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Volume 1• Issue 1<br />
November 2016<br />
<strong>Criminology</strong>, <strong>Law</strong>, & <strong>Society</strong> <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong><br />
Click to share the newsletter!<br />
A word from our<br />
Department Chair<br />
This newsletter<br />
illustrates<br />
the commitment<br />
to engaged<br />
scholarship of<br />
the highest quality<br />
that is emblematic<br />
of the faculty and<br />
students in the Department of<br />
<strong>Criminology</strong>, <strong>Law</strong> and <strong>Society</strong>.<br />
My thanks to Jason Gravel for<br />
initiating this publication, in<br />
conjunction with the student<br />
Strategic Communication<br />
Committee and congratulations<br />
on a wonderful first issue.<br />
Cheryl L. Maxson<br />
Department Chair and Professor<br />
Featured articles<br />
Melissa Barragan, Nicole Sherman, Keramet Reiter,<br />
& George Tita Page 2<br />
“Damned If You do, Damned If You Don’t”: Perceptions of Guns, Safety<br />
and Legitimacy Among Detained Gun Offenders<br />
Naomi Sugie Page 3<br />
Utilizing Smartphones to Study Disadvantaged and Hard-to-Reach<br />
Groups<br />
Charis Kubrin & Carroll Seron Page 4<br />
The Great Experiment: Realigning Criminal Justice in California and<br />
Beyond<br />
Richard McCleary, David McDowall, & Brad Bartos Page 5<br />
Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments<br />
Adam Dunbar, Charis Kubrin, & Nicholas Scurich Page 6<br />
The Threatening Nature of “Rap”<br />
Julie Gerlinger & John Hipp Page 7<br />
Schools and Neighborhood Crime: The Effects of Dropouts, Graduate<br />
Rates, and Test Scores on Youth Crime<br />
CLS @ ASC Page 8<br />
Schedule of presentations by CLS students and faculty at the<br />
American <strong>Society</strong> of <strong>Criminology</strong> meeting<br />
Dear students, faculty, and colleagues,<br />
Introduction to the CLS <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong><br />
I am pleased to introduce the first issue of the CLS <strong>Newsletter</strong>. The goal of this newsletter is to expose<br />
students–old and new–as well as faculty, and whoever else is interested, to the research being done within the<br />
Department of <strong>Criminology</strong>, <strong>Law</strong>, and <strong>Society</strong> at the University of California, Irvine. This quarterly newsletter will<br />
feature summaries of recently published articles, manuscripts under preparation, and other ongoing research<br />
projects by graduate students and faculty. This current issue features six exciting projects happening right<br />
under our roof, most of which showcase the work of incredibly talented graduate students. Some of the projects<br />
presented in this issue have already been the subject of publications in our field’s top journals, while others are<br />
currently under review, or are forthcoming. For published papers, you can access the full articles by clicking<br />
on the hyperlink logo ( ).We are also hoping to get exposure for this research outside the department and<br />
the University through publishing the newsletter on social media.You can also share the papers discussed<br />
in the newsletter on Twitter, Facebook, and LinkedIn by clicking on the relevant logo below the article link.<br />
To know more about the authors, clicking on their names will redirect you to their <strong>Research</strong> Gate, Google<br />
Scholar, or university profile. It is my pleasure to serve as the editor for this year with the help of the Strategic<br />
Communication Committee and we hope that this initiative can help promote the great work being done by<br />
members of our department.<br />
Jason Gravel, Editor<br />
PhD Candidate<br />
CLS <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong> • November 2016 page 1 of 9
Volume 1• Issue 1<br />
November 2016<br />
“Damned If You do, Damned If You Don’t”:<br />
Perceptions of Guns, Safety and Legitimacy Among Detained Gun<br />
Offenders<br />
Melissa Barragan 1 , Nicole Sherman, Keramet Reiter, & George E. Tita<br />
Barragan, M., et al. (2016). Criminal Justice & Behavior, 43(1),140-155.<br />
1 barragm1@uci.edu<br />
Understanding the factors that motivate illicit gun<br />
behavior is necessary for shaping gun policies<br />
that will effectively deter future gun offenders<br />
and maintain public safety. Although some studies<br />
suggest that negative perceptions of the law and<br />
safety concerns can influence gun offending patterns,<br />
few have examined how such perceptions develop<br />
and, importantly, how these legal and extra-legal<br />
factors interact to shape individual compliance and<br />
the legitimacy of gun law more generally. To address<br />
these gaps in the literature, this paper draws upon<br />
140 in-depth interviews with gun offenders detained in<br />
Los Angeles County Jails. By leveraging the voices of<br />
serious gun offenders, this paper critically interrogates<br />
the theorized relationship between both guns and<br />
safety and legitimacy and compliance.<br />
Methodology<br />
The data presented in this paper were collected<br />
as part of a multi-city project examining illegal<br />
