ..............................................p. 24<br />

MacKichan Software .........................................................p. 22<br />

Minitab, Inc. .............................................................. p. 40, 41<br />

NCSS ................................................................................p. 45<br />

SAS ............................................................................... cover 3<br />

Salford Systems .................................................................p. 42<br />

SPSS ............................................................................. cover 4<br />

StataCorp ..........................................................................p. 53<br />

Stat-Ease, Inc. ...................................................................p. 12<br />

StatPoint/statgraphics ........................................................p. 33<br />

StatSoft ......................................................................... cover 2<br />

SYSTAT ............................................................................p. 57

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