Turks and Caicos Islands

Caribbean Regional Headquarters 

Hastings House 

Balmoral Gap 

Christ Church 

Barbados 

West Indies 

Tel: +1 246 426 2042 

admin@caribsave.org ~ www.caribsave.org 

Protecting and enhancing the livelihoods, environments and economies of the Caribbean Basin 

UK Office 

Almond House 

Betteshanger Business Park 

Deal 

Kent CT14 0LX 

United Kingdom 

Tel: +44 (0) 1304 619 929 

THE CARIBSAVE CLIMATE CHANGE RISK 

ATLAS (CCCRA) 

Climate Change Risk Profile for 

The Turks and Caicos Islands 

Prepared by The CARIBSAVE Partnership with funding from 

UKaid from the Department for International Development (DFID) and the 

Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID) 

March 2012 

Caribbean Climate Change & Livelihoods: A sectoral approach to vulnerability and resilience 

Water, Energy, Biodiversity, Tourism, Agriculture, Human Health, Infrastructure and Settlement, Gender, Comprehensive Disaster Management 

A Not-For-Profit Company

TABLE OF CONTENTS 

LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................................... V 

LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................................................VII 

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS........................................................................................................................... X 

PROJECT BACKGROUND AND APPROACH ............................................................................................... XI 

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ............................................................................................. XIV 

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ......................................................................................................................... XVII 

1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT ................................................................................................. 1 

1.1. Climate Change Impacts on Tourism ............................................................................................ 3 

2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES ......................................................................................................... 5 

2.1. Geography and climate ................................................................................................................. 5 

2.2. Socio-economic profile.................................................................................................................. 6 

2.3. Importance of tourism to the national economy........................................................................ 11 

3. CLIMATE MODELLING ................................................................................................................. 14 

3.1. Introduction to Climate Modelling Results ................................................................................. 14 

3.2. Temperature ............................................................................................................................... 15 

3.3. Precipitation ................................................................................................................................ 16 

3.4. Wind Speed ................................................................................................................................. 19 

3.5. Relative Humidity ........................................................................................................................ 20 

3.6. Sunshine Hours ........................................................................................................................... 22 

3.7. Sea Surface Temperatures .......................................................................................................... 23 

3.8. Temperature Extremes ............................................................................................................... 24 

3.9. Rainfall Extremes ......................................................................................................................... 26 

3.10. Hurricanes and Tropical Storms .................................................................................................. 28 

3.11. Sea Level Rise .............................................................................................................................. 30 

3.12. Storm Surge ................................................................................................................................. 31 

4. VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS PROFILE FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS .............................. 32 

4.1. Water Quality and Availability .................................................................................................... 32 

4.1.1. Background .....................................................................................................................32 

4.1.2. Vulnerability of Water Availability and Quality Sector to Climate Change ....................35 

4.2. Energy Supply and Distribution ................................................................................................... 39 

4.2.1. Background .....................................................................................................................39 

4.2.2. Vulnerability of the Energy Sector to Climate Change ...................................................48 

4.3. Agriculture and Food Security ..................................................................................................... 57 

4.3.1. Background .....................................................................................................................57 

4.3.2. The Importance of Agriculture to National Development ..............................................57 

4.3.3. An Analysis of the Agricultural Sector in the Turks & Caicos Islands ..............................57 

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4.3.4. Women and Youth in TCI Agriculture .............................................................................58 

4.3.5. Climate Change Related Issues and Agricultural Vulnerability in the Turks & 

Caicos Islands ..........................................................................................................58 

4.3.6. Vulnerability Enhancing Factors: Agriculture, Land Use and Soil Degradation in 

the Turks & Caicos Islands .......................................................................................58 

4.3.7. Social Vulnerability of Agricultural Communities in the Turks & Caicos Islands ............58 

4.3.8. Economic Vulnerability: Climate Change & Agricultural Outputs in the Turks & 

Caicos Islands ..........................................................................................................59 

4.4. Human Health ............................................................................................................................. 60 

4.4.1. Background .....................................................................................................................60 

4.4.2. Direct Impacts .................................................................................................................61 

4.4.3. Indirect Impacts ..............................................................................................................62 

4.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries ...................................................................... 67 

4.5.1. Background .....................................................................................................................67 

4.5.2. Vulnerability of Biodiversity and Fisheries to Climate Change .......................................75 

4.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements ................ 80 

4.6.1. Background .....................................................................................................................80 

4.6.2. Vulnerability of Infrastructure and Settlements to Climate Change ..............................81 

4.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management .......................................................................... 88 

4.7.1. History of Disaster Management Globally ......................................................................88 

4.7.2. Natural Hazards in the Caribbean and the Turks and Caicos Islands..............................89 

4.7.3. Vulnerability of the tourism sector to natural hazards ..................................................93 

4.8. Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development ..................................................... 94 

4.8.1. Background .....................................................................................................................94 

4.8.2. Vulnerability of Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development to Climate 

Change .....................................................................................................................95 

4.8.3. Case Study: The Lower Bight Community, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos 

Islands ......................................................................................................................98 

5. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS........................................... 105 

5.1. Water Quality and Availability .................................................................................................. 106 

5.1.1. Policy .............................................................................................................................106 

5.1.2. Management .................................................................................................................108 

5.1.3. Technology ....................................................................................................................109 

5.2. Energy Supply and Distribution ................................................................................................. 110 

5.2.1. Policy .............................................................................................................................110 

5.2.2. Management .................................................................................................................112 

5.2.3. Technology ....................................................................................................................115 

5.2.4. Summary .......................................................................................................................118 

5.3. Agriculture and Food Security ................................................................................................... 120 

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5.3.1. Policy .............................................................................................................................120 

5.3.2. Technology ....................................................................................................................120 

5.3.3. Farmers’ Adaptation - Initiatives and Actions ..............................................................120 

5.4. Human Health ........................................................................................................................... 121 

5.4.1. Policy .............................................................................................................................121 

5.4.2. Management .................................................................................................................123 

5.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries .................................................................... 126 

5.5.1. Policy .............................................................................................................................126 

5.5.2. Management .................................................................................................................127 

5.5.3. Technology ....................................................................................................................129 

5.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements .............. 130 

5.6.1. Technology – Hard Engineering ....................................................................................132 

5.6.2. Technology – Soft Engineering .....................................................................................133 

5.6.3. Policy .............................................................................................................................133 

5.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management ........................................................................ 135 

5.7.1. Management of Natural Hazards and Disasters ...........................................................135 

5.7.2. Management of Disasters in the Turks and Caicos Islands ...........................................138 

5.7.3. Technology ....................................................................................................................139 

5.7.4. Policy .............................................................................................................................140 

5.8. Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development ................................................... 142 

5.8.1. Demographic Profile of Respondents ...........................................................................142 

5.8.2. Household Headship .....................................................................................................144 

5.8.3. Education and Livelihoods ............................................................................................145 

5.8.4. Food Security ................................................................................................................148 

5.8.5. Financial Security and Social Protection .......................................................................149 

5.8.6. Asset Base .....................................................................................................................153 

5.8.7. Power and Decision Making .........................................................................................155 

5.8.8. Social Networks and Social Capital ...............................................................................156 

5.8.9. Use of Natural Resources ..............................................................................................156 

5.8.10. Knowledge, Exposure and Experience of Climate Related Events................................160 

5.8.11. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies...........................................................................164 

6. RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES AND INITIAL ACTION PLAN ........................................................... 166 

6.1. Cross-Cutting Actions ................................................................................................................ 166 

6.1.1. Data Collection, Monitoring and Evaluation .................................................................166 

6.1.2. Mainstreaming Climate Change in Policy, Planning and Practice.................................167 

6.1.3. Information Sharing, Communication and Networking ................................................169 

6.1.4. Climate Change Education and Awareness ..................................................................170 


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6.5. Human Health ........................................................................................................................... 173 





7. CONCLUSION ............................................................................................................................ 181 

7.1. Climate Modelling ..................................................................................................................... 181 




7.5. Human Health ........................................................................................................................... 183 





REFERENCES ....................................................................................................................................... 187 

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LIST OF FIGURES 

Figure 2.2.1: Percentage contribution to GDP .................................................................................................. 8 

Figure 4.2.1: Global CO2 emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth ........................ 40 

Figure 4.2.2: Per capita emissions of CO2 in selected countries in the Caribbean, 2005 ................................ 41 

Figure 4.2.3: Evolution of electricity consumption by customer type for PPC................................................ 45 

Figure 4.2.4: Evolution of energy consumption for TCU, 2007-2010 .............................................................. 45 

Figure 4.2.5: Crude oil prices 1869-2009 ......................................................................................................... 49 

Figure 4.2.6: Fuel costs as part of a worldwide operating cost ....................................................................... 51 

Figure 4.2.7: Vulnerability of selected islands, measured as eco-efficiency and revenue share .................... 53 

Figure 4.5.1: Vegetation of North and Middle Caicos Islands; location of the most extensive 

pine yards of TCI ....................................................................................................................... 70 

Figure 4.5.2: Lacustrine karst habitat, West Caicos ........................................................................................ 72 

Figure 4.5.3: Location of coral reefs of the Turks and Caicos Islands.............................................................. 73 

Figure 4.5.4: Unusual amount of Sargassum seaweed washed up on a Caribbean beach, August 

2011 .......................................................................................................................................... 79 

Figure 4.6.1: Grand Turk, The Turks and Caicos Islands - Overview Map ....................................................... 81 

Figure 4.6.2: Erosion at Cedar Grove Beach, The Turks and Caicos Islands .................................................... 82 

Figure 4.6.3: Jodi Johnson (right), Environmental Officer for the Department of Environment 

and Coastal Resources with Ryan Sim (left), University of Waterloo Canada, using 

High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with an RTK GPS. ................................................... 84 

Figure 4.6.4: Total beach and land loss from SLR, Historic Downtown Cockburn Town, Grand 

Turk Island ................................................................................................................................ 85 

Figure 4.6.5: Total beach and land loss from SLR, Grand Turk Cruise Centre, Grand Turk Island .................. 86 

Figure 4.6.6: Total beach and land loss from SLR, Western Shore, Grand Turk Island ................................... 87 

Figure 4.7.1: Storm surge predictions for a Category 5 Hurricane south of TCI ............................................. 90 

Figure 4.7.2: Grand Turk - Inundation Hazard Map ........................................................................................ 91 

Figure 4.7.3: Damaged causeway connecting Middle and North Caicos ........................................................ 92 

Figure 4.7.4: Hurricane Ike damages in Grand Turk ........................................................................................ 93 

Figure 4.8.1: The impacts of climate change on poverty ................................................................................ 96 

Figure 5.1.1: GDP by the water sector (current economic prices) 2000-2009 .............................................. 106 

Figure 5.2.1: Eco-efficiencies of different source markets, Amsterdam ....................................................... 114 

Figure 5.2.2: Viability of energy efficiency technologies in Turks and Caicos ............................................... 117 

Figure 5.6.1: Seawall and groynes, Historic Cockburn Town, Grand Turk .................................................... 132 

Figure 5.7.1: Relationship of the Disaster Management System and Society .............................................. 135 

Figure 5.8.1: Age of respondents .................................................................................................................. 143 

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Figure 5.8.2: Relationship status of respondents .......................................................................................... 144 

Figure 5.8.3: Sample distribution by average monthly earnings ................................................................... 147 

Figure 5.8.4: Financial security: Job loss or natural disaster ......................................................................... 151 

Figure 5.8.5: Perception of risk for climate related events ........................................................................... 163 

Figure 5.8.6: Support during climate related events ..................................................................................... 164 

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LIST OF TABLES 

Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product for the Turks & Caicos Islands 2000-2010 .............................................. 7 

Table 2.2.2: Contribution to GDP by sector (US $ millions, constant 2000 prices) ........................................... 8 

Table 2.2.3: Employed population by industry, 2007 ...................................................................................... 10 

Table 2.3.1: Visitor arrivals to Turks & Caicos Islands 2000-2010 ................................................................... 12 

Table 3.1.1: Earliest and latest years respectively at which the threshold temperatures are 

exceeded in the 41 projections* .............................................................................................. 15 

Table 3.2.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Turks and Caicos Islands ................ 16 

Table 3.2.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Turks and Caicos Islands under the A2 

scenario .................................................................................................................................... 16 

Table 3.3.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for Turks and Caicos Islands ................ 17 

Table 3.3.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Turks and Caicos under the A2 scenario........................... 18 

Table 3.3.3: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for Turks and Caicos 

Islands ....................................................................................................................................... 18 

Table 3.3.4: GCM and RCM projected changes in Turks and Caicos under the A2 scenario........................... 19 

Table 3.4.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in wind speed for Turks and Caicos Islands. ................. 20 


scenario .................................................................................................................................... 20 

Table 3.5.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in relative humidity for Turks and Caicos 



scenario .................................................................................................................................... 22 

Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sunshine hours for Turks and Caicos 



scenario .................................................................................................................................... 23 

Table 3.7.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for Turks and 

Caicos Islands............................................................................................................................ 24 

Table 3.8.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature extremes for Turks and 

Caicos Islands............................................................................................................................ 25 

Table 3.9.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in rainfall extremes for Turks and Caicos 


Table 3.10.1: Changes in Near-storm rainfall and wind intensity associated with Tropical storms 

in under global warming scenarios .......................................................................................... 30 

Table 3.11.1: Sea level rise rates at observation stations surrounding the Caribbean Basin ......................... 30 

Table 3.11.2: Projected increases in sea level rise from the IPCC AR4 ........................................................... 31 

Table 4.1.1: Water tariff for domestic and non-domestic users in the Turks and Caicos Islands ................... 33 

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Table 4.1.2: Availability of water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands .................................................. 35 

Table 4.1.3: Distribution of water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands ....................................................... 35 

Table 4.2.1: Electricity sales for PPC by sector, 2009 ...................................................................................... 42 

Table 4.2.2: Electricity sales for TCU by sector, 2009 ...................................................................................... 42 

Table 4.2.3: Assessment of CO2 emissions from tourism in The Turks and Caicos Islands, data 

for various years ....................................................................................................................... 43 

Table 4.2.4: Growth trends in energy consumption in Turks and Caicos by sector, 2002-2007 ..................... 44 

Table 4.2.5: Growth trends in energy consumption in Turks and Caicos by island, 2002-2007 ..................... 44 

Table 4.2.6: UK air passenger duty as of November 1, 2009 .......................................................................... 52 

Table 4.4.1: Selected statistics relevant to the health sector of the Turks and Caicos Islands ....................... 61 

Table 4.4.2: Fever and Respiratory Systems (acute respiratory infections) under and over 5 

years between 2006 -2009 ....................................................................................................... 64 

Table 4.4.3: Reported cases of gastroenteritis in the Turks and Caicos Islands between 2000 

and 2009 ................................................................................................................................... 65 

Table 4.5.1: Turks and Caicos Islands Vegetation Subclass Classification ....................................................... 69 

Table 4.5.2: Total damage and loss in the fisheries subsector post Tropical Storm Hannah and 

Hurricane Ike ............................................................................................................................ 78 

Table 4.6.1: Impacts associated with 1 m and 2 m SLR and 50m and 100m beach erosion in the 

Turks and Caicos Islands ........................................................................................................... 83 

Table 4.6.2: Beach area losses at three beach locations in the Turks and Caicos Islands ............................... 87 

Table 4.7.1: Types of hazards in the Caribbean Basin ..................................................................................... 89 

Table 4.7.2: Distribution of impacts from Hanna and Ike by productive subsector (US $) ............................. 93 

Table 4.8.1: Direct and indirect risks of climate change and their potential effect on women ...................... 97 

Table 5.1.1: TCI water sector as a proportion of GDP, Current Economic Prices .......................................... 106 

Table 5.2.1: Average weighted emissions per tourist by country and main market, 2004 .......................... 113 

Table 5.2.2: Arrivals to emissions ratios ........................................................................................................ 113 

Table 5.2.3: Jamaican case studies for resource savings............................................................................... 116 

Table 5.4.1: Summary effects on the health sector from Hurricane Ike and Storm Hanna in the 

Turks and Caicos Islands (US $) .............................................................................................. 123 

Table 5.5.1: Biodiversity: Six principles for climate change adaptation ........................................................ 126 

Table 5.6.1: Summary of adaptation policies to reduce the vulnerability of Turks and Caicos to 

SLR and SLR-induced beach erosion ....................................................................................... 131 

Table 5.7.1: Enhanced Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme Framework 2007- 

2012 ........................................................................................................................................ 137 

Table 5.8.1: Length of residency in community ............................................................................................ 142 

Table 5.8.2: Age distribution of sample......................................................................................................... 142 

Table 5.8.3: Relationship status of respondents ........................................................................................... 143 

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Table 5.8.4: Perception of headship of household........................................................................................ 144 

Table 5.8.5: Household headship .................................................................................................................. 144 

Table 5.8.6: Family size by sex of head of household ................................................................................... 145 

Table 5.8.7: Sample distribution by education and training ......................................................................... 146 

Table 5.8.8: Sample Distribution by Main Income Earning Responsibility .................................................... 146 

Table 5.8.9: Sample Distribution by Involvement in Income-Generating Activities ..................................... 146 

Table 5.8.10: Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Tourism Sector ................................................ 147 

Table 5.8.11: Labour market participation: Involvement in tourism sectors ................................................ 148 

Table 5.8.12: Labour market participation: Involvement in non-tourism sectors ........................................ 148 

Table 5.8.13: Source of food supply .............................................................................................................. 149 

Table 5.8.14: Adequacy of food supply ......................................................................................................... 149 

Table 5.8.15: Distribution by financial responsibility for house (receive support) ....................................... 149 

Table 5.8.16: Distribution by financial responsibility for house (give support) ............................................ 150 

Table 5.8.17: Distribution by access to credit distribution............................................................................ 150 

Table 5.8.18: Sample distribution by financial security: Job loss .................................................................. 151 

Table 5.8.19: Sample distribution by financial security: natural disaster ..................................................... 152 

Table 5.8.20: Sample Distribution by Social Protection Provisions ............................................................... 153 

Table 5.8.21: Sample distribution by ownership of assets: Capital assets .................................................... 153 

Table 5.8.22: Sample distribution by ownership of assets: Appliances/Electronics ..................................... 154 

Table 5.8.23: Sample distribution by ownership of assets: Transportation .................................................. 154 

Table 5.8.24: Sample distribution by ownership of assets: House material ................................................. 155 

Table 5.8.25: Sample distribution by ownership of assets: Access to sanitation conveniences ................... 155 

Table 5.8.26: Power and decision making ..................................................................................................... 155 

Table 5.8.27: Power and decision making: Intra household ......................................................................... 156 

Table 5.8.28: Social networks: Community involvement .............................................................................. 156 

Table 5.8.29: Social networks: Support systems ........................................................................................... 156 

Table 5.8.30: Use and importance of natural resources ............................................................................... 158 

Table 5.8.31: Use and importance of natural resources, by sex of respondent ........................................... 159 

Table 5.8.32: Involvement in agriculture: Access to water ........................................................................... 160 

Table 5.8.33: Knowledge of climate related events ...................................................................................... 160 

Table 5.8.34: Knowledge of appropriate response to climate related events .............................................. 161 

Table 5.8.35: Perceived level of risk of climate related events: Household ................................................. 162 

Table 5.8.36: Perceived level of risk of climate related events: Community ................................................ 163 

Table 5.8.37: Household Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies ................................................................... 165 

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS 

The CARIBSAVE Partnership wishes to thank all the people across the Turks & Caicos Islands and in the 

Caribbean who have contributed to this National Risk Profile and to the Risk Atlas as a whole. There have 

been a multitude of people who have provided their time, assistance, information and resources to making 

the Risk Atlas effective and successful, so many people that it makes it impossible to mention all of them 

here on this page. We would, therefore, like to thank some of the key people and organisations here that 

have made the Risk Atlas and this National Profile possible. The CARIBSAVE Partnership wishes to thank 

the Turks and Caicos Tourist Board for its support and assistance, in particular Mr. Ralph Higgs, Director of 

Tourism; and Mr. Brian Been, Senior Product Development Officer; as well as Mr. Wesley Clerveaux, 

Director of the Department of Environment and Coastal Resources (DECR). 

We wish to express great thanks the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, the Caribbean Tourism 

Organisation and the Association of Caribbean States for their collaboration and support. 

Additionally, we wish to thank the following institutions: 

The Climate Studies Group, Department of Physics, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus 

The Meteorological Institute of the Republic of Cuba (INSMET) 

Anton de Kom University of Suriname 

The University of Waterloo 

The Institute for Gender and Development Studies, University of the West Indies, Mona Campus 

The Health Research Resource Unit, Faculty of Medical Science, University of the West Indies, 

Mona Campus 

The Department for Environment and Coastal Resources (DECR) 

The Department for Disaster Management and Emergencies (DDME) 

The Red Cross Society 

The CARIBSAVE Partnership would also like to extend its thanks to the Oxford University Centre for the 

Environment. Finally, last and by no means least, many thanks to the vision and commitment of the UK 

Department for International Development (DFID) and the Australian Agency for International 

Development (AusAID) for funding the CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas. 

This publication is to be cited as follows: 

Simpson, M. C., Clarke, J. F., Scott, D. J., New, M., Karmalkar, A., Day, O. J., Taylor, M., Gossling, S., Wilson, 

M., Chadee, D., Stager, H., Waithe, R., Stewart, A., Georges, J., Hutchinson, N., Fields, N., Sim, R., Rutty, M., 

Matthews, L., and Charles, S. (2012). CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas (CCCRA) - Turks and Caicos 

Islands. DFID, AusAID and The CARIBSAVE Partnership, Barbados, West Indies. 

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PROJECT BACKGROUND AND APPROACH 

Contribution to climate change knowledge and understanding 

Climate change is a serious and substantial threat to the economies of Caribbean nations, the livelihoods of 

communities and the environments and infrastructure across the region. The CARIBSAVE Climate Change 

Risk Atlas (CCCRA) Phase I, funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID/UKaid) and 

the Australian Agency for International Development (AusAID), was conducted from 2009 – 2011 and 

successfully used evidence-based, inter-sectoral approaches to examine climate change risks, 

vulnerabilities and adaptive capacities; and develop pragmatic response strategies to reduce vulnerability 

and enhance resilience in 15 countries across the Caribbean (Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, The Bahamas, 

Barbados, Belize, Dominica, The Dominican Republic, Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts, St. 

Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname and the Turks & Caicos Islands). 

The primary basis of the CCCRA work is the detailed climate modelling projections done for each country 

under three scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Climate models have demonstrable skill in reproducing the large 

scale characteristics of the global climate dynamics; and a combination of multiple Global Climate Model 

(GCM) and downscaled Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections was used in the investigation of climatic 

changes for all 15 countries. RCMs simulate the climate at a finer spatial scale over a small area, like a 

country, acting to ‘downscale’ the GCM projections and provide a better physical representation of the 

local climate of that area. As such, changes in the dynamic climate processes at a national or community 

scale can be projected. 

SRES storylines and scenario families used for calculating future greenhouse gas and other pollutant emissions 

Storyline and Description 

scenario family 

A2 A very heterogeneous world; self reliance; preservation of local identities; continuously 

increasing global population; economic growth is regionally oriented and per capita 

economic growth and technological change are slower than in other storylines. 

A1B The A1 storyline and scenario family describes a future world of very rapid economic 

growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the 

rapid introduction of new and more efficient technologies. The three A1 groups are 

distinguished by their technological emphasis. A1B is balanced across all sources - not 

relying too heavily on one particular energy source, on the assumption that similar 

improvement rates apply to all energy supply and end use technologies. 

B1 A convergent world with the same global population that peaks in mid-century and 

declines thereafter, as in the A1 storyline, but with rapid changes in economic 

structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material 

intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The 

emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, 

including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives. 

(Source: Adapted from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, 2000) 

The CCCRA provides robust and meaningful new work in the key sectors and focal areas of: Community 

Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development; Agriculture and Food security; Energy; Water Quality and 

Availability; Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements; 

Comprehensive Disaster Management; Human Health; and Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and 

Fisheries. This work was conducted through the lens of the tourism sector; the most significant socioeconomic 

sector to the livelihoods, national economies and environments of the Caribbean and its' people. 

xi

The field work components of the research and CARIBSAVE’s commitment to institutional strengthening in 

the Caribbean have helped to build capacity in a wide selection of ministries, academic institutions, 

communities and other stakeholders in the areas of: climate modelling, gender and climate change, coastal 

management methods and community resilience. Having been completed for 15 countries in the 

Caribbean Basin, this work allows for inter-regional and cross-regional comparisons leading to lesson 

learning and skills transfer. 

A further very important aspect of the CCCRA is the democratisation of climate change science. This was 

conducted through targeted awareness, tools (e.g. data visualisation, GIS imagery, animated projections 

and short films), and participatory approaches (workshops and vulnerability mapping) to improve 

stakeholder knowledge and understanding of what climate change means for them. Three short films, in 

high-resolution format of broadcast quality, are some of the key outputs. These films are part of the 

Partnerships for Resilience series and include: ‘Climate Change and Tourism’; ‘Caribbean Fish Sanctuaries’; 

and ‘Living Shorelines’. They are available at www.youtube.com/Caribsave. 

Project approach to enhancing resilience and building capacity to respond to climate change 

across the Caribbean 

Processes and outputs from the CCCRA bridge the gap between the public and private sectors and 

communities; and their efforts to address both the physical and socio-economic impacts of climate change, 

allowing them to better determine how current practices (which in fact are not isolated in one sector 

alone) and capacities must be enhanced. The stages of the CCCRA country profile protocol (see Flow Chart 

on following page) are as follows: a) Climate Modelling and Data Analysis (including analysis of key ‘Tier 1’ 

climate variables linking the climate modelling to physical impacts and vulnerabilities) b) Physical Impacts 

and Vulnerability Assessment c) Tourism and Related Sector Vulnerability Assessments (including 

examination of the sectors of water, energy, agriculture, biodiversity, health, infrastructure and settlement, 

and comprehensive disaster management) d) Development of Vulnerability Profile with stakeholders taking 

account of socio-economic, livelihood and gender impacts (including evaluation of ‘Tier 2’ linking variables 

and indicators such as coastal inundation) e) Adaptive Capacity Assessment and Profiling f) Development of 

Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies and Policy Recommendations (action planning). The final stages 

depicted in the flow chart focusing on the implementation of policies and strategies at 

ministerial/government level and the implementation of actions at community level, using a communitybased 

adaptation approach, are proposed to be implemented as part of the forthcoming CCCRA process as 

projects to be funded by other donors post the country profile stage. 

The work of the CCCRA is consistent with the needs of Caribbean Small Island and Coastal Developing 

States identified in the document, “Climate Change and the Caribbean: A Regional Framework for 

Development Resilient to Climate Change (2009-2015)”, published by the Caribbean Community Climate 

Change Centre (CCCCC); and supports each of the key strategies outlined in the framework’s Regional 

Implementation Plan. 

xii

CCCRA Profiling Flow Chart 

The CCCRA continues to provide assistance to the governments, communities and the private sector of the 

Caribbean at the local destination level and at national level through its primary outputs for each of the 15 

participating countries: National Climate Change Risk Profiles; Summary Documents; and high-resolution 

maps showing sea level rise and storm surge projections under various scenarios for vulnerable coastal 

areas. It is anticipated that this approach will be replicated in other destinations and countries across the 

Caribbean Basin. 

The CCCRA explored recent and future changes in climate in each of the 15 countries using a combination 

of observations and climate model projections. Despite the limitations that exist with regards to climate 

modelling and the attribution of present conditions to climate change, this information provides very useful 

indications of the changes in the characteristics of climate and impacts on socio-economic sectors. 

Consequently, decision makers should adopt a precautionary approach and ensure that measures are taken 

to increase the resilience of economies, businesses and communities to climate-related hazards. 

This report was created through an extensive desk research, participatory workshops, fieldwork, surveys 

and analyses with a wide range of public and private sector, and local stakeholders over 18 months. 

xiii

LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS 

AHC ------------------ Acute Haemorrhagic Conjunctivitis 

AIC -------------------- Aviation-induced clouds 

AOSIS ---------------- Alliance of Small Island States 

APD ------------------- Air Passenger Duty 

AR4 ------------------- Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC) 

ARI -------------------- Acute Respiratory Infections 

ASTER ---------------- Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer 

BAU ------------------ Business as Usual 

CAD ------------------- Caribbean Application Document 

CARDI ---------------- Caribbean Agricultural Research and Development Institute 

CAREC --------------- Caribbean Epidemiology Centre 

CARICOM ----------- Caribbean Community 

CBA ------------------- Community Based Adaptation 

CCCCC---------------- Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre 

CCCRA --------------- CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas 

CCRIF ----------------- Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility 

CDB ------------------- Caribbean Development Bank 

CDC ------------------- Centre for Disease Control and Prevention 

CDEMA -------------- Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency 

CDM ------------------ Clean Development Mechanism (in the context of Energy/Emissions) 

CDM ------------------ Comprehensive Disaster Management 

CEHI ------------------ Caribbean Environmental Health Institute 

CEP ------------------- Caribbean Environment Programme 

CFP ------------------- Ciguatera Fish Poisoning 

CITES ----------------- Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species 

COP ------------------- Conference of Parties 

CPA ------------------- Country Poverty Assessment 

CPACC --------------- Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change 

CRFM ---------------- Caribbean Regional Fisheries Mechanism 

CRI -------------------- Climate Risk Index 

CRID ------------------ Regional Disaster Center – Latin America and the Caribbean 

CSGM ---------------- Climate Studies Group Mona 

CTO ------------------- Caribbean Tourism Organization 

CUBiC ---------------- Caribbean Uniform Building Code 

DANA ---------------- Damage and Needs Assessment 

DDME ---------------- Department for Disaster Management and Emergencies, Turks and Caicos Islands 

DECR ----------------- Department of Environmental and Coastal Resources 

DEFRA --------------- United Kingdom Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs 

DEPS ----------------- Department for Economic Planning and Statistics, Turks and Caicos Islands 

DF --------------------- Dengue Fever 

DFID ------------------ Department for International Development 

DHF ------------------- Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever 

DJF -------------------- Seasonal period of December, January, February 

DMC ------------------ Disaster Management Committee 

DRM ------------------ Disaster Risk Management 

DRR ------------------- Disaster Risk Reduction 

ECE ------------------- Energy Conservation and Efficiency 

ECLAC ---------------- United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean 

EIA -------------------- Environmental Impact Assessment 

EM-DAT ------------- The International Disaster Database 

ENSO ----------------- El Niño Southern Oscillation 

xiv

ETS-------------------- Emission Trading Scheme 

EU--------------------- European Union 

EU ETS --------------- European Union Emissions Trading System 

EWS ------------------ Early Warning System 

FAO ------------------- Food and Agriculture Organization 

GCM ------------------ Global Circulation Model 

GDEM ---------------- Global Digital Elevation Model 

GCP ------------------- Ground Control Points 

GDP ------------------ Gross Domestic Product 

GGCA ---------------- Global Gender and Climate Alliance 

GHG ------------------ Green House Gas (-es) 

GIS -------------------- Geographic Information System 

GPS ------------------- Global Positioning System(s) 

HAB ------------------ Harmful Algal Blooms 

HFA ------------------- Hyogo Framework for Action 

HIV/AIDS ------------ human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome 

IA---------------------- Institutional Assessment 

IATA ------------------ International Air Transport Association 

IAS -------------------- Invasive Alien Species 

ICC -------------------- International Code Council 

ICZM ----------------- Integrated Coastal Zone Management 

IDB -------------------- Inter-American Development Bank 

IEA -------------------- International Energy Agency 

IGA ------------------- Independent Grocers Association 

INSMET -------------- Meteorological Institute of the Republic of Cuba 

IPCC ------------------ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

ISDR ------------------ International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 

ISWMS --------------- Integrated Sustainable Waste Management System 

ITCZ------------------- Inter-tropical Convergence Zone 

IVM ------------------- Integrated Vector Management 

IUCN ----------------- International Union for the Conservation of Nature 

IWCM ---------------- Integrated Water Cycle Management 

MDGs ---------------- Millennium Development Goals 

MEA ------------------ Multi-later Environmental Agreements 

MOH ----------------- Ministry of Health, Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands 

MPA ------------------ Marine Protected Area 

MCS ------------------ Marine Conservation Society, Turks and Caicos Islands 

NASA ----------------- National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

NSEDF --------------- National Socio-economic Development Framework (Turks and Caicos Islands) 

OECD ----------------- Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development 

OTEP ----------------- United Kingdom Overseas Territories Environment Programme 

PAHO ---------------- Pan-American Health Organization 

PPC ------------------- Provo Power Company Ltd. 

PV --------------------- photovoltaic 

RCM ------------------ Regional Circulation Model 

RTK ------------------- Real Time Kinematic (GPS system) 

RNAT ----------------- Regional Needs Assessment Team 

SIDS ------------------ Small Island Developing States 

SLR -------------------- Sea Level Rise 

SST -------------------- Sea Surface Temperature 

TCI -------------------- Turks and Caicos Islands 

TCU ------------------- Turks & Caicos Utilities Ltd. 

TIN ------------------- Triangular Irregular Network 

UK -------------------- United Kingdom 

UKERC --------------- United Kingdom Energy Research Centre 

xv

UKOT ----------------- United Kingdom Overseas Territory (-ies) 

UN-OHRLLS --------- United Nations Office of the High Representative for the Least Developed 

Countries, Landlocked Developing Countries and Small Island Developing States 

UNDP ---------------- United Nations Development Programme 

UNEP ----------------- United Nations Environment Programme 

UNESCO ------------- United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization 

UNFCCC ------------- United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change 

UNFPA --------------- United Nations Population Fund 

UNWTO ------------- United Nations World Tourism Organisation 

US --------------------- United States of America 

WAAS ---------------- Wide Area Augmentation System 

WHO ----------------- World Health Organization 

WHO-AIMS --------- World Health Organization – Assessment Instrument for Mental Health Systems 

WWTS --------------- Wastewater Wetland Treatment Systems 

xvi

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 

A practical evidence-based approach to 

building resilience and capacity to 

address the challenges of climate 

change in the Caribbean 

Climate change is a serious and substantial threat to 

the economies of Caribbean nations, the livelihoods 

of communities and the environments and 

infrastructure across the region. The CARIBSAVE 

Climate Change Risk Atlas (CCCRA) Phase I, funded 

by the UK Department for International 

Development (DFID/UKaid) and the Australian 

Agency for International Development (AusAID), was 

conducted from 2009 – 2011 and successfully used 

evidence-based, inter-sectoral approaches to 

examine climate change risks, vulnerabilities and 

adaptive capacities; and develop pragmatic response 

strategies to reduce vulnerability and enhance 

resilience in 15 countries across the Caribbean 

(Anguilla, Antigua & Barbuda, The Bahamas, 

Barbados, Belize, Dominica, The Dominican Republic, 

Grenada, Jamaica, Nevis, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts, St. 

Vincent & the Grenadines, Suriname and the Turks & 

Caicos Islands). 

The CCCRA provides robust and meaningful new 

work in the key sectors and focal areas of: 

Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and 

Development; Agriculture and Food security; Energy; 

Water Quality and Availability; Sea Level Rise and 

Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and 

Settlements; Comprehensive Disaster Management; 

Human Health; and Marine and Terrestrial 

Biodiversity and Fisheries. This work was conducted 

through the lens of the tourism sector; the most 

significant socio-economic sector to the livelihoods, 

national economies and environments of the 

Caribbean and its people. 

xvii 

SELECTED POLICY POINTS 

Regional Climate Models, downscaled to 

national level in the Risk Atlas, have provided 

projections for Caribbean SIDS and coastal 

states with enough confidence to support 

decision-making for immediate adaptive action. 

Planned adaptation must be an absolute 

priority. New science and observations should 

be incorporated into existing sustainable 

development efforts. 

Economic investment and livelihoods, 

particularly those related to tourism, in the 

coastal zone of Caribbean countries are at risk 

from sea level rise and storm surge impacts. 

These risks can encourage innovative 

alternatives to the way of doing business and 

mainstreaming of disaster risk reduction across 

many areas of policy and practice. 

Climate change adaptation will come at a cost 

but the financial and human costs of inaction 

will be much greater. 

Tourism is the main economic driver in the 

Caribbean. Primary and secondary climate 

change impacts on this sector must both be 

considered seriously. Climate change is 

affecting related sectors such as health, 

agriculture, biodiversity and water resources 

that in turn impact on tourism resources and 

revenue in ways that are comparable to direct 

impacts on tourism alone. 

Continued learning is a necessary part of 

adaptation and building resilience and capacity. 

There are many areas in which action can and 

must be taken immediately. 

Learning from past experiences and applying 

new knowledge is essential in order to avoid 

maladaptation and further losses.

Overview Of Climate Change Issues In The Turks And Caicos Islands 

The Turks and Caicos Islands economy relies primarily on tourism and fisheries. These sectors, and 

others, are dependent on the state of the natural environment, so climate change impacts will 

adversely affect the livelihoods based on these sectors. 

Detailed climate modelling projections for the Turks & Caicos Islands predict: 

an increase in average atmospheric temperature; 

reduced average annual rainfall; 

increased Sea Surface Temperatures (SST); and 

the potential for an increase in the intensity of tropical storms. 

And the extent of such changes is expected to be worse than what is being experienced now. 

To capture local experiences and observations; and to determine the risks to coastal properties and 

infrastructure, selected sites were extensively assessed. Primary data were collected and analysed to: 

1. assess the vulnerability of the livelihoods of community residents in the Lower Bight area to 

climate change; and 

2. project sea level rise and storm surge impacts on Grand Turk Cruise Centre, Grand Turk West 

Shore and Historic Cockburn Town. 

These sites were selected by national stakeholders to represent areas of the country that are important to 

the tourism sector and the economy as a whole, and that are already experiencing adverse impacts from 

climate-related events. 

Vulnerable community livelihoods 

Flooding of Lower bight main road 

creates access problems. 

Even small storm surges results in 

beach erosion. 

Community residents depend on 

natural resources which are impacted 

by climate change. 

Very few fishermen and craft vendors 

have insurance. 

Women and men have unique 

vulnerabilities that are determined by 

their choice of livelihood. 

Climate change effects are evident in the decline of some coastal tourism resources, but also in the 

socioeconomic sectors which support tourism, such as agriculture, water resources, health and biodiversity. 

xviii 

Vulnerable coastlines 

Natural sand dunes have been lost to 

development in East Grace Bay, Pelican 

Point and Emerald Bay, making them 

more susceptible to SLR and storm 

surge 

0.5m of SLR results in the loss of 53% of 

the beach at Grand Turk, West Shore; 

and 65% of the beach at Historic 

Cockburn Town. 

Coral reefs are already impacted by 

sedimentation and overfishing. 

1m of SLR results in the loss of 61% of 

the beach at Grand Turk Cruise Centre.

Climate Modelling Projections for The Turks And Caicos Islands 

The projections of temperature, precipitation, sea surface temperatures; and tropical storms and hurricanes 

for The Turks & Caicos Islands are indicated in Box 1 and have been used in making expert judgements on 

the impacts on various socio-economic sectors and natural systems, and their further implications for the 

tourism industry. 

Box 1: Climate Modelling Projections for the Turks and Caicos Islands 

Temperature: Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections indicate an increase spanning 2.3˚C to 2.9˚C by 

the 2080s in the higher emissions scenario. 

Precipitation: General Circulation Model (GCMs) projections for annual rainfall span both overall 

decreases and increases ranging from -29 to +8 mm per month by the 2080s across three emissions 

scenarios. Most projections tend toward decreases. RCM simulation driven by HadCM3 boundary 

conditions indicates a large decrease (-35%) whereas that driven by ECHAM4 indicates a small increase 

(+2%) in annual rainfall. 

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST): GCM projections indicate increases in SST throughout the year. 

Projected increases range from +0.9˚C and +2.7˚C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios. 

Tropical Storms and Hurricanes: North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms appear to have increased 

in intensity over the last 30 years. Observed and projected increases in SSTs indicate potential for 

continuing increases in hurricane activity, and model projections indicate that this may occur through 

increases in intensity of events but not necessarily through increases in frequency of storms. 

Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and 

Settlements 

The Turks and Caicos Islands are two groups of 40 islands and cays separated by a deep water channel. Only 

8 islands are inhabited. The majority of infrastructure and settlements in the Turks & Caicos Islands, 

including government, health, commercial and 

transportation facilities, are located on or near 

the coast and these areas already face pressure 

from natural forces (wind, waves, tides and 

currents), and human activities, (beach sand 

removal and inappropriate construction of 

shoreline structures). The impacts of climate 

change, and in particular SLR, will magnify these 

pressures and accelerate coastal erosion. 

The CARIBSAVE partnership coordinated a field 

research team with members from the University 

of Waterloo (Canada) and the staff from the 

Figure 1: High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with 

GPS 

Department of Environment and Coastal Resources (DECR) of the Government of the Turks and Caicos 

Islands to complete detailed coastal profile surveying. To evaluate the vulnerability of beaches and coastal 

infrastructure to SLR and storm surge, Grand Turk Cruise Centre, Grand Turk West Shore and Historic 

Cockburn Town were surveyed. Additionally, 1 m and 2 m SLR scenarios and beach erosion scenarios of 50 

m and 100 m were calculated to assess the potential risks to major tourism resources. 

xix

The field study sites include notable resorts, ports and 

an airport that are at less than 6 m above sea level. 

Beach area losses in Turks and Caicos were also 

calculated for 0.5 m, 1 m, 2 m and 3 m scenario (Table 

1Table 4.6.2). At a 0.5 m SLR scenario, more than half 

of the beach area will be lost in Grand Turk West 

Shore (53%) and Historic Cockburn Town (65%). All 

(100%) of the beach area will be lost in Historic 

Cockburn Town under a 2 m SLR scenario, with all 

(100%) of the beach area in Grand Turk Cruise Centre 

and Grand Turk West Shore under a 3 m SLR scenario. 

Figure 2: Erosion at Cedar Grove Beach, TCI 

It is important to note that the critical beach assets 

would be affected much earlier than the SLR induced 

erosion damages to tourism infrastructure due to SLR-induced coastal erosion. Indeed if erosion is 

damaging tourism infrastructure, it means that the beach will have essentially disappeared. 

Table 1: Beach area losses at three beach locations in the Turks and Caicos Islands 

Grand Turk – Cruise 

Centre 

SLR Scenario Beach Area Beach 

Lost to SLR Area Lost 

(m²) 

(%) 

Grand Turk – West 

Shore 

Beach Area Beach 


(m²) (%) 

xx 

Historic Cockburn 

Town 



(m²) (%) 

0.5m 12,149 45% 30,874 53% 4,275 65% 

1.0m 4,380 61% 9,887 70% 1,019 81% 

2.0m 9,886 97% 13,723 94% 1,247 100% 

3.0m 778 100% 3,750 100% - - 

Table 2 shows that with projected 50 m erosion, 95% of the resorts in the Turks and Caicos Islands would 

be at risk, with all (100%) at risk with 100 m of erosion. Sea turtle nesting sites are also severely impacted 

by SLR induced erosion, with 100% of these sites impacted with a 50 m erosion scenario. Such impacts 

would transform coastal tourism across the Turks and Caicos Islands, with implications for property values, 

insurance costs, destination competitiveness, marketing, and wider issues of local employment and the 

economic well being of thousands of employees. 

Table 2: Impacts associated with 1 m and 2 m SLR and 50m and 100m beach erosion in the Turks and Caicos Islands 

EVENT SCALE 

Tourism Attractions Transportation Infrastructure 

Major 

Tourism 

Resorts 

Sea Turtle 

Nesting 

Sites 

Airport 

Lands 

Major 

Road 

Networks 

Port 


SLR 1.0 m 73% 44% 50% 4% 40% 

2.0 m 86% 60% - 6% - 

Erosion 50 m 95% 100% - - - 

100 m 100% - - - -

As shown in Figure 3, SLR in the historic downtown Cockburn Town on Grand Turk Island would result in a 

total land loss of 85,140.15 m 2 , with a total beach loss of 6,541 m 2 . Grand Turk Cruise Centre will face 

similar land loss impacts (85,140.15 m 2 ), with an even greater beach loss of 27,192.62 m 2 . This will have 

significant implications for the shoreline, with a loss of high value commercial tourism properties, including 

the popular White Sands Beach Resort. 

Figure 3: Total beach and land loss from SLR, Historic Downtown Cockburn Town, Grand Turk Island 

The response of tourists to such a diminished beach area remains an important question for future 

research; however local tourism operators perceive that these beach areas along with the prevailing 

climate are TCI’s main tourism attractions. 

The high resolution imagery provided by the techniques utilised in this project component is essential to 

assess the vulnerability of infrastructure and settlements to future SLR, but its ability to identify individual 

properties also makes it a very powerful risk communication tool. Having this information available for 

community / resort level dialogue on potential adaptation strategies is highly valuable. 

The current and projected vulnerabilities of the tourism sector to SLR, including coastal inundation and 

increased beach erosion, will result in economic losses for The Turks & Caicos Islands and its people if no 

action is taken to minimise infrastructure losses. Adaptation interventions will require revisions to 

development plans and investment decisions and these considerations must be based on the best available 

information regarding the specific coastal infrastructure and ecosystem resources along the coast, in 

addition to the resulting economic and non-market impacts. 

Engineered structures and natural environments (e.g. mangroves) can protect against some of these 

impacts to coastal regions, but the dynamics of these erosion processes will demand some adaptation of 

xxi

coastal infrastructure and settlements. Given the historical damage caused by event driven coastal erosion, 

as well as slow onset SLR, the need to design and implement better strategies for mitigating their impacts is 

becoming apparent. There are a number of solutions that can be used to tackle beach erosion. Hard 

engineering structures such as levees and sea walls can be used to protect the land and related 

infrastructure from the sea. This is done to ensure that existing land uses, such as tourism, continue to 

operate despite changes in the surface level of the sea. Unfortunately, this approach may be expensive and 

provides no guarantee of equivalent protection following extreme events. Adaptation options should be 

implemented in the framework of integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) and all decisions need to 

take into account the broad range of stakeholders involved in decision-making in the coastal zone. 

Interventions should also benefit coastlines in light of both climate and non-climate stresses. 

Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development 

Figure 4: A small group creating vulnerability map 

Community Characteristics and Experiences 

xxii 

More than 50 residents and workers from the 

Lower Bight community participated in 

CARIBSAVE’s vulnerability assessment which 

included a vulnerability mapping exercise, 

focus-groups and household surveys which 

were developed according to a sustainable 

livelihoods framework. This research provided 

an understanding of: how the main tourism 

related activities, including fishing and other 

micro- and medium-sized commercial 

activities located along the coast and have 

been affected by climate-related events; the 

community’s adaptive capacity and the 

complex factors that influence their livelihood 

choices; and the differences in the 

vulnerability of men and women. 

Lower Bight is located adjacent to Grace Bay along the northern coastline of the island of Providenciales, 

the tourism capital of the Turks and Caicos Islands and tourism is the major economic activity in this 

community, with numerous accommodation facilities, restaurants, arts and craft sales and marine 

excursions. Lower Bight Road, which is the main road and access lane in the community, runs parallel to the 

coastline and divides the area into one zone with residential pockets (landward side, including some lowincome 

households) and the seaward side where many tourism and other business entities are located. 

There are also some schools, churches and Government departments located in the area. Many of 

residents who live in Lower Bight are therefore employed by hotels or some of the smaller tourism 

enterprises and work as tour guides and taxi operators. Some residents are also craft vendors and are 

mainly patronised by tourists. 

The sea, beaches, reef systems and marine life provide a basis for operating numerous enterprises within 

Lower Bight, mainly within the tourism and fisheries industries. However, these resources face tremendous 

pressures from both natural and human sources, including storms, diseases, pollution and changes in the 

environment. Based on its coastal location and the sloping nature of the land, people and infrastructure in

Lower Bight are vulnerable to the yearly impact of hurricanes and landslide events (specifically the lowincome 

households located on the southern side of the ridge), coastal inundation and storm surge impacts. 

Community members have also observed gradual changes in weather patterns such as an increase in the 

frequency and intensity of hurricanes, increasing ambient temperatures (as compared to previous years) 

and warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) which have resulted in bleaching of near shore reefs. Winter 

months were also reported to be warmer than normal. 