gun markets from the perspective of detained gun<br />
offenders. Interviews were conducted at four Los<br />
Angeles County Jails between January and October<br />
of 2014. Participants were randomly selected from<br />
a list of detainees held on gun-related charges (e.g.,<br />
felon in possession of a firearm), excluding only those<br />
with safety or mental health designations.<br />
In total,<br />
we interviewed 140 people and 75 refused, for a<br />
final participation rate of 65%. A modified grounded<br />
theory approach was used to develop analytic codes<br />
inductively from the interview data [1].<br />
Results & Conclusions<br />
Findings suggest that the legitimacy-compliance<br />
association is a non-linear, multi-faceted process,<br />
conditioned by a variety of experiences and<br />
perspectives. At the heart of this relationship is<br />
perceived safety. A majority of respondents live<br />
in violence-ridden communities, have been witness<br />
to or been victims of gun violence, and have<br />
experienced myriad abuses at the hands of the law.<br />
Under such circumstances, guns offered respondents<br />
an immediate and reasonable safety-management<br />
strategy.<br />
Yet willingness to subvert the law did not mean<br />
that respondents disavowed the law completely.<br />
Respondents typically perceived the public safety<br />
function of gun law as legitimate, and agreed that<br />
the law should regulate gun possession among those<br />
who inflict the most harm (e.g., violent offenders and<br />
the mentally unstable). Respondents also generally<br />
agreed that the police play an important role in<br />
maintaining community safety.<br />
Unfortunately, the collective, protective utility of both<br />
gun laws and the police appeared to be compromised<br />
by adverse experiences with community violence<br />
and police. Regardless of engagement in criminal<br />
activity, most respondents feared that they would<br />
fall victim violence, and particularly gang violence, if<br />
they did not have a gun. Repeated experiences with<br />
police harassment and abuse further enhanced these<br />
feelings of physical insecurity by tainting respondents’<br />
willingness to trust and cooperate with the authorities.<br />
Taken together, what we have is a ripple effect: if safety<br />
is tenuous, so too is the legitimacy of gun law and, thus,<br />
compliance.<br />
These findings have important implications for both<br />
theory and policy. <strong>Research</strong> shows that gun policies<br />
are generally crafted according deterrence principles.<br />
Although this article did not explore perceptions<br />
of certainty or celerity, respondents’ willingness to<br />
circumvent the law in spite of punitive restrictions<br />
suggests that severity alone is not sufficient to deter<br />
gun offenders. For our sample, fear of crime and<br />
victimization–both by gang members and the police<br />
alike–outweighed fear of punishment. Failure to<br />
address these underlying fears and realities within<br />
communities highly effected by gun risks undermining<br />
the legitimacy and impact of well-intentioned gun<br />
policies.<br />
CLS <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong> • November 2016 page 2 of 9
Utilizing Smartphones to Study Disadvantaged<br />
and Hard-to-Reach Groups<br />
Naomi F. Sugie 1<br />
Sugie, N. F. (2016). Sociological Methods & <strong>Research</strong>. Published online.<br />
Volume 1• Issue 1<br />
November 2016<br />
1 nsugie@uci.edu<br />
Mobile technologies, specifically smartphones,<br />
offer social scientists a potentially powerful<br />
approach to examine the social world. They<br />
enable researchers to collect information that was<br />
previously unobservable or difficult to measure,<br />
expanding the realm of empirical investigation.<br />
For research that concerns resource-poor and<br />
hard-to-reach groups, smartphones may be<br />
particularly advantageous by lessening sample<br />
selection and attrition and by improving measurement<br />
quality of irregular and unstable experiences. At the<br />
same time, smartphones are nascent social science<br />
tools, particularly with less advantaged populations<br />
that may have different phone usage patterns and<br />
privacy concerns.<br />
Methodology<br />
This article discusses the strengths and potential<br />
challenges of utilizing smartphones as research tools<br />
among hard-to-reach groups with less technology<br />
experience. I focus on four main issues of<br />
concern for researchers considering smartphone<br />
studies with similar groups: sample selection and<br />
attrition, measurement of irregular and changeable<br />
patterns, missing data, and researcher effects. I<br />
also discuss several lessons learned that describe<br />
specific strategies for gaining participant trust and<br />
protecting privacy, methods to address heterogeneous<br />
technological skills of participants, and questions to<br />
consider when assessing options for phones and data<br />
plans. I illustrate all of these topics with findings from<br />
the Newark Smartphone Reentry Project (NSRP). The<br />
NSRP sampled participants from a complete census of<br />
eligible men recently released from prison and under<br />
