Ea Energianalyse a/s 50 pct. vindkraft i Danmark i 2025 ... - Balmorel

Indholdsfortegnelse
1 Resumé..............................................................................................................5
1.1 Indledning...........................................................................................................5
1.2 Konklusioner.......................................................................................................6
1.3 Del I: 50 pct. vind i 2025 – en scenarieanalyse...................................................7
1.4 Del II: Vilkårene for vindkraft i Danmark..........................................................11
2 Indledning........................................................................................................19
Del 1: 50 pct. vind i 2025 – en scenarieanalyse .......................................................21
3 Analyse af 50 pct. vindkraft i Danmark..............................................................21
3.1 Analysens konklusioner....................................................................................21
3.2 Metode.............................................................................................................23
3.3 Hovedforudsætninger ......................................................................................24
3.4 Referencescenariet...........................................................................................34
3.5 Den komparative analyse.................................................................................43
3.6 Samfundsøkonomiske konsekvenser ...............................................................51
3.7 Konsekvenser for udledning af NOx og SO2 ......................................................53
4 Omkostninger til elinfrastruktur .......................................................................55
4.1 Konklusioner og fokuspunkter .........................................................................55
4.2 Rammer for udbygning af den danske elinfrastruktur .....................................55
4.3 Forudsætningerne i denne rapport..................................................................59
4.4 Valg af havmølleplaceringer.............................................................................61
4.5 Økonomi...........................................................................................................65
5 Samlet vurdering af samfundsøkonomi.............................................................69
Del 2: Vilkårene for vindkraft i Danmark ................................................................71
6 Rammer for vindkraftudbygning.......................................................................71
6.1 De planlægningsmæssige vilkår .......................................................................72
6.2 Forskning og udvikling......................................................................................73
6.3 De økonomiske vilkår .......................................................................................74
6.4 Investeringer i vindkraft ...................................................................................79
6.5 Incitamenter til investeringer...........................................................................82
7 Vindkraften i elmarkedet..................................................................................83
7.1 Elmarkedet .......................................................................................................83
7.2 Balancering af vindkraft ...................................................................................85
7.3 Vindkraften og elprisen ....................................................................................86
8 Vindkraft og forsyningssikkerhed......................................................................89
8.1 Systemtilstrækkelighed ....................................................................................89
8.2 Systemsikkerhed...............................................................................................95
8.3 Regulérkraft og reserver...................................................................................96
8.4 Energi‐ og brændselsforsyningssikkerhed......................................................102
8.5 Er eloverløb et problem?................................................................................104
50 pct. vindkraft i Danmark i 2025 – en teknisk‐økonomisk analyse, juni 2007 3