With regards to flooding impacts, Lower Bight experienced some flooding in November of 2008 and in 

summer of 2005 (two events in 2005). The community sits on a hill above the coast, but the coastal road 

(Lower Bight Road) is the main access road, which can be (and has been) cut off during a flood. 

Light to moderate storm surge events will cause major beach erosion and affect hotel properties and 

facilities that are situated on the beach. However, more extreme storm surge events can cause coastal 

inundation and more extensive damage to coastal infrastructure. Some properties with swimming pools 

on the beach have been so affected by beach erosion that the pools were subsequently demolished. Small 

craft (yachts, dive boats, fishing boats) docking along the coast (e.g. in Turtle Cove Marina, though not in 

Lower Bight proper) are extremely vulnerable to storm surge impacts, and have been severely damaged 

during hurricanes despite heavy anchoring. 

Figure 5: Kirk Delaney (far right), a community member, was trained by 

CARIBSAVE to conduct the livelihoods survey with other persons from Lower 

Bight 

Of the several climate-related issues for residents of Lower Bight, the main concerns include hurricanes and 

localised flooding (which is not always associated with a hurricane). Recent experiences with extreme 

weather events include Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike, both of which occurred within a span of 

two weeks in 2008; and localised flooding later that year from heavy rains. In all instances, some tourism 

and related businesses were temporarily closed and persons working in agriculture, fisheries (although 

small) and craft vending were also severely impacted. Employees were compensated for the time of 

closure; however self-employed persons had no source of income for a period of time. There was no loss 

of life, or significant loss of property but extensive power outages and blocked access roads necessitated 

the use of traditional methods for food preparation. 

xxiii

Perceptions of vulnerability in the community may suggest that women tend to bear more social 

vulnerabilities because of the burden of family care (especially in female-headed single-parent households), 

and differential access to resources, whereas men bear more physical vulnerabilities owing to their 

attitudes about safety and precaution, and underestimation of risks. However, the extent of vulnerability 

appears to be more related to employment status (employed by a company; self-employed; unemployed) 

and less with gender since both genders have similar employment statuses even if in different areas. For 

example, mainly women work in hotels as ancillary staff and housekeeping, while men work as security 

guards, chefs and bartenders. Fishermen and craft vendors (mostly female) are self-employed. This is 

consistent with and generally accepted that poverty is the most contributory factor to vulnerability. Poor 

persons in the community (with little or no access to financial, food and other resources; and who live in 

vulnerable homes) lost most of their already small asset-base in the passage of Hannah and Ike. 

There are no strong or formal community organisations which contribute to the running of the community 

in Lower Bight specifically, but smaller, less formal community groups exist to effect micro-scale community 

development. It would therefore be important to identify opportunities for community level disaster 

mitigation activities that can be implemented through collaboration between the Department for Disaster 

Management and Emergencies, the sub-national disaster committees and local communities. The 

establishment of the disaster group in Lower Bight will help build community cohesion, while at the same 

time increasing the community’s resilience to climate-related hazards. Relationships should also be built 

with other organisations such as the Turks and Caicos Red Cross Society (one unit is based in 

Providenciales), emergency service providers and donors to facilitate training, education, mitigation and 

rehabilitation activities. 

To accommodate those most vulnerable people in the community an official hurricane shelter in the Lower 

Bight area should be established, and the structural integrity of buildings that are currently used as 

provisional shelters should be improved. The hurricane shelter can also serve as a community centre 

outside of the hurricane season, and when no immediate storm threat exists. Capacity building in 

alternative livelihoods would also be of benefit to those who are and would continue to be impacted by 

climate-related events. 

Agriculture and Food Security 

The agriculture sector in the Turks and Caicos has been severely neglected over a sustained period of time. 

National account statistics indicate that the sector’s contribution to GDP is about 0.65%, and only about 

2.33% of the total land mass is considered to be arable land, the majority of which is located on North and 

Middle Caicos as small holdings. The Turks & Caicos Islands Investment Agency has distinctly identified 

North Caicos as the potential “bread basket” of the islands. More specifically, the agricultural communities 

of Bottle Creek, Whitby, Sandy Point and Kew have been identified where local farmers successfully grow 

crops such as spring onions, peppers, tomatoes, cabbages, okras, cantaloupe, aubergine, cucumbers, 

papayas, melons, herbs and condiments. However, there is significantly less farming activity now than 

before. 

Understandably then, more than 90% of food currently consumed in Turks and Caicos is imported from the 

U.S., Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The implications for food security are concerning if there is a 

shortage or transportation delays from source markets resulting from climate change and extreme weather 

events. 

xxiv

Figure 6: A young farmer 

from North Caicos 

Source: 

http://tcweeklynews.com/boo 

st-for-tci-farming-p1929.htm 

Although agriculture constitutes a minor industry in the Turks and Caicos 

Islands, the sector exhibits a high vulnerability to the existing climate, and is 

especially susceptible to extreme weather events. An ECLAC disaster 

assessment iii found that the passage of Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike 

within days of each other in 2008 caused almost complete devastation to 

vegetable, fruit and root crops in Turks and Caicos. Tree crops including 

coconuts, sapodillas, sugar apples, avocadoes and mangoes, were also severely 

damaged by hurricane winds. Commercial fishers lost trap boats, traps, and 

sustained structural damage to three processing plants which hindered fishing 

activities following the hurricane and led to spoilage of some stock. 

A significant factor contributing to the vulnerability of this sector is soil 

degradation as a result of uncontrolled land use practices, particularly the 

increasing number of luxury tourism developments. Social vulnerability of the 

farming districts is characterised by the dearth of farmers available to sustain 

the sector and local demand and the fragmented nature of the sector with small-farmers scattered across 

the various islands. Additionally, agro processing and post harvest facilities in the Turks and Caicos Islands 

are limited, and there are presently no commercial cottage industries on any of the islands. Equally 

important, many TCI farmers have little knowledge of climate change impacts on their livelihoods. These 

factors clearly limit the capacity for agricultural advancement and for enabling food security. 

Presently, adaptive capacity for responding to climate change impacts on agriculture is severely limited. 

While there is a Plan for Managing the Marine Fisheries of The Turks and Caicos Islands, there is no clear 

policy for agricultural development. However, the action plan for climate change adaptation as outlined in 

the Turks and Caicos Islands Climate Change Green Paper (2011) includes the following measures: 

Promoting traditional land management practices that conserve soil fertility and biodiversity and 

protect ecosystem functions and processes 

Practicing aggressive management of invasive species that threaten agricultural production 

Restoration of degraded areas 

Investment in new technology such as hydroponics and biotechnology/bio-safety. 

In an effort to enhance local agricultural outputs, the Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands has 

embarked on an initiative and made five thousand acres of land in North Caicos available to farmers. This 

land has fresh water lenses and will be restricted for agricultural use. The Government farm in North Caicos 

is to benefit from a US $150,000 cash injection to buy new equipment and modernise the 140 acre facility. 

While this is necessary step in addressing food security issues, an overarching policy framework should be 

developed to reinforce the proposed plans for improving agricultural production and will ensure a 

systematic approach to sustainable agricultural development. 

To encourage greater participation in this sector a capacity building programme should be developed for 

existing and potential farmers on new agro-technologies, soil and water management, and adaptation to 

climate change. The Government demonstration farm can be used as a multi-purpose site for training and 

also for research to determine which crops can best be grown in Turks and Caicos and under what 

conditions. On-site experiments should incorporate organoponics, hydroponics, greenhouse and other 

technologies in collaboration with the farmers’ association, local schools and colleges. 

xxv

Energy and Tourism 

Tourism is an increasingly significant energy consumer and emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) both 

globally and in the Caribbean. TCI belong to the region’s high emitters, producing more than the global 

annual average. This has resulted in part by the fact that current tourism related energy use and associated 

emissions in Turks and Caicos are estimated to be the equivalent of almost 150% of estimated national 

emissions. Cruise ships (39%), aviation (30%), and accommodation (15%), were identified as the major 

direct consumers of energy and emissions. 

Electricity is supplied to the islands by two providers. The islands of Providenciales, North, Middle and 

South Caicos are supplied by Fortis Turks and Caicos who operate Provo Power Company Ltd. (PPC) and 

Atlantic Equipment and Power (Turks and Caicos) Ltd. The latter serves South Caicos only. Turks & Caicos 

Utilities, Ltd. (TCU) supplies Grand Turk and Salt Cay. Over 2,200 customers in Grand Turk and Salt Cay are 

supplied with electricity from two diesel-fired plants with a total installed capacity of 11.043 MW but the 

estimated peak demand is 4.5 MW. The relative lack of hotels on these islands means that residential and 

commercial customers represent the largest consumers, although given that the seat of government is on 

Grand Turk, they are also a significant customer. This excess capacity may also mean that introduction of 

renewable energy technology on these islands might not be strongly considered. 

The following tables provide statistics for the growth in electricity consumption by sector for all TCI islands 

combined (See Table 3). No further information is available on either bunker fuels, oil imports for 

generators (electricity production), or emissions of greenhouse gases. In recent years, consumption has 

increased across sectors and across islands, doubling in 6 years for the commercial sector. Providenciales 

and Grand Turk have increased consumption by 82 and 71% respectively. Demand for power in 

Providenciales has grown consistently since the 1990s, driven by tourism and real estate development 

(especially hotels and condominiums) i . 

Table 3: Growth trends in energy consumption in Turks and Caicos by sector, 2002-2007 

MWh 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 

Residential 29,882 33,738 36,755 42,613 49,242 57,521 

Commercial 17,296 18,954 22,638 26,899 34,755 41,437 

Government 5,846 6,134 6,837 7,387 8,374 9,413 

Street lights 821 1,174 997 1,385 1,527 2,151 

Other 39,672 41,621 39,021 42,705 50,660 56,933 

Total 

consumption 

93,517 101,621 106,247 120,989 144,559 167,456 

(Source: DEPS, 2008a) 

Even though economic growth has slowed since 2008, it is still unclear how trends in energy use will 

develop, though an increase in international tourism and in particular cruise tourism, would indicate that 

energy consumption in the islands is bound to see further growth once the global economic situation 

improves. 

An increase in the intensity of severe low pressure systems, such as hurricanes, has the potential to affect 

both traditional and renewable energy production and distribution infrastructure, including generating 

i Castalia (2011). Development of an Energy Conservation Policy and Implementation Strategy for the Turks and Caicos Islands. 

Draft Final Report, 25 February 2011. 

xxvi

plants, transmission lines, and pipelines, as experienced during Hurricane Ike in 2008 when over 95% of the 

distribution network (poles, lines, line hardware, transformers, generator buildings) was destroyed. 

Power generating stations and other major infrastructure located on the coastline are also highly 

vulnerable to damage from flooding and inundation resulting from SLR and storm surges. Temperature 

increases have been shown to reduce the efficiency of energy generation at thermal power plants and 

reduced precipitation may affect water availability for non-contact cooling of power generators. The 

impacts of climate change affecting energy systems in TCI should therefore be assessed for existing 

traditional sources as well as the planned renewable energy sources. 

In the aftermath of extreme weather, the process of restoring transmission and proper operation of 

generating facilities depends on road access and the amount of supplies available to replace infrastructure 

components that have been damaged or destroyed. In Grand Turk following Hurricane Ike, the desalination 

plant had to borrow two generators in order to continue supplying water for the 2 weeks that electricity 

was unavailable. It was estimated that it would take approximately three months for the TCU rehabilitation 

work to be completed (up to 6 weeks for PPC) and replacement equipment would have to be sourced from 

North America. Following the damage to distribution infrastructure experienced during Hurricane Ike in 

2008, both companies made efforts to reduce their vulnerability to future events by upgrading the replaced 

infrastructure. 

With regard to adaptive capacity of the utility providers themselves, both electricity companies have high 

reserve capacity to ensure that the system can withstand unplanned outages during periods of peak 

demand or in the event of failure of one or more generating units. PPC has invested in higher efficiency 

generation plant and is actively addressing the efficiency of its fuel supply by increasing its fuel storage 

capacity with new infrastructure. This is the most immediate action that can be taken to improve fuel 

supply since it can reduce frequency of shipments, decrease costs, and increase an isolated system‘s power 

reliability. However it is uncertain if the physical impacts of climate change were given consideration. 

Indirect climate change impacts may also be brought on by other sectors through forward or reverse 

linkages with the energy sector, and may include competition for shared resources, trends in demand and 

supply and pricing. These impacts are not only limited to traditional (fossil fuel based) energy systems, but 

renewable systems as well. While direct impacts are more visible, the costs of indirect impacts can be 

difficult to quantify and often exceed those of direct impacts, given the inter-relationships between energy 

and other sectors. 

Another factor to consider is that the stability of the energy market in TCI is threatened by rising fuel prices. 

This is especially concerning given the high costs of transportation (no deep water ports), small market and 

inability to use cheaper fuels. Fuel prices are relevant for the tourism system as a whole because mobility is 

a precondition for tourism and rising oil prices will usually be passed on to the customer. This was evident 

in 2008 when many airlines added a fuel surcharge to plane tickets in order to compensate for the spike in 

oil prices. Increased travel costs can therefore lead to a shift from long haul to short haul destinations. 

Other than off-grid, small solar and wind systems at individual premises there is virtually no uptake of 

renewable energy in the Turks and Caicos though there is considerable renewable energy potential. But 

the country has laid the groundwork for future renewable energy and energy efficiency initiatives through 

the development of the Energy Conservation Policy and Implementation Strategy. In 2010, the Advisory 

Council on Renewable Energy recommended: 

Supporting private investment in renewable energy technologies through the use of Crown Land, 

tax deferral and/or concessions. 

xxvii

Reviewing and considering the feasibility of renewable energy generation targets binding on 

utilities. 

Changing building and planning regulations to support micro-generation and water efficiency. 

Clarifying cost structures and incentives for existing suppliers to invest in renewable energy. 

Since traditional tourism management is primarily concerned with revenue management, to facilitate the 

transformation of tourism towards becoming climatically sustainable will necessitate concerted efforts in 

mitigation even to the extent of aiming to achieve carbon neutrality. Emissions and revenue also need to 

be integrated and energy intensities need to be linked to profits. While this would demand a rather radical 

change from current business models in tourism, all aspects of a low-carbon tourism system are principally 

embraced by business organisations. An indicator in this regard can be eco-efficiencies, i.e. the amount of 

emissions caused by each visitor to generate one unit of revenue. However, this kind of analysis is generally 

not as yet possible for Caribbean islands due to the lack of data on tourist expenditure by country and 

tourist type (e.g. families, singles, wealthy-healthy-older-people, visiting friends and relatives, etc.). 

In consideration of the renewable energy and energy efficiency potential, the Climate Change Green Paper 

supports the need to develop an Energy Policy as an important adaptation strategy and concludes that 

mitigation measures can provide useful benefits such as energy cost savings and recognition as a lowcarbon 

destination. Through continued study, monitoring and fundraising, the barriers and resource 

shortages can be sourced for successful implementation of this strategy. 

Given the importance of tourism in TCI and the potential for sustainable energy initiatives within this 

sector, it is vital for governments to engage all tourism actors in adopting a sustainable tourism policy, 

because tourism is largely a private sector activity. The Climate Change Green Paper identifies a number of 

actions related to energy use in the tourism sector in the short, medium and long term. In the short term it 

recommends that the tourism industry be encouraged to reduce energy use and build eco-friendly designs. 

In the medium term it calls for the adoption of greener technologies at tourism facilities and in the long 

term for attaining Green Globe, Green Key and Green Hotel certifications. 

Furthermore, governments are involved in creating infrastructure such as airports, roads or railways, and 

they also stimulate tourism development, as exemplified by marketing campaigns. The choices and 

preferences of governments thus create the preconditions for tourism development and low-carbon 

economies. There is growing consensus that climate policy has a key role to play in the transformation of 

tourism towards sustainability, not least because technological innovation and behavioural change will 

demand strong regulatory environments. 

Turks and Caicos have laid the groundwork for future renewable energy and energy efficiency initiatives 

through the development of the Energy Conservation Policy and Implementation Strategy. However, more 

effort and resources are required to develop the action plan that will lead to meaningful implementation, 

particularly with regard to the major energy consuming sectors currently not considered, i.e. shipping and 

aviation. 

Water Quality and Availability 

The Turk Islands in the southeast receive low annual rainfall of 533 mm; the north west of the group, 

including the major islands of North Caicos and Providenciales, receive nearly double this amount. This high 

variability in rainfall patterns means that drought may be experienced in individual islands independent of 

others. According to the Country Poverty Assessment for the Turks and Caicos Islands, Grand Turk and Salt 

Cay are particularly affected by higher water demand in comparison to available water resources. Also, 87% 

xxviii

of hotel rooms are located in Providenciales and as such the greatest water demand for the sector may be 

associated with this. 

Figure 7: Small-scale reverse 

osmosis technology 

Potable water is typically sourced from reverse osmosis desalination of 

brackish, underground water on the populated islands of 

Providenciales, Grand Turk and Salt Cay; while on the less populated 

islands, many homes have sizeable cisterns to store water (which have 

been required by law), and these may be replenished either from 

rainwater or via truck-borne water supplies. Non-potable water 

resources including sea water and brackish groundwater are also 

utilised for flushing toilets. 

Cisterns have been an important means of reducing water shortages, 

especially during the passage of hurricane systems. For example, after Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane 

Ike, in islands which primarily use cisterns, water supply was not a significant problem except for temporary 

damage to piping, much of which was fixed rapidly by the locals themselves. However, in Grand Turk, 

where water is produced from desalination, water supplies were disrupted due to cuts in the electricity 

supply until stand-by generators were engaged. 

Changes in rainfall patterns associated with climate change may lead to a decrease in fresh water 

availability and more frequent and severe droughts. This will affect the ability of the country to harvest 

rainwater and it is likely that the dependency on desalinated water will increase, leading to an increase in 

the cost of water supply. Among the damages that SLR may cause are the loss of agricultural land and 

coastal fresh water resources through erosion, and salt water intrusion into aquifers. SLR may also result in 

damage to infrastructure associated with desalination infrastructure. Since a reduction in precipitation is 

expected as a result of climate change, drought management will become a progressively large challenge, 

requiring a multifocal approach due to its non-structural nature and complex spatial patterns. 

The institutional and regulatory framework for water management in the Turks and Caicos Islands is limited 

to water supply management and, to a much lesser extent, wastewater management. Water demand 

management, water supply planning, protection of underground water quality and the monitoring and 

regulation of desalination are all lacking ii . The National Socio-economic Development Strategy aims to 

address these deficiencies and deliver a sustainable water supply, as well as addressing previously 

neglected aspects of water resources management through new and improved waterworks infrastructure 

and the development of centralised wastewater system. 

In the Climate Change Green Paper, the following climate change adaptation strategies are given for water 

resources and these should be implemented as a priority: 

1. Educate the public on water conservation measures. 

2. Rainwater harvesting (i.e. from rooftops) and tanks: to store rain water as an alternative source of 

drinking water so that communities aren’t solely reliant on groundwater. 

3. Increase resilience to heavy rain events by improving infrastructure design 

ii DEPS. (2007b). National Socio-economic Development Framework (2008-2017): National Socio-economic Development Strategy. 

Department of Economic Planning and Statistics, Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands Retrieved 21/09/2011, from 

http://www.depstc.org/ndp/ndp_downloads/NDP_draft_reports/NSEDF%20- 

%20North%20Caicos%20Socioeconomic%20Development%20Plan.pdf 

xxix

4. Local watershed management: support institutions that have the authority to manage the local 

catchment in the interest of all stakeholders, including domestic water users; ensure there is 

proper accountability in these institutions. 

Additionally, water infrastructure should be developed to increase access to sanitation facilities and safe 

water so as to reduce vulnerability to climate variability and extreme events including droughts and major 

storms or hurricanes. In particular, the viability of additional large public storage facilities should be 

assessed, allowing improved access to potable water in different communities; losses in water distribution 

should be reduced through pipe replacement, and monitored through the use of electronic bulk metering; 

adequate desalination capacity during power outages should be ensured by equipping plants with back-up 

power generators with a sufficient fuel supply. 

Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management 

The natural hazards facing Turks and Caicos 

are numerous and unpredictable, therefore 

investments in preparedness and capacity 

building will improve the overall resilience to 

impacts when they do occur. TCI is located 

within the Atlantic Hurricane Belt, however, it 

is fortunate to have been significantly 

impacted by fewer than 20 storms since 1492. 

Vulnerabilities clearly exist and were evident 

in the recent passage of Hurricane Irene 

which caused serious flooding problems in 

August 2011. The lack of variation in 

topography creates excellent conditions for 

flooding when there are periods of heavy 

rain, and storm surges also regularly impact 

the coastal areas when tropical storms pass the island chain. Roadways were impassable for several days 

even after Irene had moved away from TCI. Three feet of water in some areas not only affected 

transportation, but also highlighted the need for flood-proofing of homes and businesses. 

Figure 9: Hurricane Ike damages in Grand Turk 

(Source: Associated Press, Brennan Linsley, 2008) 

Figure 8: Damaged causeway connecting Middle and North 

Caicos following Hurricane Ike, 2008 

Source: http://www.turks-and-caicos-adventure.com/middle-caicos.html 

xxx 

However, more serious impacts had been 

experienced in 2008 when two storms, 

Hanna and Ike, impacted the Turks and 

Caicos in close succession. Tropical Storm 

Hanna circled the islands effectively 

impacting them twice over 4 days! These 

two storms demonstrated the great 

vulnerability of public utilities to high winds. 

The 2008 UNECLAC report’s assessment of 

the damages and losses (Table 4) caused by

Hanna and Ike reveal the strong dependence on tourism economically, but also the high vulnerability of the 

tourism sector. 

Table 4: Distribution of impacts from Hanna and Ike by productive subsector (US $) 

Sector Damage Loss Total % of impacts 

Tourism $2,966,141.00 $8,849,917.00 $11,816,058.00 57% 

Agriculture $337,250.00 $74,025.00 $411,275.00 2% 

Fisheries $832,115.00 $1,220,000.00 $2,062,115.00 10% 

Wholesale and Retail Trade $3,951,840.00 $2,603,637.00 $6,555,477.00 31% 

Environment (waste removal) $4,800.00 $4,800.00 

Total $8,090,130.00 $14,772,379.00 $22,862,509.00 

(Source: ECLAC, 2008, p. 15) 

Damages to the tourism sector included many damaged roofs. Although Providenciales, where the majority 

of the hotel rooms are located, was spared any serious damages, they still had to keep 80% of the hotels 

closed for two weeks from the time Ike passed causing interruptions to employment and lost revenues 

nearing US $2,000,000 iii . 

Following these storms, the UK Government provided a grant to TCI to assist with the recovery and future 

preparedness efforts. The focus of their funding went to health, education, housing and preparedness, 

while not-for-profit organisations assisted with the construction of water storage facilities and sanitation 

projects. Hazard and Vulnerability Assessments were also conducted to produce hazard maps which can be 

used to inform physical planning decisions and emergency planning procedures including sheltering and 

evacuation. 

The Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies has support from community organisations and 

civil society groups and together they are slowly working toward getting more national committees on 

board with disaster risk reduction efforts. But in the absence of legislation for disaster risk reduction, the 

effectiveness of the Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies cannot reach its full potential. 

Still, recent public awareness efforts and hazard mapping exercises improve both disaster management 

efforts as well as providing valuable climate change adaptation capacity. 

The TCI Department of Planning and other related ministries determined in the National Development 

Strategy that efforts would be made to review current Physical Planning regulations and legislation in 

addition to establishing a monitoring and enforcement unit. While it is unclear whether this will include 

consideration of hazards and climate change, regular review of planning procedures and policies is a good 

practice and given that this process is listed within environmental management efforts, it is likely that highrisk 

areas would be addressed as a priority. The establishment of a monitoring and enforcement unit is also 

positive as it will help control growth and ensure regulations are adhered to throughout the islands. 

With limited human and other resources in times of disaster, it becomes imperative to build capacity so 

individuals are empowered to reduce their own risk. As such, an interactive and innovative community 

education and capacity building initiative designed to reach all levels of society in TCI should be 

implemented. Although a communication strategy does exist, the Department of Disaster Management and 

Emergencies needs to maintain regular communication with the public to keep building a ‘culture of 

resilience’. 

iii ECLAC. (2008). Turks and Caicos Islands: Macro Socio-economic Assessment of the Damage and Losses Caused by Tropical Storm 

Hanna and Hurricane Ike. Port-of-Spain, Trinidad and Tobago: Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean. 

xxxi

Given the importance of tourism to the national economy it is also important that the government works 

with relevant tourism stakeholders to further develop and implement sustainable tourism plans with some 

more attention paid to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation. Tourism infrastructure is 

currently concentrated in the coastal zone where the risk of storm surge, tsunami and coastal erosion is 

greatest. These hazards will degrade the tourism product (e.g. beach, coral reefs) and also expose tourists 

to risks. 

Human Health 

Health is an important issue in the tourism industry because tourists are susceptible to acquiring diseases 

as well as potential carriers of diseases. The effects of climate-related phenomena on public health can be 

direct or indirect. The former includes weather related mortality and morbidity arising from natural 

disasters (e.g. hurricanes) and high temperatures (e.g. ‘hot’ days / nights). Indirect impacts are more 

extensive, including vector borne diseases such as dengue fever and malaria. 

Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike caused significant damage to TCI’s health sector in 2008 amounting 

to US $29.7 million, 11% was due to damages and 89% due to losses iii . Table 5 below gives a breakdown of 

the total damages and losses. Overseas treatment, particularly for persons requiring dialysis and other 

emergency needs, accounted for the greatest expenditure as the Grand Turk Hospital and other important 

institutions in the health care network were too damaged to accommodate such persons. It is also 

important to note that there are fewer generators than essential facilities which require them and this can 

put hospitals in a vulnerable position in the event of an emergency. There is therefore a need to address 

these vulnerabilities. 

Table 5: Summary effects on the health sector from Hurricane Ike and Storm Hanna in the Turks and Caicos Islands 

(US $) 

TOTAL EFFECT $29,712,660.00 

Total Damage $3,274,731.00 

i. Damage to Health Facilities $3,193,000.00 

ii. Damage to equipment and furnishings $81,731.00 

iii. Imported component $2,947,257.90 

Total Losses $26,437,929.00 

i. Environmental health including clearing of debris and public 

education 

$944,620.00 

ii. Addition cost of generation electricity $131,820.00 

iii. Loss due to transfer of patients to other facilities for care $25,000,000.00 

iv. Losses due to forgone income $25,500.00 

v. Losses to the establishment of temporary clinics $130,000.00 

vi. Additional cost to staff services $101,580.00 

vii. Additional cost of communications $2,000.00 

viii. Additional cost for relocation of families in need $56,559.00 

ix. Lost due to additional cost of water $45,850.00 

(Source: ECLAC, 2008) 

Not only will extreme events like storms impact the population through the disruption in utilities such as 

water and electricity but flooding creates suitable environments for mosquitoes and other pests to breed. 

Vector borne diseases of relevance include dengue fever, malaria and leptospirosis. Also, the poor living 

xxxii

conditions associated with immigrants is a threat to the quality of the tourism product for it can increase 

the risk of transmitting communicable diseases in communities where these infectious agents exist. 

TCI’s propensity for drought conditions has implications for the health sector as episodes of dry weather 

and drought conditions can contribute to the spread of disease linked to inadequate water supply and poor 

sanitation, as well as asthma and other respiratory diseases. A number of food-borne and water-borne 

illnesses are associated with water and poor sanitation and those of relevance for the Turks and Caicos 

Islands include gastroenteritis, shigellosis, salmonella, cholera and typhoid fever. Table 6 below shows that 

cases of gastroenteritis have increased almost consistently every year from 2003 - 2009. 

Table 6: Reported cases of gastroenteritis in the Turks and Caicos Islands between 2000 and 2009 

Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 

Sum of Gastroenteritis < 5 yrs 209 183 72 197 197 360 302 280 365 303 

Sum of Gastroenteritis ≥ 5 yrs - 1 22 210 207 350 426 513 571 825 

Total no. cases 209 184 94 407 404 710 728 793 931 1128 

(Source: CAREC, 2008a; CAREC, 2008; CAREC, 2008b; CAREC, 2010) 

In the Turks and Caicos Islands if temperatures increase, there is a potential for health impacts due heat 

exhaustion and dehydration, especially on those persons with existing heart conditions. Other diseases of 

relevance with possible climate change signals include the acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis and 

legionnaire’s disease. 

Since most of the food consumed in TCI is imported, the unavailability of food due to environmental 

disasters in source markets or that affect transportation could have consequences for the health of the 

population, particularly the poorest sectors of the society. Incidences of ciguatera fish poisoning, which are 

already reported in the Turks and Caicos Islands, may increase as seas become warmer due to climate 

change, triggering harmful algal blooms which increase the toxins that bio-accumulate in fish species. 

Compared to other countries in the Caribbean, TCI is advanced in its response to climate change within the 

health sector. The Public and Environmental Health Ordinance and the Water and Sewer Ordinance are the 

main pieces of legislation that govern health care in TCI, and the National Socio-economic Development 

Framework (NSEDF) 2008 - 2017 is the most current document mapping the development of social 

concerns. The latter has in fact identified climate change as a priority area to be addressed. Also, the 

expenditure on health programmes for the period 2008 to 2017 accounts for 40% of the NSEDF budget 

indicating the priority given to health care. Other areas addressed included health threats due to 

emergencies, education on climate change impacts, the need for regional institutional linkages and greater 

data collection and the strengthening of disease surveillance for pandemics and epidemics, vector and 

water-borne diseases. Additionally, in 2010, two new general public hospital facilities located in Grand 

Turks and Providenciales were built to withstand category 5 hurricanes. 

While the healthcare statistics of the Turks and Caicos Islands mirrors a more developed country, there are 

a number of basic issues that challenge the ability of the health care sector to cope with diseases that have 

climate changes cues. As such, dependence of infectious disease surveillance and disease outbreak 

management has been identified as a priority iv . Vaccination for certain diseases such as diphtheria and 

seasonal influenza are important adaptation measures currently employed. 

iv PAHO. (2011). Emergency Operations Centre Situation Report #3 Hurricane Irene Retrieved 16/09/2011, from 

http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/EOC-HurricaneIrene-SitRep3-31082011ENG.pdf 

xxxiii

Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries 

The Turks and Caicos Islands boast several exclusive attractions for visitors such as sighting Humpback 

whales and manta rays, sport-fishing for tunas and marlins and diving along impressive coral reefs. 

Encounters with exotic birds are frequent among the salt ponds and marshes that provide breeding and 

feeding grounds for terns, blue herons and pink flamingos. Although geographically small in scale, the 

islands are a treasure trove for approximenately 200 species of waterfowl and shorebirds and provide 

habitat to 17 species of reptiles (seven are alien species) and four species of cave-dweling bats, the only 

remaining native mammals. Over 550 plant species have been identified on the islands and cays; 9 are 

endemic to TCI and an additional 40 species are endemic to the Bahamas archipelago. 

Figure 10: A healthy brain coral attracts a shoal of small fish 

xxxiv 

With much of TCI’s tourism located along the 

coast, beaches are at great risk to impacts from 

the rapid development of tourism infrastructure. 

Uncontrolled sand mining for construction has 

damaged sand dunes such as those of Booby 

Rock Point in Grand Turk. The introduction of 

the Australian pine tree, Casuarina equisetifolia, 

has also increased the vulnerability of beaches 

to erosive action. The tree is an invasive alien 

species that was initially introduced to help 

stabilise sandy soils; however, it is outcompeting 

natural vegetation and actually destabilising 

sand and increasing the risk of beach erosion. 

Coral reefs are a significant feature of TCI’s marine environment and provide a range of ecosystem services 

including the white sand for its famous beaches; habitat for a wide diversity of marine species and critically 

important coastal defences for the low-lying islands and cays. Grand Turk has a well-earned reputation as 

one of the finest diving destinations in the world with an outstanding protected coral reef that drops to 

7,000 feet along the west side of the island. Reefs of TCI are extensive and diverse with an estimated area 

of almost 1,200 km 2 of bank and fringing reefs comprised of about 30 different coral species. 

TCI was spared the worst effects of the 2005 Pan Caribbean bleaching episode but various coral species 

showed bleaching at depths of up to 15 m. Of 166 coral colonies at The Warhead, The Fishbowl and 

Tuckers Reefs, only three colonies (one Montastraea annularis and two Agaricia agaricites) were 

completely bleached; 87 colonies showed partial bleaching. By December of the following year, colonies 

showed signs of recovery with little evidence of coral mortality. The ability of coral reef ecosystems to 

withstand the impacts of climate change will depend on the extent of exposure to other anthropogenic 

pressures and the frequency of future bleaching events so this experience supports the findings from the 

World Resource Institute, that TCI possesses some of the least threatened coral reefs in the Caribbean 

region. However, there are still threats which must be reduced and/or eliminated. There has been damage 

to fore-reef corals from intense dive tourism, especially near Providenciales, West Caicos and the western 

drop-off on Grand Turk. Sedimentation from construction, sewage pollution, anti-fouling paints in marinas, 

coral breakage by anchors and ship groundings are other impacts threatening the health of coral reefs in 

TCI. 

Within the past five years a number of groins and breakwaters have been constructed and beach 

nourishment projects have been undertaken in order to protect coastlines at East Grace Bay, Pelican Point 

and Emerald Bay. As TCI seeks to expand the tourism sector consideration must be given to establishing

and enforcing adequate coastal setbacks since impermeable structures erected too close to the shoreline 

disrupt the natural cycle of accretion and erosion of sandy beaches, and accelerate the rate of erosion of 

sand. This not only makes beaches less attractive, but can be costly because reduced beach width allows 

waves to break further inshore and wear away at the foundation of built structures like homes, resorts and 

condominiums. 

Intense tropical cyclones and accompanying storm surges can dramatically alter beach profiles. In 2008 

Hurricane Ike impacted several beaches including Governor’s Beach, one of the main public beaches in the 

National Park system, and East Grace Bay a significant resort area, both of which suffered substantial 

erosion - in particular the latter lost up to five feet of sand in height. Also, a restoration project of Emerald 

Beach that was completed in June of that same year was completely lost. The frequency of storms often 

does not allow sufficient time for beaches to recover so interventions must be made to reduce the loss in 

the first instance. 

Fishing has long been an important activity in the economy and livelihoods of TCI. What was previously a 

subsistence sector, or an industry supplying the limited domestic demand has become an important export 

oriented sector, supplying the bulk of visible exports from the country. Lobster and conch processing 

operations offer the single largest sector for the employment of women in South Caicos. Meanwhile, the 

finfish fisheries have remained under-exploited by TC Islanders, since the country has not developed the 

infrastructure to ship chilled fish to the main markets. Finfish such as groupers, snappers and large pelagics 

are consumed locally and are part of the tourism sector’s sports fishery, but these too are under threat. For 

example, over the past decade it has been noted that the size of conch landed has decreased and greater 

fishing effort must be exerted; most conch now come from more distant and deeper waters, suggesting 

that stocks are declining. As a result reef fish are now experiencing greater fishing pressure as fishers look 

for alternatives to support their livelihood. 

Marine turtles have been fished from TCI’s waters for centuries but have been considered of little 

economic importance since only a few fishermen regularly target turtles to satisfy local demand; otherwise 

most turtles are caught opportunistically. Considering that these turtles are part of a global stock, and are 

threatened species facing further pressure due to loss of habitat and climate change impacts, the TCI 

Government needs to enforce measures which seek to improve the management of the country’s 

traditional turtle fishery with urgency. 

Of serious concern are TCI’s Pine forests even though they adapted to arid conditions. Projected climate 

changes indicate that Pine yards may be drastically reduced or even lost to reduced rainfall, SLR and 

extreme cyclonic events. This translates to the displacement and/or loss habitats and subsequently plant 

and animal species. Pine yards are already under threat from an invasive insect so are inherently more 

vulnerable to any further stresses. The Royal Botanical Gardens Kew’s specialists estimate that extinction of 

the Yellow Pine in highly likely within the following decade if conditions are allowed to remain as they are. 

SLR and hurricanes are expected to pose the greatest climate change threat to mangroves. Hurricane Ike in 

2008 caused damage to several mangrove sites including those of South Creek National Park located in 

Grand Turk. Observed and projected increases in SSTs indicate potential for continuing increases in 

hurricane activity, and model projections indicate that this may occur through increases in intensity of 

events, including increases in near storm rainfalls and peak winds. 

TCI has generally demonstrated a positive response towards addressing biodiversity issues through 

environmental policies that are geared towards sustainable natural resource use and integration of tourism 

and other economic sectors into environmental management. The Department of Environment and Coastal 

Resources has undertaken the task of standardising national vegetation classification and mapping 

xxxv

terrestrial habitats for the purposes of addressing the inconsistencies in existing habitat classifications and 

more effective management. 

Although there is no formal integration of Government Departments, they routinely work together, 

particularly when addressing large-scale developments. Several policies under the DECR focus on the 

marine and coastal environment and promote an integrated approach to resource management. 

Scrublands comprise the majority of terrestrial vegetation and are considered as an extension of the coastal 

ecosystem thus management of the bushes is integrated into the coastal management framework. 

Protected areas are one of the management tools that TCI has been using as a conservation measure. 

There are now 34 Protected Areas with 19 protecting marine or coral reef resources yet less than 1% of 

coral reefs are protected within these MPAs. Despite these initiatives the DECR is still constrained by a 

limited staff and finances. 

Recommendations coming out of the Climate Change Green Paper include the maintenance and 

restoration of mangroves, upland wetlands and forests, and education of fisher folk about best practices 

and the need to enhance resilience of coral reefs for ensuring their livelihood, transplanting coral reefs 

from resilient ecological zones. Additionally, strengthening protected area networks is one way of adopting 

an ecosystem-based approach to adaptation, i.e. one that integrates the use of biodiversity and ecosystem 

services into an overall strategy to help people adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This 

strategy should: 

establish a more effective fish sanctuary and MPA management and enforcement system for 

coastal communities; 

enhance the capacity of resource managers and users to be more resilient to climate change; and 

establish a sustainable finance mechanism for supporting fish sanctuary and MPA management. 

The strategy should increase the involvement of the tourism sector (various hotels, the Turks and Caicos 

Hotel and Tourism Association) in collaboration with the Department for the Environment and Coastal 

Resources in supporting community-based MPAs, as well as provide opportunities for alternative 

livelihoods and technologies for public education. 

It is also important to educate tourists who interact with TCI’s biodiversity and films can be effective tools 

in influencing human behaviour. Short videos encouraging visitors to be more conscious of their impacts on 

the fragile ecosystems of the islands can be shown during in-bound international flights. The films should 

focus on positive actions that visitors can take to minimise negative impacts on the environment by 

decreasing energy and water consumption and wastage, and by taking necessary precautions during 

marine based recreation (diving, snorkelling, boating). The films should be geared towards showing viewers 

how their vacation experience will be enhanced if they use environmentally friendly practices. 

Conclusion 

The Turks & Caicos Islands has a strong dependence on the tourism industry and the many natural assets 

that enable tourism to be successful. Terrestrial and marine ecosystems and water resources are already 

facing serious pressures from increasing development and poor land use practices and climate change is 

exacerbating these impacts. It is evident that the Government of TCI is committed to adapting to climate 

change. Many policies and plans for action are in place, but serious financial resource shortages along with 

limited technical capacities hinder the successful adaptation efforts across most government ministries and 

other stakeholder groups. 

xxxvi

The CCCRA explored recent and future changes in climate in TCI using a combination of observations and 

climate model projections. Despite the limitations that exist with regards to climate modelling and the 

attribution of present conditions to climate change, this information provides very useful indications of the 

changes in the characteristics of climate and impacts on socio-economic sectors. Consequently, decision 

makers should adopt a precautionary approach and ensure that measures are taken to increase the 

resilience of economies, businesses and communities to climate related hazards. 

Including the Turks & Caicos Islands, the CARIBSAVE Climate Change Risk Atlas has worked with 15 

countries, a multitude of stakeholders and a wide variety of sectors across the Caribbean. As a result, in 

addition to the crucial national stakeholder sectoral analyses and practical strategy development the 

CCCRA provides robust and meaningful cross-regional comparisons in communities and sectors which 

leading to the identification of effective actions, skills and knowledge transfer, lessons learnt and the 

opportunities for increased future resilience and sustainability. 

xxxvii

1. GLOBAL AND REGIONAL CONTEXT 

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), published in 2007, 

provides undisputable evidence that human activities are the major reason for the rise in greenhouse gas 

emissions and changes in the global climate system (IPCC, Summary for Policymakers. , 2007a). Notably, 

climate change is ongoing, with “observational evidence from all continents and oceans … that many 

natural systems are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases” (IPCC, 

2007b, p. 8). Observed and projected climate change will in turn affect socio-economic development 

(Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009; Stern, 2006) with some 300,000 deaths per year currently being 

attributed to climate change (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). Mitigation (to reduce the speed at which 

the global climate changes) as well as adaptation (to cope with changes that are inevitable) are thus of 

great importance (Parry, et al., 2009). 

The IPCC (IPCC, 2007a, p. 5) notes that “warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as it is now evident 

from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow 

and ice and rising global average sea level”. Climate change has started to affect many natural systems, 

including hydrological systems (increased runoff and earlier spring peak discharge, warming of lakes and 

rivers affecting thermal structure and water quality), terrestrial ecosystems (earlier spring events including 

leaf-unfolding, bird migration and egg-laying, biodiversity decline, and pole ward and upward shifts in the 

ranges of plants and animal species), as well as marine systems (rising water temperatures, changes in ice 

cover, salinity, acidification, oxygen levels and circulation, affecting shifts in the ranges and changes of 

algae, plankton and fish abundance). 

The IPCC (IPCC, 2007b) also notes that small islands are particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate 

change, including sea-level rise and extreme events. Deterioration in coastal conditions is expected to 

affect fisheries and tourism, with sea-level rise being “expected to exacerbate inundation, storm surge, 

erosion and other coastal hazards, threatening vital infrastructure, settlements and facilities that support 

the livelihood of island communities” (IPCC, 2007b, p. 15). Climate change is projected to reduce water 

resources in the Caribbean to a point where these become insufficient to meet demand, at least in periods 

with low rainfalls (IPCC, 2007b). Together, these changes are projected to severely affect socio-economic 

development and well-being in the world (Stern, 2006), with the number of climate change related deaths 

expected to rise to 500,000 per year globally by 2020 (Global Humanitarian Forum, 2009). However, not all 

regions are equally vulnerable to climate change. The Caribbean needs to be seen as one of the most 

vulnerable regions, due to their relative affectedness by climate change, but also in terms of their capacity 

to adapt (Bueno, Herzfeld, Stanton, & Ackerman, 2008). This should be seen in the light of (Dulal, Shah, & 

Ahmad, 2009, p. 371) conclusion that: 

If the Caribbean countries fail to adapt, they are likely to take direct and substantial 

economic hits to their most important industry sectors such as tourism, which depends 

on the attractiveness of their natural coastal environments, and agriculture (including 

fisheries), which are highly climate sensitive sectors. By no incidence, these two sectors 

are the highest contributors to employment in the majority of these countries and 

significant losses or economic downturn attendant to inability to adapt to climate 

change will not increase unemployment but have potentially debilitating social and 

cultural consequences to communities. 

Climate change has, since the publication of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s 4 th 

Assessment Report (IPCC, 2007b), been high on the global political agenda. The most recent UN Conference 

1

of Parties (COP) in Mexico in December 2010 agreed that increases in temperature should be stabilised at a 

maximum of 2°C by 2100. Notably, the 39 member states of the Alliance of Small Island States have called 

in a recent Declaration to the United Nations for a new climate change agreement that would ensure global 

warming to be kept at a maximum of 1.5°C; (AOSIS, 2009). 

The Ministry of Environment and District Administration in collaboration with the Caribbean Community 

Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) and the United Kingdom Department for International Development (DFID) 

are developing a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan and a Climate Change Public 

Education and Outreach Strategy. As part of that project a Green Paper has been produced that is intended 

to act as a point of discussion before a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Action Plan is 

developed. The Paper clearly acknowledged the need to adapt to the potential impacts of climate change in 

the islands and identifies possible strategies to manage the risks (Climate Change Committee, 2011). The 

importance of developing such a plan is also highlighted in the National Socio-economic and Development 

Framework (Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands, 2008). 

So far, the European Union is the only region in the world with a legally binding target for emission 

reductions, imposed on the largest polluters. Some individual countries are taking action, such as the 

Australian Government’s comprehensive long-term plan for tackling climate change and securing a clean 

energy future. The plan outlines the existing policies already underway to address climate change and cut 

carbon pollution and introduces several critical new initiatives and has four pillars: a carbon price; 

renewable energy; energy efficiency; and action on land. The nations of the Caribbean Community 

(CARICOM) 1 contribute less than 1% to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (approximately. 0.33% 2 ) 

(World Resource Institute, 2008), yet these countries are expected to be among the earliest and most 

severely impacted by climate change in the coming decades, and are least able to adapt to climate change 

impacts (Nurse et al., 2009). 

An analysis of the vulnerability of CARICOM nations to sea level rise (SLR) and associated storm surge by 

The CARIBSAVE Partnership in 2010 found that large areas of the Caribbean coast are highly susceptible to 

erosion, and beaches have experienced accelerated erosion in recent decades. It is estimated that with a 

1 m SLR and a conservative estimate of associated erosion, 49% of the major tourism resorts in CARICOM 

countries would be damaged or destroyed. Erosion associated with a 2 m SLR (or a high estimate for a 1 m 

SLR), would result in an additional 106 resorts (or 60% of the region’s coastal resorts) being at risk. 

Importantly, the beach assets so critical to tourism would be affected much earlier than the erosion 

damages to tourism infrastructure, affecting property values and the competitiveness of many 

destinations. Beach nesting sites for sea turtles were also at significant risk to beach erosion associated 

with SLR, with 51% significantly affected by erosion from 1 m SLR and 62% by erosion associated with 2 m 

SLR (Simpson, et al., 2010). The Green Paper acknowledges that The Turks and Caicos Islands economy 

relies primarily on tourism and fisheries and the pattern of development is concentrated in the coastal zone 

where impacts from climate change such as stronger intensity and more frequent hurricanes, storm surges, 

sea level rise and flooding will be strongly felt.(Climate Change Committee, 2011) 

In real terms, the threats posed to the region’s development prospects are severe and it is now accepted 

that adaptation will require a sizeable and sustained investment of resources. Over the last decade alone, 

1 Members of CARICOM: Anguilla (Associate), Antigua and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Bermuda (Associate), British 

Virgin Islands (Associate), Cayman Islands (Associate), Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica, Montserrat, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts 

and Nevis, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad and Tobago, Turks and Caicos Islands (Associate). 

2 The Caribbean Islands contribute about 6% of the total emissions from the Latin America and Caribbean Region grouping and the 

Latin America and Caribbean Region is estimated to generate 5.5% of global CO 2 emissions in 2001 (UNEP, 2003). 

2

damages from intense climatic conditions have cost the region in excess of half a trillion US dollars (CCCCC, 

2009). 

1.1. Climate Change Impacts on Tourism 

Direct and indirect climatic impacts: The Caribbean’s tourism resources, the primary one being the climate 

itself, are all climate sensitive. When beaches and other natural resources undergo negatives changes as a 

result of climate and meteorological events, this can affect the appeal of a destination – particularly if these 

systems are slow to recover. Further, studies indicate that a shift of attractive climatic conditions for 

tourism towards higher latitudes and altitudes is very likely as a result of climate change. Projected 

increases in the frequency or magnitude of certain weather and climate extremes (e.g. heat waves, 

droughts, floods, tropical cyclones) as a result of projected climate change will affect the tourism industry 

through increased infrastructure damage, additional emergency preparedness requirements, higher 

operating expenses (e.g. insurance, backup water and power systems, and evacuations), and business 

interruptions (Simpson, Gossling, & Scott, 2008). 

In contrast to the varied impacts of a changed climate on tourism, the indirect effects of climate-induced 

environmental change are likely to be largely negative. 