supervision with the New Jersey Parole Board. 135<br />
men received smartphones and phone plans and were<br />
followed via the phones for three months. A smaller<br />
group was also followed with interviews for comparison<br />
purposes.<br />
Results<br />
One of the main advantages of using smartphones<br />
to collect data was that participants seemed to prefer<br />
the use of phones, as opposed to interviews. This<br />
finding was demonstrated both by participants’ higher<br />
initial take-up rate and their statements about the<br />
convenience of smartphone surveys. For groups<br />
that are typically hard to reach, this is a clear<br />
advantage compared to interview or survey methods.<br />
Smartphones also facilitate the collection of detailed<br />
behavioral measures that are often not possible to<br />
obtain with other methods, such as measures of<br />
everyday geographic mobility and social networks.<br />
Moreover, they enable the collection of frequent<br />
self-report answers, which is a particular benefit<br />
for researchers studying groups, topics, or contexts<br />
that are characterized by irregular or changeable<br />
experiences. For researchers considering smartphone<br />
projects, however, the potential Hawthorne effects of<br />
frequent surveys, as well as the provision of phones<br />
and data plans, should be assessed within the scope<br />
and aims of the specific project. As I found in the<br />
NSRP, participants believed that the project provided<br />
benefits during their job search and that their job<br />
search changed as a result of their participation. At<br />
the same time, however, participants in the interview<br />
group also voiced similar beliefs at similar rates.<br />
Conclusions<br />
Social science researchers might consider<br />
capitalizing on researcher effects by incorporating<br />
smartphone-based interventions or experimental<br />
designs to test theories of social behavior; these types<br />
of smartphone-based interventions are increasingly<br />
prominent in other disciplines, particularly health. As<br />
social and communication tools, smartphones are well<br />
suited to social science interventions.<br />
CLS <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong> • November 2016 page 3 of 9
Volume 1• Issue 1<br />
November 2016<br />
The Great Experiment:<br />
Realigning Criminal Justice in California and Beyond<br />
Charis E. Kubrin 1 , & Carroll Seron<br />
Kubrin, C. E., & Seron, C. (2016). Special issue of the ANNALS of the American<br />
Academy of Political and Social Science, 664.<br />
1 ckubrin@uci.edu<br />
Until recently, the state of California was home<br />
to the nation’s largest state prison system.<br />
California’s prison population peaked at 173,000<br />
in 2006, despite the fact that its prisons were designed<br />
to hold a maximum of 79,858 people. In 2011,<br />
the Supreme Court decided that prison conditions<br />
in California were tantamount to cruel and unusual<br />
punishment and required the State to bring its prison<br />
population down to 137.5 percent of design capacity<br />
by reducing the rolls by some 33,000 inmates over a<br />
two-year timeframe. In response, California enacted<br />
a controversial law -Public Safety Realignment -<br />
which transferred responsibility for lower-level felony<br />
offenders from the state correctional system to 58<br />
county jail and probation systems. Today, there are<br />
146,000 fewer Californians supervised either in prison,<br />
jail, parole, or probation than there were prior to<br />
Realignment. The realignment of California corrections<br />
has been described as “the biggest criminal justice<br />
experiment ever conducted in America.” How did<br />
California end up in the Supreme Court? How has<br />
Realignment been implemented in the State? Is the<br />
Realignment experiment working? Going forward,<br />
what can we learn from California?<br />
Objectives<br />
With funding from the National Science Foundation,<br />
the University of California Office of the President, and<br />
the University of California, Irvine, we held a two-day<br />
workshop on prison downsizing and criminal justice<br />
reform at UCI in October of 2014. The goal of the<br />
workshop was to catalyze an interdisciplinary research<br />
agenda to address a series of questions about<br />
Realignment and its impact and to produce findings<br />
that can be valuable to an array of stakeholders,<br />
from the Governor to local officials charged with<br />
implementing Realignment. We conceived of this as a<br />
discussion of the arc of Realignment, from the “cause<br />
lawyering” initiative and the Constitutional questions at<br />
play to its impact on crime and criminal justice policy<br />
and practice. Findings were published in a special<br />
issue of the ANNALS. This volume of The ANNALS<br />
is the first systematic, scientific analysis of the recent<br />
realignment of California corrections.<br />
Results & Conclusions<br />
New historical research describes the social<br />
conditions that undergirded California’s prison buildup,<br />
a politics of avoidance and passing the buck that<br />
influenced decades of policy choices about crime<br />
