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4/2013
Concentration and Shrinking Processes in German Regions and
Cities up to 2030
Since the turn of the millennium the populations of large German cities and metropolitan
areas have been growing again. This applies even to eastern Germany, where the overall
population trend has been consistently downward. With a steep rise in immigration from
eastern central Europe and the effects of the economic crisis in southern Europe, the
growth trend in German cities can be expected to continue. The increasing inclination of
school-leavers to attend university is also promoting urbanisation. On the other hand, the
decline in population in many parts of the country will accelerate. The article presents development
scenarios up to the year 2030 for Germany’s seven largest metropolitan regions
and cities with more than half a million inhabitants. In addition, the consequences of the
increasing discrepancy between the dynamic urban centres and a periphery characterised
by a declining and ageing population are discussed.
IW-Trends – Vierteljahresschrift zur empirischen Wirtschaftsforschung
aus dem Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, 40. Jahrgang, Heft 4/2013; ISSN 0941-6838 (Printversion);
ISSN 1864-810X (Onlineversion). Rechte für den Nachdruck oder die elektronische Verwertung erhalten Sie
über lizenzen@iwkoeln.de, die erforderlichen Rechte für elektronische Pressespiegel unter
www.pressemonitor.de © 2013, IW Medien GmbH, Köln; DOI: 10.2373/1864-810X.13-04-06
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