Impacts of mitigation policies on tourist mobility: Scientifically, there is general consensus that ‘serious’ 

climate policy will be paramount in the transformation of tourism towards becoming climatically 

sustainable, as significant technological innovation and behavioural change demand strong regulatory 

environments (e.g. Barr et al, 2010; Bows, Anderson, & Footitt, 2009; Hickman & Banister, 2007; Giddens, 

2009). As outlined by Scott, Peeters, & Gössling (2010), “serious” would include the endorsement of 

national and international mitigation policies by tourism stakeholders, a global closed emission trading 

scheme for aviation and shipping, the introduction of significant and constantly rising carbon taxes on fossil 

fuels, incentives for low-carbon technologies and transport infrastructure, and ultimately, the development 

of a vision for a fundamentally different global tourism economy. The Caribbean is likely to be a casualty of 

international mitigation policies that discourage long-haul travel. 

Pentelow and Scott (2010) concluded that a combination of low carbon price and low oil price would have 

very little impact on arrivals growth to the Caribbean region through to 2020, with arrivals 1.28% to 1.84% 

lower than in the business as usual (BAU) scenario (the range attributed to the price elasticities chosen). 

The impact of a high carbon price and high oil price scenario was more substantive, with arrivals 2.97% to 

4.29% lower than the 2020 BAU scenario depending on the price elasticity value used. The study concluded: 

It is important to emphasize that the number of arrivals to the region would still be 

projected to grow from between 19.7 million to 19.9 million in 2010 to a range of 30.1 

million to 31.0 million in 2020 (Pentelow & Scott, 2010). 

Indirect societal change impacts: Climate change is believed to pose a risk to future economic growth of 

some nations, particularly for those where losses and damages are comparable to a country’s GDP. This 

could reduce the means and incentive for long-haul travel and have negative implications for anticipated 

future growth in this sector in the Caribbean. Climate change associated security risks have been identified 

in a number of regions where tourism is highly important to local-national economies (e.g. Stern, 2006; 

Barnett & Adger, 2007; German Advisory Council, 2007; Simpson, Gossling, & Scott, 2008). International 

tourists are averse to political instability and social unrest, and negative tourism-demand repercussions for 

climate change security hotspots, many of which are believed to be in developing nations, are already 

evident (Hall, Waugh, Haine, Robbins, & Khatiwala, 2004). 

3

The Green Paper on Climate Change has identified a number of adaptation strategies for the tourism 

sector: 

Carry out vulnerability studies and cost-benefit analyses incorporating the findings into tourism 

planning and decision making tools and processes at a regional, destination and enterprise level. 

Establish best-practice guidelines for sustainable tourism. 

Provide the tourism industry with current information on climate change policy highlighting where 

there is the opportunity for the public to provide input. 

Encourage the tourism industry to reduce energy use and conserve water resources. 

Enforce and improve existing laws concerning set-backs for coastal development. 

Build eco-friendly designs and revise and upgrade building codes and guidelines. 

Adopt greener technologies at tourism facilities. 

Obtain Green Globe, Green Key and Green Hotel certification (Climate Change Committee, 2011) 

4

2. NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES 

2.1. Geography and climate 

The Turks and Caicos Islands are essentially two groups of islands separated by a deep water channel that is 

22 miles wide. They are found to the north of Haiti and south-east of The Bahamas and the capital is 

Cockburn Town, found on Grand Turk to the east (BCQS International, 2010; Kairi Consultants Ltd, 2000). 

There are 40 different islands and cays that make up the Turks and Caicos Islands and only 8 are 

inhabited(Turks and Caicos Tourist Board, n.d.). There are two values widely reported for the country’s land 

area, 948 km 2 and 417 km 2 . Although no definitive source could be found that explains the difference in 

these numbers it is believed that the smaller number relates to actual land area and the larger number 

includes marshes and possibly wetlands. 

The Turks Islands lie to the east of the deep water channel and consist of two inhabited islands, Grand Turk 

and Salt Cay, and six uninhabited cays (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). Grand Turk is 7 miles long and 1.5 

miles wide(Grand Turk Cruise Center, 2011). The Caicos Islands form a bank and consist of six islands, four 

of which are inhabited. The largest of all the islands is Middle Caicos and each island in the chain is 

separated from one another by shallow passages (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

The islands are all limestone platforms and therefore low-lying, with the highest point being Flamingo Hill 

on the East Caicos island at 48 m above sea-level (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a; Lime Turks & Caicos 

Islands, 2011). There are extensive sandy beaches and shallow water with coral formations (Kairi 

Consultants Limited, 2000a) as well as extensive mangroves and marshes. Grand Turk has a well-earned 

reputation as one of the finest diving destinations in the world with an outstanding protected coral reef 

that drops to 7,000 feet along the west side of the island(Grand Turk Cruise Center, 2011). 

The Turks and Caicos Islands have several species of interest that include rare, threatened, endangered and 

endemic species as well as significant populations of flora and fauna, range-restricted species and rare 

habitat types (SWA Ltd., Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc., EDSA, 2010). A habitat mapping 

exercise has taken place recently under the aegis of the Department of Environment and Coastal Resources 

that shows the diversity of ecosystems that exist in the islands. The mapping found that 47% of the area 

surveyed (430 km 2 ) was estuarine, 22% palustrine (the large land areas at or just above sea level that are 

flooded with seasonal rains and provide critical habitat for waterfowl species), 16% upland, 10% coastal 

and 6% human altered landscapes (SWA Ltd., Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc., EDSA, 2010). 

According to the Tourist Board the Middle and North Caicos represent the best of the environment, with 

lush green woodlands, the biggest cave network in the Caribbean on Middle Caicos, cottage pond and 

flamingo pond in North Caicos and a vast range of plant life and birdlife. South Caicos is the centre for 

fishing, with lobster and conch exports, the historic Cockburn harbour and the natural phenomenon of the 

boiling hole (Turks and Caicos Tourist Board, n.d.). 

Other than fishing there is little land available that is suitable for agriculture. The islands receive limited 

rainfall and are occasionally stricken by drought. The Caicoses receive more rainfall than the Turks Islands 

and can support agriculture that is not possible in the Turk (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

The Turks and Caicos Islands have no national meteorological service and receive their forecasts and 

warnings through the Bahamas Meteorology Department. As such there is no long-term climate data for 

the Islands (Climate Change Committee, 2011). In the absence of site specific climatology from a national 

meteorological office, the gridded data from the climate modelling is presented here to describe the 

5

climate of the Turks and Caicos, supported by generic descriptions found in the literature. The climate 

modelling (see Section 3) uses gridded global or regional datasets of observed weather, with a grid 

resolution of 0.5° or greater. The data comes from weather stations across the globe or records of sea 

surface temperature in marine areas from voluntary observation ships that is then averaged within each 

grid cell. Coverage can therefore be sparse in less populated areas or away from shipping 

lanes(McSweeney, New, & Lizcano, n.d.). 

According to this data the annual mean temperature is 26.3°C with the warmer months from June to 

August at 27.9°C and cooler months between December and February at 24.6°C. This is considerably lower 

than the temperatures reported by the Cruise Center on Grand Turk which gives average temperatures of 

29-32°C between June and October, sometimes reaching 35°C, and 27-29°C between November and May 

(Grand Turk Cruise Center, 2011). The Country Poverty Assessment reported temperatures lower than the 

gridded dataset for winter temperatures (21°C) and comparable values for the summer temperatures (over 

27°C) (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

Rainfall in the gridded datasets shows the annual average as 77.1 mm per month, with large inter-annual 

variability and the driest months between December and February (52.9 mm per month). Wind speed is 

typically 7 m/s with relative humidity at 78.9%. The islands have been impacted by a number of intense 

hurricane systems, most recently in August 2011 by Hurricane Irene. Other systems of note include 

Hurricanes Hanna and Ike in 2008, Frances in 2004, Kate in 1985, Donna in 1960 (Hurricane City, n.d.). 

2.2. Socio-economic profile 

According to the Caribbean Development Bank, in 2006 the Turks and Caicos Islands, a British Overseas 

Territory, were classified as a Less Developed Country (LDC) (CDB, 2006). The last census was held in 2001 

and at that time there were 19,886 people with an almost even gender mix and 52% were Belongers (born 

to at least one parent who has Belonger status). The majority (65%) lived on Providenciales and 20% on 

Grand Turk (DEPS, 2009). A number of estimations are available for more recent total population statistics, 

but with considerable variation from 30,600 in mid-2005 (CDB, 2006) to 36,605 in 2008 (DEPS, 2009). The 

ECLAC estimate for 2010 is 33,000 (ECLAC, 2010a). An updated census is due to take place this year, but 

given the current political situation in the country there are no plans to undertake a census at this time. 

Table 2.2.1 shows that GDP in the Turks & Caicos Islands has grown steadily between 2002 and 2007. Data 

for more recent years was not easily available, but it is reported that following the damage inflicted by 

Hurricane Ike in 2008 and the global recession, the country faces an economic crisis (Government of the 

Turks and Caicos Islands , n.d.; RLB, 2010). 

6

Table 2.2.1: Gross Domestic Product for the Turks & Caicos Islands 2000-2010 

YEAR Gross Domestic 

Product 

In Constant 2000 

Market Prices 

US $ (millions) 

Growth rate 

2000 319.4 

2001 341.9 7% 

2002 345.9 1% 

2003 378.2 9% 

2004 421.3 11% 

2005 481.9 14% 

2006 568.1 18% 

2007 

(prelim) 

632.1 11% 


The economy of the country was initially based on the salt industry in Grand Turk, Salt Cay and South Caicos 

and the industry remained the main economic activity of the Turks Islands until the 1960s when it fully 

collapsed leaving fishing as the main export sector. The diversification seen today was initiated by private 

investment in tourism infrastructure in Providenciales (see Section 2.3) and with the emergence of Offshore 

Financial Services (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). US bases and a tracking station on Grand Turk also 

assisted the economy, but these were closed in 1980 and 1983 respectively with a negative impact on the 

economy and on employment. In the 1980s, fishing (conch and lobster in particular) provided a boost to 

export earnings. 

Budgetary support from the British Government through Grant-Aid (established in the 1950s) has been 

discontinued, and assistance now comes mainly in respect of development aid, with the Turks and Caicos 

currently benefitting from both the Basic Needs Trust Fund and the Special Development Fund (SDF) of the 

Caribbean Development Bank (Hughes, 2011; Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). Table 2.2.2 provides a 

more recent breakdown of the sectors contributing to GDP and the evolution of some sectors is presented 

graphically in Figure 2.2.1. 

7

Table 2.2.2: Contribution to GDP by sector (US $ millions, constant 2000 prices) 

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 

prelim 

Agriculture 0.925 0.831 0.776 1.027 1.075 

Fishing 3.739 4.317 4.675 4.514 4.649 

Mining and quarrying 2.037 2.611 3.25 4.833 5.795 

Manufacturing 9.173 9.322 9.604 9.72 10.284 

Utilities 15.159 19.135 22.737 24.108 25.269 

Construction 23.2 24.8 22.9 25.5 32.6 40.6 60.4 72.4 

Wholesale & retail 15.068 17.512 20.081 24.276 26.587 

Hotels & restaurants 98.9 108.1 100 106.7 113.6 130.8 161.3 184.8 

Transport, storage & 

communication 

33.8 35.6 36.3 36.5 42.8 48.2 50.3 52.5 

Financial intermediation 26.9 27.8 29.1 32.2 40.1 47.6 61.7 69.8 

Real estate, renting & 

business 

37.9 39.9 40.6 41.4 42.4 44.9 47.9 49.9 


Percentage 

35 

30 

25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 

prelim 

Figure 2.2.1: Percentage contribution to GDP 

The contribution and importance of the key sector, tourism, is discussed in greater detail in Section 2.3. 

However, the boom in tourism has driven rapid growth in construction, mostly centred on Providenciales 

(Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). It can be seen in Table 2.2.2 that as the contribution from hotels and 

restaurants declines in 2002, so too does the contribution from construction, before both sectors grow 

from 2003 onwards. It is reported that following the devastation of Hurricanes Hanna and Ike in 2008 a 

number of building sites were left abandoned and the economic recession also led to a decrease in the 

number of second home buyers and limited spending on infrastructure. Some recent projects have been 

undertaken, including two hospitals in 2010 in Grand Turk and Providenciales. A number of tourism related 

projects including proposals to expand the runway and terminal in Providenciales, are also on the horizon 

and are expanded in Section 2.3 (RLB, 2010; BCQS International, 2010). It should be noted that although 

8 

Year 

Manufacturing Construction 

Wholesale & retail Hotels & restaurants 

Financial intermediation Real estate, renting & business 

Agriculture Fishing

Figure 2.2.1 shows a decline in percentage contribution from real estate, renting and business, the actual 

output over the period shows steady growth. 

There are some concerns about the level of development being seen in some islands and the methods of 

construction being used. The mapping report funded by the Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) 

notes that the islands are experiencing rapid development and face the problem of balancing economic 

growth through tourism with environmental impact to areas that until recently were unspoiled, see Section 

4.5 (SWA Ltd., Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc., EDSA, 2010). North Caicos provides a useful 

example of this conflict since it has been identified by the Tourist Board as one of the best islands for 

environmental attractions, but at the same time is touted as an up and coming resort destination with 

several new projects under development (Turks and Caicos Tourist Board, n.d.). A letter to the TCI Journal 

raises concerns about dredging taking place along the north shore of Providenciales to facilitate barges 

working in the North Caicos. The point is made that if the reefs die for the sake of short-term profit there 

will be fewer visitors in the long term. The author also refers to the problem of over-raking on beaches 

which makes the sand more vulnerable to erosion on a high tide, see Section 4.6 (Name withheld, 2011). 

Interestingly the Development Framework (Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands, 2008) emphasizes 

sustainable development and the importance of the natural resources, so the issue of planning controls 

may need further efforts in the future; a point that is acknowledged in the same document. 

The Financial intermediation sector has also shown considerable growth over the period 2000-2007, Table 

2.2.2, with the economy benefitting from the annual licence or registration fees paid by the offshore 

companies (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). According to the Tourist Board, the Turks & Caicos is quickly 

becoming a leading international investment centre given the islands are a “zero tax” jurisdiction and 

therefore have no taxes on income, capital gains, corporate profits, inheritance or estates (Turks and Caicos 

Tourist Board, n.d.). The Governments of the OECD countries have been seeking to eliminate such tax 

havens, which are seen as allowing the super-rich to avoid making their social contribution by potentially 

creating loopholes in legislation (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). It was acknowledged that given the 

dependence on the finance sector and the potential for abolition of tax haven status sometime in the 

future, the UK Government must help with the diversification of the economy including the necessary reskilling 

of inhabitants(House of Lords, 2011). A number of medium-term objectives and actions are outlined 

in the Development Framework for diversifying the economy (Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands, 

2008). 

Fishing and agriculture have maintained their output in the period shown in Table 2.2.2, but the relative 

contribution to the overall economy is small. Fishing is the dominant sector in South Caicos based around 

the export of lobster and conch; the latter is subject to the Convention on International Trade in 

Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) under which TCI is allocated a quota of 600,000 lbs of 

conch per annum (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). The Tourist Board highlights the Caicos Conch farm, 

since it is reportedly the only commercial conch farm in the world (Turks and Caicos Tourist Board, n.d.; 

BBC, 2010). Fishing is one area where tourism provides a backward link to the rest of the economy, with 

fish for the tourist sector provided largely by the domestic catch. There is untapped potential for 

agriculture in North Caicos because of the lack of infrastructure to permit linkages with the larger markets 

in other islands (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

Livelihoods, poverty and population 

The variable economic fortune of the Turks and Caicos Islands has led to an interesting pattern of 

emigration and movement between islands. Following the collapse of the salt industry a large number of 

Islanders emigrated to The Bahamas and as the tourism industry evolved in Providenciales there has been a 

9

migration from Salt Cay and other islands with limited employment opportunities. Between 1980 and 1990, 

Providenciales experienced a massive increase in population, and became the largest population centre, 

displacing Grand Turk. This growth is a result of both internal migration and more significantly immigration 

from outside the country. In 1990, Haitians were the largest single group on Providenciales constituting 

38% of that island’s population (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). In 2001, Haitians made up 25% of the 

total population of Turks and Caicos and in 2006 the estimated population of Providenciales was 73% of the 

total and only 27% of them were Belongers (DEPS, 2009). The tightening of immigration policy to the USA 

and the inability to adequately monitor the lengthy coastline means that boats are able to land undetected 

in the Turks and Caicos (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

The cycle of internal migration can result in unbalanced development, especially where transportation and 

communication between islands is limited. Unless there is substantial investment in the other islands 

people will continue to move to Providenciales. As the population of the other islands continues to dwindle 

it becomes even more difficult to provide basic services to such small numbers and the desire to leave 

increases further (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

The unemployment rate in the country had varied from 12.4% in 1990, 9.7% in 2001 and 5.4% in 2007 (Kairi 

Consultants Limited, 2000a; DEPS, 2009; CDB, 2006). These statistics are for the boom years and it is 

anticipated that current unemployment will be considerably higher. The 2000 Country Poverty Assessment 

(CPA) found that in the poorest 20% of the population the unemployment rate was 21% and in the 

wealthiest 20% the rate was 5.7% with higher rates for women in all but the second quintile (Kairi 

Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

Table 2.2.3: Employed population by industry, 2007 

Industry Number % 

Total 19,587 

Construction 4,306 21.98 

Hotels and restaurants 4,065 20.75 

Real estate, renting & business 2,384 12.17 

Public admin, defence, social security 2,298 11.73 

Wholesale & retail and repair 1,729 8.83 

Other services 1,190 6.08 

Transport storage & communications 846 4.32 

Education, health and social work 771 3.94 

Financial intermediation 515 2.63 

Private households 376 1.92 

Manufacturing 246 1.26 

Utilities 192 0.98 

Fishing 126 0.64 

Agriculture 111 0.57 

Mining & quarrying 16 0.08 

10 

(Source: DEPS, 2009) 

Table 2.2.3 shows that the two largest employers in 2007 were construction and hotels and restaurants. In 

the CPA it was noted that the high level positions in the financial sector were typically held by expatriates, 

although there had been some growth in the number of Islanders employed in the industry. In 1999, fishing 

was the main employer in South Caicos with processing operations the main source of employment for 

women. However, the industry cannot expand much further without endangering its sustainability. There is

oom for expansion of the fin fishery in the country and agriculture in North Caicos as long as the necessary 

infrastructure is put in place. Government employment is especially important to Grand Turk, the seat of 

administration. Since the size of the public sector is determined by growth in revenues collected from the 

private sector, employment opportunities in Grand Turk are to some extent reliant on growth in 

Providenciales (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

The CPA surveys were carried out in first half of 1999 and the Survey of Living Conditions revealed that 26% 

of all individuals in TCI were poor and 3.2% were indigent. Therefore almost all individuals in the country 

are able to satisfy their basic nutritional requirements. Providenciales was the only island that had fewer 

poor per capita (only 15.3% of the island population was poor), thereby explaining the continuing exodus to 

the island. At the time Haitians made up 30% of the population, but 38% of those living under the poverty 

line. Haitians have filled unskilled positions and expatriates have filled higher level positions leaving 

Islanders marginalized between the two groups (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). The latest Development 

Framework has placed the empowerment of TC Islanders very much at the forefront: 

TCIslanders must remain first as the subject of all development, and cease being incidental. Their 

goals, their needs and the benefits to themselves, and the generations following, now command 

primacy of place. (Source: Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands, 2008) 

The gap between rich and poor is seen in construction costs where typically the higher the per capita GDP, 

the higher the construction cost and therefore the greater the value on completion. In Turks and Caicos, 

per capita GDP is the lowest and construction costs are amongst the highest suggesting that a high income 

minority is involved in the development and subsequent sale of property (BCQS International, 2010). There 

is also a general perception that the banking system is not supportive of the TC Islander business person 

and it is alleged that it is far easier for someone from the North Atlantic to secure financing than locals. The 

result is “that the growth of the economy has not produced an equitable share in the benefits between 

foreign and domestic business. The large number of instances cited suggests that these are not mere 

anecdotes. Even if the perception were false, it exists nevertheless” (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

2.3. Importance of tourism to the national economy 

Caribbean tourism is based on the natural environment, and the region’s countries are known primarily as 

beach destinations. The tourism product therefore depends on favourable weather conditions as well as on 

an attractive and healthy natural environment, particularly in the coastal zone. Both of these are 

threatened by climate change. The Caribbean is the most tourism-dependent region in the world with few 

options to develop alternative economic sectors and is one of the most vulnerable regions in the world to 

the impacts of climate change including sea level rise, coastal erosion, flooding, biodiversity loss and 

impacts on human health. 

The development of tourism began in 1967 when the Executive Council agreed to lease 4,000 acres in 

Providenciales to Provident Ltd, with the option to outright purchase, on the completion of certain 

development projects (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). Section 2.2 has already shown that hotels and 

restaurants alone have contributed close to 30% of GDP in the period 2000-2007 and are responsible for 

21% of employment in 2007. The contribution of tourism as a whole was reported to be between 29 and 

40% of GDP between 1995 and 2005 (CDB, 2006). With no income tax or property tax the 9% 

accommodation tax in hotels and guesthouses makes a significant contribution to Government Revenue 

with some of the proceeds (1%) earmarked for the National Trust and the Management of the National 

Parks (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

11

Table 2.3.1: Visitor arrivals to Turks & Caicos Islands 2000-2010 

Year Stopovers Cruise Ship Cruise Ship calls Expenditure (US 

Passengers 

$ million) 

2000 151.372 

2001 165.8 260.1 

2002 154.961 2,411 268.1 

2003 164.1 49,734 275.6 

2004 173.081 17,052 14 317.9 

2005 176.130 355.1 

2006 248.343 295,000 136 

2007 

2008 

264.887 379,936 185 304.0 

2009 255,000 

2010 622,720 248 

(Source: BCQS International, 2010; CDB, 2006; Caribbean Tourism 

Organisation, n.d.; Grand Turk Cruise Center, 2011; DEPS, 2009) 

Table 2.3.1 shows the statistics for tourist arrivals and expenditure over the last decade. It should be noted 

that the most comprehensive data source was the Department of Economic Planning and Statistics (DEPS, 

2009), which covers 2000-2007 only. According to Kairi Consultants Limited (2000a) the tourism sector 

displayed near exponential growth since the mid-1980s based on large numbers of visitors from the USA. 

The balance of markets appears to have remained somewhat constant in recent years with data from both 

2006 and 2009 showing that the US accounts for approximately 67% of arrivals, Canada 12%, Europe 10% 

and Other countries the remaining 11% (BCQS International, 2010; Caribbean Tourism Organisation, n.d.). 

Average length of stay has increased from 6.46 nights in 2002 to 7 nights in 2006, which is a valuable 

change as discussed in greater detail in Section 0 (DEPS, 2009). According to the Government, the drop in 

revenue in the second quarter of 2009 is partly a result of a drop in tourist arrivals (Government of the 

Turks and Caicos Islands , n.d.), but the tourist board report that arrivals for the first half of 2010 were up 

considerably, with long stay and cruise arrivals showing a 25% increase over the same period in 2009 (Turks 

and Caicos Tourist Board, n.d.). In 2011, the Grand Turk Cruise Center expects to host approximately 300 

ship calls from 16 different brands totalling nearly 640,000 passengers (Grand Turk Cruise Center, 2011). It 

is expected that the economy will look to recover through tourism and related industries (BCQS 

International, 2010). 

It was felt that Providenciales had not yet reached saturation in 2000 with the possibility to increase the 

number of hotel rooms to 2,000 (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). This was exceeded in 2006, and in 2007 

the total rooms in Providenciales was 2,288, with total rooms in Turks and Caicos at 2,632 (Caribbean 

Tourism Organisation, n.d.; DEPS, 2009). In 2007 only 4% of rooms were on Grand Turk, 3% on North Caicos 

and 2% on Parrot Cay (DEPS, 2009). Parrot Cay and Pine Cay are privately owned islands with exclusive 

resorts and on Grand Turk there is a 14-acre Cruise Center offering swimming, shopping and other 

entertainment with space for 2 ships (Grand Turk Cruise Center, 2011; Turks and Caicos Tourist Board, n.d.). 

There are a number of additional developments planned across the islands. In Grand Turk a new welcome 

centre is to be built in the historic downtown area to provide a greater variety of shopping and dining 

experiences and spur additional economic development. The project is funded by Carnival Corporation & 

plc. and construction is scheduled to be finished by the end of 2011(Grand Turk Cruise Center, 2011). 

Previously uninhabited West Caicos is the site of a future Ritz Carlton hotel and community, Ambergris Cay 

is the site of the Turks and Caicos Sporting Club, and Dellis Cay the site of Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group 

lifestyle resort (Turks and Caicos Tourist Board, n.d.). 

12

The CPA points out that the all-inclusive resort is the dominant type, which reduces opportunities for 

linkages with other sectors and employment from the wider industry. This is exacerbated by largely foreign 

ownership of the resorts. At the time of writing the CPA was there an official agreement to exercise a 

moratorium on all-inclusives in Providenciales, although they would not be ruled out in other islands(Kairi 

Consultants Limited, 2000a). Clearly the moratorium has not been extended geographically since the 

developments listed above for other islands are all-inclusive. However, there are also recent plans for a 

new resort in Providenciales to be managed by Hyatt Hotels (RLB, 2010). The National Socio-economic and 

Development Framework (Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands, 2008), which is based largely on the 

Revised Tourism Strategic Plan (2006-2010), has determined to expand the sector with TCIslander 

investments in the Family Islands. It also states that growth in Providenciales will continue, but with greater 

sensitivity to avoid over-development and there will be no additional private islands. 

Guest houses, restaurants, water sports and transportation are some of the areas that Islanders can 

establish businesses in the short term. The Development Framework aims to increase capacity in the 

sector, undertake a public education campaign to encourage the public to get more involved in the sector 

and strengthen inter-sectoral relationships in an effort to increase the benefits of the tourism sector across 

the country (Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands, 2008). 

13

3. CLIMATE MODELLING 

3.1. Introduction to Climate Modelling Results 

This summary of climate change information for The Turks and Caicos is derived from a combination of 

recently observed climate data sources, and climate model projections of future scenarios using both a 

General Circulation Model (GCM) ensemble of 15 models and the Regional Climate Model (RCM), PRECIS. 

General Circulation Models (GCMs) provide global simulations of future climate under prescribed 

greenhouse gas scenarios. These models are proficient in simulating the large scale circulation patterns 

and seasonal cycles of the world’s climate, but operate at coarse spatial resolution (grid boxes are typically 

around 2.5 degrees latitude and longitude). This limited resolution hinders the ability for the model to 

represent the finer scale characteristics of a region’s topography, and many of the key climatic processes 

which determine its weather and climate characteristics. Over the Caribbean, this presents significant 

problems as most of the small islands are too small to feature as a land mass at GCM resolution. 

Regional Climate Models (RCMS) are often nested in GCMs to simulate the climate at a finer spatial scale 

over a small region of the world, acting to ‘downscale’ the GCM projections and provide a better physical 

representation of the local climate of that region. RCMs enable the investigation of climate changes at a 

sub-GCM-grid scale, as such changes in the dynamic climate processes at a community scale or tourist 

destination can be projected. 

For each of a number of climate variables (average temperature, average rainfall, average wind speed, 

relative humidity, sea-surface temperature, sunshine hours, extreme temperatures, and extreme rainfalls) 

the results of GCM multi-model projections under three emissions scenarios at the country scale, and RCM 

simulations from a single model driven by two different GCMs for a single emissions scenario at the 

destination scale, are examined. Where available, observational data sources are drawn upon to identify 

changes that are already occurring in the climates at both the country and destination scale. 

In this study, RCM simulations from PRECIS, driven by two different GCMs (ECHAM4 and HadCM3) are used 

to look at projected climate for each country and at the community level. Combining the results of GCM 

and RCM experiments allows the use of high-resolution RCM projections in the context of the uncertainty 

margins that the 15-model GCM ensemble provides. 

The following projections are based on the IPCC standard ‘marker’ scenarios – A2 (a ‘high’ emissions 

scenario), A1B (a medium high scenario, where emissions increase rapidly in the earlier part of the century 

but then plateau in the second half) and B1 (a ‘low’ emissions scenario). Climate projections are examined 

under all three scenarios from the multi-model GCM ensemble, but at present, results from the regional 

models are only available for scenario A2. Table 3.1.1 outlines the time line on which various temperature 

thresholds are projected to be reached under the various scenarios according to the IPCC. 

14

Table 3.1.1: Earliest and latest years respectively at which the threshold temperatures are exceeded in the 41 

projections* 

SRES 

Scenario 

1.5C Threshold 2.0C Threshold 2.5C Threshold 

Earliest Latest Earliest Latest Earliest Latest 

A1B 2023 2050 2038 2070 2053 Later than 2100 

A2 2024 2043 2043 2060 2056 2077 

B1 2027 2073 2049 Later than 2100 2068 Later than 2100 

*NB: In some cases the threshold is not reached prior to 2100, the latest date for which the projections are available. 

The potential changes in hurricane and tropical storm frequency and intensity, sea-level rise (SLR), and 

storm surge incidence are also examined for the Caribbean region. For these variables, existing material in 

the literature is examined in order to assess the potential changes affecting the tourist destinations. 

3.2. Temperature 

Observations from the gridded temperature datasets indicate that mean annual temperatures over Turks 

and Caicos Islands have increased at an average rate of 0.12˚C per decade over the period 1960-2006. The 

observed increases have been more rapid in SON at the rate of 0.15˚C per decade. 

General Circulation Model (GCM) projections from a 15-model ensemble indicate that Turks and Caicos 

Islands can be expected to warm by 0.7˚C to 2.0˚C by the 2050s and 1.0˚C to 3.3˚C by the 2080s, relative to 

the 1970-1999 mean. The range of projections across the 15 models for any one emissions scenario spans 

around 1-1.5˚C. Projected mean temperature increase is similar throughout the year. 

Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections indicate comparable to higher increases in temperatures over 

Turks and Caicos Islands compared to the GCM ensemble median projections for the A2 scenario. In 

particular, RCM simulations driven by ECHAM4 indicate temperature increases that are higher than the 

GCM ensemble median projections in all seasons. RCM projections indicate increases of 2.9˚C and 2.3˚C in 

mean annual temperatures by the 2080s, when driven by the ECHAM4 and HadCM3 respectively, 

compared with GCM ensemble projections of 2.1-3.3˚C for that period. Temperature increases in JJA and 

SON as projected by the RCM simulation driven by HadCM3 are lower than the lowest GCM ensemble 

projections. 

The improved spatial resolution in the RCM allows the land mass of the larger Caribbean islands to be 

represented, whilst the region is represented only by ‘ocean’ grid boxes at GCM resolution. Land surfaces 

warm more rapidly than ocean due to their lower capacity to absorb heat energy, and we therefore see 

more rapid warming over Turks and Caicos Islands in RCM projections than in GCMs. 

15

Table 3.2.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature for Turks and Caicos Islands 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

Turks and Caicos Islands: Country Scale Changes in Temperature 

Observed 

Trend 

1960- 

2006 

Projected changes by Projected changes by Projected changes by 

the 2020s 

the 2050s 

the 2080s 

Min Median Max Min Median Max Min Median Max 

(˚C) (change 

in˚C per 

decade) 

Change in ˚C Change in ˚C Change in ˚C 

A2 0.3 0.7 1 0.9 1.5 2 2.1 2.6 3.3 

Annual 26.3 0.12* A1B 0.3 0.8 1.1 1 1.6 1.9 1.5 2.2 2.9 

B1 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.1 1.5 1 1.4 2.1 

A2 0.3 0.7 1 0.8 1.4 1.9 1.9 2.6 3.3 

DJF 24.6 0.14* A1B 0.3 0.7 1.2 1 1.4 1.9 1.4 2.2 2.9 

B1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.2 1.5 0.9 1.5 2.1 

A2 0.2 0.7 1 0.7 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.4 3.2 

MAM 25.4 0.09* A1B 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.3 2 2.9 

B1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.3 1.8 

A2 0.3 0.7 1 0.9 1.5 2.2 2.1 2.6 3.5 

JJA 27.9 0.14* A1B 0.3 0.8 1.1 1 1.6 2 1.4 2.2 2.9 

B1 0.2 0.6 1 0.9 1.1 1.8 1.1 1.4 2.1 

A2 0.5 0.8 1 1.1 1.6 2 2.3 2.7 3.2 

SON 27.3 0.15* A1B 0.5 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.7 2.1 1.7 2.4 3 

B1 0.5 0.8 1 0.9 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.6 2.3 

Table 3.2.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Turks and Caicos Islands under the A2 scenario 

3.3. Precipitation 

16 

Projected changes by the 2080s 

SRES A2 

Min Median Max 

GCM Ensemble Range 2.1 

Change in ˚C 

2.6 3.3 

Annual RCM (ECHAM4) 

2.9 

RCM (HadCM3) 

2.3 

GCM Ensemble Range 1.9 2.6 3.3 

DJF RCM (ECHAM4) 

2.6 

RCM (HadCM3) 

2.7 


MAM RCM (ECHAM4) 

2.6 

RCM (HadCM3) 

2.4 


JJA RCM (ECHAM4) 

3.1 

RCM (HadCM3) 

2 


SON RCM (ECHAM4) 

3.2 

RCM (HadCM3) 

2.2 

Gridded observations of rainfall over Turks and Caicos Islands do not show statistically significant trends 

over the period 1960-2006. Long-term trends are difficult to identify due to the large inter-annual 

variability in rainfall in Turks and Caicos Islands.

GCM projections of future rainfall for Turks and Caicos Islands span both overall increases and decreases 

with wide variations, but tend towards decreases in more models. Projected rainfall changes in annual 

rainfall range from -29 to +8 mm per month (-63% to +10%) by the 2080s across three emissions scenarios. 

The overall decreases in annual rainfall projected by GCMs occur largely through decreased JJA rainfall, but 

these changes are less consistent between models. 

RCM projections of rainfall for Turks and Caicos Islands are strongly influenced by the driving GCM 

providing boundary conditions. Changes projected by the RCM driven by HadCM3 are generally greater 

than ECHAM4-driven simulations. Driven by ECHAM4, RCM rainfall projections indicate large increases in 

DJF and SON and a decrease in JJA resulting in an increase of 5 mm (2%) in total annual rainfall. Driven by 

HadCM3, RCM projects large decreases in all seasons except DJF resulting in a large decrease in total annual 

rainfall (-44 mm / -35%). 

Table 3.3.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation for Turks and Caicos Islands 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

(mm per 

month) 

Turks and Caicos Islands: Country Scale Changes in Precipitation 

Observed 

Trend 

1960- 

2006 

(change in 

mm per 

decade) 


the 2020s 

the 2050s 

the 2080s 


Change in mm per 

month 

17 


month 


month 

A2 -7 0 3 -20 -3 6 -29 -6 3 

Annual 77.1 0.2 A1B -14 -1 10 -22 -2 9 -22 -5 4 

B1 -14 -3 5 -15 -2 6 -19 -4 8 

A2 -10 0 5 -14 0 20 -13 1 28 

DJF 52.9 -0.3 A1B -6 0 23 -15 0 18 -10 0 18 

B1 -9 0 6 -7 -2 20 -11 1 11 

A2 -12 -1 7 -23 -7 7 -29 -10 1 

MAM 80.8 1.5 A1B -13 1 7 -13 -4 15 -17 -7 1 

B1 -11 -3 2 -12 -3 16 -15 -2 12 

A2 -19 -6 5 -34 -10 13 -52 -16 0 

JJA 79 0.4 A1B -26 -8 10 -32 -11 9 -60 -15 2 

B1 -21 -4 21 -22 -6 2 -27 -8 9 

A2 -15 0 22 -23 -2 33 -41 -1 18 

SON 96.3 0.4 A1B -19 -4 25 -29 0 52 -31 1 25 

B1 -18 -4 9 -22 -6 17 -23 -4 22

Table 3.3.2: GCM and RCM projected changes in Turks and Caicos under the A2 scenario 

18 


SRES A2 


GCM Ensemble Range -29 

Change in mm 

-6 3 


5 

RCM (HadCM3) 

-44 

GCM Ensemble Range -13 1 28 


20 

RCM (HadCM3) 

5 

GCM Ensemble Range -29 -10 1 


-2 

RCM (HadCM3) 

-38 



-8 

RCM (HadCM3) 

-68 



12 

RCM (HadCM3) 

-75 

Table 3.3.3: Observed and GCM projected changes in precipitation (%) for Turks and Caicos Islands 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

(mm per 

month) 

Turks and Caicos islands: Country Scale Changes in Precipitation 

Observed 

Trend 

1960- 

2006 

(change in 

% per 

decade) 


the 2020s 

the 2050s 

the 2080s 


% Change % Change % Change 

A2 -21 0 3 -41 -4 7 -63 -8 5 

Annual 77.1 0.3 A1B -29 -1 20 -45 -3 9 -48 -7 8 

B1 -28 -4 4 -31 -2 5 -39 -5 10 

A2 -16 -1 14 -24 0 30 -34 1 36 

DJF 52.9 -0.5 A1B -29 1 41 -39 0 27 -27 0 46 

B1 -23 0 12 -22 -3 21 -30 2 12 

A2 -18 -2 16 -51 -12 27 -54 -24 14 

MAM 80.8 1.8 A1B -34 3 26 -36 -8 18 -45 -15 4 

B1 -26 -8 5 -32 -7 21 -42 -6 31 

A2 -31 -7 3 -60 -13 9 -85 -30 0 

JJA 79 0.5 A1B -47 -12 28 -59 -15 26 -78 -19 5 

B1 -44 -10 13 -50 -15 10 -53 -12 9 

A2 -30 0 17 -36 -3 19 -73 -1 20 

SON 96.3 0.4 A1B -28 -4 28 -43 0 29 -50 1 28 

B1 -27 -3 6 -32 -5 12 -35 -4 26

Table 3.3.4: GCM and RCM projected changes in Turks and Caicos under the A2 scenario 

3.4. Wind Speed 

19 


SRES A2 


GCM Ensemble Range -63 

% Change 

-8 5 


2 

RCM (HadCM3) 

-35 

GCM Ensemble Range -34 1 36 


33 

RCM (HadCM3) 

4 



0 

RCM (HadCM3) 

-36 



-36 

RCM (HadCM3) 

-67 



12 

RCM (HadCM3) 

-43 

Observed mean wind speeds from the ICOADS mean monthly marine surface wind dataset demonstrate 

increasing trends around Turks and Caicos Islands in all seasons over the period 1960-2006. The increasing 

trend in mean annual wind speed is 0.34 ms -1 per decade. It is greatest in DJF at the rate of 0.56 ms -1 per 

decade. 

Mean wind speeds over Turks and Caicos Islands generally show a very small increase in GCM projections. 

Projected changes in annual average wind speed range between -0.2 and +0.5 ms -1 by the 2080s across the 

three emission scenarios. Both increases and decreases are seen in all seasons across the 15-model 

ensemble. 

RCM projections based on two driving GCMs lie within the range of changes indicated by the GCM 

ensemble. RCM simulations project a decrease in wind speed in DJF and increases in MAM and JJA seasons. 

Driven by ECHAM4, the RCM indicates a very small change in wind speeds in all seasons. Driven by 

HadCM3, the RCM projects a relatively large decrease of 0.5 ms -1 in DJF wind speed and a large increase of 

0.7 ms -1 in JJA wind speed by the 2080s.

Table 3.4.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in wind speed for Turks and Caicos Islands. 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

Turks and Caicos Islands: Country Scale Changes in Wind Speed 

Observed 

Trend 

1960- 

2006 


the 2020s 

the 2050s 

the 2080s 


(ms -1 ) (change in 

ms -1 per 

decade) 

Change in ms -1 Change in ms -1 Change in ms -1 

A2 -0.1 0 0.2 -0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.2 0.5 

Annual 7 0.34* A1B -0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.4 

B1 -0.1 0 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0 0.1 0.2 

A2 -0.4 0 0.5 -0.8 -0.1 0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.6 

DJF 7.4 0.56* A1B -0.3 0 0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.6 -0.3 0.1 0.3 

B1 -0.3 -0.1 0.4 -0.1 0 0.2 -0.3 0.2 0.4 

A2 -0.2 0 0.5 -0.5 0.3 0.8 -0.1 0.3 1.3 

MAM 6.9 0.17 A1B -0.3 0.2 0.6 -0.3 0 0.6 -0.4 0.4 0.9 

B1 -0.3 0.2 0.8 -0.1 0.1 0.5 -0.3 0.2 0.5 

A2 -0.3 0 0.3 -0.1 0 0.2 -0.3 0.3 0.7 

JJA 7.2 0.30* A1B -0.2 0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.8 

B1 -0.2 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.1 0.1 0.3 

A2 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 -0.3 0 0.2 -0.3 0.1 0.5 

SON 6.6 0.22* A1B -0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.3 0 0.1 -0.3 0 0.4 

B1 -0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.4 0 0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.2 


20 


SRES A2 


Change in ms -1 

GCM Ensemble Range -0.2 0.2 0.5 


0.1 

RCM (HadCM3) 

0.1 



-0.1 

RCM (HadCM3) 

-0.5 



0.2 

RCM (HadCM3) 

0.3 



0.4 

RCM (HadCM3) 

0.7 



0 

RCM (HadCM3) 

-0.1 

3.5. Relative Humidity 

Observations from the HadCRUH show statistically significant decreasing trend of 0.33% per decade in 

relative humidity in SON over the period 1973-2003 in Turks and Caicos Islands. Trends in other seasons are 

not statistically significant.

Relative humidity data has not been made available for all models in the 15-model ensemble. From the 

available data, the GCM projections indicate a small increase in RH in all seasons. The ensemble sub-sample 

range does span both increases and decreases in RH in all seasons. 

RCM projections indicate small increases in RH over Turks and Caicos Islands in all seasons. But, these 

increases are generally smaller in the EHCAM-driven simulation and higher in the HadCM3-driven 

simulation than the GCM ensemble median projections. RCM simulations, in general, project around 1% 

increase in annual RH by the 2080s under the A2 scenario. 

The representation of the land surface in climate models becomes very important when considering 

changes in relative humidity under a warmer climate. This factor is reflected when GCMs and RCMs 

projections are compared. 

Table 3.5.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in relative humidity for Turks and Caicos Islands 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

Turks and Caicos Islands: Country Scale Changes in Relative Humidity 

Observed 

Trend 

1960- 

2006 


the 2020s 

the 2050s 

the 2080s 


(%) (change in 

% per 

decade) 

Change in % Change in % Change in % 

A2 

0.2 

0.6 

1.2 

Annual 78.9 -0.14 A1B -3.9 0.1 0.7 -3.8 0.3 1.3 -4.6 0.2 1.6 

B1 -3.8 -0.3 0.3 -3.5 0.2 1 -4 0.6 1.1 

A2 

0 

0.7 

0.9 

DJF 77.7 0.22 A1B -2.8 -0.3 1 -3.3 0.5 1.2 -4 0.5 2.1 

B1 -3.2 0 0.9 -1.4 0.2 1.1 -3 0 1.6 

A2 

0.3 

0.8 

1.3 

MAM 79 -0.25 A1B -4.7 0.4 0.7 -4 0 1.4 -4.7 0.2 2 

B1 -4.5 -0.2 0.7 -4.2 0.5 0.8 -4.5 0.5 1.5 

A2 

0 

0.4 

1.5 

JJA 80 -0.2 A1B -3.9 -0.3 0.6 -4.2 0.4 1.3 -5.1 -0.5 1.6 

B1 -3.5 -0.5 0.4 -4.3 0.4 0.8 -4.6 0.5 1.8 

A2 

0 

0.5 

1.2 

SON 78.7 -0.33* A1B -4.1 0.1 0.8 -3.6 -0.1 1.3 -4.8 -0.8 1.8 

B1 -4 -0.3 0.4 -3.9 -0.2 1.1 -3.7 0.2 1.4 

21


GCM Ensemble Range 


RCM (HadCM3) 



RCM (HadCM3) 



RCM (HadCM3) 



RCM (HadCM3) 



RCM (HadCM3) 

3.6. Sunshine Hours 

22 


SRES A2 


Change in % 

1.2 

0.9 

1.6 

0.9 

0.1 

1 

1.3 

1.7 

1.7 

1.5 

0.5 

2.4 

1.2 

1.1 

1.2 

The number of ‘sunshine hours’ per day are calculated by applying the average clear-sky fraction from 

cloud observations to the number of daylight hours for the latitude of the location and the time of the year. 

The observed number of sunshine hours, based on ISCCP satellite observations of cloud coverage, indicates 

statistically significant increases in annual sunshine hours in Turks and Caicos Islands by 0.57 hours per 

decade over the period 1983-2001. The strongest and statistically significant increase is seen In JJA at the 

rate of 0.98 hours per decade. 

The number of sunshine hours is projected to increase slightly into the 21 st century in Turks and Caicos 

Islands by most GCMs, particularly in wet season reflecting reduction in average cloud fractions. The model 

ensemble, however, spans both increases and decreases in all seasons and across emissions scenarios. 

Changes in annual average sunshine hours span -0.3 to +1.2 hours per day by 2080s under scenario A2. The 

median increases projected by the GCM ensemble are large in JJA, but with changes spanning -0.5 to +1.7 

hours per day. 

Comparison between GCM and RCM projections of sunshine hours for Turks and Caicos Islands shows that 

the RCM projections generally lie toward the higher end of the range of changes projected by the GCM 

ensemble. RCM projections indicate increases of roughly an hour per day in mean annual sunshine hours by 

the 2080s. Both RCM simulations indicate large increases in sunshine hours in JJA (1.4-2.9 hours per day), 

which is in agreement with the GCM projections. These increases are particularly large in HadCM3-driven 

RCM simulation than the ECHAM4-driven simulation.

Table 3.6.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sunshine hours for Turks and Caicos Islands 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

Turks and Caicos Islands: Country Scale Changes in Sunshine Hours 

Observed 

Trend 

1960- 

2006 


the 2020s 

the 2050s 

the 2080s 


(hrs) (change in 

hrs per 

decade) 

Change in hrs Change in hrs Change in hrs 

A2 -0.2 0.1 0.5 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0 0.4 0.7 

Annual 6.5 0.57* A1B -0.3 0 0.9 -0.1 0.2 0.8 -0.2 0.3 1.2 

B1 -0.4 0.1 0.8 -0.1 0.1 0.8 -0.3 0.2 0.9 

A2 0 0.1 0.3 -0.3 0.1 0.4 -0.6 0.1 0.4 

DJF 6.9 0.43 A1B -0.4 0 0.6 -0.3 0.2 0.5 -0.5 0.1 0.7 

B1 -0.1 0 0.6 -0.2 0.1 0.7 -0.3 0 0.6 

A2 -0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.6 0.2 0.6 -0.4 0.4 0.8 

MAM 6.8 0.84 A1B -0.3 0.1 0.9 -0.3 0.3 0.6 -0.7 0.1 0.9 

B1 -0.7 0.1 0.7 -0.4 0.1 0.8 -0.6 0.1 0.9 

A2 -0.6 0.1 0.7 -0.7 0.3 1 -0.5 0.5 1.4 

JJA 6.7 0.98* A1B -0.7 0.1 1.2 -0.3 0.4 1.2 -0.5 0.5 1.7 

B1 -0.6 0.3 0.8 -0.2 0.3 0.9 -0.5 0.4 1.3 

A2 -0.3 0 0.6 -0.5 0.2 0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.9 

SON 5.5 0.06 A1B -0.5 0 1.1 -0.7 0 0.9 -0.3 0.3 1.5 

B1 -0.4 0.1 1 -0.2 0.2 0.9 -0.5 0.2 1.1 


23 


SRES A2 


GCM Ensemble Range 0 

Change in hours 

0.4 0.7 


0.7 

RCM (HadCM3) 

1.5 



0.3 

RCM (HadCM3) 

0.7 



0.5 

RCM (HadCM3) 

0.8 



1.4 

RCM (HadCM3) 

2.9 



0.6 

RCM (HadCM3) 

1.5 

3.7. Sea Surface Temperatures 

The HadSST2 gridded dataset shows no significant trend in mean annual sea surface temperatures around 

Turks and Caicos Islands over the period 1960-2006.

GCM projections indicate increases in sea-surface temperatures throughout the year. Projected increases 

range between +0.9˚C and +2.7˚C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios. The range of 

projections under any single emissions scenario spans roughly around 1.0 to 1.5˚C. 