and punishment, and the role of public interest<br />
lawyers in developing and sustaining the legal<br />
claims that led to the 2011 Supreme Court decision.<br />
Reductions in California incarcerations were neither<br />
politically expedient nor particularly popular. Years<br />
of sustained (and barely funded) “cause lawyering”<br />
was necessary to shepherd change. Historical<br />
analysis also suggests that humanitarian and legal<br />
challenges to hyper-incarceration were aided by the<br />
Great Recession; an extraordinary need for austerity<br />
and financial prudence set the stage for difficult policy<br />
decision-making.<br />
The great shift in responsibility for low-level<br />
offenders from the state to the counties is a remarkable<br />
(and rare) example of devolution of power and<br />
authority. Implementation of Realignment has varied<br />
considerably across counties:some have chosen to<br />
reduce prison populations by adding more bed space<br />
in jails, while others have elected to place more<br />
individuals on probation, and still others have provided<br />
greater rehabilitative services to parolees. Despite<br />
this variation, it is clear that California has progressed<br />
rapidly toward its goal of reducing its prison population<br />
and complying with the Supreme Court order.<br />
Is California becoming more dangerous because<br />
of Realignment? The empirical work published here<br />
suggests that it is not. New research on crime<br />
in the aftermath of Realignment shows that prison<br />
downsizing has had negligible consequences for crime,<br />
one way or another. As one expert puts it, the<br />
criminogenic consequences of Realignment “have<br />
been so far both modest and benign.” County-level<br />
analyses suggest that the release of low-level felony<br />
offenders from state to local governments may actually<br />
improve recidivism outcomes, depending on the<br />
approach that local governments take. Counties that<br />
put resources into reentry services and programs have<br />
seen better recidivism outcomes than those that put<br />
money into more police, sheriffs, or jail beds.<br />
CLS <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong> • November 2016 page 4 of 9
Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments<br />
Richard McCleary, David McDowall 1 , & Brad Bartos 2<br />
Volume 1• Issue 1<br />
November 2016<br />
McCleary, R., et al. (Forthcoming, 2017). Oxford University Press.<br />
1 SUNY Albany 2 bbartos@uci.edu<br />
Design and Analysis of Time Series Experiments<br />
develops a comprehensive set of models and<br />
methods for drawing causal inferences from<br />
time series. Situations where the added expense<br />
of a time series design is warranted fall into two<br />
overlapping categories. The first category consists<br />
of situations where the nature of the underlying<br />
phenomenon is obscured by trends and cycles.<br />
A well-constructed time series model may reveal<br />
the nature of the underlying phenomenon. The<br />
second category consists of situations where a known<br />
intervention and an appropriate control time series<br />
are available. In those situations, a well-designed<br />
time series experiment can support explicitly causal<br />
inferences that are not supported by less expensive<br />
before-after designs. Example analyses of social,<br />
behavioral, and biomedical time series illustrate a<br />
general strategy for building AutoRegressive Integrated<br />
Moving Average (ARIMA) impact models.<br />
Forecasting<br />
While the ”best” ARIMA model will outperform other<br />
forecasting models in the short and medium-run,<br />
long-horizon ARIMA forecasts grow increasingly<br />
inaccurate with diminished utility to the forecaster.<br />
Although the principles of forecasting help provide<br />
deeper insight into the nature of ARIMA models and<br />
modeling, the forecasts themselves are ordinarily of<br />
limited practical value. Forecasting can provide useful<br />
guidance to analysts choosing between two competing<br />
univariate models.<br />
While forecasting accuracy is<br />
only one of many criteria that might be considered,<br />
other things being equal, it is fair to say that a<br />
statistically adequate model of a process should<br />
provide reasonable forecasts of the future.<br />
ARIMA Modeling<br />
The general ARIMA model can be written as the sum<br />
of noise and exogenous components. If an exogenous<br />
impact is trivially small, the noise component can<br />
be identified with the conventional modeling strategy.<br />
If the impact is non-trivial or unknown, the sample<br />
AutoCorrelation Function (ACF) will be distorted in<br />
unknown ways. Although this problem can be solved<br />
most simply when the outcome of interest time series<br />
is long and well-behaved, these time series are<br />
unfortunately uncommon. The preferred alternative<br />
requires that the structure of the intervention is known,<br />
allowing the noise function to be identified from the<br />
residualized time series. Although few substantive<br />
theories specify the ”true” structure of the intervention,<br />
most specify the dichotomous onset and duration of an<br />
impact. The classic Box-Jenkins-Tiao model-building<br />
strategy is supplemented with recent auxiliary tests for<br />
transformation, differencing and model selection.<br />
Validity & Causal Inference<br />
The validity of causal inferences is approached<br />
from two complementary directions. The four-validity<br />
system of Cook and Campbell relies on ruling out<br />
discrete threats to statistical conclusion, internal,<br />
construct and external validity. The common threats to<br />
statistical conclusion validity or, ”validity of inferences<br />
about the correlation (covariance) between treatment<br />
and outcome”, can arise or become plausible through<br />
either model misspecification or through hypothesis<br />
testing.<br />
Rubin Causality & Synthetic Controls<br />
Under the assumption that subjects were randomly<br />
assigned to the treatment and control groups, Rubin’s<br />
causal model allows one to estimate the unobserved<br />
causal parameter from observed data. The Rubin<br />
system causal model relies on the identification<br />
of a control time series chosen so as to render<br />
plausible threats to internal validity implausible.<br />
An appropriate control time series may not exist,<br />
however, an ideal time series may be possible to<br />
construct. The two approaches to causal validity<br />
are shown to be complementary and are illustrated<br />
with a construction of a synthetic control time series.<br />
Synthetic Control Group models construct a control<br />
time series that optimally recreates the treated unit’s<br />
pre-intervention trend using a combination of untreated<br />
donor pool units. Example analyses make optimal<br />
use of graphical illustrations. Mathematical methods<br />
used in the example analyses are explicated in<br />
technical appendices, including expectation algebra,<br />
sequences and series, maximum likelihood, Box-Cox<br />
transformation analyses and probability<br />
CLS <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong> • November 2016 page 5 of 9
The Threatening Nature of “Rap”<br />
Adam Dunbar 1 , Charis E. Kubrin, & Nicholas Scurich<br />
Volume 1• Issue 1<br />
November 2016<br />
Dunbar, A., et al. (2016). Psychology, Public Policy, and <strong>Law</strong>, 22(3), 280-292.<br />
1 dunbara@uci.edu<br />
In 2013, university student and aspiring rapper,<br />
Olutosin Oduwole, was charged with making a<br />
terrorist threat after the police found a slip of paper<br />
in his car. The paper had multiple rap verses on one<br />
side and unrhymed lyrics on the other side, lyrics<br />
which described a “murderous rampage similar to<br />
the Virginia Tech shooting.” Even though Oduwole<br />
explained that the verses were simply notes for a new<br />
rap song he was working on and even though he did<br />
not communicate a threat to anyone, he was charged<br />
with communicating a terrorist threat. Some years<br />
later, a jury found him guilty and he was sentenced<br />
to five years in prison. Oduwole’s case reflects a new<br />
disturbing trend–police and prosecutors are treating<br />
rap lyrics as an admission of guilt or evidence of intent<br />
to commit a crime, rather than as art or entertainment.<br />
These cases typically involve aspiring rappers–nearly<br />
all of whom are young black men from impoverished<br />
communities–who are mimicking the lyrical style and<br />
content of more famous rappers. Critics fear that<br />
prosecutors adopt this strategy because jurors may<br />
not understand the history and genre conventions of<br />
rap music, and instead, may rely on stereotypes when<br />
evaluating the threatening and autobiographical nature<br />
of the lyrics. Next to no research has directly tested<br />
the impact of rap music stereotypes on evaluations of<br />
violent lyrics. The current study addresses this gap in<br />
the literature.<br />
Methodology<br />
This study presents 3 experiments that examine the<br />
impact of genre-specific stereotypes on the evaluation<br />
of violent song lyrics by manipulating the musical<br />
genre while holding constant the actual lyrics. In<br />
•Adam Dunbar, PhD Candidate, received the 2016 Student Paper<br />
Award from the Division of Experimental <strong>Criminology</strong> of the American<br />
<strong>Society</strong> of <strong>Criminology</strong> for his work on ”The Threatening Nature of<br />
Rap Music.”<br />
•Professor Charis Kubrin gave a TEDx talk about her work on the use<br />
of rap lyrics in the courtroom. Click here to watch.<br />
study 1, participants were randomly assigned to one<br />
of two conditions, which experimentally manipulated<br />
the genre of the lyrics (rap or country). However, all<br />
participants read the same violent lyrics. After reading<br />
the lyrics, participants evaluated them by responding<br />
to 14 different items related to the offensiveness of the<br />
lyrics, the threatening nature of the lyrics, the literality<br />
of the lyrics (or how true the lyrics were perceived to<br />
be by respondents), and the need for the song to be<br />
regulated. Study 2 was a conceptual replication of<br />
study 1, wherein the same study design was employed<br />
but with a different set of lyrics. Study 3 experimentally<br />