Table 3.7.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in sea surface temperature for Turks and Caicos Islands 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

Turks and Caicos Islands: Country Scale Changes in Sea Surface Temperature 

Observed 

Trend 

1960- 

2006 


the 2020s 

the 2050s 

the 2080s 


(˚C) (change in 

˚C per 

decade) 

Change in ˚C Change in ˚C Change in ˚C 

A2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.7 

Annual 27.2 0.02 A1B 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.6 1.3 2.1 2.6 

B1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.7 1 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.8 

A2 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.7 1.8 2.5 2.8 

DJF 26 0.02 A1B 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.4 1.7 1.4 2.2 2.6 

B1 0.3 0.6 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.3 0.9 1.2 1.9 

A2 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 1.2 1.6 1.7 2.2 2.6 

MAM 26 0 A1B 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.2 2.1 2.5 

B1 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.6 1 1.4 0.8 1.3 1.7 

A2 0.2 0.7 1 1.1 1.2 1.6 1.8 2.2 2.8 

JJA 28.3 0.04 A1B 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.2 2.1 2.6 

B1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 1 1.2 0.9 1.2 1.7 

A2 0.4 0.7 1 0.9 1.4 1.7 1.8 2.3 2.8 

SON 28.3 0.03 A1B 0.4 0.7 0.9 1 1.6 1.8 1.5 2.2 2.8 

B1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 1 1.3 1.9 

3.8. Temperature Extremes 

Extreme hot and cold values are defined by the temperatures that are exceeded on 10% of days in the 

‘current’ climate or reference period. This allows us to define ‘hot’ and ‘cold’ relative to the particular 

climate of a specific region or season, and determine relative changes in extreme events. 

There is insufficient daily observational data to identify trends in daily temperature extremes in Turks and 

Caicos Islands. 

GCM projections indicate increases in the frequency of ‘hot’ days by 27-81% of days and ‘hot’ nights by 36- 

81% of nights annually by the 2080s. The rate of increase varies substantially between models for each 

scenario, but is very similar throughout the year. ‘Cold’ days and nights diminish in frequency, and do not 

occur at all in most models by the 2080s. 

24

Annual 

Table 3.8.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in temperature extremes for Turks and Caicos Islands 

DJF 

MAM 

JJA 

SON 

Annual 

DJF 

MAM 

JJA 

SON 

Annual 

DJF 

MAM 

JJA 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

% 

Frequency 

Turks and Caicos Islands: Country scale changes in Temperature Extremes 

Observed 

Trend 

1960- 

2006 

Change in 

frequency 

per 

decade 


the 2020s 

the 2050s 

the 2080s 


25 

Future % frequency Future % frequency 

A2 

Frequency of Hot Days (TX90p) 

27 47 60 42 66 81 

A1B 

32 47 58 37 63 72 

B1 

26 37 46 27 44 52 

A2 

48 69 86 72 92 97 

A1B 

53 71 81 64 91 94 

B1 

33 51 56 52 62 75 

A2 

32 64 90 58 89 98 

A1B 

39 65 81 49 87 96 

B1 

30 45 56 30 56 75 

A2 

60 76 92 84 97 99 

A1B 

66 78 89 78 93 98 

B1 

52 60 75 54 77 89 

A2 

24 76 97 47 96 100 

A1B 

33 79 97 44 93 99 

B1 

26 

Frequency of Hot Nights (TN90p) 

62 83 27 75 90 

A2 

35 47 59 54 63 81 

A1B 

39 49 56 48 62 70 

B1 

32 38 46 36 46 51 

A2 

51 65 83 79 89 96 

A1B 

54 70 78 68 89 93 

B1 

32 48 56 51 61 72 

A2 

43 60 86 77 88 97 

A1B 

37 62 75 57 84 93 

B1 

27 44 53 35 58 71 

A2 

70 76 93 95 98 99 

A1B 

70 79 88 81 95 98 

B1 

53 61 75 62 79 86 

A2 

51 82 96 85 98 99 

A1B 

61 86 96 78 95 99 

B1 

44 

Frequency of Cold Days (TX10p) 

65 79 55 81 88 

A2 

0 1 4 0 0 1 

A1B 

0 1 2 0 0 2 

B1 

0 2 3 0 1 3 

A2 

0 1 4 0 0 1 

A1B 

0 1 2 0 0 2 

B1 

0 2 3 0 1 3 

A2 

0 1 5 0 0 0 

A1B 

0 1 3 0 0 2 

B1 

0 1 4 0 0 5 

A2 

0 0 3 0 0 0 

A1B 

0 0 1 0 0 1 

B1 

0 0 3 0 0 3

SON 

Annual 

DJF 

MAM 

JJA 

SON 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

% 

Frequency 

Turks and Caicos Islands: Country scale changes in Temperature Extremes 

Observed 

Trend 

1960- 

2006 

Change in 

frequency 

per 

decade 

3.9. Rainfall Extremes 


the 2020s 

the 2050s 

the 2080s 


26 

Future % frequency Future % frequency 

A2 

0 0 2 0 0 0 

A1B 

0 0 1 0 0 1 

B1 

0 0 3 0 0 1 

Frequency of Cold Nights (TN10p) 

A2 

0 1 2 0 0 1 

A1B 

0 1 2 0 0 1 

B1 

0 1 4 0 1 2 

A2 

0 1 2 0 0 0 

A1B 

0 1 2 0 0 1 

B1 

0 1 4 0 1 2 

A2 

0 1 2 0 0 0 

A1B 

0 0 2 0 0 0 

B1 

0 1 5 0 1 2 

A2 

0 0 1 0 0 0 

A1B 

0 0 0 0 0 0 

B1 

0 0 0 0 0 0 

A2 

0 0 1 0 0 0 

A1B 

0 0 2 0 0 1 

B1 

0 0 2 0 0 2 

Changes in rainfall extremes, based on 1- and 5-day rainfall totals, as well as exceedance of a relative 

threshold for ‘heavy’ rain, were examined. ‘Heavy’ rain is determined by the daily rainfall totals that are 

exceeded on 5% of wet days in the ‘current’ climate or reference period, relative to the particular climate 

of a specific region or season. 

There is insufficient daily observational data to identify trends in rainfall extremes in Turks and Caicos 

Islands. 

GCM projections of rainfall extremes are mixed across the ensemble of models, ranging from both 

decreases and increases of all measures of extreme rainfall. The proportion of total rainfall that falls in 

heavy events decreases in most model projections, changing by ‐17% to +5% by the 2080s. 

Maximum 1-day rainfall shows no change by the 2080s according to the median ensemble projections, but 

with wide variations across the GCM ensemble. Maximum 5‐day rainfall tends to decrease in model 

projections ranging from ‐18 to +29 mm annually by the 2080s.

Annual 

DJF 

MAM 

JJA 

SON 

Annual 

DJF 

MAM 

JJA 

SON 

Table 3.9.1: Observed and GCM projected changes in rainfall extremes for Turks and Caicos Islands 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

Turks and Caicos Islands: Country scale changes in Rainfall Extremes 

Observed 

Trend 

1960- 

2006 

% Change 

in % per 

decade 

mm Change 

in mm 

per 

decade 

Projected changes by Projected changes by Projected changes by the 

the 2020s 

the 2050s 

2080s 

Mi Medi Max Min Median Max Min Median Max 

n an 

% total rainfall falling in Heavy Events (R95pct) 

Change in % Change in % 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

-12 0 4 -15 -1 5 

-18 0 2 -17 -2 5 

-10 0 3 -14 -1 4 

-11 1 9 -11 0 12 

-10 1 6 -17 -1 8 

-7 0 2 -11 -2 6 

-18 -5 3 -18 -6 12 

-20 -4 0 -22 -2 7 

-15 -4 8 -14 -2 19 

-19 -3 6 -23 -6 2 

-20 -3 8 -22 -5 6 

-14 -1 5 -15 -1 7 

-20 -1 4 -15 -2 7 

-18 0 7 -20 2 7 

-9 

Maximum 1-day rainfall (RX1day) 

0 5 -14 -1 8 

Change in mm Change in mm 

27 

-4 0 7 -9 0 10 

-6 0 9 -6 0 11 

-4 0 10 -7 0 6 

-4 0 5 -4 1 4 

-3 0 2 -6 0 6 

-2 0 2 -2 0 2 

-5 -1 5 -8 -1 4 

-6 -1 5 -7 -1 6 

-3 0 4 -5 0 11 

-5 0 2 -9 -1 0 

-5 0 4 -6 -1 1 

-4 0 7 -4 -1 4 

-4 0 6 -10 0 11 

-7 0 11 -6 0 12 

-2 0 8 -5 -1 3

Annual 

DJF 

MAM 

JJA 

SON 

Observed 

Mean 

1970-99 

Turks and Caicos Islands: Country scale changes in Rainfall Extremes 

Observed 

Trend 

1960-2006 

mm Change 

in mm 

per 

decade 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

A2 

A1B 

B1 

3.10. Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 


the 2020s 

the 2050s 

the 2080s 


Maximum 5-day Rainfall (RX5day) 

Change in mm Change in mm 

28 

-14 -1 17 -18 -3 11 

-18 0 12 -16 0 29 

-13 0 23 -15 -4 18 

-9 0 9 -9 1 9 

-7 0 9 -9 0 9 

-7 -1 8 -8 0 3 

-12 -4 14 -18 -7 6 

-14 -3 12 -15 -4 13 

-8 -1 12 -10 0 25 

-16 -3 11 -21 -6 -1 

-16 -3 3 -28 -5 0 

-13 -2 18 -13 -3 5 

-11 -4 13 -18 -2 12 

-19 0 12 -13 0 33 

-11 0 22 -13 -3 10 

Historical and future changes in tropical storm and hurricane activity have been a topic of heated debate in 

the climate science community. Drawing robust conclusions with regards to changes in climate extremes is 

continually hampered by issues of data quality in our observations, the difficulties in separating natural 

variability from long-term trends and the limitations imposed by spatial resolution of climate models. 

Tropical storms and hurricanes form from pre-existing weather disturbances where sea surface 

temperatures (SSTs) exceed 26˚C. Whilst SSTs are a key factor in determining the formation, development 

and intensity of tropical storms, a number of other factors are also critical, such as subsidence, wind shear 

and static stability. This means that whilst observed and projected increases in SSTs under a warmer 

climate potentially expand the regions and periods of time when tropical storms may form, the critical 

conditions for storm formation may not necessarily be met (e.g. Veccchi and Soden, 2007; Trenberth et al., 

2007), and increasing SSTs may not necessarily be accompanied by an increase in the frequency of tropical 

storm incidences. 

Several analyses of global (e.g. Webster et al., 2005) and more specifically North Atlantic (e.g. Holland and 

Webster, 2007; Kossin et al., 2007; Elsner et al., 2008) hurricanes have indicated increases in the observed 

record of tropical storms over the last 30 years. It is not yet certain to what degree this trend arises as part 

of a long-term climate change signal or shorter-term inter-decadal variability. The available longer term 

records are riddled with in homogeneities (inconsistencies in recording methods through time) - most 

significantly, the advent of satellite observations, before which storms were only recorded when making 

landfall or observed by ships (Kossin et al., 2007). Recently, a longer-term study of variations in hurricane

frequency in the last 1,500 years based on proxy reconstructions from regional sedimentary evidence 

indicate recent levels of Atlantic hurricane activity are anomalously high relative to those of the last one- 

and -a -half millennia (Mann et al., 2009). 

Climate models are still relatively primitive with respect to representing tropical storms, and this restricts 

our ability to determine future changes in frequency or intensity. We can analyse the changes in 

background conditions that are conducive to storm formation (boundary conditions) (e.g. Tapiador, 2008), 

or apply them to embedded high-resolution models which can credibly simulate tropical storms (e.g. 

Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Emanuel et al., 2008). Regional Climate Models are able to simulate weak 

‘cyclone-like’ storm systems that are broadly representative of a storm or hurricane system but are still 

considered coarse in scale with respect to modelling hurricanes. 

The IPCC AR4 (Meehl et al., 2007) concludes that models are broadly consistent in indicating increases in 

precipitation intensity associated with tropical storms (e.g. Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Knutson et al., 2008; 

Chauvin et al., 2006; Hasegawa and Emori, 2005; Tsutsui, 2002). The higher resolution models that 

simulate storms more credibly are also broadly consistent in indicating increases in associated peak wind 

intensities and mean rainfall (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004; Oouchi et al., 2006). We summarise the projected 

changes in wind and precipitation intensities from a selection of these modelling experiments in Table 

3.10.1 to give an indication of the magnitude of these changes. 

With regards to the frequency of tropical storms in future climate, models are strongly divergent. Several 

recent studies (e.g. Vecchi and Sodon, 2007; Bengtssen et al., 2007; Emanuel et al., 2008, Knutson et al., 

2008) have indicated that the frequency of storms may decrease due to decreases in vertical wind shear in 

a warmer climate. In several of these studies, intensity of hurricanes still increases despite decreases in 

frequency (Emanuel et al., 2008; Knutson et al., 2008). In a recent study of the PRECIS regional climate 

model simulations for Central America and the Caribbean, Bezanilla et al., (2009) found that the frequency 

of ‘Tropical -Cyclone-like –Vortices’ increases on the Pacific coast of Central America, but decreases on the 

Atlantic coast and in the Caribbean. 

When interpreting the modelling experiments we should remember that our models remain relatively 

primitive with respect to the complex atmospheric processes that are involved in hurricane formation and 

development. Hurricanes are particularly sensitive to some of the elements of climate physics that these 

models are weakest at representing, and are often only included by statistical parameterisations. 

Comparison studies have demonstrated that the choice of parameterisation scheme can exert a strong 

influence on the results of the study (e.g. Yoshimura et al., 2006). We should also recognise that the El Niño 

Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a strong and well established influence on Tropical Storm frequency in the 

North Atlantic, and explains a large proportion of inter-annual variability in hurricane frequency. This 

means that the future frequency of hurricanes in the North Atlantic is likely to be strongly dependent on 

whether the climate state becomes more ‘El-Niño-like’, or more ‘La-Niña-like’ – an issue upon which 

models are still strongly divided and suffer from significant deficiencies in simulating the fundamental 

features of ENSO variability (e.g. Collins et al., 2005). 

29

Table 3.10.1: Changes in Near-storm rainfall and wind intensity associated with Tropical storms in under global 

warming scenarios 

Reference GHG 

scenario 

Knutson et al. 

(2008) 

Knutson and Tuleya 

(2004) 

Type of Model Domain Change in nearstorm 

intensity 

rainfall 

A1B Regional Climate Model Atlantic (+37, 23, 10)% 

when averaged 

within 50, 100 

and 400 km of 

the storm centre 

1% per 

year CO 2 

increase 

9 GCMs + nested regional 

model with 4 different 

moist convection 

schemes. 

Oouchi et al. (2006) A1B High Resolution GCM Global 

3.11. Sea Level Rise 

30 

Change in peak 

wind intensity 

+2.9% 

Global +12-33% +5-7% 

N/A +14% 

North Atlantic +20% 

Observed records of sea level from tidal gauges and satellite altimeter readings indicate a global mean SLR 

of 1.8 (+/- 0.5) mm yr -1 over the period 1961-2003 (Bindoff et al., 2007). Acceleration in this rate of 

increase over the course of the 20 th Century has been detected in most regions (Woodworth et al., 2009; 

Church and White, 2006). 

There are large regional variations superimposed on the mean global SLR rate. Observations from tidal 

gauges surrounding the Caribbean basin (Table 3.11.1) indicate that SLR in the Caribbean is broadly 

consistent with the global trend (Table 3.11.2). 

Table 3.11.1: Sea level rise rates at observation stations surrounding the Caribbean Basin 

Tidal Gauge Station Observed trend (mm yr -1 ) Observation period 

Bermuda 2.04 (+/- 0.47) 1932-2006 

San Juan, Puerto Rico 1.65 (+/- 0.52) 1962-2006 

Guantanamo Bay, Cuba 1.64 (+/- 0.80) 1973-1971 

Miami Beach, Florida 2.39 (+/1 0.43) 1931-1981 

Vaca Key, Florida 2.78 (+/- 0.60) 1971-2006 

(Source: NOAA, 2009) 

Projections of future SLR associated with climate change have recently become a topic of heated debate in 

scientific research. The IPCC’s AR4 report summarised a range of SLR projections under each of its standard 

scenarios, for which the combined range spans 0.18-0.59 m by 2100 relative to 1980-1999 levels (see 

ranges for each scenario in Table 3.11.2). These estimates have since been challenged for being too 

conservative and a number of studies (e.g. Rahmstorf, 2007; Rignot and Kanargaratnam, 2006; Horton et 

al., 2008) have provided evidence to suggest that their uncertainty range should include a much larger 

upper limit. 

Total sea level rises associated with atmospheric warming appear largely through the combined effects of 

two main mechanisms: (a) thermal expansion (the physical response of the water mass of the oceans to 

atmospheric warming) and (b) ice-sheet, ice-cap and glacier melt. Whilst the rate of thermal expansion of 

the oceans in response to a given rate of temperature increase is projected relatively consistently between 

GCMs, the rate of ice melt is much more difficult to predict due to our incomplete understanding of icesheet 

dynamics. The IPCC total SLR projections comprise of 70-75% (Meehl et al., 2007a) contribution from

thermal expansion, with only a conservative estimate of the contribution from ice sheet melt (Rahmstorf, 

2007). 

Recent studies that observed acceleration in ice discharge (e.g. Rignot and Kanargaratnam, 2006) and 

observed rates of SLR in response to global warming (Rahmstorf, 2007), suggest that ice sheets respond 

highly-non linearly to atmospheric warming. We might therefore expect continued acceleration of the large 

ice sheets resulting in considerably more rapid rates of SLR. Rahmstorf (2007) is perhaps the most well 

cited example of such a study and suggests that future SLR might be in the order of twice the maximum 

level that the IPCC, indicating up to 1.4 m by 2100. 

Table 3.11.2: Projected increases in sea level rise from the IPCC AR4 

Scenario Global Mean Sea Level Rise 

by 2100 relative to 1980- 

1999. 

31 

Caribbean Mean Sea Level Rise 

by 2100 relative to 1980-1999 

(+/ 0.05m relative to global 

mean) 

IPCC B1 0.18-0.38 0.13-0.43 

IPCC A1B 0.21-0.48 0.16-0.53 

IPCC A2 0.23-0.51 0.18- 0.56 

Rahmstorf, 2007 Up to 1.4m Up to 1.45m 

(Source: Meehl et al., 2007 contrasted with those of Rahmstorf, 2007). 

3.12. Storm Surge 

Changes to the frequency or magnitude of storm surge experienced at coastal locations in Cockburn Town 

are likely to occur as a result of the combined effects of: 

1. Increased mean sea level in the region, which raises the base sea level over which a given storm 

surge height is superimposed 

2. Changes in storm surge height, or frequency of occurrence, resulting from changes in the 

severity or frequency of storms 

3. Physical characteristics of the region (bathymetry and topography) which determine the 

sensitivity of the region to storm surge by influencing the height of the storm surge generated 

by a given storm. 

Sections 3.10 and 3.11 discuss the potential changes in sea level and hurricane intensity that might be 

experienced in the region under (global) warming scenarios. The high degree of uncertainty in both of 

these contributing factors creates difficulties in estimating future changes in storm surge height or 

frequency. 

Further impacts on storm surge flood return period may include: 

Potential changes in storm frequency: some model simulations indicate a future reduction in storm 

frequency, either globally or at the regional level. If such decreases occur they may offset these 

increases in flood frequency at a given elevation. 

Potential increases in storm intensity: evidence suggests overall increases in the intensity of storms 

(lower pressure, higher near storm rainfall and wind speeds) which would cause increases in the 

storm surges associated with such events, and contribute further to increases in flood frequency at 

a given elevation.

4. VULNERABILITY AND IMPACTS PROFILE FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS 

ISLANDS 

Vulnerability is defined as the “inherent characteristics or qualities of social systems that create the 

potential for harm. Vulnerability is a function of exposure… and sensitivity of [the] system” (Adger, 2006; 

Cutter, 1996 cited in Cutter et al. 2008, p. 599). Climate change is projected to be a progressive process and 

therefore vulnerability will arise at different time and spatial scales affecting communities and sectors in 

distinct ways. Participatory approaches to data collection were implemented in Lower Bight, Providenciales 

to provide additional community-level data and field surveys at the Grand Turk Cruise Centre, Grand Turk 

West Shore and Historic Cockburn Town enabled the creation of sea level rise impact data and maps. To 

help in the identification and analysis of vulnerability, the following sections discuss the implications and 

impacts of climate change on key sectors as they relate to tourism in The Turks and Caicos Islands. 

TCI is already experiencing some of the effects of climate variability through damages from severe weather 

systems and the decline of some coastal tourism attractions. The Turks and Caicos Islands economy relies 

primarily on tourism and fisheries. These sectors, and others, are dependent on the state of the natural 

environment, so climate change impacts on coastal and marine ecosystems will ultimately and adversely 

affect these sectors. In addition, the pattern of development in TCI is concentrated in the coastal zone 

where impacts from climate change such as increased intensity of hurricanes, storm surges, sea level rise 

and flooding will be strongly felt. 

4.1. Water Quality and Availability 

4.1.1. Background 

The Turks and Caicos Islands are an archipelago consisting of numerous limestone islands and can be 

considered a water scarce country (DEPS, 2007b): the high porosity of the soils and the small size (total size: 

430 km 2 ) of these islands results in limited surface water resources (Bennett et al., 2002). While there are 

three freshwater lakes on Pine Cay, located in the Leeward Islands, these lakes are considered rare habitats 

and do not exist anywhere else in the archipelago (SWA Ltd., Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc., 

EDSA 2010). In addition to a lack of surface water, the geographical location of the Turks and Caicos Islands 

at the south-east end of the Bahamas chain means that the islands receive limited rainfall. 

While there are about 40 islands and numerous cays that make up the Turks and Caicos Islands, only the six 

largest islands and two small cays are inhabited. According to the last census conducted in 2001, the 

majority of the population (65%) reside on Providenciales followed by Grand Turk (20%), the latter being 

the administrative capital (DEPS, 2009). The Turk Islands, located southeast of the country’s territory 

receive low annual rainfall of 533 mm. To the north west of the group, including the major islands of North 

Caicos and Providenciales, nearly double this amount of rainfall is received, allowing them to support 

agriculture that is not possible in the Turk Islands (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). However, during 

tropical storms, a proportion of the rainfall may be received. For example, during tropical storm Hanna in 

2008, 330 mm of rainfall fell over a three day period in Middle Caicos, around a third of the average annual 

total (ECLAC, 2008). The geographical distribution of the islands results in a high variability of rainfall 

patterns where drought may be experienced in individual islands independent of others (ECLAC, 2008). 

According to the Country Poverty Assessment for the Turks and Caicos Islands, Grand Turk and Salt Cay are 

32

particularly affected by higher water demand in comparison to available water resources (Kairi Consultants 

Limited, 2000a). 

The percentage of the population using an improved drinking water source was 98% in 2008 and 98% of 

urban population had access to improved sanitation facilities (ECLAC, 2010); the majority of the population 

(93%) lives in urban areas (ECLAC, 2010). Water sources on the islands vary depending on water demand of 

the population and the economic activities which exist. Water is typically sourced from reverse osmosis 

desalination of brackish underground water on the populated islands of Providenciales, Grand Turk and Salt 

Cay (DEPS, 2007b), while on less populated islands, household water catchment systems which harvest 

rainwater or from fresh water lenses beneath some of the islands (ECLAC, 2008). The formation of these 

fresh water lenses results from factors such as amount and distribution of rainfall, amount and type of 

vegetation, island size (particularly the width from ocean to lagoon side), together with hydrogeological 

factors, tidal movement, island height above the sea level and width of the reef (Monteagudo and Miquel, 

2000). Non-potable water resources including sea water and brackish groundwater are also utilized for, for 

example, flushing toilets (Monteagudo and Miquel, 2000). Water demand is rising with increasing 

development, and improvements in technology and operational efficiency have led to an increasing 

number of private desalination plants (DEPS, 2007b). In the past, water supply was a limitation to socioeconomic 

development – this situation has largely been solved through the use of desalination (DEPS, 

2007b). Water is used for a variety of purposes including domestic water supply, tourism, irrigation and 

sustaining ecosystems (DEPS, 2007b). 

Many homes have sizeable cisterns to store water, which have been required by law (DEPS, 2007b), that 

may be replenished either from rainwater or via truck borne water supplies (Kairi Consultants Limited, 

2000a), and form the most common source of water for much of the Turks and Caicos Islands (ECLAC, 

2008), particularly the less populated islands (DEPS, 2007b). Cisterns have been an important means of 

reducing water shortages, especially during the passage of hurricane systems (ECLAC, 2008). For example, 

after tropical storm Hanna and hurricane Ike, in islands which primarily use cisterns, water supply was not 

an issue, except for temporary damage to piping or cuts in the electricity that stopped the pump of water, 

fixed rapidly by the locals themselves (ECLAC, 2008). However, in Grand Turk, where water is produced 

from desalination, water supplies were disrupted due to cuts in the electricity supply, which was restored 

through the use of stand-by generators (ECLAC, 2008). 

The private company Turks and Caicos Water operates a reverse osmosis desalination plant and, with the 

Government, has joint ownership of the Provo Water Company which provides water distribution services 

to Providenciales as well as sewerage (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). Access to clean water in the Turks 

and Caicos is either from rainwater harvesting using catchment roof systems, or by purchase from the 

Government, which is considered expensive (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). People have complained 

about the high cost of water (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a) (see Table 4.1.1). 

Table 4.1.1: Water tariff for domestic and non-domestic users in the Turks and Caicos Islands 

Category Water Usage (Gallons per month) Rate ($US) 

Domestic 1,000 $35 per 1,000 gallons 

Commercial 300,000 Reduced rates on a sliding scale 

(Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a) 

A summary of water resources across the Turks and Caicos Islands is shown in Table 4.1.2 (availability) and 

Table 4.1.3 (distribution). In Providenciales, The Turks and Caicos Water Company processes drinkable 

33

water and Provo Water is in charge of the distribution (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a; ECLAC, 2008). 

Brackish ground water is treated at the reverse osmosis desalination plants. Currently, the production and 

storage of water in these islands is about 2.3 million gallons per day and its demand reaches 10 to 11 

million gallons per month (ECLAC, 2008). In terms of tourism, 87% of hotel rooms are located in 

Providenciales and as such the greatest water demand for the sector may be associated with this (DEPS, 

2009). The tourism sector places one of the greatest demands on water resources and sewerage facilities in 

Turks and Caicos (Bennett et al., 2002). There were 255,000 ‘stay over’ visitors to Turks and Caicos in 2009, 

the great majority originating from the United States of America (BCQS, 2010). Increased pollution in the 

coastal zone has been attributed to the tourism sector as well as rising population of the country (Bennett, 

et al., 2002). 

There are acute shortages on Grand Turk, South Caicos and Salt Cay, leading to interruptions to the water 

supply (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). Due to its topography and geology, in Grand Turk surface water 

does not form a source of water; the main fresh water source is rain water. In the island, collection systems 

for rain water are well developed, consisting mainly of roof catchments, gutters and cisterns. Across the 

island there are also 27 tanks with a storage capacity of 5 million gallons, used for the collection and 

storage of water from three major ground catchments, two minor ones and roof catchments. In addition, 

reverse osmosis plants are also used for water supply. In 2000, Grand Turk had three reverse osmosis 

plants with a per-capita production capacity of around 136 litres per day. In Grand Turk some areas are 

supplied with salt water for flushing purposes, and there is an interest in making mandatory the 

implementation of both potable water and unmetered salt water domestic connections (Monteagudo and 

Miquel, 2000). Ground water is not used as a fresh water source in Grand Turk. This brackish water is 

currently used only for cattle watering. 

Regarding sewerage, only around 7.5% of toilets are connected to a central sewer system, predominantly in 

areas of high economic status. For the poorest of the population, only 33.8% of have their sanitation 

facilities connected to septic tanks, with 62.4% using pit latrines; in the high income population, 72% use 

septic tanks and only 9% pit latrines. In Providenciales, the most urbanised of the islands, pit latrines are 

used by 30% of the overall population. Shared sanitation facilities are used by 28% of the population rising 

to 37.1% for the poor population (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a) 

Only 27.7% of wells and tanks for water collection and storage are public, thus, private supply of water is 

common among households (63.6%). Among the poor population, a much greater proportion (51.6%) 

depend on public storage systems including wells and tanks, compared to 44.6% utilising a private supply 

(Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

34

Table 4.1.2: Availability of water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands 

Islands Distribution and thickness of known aquifers 

Providenciales Few freshwater aquifers 

Pine Cay/ Water Cay Freshwater available 

Parrot Cay Less freshwater than on Pine Cay and Water Cay 

North Caicos Freshwater sources in Kew, Bottle Creek, Monkey Hill and 

Sandy Point 

Middle Caicos Conch Bar, Bambarra and Lorimers 

South Caicos Groundwater sources are brackish 

Grand Turk Groundwater sources, once potable now brackish 

Salt Cay All wells supply are brackish 

(Source: Taken from Byron, 2011) 

Table 4.1.3: Distribution of water resources in Turks and Caicos Islands 

Islands Water Sources Distribution Water Agency 

Providenciales • SWRO 

• Private harvesting 

Grand Turk • SWRO 

• Public harvesting 


North Caicos • Public harvesting 

• Private harvesting Groundwater 

wells 

South Caicos • SWRO 



Middle Caicos • Public harvesting 

• Private harvesting Groundwater 

wells 

35 

• Piped 

• Issue points 

• Piped 

• Issue points 

Providenciales Water 

Company 

Water Undertaking 

Department 

• Issue points Water Undertaking 

Department 


Department 


Department 

West Caicos • SWRO • Issue points Privately developed 

Salt Cay • SWRO 



Water Undertaking 

Department 

Pine Cay • SWRO Privately developed 

Parrot Cay • SWRO Privately developed 

Ambergis Cay • SWRO Privately developed 

SWRO – Salt Water Reverse Osmosis Desalination Plant 

(Source: Byron, 2011) 

4.1.2. Vulnerability of Water Availability and Quality Sector to Climate Change 

According to (Byron, 2011), climate change is likely to put stress on existing water infrastructure, with an 

inadequate maintenance of aging water production and delivery systems leaving them vulnerable; coastal 

erosion and flooding has already damaged water infrastructure (Byron, 2011). Water resources in the Turks 

and Caicos Islands are limited, consisting of rainfall, saline water and scarce ground water supplies which 

have had problems with contamination (Bennett et al., 2002). Occasional droughts and water shortages 

occur in most islands (Byron, 2011). Ground water aquifers are likely to experience decreased rates of 

replenishment, erosion of natural barriers and salt water intrusion; rainwater harvesting would be affected

y drought conditions; and salt water is likely to cause damage to infrastructure (Byron, 2011). Natural 

hazards including tropical storms and hurricanes exacerbate this situation. 

In the Country Poverty Assessment of Turks and Caicos, three major water related problems were 

identified: (i) problematic water supply in some communities; (ii) a high variability in the quality of water 

available to population; and (iii) a lack of knowledge in testing and protecting water quality (Kairi 

Consultants Limited, 2000a). TCI is vulnerable to small changes in climate, particularly since the focus of 

development in the islands is located in the coastal zone, where potential climate change impacts such as 

sea level rise and a higher frequency of hurricanes, storms and flooding are more likely (Climate Change 

Committee, 2011). 

Drought in the Turks and Caicos Islands 

Decreases in precipitation are projected for many sub-tropical areas including the Caribbean region, which 

is also likely to experience shorter rainy seasons and precipitation in shorter duration, intense events 

interspersed with longer periods of relatively dry conditions (Bates et al., 2008). A significant increase in the 

number of consecutive dry days has been found for the Caribbean region (Bates et al., 2008), indicating 

that periods of drought are becoming increasingly common. As a result, drought management will become 

a progressively large challenge, requiring a multifocal approach due to its non-structural nature and 

complex spatial patterns. This makes it a difficult task to find suitable solutions to adapt to the problems 

created by drought conditions (e.g. Campbell et al., 2011). Good management of the water supply system is 

critical for drought mitigation, needing careful operation of water supply infrastructure to be effective (e.g. 

Fang et al., 2011; Hyde et al., 1994; Shih and Revelle, 1994). Measures taken to mitigate the effects of 

drought conditions in the Caribbean region have included the use of truck water for in-country 

redistribution, the rotation of water supply, increased desalination, and the importation of water from 

other countries using barges. 

The Climate Change Committee (2011) established that rising temperatures may promote more frequent 

fires and lead to an increased loss of water due to evaporation. Changes in rainfall patterns may lead to a 

decrease in fresh water availability and more frequent and severe droughts, leading to a loss of crops and 

livestock. As a result, it is likely that the islands will increase the dependency on desalinated water, leading 

to an increase in the cost of water supply (Climate Change Committee, 2011). Drought conditions will also 

affect the ability of the country to harvest rainwater (Byron, 2011). 

Coastal Aquifers and the Potential for Saline Intrusion 

Coastal aquifers are threatened by seawater intrusion with rising sea levels, exacerbated by a decrease in 

groundwater recharge through overabstraction and decreasing precipitation (Bates et al., 2008; Lewsey et 

al., 2004; Werner and Simmons, 2009). A rise in sea level as low as 0.1 m may cause a decreases in aquifer 

thickness of more than 10 m (Bobba et al., 2002), leading to substantial declines in freshwater availability. 

Reductions in groundwater recharge to inland aquifers can also lead to seawater intrusion if they are next 

to saline aquifers (Chen et al., 2004), indicating a potential knock-on effect where coastal aquifers become 

saline due to sea-level rise, then neighbouring aquifers experience saltwater intrusion during dry periods 

with low groundwater recharge. With global average sea levels found to be rising at a rate of 1.8 ± 0.3 mm 

per year (White et al., 2005) and with rates increasing (Church and White, 2006), coastal aquifers may be 

severely impacted by saltwater intrusion and many countries may lose vital water resources. 

Storm surges from hurricanes can cause extensive damage to aquifers (Anderson, 2002), the risk of which 

will increase as higher sea-levels reduce the level of the storm-surge required for contamination to occur. 

In the Caribbean, sea levels have been observed to have risen between 1.5 and 3 mm per year (see Section 

36

3). Factors which increase the vulnerability of aquifers to saline intrusion include (i) their proximity to the 

sea, (ii) increasing abstractions due to rising demand from domestic, agricultural and industrial uses 

(Karanjac, 2004), and (iii) declining groundwater recharge through reduced precipitation or an increased 

proportion of surface runoff through precipitation occurring in higher-intensity, shorter-duration events 

(Bates et al., 2008) or decreased infiltration of water through land-cover changes agriculture (Scanlon et al., 

2005; Zhang and Schilling, 2006). In the Turks and Caicos Islands, it is expected that among the damages 

that sea level rise may cause are the loss of agricultural land and coastal fresh water resources through 

erosion, and salt water intrusion into aquifers (Climate Change Committee, 2011). Sea level rise may also 

result in damage to infrastructure associated with desalination infrastructure (Byron, 2011). 

Agriculture and irrigation 

Globally, agricultural water use comprises around 70% of total water extractions (Wisser et al., 2008) yet, in 

the drier, warmer environment expected under climate change in the Caribbean, irrigation water demand 

is likely to increase, exacerbating the effects of decreases in water availability (Döll, 2002). Increased 

evaporative demands under climate change may lead to reductions in irrigation efficiency (Fischer et al., 

2007). Careful consideration will need to be given to efficient irrigation practices and technology to reduce 

wastage and increase the amount of water reaching the crop, estimated to be as low as 40% worldwide 

(Pimentel et al., 1997). 

In the Turks and Caicos Islands, the limited rainfall plus poor quality soil and a limestone base restrict the 

possibilities for agricultural development and, as a result of this and a well-organized transportation 

system, most food is imported, except for fish, conch and lobster (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

Greater agricultural potential exists towards the north west of the group, including North Caicos and 

Providenciales, due to the relatively higher rainfall received, although the agricultural potential of North 

Caicos remains largely unexploited (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). However, declines in agricultural 

production are expected throughout the Turks and Caicos, due a lack of water supply for irrigation (Climate 

Change Committee, 2011). In addition, the Climate Change Committee (Climate Change Committee, 2011) 

has noted that “rising sea levels could lead to loss of land for agriculture due to salinization and 

inundation”. 

Flooding 

Intense rainfall from storm events may only last a few hours, but can result in serious rapid-onset flooding, 

particularly when they occur in catchments that are small, steep or highly urbanised, as is the case in the 

much of the Caribbean region. Floods are a particular problem for water resources because, aside from the 

potential for loss of life and property, they can affect water quality and have implications for sanitation and 

cause serious soil erosion. Flooding erodes topsoil along with animal waste, faeces, pesticides, fertilizers, 

sewage and garbage, which may then contaminate groundwater sources as well as marine areas. Erosion 

may lead to the formation and deepening of gullies which, if they develop in hillslope areas with temporary 

water tables, may lead to enhanced drainage leading to groundwater discharge (Poesen, 2003). 

While GCM modelling projections indicate an overall tendency for decreases in overall precipitation across 

the Caribbean region (see Section 3), excluded from these projections is the potential of an increase in the 

frequency and intensity of storm events with associated heavy rainfall (Frei et al., 1998; Min et al., 2011), 

including those associated with hurricanes. Research by Emanuel (2005) shows a strong correlation 

between hurricane size and sea surface temperature, suggesting an upward trend in hurricane destructive 

potential. Statistical analysis (Trenberth, 2005) and modelling (Knutson and Tuleya, 2004) suggest that 

hurricane intensity will increase, with the north Atlantic Ocean in particular showing an increasing trend in 

storm frequency (Deo et al., 2011). 

37

Along with coastal inundation resulting from sea level rise and storm surges during hurricanes, if climate 

change causes an increase in the intensity of precipitation from storm events, more frequent and 

substantial flooding will result, which may overburdening wastewater and sewer systems, increasing the 

risk of water-borne disease, and create breeding grounds for mosquitoes in low lying areas, increasing the 

risk of mosquito-borne diseases such as dengue (Climate Change Committee, 2011). The islands are 

brushed or hit by a hurricane once in every 2.17 years (Hurricane City, 2011). Recent past storms have 

caused widespread flooding, along with wind damage to homes – tropical storm Hanna and hurricane Ike in 

2008 affected the majority of the populations of Grand Turk, South Caicos and Salt Cay (ECLAC, 2008) and 

caused great loss of property, particularly in Grand Turk (BCQS International, 2010). These systems had 

significant rainfall (330 mm of rain fell on Middle Caicos during Hanna) which caused severe flooding along 

with widespread wind damage, leading substantial damage to infrastructure including roadways, the 

causeway linking Middle Caicos and North Caicos, electricity and service piping including water (ECLAC, 

2008). Damages to water supply infrastructure were relatively small at US $339,200, 0.2% of the total 

damage of US $213.6M (ECLAC, 2008). During hurricane Ike, the airports in Providenciales, Grand Turk, and 

South Caicos were all flooded (Hurricane City, 2011). Flood water on South Caicos took over two weeks to 

drain away, compared to Salt Cay where it took around three days – differences thought to result from 

variable drainage from the salinas (former salt-drying pans that still exist today) in the two islands, with 

those on South Caicos acting to retain rainwater (ECLAC, 2008). Flooding in South Caicos after hurricane Ike 

was exacerbated by ground saturation from the earlier Tropical Storm Hanna (Hurricane City, 2011). 

38

4.2. Energy Supply and Distribution 


A global perspective 

Tourism is a significant user of energy and a concomitant contributor to emissions of greenhouse gases. In 

various national comparisons, tourism has been identified as one of the most energy-intense sectors, which 

moreover is largely dependent on fossil fuels (e.g. Gössling et al., 2005; Gössling, 2010). Likewise, the 

growing energy intensity of economies in the Caribbean has caused concern among researchers (e.g. 

Francis et al., 2007). 

Globally, tourism causes 5% of emissions of CO2, the most relevant greenhouse gas. Considering the 

radiative forcing of all greenhouse gases, tourism’s contribution to global warming increases to 5.2-12.5% 

(Scott et al., 2010). The higher share is a result of emissions of nitrous oxides (NOx) as well as water leading 

to the formation of aviation-induced clouds (AIC), which cause additional radiative forcing. The range in the 

estimate is primarily attributed to uncertainties regarding the role of AIC in trapping heat (Lee et al., 2009). 

Aviation is consequently the most important tourism-subsector in terms of its impact on climate change, 

accounting for at least 40% (CO2) of the contribution made by tourism to climate change. This is followed 

by cars (32% of CO2), accommodation (21%), activities (4%), and other transport (3%), notably cruise ships 

(1.5%). 

In the future to 2050, emissions from tourism are expected to grow considerably. Based on a business-asusual 

scenario for 2035, which considers changes in travel frequency, length of stay, travel distance, and 

technological efficiency gains, UNWTO-UNEP-WMO (2008) estimate that emissions will increase by about 

135% compared to 2005. Similar figures have been presented by the World Economic Forum (WEF, 2009). 

Aviation will remain the most important emissions sub-sector of the tourism system, with expected 

emissions growth by a factor of 2-3. As global climate policy will seek to achieve considerable emission 

reductions in the order of 50% of 1990 emission levels by 2050, aviation, and tourism more generally, will 

be in stark conflict with achieving global climate goals, possibly accounting for a large share of the 

sustainable emissions budget. 

39

Lines A and B in Figure 4.2.1 represent emission pathways for the global economy under a -3% per year (A) and -6% 

per year (B) emission reduction scenario, with emissions peaking in 2015 (A) and 2025 (B) respectively. Both scenarios 

are based on the objective of avoiding a +2°C warming threshold by 2100 (for details see Scott et al. 2010). As 

indicated, a business-as-usual scenario in tourism, considering current trends in energy efficiency gains, would lead to 

rapid growth in emissions from the sector (line C). By 2060, the tourism sector would account for emissions exceeding 

the emissions budget for the entire global economy (intersection of line C with line A or B). 

Figure 4.2.1: Global CO2 emission pathways versus unrestricted tourism emissions growth 

(Source: Scott et al., 2010) 

Achieving emission reductions in tourism in line with global climate policy will consequently demand 

considerable changes in the tourism system, with a reduction in overall energy use, and a switch to 

renewable energy sources. Such efforts will have to be supported through technology change, carbon 

management, climate policy, behavioural change, education and research (Gössling, 2010). Carbon taxes 

and emissions trading are generally seen as key mechanisms to achieve emissions reductions (OECD & 

UNEP, 2011). Destinations and tourism stakeholders consequently need to engage in planning for a lowcarbon 

future. 

The Caribbean perspective 

It is widely acknowledged that the Caribbean accounts for only 0.2% of global emissions of CO2, with a 

population of 40 million, i.e. 0.6% of the world’s population (Dulal et al., 2009). Within the region, 

emissions are however highly unequally distributed between countries, Figure 4.2.2. For instance, Trinidad 

& Tobago, as an oil-producing country, has annual per capita emissions reaching those of high emitters 

such as the USA (25 t CO2). The Cayman Islands (7 t CO2 per capita per year) are emitting in the same order 

as countries such as Sweden. Turks and Caicos is emitting more (5.0 t CO2, in 2007; UNSTATS, 2009) on a 

per capita basis than the current world annual average of 4.3 t CO2, with estimated national total emissions 

of 183,000 t CO2, given a population of 36,600 (in 2008; DEPS, 2009). Note that no official estimate of 

greenhouse gas emissions is available. 

In the future, global emissions have to decline considerably below 4.3 t CO2 per year – the 

40

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests a decline in emissions by 20% by 2020 (IPCC, 

2007), corresponding to about 3 t CO2 per capita per year, a figure that also considers global population 

growth. While there is consequently room for many countries in the region to increase per capita 

emissions, including in particular Haiti, many of the more developed countries in the Caribbean, including 

Turks and Caicos, will need to adjust per capita emissions budgets downwards, i.e. reduce national 

emissions in the medium-term future. 

Figure 4.2.2: Per capita emissions of CO2 in selected countries in the Caribbean, 2005 

(Source: Hall et al., 2009) 

Important in the context of this report is that in most Caribbean countries, tourism is a major contributor to 

emissions of greenhouse gases (Simpson et al., 2008; see also country reports in the Risk Atlas). As these 

emissions are not usually quantified, the purpose of this assessment is to look in greater detail into energy 

use by the sector. 

The Turks and Caicos Islands 

Electricity is supplied to the islands by two providers under 50-year licenses from the Government. The 

islands of Providenciales, North, Middle and South Caicos are supplied by Fortis Turks and Caicos who 

operate Provo Power Company Ltd. (PPC) and Atlantic Equipment and Power (Turks and Caicos) Ltd. The 

latter serves South Caicos only. Turks & Caicos Utilities, Ltd. (TCU) supplies Grand Turk and Salt Cay (WRB, 

n.d.). 

PPC serves more than 9,000 customers corresponding to 85% of consumers in TCI and has an exclusive 

public supplier‘s license to provide service to the whole of Providenciales. This means that should any other 

entity apply to generate and distribute power on the island, PPC have the right to be notified and heard 

before a decision is made. In 2009, the utility had a total diesel-powered electricity generation capacity of 

54MW; peak demand in that year reached 29.6 MW. Recent acquisition and installation of 2 more efficient 

units should have raised capacity to 60 MW (46.3MW of medium speed diesel, and 17.7MW of high speed 

diesel plant) (Castalia, 2011). The first of the two engines was commissioned in October 2010 and the 

second was installed in August, 2011 (Fortis TCI, 2011). Table 4.2.1 shows the breakdown of demand by 

41

sector. According to these figures, hotels and supermarkets would have consumed 48.622 GWh of energy 

in 2009. 

Table 4.2.1: Electricity sales for PPC by sector, 2009 

Sector MWh % 

Residential 50,242 31.1 

Commercial 42,488 26.3 

Large hotel 27,141 16.8 

Small hotel/supermarket 21,486 13.3 

Water Co. 10,501 6.5 

Club Med. 5,008 3.1 

Government 2,908 1.8 

Streetlights 1,292 0.8 

Pine Cay 485 0.3 

Total 161,551 100 

42 

(Source: Castalia, 2011) 

TCU serves over 2,200 customers and has two diesel-fired plants with a total installed capacity of 

11.043 MW (Grand Turk has 10.3 MW and Salt Cay has 0.3 MW). The estimated peak demand is 4.5 MW. 

The relative lack of hotels means that residential and commercial customers represent the largest 

consumers, although given that the seat of government is on Grand Turk, they are also a significant 

customer (18% which, coupled with RO Units, reaches 25%), Table 4.2.2 (Castalia, 2011). 

Table 4.2.2: Electricity sales for TCU by sector, 2009 

Sector MWh % 

Residential 7,632 38.6 

Commercial 7,057 35.7 

Government 3,493 17.7 

Reverse Osmosis Units 1,417 7.2 

Streetlights 161 0.8 

Total 19,760 100 


As indicated in the introduction, tourism’s overall contribution to the Turks and Caicos economy is 

estimated to be in the order of 29 and 40% of GDP in the period 1995-2005(CDB, 2006), and preliminary 

data for 2007 puts the contribution from the hotel and restaurant sub-sector at 29% (DEPS, 2009). In the 

absence of detailed data on fuel use in tourism, the following section provides a bottom-up analysis to 

derive an estimate of emissions in this sector (Table 4.2.3).

Table 4.2.3: Assessment of CO2 emissions from tourism in The Turks and Caicos Islands, data for various years 

Tourism sub- Energy use Emissions % Assumptions 

sector 

Aviation 1) 

Road transport 2) 

Cruise ships 3) 

Accommodation 4) 

Activities 5) 

25,939 t fuel 81,679 t CO2 30 Bottom-up calculation based on market 

shares 

215 t fuel 689 t CO2

Trends in energy use in The Turks and Caicos Islands 

The following tables provide statistics for the growth in electricity consumption by sector for all islands 

combined (Table 4.2.4), and by island (Table 4.2.5). No further information is available on either bunker 

fuels, oil imports for generators (electricity production), or emissions of greenhouse gases. Consumption 

has increased across sectors with the commercial sector more than doubling over the 6 year period shown. 

Providenciales and Grand Turk have increased consumption by 82 and 71% respectively. Demand for power 

in Providenciales has grown consistently since the 1990s, driven by tourism and real estate development 

(especially hotels and condominiums) (Castalia, 2011). 