manipulated the genre label of the lyrics as well as the<br />
race of the author of the lyrics in order to disentangle<br />
the genre label effect with any potential race effect.<br />
The third study also added a control condition where<br />
no genre label was noted in order to test whether the<br />
country label engenders positive or neutral evaluations<br />
and rap negative evaluations.<br />
Results & Conclusions<br />
Study 1 found that participants deemed identical<br />
lyrics more literal, offensive, and in greater need<br />
of regulation when they were characterized as rap<br />
rather than country. Study 2 again detected this effect<br />
with a different set of violent lyrics, underscoring the<br />
robustness of the effect. For study 3, a main effect<br />
was detected for the genre, with rap evaluated more<br />
negatively than country and the “no label” control<br />
condition. However, no effects were found for the race<br />
of the lyrics’ author nor were interactions detected.<br />
Collectively, these findings highlight the possibility that<br />
rap lyrics could inappropriately impact jurors when<br />
admitted as evidence to prove guilt.<br />
Additional information<br />
CLS <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong> • November 2016 page 6 of 9
Volume 1• Issue 1<br />
November 2016<br />
Schools and Neighborhood Crime:<br />
The Effects of Dropouts, Graduate Rates, and Test Scores on Youth<br />
Crime<br />
Julie Gerlinger 1 , & John R. Hipp<br />
Gerlinger, J., & Hipp, J. R. Manuscript under review.<br />
1 jgerlinger@uci.edu<br />
From a criminological perspective, attachment to<br />
school indicates a commitment to conventional<br />
beliefs and goals and is a means of deviance<br />
avoidance. Studies on the effects of schools on<br />
neighborhood crime have generally focused on the<br />
simple presence of or distance to a school rather than<br />
individual school characteristics. Additionally, previous<br />
work utilizes crime, as opposed to juvenile crime, to<br />
investigate this phenomenon–a practice we call into<br />
question<br />
Objectives<br />
We focus on three school characteristics that,<br />
according to social disorganization and routine activity<br />
theories, might affect local crime. More specifically,<br />
we use negative binomial and logistic regression<br />
models to estimate the effects of high school<br />
dropouts, graduate rates, and test scores on juvenile<br />
crime using Orange County, CA as a research site.<br />
crosswalk provided by CDE. Demographic data come<br />
from Census and the American Community Survey<br />
(ACS), and point crime data were collected from the<br />
Orange County Sheriff’s Department. For block-level<br />
data that were not provided by Census or ACS, these<br />
data were imputed using information about the block<br />
groups. We generate a two-mile spatial buffer with<br />
an inverse distance decay function for each school<br />
characteristic so that any school within these buffers<br />
is associated with the focal block.<br />
Figure 1: Public High Schools in the Orange County<br />
Sheriff’s Department Patrol Area<br />
Methods<br />
We combine a number of datasets to create<br />
block-level data from 2000 to 2012. Several school<br />
datasets were retrieved from the California Department<br />
of Education (CDE), which we merge with geographic<br />
identifiers from Common Core for Data using a<br />
Figure 2: Two-Mile Spatial Buffer Example<br />
Results<br />
We find that areas with a higher number of dropouts<br />
are associated with increased juvenile crime (i.e.,<br />
aggravated assault, burglary, and robbery), but schools<br />
with high graduate rates or test scores seem to have<br />
no significant effect on local crime. We also compare<br />
models that predict juvenile crime with models that<br />
predict crime, generally, and argue that juvenile crime<br />
is the theoretically appropriate crime measure.<br />
Conclusions<br />
Our study’s findings, in conjunction with the<br />
numerous long-term socioeconomic benefits reported<br />
for those who complete high school, stresses the<br />
importance of keeping students engaged in school.<br />
We encourage schools to attempt to detect early<br />
warning signs while the student is in middle school and<br />
intervene before it results in serious problem behaviors.<br />
To interrupt this process is to provide the student, the<br />
student’s family, and the community with an opportunity<br />
for a safer and brighter future.<br />
CLS <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong> • November 2016 page 7 of 9
CLS @ ASC<br />
Volume 1• Issue 1<br />
November 2016<br />
American <strong>Society</strong> of <strong>Criminology</strong> Annual Meeting, New Orleans, LA, November 16-19th, 2016<br />
Time Title Authors Place<br />
Wednesday, November 16th<br />
8:00 to 9:20am Can At-Risk Youth be Diverted from Crime? A Meta-Analysis of<br />
Jennifer Wong, Jessica Bouchard, Jason Gravel, Cambridge, 2nd Level<br />
Restorative Diversion Programs<br />
Martin Bouchard, and Carlo Morselli<br />
8:00 to 9:20am Policing the Mentally Ill in Los Angeles Natalie A. Pifer Marlborough B, 2nd Level<br />
8:00 to 9:20am Prison Displacements and Life After Mass Incarceration for the Elderly Anjuli C. Verma Marlborough B, 2nd Level<br />
9:30 to 10:50am A Call for Action: Examining How Residents Mobilize to Effectively James Wo<br />
Prince of Wales, 2nd Level<br />
Combat Crime<br />
9:30 to 10:50am Slumcare and the Fail-State Kenneth A. Cruz Quarterdeck A, Riverside Complex<br />
11:00 to 12:20pm The Varying Effects of Incarceration, Conviction, and Arrest on Wealth Michelle Maroto, and Bryan Sykes<br />
Grand Salon 9, 1st Level<br />
Outcomes Among Young Adults<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm Police Brutality and the Ungendering of Black Women Afiya Browne Fulton, 3rd Level<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm White-Collar Crime and Garland’s Culture of Control Puma Shen Port, Riverside Complex<br />
2:00 to 3:20pm Gang Identity, Performance, and Conflict Transformation in the Online Jenny West-Fagan<br />
Grand Ballroom A, 1st Level<br />
World<br />
2:00 to 3:20pm Frank Tannenbaum: The Making of a Convict Criminologist Elliott Currie Grand Salon 10, 1st Level<br />
2:00 to 3:20pm Progressive Punishment: Job Loss, Jail Growth and the Neoliberal Logic Keramet Reiter<br />
Steering, Riverside Complex<br />
of Carceral Expansion<br />
3:30 to 4:50pm <strong>Criminology</strong> so white? How race/ethnicity is represented, presented, Amanda M. Petersen, and Jody Sundt<br />
Steering, Riverside Complex<br />
and discussed in criminology and criminal justice research<br />
3:30 to 4:50pm Wrongful Conviction Reforms in the United States and the United C. Ronald Huff, and Michael Naughton Grand Salon 12, 1st Level<br />
Kingdom: Taking Stock<br />
3:30 to 4:50pm The Wrong Crowd Effect: Is Police Targeting Contagious? Jason Gravel Marlborough A, 2nd Level<br />
3:30 to 4:50pm Future-Proofing, Collateral Hardening and Decreasing Room for Error in Lori Sexton, Keramet Reiter, and Jennifer Grand Salon 6, 1st Level<br />
Danish Prisons<br />
Sumner<br />
3:30 to 4:50pm Crack as Proxy: Aggressive Federal Prosecutions as Institutional Marisa Omori, and Mona Lynch<br />
Grand Ballroom B, 1st Level<br />
Racism?<br />
5:00 to 6:20pm Aid-in-Dying Legal Reform: An Analysis of Three Countries John Dombrink Grand Ballroom A, 1st Level<br />
Thursday, November 17th<br />
8:00 to 9:20am Aiyana Stanley-Jones Jasmine Montgomery Grand Salon 24, 1st Level<br />
8:00 to 9:20am Discourse, Logic, and Decision-Making in Parole Eligibility Hearings Kristen Maziarka, and Emma Conner Grand Salon 18, 1st Level<br />
9:30 to 10:50am Dog Whistles No More: (R)(E)Racing Borders and the Preservation of Kasey C. Ragan, and Raymond Michalowski Grand Salon 9, 1st Level<br />
the Wages of Whiteness<br />
9:30 to 10:50am How Does the Spatial Distribution of Urban Growth Impact Crime Across Kevin Kane, and John R. Hipp<br />
Grand Ballroom C, 1st Level<br />
Cities?<br />
9:30 to 10:50am Whither Park or Withering Park? Extending <strong>Research</strong> on the Nicholas Branic, Charis Kubrin, and John R. Grand Ballroom C, 1st Level<br />
Parks-Crime Relationship<br />
Hipp<br />
9:30 to 10:50am Different than the Sum of its Parts: Examining the Unique Impacts of Charis Kubrin, John R. Hipp, and Young-An Kim Grand Ballroom C, 1st Level<br />
Immigrant Groups on Neighborhood Crime Rates<br />
9:30 to 10:50am Third Places and the Development of Social Cohesion across Seth Williams<br />
Grand Ballroom C, 1st Level<br />
Neighborhood Types<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm Unleashing the Power of Open Government Datasets in <strong>Criminology</strong> Christopher Jay Bates, and John R. Hipp Chequers, 2nd Level<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm Addressing Myths Associated with Sex Crimes and Sex Offenders Donna Vandiver, and Jeremy Braithwaite Warwick, 3rd Level<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm Discount or Tax? A Real World Conceptualization of Plea Bargaining Mona Lynch Fulton, 3rd Level<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm The Fair Fight: Contextualizing Procedural Justice in a Veterans Nicole Sherman<br />
Grand Salon 3, 1st Level<br />
Treatment Court<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm Miami Vice: Unpacking the Drug Activity and Neighborhood Violent Christopher Contreras, and John R. Hipp Chequers, 2nd Level<br />
Crime Nexus’<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm Building a Crime Prediction Model: Distinguishing between fast and slow John R. Hipp, and Christopher Jay Bates Chequers, 2nd Level<br />
dynamics over various contexts<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm Living on the Edges: Examining Crime Patterns of Street Segments on Young-An Kim, and John R. Hipp<br />
Chequers, 2nd Level<br />
the Spatial Boundaries<br />
3:30 to 4:50pm Eating Their Own: Police Responses to Excessive Use of Force Peter A. Hanink, Geoff Ward, and Anjuli C. Grand Salon 16, 1st Level<br />
Verma<br />
3:30 to 4:50pm How Rural California Counties Have Been Impacted by California’s Susan Turner<br />
Grand Salon 22, 1st Level<br />
Public Safety Realignment<br />
3:30 to 4:50pm Crook County: Racism and Injustice in America’s Largest Criminal Court Dallas Augustine Chart A, Riverside Complex<br />