Table 4.2.4: Growth trends in energy consumption in Turks and Caicos by sector, 2002-2007 

MWh 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 

Residential 29,882 33,738 36,755 42,613 49,242 57,521 

Commercial 17,296 18,954 22,638 26,899 34,755 41,437 

Government 5,846 6,134 6,837 7,387 8,374 9,413 

Street lights 821 1,174 997 1,385 1,527 2,151 

Other 39,672 41,621 39,021 42,705 50,660 56,933 

Total 

consumption 

93,517 101,621 106,247 120,989 144,559 167,456 


Table 4.2.5: Growth trends in energy consumption in Turks and Caicos by island, 2002-2007 

MWh 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 

Grand Turk 12,370 13,045 14,968 16,260 19,208 21,205 

Salt Cay 302 320 340 348 384 405 

South Caicos 2,711 2,626 2,746 3,034 3,157 3,289 

Middle Caicos 326 333 354 387 422 510 

North Caicos 1,927 2,220 2,367 2,704 3,595 4,255 

Providenciales 75,407 82,582 84,944 97,679 117,165 137,064 

Pine Cay 474 495 528 577 628 728 


Specific trend analysis for the PPC supply area is presented in Figure 4.2.3 and shows strong average annual 

growth of 11.5% per year. Annual growth in peak demand was 22% in 2006; it declined to 10% in 2008 with 

the economic slowdown, and to less than 5% in 2009 when peak demand reached 29.6 MW. According to 

Castalia (2011) data from July 2010 shows a peak demand of 30.8MW, confirming the trend of slower 

growth. Commercial demand has been growing at 17.7% per year, while hotels have achieved stabilization 

of demand, now consuming 30.2% of electricity (Castalia, 2011). 

44

Figure 4.2.3: Evolution of electricity consumption by customer type for PPC 

45 


Peak demand in TCU‘s service area experienced significant growth from 2002 to 2008, increasing from 

2.3MW to 4.2MW. Figure 4.2.4 shows the sudden drop in demand (monthly consumption) following the 

impact of Hurricane Ike on Grand Turk, combined with the general economic slowdown and the political 

events in 2009. Demand has since picked up slowly and from early 2010 recovered to pre-hurricane levels 

(4.2MW). TCU anticipate demand to remain relatively flat for the coming four years (Castalia, 2011). 

Figure 4.2.4: Evolution of energy consumption for TCU, 2007-2010 


As outlined, energy use has increased considerably in recent years in Turks and Caicos although recent 

events have resulted in some levelling off in some sectors. It is unclear, how trends will develop, though 

enormous growth in international tourism and in particular cruise tourism would indicate that energy 

consumption in the islands is bound to see further strong growth once the global economic situation 

improves and governance of the country stabilises.

Energy policy 3 

The 2001 Environment Charter (OTEP, n.d.) lays out a general framework that according to Castalia (2011) 

is consistent with the proposed Energy Conservation Policy and Implementation Strategy. Under the 

Charter, the UK Government agrees to assist in funding projects of lasting benefit to the environment 

through the existing Environment Fund for the Overseas Territories, other sources of public funding, and 

helping to identify further funding partners. In addition the Turks and Caicos Government agrees to 

integrate environmental considerations in social and economic planning processes following international 

best practices and promote sustainable patterns of production and consumption, with specific mention of 

energy. 

In 2010, the Advisory Council on Renewable Energy recommended (Castalia, 2011): 

Supporting private investment in renewable energy technologies through the use of Crown Land, 

tax deferral and/or concessions 

Reviewing and considering the feasibility of renewable energy generation targets binding on 

utilities 

Changing building and planning regulations to support micro-generation and water efficiency 

Clarifying cost structures and incentives for existing suppliers to invest in renewable energy 

The Climate Change Green Paper highlights the need to develop an Energy Policy as an important 

adaptation strategy (Climate Change Committee, 2011b). It concludes that mitigation measures can 

provide useful benefits to countries such as energy cost savings and recognition as a low-carbon 

destination. “Increased use of renewable or alternative energy and the development of an energy 

policy will benefit the Turks and Caicos Islands through reduced air pollution, lower negative effects of 

fossil fuel pollution on the environment, and job creation as the Turks and Caicos Islands shifts away 

from its dependence on fossil fuels” (Climate Change Committee, 2011b). 

In 2011, a draft Energy Conservation Policy and Implementation Strategy was developed by Castalia (2011). 

The report provides a thorough assessment of the energy sector and puts forward a number of 

recommendations that form the basis of the suggested Implementation Strategy. In contrast to the 

suggestions put forward in the Green Paper, Castalia (2011) states that “the TCI are one of the smallest 

countries in the world—the price it would pay by mitigating greenhouse gas emissions would be hugely 

disproportionate to any benefits it could reap.” This is a surprising statement, and not well-based in the 

following calculations, which all underline that there are considerable economic and non-economic benefits 

associated with mitigation, particularly with a view on reducing vulnerabilities arising out of importdependencies 

of oil. The emphasis in the Castalia (2011) assessment is on energy efficiency and the 

reduction of electricity costs and prices, which is not in line with suggestions by supranational organizations 

to increase the cost of energy to reduce consumption (OECD & UNEP, 2011). Castalia (2011) recommends 

that mitigation of greenhouse gases should be pursued only as long as energy costs may be reduced. 

The suggested objectives for the Energy Conservation Policy put forward by Castalia (2011) are: 

To promote viable renewable energy and energy efficiency and conservation projects that will 

reduce the TCI’s dependency on imported fossil fuels, and therefore: 

3 In the absence of other documents, most of the following sections are based on Castalia (2011). 

46

- Reduce electricity costs and prices, as absolute priority, while also 

- Improving energy security, and 

- Increasing local and global environmental sustainability. 

Castalia (2011) have also recommended an Implementation Strategy and Action Plan which consists of 14 

key actions; the responsibility for which mostly lie with government. These are: 

Action 1: Change the regulation of the power sector to promote economically viable renewable 

energy at utility scale 

Action 2: Change the regulation of the power sector to promote economically viable renewable 

energy at distributed scale 

Action 3: PPC and TCU to establish a Grid Code 

Action 4: Change the regulation of the power sector to allow PPC and TCU to recover 

investments in energy efficiency 

Action 5: Identify the best waste management solution for the TCI, and establish a clear 

procurement process for implementing it 

Action 6: Favour the assessment and development of wind energy 

Action 7: Mandate Solar Water Heaters in new buildings, and promote them in existing ones 

Action 8: Promote efficient and renewable air conditioning in hotels 

Action 9: Promote widespread adoption of Compact Fluorescent Lights (CFLs) 

Action 10: Leave customs incentives largely as they are, but eliminate discriminations and loops 

for sub-standard equipment 

Action 11: Mandate Energy Efficiency in the Building Code and Development Manual 

Action 12: Procure an ESCO for retrofitting public buildings and marketing to large consumers 

Action 13: Negotiate an arrangement for retrofitting street lights 

Action 14: Outsource water operations in Grand Turk, South Caicos, and Salt Cay. 

Overall, it is notable that energy use associated with aviation and cruise ships, the two largest contributors 

to emissions in the tourism sector, is not mentioned in any of the policy documents. 

Reducing energy use and emissions 

The existing utilities have been assessed for efficiency in the Castalia (2011) report. The consultant found 

that PPC‘s system losses in 2009 were relatively high compared to those of other Caribbean utilities (10.3%) 

and TCU‘s system losses are the lowest among the Caribbean utilities considered (4.3%). Both utilities have 

plans for the installation of more efficient equipment and PPC has recently installed two efficient 

generators; the first in 2010 and the second in August 2011 (Fortis TCI, 2011). TCU’s plans for more efficient 

plant was put on hold following the damage inflicted by Hurricane Ike (Section 4.2.2). 

Actions 4, and 8 to 11 of the Implementation Strategy outlined above are initiatives that can be undertaken 

to address energy efficiency at all levels. 

Renewable energy 

Other than off-grid, small solar and wind systems at individual premises there is virtually no uptake of 

renewable energy in the Turks and Caicos though there is considerable renewable energy potential (Section 

5.2.3) (Castalia, 2011). 

Management at PPC remain cautious about investing in renewable energy. According to the President and 

CEO Eddinton Powell “There are significant opportunities in renewable energy under the right conditions, 

but experience has shown that electricity consumers and taxpayers will pay the price if the national policy 

47

is wrong” (FP Turks and Caicos, 2011a). The Company believe that since the sun and wind do not provide 

reliable power sources and require large up-front investments diesel generation (especially with newer and 

more efficient plants PPC has invested in) remains a reliable and cost-effective solution (FP Turks and 

Caicos, 2011a; Castalia, 2011). PPC management is however, considering a wind study for 2011, and has 

stated that it would not exclude purchasing power from an independent power producer that uses wind 

technology, provided that it were supplied at avoided cost and with satisfactory financial and operational 

safeguards (Castalia, 2011). The CEO also acknowledges that solar water heaters at the islands hotels may 

have economic potential (FP Turks and Caicos, 2011a). 

TCU have had a more proactive approach since the early when it secured all necessary permits and project 

finance to install wind turbines, but land grants were denied. TCU have obtained approval for installing 

meteorological towers on Crown Land for 3 years to conduct a detailed assessment, but no long-term 

approval for installing and operating a wind farm. In 2009, TCU submitted a proposal for a hybrid windsolar 

PV-diesel system including eight to nine wind turbines (650-850kW each) and about 1MW of solar PV. 

TCU‘s preliminary estimate for renewable energy capacity are 32% for wind; and 18-20% for solar PV 

(Castalia, 2011:21). 

The barriers to implementing energy efficiency and renewable energy initiatives are discussed in Section 

5.2.1. 

4.2.2. Vulnerability of the Energy Sector to Climate Change 

Two key impacts related to energy and emissions are of relevance for the tourism sector and the wider 

economy. First of all, energy prices have fluctuated in the past, and there is evidence that the cost of oil on 

world markets will continue to increase. Secondly, if the international communities’ climate objective of 

stabilizing temperatures at 2°C by 2100 is taken seriously, both regulation and market-based instruments 

will have to be implemented to cut emissions of greenhouse gases. Such measures would affect the cost of 

mobility, in particular, air transport and cruise tourism, both being highly energy- and emission-intense 

sectors. The following sections will discuss past and future energy costs, the challenges of global climate 

policy and how these interact to create vulnerabilities in the Turks and Caicos tourism sector. Additional 

discussion is included on how climate change impacts can affect the physical infrastructure of the energy 

sector. 

Energy costs 

High and rising energy costs should self-evidently lead to interest in more efficient operations, but this does 

not appear to be the case in tourism generally. Since the turn of the 19 th century, world oil prices only once 

exceeded those of the energy crisis in 1979 after the Iranian revolution. Even though oil prices declined 

because of the global financial crisis in 2008 (Figure 4.2.5) – for the first time since 1981 (IEA, 2009) - world 

oil prices have already begun to climb again in 2009, and are projected to rise further. The International 

Energy Agency (IEA) (IEA, 2010) projects for instance, that oil prices will almost double between 2009-2035 

(in 2009 prices). Notably, Figure 4.2.5 shows the decline in oil prices in 2009; in March 2011, Bloomberg 

reported Brent spot prices exceeding USS120/barrel. 

48

Figure 4.2.5: Crude oil prices 1869-2009 

49 

(Source: Williams, 2010). 

The IEA anticipates that even under its New Policies Scenario, which favours energy efficiency and 

renewable energies, energy demand will be 36% higher in 2035 than in 2008, with fossil fuels continuing to 

dominate demand (IEA, 2010). At the same time there is reason to believe that ‘peak oil’, i.e. the maximum 

capacity to produce oil, may be passed in the near future. The UK Energy Research Centre, for instance, 

concludes in a review of studies that a global peak in oil production is likely before 2030, with a significant 

risk of a peak before 2020 (UKERC, 2009). Note that while there are options to develop alternative fuels, 

considerable uncertainties are associated with these options, for instance with regard to costs, safety, 

biodiversity loss, or competition with food production (e.g. Harvey and Pilgrim, 2011). Rising costs for 

conventional fuels will therefore become increasingly relevant, particularly for transport, the sector most 

dependent on fossil fuels with the least options to substitute energy sources. Within the transport sector, 

aviation will be most affected due to limited options to use alternative fuels, which have to meet specific 

demands regarding safety and energy density (cf. Nygren et al., 2009; Upham et al., 2009). Likewise, while 

there are huge unconventional oil resources, including natural gas, heavy oil and tar sands, oil shales and 

coal, there are long lead times in development, necessitating significant investments. The development of 

these oil sources is also likely to lead to considerably greater environmental impacts than the development 

of conventional oil resources (IEA, 2009). 

Fuel costs are even higher in the Turks and Caicos Islands for three main reasons. The first is the lack of 

deep water ports meaning that small volumes must be shipped by small barges more frequently, thereby 

increasing transport costs, than if a large ship could offload into a large storage facility. The second is the 

size of the business, especially TCU, which has struggled to secure competitive bids for supply of fuel. The 

final reason is the inability to use cheaper fuels, such as heavy fuel oil, given the size of the plants used to 

generate the electricity. Initiatives being undertaken to address the issue of storage are presented in 

Section 5.2.2. Regional initiatives for increased energy integration such as the planned East Caribbean Gas 

Pipeline from Trinidad and Tobago, and undersea transmission cables for electricity generated with 

geothermal sources such as Dominica‘s are too far from the Turks and Caicos to be of benefit.

These findings on fuel prices are relevant for the tourism system as a whole because mobility is a 

precondition for tourism. Rising oil prices will usually be passed on to the customer, a situation evident in 

2008, when many airlines added a fuel surcharge to plane tickets in order to compensate for the spike in oil 

prices. Increased travel costs can lead to a shift from long haul- to shorter-haul destinations. The cost of 

energy is one of the most important determinants in the way people travel, and the price of oil will 

influence travel patterns, with some evidence that in particular low-fare and long-haul flights are 

susceptible to changes in prices (e.g. Mayor and Tol, 2008). Moreover, it deserves mention that oil prices 

are not a simple function of supply and demand, involving different parameters such as long-term contracts 

and hedging strategies, social and political stability in oil producing countries as well as the global security 

situation generally. This is well illustrated in the volatility of oil prices in the five-year period 2002-2009, 

when the world market price of aviation fuel oscillated between a low of US $25 in 2002 (Doganis, 2006) 

and US $147 in mid-2008 (Gössling and Upham, 2009). 

The huge rise in oil prices, which was not expected by most actors in tourism, had a severe impact 

particularly on aviation. As late as December 2007, IATA projected the average 2008-price of a barrel of oil 

at US $87, up 6% from the average price level in 2007 (IATA, 2007). In early 2008, IATA corrected its 

projection of fuel prices to an average of US $106 per barrel for 2008, an increase of 22% over its previous 

estimate. However, in July 2008, oil prices reached US $147 per barrel, and IATA corrected its forecast for 

average oil prices in 2008 to almost US $142 per barrel, a price 75% higher than a year ago (IATA, 2008). In 

autumn 2008, again seemingly unexpected by the overwhelming majority of actors in tourism, the global 

financial system collapsed due to speculation of financial institutions with various forms of investment. As a 

result, the global economy went into recession, and by the end of 2008, oil prices had reached a low of US 

$40 per barrel. 

Fuel price volatility, in late 2008 exceeding 30% of operational costs (IATA 2009, see Figure 4.2.6), had a 

range of negative impacts for airlines. Before the financial crisis, it appeared as if low-fare carriers would be 

severely affected by high fuel prices, with even profitable airlines reporting falling profits, grounded aircraft 

and cancelled routes: high fuel prices had clearly affected the perception of travellers to fly at quasi-zero 

costs (cf. Gössling and Upham, 2009). However, when fuel costs declined because of the financial crisis, low 

cost carriers were apparently seen by many travellers as the only airlines still offering flights at reasonable 

prices, reversing passenger choices to the disadvantage of the flag carriers. These examples show that high 

and rising oil prices, as well as price volatility can significantly affect tourism and in particular airlines, 

increasing destination vulnerability. 

50

Climate policy 

Figure 4.2.6: Fuel costs as part of a worldwide operating cost 

51 

(Source: IATA, 2009) 

As described in the introduction climate change is high on the global political agenda, but so far, the 

European Union is the only region in the world with a legally binding target for emission reductions, 

imposed on the largest polluters. While it is likely that the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) will not 

seriously affect aviation, the only tourism sub-sector to be directly integrated in the scheme by 2012 (e.g. 

Mayor and Tol, 2009, see also Gössling et al., 2008), discussions are ongoing of how to control emissions 

from consumption not covered by the EU ETS. This is likely to lead to the introduction of significant carbon 

taxes in the EU in the near future (EurActiv, 2009). Moreover, the EU ETS will set a tighter cap on emissions 

year-on-year, and in the medium-term future, i.e. around 2015-2025, it can be assumed that the 

consumption of energy-intense products and services will become perceivably more expensive. There is 

also evidence of greater consumer pressure to implement pro-climate policies. While climate policy is only 

emerging in other regions, it can be assumed that in the near future, further legislation to reduce emissions 

will be introduced – the new air passenger duty in the UK is a recent example, and has already been 

followed by Germany’s departure tax (as of January 1, 2011). 

As of November 1, 2009, the UK introduced a new air passenger duty (APD) for aviation, which replaced its 

earlier, two-tiered APD. The new APD distinguishes four geographical bands, representing one-way 

distances from London to the capital city of the destination country/territory, and based on two rates, one 

for standard class of travel, and one for other classes of travel (Table 4.2.6).

Band, and 

approximate 

distance in miles 

from 

Table 4.2.6: UK air passenger duty as of November 1, 2009 

In the lowest class of travel (reduced 

rate) 

From November 1, 

2009 to October 

31, 2010 


2010 

In other than the lowest class of travel * 

(Standard rate) 


2009 to October 

31, 2010 


2010 

Band A (0-2,000) £11 £12 £22 £24 

Band B (2,001- 

4,000) £45 £60 £90 £120 

Band C (4,001- 

£50 £75 £100 £150 

6,000) 

Band D (over 6,000) £55 £85 £110 £170 

* 

The reduced rates apply where the passengers are carried in the lowest class of travel on any flight unless the seat 

pitch exceeds 1.016 metres (40 inches), in which case, whether there is one or more than one class of travel the 

standard rates apply. 

(Source: HM Revenue & Customs, 2008) 

Scientifically, there is general consensus that a “serious” climate policy approach will be paramount in the 

transformation of tourism towards becoming climatically sustainable, as significant technological 

innovation and behavioural change will demand strong regulatory environments (e.g. Barr et al., 2010; 

Bows et al., 2009; Hickman and Banister, 2007; see also Giddens, 2009). As outlined by Scott et al. (2010), 

“serious” would include the endorsement of national and international mitigation policies by tourism 

stakeholders, a global closed emission trading scheme for aviation and shipping, the introduction of 

significant and constantly rising carbon taxes on fossil fuels, incentives for low-carbon technologies and 

transport infrastructure, and, ultimately, the development of a vision for a fundamentally different global 

tourism economy. 

While this would demand a rather radical change from current business models in tourism, all of these 

aspects of a low-carbon tourism system are principally embraced by business organisations. For instance, 

the World Economic Forum (WEF, 2009) suggests as mechanisms to achieve emission reductions i) a carbon 

tax on non-renewable fuels, ii) economic incentives for low-carbon technologies, iii) a cap-and-trade system 

for developing and developed countries, and iv) the further development of carbon trading markets. 

Furthermore, evidence from countries seeking to implement low-carbon policies suggests that the tourism 

businesses themselves also call for the implementation of legislation to curb emissions, a result of the wish 

for “rules for all”, with pro-climate oriented businesses demanding regulation and the introduction of 

market-based instruments to reduce emissions (cf. Ernst & Young, 2010; PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2010). 

There is consequently growing consensus among business leaders and policy makers that emissions of 

greenhouse gases represent a market failure. The absence of a price on pollution encourages pollution, 

prevents innovation, and creates a market situation where there is little incentive to innovate (OECD, 

2010). While governments have a wide range of environmental policy tools at their disposal to address this 

problem, including regulatory instruments, market-based instruments, agreements, subsidies, or 

information campaigns, the fairest and most efficient way of reducing emissions is increasingly seen in 

higher fuel prices, i.e. the introduction of a tax on fuel or emissions (e.g. Sterner, 2007; Mayor and Tol, 

2007, 2008, 2009, 2010a,b; see also OECD, 2009 and 2010; WEF, 2009; PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2010). 

Compared to other environmental instruments, such as regulations concerning emission intensities 

or technology prescriptions, environmentally related taxation encourages both the lowest cost 

abatement across polluters and provides incentives for abatement at each unit of pollution. These 

52

taxes can also be a highly transparent policy approach, allowing citizens to clearly see if individual 

sectors or pollution sources are being favoured over others. (Source: OECD, 2010) 

The overall conclusion is that emerging climate policy may be felt more in the future, and tourism 

stakeholders should seek to prepare for this. 

Vulnerabilities 

Generally, a destination could be understood as vulnerable when it is highly dependent on tourism, and 

when its tourism system is energy intense with only a limited share of revenues staying in the national 

economy. Figure 4.2.7 shows this for various islands, expressed as a risk assessment considering the share 

of tourism revenues as a percentage of GDP and the energy intensity of the tourism product expressed as 

eco-efficiency. 

Destination climate policy risk assessment: eco-efficiency and tourism revenues as share of GDP. Notes: Lines 

represent the weighted average values for all 10 islands; H is either high (unfavourable) eco-efficiency or high 

dependency on tourism, L is either low (favourable) eco-efficiency or low dependency on tourism, eco-efficiency=local 

spending compared to total emissions, i.e. not considering air fares. 

Figure 4.2.7: Vulnerability of selected islands, measured as eco-efficiency and revenue share 

(Source: Gössling et al., 2008) 

While global climate policy affecting transportation is currently only emerging, there are already a number 

of publications seeking to analyse the consequences of climate policy for tourism-dependent islands. There 

is general consensus that current climate policy is not likely to affect mobility because international 

aviation is exempted from value-added tax (VAT), a situation not likely to change in the near future due to 

the existence of a large number of bilateral agreements. Furthermore, emissions trading as currently 

envisaged by the EU would, upon implementation in 2012, increase the cost of flying by just about €3 per 

1,000 passenger-kilometres (pkm) at permit prices of €25 per tonne of CO2 (Scott et al., 2010). Similar 

findings are presented by Mayor and Tol (2010b), who model that a price of €23/t CO2 per permit will have 

a negligible effect on emissions developments. Other considerable increases in transport costs due to 

taxation are not currently apparent in any of the 45 countries studied by OECD & UNEP (2011), though such 

taxes may be implemented in the future. The example of the UK has been outlined above and Germany 

53

introduced a departure tax of €8, €25 and €45 for flights 4,000 km as of 

January 1, 2011. 

The implications of the EU ETS for tourism in island states were modelled by Gössling et al. (2008). The 

study examined the implications of the EU-ETS for European outbound travel costs and tourism demand for 

ten tourism-dependent less developed island states with diverse geographic and tourism market 

characteristics. It confirmed that the EU-ETS would only marginally affect demand to these countries, i.e. 

causing a slight delay in growth in arrival numbers from Europe through to 2020, when growth in arrivals 

would be 0.2% to 5.8% lower than in the baseline scenario (Gössling et al., 2008). 

As the Gössling et al. (2008) study only looked at climate policy, but omitted oil prices, Pentelow and Scott 

(2010) modelled the consequences of a combination of climate policy and rising oil prices. A tourist arrivals 

model was constructed to understand how North American and European tourist demand to the Caribbean 

region would be affected. A sensitivity analysis that included 18 scenarios with different combinations of 

three GHG mitigation policy scenarios for aviation (represented by varied carbon prices), two oil price 

projections, and three price elasticity estimates was conducted to examine the impact on air travel arrivals 

from eight outbound market nations to the Caribbean region. Pentelow and Scott (2010) concluded that a 

combination of low carbon price and low oil price would have very little impact on arrivals growth to the 

Caribbean region through to 2020, with arrivals 1.28% to 1.84% lower than in the BAU scenario (the range 

attributed to the price elasticities chosen). The impact of a high carbon price and high oil price scenario was 

more substantive, with arrivals 2.97% to 4.29% lower than the 2020 BAU scenario depending on the price 

elasticity value used. The study concluded: 

It is important to emphasize that the number of arrivals to the region would still be projected to 

grow from between 19.7 million to 19.9 million in 2010 to a range of 30.1 million to 31.0 million in 

2020 (Source: Pentelow and Scott, 2010). 

A detailed case study of Jamaica further revealed the different sensitivity of market segments (package 

vacations) to climate policy and oil price related rises in air travel costs (Pentelow and Scott, 2010; see also 

Schiff and Becken, 2010 for a New Zealand study of price elasticities). Pentelow and Scott (2010) concluded 

that further research is required to understand the implications of oil price volatility and climate policy for 

tourist mobility, tour operator routing and the longer- term risks to tourism development in the Caribbean. 

Overall, current frameworks to mitigate GHG emissions from aviation do not seem to represent a 

substantial threat to tourism development (Mayor and Tol, 2007; Gössling et al., 2008; Rothengatter, 

2009), but new regulatory regimes and market-based instruments to reduce emissions in line with global 

policy objectives would cause changes in the global tourism system that could affect in particular SIDS. To 

anticipate these changes and to prepare the vulnerable tourism economies in the Caribbean to these 

changes should thus be a key management goal for tourism stakeholders. 

Climate change impacts on energy generation, distribution and infrastructure 

A report on the potential impacts of climate change on the energy sector published by the U.S. Department 

of Energy distinguishes between direct impacts: which affect energy resource availability, fuel and power 

production, transmission and distribution processes; and indirect impacts which are brought on by other 

sectors through forward or reverse linkages with the energy sector, and may include competition for 

shared resources, trends in demand and supply and pricing. These impacts are not only limited to 

traditional (fossil fuel based) energy systems, but renewable systems as well. While direct impacts are more 

visible, the costs of indirect impacts can be difficult to quantify and often exceed those of direct impacts, 

given the inter-relationships between energy and other sectors (U.S. Department of Energy/National 

Energy Technology Laboratory, 2007). Similarly, Contreras-Lisperguer and de Cuba (2008) have outlined a 

54

number of potential impacts of climate change on both traditional and renewable energy systems, with 

varying consequences for energy production and transmission efficiency, energy prices and trends in 

demand and consumption. The Turks and Caicos Islands’ energy production is entirely based on diesel 

powered plants with some efforts underway to look at wind and solar alternatives. Potential physical 

climate change impacts on these systems are outlined below. Special consideration should be given to the 

physical impacts of climate change that can affect these systems in the planning process. 

An increase in the intensity (and possibly frequency) of severe low pressure systems, such as hurricanes, 

has the potential to affect both traditional and renewable energy production and distribution 

infrastructure, including generating plants, transmission lines, and pipelines. The energy-based 

infrastructure in The Turks and Caicos Islands is therefore vulnerable to impacts from tropical storms and 

hurricanes during any given year. Some of the more vulnerable components of the energy system include 

transmission lines, poles and other relatively light, above ground infrastructure, which can suffer significant 

damage from high winds. In 2008, Hurricane Ike all but destroyed the distribution network (Castalia, 2011). 

The Managing Director of TCU estimated that over 95% of the system had been affected including poles, 

lines, line hardware, transformers, generator buildings, etc. PPC suffered the greatest losses in South Caicos 

with 90% of the poles broken off (ECLAC, 2008). Modern wind turbines stop rotating when wind speed 

exceeds approximately 55 mph to protect the equipment and the structures are typically designed to 

withstand winds in excess of 150 mph. The turbines installed in Nevis are designed to be winched down in 

the event of an approaching hurricane (C. Farrell, NEVLEC, personal communication, July 26, 2011). TCU has 

considered this type of arrangement as well as Class 1 turbines designed to withhold extreme gusts of 250 

km/hr, and average annual wind speeds of 10 m/s. 

In the aftermath of extreme weather, the process of restoring transmission and proper operation of 

generating facilities depends on road access and the amount of supplies available to replace infrastructure 

components that have been damaged or destroyed. In Grand Turk following Hurricane Ike, the desalination 

plant had to borrow two generators in order to continue supplying water for the 2 weeks that electricity 

was unavailable. It was estimated that it would take approximately three months for the TCU rehabilitation 

work to be completed (up to 6 weeks for PPC) and replacement equipment would have to be sourced from 

North America (ECLAC, 2008). The vulnerability of the sector to extreme weather events therefore has 

even greater implications for increasing the recovery period and extending the loss of productivity in all 

other sectors within the country following an event (U.S. Department of Energy/National Energy 

Technology Laboratory, 2007; IPCC, 2007b; Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008) (See Section 0). 

Model projections for The Turks and Caicos Islands suggest an increase in mean annual temperatures, as 

well as the number of ‘hot’ days and nights to as much as 81% of the days per year by 2080, and a possible 

disappearance of ‘cold’ nights (See Section 3). National energy demand and consumption for heating and 

cooling purposes may increase in response to extremes in diurnal temperatures. Higher temperatures have 

also been shown to reduce the efficiency of energy generation at thermal power plants, similar to those 

used in Turks and Caicos. The climate modelling projections also indicate a decrease in mean annual 

rainfall, (although these predictions are more uncertain than temperature changes) which may affect water 

availability for non-contact cooling of power generators (Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008), (See 

Section 4.1 on issues of Water Availability). 

The utility companies in Turks and Caicos have accepted that wind and solar power appear to be the most 

viable alternatives to fossil fuels. Alternative energy sources, while they are environmentally more 

sustainable, also face challenges from climate variability. Wind is generated by temperature gradients 

which result from differential heating of the earth’s surface. Based on this relationship, changes in spatial 

temperature gradients caused by land use change, reductions in solar incidence and changes in 

55

atmospheric circulation can be argued to result in wind pattern shifts and therefore wind energy potential. 

Climate models are inconclusive for projections of wind speed changes (See Section 3). Similarly, changes in 

solar radiation incidence and increases in temperature can impact the effectiveness of electrical generation 

by photovoltaic cells and solar thermal energy collection. The projected increase in the number of sunshine 

hours for The Turks and Caicos Islands over the next few decades, however, increases the viability of using 

photovoltaic technology – even if only on the basis of increasing incidence of sunshine (IPCC, 2007b; 

Contreras-Lisperguer & de Cuba, 2008). 

Climate change, ocean-based impacts on the energy system include storm surge events and SLR. These 

processes are a threat primarily to infrastructure located within the coastal zone, and within the impact 

range of these events. Storm surge predictions for Grand Turk indicate that all but one of the power and 

water utilities is located within the inundation zone for the surge + run-up scenario (ECLAC, 2008). 

The likelihood of climate change impacting on energy systems will vary. However, an assessment of the 

vulnerability of The Turks and Caicos Islands’ systems should be prioritized, especially in the case of 

renewable energy sources that are being planned and which depend on specific climate parameters and 

priority coastal infrastructure such as power plants. 

56

4.3. Agriculture and Food Security 


Climate change related impacts on agriculture have in recent times been the focus of discussion and 

research on an international level. It is anticipated that climatic change will diminish agricultural potentials 

in some regions thereby affecting the global food system. The IAASTD Global Report (International 

Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development, 2009) stresses the need 

to adopt a more practical approach to agricultural research that requires participation from farmers who 

hold the traditional knowledge in food production. 

This research examines the relationship between agriculture and tourism within the framework of climate 

change, and seeks to develop adaptations options to support national food security based on experience 

and knowledge gained from local small-scale farmers and agricultural technicians. The study is exploratory 

in nature and the findings will be assimilated to develop national and regional projects that promote 

climate conscious farms and sustainable food production in the Caribbean. 

4.3.2. The Importance of Agriculture to National Development 

Records from the local chamber of commerce and the department of economic planning and statistics 

reveal that there has been chronic neglect and under-investment in the agriculture sector in the Turks and 

Caicos Islands over a sustained period of time. National accounts statistics indicate that sector’s 

contribution to GDP is about 0.65% (DEPS, 2011). 

However, The Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands recognizes that a viable agricultural sector will 

help to diversify the economy, reduce the impact of external shocks and increase food security. The 

government’s plan is to commercialize farming, notably in North Caicos, as a means of creating new 

business and employment opportunities (Wetherell, 2010). 

4.3.3. An Analysis of the Agricultural Sector in the Turks & Caicos Islands 

An evaluation of agricultural investment opportunities in the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI Invest, 2004) 

shows that the majority of agricultural activity takes place on North and Middle Caicos on small holdings. 

About 2.33% of the total land mass is considered to be arable land. North Caicos has about 9,300 acres of 

arable land and areas where fresh water may be found. In 2009 the Government established a fully-fledged 

Department of Agriculture and a demonstration farm in North Caicos which has exhibited the potential for 

local food production, successfully growing crops such as spring onions, peppers, tomatoes, cabbages, 

okras, cantaloupe, aubergine, cucumbers, papayas, melons, herbs and condiments (DEPS, 2011). However 

an assessment of the agricultural sector conducted by Worden and Worden (2010) suggests that there is 

limited agricultural community benefit derived from the not-for-profit Government Farm. 

The Department for Economics Planning and Statistics (2009) reports that more than 90% of food currently 

consumed in Turks and Caicos is imported from the U.S., Haiti and the Dominican Republic. The annual food 

import bill in 2008-09 was approximately US $63 million. The main imports were fruits and vegetables 

(28.5%), meals and meat preparations (24%) and cereals (15%). 

Mangoes, coconuts, citrus fruits, bananas, plantains, corn and a wide range of legumes are cultivated by 

the local population for household consumption. Agro processing and post harvest facilities in the Turks 

57

and Caicos Islands are limited, and there are presently no commercial cottage industries on any of the 

islands. 

Fishing is a significant activity in the Turks and Caicos Islands (see Section 4.5) and catches are dominated 

by lobster and queen conch, both of which are processed and exported to the United States. Groupers and 

snappers are utilised for local consumption; and the fishing infrastructure is organized and equipped with 

cold storage facilities and processing plants. 

4.3.4. Women and Youth in TCI Agriculture 

The Turks and Caicos Islands Social Indicators Report (DEPS, 2008b) indicates that up until 2006 there were 

only 152 people directly employed in agriculture, accounting for a mere 0.84% of the total working 

population. Since these figures were not disaggregated by gender or age groups, it is difficult to form a 

demographic profile for the farmer population in the Turks and Caicos Islands. 

4.3.5. Climate Change Related Issues and Agricultural Vulnerability in the Turks 

& Caicos Islands 

Although agriculture constitutes a minor industry in the Turks and Caicos Islands, the sector exhibits a high 

vulnerability to the existing climate, and is especially susceptible to extreme weather events. An ECLAC 

(2008) disaster assessment found that the passage of Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike within days 

of each other in 2008 caused almost complete devastation to vegetable, fruit and root crops in Turks and 

Caicos. Tree crops including coconuts, sapodillas, sugar apples, avocadoes and mangoes, were also severely 

damaged by hurricane winds. Commercial fishers lost trap boats, traps, and sustained structural damage to 

three processing plants which hindered fishing activities following the hurricane and led to spoilage of 

some stock. 

4.3.6. Vulnerability Enhancing Factors: Agriculture, Land Use and Soil 

Degradation in the Turks & Caicos Islands 

The main vulnerability enhancing factor for land use and soil degradation in the Turks and Caicos Islands 

pertains to inequitable and uncontrolled land use practices. The increasing number of tourist resort 

infrastructure and unprecedented development in the form of numerous luxury homes hinders prospects 

for building a sustainable agriculture sector. A press release from the British Foreign ad Commonwealth 

Office (2010), referring to the Turks and Caicos Islands Commission of Inquiry Report (2009), identified the 

need for implementation of a new crown land policy to address some of the related issues such as 

improper land use, sale of land to non-nationals for residential and commercial development, and 

inconsistent record keeping. 

4.3.7. Social Vulnerability of Agricultural Communities in the Turks & Caicos 

Islands 

The Turks & Caicos Islands Investment Agency (2004) distinctly identifies North Caicos as the potential 

bread basket of the islands. In terms of agricultural communities, the settlements of Bottle Creek, Whitby, 

Sandy Point and Kew have been named although the island profiles suggest that presently there is 

significantly less farming activity now than before. The social vulnerability of agriculture in the Turks and 

58

Caicos Islands stems from the fact that the sector is fragmented by nature, with farmers scattered across 

the various islands and farming is done on a very small scale; this limits the capacity for agricultural 

advancement and for enabling food security. 

4.3.8. Economic Vulnerability: Climate Change & Agricultural Outputs in the 

Turks & Caicos Islands 

Given the limited investment in agriculture in Turks and Caicos, only one or two commercial farms are likely 

to endure substantial losses from the variability associated with climatic conditions. The demand for local 

produce far outweighs supply (TCI Invest, 2009) and TCI trade statistics (2009) shows the Turks and Caicos 

Islands is a net- food importing country, with imports amounting to more than US $63 million in 2008. The 

main imports were fruits and vegetables (28.5%), meals and meat preparations (24%) and cereals (15%). 

The economic vulnerability of Turks and Caicos to climate change is directly related to its heavy 

dependence on food imports. Nationals have very little resilience for food supply in the event of decreased 

availability from their source markets (the U.S., Haiti and Dominican Republic) especially if the shortage is 

due to an extreme weather event. 

59

4.4. Human Health 


The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) defines health as 

including ‘physical, social and psychological wellbeing’ (Confalonieri, et al., 2007). An understanding of the 

impacts of climate change on human health is important because of its impact on the livelihoods of the 

people on a local scale and to the economy on a national level. In endemic countries, the environmental 

and social conditions make particular populations vulnerable to further disease outbreaks. Climate change 

has the potential to further impact the quality of the environment and the resilience of the ecosystems 

thereby increasing the risk of disease epidemics. 

Health is an important issue in the tourism industry because tourists are susceptible to acquiring diseases 

transmitted by insect vectors. In addition, air travel is responsible for a large number of diseases which are 

carried from tourist destinations to Europe (Gössling, 2005) and elsewhere in the world. This is highly 

relevant when one considers that approximately 75% of travellers become ill while abroad, most often 

from infectious diseases; morbidity is most often due to diarrhoea or respiratory infections (Sanford, 2004). 

It is also important because it can have consequences for tourist destination demand which is a significant 

contributor to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Small Island Developing States (SIDS). 

The potential effects of climate change on public health can be direct or indirect (Confalonieri, et al., 2007; 

Ebi, et al., 2006; Patz, et al., 2000). Direct effects include those associated with extreme weather events 

such as heat stress, changes in precipitation, sea-level rise and natural disasters or more frequent extreme 

weather events. While indirect effects are associated with changes in the environment and ecosystem as 

well as the impacts to various sectors such as water, agriculture and the economy on a whole (Confalonieri, 

et al., 2007). Both direct and indirect effects include the impact of climate change on the natural 

environment and can affect food security and agriculture sector, and increase the susceptibility of 

populations to respiratory diseases and food- and water-borne related diseases (Confalonieri, et al., 2007; 

Githeko and Woodward, 2003; Patz, et al., 2000; Taylor et al., 2009). 

The Turks and Caicos Islands has been classified as a “middle-upper income group country” (WHO-AIMS, 

2009). The quality of health care in the Turks and Caicos reflects that of a country with a fairly high 

standard of living and health care services as demonstrated in very low crude birth rates. See Table 4.4.1 

for statistics relevant to the health sector. Epidemiological statistics also indicate that the overall incidence 

of communicable diseases such as dengue and malaria is also very low on the island. There have been 

recent developments in the climate change sector with the preparation of the Turks and Caicos Islands 

Climate Change Green Paper that noted the potential impact of disease outbreaks on the tourism sector, 

that is, a decline in the number of visitors (Climate Change Committee, 2011b). The draft Climate Change 

Policy of the Turks and Caicos Islands was completed in September 2011. It focused on environmental 

education and awareness, the need for increased vector surveillance, increased preventative health care 

facilities and the strengthening of the health care system in areas related to pandemics and epidemics 

(Climate Change Committee, 2011a). 

60

Table 4.4.1: Selected statistics relevant to the health sector of the Turks and Caicos Islands 

4.4.2. Direct Impacts 

Indicators Statistics 

Population 36,605 (2008) 1 

Unemployment rate 5.4% (2007) 1 

Poverty rate 26%(2000) 2 

Expenditure on Public Health 6%(2006) 1 

Life Expectancy at Birth 75.42 yrs (2009) 3 

Birth rate (per 1,000) 12.4 (2008) 1 

Death rate (per 1,000) 1.8 (2008) 1 

Weather related mortality and morbidity 

Source: (DEPS, 2009 1 ; Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a 2 ; WHO-AIMS, 2009 3 ) 

Mortality and morbidity rates due to injuries sustained during natural disasters such as hurricanes, tropical 

storms and floods are important considerations when assessing the vulnerability of a country to climate 

change. The Turks and Caicos Islands are brushed or hit by a hurricane once in every 2.17 years (Hurricane 

City, 2011). From observed data North Atlantic hurricanes and tropical storms appear to have increased in 

intensity during the last 30 years and modelling projections indicate that the trend is expected to continue 

in the future, specifically due to intensification of weather phenomena rather than increases in frequency 

(See Section 3). The Turks and Caicos Islands Climate Change Green Paper has stated that extreme weather 

events can impact human populations, either directly through physical bodily injuries or through the 

disruption of water and electricity utilities (Climate Change Committee, 2011b; ECLAC, 2008) which can 

then affect sanitation and environmental health conditions. 

One of the most recent weather events to affect the Turks and Caicos Islands was Hurricane Ike and Storm 

Hanna in 2008. These systems were estimated to have damaged 95% of buildings, with the greatest 

impacts on Turks Islands and on South Caicos (ECLAC, 2008). The Grand Turk Hospital was also damaged. 

Displacement of persons and loss of shelter are also important because of the associated mental and 

physical health implications. For instance, due to Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike, more than 700 persons 

we left homeless (ECLAC, 2008). Displacement also affected national health staff (PAHO, 2008). The islands 

of the Turks and Caicos vary in size and geographical features. As a consequence, the health impact to the 

population varies on each island. 

Increased temperature and the effect of heat 

Increasing temperatures can result in heat stress in a population and heat wave events have been found to 

be associated with short-term increases in mortality globally (Confalonieri, et al., 2007) as well as morbidity 

related to heat exhaustion and dehydration (Hajat, et al., 2010; Sanford, 2004). The elderly and young are 

more susceptible than other groups as well as persons with chronic illnesses, people doing manual labour 

and persons who gain their livelihood outdoors (e.g. construction workers and fishermen). Increased 

temperatures can have a negative impact on persons prone to, or suffering from cardiovascular diseases 

(Cheng and Su, 2010; Worfolk, 2000) which could be exacerbated by prolonged exposure. In the Turks and 

Caicos Islands Climate Change Green Paper it notes that if temperatures increase, there is a potential for 

health impacts due heat stress which include an increase in deaths in persons with heart conditions 

(Climate Change Committee, 2011b). 

61

In the Turks and Caicos Islands gridded temperature observations have shown an increase at an average 

rate of 0.12˚C per decade over the period 1960-2006 which is expected to increase by at least 0.7-2.0˚C for 

the GCM ensemble by the 2080’s. RCM projections indicate the potential for more rapid increases (See 

Section 3). Though these changes dispersed over such times spans appear to be small, episodes of 

increased temperatures could impact vulnerable groups at a given point in time. The potential effects are 

also multi-sectoral as water supplies and the agriculture sector may be affected. 

In terms of tourism this will be an important consideration because most travellers seek countries with 

warm weather to escape the cold winters but due caution should be taken by elderly travel enthusiasts 

when choosing destinations. Additionally, exposure to higher temperatures may also contribute to increase 

in skin diseases; a consideration that becomes more relevant as temperatures increase (Confalonieri, et al., 

2007). While temperature may be considered a positive determinant of visitor demands it should be noted 

that on one hand cooler temperate destinations tend to become more attractive as temperature increases, 

while warm tropical destinations become less attractive (Hamilton and Tol, 2004). However, the reverse 

may be also true depending on the destination. It is uncertain at what temperature threshold such 

scenarios will affect Caribbean destinations such as the Turks and Caicos Islands. 

4.4.3. Indirect Impacts 

Increase in vector-borne diseases 

The Turks and Caicos Islands have a dry tropical climate, with low rainfall (Bennett et al., 2002) and 

numerous marshes and mangrove swamps. These conditions, as well as flooding which occurs after heavy 

rainfall and is often associated with the hurricane season; create a suitable environment for mosquito to 

breed in Turks and Caicos Islands (PAHO, 2011). In the Turks and Caicos Islands Climate Change Green 

Paper it has been stated that precipitation patterns are likely to affect the occurrence of vector-borne 

diseases such as malaria, yellow fever and dengue in the territory (Climate Change Committee, 2011b). 

Climate is not the only important factor in the successful transmission of diseases; other factors include the 

disease source, the vector and a human population (Hales, Wet, Maindonald, & Woodward, 2002). Climate 

change projections indicate the tendency for overall decreases in rainfall events (See Section 3) which 

might decrease mosquito proliferation once water storage facilities and infrastructure such as cisterns do 

not contribute to mosquito breeding sites. 

Another important consideration for public health and vector-borne diseases is that incurred from the 

tourism industry. There were 255,000 ‘stay over’ visitors to Turks and Caicos in 2009, the great majority 

originating from the United States of America (BCQS, 2010). The cruise ship industry draws a high volume 

of tourists to the islands on a yearly basis. This influx of people from non-endemic areas represents a 

potentially susceptible population to vector-borne disease infections if conditions on the island were to 

become more favourable for disease transmission. 

Dengue Fever – Dengue fever is the most important arboviral disease – transmitted by the Aedes aegypti 

mosquito - of humans, and exists in tropical and subtropical countries worldwide (Gubler, 2002; Patz, et al., 

2000; Rigau-Pérez et al., 1998). Population growth, urbanization and modern transportation are believed to 

have contributed to its resurgence in recent times (Gubler, 2002). It has been shown that dengue fever 

transmission is altered by increases in temperature and rainfall (Hales et al., 1996) but further research on 

the association between the two is needed. Both from modelled data and observations, it has also been 

found that changes in climate determine the geographical boundaries of dengue fever (Epstein, 2001; 

Epstein et al., 1998; Hales, et al., 2002; Hsieh and Chen, 2009; Martens, Jetten, & Focks, 2007; Patz, et al., 

62

2000). Thus, despite the fact that CAREC data indicates that the incidence of dengue fever in the Turks and 

Caicos is very low, with one case being reported in 2006, none in 2007, 2008 or 2009 (CAREC, 2008a; 

CAREC, 2010) the potential exists for an increase in incidence of the disease. The economic, social and 

environmental factors can also affect the occurrence and transmission of the disease (Hopp and Foley, 

2001). 

Dengue fever is endemic to the Caribbean region and is thus a major public health problem which can 

affect both locals and tourists (Castle et al., 1999; Pinheiro and Corber, 1997; Wichmann, Mühlberger, & 

Jelinek, 2003). Allwinn et al. (2008) have found that the risk to travellers has been underestimated. In fact it 

is the second most reported disease of tourists returning from tropical destinations (Wilder-Smith and 

Schwartz, 2005) and air travel has been linked with its spread (Jelinek, 2000). This vector-borne disease has 

affected the region since as early as the 1800’s (Pinheiro and Corber, 1997). 

In Jamaica, Chadee et al. (2009) found that large storage drums used during dry spells and drought 

conditions were the main breeding sites of the vector, Aedes aegypti, accounting for a third of their 

breeding sites. Traditional targets of source reduction in Jamaica, i.e. small miscellaneous containers, were 

found to contain negligible numbers of pupae. However, if drought conditions become commonplace in the 

future due to climate change the use of large water storage drums may be used and thus may provide 

suitable breeding sites for the vector Aedes aegypti. Water storage and mosquito breeding are also very 

important in the Turks and Caicos Islands due to the high number of cistern usage employed on this island. 

Malaria - Malaria is another vector-borne disease which is believed to be sensitive to climate change 

(Githeko & A.Woodward, 2003; Martens, et al., 2007). The potential for disease transmission of malaria in 

the Turks and Caicos Islands is thought to be very low because in a study of malaria in the Caribbean, none 

of the 29 species of Anopheles – the mosquito responsible for the spread of malaria – present in the region 

were identified in Turks and Caicos. There were however, 4 reported imported cases during 2001-2005 

(PAHO, 2007), 1 reported imported case in 2007 (CAREC, 2008a) but no reported cases in 2008 and 2009 

(CAREC, 2010). Imported cases represent a threat to the complete prevention of malaria in the territory. 