5:00 to 6:20pm A Correctional Culture of Masculinity or Survival? Gendered Daniel Scott, Amy M. Magnus, and Cheryl Quarterdeck A, Riverside Complex<br />
Perspectives of Violence Involvement Among Incarcerated Youth Maxson<br />
5:00 to 6:20pm Twenty-Two Years After the Passage of VAWA: A Comparative Case Fei Yang<br />
Bridge, Riverside Complex<br />
Study on Domestic Violence<br />
6:00 to 7:00pm Spatially Diverse Policing: An Examination of Police Typologies across John R. Hipp<br />
Grand Ballroom A, 1st Level<br />
Space and Time<br />
6:00 to 7:00pm Medical Marijuana and Motor Vehicle Fatalities: A Synthetic Control Bradley Bartos, and Richard M. McCleary Grand Ballroom A, 1st Level<br />
Approach to Californias Compassionate Use Act<br />
6:00 to 7:00pm Equality and Inequality in the News: Gender differences in Print Media Kelsey Gushue, Jennifer Wong, and Jason Grand Ballroom A, 1st Level<br />
Portrayal of Homicide Perpetrators<br />
Gravel<br />
6:00 to 7:00pm Predicting Image Inclusion and Image Type in Newspaper Homicide Walter Works, Jennifer Wong, and Jason Gravel Grand Ballroom A, 1st Level<br />
Reports Using Established Crime Reporting Themes<br />
7:15 to 8:15pm Exploring the Relationship Between Airbnb and Neighborhood Crime Michelle D. Mioduszewski, and Christopher Jay Grand Ballroom A, 1st Level<br />
Bates<br />
7:15 to 8:15pm Examining Privileged Drug Use: An Analysis of Congressional Hearings<br />
on Ecstasy<br />
Sofia Laguna<br />
Grand Ballroom A, 1st Level<br />
CLS <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong> • November 2016 page 8 of 9
Time Title Authors Place<br />
Friday November 18th<br />
8:00 to 9:20am The Internalized Effects of a Criminal Record: The Impact of<br />
Volume 1• Issue 1<br />
November 2016<br />
Dallas Augustine<br />
Jackson, 3rd Level<br />
Incarceration on Job-Seeking and Desistance from Crime after Prison<br />
9:30 to 10:50am Violent Crime and Immigrant Revitalization and Influx in the South: James Bernard Pratt<br />
Grand Salon 3, 1st Level<br />
Contending with a Southern Culture of Violence and Exclusion<br />
9:30 to 10:50am A Tribute to the Scholarship and Spirit of the Late Nicole Hahn Rafter Geoff Ward Port, Riverside Complex<br />
11:00 to 12:20pm The Patterns and Prevalence of Civil Gang Injunctions in the United Alyssa M. Heckmann<br />
Grand Salon 7, 1st Level<br />
States in 2012<br />
11:00 to 12:20pm Crossing Over or Crossing Out America’s Youth? Specialized Courts,<br />
Specialized Justice, and the Realities of Dual-Involvement in the Child<br />
Welfare and Juvenile Delinquency Systems<br />
Amy M. Magnus<br />
Jefferson Ballroom, 3rd Level<br />
11:00 to 12:20pm The Social and Passive Nature of Illegal Gun Transactions in Los<br />
Angeles<br />
George Tita, Keramet Reiter, Natalie A.<br />
Pifer, Jason Gravel, Nicole Sherman, Melissa<br />
Barragan, and Kelsie Chestnut<br />
Elliott Currie<br />
Grand Salon 21, 1st Level<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm Critical <strong>Criminology</strong> in Unjust Times (Organized by Division on Critical<br />
<strong>Criminology</strong>)<br />
Chart A, Riverside Complex<br />
12:30 to 1:50pm The Crime of All Crimes: Toward a <strong>Criminology</strong> of Genocide Geoff Ward Grand Salon 15, 1st Level<br />
2:00 to 3:20pm The Deportability of the Central American Undocumented Community: Jose Alfredo Torres<br />
Grand Salon 4, 1st Level<br />
Immigrant Right Advocates Perceptions, Experiences, and Realities<br />
2:00 to 3:20pm Teaching Race From a Place of Privilege Jaimee Limmer, and Kasey C. Ragan Warwick, 3rd Level<br />
2:00 to 3:20pm Do Uniforms Matter? Experimental Evidence from the Police Officer Rylan Simpson<br />
Grand Ballroom B, 1st Level<br />
Perception Project (POPP)<br />
2:00 to 3:20pm Youth Mobilization and School Criminalization: An Ethnographic Case Analicia Mejia Mesinas<br />
Grand Salon 4, 1st Level<br />
Study of Student Activism in Los Angeles<br />
2:00 to 3:20pm Reclaiming Indigeneity Amongst Chicano Prison Inmates Anna Diaz Villela Grand Salon 4, 1st Level<br />
3:30 to 4:50pm Suicide Rates in Happy Places: Is There a Paradox? Tim Wadsworth, Philip Pendergast, and Charis Jefferson Ballroom, 3rd Level<br />
Kubrin<br />
3:30 to 4:50pm A Replication Study of Police-Involved Homicides Employing Unofficial, Matthew Renner, and Peter A. Hanink<br />
Grand Salon 3, 1st Level<br />
Crowd-Sourced Data<br />
7:00 to 9:00pm University of California, Irvine Reception<br />
River, Riverside Complex<br />
Saturday, November 19th<br />
8:00 to 9:20am Exclusionary Discipline and Neighborhood Crime Julie Gerlinger Quarterdeck C, Riverside Complex<br />
8:00 to 9:20am The Great Experiment: Realigning Criminal Justice in California and Charis Kubrin<br />
Steering, Riverside Complex<br />
Beyond<br />
8:00 to 9:20am The Great Experiment: Realigning Criminal Justice in California and Carroll Seron<br />
Steering, Riverside Complex<br />
Beyond<br />
11:00 to 12:20pm The Threatening Nature of Rap Adam Dunbar, Charis Kubrin, and Nicholas Parish, 3rd Level<br />
Scurich<br />
11:00 to 12:20pm Arts-in-Corrections: Beyond Traditional Rehabilitative Programming Emma Conner, Gabriela Gonzalez, Marina Bell,<br />
and Laura Pecenco<br />
Newberry, 3rd Level<br />
CLS <strong>Research</strong> <strong>Newsletter</strong> • November 2016 page 9 of 9