The study stressed the point that although no mosquito species were recorded, this did not necessarily 

signify an absence of the vector (Rawlins et al., 2008). 

Leptospirosis - Aside from mosquito vectors, rodents present a health threat due to their ability to harbour 

and spread diseases. The likelihood of these events are difficult to predict because while rainfall patterns 

are expected to decrease, storms and hurricanes can dump high volumes of water on the island in short 

time frames, creating suitable conditions for rodent infestation. One disease of note that is transmitted by 

rodents is leptospirosis. Gubler et al. (2001) define leptospirosis as “an acute febrile infection caused by 

bacterial species of Leptospira that affect the liver and kidneys.” After heavy rains brought on by hurricanes 

and tropical storms leptospirosis preparations are undertaken to protect against the spread of this disease 

in the Turks and Caicos Islands (PAHO, 2011). Flood waters contaminated with faecal matter and urine from 

infected rats is often associated with, and is one of the main causes of leptospirosis outbreaks and spread 

(Gubler, et al., 2001; Hales, et al., 2002; Moreno, 2006; Sachan and Singh, 2010). CAREC data indicates that 

between 1980 and 2009 there was only one case of leptospirosis in 1998 (CAREC, 2008a; CAREC 2008c; 

CAREC, 2010). 

Drought, air quality and respiratory illnesses 

The Turks and Caicos Islands is prone to drought conditions. GCM projections indicate a tendency for the 

likely reduction in precipitation in the Turks and Caicos Islands by the 2080’s. RCM simulations also driven 

by HadCM3 boundary conditions indicate a large decrease whereas that driven by ECHAM4 indicates a 

small increase in annual precipitation (See Section 3). This constitutes a vulnerability to the health sector as 

63

episodes of dry spells and drought conditions can also contribute to the spread of diseases linked to 

inadequate water supply and sanitation. 

Air quality can also impact on the health sector. Increased incidence of asthma, influenza, respiratory 

diseases and acute respiratory infections due to increases in particulate air pollutants and changing air 

composition have been identified in the Inter-governmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth 

Assessment for the Health Sector (Confalonieri, et al., 2007). Diphtheria cases have also been reported in 

the Turks and Caicos Islands (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000b) and there was an alert for this disease based 

on its resurgence in Haiti after the 2010 earthquake (MOH, 2010). Table 4.4.2 below shows the number of 

cases of fever and respiratory symptoms described as acute respiratory infections (ARI) between 2006 to 

2009. The data, however, is insufficient to establish any trends, and monthly data would be helpful in 

determining if seasonal trends exist. Increase in incidence has shown that the prevalence is highest 

between October to March (PAHO, 2007). 

Table 4.4.2: Fever and Respiratory Systems (acute respiratory infections) under and over 5 years between 2006 - 

2009 

Year 2006 2007 2008 2009 

Fever and Respiratory symptoms (ARI) < 5 yrs 

64 

616 341 371 478 

Fever and Respiratory symptoms (ARI) ≥ 5 yrs 882 313 286 655 

Total no. of cases 1498 654 657 1133 

(Source: CAREC, 2008a; CAREC, 2010) 

At least in one other Caribbean island, namely Saint Lucia, analysis of disease data for asthma, bronchitis 

and respiratory infections showed that there is a seasonal incidence (Amarakoon et al., 2004). Further 

research may yield similar trends in other Caribbean islands. Influenza and influenza like cases are also 

cause for concern. There were 324 cases of influenza-like illnesses in 2006, but no reported cases in 2007 

(CAREC, 2008a) or 2008 (CAREC, 2010). However between July and August 2009, there were 17 new cases 

of Influenza A H1N1 reported, eight were from Grand Turk and nine from Providenciales (Government of 

Turks and Caicos Islands, 2009c). The resurgence of the disease resulted in health action at a national level. 

If air quality can have a significant impact on the health of the local population then, it is reasonable to 

expect similar effects on vulnerable travellers (Sanford, 2004) particularly those with respiratory, 

pulmonary and cardiac disease conditions. 

Water supply, sanitation and associated diseases 

Climate change predications indicate the possibility for reduction in overall precipitation in the Turks and 

Caicos Islands. This thus results in a reduction in potable water supplies (Climate Change Committee, 

2011b). A number of food-borne and water-borne illnesses are associated with water and poor sanitation 

and those of relevance for the Turks and Caicos Islands include gastroenteritis, shigellosis, salmonella, 

cholera and typhoid fever (PAHO, 2007). Specific mention should be made for gastroenteritis and especially 

cases related to the population under five years old. This disease is spread through poor sanitation and 

insufficient supply of water. In 2007 there were two significant outbreaks of gastroenteritis in Turks and 

Caicos (CAREC, 2008b). Table 4.4.3 below shows that cases of gastroenteritis have increased almost 

consistently every year from 2003 - 2009.

Table 4.4.3: Reported cases of gastroenteritis in the Turks and Caicos Islands between 2000 and 2009 

Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 

Sum of Gastroenteritis < 5 yrs 

209 183 72 197 197 360 302 280 365 303 

Sum of Gastroenteritis ≥ 5 yrs - 1 22 210 207 350 426 513 571 825 

Total no. cases 209 184 94 407 404 710 728 793 931 1128 

(Source: CAREC, 2008a; CAREC, 2008; CAREC, 2008b; CAREC, 2010) 

Conversely, heavy rains and subsequent flooding can give rise to an increase in incidence of diseases 

especially where pit latrines are in use as was the case after the flooding brought on by Tropical Storm 

Hanna (ECLAC, 2008). Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis also known as ‘red-eye’ is also spread due to poor 

sanitation conditions and has occurred consistently over the years (CAREC, 2008a). Outbreaks can affect 

the tourism industry, as was the experience in 2005 when there was a gastroenteritis outbreak (due to 

Norwalk Virus) in a hotel which affected 47 guests and staff over four week period (CAREC, 2005). 

Currently, the percentage of the population using an improved drinking water source was 98% in 2008 and 

98% of urban population had access to improved sanitation facilities (ECLAC, 2010). The majority of the 

population (93%) live in urban areas (ECLAC, 2010). In the last census conducted in 2000, 34.1% of the 

population used pit latrines (Kairi Consutlants Limited, 2000a) and there is currently no public sewerage 

disposal on the island (Byron, 2011). Indeed the Turks and Caicos Islands solid waste and fecal waste 

systems are known to increase the spread of disease and encourage pests (PAHO, 2007, 2011). Water 

sources on the islands vary depending on water demand of the population and economic activities existing 

on a given island. There is the potential for potable water resources to become increasingly inaccessible by 

the poor as availability decreases and the price of production increases in the territory (Climate Change 

Committee, 2011b). There may be a rise of the diseases previously mentioned if water resources become 

scarcer coupled with higher unemployment rates and deterioration in social conditions. 

Legionnaires’ disease - Legionnaires’ disease is associated with water and is linked to climate change due to 

the greater incidence of the disease in hot humid rainier conditions (Fisman et al., 2005). Legionnaires’ 

disease is essentially a severe form of pneumonia which arises when the host is exposed to “aerosolised 

water containing the bacteria or aspirates water containing the bacteria” (Fields et al., 2002). It thrives in 

stored hot water (32 - 45°C) environments such as in spas, hot tubs and humidifiers which create a suitable 

reservoir for harbouring the bacteria. In addition it also thrives in natural waters, pipes, distribution 

systems, air conditioners, showers and cooling towers (Fisman, et al., 2005; Rose et al., 2001). It is 

therefore a disease of relevance in the tourism industry, having been the cause of illness on a number of 

cruise ships (Fisman, et al., 2005) and tourist hotels in various parts of the world. However, in the 

Caribbean region, research on the prevalence of the disease is limited to work at a hotel in Antigua 

conducted by Hospedales et al., (1997) and the quality of potable water in hospitals in Trinidad and Tobago 

by Nagalingam et al., (2005). Nonetheless its relevance to health and climate change in the Turks and 

Caicos Islands is evident, given the high dependence on the tourism sector and the expanding cruise ship 

industry. Given the climate and the need for water storage in the Caribbean region it is clear that there is 

always a risk for Legionnaires’ outbreaks. 

Food security 

The Turks and Caicos Islands do not have a significant agricultural sector owing to poor soil quality, the size 

of the islands and low annual rainfall so it therefore has to import substantial amounts of food. Most of the 

food consumed in the Turks and Caicos Islands is imported outside of fisheries resources which are 

traditional part of the diet (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). As such, food imports account for a significant 

65

percentage of total imports. In 2008, 13.6% of imports into the territory were from food and beverages 

(Byron, 2011). The availability of food could have consequences for the health of the population, 

particularly the poorest sectors of the society. The poverty rate is quite high in a number of the islands, for 

instance in 2008 Grand Turk had a poverty rate of 32.8%, in South Caicos it was 45.2% and in Middle Caicos 

it was 61.4% (ECLAC, 2008). If food availability is altered in neighbouring islands due to a reduction or 

change in rainfall patterns and increased pests and invasive species, this can have a ripple effect on the 

economy of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Similar impacts on the fisheries sector could reduce revenues and 

a reduced ability to meet its food requirements (Climate Change Committee, 2011b). 

Ciguatera fish poisoning – The Caribbean region is a well-known for the food poisoning illness called 

ciguatera fish poisoning (CFP) (Tester et al., 2010). A recent ciguatera assessment by Tester et al., (2010) 

estimated the Annual Ciguatera Fish Poisoning incidence in the Turks and Caicos Islands to be 4.5 per 

10,000 which reviewed the years 1980-2006 (but there were no cases reported before 1991) (Tester, et al., 

2010). There were no ciguatera cases in 2006, or 2007 (CAREC, 2008a) but 10 cases were reported in 2008 

(CAREC, 2010). 

An increase in the incidence of ciguatera may arise as seas become warmer due to climate change, 

triggering harmful algal blooms increase (HAB’s) which the toxins that bio-accumulate in fish species 

(Confalonieri et al., 2007; Tester et al., 2010). Symptoms of CFP include diarrhoea, vomiting, abdominal 

pain, muscular aches, nausea, reversal of temperature sensation, anxiety, sweating, numbness and tingling 

of the mouth and feet and hands, altered sense of smell, irregular heartbeat, lowering of blood pressure 

and paralysis (Friedman et al., 2008). As the CAREC Annual Report 2007 states “the occurrence of even 

small numbers of cases of ciguatera poisoning is of concern since it can result in severe illness, including 

neurological symptoms, and can also be life threatening” (CAREC, 2008a). 

66

4.5. Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and Fisheries 


The Turks and Caicos Islands Board of Tourism promotes the “Beautiful by Nature” Islands through 

exclusive attractions for visitors such as sighting Humpback whales and manta rays, sport-fishing for tunas 

and marlins and diving along impressive coral reefs. Encounters with exotic birds are frequent among the 

salt ponds and marshes that provide breeding and feeding grounds for terns, blue herons and pink 

flamingoes. The diversity of fauna and flora, and the long stretches of white sand beaches that lure 

thousands of vacationers every year highlight the great dependency of TCI’s main economic sector, 

tourism, on its natural environment. The Turks and Caicos Islands have several species of interest that 

include rare, threatened, endangered and endemic species, range-restricted species and rare habitat types. 

Over 550 plant species have been identified on the islands and cays; 9 are endemic to TCI and an additional 

40 species are endemic to the Bahamas archipelago (SWA Ltd., Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc., 

EDSA, 2010). Although geographically small in scale, the islands are a treasure trove for approximenately 

200 species of waterfowl and shorebirds and provide habitat to 17 species of reptiles (seven are alien 

species) and four species of cave-dweling bats, the only remamining native mammals. Endemic animal 

species include four reptilian species: the Pigmy Boa Constrictor, Caicos barking gecko, Caicos reef gecko 

and curly tail lizard; one insect – the leafwing butterfly (Anaea intermedia) and a cave shrimp (Barbouria 

spp) (SWA Ltd., Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc., EDSA, 2010). 

The islands are all limestone platforms and therefore low-lying, with the highest point being Flamingo Hill 

on the East Caicos island at 48 m above sea-level (Lime Turks & Caicos Islands, 2011). There are extensive 

sandy beaches and areas of shallow water with coral formations(Kairi Consultants Ltd, 2000b) as well as 

extensive mangroves and marshes. According to the Tourist Board the Middle and North Caicos represent 

the best of TCI’s distinctive environment, with lush green woodlands, the biggest cave network in the 

Caribbean on Middle Caicos, cottage pond and flamingo pond in North Caicos and a vast range of plant life 

and birdlife. South Caicos is the lobster and conch fishing centre of TCI, and home to the historic Cockburn 

harbour and the natural phenomenon of the boiling hole (Turks and Caicos Tourist Board, n.d.). 

The increasing number of resorts and tourism activities currently pose the greatest localized threat to the 

islands' biodiversity especially along coastal areas. The risk of biodiversity loss is further increased by 

climate change, which is now recognized as one of the greatest threats to global biological diversity. 

Impacts of global climate change on the flora and fauna of TCI include: 

Changes in distribution 

Ecosystem composition 

Increased rates of extinction 

Changes in patterns of reproduction 

Changes in migration patterns 

Ecosystems have long demonstrated the ability to adapt to changing environments however it is believed 

that current and projected rates of climate change will exceed the rate of adaptation jeopardizing the 

survival of many species. Compounding the global threat of climate change are the local anthropogenic 

impacts that degrade habitats, reduce species numbers and decrease the resilience and adaptive capacity 

of ecosystems. The following sections will assesses the vulnerability and adaptive capacity of the island’s 

biodiversity and fisheries sectors to climate change within the context of those ecosystems that are most 

significant to tourism and its related sectors. 

67

Status of terrestrial habitats 

There are two values widely reported for the country’s land area, 948 km 2 and 417 km 2 . Although no 

definitive source could be found that explains the difference in these numbers it is believed that the smaller 

number relates to actual land area and the larger number includes marshes and possibly wetlands. 

Terrestrial vegetation in the Turks and Caicos can be grouped into three distinct classifications: 

Upland – Terrestrial community formations sufficiently removed from marine and aquatic influences such 

that species characteristics and compositions are not determined by proximity to the ocean or substrate 

saturation. 

Coastal – Coastal habitats include formations that are in close proximity to the marine environment where 

exposure to salt spray, salty substrates and periodic tidal inundation determine species compositions and 

characteristics. 

Wetland – Community formations where hydrologic regimes determine species characteristics and 

compositions. Environmental variables include substrates that are saturated with water either permanently 

or seasonally. In the Turks and Caicos, wetland habitats can be saline, brackish or fresh and can be 

recharged tidally (estuarine), by rainfall and groundwater recharge (palustrine). A third wetland formation, 

lacustrine, represents permanent standing water ponds and karst formations. 

Over 550 species of plants have been identified in the Turks & Caicos Islands, nine of which are endemic 

and one plant, the West Indian Mahogany (Swietenia mahagoni), is listed as endangered by the IUCN. 

Terrestrial vegetation provide a range of services such as local climate regulation, prevention of soil 

erosion, regulation of fresh water resources and provision of habitat for a diversity of animals such as the 

Critically Endangered Rock Iguana that forages among the habitats of the Leeward Cays (Cyclura carinata) 

(SWA Ltd.; Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc.; EDSA, 2010). 

The Department of Environment and Coastal Resources has undertaken the monumental task of 

standardizing national vegetation classification and mapping terrestrial habitats for the purposes of 

addressing the inconsistencies in existing habitat classifications. Based on standards developed by the 

Nature Conservancy and United States Federal Geographical Data Committee, The Standardized National 

Vegetation Classification for the Turks and Caicos Islands (TCINVC) describes seven terrestrial habitat types 

for the islands and cays (see Table 4.5.1). 

68

Table 4.5.1: Turks and Caicos Islands Vegetation Subclass Classification 

Class Subclass 

Forest, Woodland, Shrubland, Dwarf 

Shrubland 

Coniferous 

Evergreen 

Drought Deciduous 

Mixed Evergreen/Drought Deciduous 

Mixed Coniferous/Broadleaf 

Herbaceous Perennial 

Annual 

Forb 

Graminoid 

Mixed Graminoid/Forb 

Non-Vascular Algae 

Sparse Human Altered Clear Cut 

Human Altered Maintained Landscape 

Human Altered Exotic Nuisance Species 

Human Altered Aquatic 

(Source: SWA Ltd.; Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc.; EDSA, 2010) 

The most distinctive type of vegetation in the Caicos Islands is the Pinus caribaea var. bahamensis, also 

known as Yellow Pine; that makes up the Coniferous woodland communities. This species is unique to the 

Bahamas archipelago and extensive pine yards are found on North and Middle Caicos, and a small pine yard 

on Pine Cay. Generally found in low-lying areas overlying fresh groundwater lenses, this habitat is home to 

many important plant species like the TCI endemic Stenandrium carolinae and is a potential winter home 

for the endangered Kirtland’s Warbler Dendroica kirtlandii. 

Pine yard habitats are considered to be the most threatened habitat in TCI not only because of their limited 

spatial distribution but also because of the introduction of an invasive alien species (IAS) of insect, the Pine 

Tortoise Scale. This pest reduces the vigour of trees, causes dieback, impairs reproduction and seed 

recruitment, and encourages the growth of sooty mould that inhibits photosynthesis and primary 

productivity. Pine yards are known as “fire climax communities” meaning that they require periodic fires to 

remove broad-leaf trees so that juvenile pines can get sufficient light. As a result of the scale infection large 

amounts of dead trunk and limb wood have resulted in seasonal fires burning with significantly greater 

intensity and time, to which the Caicos pine is not adapted. 

69

Figure 4.5.1: Vegetation of North and Middle Caicos Islands; location of the most extensive pine yards of TCI 

Source: (SWA Ltd., Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc., EDSA, 2010) 

70

Status of wetlands 

Over half of the land area of TCI consists of wetlands comprising tidal flats, salt marsh and mangrove 

communities. The wetlands are recognized as internationally important areas as they mostly remain in their 

natural condition. Wetland habitats can be saline, brackish or fresh and can be recharged tidally 

(estuarine), by rainfall and groundwater recharge (palustrine). A third wetland formation, lacustrine, 

represents permanent standing ponds fed by groundwater and karst formations. The North, Middle and 

East Caicos Nature Reserve (Ramsar site) is a wetland of international importance, containing a variety of 

habitat types representative of the region. 

Estuarine 

Estuarine habitats represent the vast majority of terrestrial (and wetland) formations within the Turks and 

Caicos Islands. Tidal mangrove forests are located throughout the Turks and Caicos Islands along shorelines 

and within estuaries subjected to daily tidal fluctuations. Caicos has a very large mangrove area, especially 

in the southern portion of North Caicos and in Middle and East Caicos, where they form a virtually 

continuous stand (FAO, 2007). Four mangrove species grow along the coastal areas of TCI: Rhizophora 

mangle (Red mangrove), Avicennia germinans (Black mangrove), Laguncularia racemosa (White mangrove) 

and Conocarpus erectus (Buttonwood mangrove). True mangrove forests comprise a relatively small 

percentage of the islands but nevertheless serve a vital function. Estuarine formations provide a wide 

variety of ecosystem services including critical habitats for a wide variety of shoreline birds that forage for 

insects, crustaceans and invertebrates trapped in the flooded low-lying vegetation. Other ecosystems such 

as coral reefs and seagrass beds benefit from the mangrove’s ability to filter sediments and pollution that 

would otherwise cloud the water and contribute to algal blooms. There is also an important link between 

these three habitats through chemical, biological exchanges and migratory activities. 

Mangroves also provide a myriad of benefits to humans by protecting the environment. Their roots 

contribute to soil stability by encouraging sedimentation and reducing erosion. These biomes are significant 

to the subsistence, commercial and sports fisheries as they provide nurseries and habitat for juvenile 

finfish. Mangrove forests act as a natural coastal defence against the high energy waves and strong winds 

that batter coastlines during extreme events. A comparison of two villages in Sri Lanka that were struck by 

the 2004 tsunami reveals the role of healthy mangrove forests in saving lives. In the village of Kapuhenwala, 

which is surrounded by 200 ha of mangrove forest, only two people died as a result of the tsunami as 

compared to the death toll of 6,000 in the village of Wanduruppa where the mangroves are severely 

degraded (IUCN, 2005). Kayak tours through the mangroves of Bottle Creek, Frenchmans Creek Nature 

Reserve and Mangrove Cay provide economic benefit and employment for persons in the tourism sector. 

Palustrine habitats frequently form the ecotone (a transition area of vegetation between two different 

plant communities) between estuarine and upland habitats of TCI. Together with lacustrine habitats they 

also provide critical habitat for waterfowl species and saline herbaceous communities. These wetlands are 

the primary habitat for the islands’ national flower; the critically endangered endemic species Limonium 

bahamense, a succulent also known as ‘island heather’ that thrives in the saline conditions of salt flats. 

Small sinkholes are the habitat to another TCI endemic- a crustacean, Typhlatya spp. (note: identification is 

uncertain). 

71

Figure 4.5.2: Lacustrine karst habitat, West Caicos 

(Source: SWA Ltd., Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc., EDSA, 2010) 

Rapid development for real estate and tourism has led to the degradation of wetlands, particularly on the 

island of Providenciales. Clearance of mangroves and in-filling of salinas defragments or completely 

destroys habitats and contributes to biodiversity loss. Despite the clearings of some wetland areas for 

resort and urban development, the general level of threat is not considered to be very high. A greater 

threat to the natural environment is posed by proposals for major developments on the uninhabited 

islands, which are prime habitats for unique species such as rock iguana and the remaining breeding sites 

for turtles. 

Status of beaches 

Beaches are dynamic ecosystems that provide habitat to marine reptiles, crustaceans and a wide variety of 

shorebirds. At least two species of globally threatened sea turtles have been documented in TCI; these 

depend on beaches and coastal vegetation to support their foraging and nesting behaviours. The island has 

many sand dunes that function as important reservoirs of sand, habitat for coastal plants and a line of 

defence for inland areas from the erosive effect of high-energy waves during storms. The vegetation that 

grows on beaches acts as a natural windbreak to protect coastal infrastructure from wind damage. Beaches 

are one of TCI’s main attractions and thus support a multi-million dollar tourism industry through 

recreational use and through use by the fisheries sector. 

With much of TCI’s tourism located along the coast beaches are at great risk of tourism impacts. Rapid 

development in tourism infrastructure has resulted in growth in the construction sector and uncontrolled 

sand mining that has damaged sand dunes such as those of Booby Rock Point in Grand Turk. The 

introduction of the Australian pine tree, Casuarina equisetifolia, has also increased the vulnerability of 

beaches to erosive action. The tree is an invasive alien species IAS that was initially introduced to help 

stabilize sandy soils; however, it is outcompeting natural vegetation and actually destabilizing sand and 

increasing the risk of beach erosion. 

Within the past five years a number of groins and breakwaters have been constructed and beach 

nourishment projects have been undertaken in order to protect coastlines at East Grace Bay, Pelican Point 

and Emerald Bay. As TCI seeks to expand the tourism sector consideration must be given to establishing 

72

and enforcing adequate coastal setbacks. Impermeable structures erected too close to the shoreline 

disrupt the natural cycle of accretion and erosion of sandy beaches, and accelerate the rate of erosion of 

sand. This not only makes beaches less attractive, but is also costly and dangerous because reduced beach 

width allows waves to break further inshore and wear away at the foundation of homes, resorts and 

condominiums. Run-off from construction sites contributes to the degradation of coral reefs which are an 

important source of beach sand and play a role in the dynamics of sand movement. Coastal development 

impacts on beach ecosystems in yet another way: artificial lighting at nights interferes with nesting of adult 

turtles and disorients hatchlings as they attempt to make their way to the sea. As a result thousands of 

hatchlings may die annually and this is a significant conservation problem. 

Status of coral reefs 

Coral reefs are a significant feature of TCI’s marine environment and provide a range of ecosystem services. 

They provide white sand for its famous beaches, habitat for a wide diversity of marine species and critically 

important coastal defences for the low-lying islands and cays. Grand Turk has a well-earned reputation as 

one of the finest diving destinations in the world with an outstanding protected coral reef that drops to 

7,000 feet along the west side of the island (Grand Turk Cruise Center, 2011). Reefs of TCI are extensive and 

diverse with an estimated area of almost 1,200 km 2 of bank and fringing reefs comprised of about 30 

different coral species. 

Figure 4.5.3: Location of coral reefs of the Turks and Caicos Islands 

73 

(Source: UNEP, 1988) 

According to the World Resource Institute, TCI possesses some of the least threatened coral reefs in the 

Caribbean region. The Reefs at Risk analysis determined that about 50% of the coral reefs are under a 

medium threat from overfishing, and this is the only threat identified in most areas. An estimated 13% of 

coral reefs are under threat of coastal development and other threats were considered to be low or

negligible. It is recognised however that as tourism increases so too do the threats on the pristine reefs. 

There has been damage to fore-reef corals coming from intense dive tourism, especially near 

Providenciales, West Caicos and the western drop-off on Grand Turk (Linton, et al., 2002). Sedimentation 

from construction, sewage pollution, anti-fouling paints in marinas, coral breakage by divers and anchors, 

and ship groundings are other impacts threatening the health of coral reefs in TCI. In a letter to the editor 

of a local newspaper, Mr. Alex Watts of Providenciales raised concern about illegal activities occurring in 

Marine Protected Areas that are increasing the vulnerability of coral reefs. He reported that jet skis 

regularly enter and tour the restricted areas, and it appears that little is done to educate the many tourists 

who visit Half Moon Bay area daily about the rules of the MPA. Currently it appears unlikely that 

conservation efforts and enforcement are able to keep pace with the rate of tourism expansion. As such 

adaptation of coral reef ecosystems to climate change will be further impeded unless human and financial 

resources are committed to building their resilience. A greater involvement of the private sector in the 

management of MPAs and coral reefs is also required. 

Status of fisheries 

Fishing has long been an important activity in the economy and livelihoods of TCI. What was previously a 

subsistence sector, or an industry supplying the limited domestic demand has become an important export 

oriented sector, supplying the bulk of visible exports. There are three fishing banks within this marine 

territory: the Turks Bank, approximately 299 km 2 , the Mouchoir Bank, approximately 958 km 2 , and the 

Caicos Bank, the “fishing capital”, approximately 6,000 km 2 in area (Tietze, Haughton, & Siar, 2006). The 

two main species supporting the fishing industry are the spiny lobster (Panularis argus) and conch 

(Strombus gigas) especially in South Caicos, which is the main fishing centre. Conch is subject to the CITES 

convention and TCI is allocated a quota of 600,000 lbs of conch per annum (Kairi Consultants Limited, 

2000a). Lobster and conch processing operations offer the single largest sector for the employment of 

women in South Caicos (Kairi Consultants Ltd, 2000b). Meanwhile, the finfish fisheries have remained 

under-exploited by TC Islanders, since the country has not developed the infrastructure to ship chilled fish 

to the main markets (Kairi Consultants Ltd, 2000b). Finfish such as groupers, snappers and large pelagics 

are consumed locally and are part of the tourism sector’s sports fishery. 

Recently, TCI Governor Gordon Wetherell noted that there are “significant problems with the conch and 

lobster fisheries in particular but also potentially with the finfish as well.” (Green R. , 2011b). The 

governor’s Advisory Council recently expressed concern about the sustainability of the conch fishery since 

at the end of this year’s official conch export season, July 15, harvest was barely more than half of its 

annual quota, indicating a very poor catch. Exports have thus been extended until August 15 while the 

opening of the lobster season has been postponed by one month. Over the past decade it has been noted 

that the size of conch landed has decreased and greater fishing effort must be exerted; most conch now 

come from more distant and deeper waters, suggesting that stocks are declining (Linton, et al., 2002). 

Illegal harvesting is also posing a threat to conch stocks. Water sports tour operators have reportedly been 

seen removing conch from the Princess Alexandra National Land and Sea Park in order to entertain and 

feed their guests. Not only is harvest from this location illegal since National Park Ordinance prohibits 

removal of anything from a national park but shells of juvenile conch have been found along beaches 

indicating that minimum size regulations that guide the conch fishery are also being breached (Green, 

2011). The size and harvest of lobster stocks have also shown signs of over-harvesting prompting the 

Department of Environment and Coastal Resources (DECR), on the advice of fishers, to push back the 

opening of the lobster season in 2011 by one month. As a result reef fish are now experiencing greater 

fishing pressure as fishers look for alternatives to support their livelihood. 

74

Turtle fishery 

At least two species of marine turtle (green and hawksbill turtles) nest in the Turks and Caicos Islands. 

Marine turtles have been fished from TCI’s waters for centuries but have been considered of little 

economic importance since only a few fishermen regularly target turtles to satisfy local demand; otherwise 

most turtles are caught opportunistically. However a 2004 estimate revealed that TCI possibly has the 

largest legal turtle fishery among UKOT capturing between 240 and 1,130 green turtles and 180 to 900 

hawksbills annually in targeted fishing and an additional 190 turtles (green and hawksbills) as incidental 

catch (Godley, Broderick, Campbell, Ranger, & Richardson, 2004). Currently, the only TCI laws protecting 

turtles prohibit taking a turtle while it is nesting and catching a turtle that measures less than 20 inches in 

diameter. The Department of Environment and Coastal Resources (DECR), and the Marine Conservation 

Society (MCS) and the University of Exeter in the UK have drafted new measures to improve the 

management of the country’s traditional turtle fishery. Considering that these turtles are part of a global 

stock, and are threatened species facing further pressure due to loss of habitat and climate change impacts 

the onus is on the TCI Government to enforce these new measures with urgency. 

4.5.2. Vulnerability of Biodiversity and Fisheries to Climate Change 

Vulnerability of terrestrial vegetation 

Increased temperatures, SLR, reduced precipitation and intensified hurricanes are projected to impact on 

the vegetation of TCI. Projected Annual changes in temperature by the 2080 indicate an increase spanning 

0.7-2.0˚C for the GCM ensemble. Regional Climate Model (RCM) projections driven by ECHAM4 and 

HadCM3 indicate generally greater increases in temperatures over TCI than the median changes projected 

by the GCM ensemble under higher emissions scenario A2. GCM projections of future rainfall for TCI span 

both overall increases and decreases, but generally tend towards decreases in annual rainfall with a range 

of -29 to +8 mm per month by 2080 under scenario A2. The scrublands of TCI are adapted to arid 

conditions; nevertheless the TCI Climate Change Green Paper anticipates that such changes in temperature 

and precipitation patterns will result in a contraction of vegetated areas, the displacement and/or loss 

habitats and subsequently plant and animal species. SLR will result in salt water intrusion of ground water, 

altering soil salinity thus threatening the survival of native plant species. Losses to fauna and flora 

composition will impact negatively on genetic diversity. 

Frequent fires may result from protracted periods of drought brought on by climate change and will retard 

sufficient pine regeneration over the long-term. While pine yards require periodic fires if these fires occur 

too often they can be detrimental to the forest by reducing the recovery period and creating a shortage of 

fruit and seeds for reproduction and for forest inhabitants to feed on. This is currently a threat facing the 

pine forests of TCI not because of climate change but as a result of the invasive scale insect; if not 

controlled TCI is at risk of losing this unique habitat. 

Intense hurricanes in 2008, and possibly SLR, caused salt water intrusion of groundwater that further 

stressed and killed trees. Over 90% of pine trees on North Caicos died and recruitment/natural 

regeneration is nearly absent. High mortality and reduced seed production continues to threaten the pine 

yards on Middle Caicos and Pine Cay. The Royal Botanical Gardens Kew’s specialists estimate that that 

extinction of the Yellow Pine in highly likely within the following decade if conditions are allowed to remain 

as they are. 

75

Vulnerability of wetlands 

It is anticipated that global climate change will aggravate the impacts of current human stressors on 

mangroves and reduce their natural resilience to harsh conditions. Observed and GCM ensemble 

projections of temperature change in TCI will not likely have adverse direct impacts on the country’s 

mangrove forests. However, mangroves could be indirectly impacted by long-term temperature changes 

since increased temperatures will damage coral reefs, which mangroves depend on for shelter from wave 

action. Reduced levels of precipitation would reduce mangrove productivity and increase their exposure to 

very saline water. SLR is expected to pose the greatest climate change threat to mangroves (McLeod & 

Salm, 2006). A rise in sea level is projected to affect wetlands by either expanding or confining their habitat. 

SLR and salt water intrusion will increase soil salinity and may allow wetland vegetation to spread. On the 

other hand, if mangroves and other vegetation associated with salt ponds are obstructed from migrating 

inland due to coastal topography and coastal infrastructure, they may be over-come by SLR and eventually 

lost. SLR and changes in precipitation, particularly the projected trend towards drier weather, will also 

affect the water level and salinity of salt ponds (Salinas) fed by underground water sources thus impacting 

on the organisms that inhabit these areas. 

Hurricane Ike, 2008, caused damage to several mangrove sites including those of South Creek National Park 

located in Grand Turk. Observed and projected increases in SSTs indicate potential for continuing increases 

in hurricane activity, and model projections (although still relatively primitive) indicate that this may occur 

through increases in intensity of events, including increases in near storm rainfalls and peak winds. 

Mangrove species exhibit different responses to storm damage and a forest’s community structure could 

thus be changed by tropical storms and hurricanes. The long term effects of extreme events on mangrove 

stands are uncertain but will most likely mean a loss of the many essential services provided by these 

ecosystems. The best approach is therefore to preserve and restore mangrove communities given the 

economic and life saving benefits they can offer. 

Vulnerability of beaches to climate change 

Climate change, in particular SLR and extreme events, is likely to increase rates of beach erosion. As sea 

levels rise, shorelines retreat inland and beach area is typically reduced. A reduction in the width of the 

beach buffer zone will leave coastal infrastructure more vulnerable to erosive wave action, and possibly 

result in the loss of critical fish landing sites. Climate change impacts on beaches will also threaten the 

survival of species such as marine turtles and shore birds. Turtles exhibit strong nesting site fidelity and will 

undertake long distance migrations in order to return to their natal beach to nest. Given the small fraction 

of hatchlings that survive to adulthood the loss of beach nesting sites has grave implications for marine 

turtle populations. Furthermore, warmer average daily temperatures may skew sex ratios in developing 

turtle eggs and thereby reduced the reproductive capacity of sea turtles. Such impacts will mean a loss of 

potential for the country’s expanding ecotourism industry, disruption of marine ecosystem balance, and 

loss of a tourism product. As a signatory to CITES, the Turks and Caicos Islands have an obligation to protect 

these marine reptiles. 

Intense tropical cyclones and accompanying storm surges can dramatically alter beach profiles. In 2008 

Hurricane Ike impacted several beaches including Governor’s Beach, one of the main public beaches in the 

National Park system, and East Grace Bay a significant resort area, both of which suffered substantial 

erosion - in particular the latter lost up to five feet of sand in height. Also, a restoration project of Emerald 

Beach that was completed in June of that same year was completely lost (UNEP, 2008). The frequency of 

storms often does not allow sufficient time for beaches to recover (Scott, et al., 2006). 

76

Vulnerability of coral reefs to climate change 

Although fragile, coral reefs have shown the ability to acclimatize and adapt to temporal and spatial 

changes in their environment throughout their geological history. However, the rate of SLR may exceed the 

vertical growth rate of coral and decrease the amount of sunlight available to them thus causing them to 

grow even more slowly. Increased atmospheric CO2 is also causing changes in atmospheric and oceanic 

characteristics with which corals must contend. Ocean acidification, SLR and increased SST present 

additional stresses on coral reefs around TCI that are already threatened with coastal development and 

increased pressures from fishing, diving and boating activities. 

GCM projections indicate increases in sea-surface temperatures throughout the year. Projected increases 

range between +0.9˚C and +2.7˚C by the 2080s across all three emissions scenarios. The range of 

projections under any single emissions scenario spans roughly around 1.0 to 1.5˚C (see Section 3). Increases 

in sea surface temperature of about 1 to 3°C are projected to result in more frequent coral bleaching 

events and widespread mortality, unless there is thermal adaptation or acclimatisation by corals (Nicholls, 

2007). TCI was spared the worst effects of the 2005 Pan Caribbean bleaching episode. Various coral species 

showed bleaching at depths of up to 15m but of 166 coral colonies at The Warhead, The Fishbowl and 

Tuckers Reefs, only three colonies (one Montastraea annularis and two Agaricia agaricites) were 

completely bleached; 87 colonies showed partial bleaching. By December of the following year colonies 

showed signs of recovery with little evidence of coral mortality (Jones, et al., 2008). Increased frequency of 

bleaching episodes means reduced recovery time for coral polyps and greater likelihood of mortality. 

Furthermore, warmer oceanic waters will facilitate the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, which will change 

seawater pH, having a negative impact on coral and other calcifying organisms since more acidic waters will 

reduce the availability of aragonite (required for shell/skeleton building) and weaken the skeletal structure 

of such organisms. 

Other climate related impacts are expected from SLR and extreme events. Rising sea levels may reduce the 

amount of available light necessary for the photosynthetic processes of corals and hurricanes can cause 

extensive structural damage to coral reefs. The rugosity of a reef helps to break up waves and disperse 

wave energy thereby protecting the shoreline from wave impact. However, in so doing coral reefs can be 

broken apart and even uprooted from the substrate. It is difficult to predict whether Caribbean corals will 

keep pace with SLR, increased SST and other climate change impacts. 

What is more certain is that the corals’ ability to adapt to climate change is dependent on the degree of 

localized environmental stressors that they are exposed to. The ability of coral reef ecosystems to 

withstand the impacts of climate change will depend on the extent of exposure to other anthropogenic 

pressures and the frequency of future bleaching events (Donner, 2005). Coral reefs have been shown to 

keep pace with rapid postglacial sea-level rise when not subjected to environmental or anthropogenic 

stresses (Hallock, 2005). Action must be taken to protect coral reefs from poor water quality, over-fishing 

and physical damage from tourism activities as weakened and slow growing reefs are less able to provide 

effective protection to shorelines or sediment for beach sand. Poor quality reefs will detract from the diving 

and snorkelling experience for which TCI is so well known and potentially result in significant loss of its 

competitive advantage in the tourism industry. 

Vulnerability of fisheries to climate change 

As previously discussed, climate change will have negative impacts on coral cover, seagrass beds and 

mangrove ecosystems that are all important to various life stages of commercial fish. A loss or partial loss 

of these nursery habitats will therefore reduce the abundance of lobster and conch. Severe fluctuations in 

SST and local salinities could also compromise larval development and subsequently fish stocks. Declines in 

77

lobster and conch harvests have resulted in fishers giving more attention to reef and pelagic fisheries. 

Climate change may prevent the use of this alternative resource as warmer waters could potentially alter 

breeding and migration patterns and may drive pelagic species away from the tropics in search of cooler 

temperatures, thereby impacting on local food security and sport-fishing activities. 

Following Hurricanes Hannah and Ike, commercial fishers experienced damage or loss of fishing 

infrastructure, which prevented or considerably hampered their fishing activities. Such damages included 

structural and roof damage to three fish processing plants; lost or damaged boats and lost or damaged 

traps. Furthermore power outages led to spoilage of some stock. Estimated economic losses to the fisheries 

sector amounted to US $2,062,115.00 in total damage and losses (ECLAC, 2008). After the storms an 

estimated 500 lobster traps/pots were abandoned and threatened to cause even further losses to fisheries 

through ‘ghost fishing’. Extreme events are projected to intensify in coming years potentially causing severe 

economic losses to the country’s most significant export sector and third most important industry. 

Table 4.5.2: Total damage and loss in the fisheries subsector post Tropical Storm Hannah and Hurricane Ike 

Area Damage Losses Total Damage & Losses 

Providenciales $24,000 $40,000 $64,000 

Grand Turk $130,000 $360,000 $490,000 

South Caicos $678,115 $830,000 $1,508,115 

TOTAL $832,115 $1,230,000 $2,062,115 

( Source: ECLAC estimates based on official government data) 

An additional concern is that warmer temperatures may increase the frequency of algal blooms as well as 

the likelihood of ciguatoxin infection, a potentially fatal toxin to humans that accumulates in the tissues of 

some species of fish (Confalonieri, Menne, Akhtar, Ebi, Hauengue, & Kovats, 2007; Tester, Feldman, Naua, 

Kibler, & Litaker, 2010) (for further details, see Section 4.4.3). TCI’s fisheries is closely tied to the tourism 

industry and as such negative impacts on one or both sectors could potentially devastate the island’s 

economy and have severe social impacts for fishers, their families and communities . 

Despite these concerns, little is understood about the long-term effects of climate change on Caribbean 

fisheries. A report from the Marine Resource Governance in the Eastern Caribbean Project of the Centre for 

Resource Management and Environmental Studies (CERMES) at the University of the West Indies has noted 

that while the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are well recognised, insufficient research 

has been carried out into the potential impacts on fishing, fish processing, trade and fisheries technical 

support services related to artisanal fisheries. 

Although not confirmed as a climate change related event, large quantities of Sargassum seaweed have 

been washing ashore on the islands of the Eastern Caribbean in July and August 2011. These floating mats 

of vegetation arrive in the Caribbean region annually but this year (2011) they appear to be doing so in 

unusually large quantities. Fishers are complaining that their nets and lines become entangled in the 

Sargassum and there is concern over the risk of disease and invasive species that may accompany the 

seaweed. The large volume and weight of seaweed washed up on some beaches poses a serious problem 

for the tourism industry as well as a major expense and logistical challenge for governments who opt to 

collect and dispose of the Sargassum. If this event is indeed related to cyclonic storms that have formed in 

the Atlantic during the 2011 Hurricane Season, then coastal and marine environmental managers should 

prepare for the likelihood of these events occurring with increased frequency in the near future. 

78

Figure 4.5.4: Unusual amount of Sargassum seaweed washed up on a Caribbean beach, August 2011 

79 

(Source: Richard Roach, 2011)

4.6. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure 

and Settlements 


Small islands have much of their infrastructure and settlements located on or near the coast, including 

tourism, government, health, commercial and transportation facilities. With its high-density development 

along the coast, the tourism sector is particularly vulnerable to climate change and SLR. The Turks and 

Caicos Islands is one of the Caribbean’s most important tourism destinations, where the threat of SLR has 

been identified as a particular concern in both the short and long-term. Turks and Caicos relies on its tourist 

industry for much of its national income, and therefore the economic effects of SLR and storm induced 

erosion are significant (Daniel, 2001). Of critical importance is the threat of beach erosion to the majority of 

existing and expected tourism facilities sited in areas located near the coastline (e.g. historic downtown 

Cockburn Town) (Daniel, 2001). This section of the report will focus on the coastal vulnerabilities associated 

with ‘slow-onset’ impacts of climate change, particularly inundation from SLR and SLR induced beach 

erosion, as they relate to tourism infrastructure (e.g. resort properties), tourism attractions (e.g. sea turtle 

nesting sites) and related supporting tourism infrastructure (e.g. transportation networks). These 

vulnerabilities will be assessed at both the national (the Turks and Caicos Islands) and local scale (Grand 

Turk Cruise Centre, Grand Turk West Shore and Historic Cockburn Town), with adaptation and protection 

infrastructure options discussed. Please refer to the Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management section 

for climate change vulnerabilities and adaptation measures associated with event driven or ‘fast-onset’ 

impacts such as hurricanes. 

80

Figure 4.6.1: Grand Turk, The Turks and Caicos Islands - Overview Map 

Coastal areas already face pressure from natural forces (wind, waves, tides and currents), and human 

activities (beach sand removal and inappropriate construction of shoreline structures). The impacts of 

climate change, in particular SLR, will magnify these pressures and accelerate coastal erosion. Areas at 

greatest risk in the Turks and Caicos are the Grand Turk Cruise Centre, Grand Turk West Shore and Historic 

Cockburn Town, including notable resorts, ports and an airport that are at less than 6 m above sea level and 

will therefore be affected. The estimated coastline retreat due to SLR will have serious consequences for 

land uses along the coast (Mimura et al., 2007; Simpson et al., 2010), including tourism development and 

infrastructure. A primary design goal of coastal tourism resorts is to maintain coastal aesthetics of 

uninterrupted sea views and access to beach areas. As a result, tourism resort infrastructure is highly 

vulnerable to SLR inundation and related beach erosion. Moreover, the beaches themselves are critical 

assets for tourism in Turks and Caicos, with a large proportion of beaches being lost to inundation and 

accelerated erosion even before resort infrastructure is damaged. 

4.6.2. Vulnerability of Infrastructure and Settlements to Climate Change 

As outlined in Section 3, there is overwhelming scientific evidence that SLR associated with climate change 

is projected to occur in the 21 st Century and beyond, representing a chronic threat to the coastal zones in 

the Turks and Caicos Islands. The sea level has risen in the Caribbean at about 3.1 mm per year from 1950 

to 2000 (Church et al., 2004). Global SLR is anticipated to increase as much as 1.5 m to 2 m above present 

levels in the 21 st Century (Rahmstorf, 2007; Jevrejeva, Moore, & Grinsted, 2008; Horton et al., 2008; 

Grinsted, Moore, & Jevrejeva, 2009; Vermeer & Rahmstorf, 2009). It is also important to note that recent 

81

studies of the relative magnitude of regional SLR also suggest that because of the Caribbean’s proximity to 

the equator, SLR will be more pronounced than in some other regions (Bamber et al., 2009; Hu et al., 2009). 

Based on the SLR scenarios for the Caribbean (see Section 3.11) and consistent with other assessments of 

its potential impacts (e.g. Dasgupta et al., 2007), 1 m and 2 m SLR scenarios and beach erosion scenarios of 

50 m and 100 m were calculated to assess the potential vulnerability of major tourism resources across the 

Turks and Caicos Islands. Figure 4.6.2 is one example that illustrates the impacts of beach erosion are 

already being seen in the Turks and Caicos Islands. 

Figure 4.6.2: Erosion at Cedar Grove Beach, The Turks and Caicos Islands 

To examine the exposure of the Turks and Caicos to SLR, research grade Advanced Spaceborne Thermal 

Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Model (GDEM) data sets that were 

recently publically released by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japanese 

Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, were integrated into a Geographic Information System (GIS). The 

ASTER GDEM was downloaded from Japan’s Earth Remote Sensing Data Analysis Centre using a rough 

outline of the Caribbean to select the needed tiles, which were then loaded into an ArcMap document. The 

next step was to mosaic the tiles into a larger analysis area, followed by the creation of the SLR scenarios as 

binary raster layers to analyse whether an area is affected by SLR through the reclassification of the GDEM 

mosaics (see Simpson et al., 2010 for a more detailed discussion of the methodology). These assessments 

were used to calculate the impacts of SLR on the islands. 

Table 4.6.1 summarizes the transportation infrastructure that is at risk to a 1 m and 2 m SLR scenario. With 

1 m SLR, 1 of the 2 airport lands in the Turks and Caicos Islands would become inundated, along with 2 of 

the 5 ports and 30 km (4%) of the major road networks. With a 1 m SLR 73% of major resorts would be at 

risk of inundation and with a 2 m SLR 60% of turtle nesting sites would be lost. 

82

Table 4.6.1: Impacts associated with 1 m and 2 m SLR and 50m and 100m beach erosion in the Turks and Caicos 


EVENT SCALE 

Tourism Attractions Transportation Infrastructure 

Major 

Tourism 

Resorts 

Sea Turtle 

Nesting 

Sites 

83 

Airport 


Major 

Road 

Networks 

Port 


SLR 1.0 m 73% 44% 50% 4% 40% 

2.0 m 86% 60% - 6% - 

Erosion 50 m 95% 100% - - - 

100 m 100% - - - - 

To examine SLR-induced coastal erosion, a simplified approximation of the Bruun Rule (shoreline recession 

= SLR X 100) that has been used in other studies on the implications of SLR for coastal erosion was adopted 

for this analysis. The prediction of how SLR will reshape coastlines is influenced by a range of coastal 

morphological factors (e.g. coastal geology, bathymetry, waves, tidal currents, human interventions). The 

most widely used method of quantifying the response of sandy coastlines to rising sea levels is the Bruun 

Rule. This rule is appropriate for assessing shoreline retreat caused by the erosion of beach material from 

the higher part of the beach and deposition in the lower beach zone, re-establishing an equilibrium beach 

profile inland (Zhang, Douglas, & Leatherman, 2004). 

Results from the calculated SLR-induced erosion for a 50 m and 100 m scenario on key tourism attractions 

(resorts and sea turtle nesting sites) are provided in Table 4.6.1. Indeed if erosion is damaging tourism 

infrastructure, it means that the beach will have essentially disappeared. With projected 50 m erosion, 95% 

of the resorts in the Turks and Caicos Islands would be at risk, with all (100%) at risk with 100 m of erosion. 

Sea turtle nesting sites are also severely impacted by SLR-induced erosion, with 100% of these sites 

impacted with a 50 m erosion scenario. Such impacts would transform coastal tourism on the island, with 

implications for property values, insurance costs, destination competitiveness, marketing, and wider issues 

of local employment and the economic well-being of thousands of employees. 

In addition to the national assessment, the CARIBSAVE Partnership coordinated a field research team with 

members from the University of Waterloo (Canada) and the staff from the Department of Environment and 

Coastal Resources of the Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands to complete detailed coastal profile 

surveying (Figure 4.6.3). Using survey grade GPS equipment, CARIBSAVE field teams conducted survey 

transects (perpendicular to the shoreline) at three locations in Turks and Caicos (Grand Turk Cruise Centre, 

Grand Turk West Shore and Historic Cockburn Town) where tourism infrastructure was present. 

Study sites closer to the equator do not support Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) and are better 

suited for Real Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS. This common method often used in land based and hydrographic 

surveys requires the setting up of a base station over a known location at each study site. Due to the 

unavailability of a local reference station, a TOPCON RTK GPS system including base station (15 km radius), 

antenna, survey stick and data logger was used for data collection in TCI. 

The Base Station receiver was set up in wide open areas to maximize both study site and satellite coverage. 

A survey stick rover unit was then sent out to survey beach elevations along transects within the 15 km 

base station coverage area. Finally, distances between points along transects were measured using a Lecia 

Disto laser distancing meter.

Figure 4.6.3: Jodi Johnson (right), Environmental Officer for the Department of Environment and Coastal Resources 

with Ryan Sim (left), University of Waterloo Canada, using High Resolution Coastal Profile Surveying with an RTK 

GPS. 

Vertical measurements were adjusted according to the height of the receiver relative to the ground. The 

water’s edge was fixed to a datum point of 0 for the field measurements, but later adjusted according to 

tide charts. Generally, satellite connections were very good, receiving up to 10 satellites, resulting in submetre 

accuracy. The mean vertical accuracy for all points was approximately 0.015 to 0.3 m while the 

horizontal accuracy had a mean average of 0.015 to 0.2 m accuracy. Each transect point measurement was 

averaged over 30 readings taken at 1 second intervals. At each point, the nature of the ground cover (e.g. 

sand, vegetation, concrete) was logged to aid in the post-processing analysis. Ground control points (GCP) 

were taken to anchor the GPS positions to locations that are identifiable from aerial photographs to 

improve horizontal accuracy. These were taken where suitable landmarks existed at each transect location 

and throughout the island. GCP points were measured over 60 readings at 1 second intervals. 

Following the field collection, all of the GPS points were downloaded on to a Windows PC, and converted 

into several GIS formats. Most notably, the GPS points were converted into ESRI Shapefile format to be 

used with ESRI ArcGIS suite. Aerial Imagery was obtained from Google Earth, and was geo‐referenced using 

the GCPs collected. The data was then inspected for errors and incorporated with other GIS data collected 

while in the field. Absolute mean sea level was determined by comparing the first GPS point (water’s edge) 

to tide tables to determine the high tide mark. Three dimensional topographic models of each of the study 

sites were then produced from a raster topographic surface using the GPS elevation points as base height 

information. A Triangular Irregular Network (TIN) model was created to represent the beach profiles in 

three dimensions. Contour lines were delineated from both the TIN and raster topographic surface model. 

For the purpose of this study, contour lines were represented for every metre of elevation change above 

sea level. Using the topographic elevation data, flood lines were delineated in one metre intervals. In an 

effort to share the data with a wider audience, all GIS data will be compatible with several software 

applications, including Google Earth. 

The high resolution imagery provided by this technique is essential to assess the vulnerability of 

infrastructure and settlements to future SLR in the Turks and Caicos Islands. The imagery also has the ability 

84

to identify individual properties, making it a very powerful risk communication tool. Having this 

information available for community level dialogue on potential adaptation strategies is highly valuable. 

Detailed maps from the three study locations are provided in Figure 4.6.4, Figure 4.6.5 and Figure 4.6.6, 

highlighting total land and beach loss due to SLR. 

Figure 4.6.4: Total beach and land loss from SLR, Historic Downtown Cockburn Town, Grand Turk Island 

As shown in Figure 4.6.4, SLR in the historic downtown Cockburn Town on Grand Turk Island would result in 

a total land loss of 85,140.15 m 2 , with a total beach loss of 6,541 m 2 . Grand Turk Cruise Centre will face 

similar land loss impacts (85,140.15 m 2 ), with an even greater beach loss of 27,192.62 m 2 (Figure 4.6.5). 

This will have significant implications for the shoreline, with a loss of high value commercial tourism 

properties, including the popular White Sands Beach Resort. The Western Shore (Figure 4.6.6) will lose the 

greatest amount of beach area to SLR at 58,233.83 m 2 , impacting the Grand Turk Inn, Sea Breeze Guest 

House, and the Osprey Beach Hotel. The Western Shore is also at risk to an additional land loss of 

24,890 m 2 . 

85

Figure 4.6.5: Total beach and land loss from SLR, Grand Turk Cruise Centre, Grand Turk Island 

86

Figure 4.6.6: Total beach and land loss from SLR, Western Shore, Grand Turk Island 

Beach area losses at study sites in Turks and Caicos were calculated for 0.5 m, 1 m, 2 m and 3 m scenario 

(Table 4.6.2). At a 0.5 m SLR scenario, more than half of the beach area will be lost in Grand Turk West 

Shore (53%) and Historic Cockburn Town (65%). All (100%) of the beach area will be lost in Historic 

Cockburn Town under a 2 m SLR scenario, with all (100%) of the beach area in Grand Turk Cruise Centre 

and Grand Turk West Shore under a 3 m SLR scenario. It is important to note that the critical beach assets 

would be affected much earlier than the SLR induced inundation damages to tourism infrastructure due to 

SLR-induced coastal erosion. The response of tourists to such a diminished beach area remains an 

important question for future research; however local tourism operators perceive that these beach areas 

along with the prevailing climate are the island’s main tourism attractions. 

Table 4.6.2: Beach area losses at three beach locations in the Turks and Caicos Islands 

Grand Turk – Cruise 

Centre 

SLR Scenario Beach Beach 

Area Lost Area Lost 

to SLR m² (%) 

Grand Turk – West 

Shore 



m² 

(%) 

87 

Historic Cockburn 

Town 

Beach Beach 

Area Lost Area Lost 

to SLR m² (%) 

0.5m 12,149 45% 30,874 53% 4,275 65% 

1.0m 4,380 61% 9,887 70% 1,019 81% 

2.0m 9,886 97% 13,723 94% 1,247 100% 

3.0m 778 100% 3,750 100% - -

4.7. Comprehensive Natural Disaster Management 

4.7.1. History of Disaster Management Globally 

Though natural hazards have been affecting populations and interrupting both natural and human 

processes for millennia, only in the last several decades have concerted efforts to manage and respond to 

their impacts on human populations and settlements become a priority. Most recently, these efforts have 

been informed by work at the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (ISDR), a United Nations agency 

for disaster reduction created after the 1990s International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. After 

several years of reporting on hazards and impacts, the ISDR created the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) 

in 2005. This strategy aimed at preparing for and responding to disasters was adopted by many countries in 

order to address a growing concern over the vulnerability of humans and their settlements. The HFA took 

the challenges identified through disaster management research and practice and created five priorities: 

Priority #1: Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority with a strong 

institutional basis for implementation 

Priority #2: Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning. 

Priority #3: Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at 

all levels 

Priority #4: Reduce the underlying risk factors. 

Priority #5: Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels. 

(ISDR, 2005) 

Extensive elaboration of each priority is beyond the scope of this report. However, there are some key 

points to discuss before moving forward to a discussion of the local disaster management context. Priority 

#1 of the HFA can be thought of as the foundation for hazard and disaster management. 

Given that governance and institutions also play a critical role in reducing disaster risk,…fully 

engaging environmental managers in national disaster risk management mechanisms, and 

incorporating risk reduction criteria into environmental regulatory frameworks [are key options for 

improving how institutions address disaster-related issues] (UNEP, 2007, p. 15). 

The Hyogo Framework suggests strengthening effective and flexible institutions for enforcement and 

balancing of competing interests (UNEP, 2007). 

Priority #2 focuses on spatial planning to identify inappropriate development zones, appropriate buffer 

zones, land uses or building codes and the use of technology to model, forecast and project risks (UNEP, 

2007, p. 15). The development of technology for mapping, data analysis, modelling and measurement of 

hazard information offers decision makers a much better understanding of the interaction hazards have 

with their economy and society. 

Priority #3 encourages the promotion and integration of hazard education within schools to spread 

awareness of the risks and vulnerability to the individuals of at-risk communities. This relates to climate 

change awareness as well. The countries of the Caribbean, including TCI, not only face annual hazards, but 

will also be directly affected by changes in sea levels, more extreme temperatures and other predicted 

climate changes. By educating children, hazard information will be transferred to adults and basic 

knowledge about threats and proper response to hazards, as well as climate change, can help improve 

community-level resilience. It is important that hazard and climate change awareness be promoted within 

88

the tourism sector as well, since tourists may not be familiar with the hazards in their destination and will 

thus require direction from their hosts. 

Priority #4 of the HFA demands the synthesis of the previous three priorities: governance, education and 

awareness, and appropriate technologies. “To develop and implement effective plans aimed at saving lives, 

protecting the environment and protecting property threatened by disaster, all relevant stakeholders must 

be engaged: multi-stakeholder dialogue is key to successful emergency response” (UNEP, 2007). Not only is 

this dialogue encouraged here; Goal 8 of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) also advocates for 

participation and open communication. As climate change threatens the successful achievement of the HFA 

and the MDGs, simultaneous dialogue about development and risk management will ensure continued 

resilience in communities and countries across the Caribbean. 

The final priority of the Hyogo Framework, Priority #5, is geared toward a more proactive plan of action, 

rather than the reactive disaster management that has failed to save lives on many occasions in the past. It 

is now commonplace to have this same proactive approach to disaster management. However, finding 

ways to implement and execute these plans has proven more difficult (Clinton, 2006). As you will note, 

managing disaster risks requires a cross-sectoral understanding of the interdependent pressures that 

create vulnerability, as well as demanding cooperation of various sectors. 

4.7.2. Natural Hazards in the Caribbean and the Turks and Caicos Islands 

There are three broad categories of hazards, and the countries in the Caribbean Basin could face all, or 

most, of them at any given time. 

Table 4.7.1: Types of hazards in the Caribbean Basin 

Hydro-meteorological Hurricane 

Tropical Storm 

Flooding 

Drought 

Storm Surge 

Landslide/mud-flow 

Geological Earthquake 

Volcano 

Tsunami 

Biological Epidemic 

Wildfire/Bushfire 

The Turks and Caicos Islands (TCI) are low-lying, limestone islands with a flat topography characterised by 

sinkholes, springs and caves. The highest point in the island chain reaches 48 m above sea level. While TCI is 

located in the Atlantic Hurricane Belt, the chain of islands has been fortunate to have been significantly 

impacted by fewer than 20 storms since 1492 (Trotz, et al., 2004). 

A Hazard and Vulnerability Assessment conducted in 2008 showed that hurricanes typically follow 3 paths 

when they cross over TCI (ECLAC, 2008). Those paths and the vulnerability variation across the islands are 

shown in Figure 4.7.1. 

89

Figure 4.7.1: Storm surge predictions for a Category 5 Hurricane south of TCI 

TCI HVA Study Category 5 Hurricane coming from east and passing south of TCI. (Source: ECLAC, 2008; p. 7) 

The frequency of hurricanes that pass TCI is evidence to support the creation or retrofit of buildings so they 

can sustain high winds and also flooding through the use of a building code and land use plans that ensure 

adequate set-backs from both slow and fast-onset coastal hazards. A more specific study of Grand Turk 

shows that almost the entire island is vulnerable to storm surge related inundation (see Figure 4.7.2). This 

map also shows that the majority of development on the island is indeed at risk to as little as 1.6 m storm 

surges. Under projected scenarios, slow-onset SLR will impact coastal infrastructure and settlements, 

including 100% of major tourism resorts under a 3 m SLR scenario (see SLR maps in section 4.6). Fast-onset 

hazards (e.g. Category 3 hurricanes and higher) regularly create storm surges that inundate areas including 

those 3 m above sea level. The potential for higher storm surges than those shown in Figure 4.7.2 are 

possible in the future and, therefore, the combined impacts of SLR and storm surge can be expected in 

even larger areas of TCI (orange shading on the map). 

90

Hurricane Irene (2011) 

Figure 4.7.2: Grand Turk - Inundation Hazard Map 

91 

(Source: ECLAC, 2008) 

Hurricane Irene was a storm that passed through the Atlantic Basin in late August, 2011. When she passed 

through TCI, she was a Category 1 hurricane bringing high winds and intense rainfall. As would be expected 

given the flooding and storm surge vulnerability presented, preliminary news reports stated flooding as the 

most prevalent impact challenging persons throughout the island chain (CCRIF, 2011b). Storm surges were 

expected to raise tide levels and some areas experienced flood waters with a depth of 3 feet (0.9 m) 

(CDEMA, 2011). Wind damages to roofs and trees were visible in many areas as well. However, the impacts 

were not sufficient to incur a claim under the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF).

The important link between adaptive capacity to vulnerability cannot be ignored. Further discussion on 

policy, management and technological interventions in TCI are discussed in section 5.7. But an item of 

particular significance resulting from the impacts of Hurricane Irene is the need for the application of a 

building code and the need for individuals to ensure their property is properly maintained. 

Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike (2008) 

Tropical Storm Hanna passed over TCI from August 31 until Sept 3 bringing with her heavy rains and circling 

the islands for that period causing significant flooding (ECLAC, 2008). Hurricane Ike followed close behind 

allowing just 1 day for relief supplies to enter before the airport was shut down again (Goddard, 2008). Ike 

and Hanna resulted in physical damages to infrastructure from high winds and flooding. The total economic 

costs are estimated in excess of US $213 million (ECLAC, 2008). Nearly 95% of all buildings experienced 

significant damages including housing and public buildings such as hospitals (Goddard, 2008). These storms 

created the worst disaster to hit TCI in a generation and their impacts will not soon be forgotten. The 

potential for compounded impacts from consecutive storms also reinforces the need for strong 

preparedness efforts at the household level. Limited resources at the national level become strained when 

response and recovery efforts cannot be completed before the next impact. While this kind of planning has 

an effect on vulnerability, the actions required to improve preparedness are a bigger part of adaptive 

capacity (see section 5.7). 

Figure 4.7.3: Damaged causeway connecting Middle and North Caicos 

(Source: http://www.turks-and-caicos-adventure.com/middle-caicos.html) 

92

4.7.3. Vulnerability of the tourism sector to natural hazards 

An ECLAC assessment of the damages and losses caused by Hanna and Ike reveal the strong dependence on 

tourism economically, but also the high vulnerability of the tourism sector. 

Table 4.7.2: Distribution of impacts from Hanna and Ike by productive subsector (US $) 

Sector Damage Loss Total % of impacts 

Tourism $2,966,141.00 $8,849,917.00 $11,816,058.00 57% 

Agriculture $337,250.00 $74,025.00 $411,275.00 2% 

Fisheries $832,115.00 $1,220,000.00 $2,062,115.00 10% 

Wholesale and Retail Trade $3,951,840.00 $2,603,637.00 $6,555,477.00 31% 

Environment (waste removal) $4,800.00 $4,800.00 

Total $8,090,130.00 $14,772,379.00 $22,862,509.00 

(Source: ECLAC, 2008, p. 15) 

Damages to the tourism sector included many damaged roofs and although Providenciales, where the 

majority of the hotel rooms are located, was spared serious damages, they still had to keep 80% of the 

hotels closed for two weeks from the time Ike passed causing interruptions to employment and lost 

revenues nearing US $2,000,000 (ECLAC, 2008). 

Figure 4.7.4: Hurricane Ike damages in Grand Turk 

(Source: Associated Press, Brennan Linsley, 2008) 

93

4.8. Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development 

Where disasters take place in societies governed by power relations based on gender, age or social 

class, their impact will also reflect these relations and as a result, people’s experience of the 

disaster will vary. 


Madhavi Ariyabandu (ECLAC, UNIFEM and UNDP, 2005) 

Overview of Livelihoods, Poverty, Gender and Development Issues in the Turks and Caicos 


Tourism is a major employer on Providenciales with both nationals and non-nationals working in this 

sector. However, the industry is dominated by all-inclusive properties which provide a full range of services 

which makes visitors less inclined to venture beyond the hotel property. This factor, coupled with a small 

natural resource base locally, limits the number of employment or business opportunities outside of the 

hotels that can also stand to benefit from the tourism market (e.g. private taxi operators, vendors). 

Therefore, while tourism is a major employer, self-employment (especially for small and medium-sized 

enterprises) within the industry can be constrained. Unskilled residents who are unable to secure a job 

within the tourism (or other) industry, therefore stand a greater chance of remaining unemployed and 

without a source of income, thereby making them more vulnerable (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

The growth and expansion of tourism on the island of Providenciales, and spin-off effects in other sectors 

such as construction resulted in significant demands for labour on that island, which were met by an influx 

of persons from other islands within the Turks and Caicos Islands, as well as other North America and other 

Caribbean countries. Inflows of immigrants were particularly vast from Haiti, and the Dominican Republic to 

a lesser extent, seeking work opportunities, refuge and better living conditions in Providenciales at a time 

when the U.S. Immigration Policy and enforcement practices became more exclusive. While some 

immigrants have been successful in securing some form of work, many others remain without a source of 

income, and live in deplorable conditions (in some cases, conditions comparable to or worse than where 

they originated). This has given rise to what is referred to as “imported poverty” (Haitians account for just 

over one-third of the nation’s poor), and these groups are extremely vulnerable to any physical or 

economic shocks (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

Persons who are poor stand to lose significantly in the event of a personal or national crisis. Available 

poverty statistics derived from the last national poverty assessment in 1999/2000 indicated that 

approximately a quarter of the population in the Turks and Caicos Islands were living in poverty and slightly 

more than half of the nation’s poor were non-nationals. Poverty in locals was rooted in limited educational 

qualifications and the resulting inability to move beyond meagre-paying jobs. However, based on an overall 

declining trend in the rate of poverty from the earliest research, current poverty levels should be less acute 

than the 1999/2000 statistics, owing in part to further economic development and the implementation of 

social mechanisms specifically to alleviate poverty (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

Although the 1999/2000 statistics show slightly more poor females than males, gender does not correlate 

to poverty or the likelihood of being poor. However, as seen in other Caribbean territories, there is a higher 

rate of unemployment amongst women, when compared to men, and there are more female-headed single 

parent households within the lowest economic quintiles than the higher quintiles, with implications for a 

94

greater burden of care as poorer households tend to have more children, and possibly less resources to 

meet demands (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). 

4.8.2. Vulnerability of Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development to Climate 

Change 

Vulnerability in the context of climate change is a function of the level of exposure to climate change 

related or induced events, the level of sensitivity to these events and the capacity to adapt. Climate and 

hydrological variability have both short and long term manifestations at the global scale, and is more often 

compounded by micro- and meso-scale human activities and impacts. The observed and predicted impacts 

of climate change are widely acknowledged in science and non-science circles, including communities who 

depend on natural resources. 

Climate-sensitive or natural resource intensive livelihoods are very vulnerable to climate change impacts 

because they depend so much on the stability of climate conditions or resources. Groups predisposed to 

vulnerability include women, children and the nation’s poor, owing to their lack of access to resources and 

opportunities which translates into low resilience and exposes them more to climate change impacts than 

other groups. 

Poverty is an important factor in vulnerability, and climate change and poverty are inextricably linked, 

particularly as the poor are and will continue to be the most affected. The impacts of climate change 

undeniably aggravate the issue of poverty in all societies, and especially where poverty is extreme and 

widespread (Figure 4.8.1 highlights some of these impacts). The areas where impoverished persons reside 

are more often at greater risk when compared to areas inhabited by stronger economic groups, particularly 

remote rural and coastal areas which are disconnected from essential services and resources. 

The North and Middle Caicos Islands (and to a lesser extent, South Caicos and Grand Turk islands) have 

large percentages of poor persons, roughly ranging between 33% and 60% of any given island’s population. 

Providenciales has one of the lowest poverty rates by island amongst the different islands, despite that – 

with a growing percentage of the nation’s population living on the island – a third of the entire nation’s 

poor resides on Providenciales. The growth of tourism has boosted job creation with the establishment of 

several properties and supporting business/services in the area. However, the other islands do not have 

similar opportunities in the job market, and therefore have a greater proportion of residents who are 

unable to escape poverty by means of employment. Consequently, during the passage of Tropical Storm 

Hanna and Hurricane Ike in 2008, the poorest residents were some of the hardest hit. 

The impacts and aftermath of extreme weather events (e.g. flooding, drought, loss of lands and crops) and 

SLR (e.g. coastal erosion, salt water intrusion) deteriorate an already dire situation and leave persons in 

poverty with even less resources to survive (Kettle et al., n.d.). Conversely, climate change itself and the 

impacts it presents are also augmented by these same conditions of poverty, where the lack of access to 

resources and services almost dictates unsustainable environmental practices for survival (e.g. intense use 

of fossil fuels which promotes deforestation and contributes to GHG emissions, mismanagement of 

agricultural land and resources which encourages soil erosion, and decline in quality and output) (UNFPA, 

2007; Kettle et al., n.d.). 

95

SEVERE 

WEATHER 

•More frequent and 

intense floods 

•Rising sea levels 


intense storms 


intense droughts 

OUTCOMES 

•Less land to use 

•Loss of coastlines 

•Loss of delta areas 

which are major 

sources of food 

production 

•Spread of disease 

•Increase in migration 

Figure 4.8.1: The impacts of climate change on poverty 

Gender is given special consideration in assessing human vulnerability owing to the different roles and 

circumstances associated with men and women in society, and especially in disaster preparation and 

response. The Training Manual on Gender and Climate Change developed by the Global Gender and 

Climate Alliance (GGCA) highlights that gender-based vulnerability is not influenced by a single factor, but 

takes into account a number of factors, especially in the case of women who tend to have less or limited 

access to assets when compared to men. These factors have been identified as determinant factors of 

vulnerability and adaptive capacity, and include physical location, resources, knowledge, technology, 

power, decision-making, potential, education, health care and food (GGCA, 2009). 

The size and composition of an individual or social group’s asset base (natural, physical, social, human and 

financial) will determine to what extent they will be affected by, and respond to climate change impacts. A 

larger quantity and/or diversity of assets imply greater resilience and adaptive capacity. Conversely, a lack 

of assets will predispose individuals to increased vulnerability. Women therefore, who tend to have less 

access to assets and resources will bear disproportionate impacts from climate change on their livelihoods 

and general well-being, exacerbating existing risks and revealing other hidden issues (GGCA, 2009). The 

potential effects of climate change impacts (both direct and indirect) on women are highlighted in Table 

4.8.1. 

The 2000 Poverty Assessment Report indicated that just over a third of household heads in the Turks and 

Caicos Islands were female. Additionally, more female heads lived in poverty than male household heads as 

indicated above (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). A large number of women also work as domestic type 

workers (e.g. in the hotel sector) or within the informal economy to support themselves and their 

households. These livelihoods activities, while providing them with a source of income, are associated with 

low earnings, volatility and can be crippled easily by natural and economic shocks. The Poverty Assessment 

Report is a long-standing publication and as such, reported trends may have changed slightly. Little data of 

similar focus is available since the 2000 Report, and assumptions are made based on the possibility that 

previously reported trends may still exist. Therefore, in the event of severe weather, single women and 

single mothers with little resources are less able protect themselves and their families, making them more 

vulnerable to impacts, and the likelihood of being worse off after a disaster. Livelihoods that are especially 

climate-sensitive face the greatest threat. In the case of Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike, women 

who sold fruits and vegetables grown in backyard gardens suffered tremendously following the destruction 

of their fruit trees and vegetables (ECLAC, 2008). 

96 

IMPACTS ON 

POVERTY 

•Increase in poverty owing to: 

•less food and safe water 

•less land for living and agriculture 

•loss of livelihoods 

•decline in health 

•diversion of resources (people and 

money) away from fighting poverty 

to respond to disasters 

(Source: Kettle, Hogan, & Saul, n.d.)

CLIMATE CHANGE 

EFFECTS 

DIRECT 

INDIRECT 

Table 4.8.1: Direct and indirect risks of climate change and their potential effect on women 

POTENTIAL 

RISKS 

Increased ocean 

temperatures 

Increased drought 

and water 

shortage 

Increased 

extreme weather 

events 

Increased 

epidemics 

EXAMPLES 

OF RISKS 

Rising incidence of coral 

bleaching due to thermal 

stress. 

Morocco had 10 years of 

drought from 1984 to 

2000; northern Kenya 

experienced four severe 

droughts between 1983 

and 2001. 

Greater intensity and 

quantity of cyclones, 

hurricanes, floods and 

heat waves. 

Climate variability played a 

critical role in malaria 

epidemics in the East 

African highlands and 

accounted for an 

estimated 70% of variation 

in recent cholera series in 

Bangladesh. 

Loss of species By 2050, climate change 

could result in species 

extinctions ranging from 

18–35%. 

Decreased crop 

production 

In Africa, crop production 

is expected to decline 20– 

50% in response to 

extreme El Niño-like 

conditions. 

97 

POTENTIAL EFFECT 

ON WOMEN 

Loss of coral reefs can damage the tourism 

industry, a sector in which women comprise 

46% of the workforce. 

Women and girls in developing countries are 

often the primary collectors, users and 

managers of water. Decreases in water 

availability will jeopardize their families’ 

livelihoods and increase their workloads, and 

may have secondary effects such as lower 

school enrolment figures for girls or less 

opportunity for women to engage in incomegenerating 

activities. 

In a sample of 141 countries over the period 

1981–2002, it was found that, natural 

disasters (and their subsequent impact), on 

average, kill more women than men or kill 

women at an earlier age than men. 

Women have less access to medical services 

than men, and their workloads increase when 

they have to spend more time caring for the 

sick. 

Poorer households affected by HIV/AIDS have 

fewer resources to adapt to climate change 

impacts. Adopting new strategies for crop 

production or mobilizing livestock is harder 

for female-headed and infected households. 

Women often rely on crop diversity to 

accommodate climatic variability, but 

permanent temperature change will reduce 

agro-biodiversity and traditional medicine 

options, creating potential impacts on food 

security and health. 

Rural women in particular are responsible for 

half of the world’s food production and 

produce between 60-80% of the food in most 

developing countries. In Africa, the share of 

women affected by climate-related crop 

changes could range from 48% in Burkina 

Faso to 73% in the Congo. 

(Source: GGCA, 2009) 

While disasters create hardships for everyone, natural disasters kill, on average, more women than men or 

kill women at a younger age than men (WHO, 2010). Multiple variables contribute to the overall 

vulnerability of women in the country. Amongst the poor in particular, many women are caregivers and

carry the economic burden of households, which is often meagrely supported by jobs with a low income 

and based in the informal sector. These factors place them, and those that they are responsible for, at 

greater risk to natural events than men (Buvinic et al., 1999). 

Section 3 of this document outlines the likely changes to occur for given climate and ocean variables for the 

Turks and Caicos Islands over the next few decades. The outputs produced by both the RCM and GCMs for 

future weather and climate scenarios in the Turks and Caicos Islands are very similar to those of other 

islands in the Caribbean. Some of the more outstanding similarities include: 

1. An increase in the mean annual temperature and the number of ‘hot’ days and nights 

2. The likelihood of more intense cyclones resulting from warmer sea surface temperatures (although 

this is not conclusive). 

3. The likelihood of a decline in mean annual rainfall, and the total rainfall experienced during heavy 

rainfall events. 

4. The relative disappearance of ‘cold’ days and nights by the 2080s. 

5. Gradual sea level rise, which has been observed over previous years and therefore is expected to 

continue, but uncertainty remains with the actual rates of increase. 

These projections are associated with different degrees of certainty, based on the availability of observed 

(recorded) data, the outputs from model simulations, and the fact that some physical processes are too 

complex to be represented by these models. However, some of the trends indicated in these projections 

(up to 2080) are currently being observed, and therefore the likelihood of these projections taking effect 

should not be discounted. Likely outcomes in climate based on these projections include hotter, drier 

conditions and variable rainfall with implications for drought-like conditions. 

In light of these changes in climate, the risks to vulnerable social and livelihood groups increase. Hurricanes 

in particular are of great concern, and the potential impacts of a major hurricane especially on the local 

tourism industry are tremendous. Hurricanes are the most destructive climate events to affect the region, 

and with the likelihood of stronger events, their impact will be more widespread and severe. 

Other inferences can be made based on the projections outputted by both the RCM and GCMs. What is 

certain is that current climate trends will change in one way or another, and will therefore affect those 

industries and activities that are climate-sensitive and strongly dependent on natural resources, and in the 

case of the Turks and Caicos Islands, tourism is a national lifeline. Undoubtedly, a number of vulnerable 

sectors and subsectors are important to the subsistence of especially poorer households. However, gradual 

weather changes, sea level rise and the potential for increasing intensity (and possibly frequency which, 

although inconclusive, should remain a priority concern and be treated as such) of extreme weather events 

will have substantial effects on livelihood assets and activities in the Turks and Caicos Islands – with 

implications for sector contributions to GDP, employment, existing poverty levels and other facets of 

economic and social development (Alcamo, et al., 2007; Wilbanks, et al., 2007). 

Overview 

4.8.3. Case Study: The Lower Bight Community, Providenciales, Turks and Caicos 


Lower Bight on the island of Providenciales was selected as the community in which to implement the 

Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology developed by The CARIBSAVE 

98

Partnership based on the established criteria and recommendations from the Government of the Turks and 

Caicos Islands. 

Lower Bight is located adjacent to Grace Bay along the northern coastline of the island of Providenciales, 

the tourism capital of the Turks and Caicos Islands. In line with this, tourism is the major economic activity 

in Lower Bight, with numerous accommodation establishments, restaurants, arts and craft and marine 

excursions. Lower Bight Road, which is the main road and access lane in the community, runs parallel to the 

coastline and effectively divides the area into one zone with residential pockets (landward side, including 

some low-income households) and the seaward side where multiple tourism and other business entities 

are located. There are also some schools, churches and Government departments located in the area. 

Lower Bight is situated on an incline which runs from a ridge feature downwards until sea level. Some lowincome 

communities are located on the ridge to the western end of the community (called “Freddie’s 

Yard”) and also on the eastern end of Lower Bight. Based on its coastal location and the sloping nature of 

the land, people and infrastructure in the area are vulnerable to wind and water impacts from hurricanes, 

landslide events (specifically the low income households located on the southern side of the ridge), coastal 

inundation and storm surge impacts. This is especially concerning for the tourism properties which 

dominate the coastline, and by extension, the residents that are employed at these facilities. 

The CARIBSAVE Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology employed 

participatory tools to determine the context of this community’s exposure to hazards, and a sustainable 

livelihoods framework to assess its adaptive capacity. All data were disaggregated by gender and the three 

main means of data collection were: (i) a community vulnerability mapping exercise and discussion which 

were the main activities in a participatory workshop; (ii) 3 focus groups (2 single-sex; and 1 for those in 

tourism-related livelihoods; and (iii) household surveys to determine access to five livelihood assets 

(financial, physical, natural, social and human). Livelihood strategies (combinations of assets) were 

evaluated to determine the adaptive capacity of households and consequently the entire community. Even 

though observations were specific to some parts within the study area, overall findings (assessments of 

vulnerability and adaptive capacity) are assumed to be representative for the entire community. 

Natural resources and community livelihoods 

The sea, beaches, reef systems and marine life in the area of, or accessible from Lower Bight provide a basis 

for operating numerous enterprises, mainly within the tourism and fisheries industries. However, these 

resources face tremendous pressures from both natural and human sources, including storms, diseases, 

pollution and changes in the environment. One of the most recently discovered and rapidly growing threats 

to the marine environment is the lion fish, which is also a growing problem for some of the neighbouring 

islands. The presence of this alien species is concerning because – in addition to its voracious nature – it is 

very tolerant of extreme temperatures, even moreso than local commercial species which they feed on. 

Fishermen, and others, are extremely concerned since unless numbers are controlled quickly and 

effectively, the lion fish poses a serious threat to local marine wildlife and the fisheries sector. 

Agriculture is also practised on a very small scale, and farmers require (in addition to the natural elements) 

a given size of fertile, stable soil on which to plant crops or house and rear livestock. However, more 

farming land is desired to encourage more farming activities and increase self-sufficiency within the Lower 

Bight area. 

A large concentration of the island’s tourism infrastructure (including hotels, bars and restaurants and 

other recreation/entertainment facilities) is located in Lower Bight, taking advantage of the proximity of 

the beaches and sea. The “sun, sea and sand” concept is a major component of advertising the local 

99

tourism product, which is likewise used in many other Caribbean territories that have a heavy dependence 

on tourism. This marketing concept underscores the necessary resources and conditions for tourism to 

thrive: clear skies, limited or at least predictable rain, beautiful beaches and a pristine marine environment. 

Visitors appreciate and ultimately make their travel plans to enjoy stable weather and calm seas. Minor 

rainfall events are accommodated, but prolonged and heavy rainfall prohibits the outdoor activities that 

visitors seek out. Persons who work at sea – including fishermen, sports fishing operators, snorkelling and 

dive operators – also prefer stable weather and calm seas, although this is less of a priority for fishermen 

who fish for subsistence than the marine recreation operators who are patronised by tourists. Although 

fishermen may live in the area, and use the nearby beach as a landing site, fishing is done further offshore 

outside of the nearby national park. 

Many of residents who live in Lower Bight are employed by hotels or some of the smaller tourism 

enterprises. Some residents are also craft vendors, patronised by tourists. The hotel and restaurant sector 

is dominated by female employees who work within ancillary, housekeeping, food and beverage and front 

desk service departments. Jobs in the tourism industry that are dominated by men include security officers, 

chefs and bartenders in hotels; conducting sports fishing, diving and snorkelling tours; engage in craftmaking 

and vending; and work as tour guides and taxi operators who take visitors on tours and excursions 

around the island. 

The sources of water supply in Turks and Caicos Islands are rainfall (some residents have installed water 

cisterns to collect and store rainwater), desalination as well as some groundwater resources. Wells and 

cesspits are of great importance for water resources on Providenciales especially. Most residents have 

access to the piped water supply (or “city water”), but squatters tend to use water from wells. There is a 

concern that in the event of a severe flood, there would be contamination of groundwater resources as a 

result of pollution in the watershed. It was previously proposed at the government level that some of the 

wells be capped to protect them from pollution. 

Community knowledge of climate change and observed changes to the natural environment 

Knowledge of climate change within the community varies: residents perceive their knowledge to range 

from ‘average’ to ‘poor’. Some residents may be aware of some climate change issues through the media, 

public education materials or through their work. However, just as many residents have had no direct 

contact with climate change concepts or issues. Some of the perceptions are highlighted below: 

1. The most widely shared view defined climate change as a change in weather patterns 

2. Changes in, or changes that affect the natural environment. Differences have been observed 

especially over the last two decades, including declines in biodiversity (specifically, some species of 

fish and birds) and soil erosion. 

3. Persons or countries that do not believe in climate change, or support actions to reduce the 

impacts are in most cases (i) the most affected and (ii) the greatest contributors. 

4. Climate change is considered to be a precursor to a major apocalyptic-scale or religious-type 

occurrence (i.e. “a sign of the times”). 

5. Climate change is also associated with extreme, short-term events such as hurricanes. Some 

residents recalled Hurricane Kate (1985), which caused significant damage across the islands. The 

storms of 1945 and 1960 were also catastrophic. 

Based on their own evaluation, there are no significant differences between the knowledge of men and 

women, who share similar perspectives on the manifestation of climate change and the observed changes 

in the natural environment. However, views on gender vulnerability to climate change impacts differ, as 

100

each gender group is of the opinion that their group is the more vulnerable of the two. This is explained 

later in this section. 

The community has experienced severe weather in the past, and some residents have also observed 

gradual changes in weather patterns. Some patterns that were specifically pointed out by community 

residents included an increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes, increasing ambient 

temperatures, warmer sea surface temperatures which has resulted in bleaching of nearshore reefs, and 

sea encroachment. Residents that have some awareness of climate change understand that the effects 

have started and that the community is at greater risk as time passes. Residents who were previously 

unfamiliar with climate change are seemingly now aware of current and future implications. 

Community observations collectively point towards an increasing frequency of severe weather systems 

impacting the Turks and Caicos Islands, highlighting that three hurricanes were experienced within the last 

5-6 years, before which the last storm of that magnitude affecting the community was in 1985, and prior to 

that, 1960. Further, two of these three systems affected the country in 2008 within a span of two weeks 

(Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike). It was suggested that climate change contributes to the “crazy” 

and unpredictable tracks that hurricanes are taking. This perception was based on the behaviour exhibited 

by Tropical Storm Hanna, which initially passed the Turks and Caicos Islands, but subsequently “looped 

back” and affected the country extensively. 

Lower Bight residents also experienced extremely high temperatures this year compared to previous years, 

and daytime temperatures during the summer period are reportedly hotter than pervious times, and occur 

more frequently, even though part of the summer period coincides with the wet season. It was also 

highlighted that the occurrence of extremely hot days appeared to have started much earlier in 2011 than 

before. Winter months were also reported to be warmer than normal. 

An apparent explosion in the mosquito population has also been observed by community residents within 

Lower Bight, which likely indicates that breeding spaces have grown or are left unattended. The mosquitoes 

are considered a nuisance in the very least, and potentially pose a severe threat to well-being of 

community residents, especially in the event that it is the Aedes aegypti species – the Dengue Fever carrier. 

Marine biodiversity has also declined as there are less species observed in the water, as well as smaller 

populations of fish. Fishermen have expressed the need to sail further out to get a “decent-sized” catch, 

and they have also noticed that the size of some species (e.g. conch) is continually decreasing. The decline 

in life stocks have not only been observed by residents, but visitors as well. A story was relayed where one 

tourist noticed the decline in fish stocks and had expressed disappointment because his grandchildren who 

were on holiday with him were unable to see the fish that he observed in abundance on previous trips. 

Beach erosion and sea encroachment also appears to be a serious issue. Residents reported that one house 

in the area no longer exists as a result of the encroaching water, and some properties with swimming pools 

on the beach were affected and the pools were subsequently demolished. Residents who work at sea are 

aware that natural erosion cycles occur, but the extensive amount of erosion that has taken place during 

these cycles is reported as unusual. 

Impacts of Weather and Climate on Community Livelihoods and Development 

In the Lower Bight area, there were very few significant impacts on residents from recent extreme events, 

specifically Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike in 2008. Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike were 

only a week apart, but the experiences from Tropical Storm Hanna potentially saved lives and property 

during the passage of Hurricane Ike, because after the experience of Hanna, residents took Hurricane Ike (a 

much stronger system) more seriously. There was no loss of life, or significant loss of property. There were 

101

power outages and blocked road access for a short period, but the utilities and other major infrastructure 

remained intact. Residents reverted to using traditional methods for food preparation (e.g. coal stoves) 

after the hurricane when no electricity or gas was available. Comparing the impacts on Providenciales to 

those on neighbouring islands, there were very different experiences in Grand Turk and South Caicos, 

where many houses suffered extreme damage, but to a lesser degree in the latter. North Caicos however, 

much like Providenciales, suffered relatively little physical impact. 

It is the norm that with the expected passage of a hurricane, all tourism centres are closed, and tourists are 

usually evacuated from the island. If accommodation facilities are damaged, they may remain closed until 

repairs have been completed. Undamaged properties may still suffer from a lack of power or water for 

some time, and as a result, may remain closed. Employees may be out of work temporarily until normal 

functions resume. In the two weeks after Hurricane Ike, an estimated 80% of the hotels on Providenciales 

remained closed. This resulted in losses of approximately $2,000,000 in revenue (ECLAC, 2008). 

Most of the hotels in Grand Turk, in particular, experienced extensive roof damage or complete loss of 

roofs which resulted in damage to equipment and furnishings. In addition, Hurricane Ike was particularly 

harmful to trees and other forms of vegetation. Based on the level of damage experienced by the hotels, a 

majority of proprietors anticipated being out of business for between 8-12 weeks. In some cases though, 

hotels began operating on reduced capacity (ECLAC, 2008). 

Most large employers would continue to pay their staff despite the temporary closure, so financially; these 

persons are less adversely affected. However, smaller operators and self-employed persons (e.g. vendors) 

lose income each day that they are unable to work, whether due to their own circumstances (e.g. damaged 

assets), lack of access or utilities, or lack of customers. The latter can especially undermine any incomemaking 

efforts, in cases where the majority of the clientele are tourists, and tourist flows can shrink 

considerably for an extended period of time following a hurricane. 

After the experiences with Ike and Hanna, there is a greater awareness of how to prepare for tropical 

storms and hurricanes. The building code was adjusted and further enforced after these events to ensure 

that new buildings were capable of withstanding hurricane force winds and impacts, and by large measure 

to reduce the vulnerability (and losses) to individuals and businesses. 

With regards to flooding impacts, Lower Bight experienced some flooding in November of 2008 and in 

summer of 2005 (two events in 2005). The community sits on a hill above the coast, but the coastal road 

(Lower Bight Road) is the main access road, which can be cut off during a flood. Experiences vary and 

depend on one’s respective location within the community. Some residents suggest that floodwaters tend 

to recede quickly, whereas other residents, especially in developed or cemented areas; report that water 

tends to pond (e.g. on the road). Flooding may result in minor damage to persons living in the community, 

but presents more of an issue for access and transportation, as residents may not be able to commute as 

desired until waters have receded. 

Storm surge impacts vary depending on the intensity of the passing weather system. Light to moderate 

storm surge events will cause major beach erosion and affect hotel properties and facilities that are 

situated on the beach. However, more extreme storm surge events can cause coastal inundation and more 

extensive damage to coastal infrastructure. Small craft (yachts, diveboats, fishing boats) docking along the 

coast (e.g. in Turtle Cove Marina, though not in Lower Bight proper) are extremely vulnerable to storm 

surge impacts, and can be severely damaged during hurricanes despite heavy anchoring. 

Another important sector of employment for Lower Bight residents is construction. This sector consists 

mainly of men, working as self employed masons and carpenters, or employed with a larger construction 

102

entity. One of the key resources necessary for construction includes sand, but this is sourced externally as 

required quantities cannot be produced within the country. Other materials may be sourced locally, or may 

also be imported. Severe weather would impact on construction work and progress. Work can otherwise 

proceed in stable or slightly unstable weather. The aftermath of destruction after hurricanes and tropical 

storms is also known to temporarily boost the construction industry, which becomes a priority sector in 

efforts to restore and rebuild infrastructure as quickly as possible so that normal country operations can 

resume. 

Gender roles in community development 

At the level of Government, there are no local divisions or representatives in the Turks and Caicos Islands, 

as Direct Rule was enforced in 2009 by the British Government. Ordinarily, the Bight itself constituted one 

electoral division, and both men and women were legally allowed to contest elections. However, men are 

substantially more active in politics than women – a common trait in the political landscape across the 

Caribbean, although this appears to stem from a lack of interest on the part of women moreso than gender 

discrimination in politics. There are no strong or formal community organisations which contribute to the 

running of the community in Lower Bight specifically, but smaller, less formal community groups exist to 

effect micro-scale community development. These community groups are also gender-inclusive, but may 

have more or less involvement of either gender based on the group’s objectives and work, and the interest 

of residents. 

In Providenciales, it was suggested that there are more local women than men, and this is reflected in 

national statistics (e.g. Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000). Community residents suggested that figures are 

less disparate when foreign populations are included, but women still outnumber men slightly. Many men 

were reported to have migrated for work in previous times, resulting in a larger proportion of females 

remaining on the island and therefore leaving a relatively large number of female-headed households. 

Results from the household surveys also support this perspective (See Section 5.8). At the household level, 

it was reported that the financially-independent women are more career-oriented and many of them tend 

not to have families. However, men also consider themselves as the financial providers for the family in 

more middle-income situations because a number of women have housewife roles and do not engage in 

any income-generating activities. There are also a notable number of single-mother households. Under 

normal circumstances, these households “get by”, but impacts of severe weather often results in a 

significantly reduced ability to provide even basic needs. 

Gender roles in disaster management 

Men within the community consider themselves to be more vulnerable to weather and climate impacts 

than women, because they give much less regard to climate risks than women and therefore, without any 

anticipatory buffer or protection; stand to be impacted significantly. Conversely, women perceive their 

vulnerabilities to be greater for several reasons based on differential access to social and economic benefits 

compared to men; the resulting disadvantages that expose them more to the impacts of weather and 

climate; and the fact that they bear more social vulnerabilities because of the burden of family care 

especially in female-headed single-parent households. However, with the onset of tropical storms or 

hurricanes and the associated impacts from flooding and storm surge, preparation is traditionally shared: 

women ensure that necessary food and water supplies are present and in good supply, and tend to more 

domestic-type tasks; and men take on the more physically-demanding tasks such as affixing shutters and 

making repairs. After the system has passed, a similar division of labour follows suit. Men look after 

structural repairs and assessments of damage around the house and community. Women will ensure family 

well-being and assist with cleaning and clearing. 

103

Reportedly, Red Cross assistance efforts in Grand Turk following the 2008 hurricanes were undertaken 

mostly by women, as many men resorted to drinking alcohol and playing dominoes, as a way to deal with 

the stress and trauma of the events. There were very frequent deaths in the elderly after Hurricane Ike 

throughout Turks and Caicos, which was suggested to be resulting from the psychological impacts of the 

hurricane, the magnitude of which was not seen since 1945 and 1960. 

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5. ADAPTIVE CAPACITY PROFILE FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS 

Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to evolve in order to accommodate climate changes or to 

expand the range of vulnerability to which it can cope (Nicholls et al., 2007). Many small island states have 

low adaptive capacity and adaptation costs are high relative to GDP (Mimura et al., 2007). Overall the 

adaptive capacity of small island states is low due to the physical size of nations, limited access to capital 

and technology, shortage of human resource skills and limited access to resources for construction (IPCC, 

2001). 

Low adaptive capacity, amongst other things, enhances vulnerability and reduces resilience to climate 

change (Mimura et al., 2007). While even a high adaptive capacity may not translate into effective 

adaptation if there is no commitment to sustained action (Luers and Moser, 2006). In addition, Mimura et 

al. (2007) suggest that very little work has been done on adaptive capacity of small island states; therefore 

this project aims to improve data and knowledge on both vulnerability and adaptive capacity in the 

Caribbean small island states to improve each country’s capacity to respond to climate change. 

Information on the following factors was gathered, where possible to reflect adaptive capacity for each 

socio-economic sector: 

Resource availability (financial, human, knowledge, technical) 

Institutional and governance networks and competence 

Political leadership and commitment 

Social capital and equity 

Information technologies and communication systems 

Health of environment 

The information is arranged by sector, under the headings Policy, Management and Technology in order to 

facilitate comparisons across sectors and help decision makers identify areas for potential collaboration 

and synergy. Some of these synergies have been included in practical Recommendations and Strategies for 

Action which is the following section of this report 

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5.1.1. Policy 

An investment of US $23.6M in water and wastewater is planned between 2008 and 2017 as part of the 

National Socio-economic Development Strategy, with the bulk of the investment (US $19M) beginning in 

2014 (DEPS, 2007a). These works are led by the Department of Water Undertaking and include waterworks 

infrastructure (US $4.9M), the development of centralised wastewater systems (US $18.6M), along with the 

development of a Water and Wastewater Department through restructuring and building capacity within 

the Ministry of Works (DEPS, 2007a). However, following economic damage of US $213.6M caused by 

tropical storm Hanna and hurricane Ike in 2008 (ECLAC, 2008), together with the global recession and a 

high dependency on tourism (Byron, 2011), the economy of the Turks and Caicos Islands has stalled and 

annual growth in GDP has been declining since 2006 (ECLAC, 2008). Even so, the water sector as a 

proportion of total GDP for has been increasing yearly between 2000 and 2009, and now represents just 

over 1% of all economic activity (see Table 5.1.1 and Figure 5.1.1). In an effort to reduce the budget deficit, 

three new taxes are planning to be launched in the budget for 2011-2012. These taxes include a tax for 

water consumption. Both commercial customers that have their own in house water treatment facilities 

and residential customers consuming more than 3,000 gallons per month will be taxed according to the 

proposal (MOFED, 2011). 

GDP 

(US$ 

‘000) 

Table 5.1.1: TCI water sector as a proportion of GDP, Current Economic Prices 

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 

Total 

GDP 

319,443 358,745 366,708 409,754 485,599 578,646 721,891 795,349 888,500 795,634 

Water 

sector 

1,543 1,920 2,582 3,341 4,512 5,416 5,956 7,548 8,206 8,637 

(%) 0.48 0.54 0.70 0.82 0.93 0.94 0.83 0.95 0.92 1.09 

GDP (US$'000) 

10,000 

9,000 

8,000 

7,000 

6,000 

5,000 

4,000 

3,000 

2,000 

1,000 

0 

GDP by economic 

activity (water) 

Water as a % of 

total GDP 

Figure 5.1.1: GDP by the water sector (current economic prices) 2000-2009 

106 

(Source: Adapted from ECLAC, 2008) 

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 

Year 

1.2 

1 

0.8 

0.6 

0.4 

0.2 

0 

(Source: DEPS, 2011) 

Percentage of total GDP

The institutional and regulatory framework for water management in the Turks and Caicos Islands is limited 

to water supply management and, to a much lesser extent, wastewater management. Water demand 

management, water supply planning, protection of underground water quality, and the monitoring and 

regulation of desalination are all lacking (DEPS, 2007b). The National Socio-economic Development Strategy 

aims to address these deficiencies and deliver a sustainable water supply, as well as addressing previously 

neglected aspects of water resources management, including: water demand management; ecological 

health and water quality; catchment protection; water conservation; wastewater management; and storm 

water and flood control (DEPS, 2007b). The Strategy aims to adopt an “Integrated Water Cycle 

Management” (IWCM) approach which will improve the management of water resources and reform the 

water sector by: 

1. Ensuring sustainable water use in promoting a productive economy; 

2. Maximising efficiency and effectiveness of water use and reuse; 

3. Setting goals for water conservation and maintaining water quality; 

4. Developing an appropriate structure for the management of water resources; and 

5. Committing to actions for integrated water management based on managing short and long term 

risks to water resources. 

(DEPS, 2007b) 

In order to achieve this, the National Socio-economic Development Strategy calls for the development of a 

National IWCM Policy and Action Plan and the creation of an institution with the main responsibility for 

water resources management. This institution would have the responsibility for the: 

1. Implementation of measures detailed in the IWCM Policy and Action Plan; 

2. Monitoring and managing all the country’s water resources (ground water, sea water, storm water) 

and water quality; 

3. Establishment of an appropriate system for monitoring and regulating the performance of 

desalination plants and sewage treatment plants; 

4. Undertaking necessary studies and analysis to determine water budgets, water demand; 

5. Collection and management of water resources data and information; 

6. Conservation of water and management of water demands through public education and 

awareness and building partnerships and relationships with water users and managers; and 

7. Establishment of a mechanism to communicate with water sector stakeholders. 

(DEPS, 2007b) 

The development of the IWCM is being led by the Department of Water Undertaking with a total budget of 

US $5.2M between 2008 and 2017 (DEPS, 2007a). This will be supported by an appropriate legislative 

framework, after Government review of current legislation (DEPS, 2007a). 

The National Socio-economic Development Strategy additionally aims to strengthen the environmental 

regulatory and policy framework allowing sustainable environmental management and protection through 

compliance and enforcement with a new Environmental Permitting Legislation. Among other things, this 

aims to: establish a multi-disciplinary Environmental Advisory Council and an Appeal Board; strengthen 

current the Environmental Monitoring and Compliance system; establish the baseline condition of natural 

resources and ecosystems (DEPS, 2007a). The Strategy also addresses climate change adaptation, for which 

it calls for a multi-sectoral approach, and the development of a Climate Change Adaptation Policy and 

Action Plan. In a first step towards this, in February 2011 a Green Paper for climate change was published 

(Climate Change Committee, 2011). This is intended to help facilitate consultations and discussions with 

stakeholders about a viable climate change strategy for the Turks and Caicos Islands (Climate Change 

Committee, 2011). In the Green Paper, the following climate change adaptation strategies are given for 

water resources: 


107

6. Rainwater harvesting (i.e. from rooftops) and tanks: to store rain water as an alternative source of 

drinking water so that communities aren’t solely reliant on groundwater. 

7. Increase resilience to heavy rain events by improving infrastructure design 

8. Local watershed management: support institutions that have the authority to manage the local 

catchment in the interest of all stakeholders, including domestic water users; ensure there is 

proper accountability in these institutions. 

(Climate Change Committee, 2011) 

These adaptation strategies are supplemented by the following action plan: 

1. Build local understanding on the links between predicted climate change and the impacts that this 

will have on water resources at a local level. 


3. Educate the public about improving water capture in households. 

4. Repair and expand public infrastructure for water capture and storage. 

5. Establish a leak detection programme. 

6. Conduct a hydrological study in the Turks and Caicos Islands to assess water availability and 

location. 

7. Enhance the local weather monitoring and modelling to provide early flood warning systems. 

8. Explore the option of using groundwater resources for specific purposes (e.g. agriculture in North 

Caicos). 

9. Plan for expansion of desalination production based on the projected water demand. 

(Climate Change Committee, 2011). 

In addition, a new Environmental Management Bill is currently under discussion (Climate Change 

Committee, 2011a,b) . 

5.1.2. Management 

The main stakeholders in the Water Sector of the Turks and Caicos Islands are the Providenciales Water 

Company (Provo Water) which is located on Providenciales and is part public-part private owned; The 

Water Undertaking Department which is responsible for pipeline distribution and water production on 

other islands; The Water and Sewerage Board, the Department of Environmental and Coastal Resources, 

Department of Planning and the Department of Health (Byron, 2011). 

The Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands is committed to water supply mainly run by the private 

sector, as happens on Providenciales with Provo Water, and aims to expand its role. The Government is 

transitioning from the role of direct supplier to acting as a regulator, through the Department of Water 

Undertaking in the Ministry of Communications, Works, Utilities, Housing and Agriculture, starting with 

Grand Turk, South Caicos and Salt Cay. North and Middle Caicos will continue to be supplied by the 

Department of Water Undertaking. Stated priorities are the expansion of desalination capability in Grand 

Turk, the expansion of the water mains networks across the Islands, and a reduction in loss from the 

distribution system. Universal installation of metering systems will also be implemented (DEPS, 2007a). In 

addition, at the same time, the Government is committed to the centralisation of wastewater treatment 

and disposal in strategic locations (DEPS, 2007b), as required by the Turks and Caicos Islands Environmental 

Charter, which adds explicit procedures and standards for sewage disposal to Section 106 of the Water and 

Sewer Ordnance, and provides for strong penalties to compel mitigation (DECR, 2009). 

108

5.1.3. Technology 

Hydrological and meteorological data are critical for making informed decisions regarding the development 

of water resources. Currently, no single agency in the Turks and Caicos Islands is responsible for collecting 

and managing hydrological data (DEPS, 2007b). The collection and management of climatic data are the 

responsibility of the Aviation Services, based in Providenciales (DEPS, 2007b); while the Environmental 

Health Department also collects monthly rainfall data from several islands (ECLAC, 2008). The National 

Socio-economic Development Strategy recognises that hydrological meteorological services is a 

fundamental requirement to allow understanding of local weather and climate and to provide information 

for the development and management of water-sensitive sectors (DEPS, 2007b). These data will become 

even more critical for observing changes in water supply and decision making regarding the provision of 

water resources in future as a result of climate change related events such as droughts. As such, the 

Strategy aims to strengthen the national meteorological and hydrological monitoring network by: 

1. Establishing a meteorological and hydrological services agency; 

2. Expanding the meteorological observation station network; 

3. Building a climate and hydrological database; and 

4. Fostering greater collaboration with regional and international meteorological networks. 

(DEPS, 2007b) 

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5.2.1. Policy 

As evident from current energy documents in many countries both in the Caribbean and outside, tourism is 

not central in the consideration of wider strategies to reduce energy use (Brewster, 2005; Haraksingh, 

2001). Yet, as this document has shown for Turks and Caicos, its share in energy use and emissions is 

considerable, and likely to grow in the future, leading to growing vulnerabilities in a business-as-usual 

scenario. At the same time, the sector holds great potential for energy reductions and should thus be one 

of the focus points of policy considerations to de-carbonize island economies. It is vital for governments to 

engage in tourism climate policy, because tourism is largely a private sector activity with close relationships 

with the public sector at supranational, national, regional and local government levels, and through politics, 

there is thus an outreach to all tourism actors. Furthermore, governments are involved in creating 

infrastructure such as airports, roads or railways, and they also stimulate tourism development, as 

exemplified by marketing campaigns. The choices and preferences of governments thus create the 

preconditions for tourism development and low-carbon economies. Finally, there is growing consensus that 

climate policy has a key role to play in the transformation of tourism towards sustainability, not least 

because technological innovation and behavioural change will demand strong regulatory environments. 

The Climate Change Green Paper identifies a number of actions related to energy use in the tourism sector 

in the short, medium and long term. In the short term it recommends that the tourism industry is 

encouraged to reduce energy use and build eco-friendly designs. In the medium term it calls for the 

adoption of greener technologies at tourism facilities and in the long term for attaining Green Globe, Green 

Key and Green Hotel certifications (Climate Change Committee, 2011b). 

As described earlier and pointed out by OECD (2010), emissions of greenhouse gases essentially represent a 

market failure where there is little incentive to innovate. It has been shown that the fairest and most 

efficient way of reducing emissions is to consider increased fuel prices, i.e. to introduce a tax on fuel or 

emissions. Carbon taxes may be feasible for accommodation, car transport and other situations where 

tourism activities cause environmental problems. Taxation is generally more acceptable if taxes are 

earmarked for a specific use, which in this case could for instance include incentives for the greening of 

tourism businesses. Tax burdens would then be cost-neutral for tourism, but help to speed up the greening 

of the sector. If communicated properly, businesses as well as tourists will accept such instruments, and the 

economic effect can be considerable. The Maldives charge, for instance, US $10 per bed night spent in 

hotels, resorts, guesthouses and yachts, which accounts for 60% of government revenue (McAller et al., 

2005). 

Only limited legislation appears to have been passed in Turks and Caicos, including an additional fuel tax of 

50 cents per imperial gallon of fuel, half of which (25 cents) was implemented up to April 2011 (FP Turks 

and Caicos, 2011b). According to Castalia (2011) the Turks and Caicos Islands’ legal and regulatory 

framework does not provide adequate rules and incentives for more sustainable production and 

consumption of electricity. For example, there is no obligation for utilities to purchase renewable energy 

from third parties when it costs less, no metering or tariff arrangements to integrate such providers and the 

Building Code and Development Manual do not address energy efficiency. The report also highlights that 

the existing tariff structures do not encourage efficient use of energy, which is interesting, since the 

proposed Energy Conservation Policy put forward aims to introduce new technology in order to lower 

electricity costs. As reported in Section 4.2.1, this is not in line with suggestions by supranational 

organizations to increase the cost of energy in order to reduce consumption (OECD & UNEP, 2011). PPC has 

110

equested a rate review to rebalance rates among the various customer categories to better reflect cost of 

service in particular for hotels, for which the tariff is under the average cost of service (Castalia, 2011). 

However, there are preferential rates of duty in place for certain sustainable energy equipment and 

technologies (e.g. compact fluorescent bulbs and solar water heaters), with higher duties on clothes dryers, 

electric water heaters and electrical heating resistors. 

Instead of reducing electricity costs, the savings made in introducing the new technologies should be reinvested 

in additional renewable technologies and sustainable energy development to further reduce 

dependence on fossil fuel imports. Haraksingh (2001), for instance, outlines that there is a huge potential to 

use solar energy. Both economical and non-economical technical solutions to reduce the energydependency 

of islands in the Caribbean could thus be implemented based on regulation, market-based 

approaches and incentives, as well as through financing derived from voluntary and regulatory carbon 

markets. Policy intervention is however needed to initiate these processes. Overall, Haraksingh (2001: 654; 

see also Headley, 1998) suggests that: 

The Caribbean region is a virtual powerhouse of solar and other renewable sources of energy 

waiting to be exploited. It has the advantage of not having winters when hot water demands can 

increase from summer by approximately 70% in cold climates. Solar water heaters for the tourism 

industry and domestic and commercial usage have perhaps the greatest potential. There is a 

general commitment to the development of RE, but matters have not gone very far beyond this. 

The movement towards greater implementation of RE technologies is gaining strength, but there 

is a large gap between policy goals and actual achievement. Clearly, much work still needs to be 

done. Government fiscal incentives, greater infrastructure for policy development as well as joint 

venture partnerships are needed in the Caribbean region for a smooth transition. 

Turks and Caicos have laid the groundwork for future renewable energy and energy efficiency initiatives 

through the development of the Energy Conservation Policy and Implementation Strategy (Castalia, 2011). 

However, more effort and resources are required to develop the action plan that will lead to meaningful 

implementation, particularly with regard to the major energy consuming sectors currently not considered, 

i.e. shipping and aviation. There are also considerable barriers to be overcome, as outlined by Castalia 

(2011:58, 77). 

The barriers to installation of energy efficiency technologies include: limited access to capital 

because of reluctant financiers; limited and uncompetitive equipment supply because of the low 

uptake; incomplete information on the benefits of the technology; and agency problems where the 

investor is not the same person as the beneficiary, for example in new construction or leased 

buildings. 

Barriers to the uptake of renewable energy technologies include: not requiring the utility 

companies to consider renewable technologies in an effort to determine the least cost option for 

electricity generation; the design of the fuel charge reduces the incentive for renewables because 

the utility companies cannot securely recover the costs of investment; there is no regime for third 

party generation so that any independent power producer faces an uncertain licensing regime, is 

not guaranteed a market since the utilities are not obliged to purchase suitable renewable power 

and has no clear technical and economic framework within which to conclude a power purchase 

agreement; the permitting and planning process is excessively long given the novel nature of 

renewable energy generation projects and concessions for land are particularly hard to get, given 

that it is a premium asset in the Turks and Caicos Islands. 

Barriers for distributed technologies (i.e. small-scale installations) include: customers are not 

allowed to connect their systems or sell electricity to the grid, which potentially makes installation 

111

more costly; limited access to credit; and lack of familiarity with the technology to accept the 

viability. 


Any action on reducing energy use and emissions of greenhouse gases has to begin with a review of 

emission intensities, to ensure that action taken will lead to significant reductions. From a systems 

perspective, hundreds of minor actions will not yield anywhere near as much as one change in the major 

energy consuming sub-sectors. Aviation is thus, as outlined earlier, a key sector to focus on, followed by - in 

smaller to medium-sized islands - hotels, as these are comparably energy-intense, while car-travel is not as 

relevant. Cruise ships will be the third (in the case of TCI even the most energy intense) energy sub-sector. 

This is dependent on whether fuels are bunkered in the respective island or not. Even where this is not the 

case, however, it deserves to be noted that the tourism systems of islands receiving cruise tourists are 

depending on oil bunkered elsewhere. 

Tourism management is primarily concerned with revenue management, as the ultimate goal of any 

economic sector is to generate profits and jobs. A general critique of tourism management in this regard 

must be that it is too occupied with revenue, rather than profits as well as multiplier effects in the 

economy. This is an important distinction because profits have been declining in many tourism sub-sectors, 

such as aviation, where revenues have been increasing through continuously growing tourist volumes, 

while profits have stagnated. This is equally relevant for average length of stay, which is falling worldwide: 

to maintain bed-night numbers, destinations have consequently had to permanently increase tourist 

numbers. However, in the case of Turks and Caicos, average length of stay has actually increased from 6.46 

nights in 2002 to 7 nights in 2006, a positive trend that tourism actors should seek to maintain. 

In an attempt to look at both profits and emissions of greenhouse gases, a number of concepts have been 

developed. One of the most important overall objectives can be defined as ‘reduce the average energy 

use/emissions per tourist’. Table 5.2.1 also illustrates the situation for a number of other islands in terms of 

weighted average emissions per tourist (air travel only), as well as emissions per tourist for the main 

market. The table can serve as a benchmark for inter-island comparison. 

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Table 5.2.1: Average weighted emissions per tourist by country and main market, 2004 

Country Av weighted 

emissions per 

tourist, air travel 

(return flight; kg 

CO2) * 

International 

tourist arrivals 

(2005) 

113 

Total emissions 

air travel (1,000 

tonne CO2) 

Emissions per tourist, main 

market (return flight; kg 

CO2) and % share of total 

arrivals * 

Anguilla 750 62,084 47 672 (USA; 67%) 

Bonaire 1,302 62,550 81 803 (USA; 41%) 

Comoros 1,754 17,603 ** 

31 1,929 (France; 54%) 

Cuba 1,344 2,319,334 3,117 556 (Canada; 26%) 

Jamaica 635 1,478,663 939 635 (USA; 72%) 

Madagascar 1,829 277,422 507 2,159 (France; 52%) 

Saint Lucia 1,076 317,939 342 811 (USA; 35%) 

Samoa 658 101,807 67 824 (New Zealand; 36%) 

Seychelles 1,873 128,654 241 1,935 (France; 21%) 

Sri Lanka 1,327 549,309 729 606 (India; 21%) 

Notes:* Calculation of emissions is based on the main national markets only, using a main airport to main airport 

approach (in the USA: New York; Canada: Toronto; Australia: Brisbane); **Figures for 2004. 


A strategic approach to reduce per tourist emissions would now focus on further analysis of markets. To 

this end, an indicator is the arrival-to-emission ratio, based on a comparison of the percentage of arrivals 

from one market to the emissions caused by this market (Table 5.2.2). For instance, tourists from the USA 

account for 67% of arrivals in Anguilla in 2004, but caused only 55% of overall emissions. The resultant ratio 

is 0.82 (55% divided by 67%). The lower the ratio, the better this market is for the destination, with ratios of 

1 in favour 

of one tourist from the USA (ratio: 0.8) would thus, from a GHG emissions point of view, be beneficial. 

However, where arrivals from one market dominate, it may be relevant to discuss whether the destination 

becomes more vulnerable by increasing its dependence on this market. 

1 st market 

Emissions ratio 

2 nd market 


3 rd market 


4 th market 


Table 5.2.2: Arrivals to emissions ratios 

Anguilla Bonaire Jamaica Saint Lucia 

USA USA 

USA USA 

0.8 0.5 

0.8 0.9 

UK Netherlands - UK 

2.5 1.6 

2.0 

- - - Barbados 

0.1 

- - - Canada 

1.0 


To integrate emissions and revenue, energy intensities need to be linked to profits. An indicator in this 

regard can be eco-efficiencies, i.e. the amount of emissions caused by each visitor to generate one unit of 

revenue. This kind of analysis is generally not as yet possible for Caribbean islands due to the lack of data 

on tourist expenditure by country and tourist type (e.g. families, singles, wealthy-healthy-older-people, 

visiting friends and relatives, etc.), but Figure 5.2.1 illustrates this for the case of Amsterdam/Netherlands 

(Gössling et al., 2005). By assigning eco-efficiencies, it is possible to identify the markets that generate a

high yield for the destination, while only causing marginal emissions. For instance, in the case of 

Amsterdam, a German tourist causes emissions of 0.16 kg CO2 per € of revenue, while a visitor from 

Australia would emit 3.18 kg CO2 to create the same revenue. 

Figure 5.2.1: Eco-efficiencies of different source markets, Amsterdam 

(Source: Gössling et al. 2005) 

These indicators can serve as a basis for restructuring markets, possibly the most important single measure 

to reduce the energy dependence of the tourism system. However, further analysis is required to 

distinguish revenue/profit ratios, leakage factors/multipliers (to identify the tourist most beneficial to the 

regional/national economy) and to integrate market changes into an elasticity analysis (to focus on stable, 

price-inelastic markets) (see also Becken, 2008; Schiff and Becken, 2010). No study that integrates these 

factors has been carried out so far, but further developing such strategic tools for revenue and energy 

management would appear useful for the Caribbean. 

In Barbados, a survey carried out in February 2011 to better understand tourist perspectives on spending, 

length of stay, climate change and mitigation, yielded some interesting results. In this regard, 71% of 

respondents stated that they would have liked to stay longer, and 61% stated that they had spent less 

money than planned. It is likely that similar results could be found throughout the region, and further 

research needs to be carried out to identify how this potential can be realized: longer stays increase the 

share of money retained in the national economy, primarily in accommodation, while higher expenditure 

also contributes to increasing national tourism revenue, notably with a lower leakage factor, as spending 

for air travel will usually entail smaller profit shares and higher leakage. The Barbados study also revealed 

that 73% of respondents are willing to drive less by car, 70% stated willingness to use smaller cars, and 81% 

are positive about electric cars. With regard to A/C use, one of the major factors in energy use in hotels, 

tourists also support resource savings: 71% stated to be willing to use fans rather than air conditioning, 90% 

114

agree that switching off air conditioning when leaving the room is acceptable, and 65% agree on using air 

conditioning at a 1°C higher temperature than the set room temperature actually used during the stay. 

Further options to reduce energy use and emissions exist for businesses focusing on staff training. For 

instance, Hilton Worldwide saved energy and water costs in the order of US $16 million in the period 2005- 

2008, primarily through behavioural change of employees as a result of a training in resource-efficiency. 

These measures have to be discussed on the business level and are mostly relevant to accommodation and 

activities managers. As about 15% of a typical Caribbean hotel’s operating cost may be attributable to 

energy usage (Pentelow and Scott, 2011), management-related reductions in energy use of 20% would 

correspond to savings of 3% on the overall economic baseline. This should represent a significant incentive 

to engage in energy management. For further details on energy management see Gössling (2010). 

With regard to adaptive capacity of the utility providers themselves, both electricity companies have high 

reserve capacity to ensure that the system can withstand unplanned outages during periods of peak 

demand or in the event of failure of one or more generating units. PPC has invested in higher efficiency 

generation plant and is actively addressing the efficiency of its fuel supply by increasing its fuel storage 

capacity with new infrastructure. This is the most immediate action that can be taken to improve fuel 

supply since it can reduce frequency of shipments, decrease costs, and increase an isolated system‘s power 

reliability (Castalia, 2011). The consultants note that efficient handling of the planning and permitting 

process from public authorities can play a key role in ensuring this happens swiftly and effectively (see 

barriers to implementation in Section 5.2.1). 

Following the damage to distribution infrastructure experienced during Hurricane Ike in 2008, both 

companies made efforts to reduce their vulnerability to future events by upgrading the replaced 

infrastructure. TCU were to upgrade their poles, continue the practice of burying the pole by 10% of its 

length plus 2ft and go underground where finance permitted. PPC were to upgrade the poles (some were 

over 20 years old), upgrade conductors and ensure that the depth of pole embedment was adequate. It 

should be noted that PPC had managed to keep 25% of their capacity going throughout the storm because 

of underground feeders in some parts of Providenciales (ECLAC, 2008). 


The potential for saving energy through technological innovation has been documented for a growing 

number of case studies. For instance, luxury resort chain Evason Phuket & Six Senses Spa, Thailand, reports 

payback times of between 6 months and ten years for measures saving hundreds of thousands of Euros per 

year. Examples of the economics of resource-savings from the Caribbean include five case studies in 

Jamaica (Meade and Pringle, 2001). The results from this study are summarised in Table 5.2.3. 

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Table 5.2.3: Jamaican case studies for resource savings 

Property 

Sandals Negril 

Couples Ocho 

Rios 

Swept Away Negril Cabins Sea Splash 

Number of 

rooms 

215 172 134 80 15 

Initial 

$68,000 $50,000 

$44,000 $34,670 $12,259 

investment 

($20,000 in 

equipment, 

$30,000 in 

consulting fees) 

Water saved (m 3 ) 45,000 31,000 95,000 11,400 7,600 

Electricity saved 

(MWh) 

444 174 436 145 154 

Fuel saved (l) 100,000 (diesel) 172,000 (LPG) 

325,000 (diesel) 

Financial savings $261,000 $134,000 $294,000 $46,000 over 2.75 $46,000 since 

years. 

$5,000 on laundry 

July 1998 

chemicals 

August 1998 

since 

Return on 190% over 2 200% over 16 675% over 19 48% 151% over 2.5 

investment years 

months 

months 

years 

Payback period 10 months 6 months 4 months 

(Source: Meade and Pringle, 2001) 

It is beyond the scope of this report to list all technical measures to reduce energy use, and readers are 

referred to Gössling (2010) for further guidance: case studies provided in this book indicate technologybased 

energy savings potentials of up to 90% for accommodation. 

Often, it is also economically feasible to replace conventional, fossil-fuel based energy systems with 

renewable ones, with payback times of 3-7 years (e.g. Dalton et al., 2009). An example study in the 

Caribbean is provided by Bishop and Amaratunga (2008). This study provides evidence on the economic 

suitability of technological innovation to generate renewable energy in Barbados. Bishop and Amaratunga 

(2008) propose a 10MW wind energy scheme based on micro wind turbines of both horizontal and vertical 

axis configurations, and at costs as low as BDS $0.19 per kWh. The scheme would also lead to savings of 

6,000-23,000 t CO2 and avoided fuel costs of BDS $1.5–5.3 million. The authors highlight that small wind 

turbines can be competitive with conventional wind farms. 

The Castalia review of the energy sector in Turks and Caicos includes an assessment of the energy efficiency 

and renewable energy technologies that are both economically and commercially viable. They find that 

almost all of the efficiency technologies reviewed are economically viable, except efficient retail 

refrigerators and LED street lighting (Castalia, 2011). Figure 5.2.2 summarises the findings graphically: the 

bars indicate the cost required by each technology to save one kWh and are compared with the cost of 

generating that kWh for a given fuel cost assumption (solid lines). Technologies that save electricity for less 

than the cost to generate it are considered economically viable. For customers, the technology is viable if 

the saved electricity costs less than what they would have paid to use it. These technologies are 

commercially viable. 

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Note: Savings costs of energy efficiency measures (US $/kWh) are based on a 10% discount rate. Generation costs and 

tariffs are based on diesel prices of US $3/gallon. 

Figure 5.2.2: Viability of energy efficiency technologies in Turks and Caicos 


Based on its review of the financial viability of energy-efficiency, Castalia (2011: 53-54) concludes that: all 

lighting technologies for residential, commercial and industrial customers are viable; magnetic induction 

lights are a viable option for street lighting; power monitors are a strong awareness tool for saving 

electricity through behavioural change (savings of 10%); all mechanical technologies, such as premium 

efficiency motors, variable frequency drives and efficient chillers are viable, particularly for industrial 

customers and hotels; all air conditioning technologies are highly viable, especially window systems for 

residential use; LCD computer monitors are viable, but already have high uptake; refrigeration technologies 

can save customers money, but only residential ones are economically viable. 

The assessment of renewable energy technologies that are economically viable found five that may be 

economically viable for both utilities. These are: landfill gas to energy on a large scale, operated 

commercially (US $0.08 per kWh); solar water heaters on a small and commercial scale for homes and 

businesses (US $0.12 and US $0.13 per kWh, respectively); wind (‘Class 1’ and lowerable/tiltable turbines), 

on a large scale operated commercially (US $0.12 and US $0.21 per kWh, respectively); waste to energy on 

a large scale operated commercially (US $0.12 per kWh 4 ); and seawater air-conditioning, on a large scale 

operated commercially (US $0.23 per kWh) (Castalia, 2011). 

One additional technology would also be economically viable in TCU‘s service area. That is concentrated 

solar power (parabolic trough), on a large scale operated commercially (US $0.26 per kWh), although if TCU 

were to switch from high-speed diesel plants to higher-efficiency medium speed diesel plants, the 

assessment would be similar to the one for PPC. Solar PV on a commercial and small scale and distributed 

wind turbines (10 kW) are commercially but not economically viable. Overall, the potential to use 

renewable energy in the islands is promising, and should be pursued on economic grounds alone. 

4 This cost is based on TCI-specific data, but looks low compared to similar plants and therefore warrants further investigation 

(Castalia, 2011). 

117

As outlined, managers will usually be interested in any investment that has pay-back times as short as 5-7 

years, while longer times are not favourable. While this would support investments into any technology 

with payback times of up to seven years, it means that alternative forms of financing are needed for some 

of the more expensive renewable energy technologies with longer payback periods. Most developing 

countries can look to use the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) as an instrument to finance emission 

reductions. The CDM is one of the flexible instruments of the Kyoto Protocol with two objectives: 

1. to assist parties not included in Annex I in achieving sustainable development and in contributing to 

the ultimate objective of the convention of cost-efficient emission reductions; 

2. to assist parties included in Annex I in achieving compliance with their quantified emission 

limitation and reduction commitments. 

The CDM is the most important framework for the supply of carbon credits from emission reduction 

projects, such as electricity generation from biomass, renewable energy projects, or capture of CH4, which 

can be sold in the regulatory or the voluntary carbon markets. As such, it is a novel instrument to 

restructure islands towards low-carbon economies. As an Overseas Territory of the United Kingdom, Turks 

and Caicos would be classified as an Annex I country and therefore ineligible to act as a host country for 

CDM. However, as indicated in Castalia (2011), there are other sources of international funding available. In 

particular the UK Government has carbon abatement targets, and pays money to comply with them; the 

Government of TCI should work with the UK Government to identify measures through which TCI can 

reduce carbon emissions and obtain funding. This would be in accordance with the commitments made in 

the 2001 Environment Charter (OTEP, n.d.). 

Further funds can be derived through voluntary payments by tourists. For instance, Dalton et al. (2008) 

found that 49% of Australian tourists were willing to pay extra for renewable energy systems, out of which 

92% were willing to pay a premium corresponding to 1–5% above their usual costs. In another study, 

Gössling and Schumacher (2010) found that 38.5% of a sample of international tourists in the Seychelles 

expressed willingness to pay for carbon-neutrality of their accommodation, out of which 48% stated they 

would be willing to pay a premium of at least €5 per night. While these values are not representative, they 

nevertheless indicate that there is considerable potential to involve tourists emotionally and financially in 

strategies to implement renewable energy schemes. The Turks and Caicos Islands already have an 

Accommodation Tax with 1% earmarked for environmental projects (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). This 

could potentially be expanded to include investments in renewable and energy efficiency technologies. 

5.2.4. Summary 

The Turks and Caicos Islands are vulnerable to rising oil prices and global climate policy, particularly with a 

view to their rapidly growing tourism system. However, there are various tools that can be employed to 

reduce energy use in the country, possibly in the order of an estimated 20% within two years, though 

attention has to be paid to increasing tourist arrival numbers, which can outweigh achievements in 

efficiency gains. Adaptation should focus on policy, management and technology. 

Policy, including regulation, taxation and incentives, is important to increase pressure on 

stakeholders to engage with energy management – this is an area that is generally seen as less 

relevant and efforts to engage significant stakeholder numbers will demand strong policy 

environments, as outlined in the Energy Conservation Policy and Implementation Strategy for the 

Turks and Caicos Islands. 

118

Vast options exist to reduce energy demand through carbon management. In particular, this 

includes a rethinking of markets based on their eco-efficiency, this can potentially lead to 

increasing turnover and declining energy costs, while also bringing greater attention to the 

diversification of markets. Carbon management also means to address average length of stay, and 

measures to stimulate spending: evidence indicates that there is considerable scope to increase 

both. 

The introduction of low-carbon technology can both reduce energy demands (energy-efficiencies) 

and the use of fossil fuels, which can be replaced by renewable energies. Often, restructuring 

existing energy systems can be cost-effective, and even lead to savings. The Energy Conservation 

Policy and Implementation Strategy for the Turks and Caicos Islands has laid the groundwork for 

initiatives in this area. 

Finally, international funding and voluntary payments for carbon offsetting may be used as means 

to reduce energy use, and to increase the share of renewable energy in national energy mixes. 

119


5.3.1. Policy 

While there is a Plan for Managing the Marine Fisheries of The Turks and Caicos Islands, there is no clear 

policy for agricultural development. However, the action plan for climate change adaptation as outlined in 

the Turks and Caicos Islands Climate Change Green Paper (2011) includes the following measures: 

Promoting traditional land management practices that conserve soil fertility and biodiversity and 

protect ecosystem functions and processes 

Practicing aggressive management of invasive species that threaten agricultural production 

Restoration of degraded areas 

Investment in new technology such as hydroponics and biotechnology/biosafety. 

Additionally, five thousand acres of land are to be made available to TCI farmers as part of a package of 

measures to boost local agriculture, the Government farm in North Caicos is to benefit from a US $150,000 

cash injection to buy new equipment and modernise the 140-acre facility, and at least 5,000 acres of crown 

land and associated fresh water lenses are to be zoned and restricted for agricultural use in North Caicos 

and made available to qualifying new and existing farmers. 


The Worden and Worden (2010) report on Recommendations for Agricultural Development in the Turks 

and Caicos Islands suggests that agricultural productivity can be significantly improved with the use of new 

agro-technology. However, there is evidence to suggest that at least one farm, Island Fresh Produce, is 

operating a hydroponic farm in Providenciales with some measure of success. This producer supplies fresh 

food items to local hotels, restaurants and supermarkets on Provo. 

5.3.3. Farmers’ Adaptation - Initiatives and Actions 

The Turks and Caicos Farmers and Community Association is actively pleading the case for an expanded 

agriculture sector and have petitioned the Governor and advisory council for action. The association is 

currently lobbying for training and capacity building in agriculture to facilitate increased production on the 

land that is being made available for farming. 

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5.4.1. Policy 

The Public and Environmental Health Ordinance is the main legislation that governs health care through 

maintenance of environmental quality which includes water resources, the land and the air, housing quality 

and food safety. The Water and Sewer Ordinance addresses sewerage disposal but the Government of 

Turks and Caicos (2003) recommended that penalties be implemented to reduce pollution of water bodies 

that target the individual, businesses and international shipping agencies. It also highlighted the need for 

more explicit regulations to deal with sewage disposal. The Strategic Health Plan 2006-2010 in Turks and 

Caicos Islands was one of seven key documents devised to develop the socio-economic framework of the 

government. The Strategy for Action to Implement the Environment Charter of the Turks and Caicos, in 

addressing areas of environmental concern also addressed some issues related to climate change and 

variability. These included invasive species and port environmental security, mosquito control, 

establishment of policies to address poverty and unemployment and addressing illegal immigration and 

substandard housing (Government of Turks and Caicos Islands, 2003). 

The National Socio-economic Development Framework (NSEDF) 2008-2017 is the most current document 

mapping the development of social concerns in the territory. The expenditure for the period 2008 to 2017 

for social services has been estimated at US $1,210,176,484 or 60.23% of the programme budget which 

includes other areas such as infrastructure, information and communication technology, national security 

and environmental management. For health programmes specifically, the estimated budget is 67% of the 

social services allocation, or 40% of the entire NSEDF budget (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2008). These 

expected investments do not include expenditure related upgrading the health care system and the 

provision of affordable housing. The framework makes provisions for the development of an Integrated 

Health Information System with an estimated cost of US $872,000 and for Health Institutional Capacity 

Building at a cost of US $3,774,300. It also outlines other projects under the health sector which include 

(Kairi Consultants Limited, 2008): 

“Establishment of an effective system for rapid airlift of patients to secondary and tertiary health 

care facilities 

Preparation of Health Disaster Policy and Management Plans 

Modification of anti-poverty strategies with the findings of the NALC and socio-economic conditions 

within the country”. 

Under other subsections other provisions were made, for example Flood Alleviation and Drainage 

Improvement programme which is a project under Infrastructural Projects and would help alleviate 

flooding and as a result reduce the risk of vector borne diseases and diseases likely to be spread by rodents. 

The Integrated Sustainable Waste Management System (ISWMS) and IWCM are also important in disease 

prevention and control. Finally, the NSEDF identified climate change as a priority area and addressed the 

need for a Climate Change Adaptation Policy and Action Plan for the Turks and Caicos Islands which was 

expected to commence in 2008, but it did not give a sectoral breakdown of the intended objectives of this 

policy and action plan (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2008). 

In terms of initiatives specifically addressing climate change and the health sector, the Turks and Caicos 

Islands Climate Change Green Paper identified a number of adaption strategies relevant to the health 

sector which are as follows: 

121

“Strengthening health systems to cope with the increased health threats posed by climate change, 

including emergencies related to extreme weather events and storm surge; 

Advocacy and awareness about diseases within the Health sector and the general public; 

Partnership with other agencies and other sectors at local, national, regional and international 

levels to ensure that health protection and health promotion are central to climate change 

adaptation and mitigation policies; 

Promote preventative health care and the collection and analysis of scientific data relating to 

incidence of disease.” 

(Climate Change Committee, 2011b) 

Following the green paper, the draft Climate Change Policy was developed with developed these areas as 

well as 

“Educate the public about best practices to deal with vector and water borne diseases emphasizing 

that prevention is better than cure; 

Improve preventative health care facilities and services as well as build the human resource 

capacity at these facilities; 

Develop emergency response procedures that can handle pandemics and epidemics, and increases 

in vector and water-borne diseases.” 

(Climate Change Committee, 2011a) 

The recent impacts of the 2008 hurricane season and the global economic recession have all contributed to 

the weakening of the economy (RLB, 2010). The decline in budget spending allocated to the health sector 

after 2008 was expected to contract due to “high cost of overseas treatment, a fall in user fees and higher 

contingent spending to return service to normal” (ECLAC, 2008). The government spending on health care 

is significant; it is estimated to be 22% of the GDP for 2008 (WHO-AIMS, 2009) and previous to 2004 

allocation to the Ministry of Health was estimated to be 18% of the territory’s expenditure (DEPS, 2004). 

Expenditure for treatment abroad is also substantial due to the limited services in the territory (WHO-AIMS, 

2009). Directly related to the health care sector, these challenges along with a possible increase in diseases 

as well as increasing cost of water, sewerage and sanitation, may put added stress on the health care 

system, resulting in a rise in the overall cost of health care (Climate Change Committee, 2011b). 

As mentioned above, the Tropical Storm Hanna and Hurricane Ike caused significant damage to the health 

sector in 2008 amounting to US $29.7 million, 11% was due to damages and 89% due to losses (ECLAC, 

2008). Table 5.4.1 below gives a breakdown of the total damages and losses. Overseas treatment 

particularly for persons requiring dialysis and other emergency needs, accounted for the greatest 

expenditure as the Grand Turk Hospital and other important institutions in the health care network 

suffered damages during Hurricane Ike (ECLAC, 2008). There is therefore a need to cater for these 

vulnerabilities. One initiative that addresses this and thus represents and adaptation of the health sector to 

current challenges was the construction of two new hospitals in the territory which are discussed in the 

following subsection. 

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Table 5.4.1: Summary effects on the health sector from Hurricane Ike and Storm Hanna in the Turks and Caicos 

Islands (US $) 

TOTAL EFFECT $29,712,660.00 

Total Damage $3,274,731.00 

iv. Damage to Health Facilities $3,193,000.00 

v. Damage to equipment and furnishings $81,731.00 

vi. Imported component $2,947,257.90 

Total Losses $26,437,929.00 

x. Environmental health including clearing of debris and public 

education 

$944,620.00 

xi. Addition cost of generation electricity $131,820.00 

xii. Loss due to transfer of patients to other facilities for care $25,000,000.00 

xiii. Losses due to forgone income $25,500.00 

xiv. Losses to the establishment of temporary clinics $130,000.00 

xv. Additional cost to staff services $101,580.00 

xvi. Additional cost of communications $2,000.00 

xvii. Additional cost for relocation of families in need $56,559.00 

xviii. Lost due to additional cost of water $45,850.00 

(Source: Taken from ECLAC, 2008) 


The Ministry of Health, which is part of the Ministry of Finance, Health and National Insurance (MFHNI) is 

responsible for provision of health care in the Turks and Caicos Islands. Three of the departments most 

relevant in strengthening the ability of the country to adapt to climate change are the Primary Health 

Department, the Department of Environmental Health and the Medical Department. Other important 

departments in health protection include the Department of Economic Planning and Statistics which 

records statistics use in policy decision making and for suitable programmes for disease prevention, the 

Water Undertaking Department which is important in providing water for the territory and the Department 

of Labour and the Department of Labour Immigration which have important roles in immigrants and illegal 

immigrant issues. 

The main hospital in the Turks and Caicos Islands was the 30-bed Grand Turk Hospital that served the needs 

not only Grand Turk but other islands in the territory (ECLAC, 2008). In 2008, two new general public 

hospital facilities, capable of providing primary and secondary health care were contracted to the 

InterHealth Canada (ICL) at a cost of $124 million using a Private Finance Initiative (PFI). Of this figure, $65 

million was allocated to construction of the facilities built to withstand Category 5 hurricanes and the 

remainder used to purchase equipment, staffing and other operational expenses (Government Information 

Services, 2011). These hospitals, completed and opened in 2010, are located in Grand Turk (10-bed facility) 

and in Providenciales (20-bed facility) and were expected to reduce the need and cost associated with 

overseas treatment (ECLAC, 2008). Further expansion of these facilities into a 20-bed and 40-bed facilities is 

catered for within the 25 year contract agreement (InterHealth Canada, 2008). 

These facilities are largely staffed by British professionals from doctors and nurses to paramedics and 

management personnel (House of Lords, 2011). This consists of a mixture of government employed 

professionals as well as private sector professions who work in just over 20 health care facilities across the 

territory (WHO-AIMS, 2009). The number of inhabitants per physician (public sector only), was 1,857 in 

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2003, 1,813 in 2004 and 1,632 in 2005 (ECLAC, 2010). In 2007, aside from the public hospital facilities which 

were part of the health care network included four private clinics, seven primary health medical centres 

and seven family planning clinics (ECLAC, 2008). The hospitals per 1,000 inhabitants in the territory was 2.3 

in 2000 and dropped incrementally each year to 1.3 beds per 1,000 inhabitants in 2006 (ECLAC, 2010). 

Other relevant facilities in the health care sector include two public laboratories located in the two main 

hospitals, one in a private hospital in Providenciales and the National Epidemiology and Research Unit 

(PAHO, 2007). 

In the case of an emergency such as during a natural disaster there are standby generators. However, there 

are fewer generators than essential facilities which require them and this can put hospitals in a vulnerable 

position in the event of an emergency (ECLAC, 2008). This is an area where the adaptive capacity of the 

health sector in cases of emergency can be strengthened. Over a third of imports to the island are geared 

towards fuel which is first imported to Providenciales and Grand Turk and then further distributed to other 

islands and cays in the territory. In the event of extreme weather conditions, this presents a problem of 

meeting the demand for these islands and cays that would depend on their fuel supply from the main 

islands (ECLAC, 2008). Again, logistics such as this example are important in health protection. 

One major issue that impacts on the health care sector is that incurred from immigrants from neighbouring 

countries, such as Haiti and the Dominican Republic. While many persons legally contribute to the labour 

force, they often consist of illegal immigrants, which place a great burden on social services of the island 

(Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). Diseases are often associated with the illegal immigrant population. As 

the HEU, Centre for Health Economics (2009) notes, “Haitians flow into small towns and villages, some 

living in bushes and squalor, to escape the life of deprivation in their home country. These immigrants place 

heavy demands on the health and other social services of the country”. The TCI Poverty Assessment noted 

that the poor living conditions associated with these immigrants is a threat to the quality of the tourism 

product as it posed a risk to increased incidence of communicable diseases in communities where they 

exist, most notably in Providenciales (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). Persons with illegal immigrant 

status also do not seek health care assistance to avoid being deported by authorities (PAHO, 2007) which 

can contribute to the spread of communicable diseases and make them harder to contain. 

Over 63.3% of the population sought health care from the public sector according the Poverty Assessment 

and national census of 2001 and the majority of persons were either satisfied or very satisfied with the 

health services offered (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). While the health care statistics of the Turks and 

Caicos Islands mirror a more developed country with few reported cases of communicable diseases, there 

are a number of basic issues that challenge the ability of the health care system to cope with diseases that 

have climate change signals. As such, infectious disease surveillance and disease outbreak management 

have been identified as priority needs after Hurricane Irene Hit in August 2011 (PAHO, 2011). The initial 

assessment also suggested psychological support for those most affected. Infectious disease surveillance 

was also employed post Hurricane Ike and Tropical Storm Hanna as well as an increase in health care 

professionals (thirteen professionals most notably in the areas of vector control management, water 

sanitation, public health inspection, mental health and public health nursing) from Ministries of other 

Caribbean territories (PAHO, 2008). The territory also engages in integrated vector control at the 

community level (Medlock et al., 2010) which is important in the controlling the spread of the vector borne 

diseases throughout the year. 

Vaccinations are also an important adaptive measure that has been employed by the health sector in the 

territory to address the threat of certain diseases. For example for diphtheria, the vaccination coverage was 

95% in 2005 (PAHO, 2007) and continued vaccination coverage can work to protect the population from 

diphtheria threats especially from immigrant populations with poorer environmental conditions and 

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weaker social infrastructure. Continued surveillance and vaccination will assist in protection of the country 

against any threat arising from natural disasters. A preventative vaccine was also first purchased for 

seasonal influenza in 2005 (PAHO, 2007) and utilised in subsequent outbreaks in the territory. Other 

activities have taken place to prepare for influenza outbreaks. In 2009, a workshop was conducted to 

develop a national programme to strengthen the Turks and Caicos Islands’ capacity to effectively and 

efficiently respond any resurgence of influenza in the territory (Government Information Services, 2009). 

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Adaptation requires “adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic 

stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities” (IPCC, 2007). The 

adaptive capacity of ecosystems then is the property of a system to adjust its characteristics or behaviour, 

in order to expand its coping range under existing climate variability, or future climate conditions (Brooks & 

Adger, 2004). Despite global action to reduce greenhouse gases, climate change impacts on biodiversity are 

unavoidable due to climate inertia. Natural ecosystems have long demonstrated the ability to adapt to 

changes in their physical environment. The rate at which climatic change occurs may exceed the rate at 

which ecosystems can adapt. Furthermore, natural environments, which are already stressed by human 

activities, have compromised ability to cope with and to adapt to climate change. This adaptive capacity 

assessment thus considers the country’s ability to conserve its biodiversity through managing sustainable 

resource use and the capacity to implement strategies to protect its natural environment. 

Many small island states generally have low adaptive capacity for some of the same reasons that they tend 

to be highly vulnerable to climate change, i.e. small physical size, limited access to capital and technology, 

shortage of human and financial resources (Mimura, et al., 2007). The ability of ecosystems to adjust to 

projected climatic changes depends not only on their inherent resilience but also on the ability of resource 

users to make required adjustments. By addressing shortcomings in the above indicators adaptive capacity 

can be built. 

Six principles for adaptation have been identified by Natural England, the UK government’s advisor on the 

natural environment. Many elements of these principles are neither new nor climate-change specific and so 

may be applied within the Caribbean context. The principles are as follows (not in order of priority): 

Table 5.5.1: Biodiversity: Six principles for climate change adaptation 

Conserve existing biodiversity 

Reduce sources of harm not linked to climate 

Develop ecologically resilient and varied landscapes 

Establish ecological networks through habitat protection, restoration and 

creation 

Make sound decisions based on analysis 

Integrate adaptation and mitigation measures into conservation management, 

planning and practice 

5.5.1. Policy 

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(Source: Hopkins et al., 2007) 

Climate change adaptation strategies for biodiversity can either support or violate principles of equity, 

cultural norms and sustainable development depending on the policies that guide these actions. The 

capacity of countries to implement climate change adaptation strategies will therefore be enhanced by 

polices that take advantage of linkages between socio-economic and environmental sectors. The 

Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands recognises the importance of a healthy environment and has 

also begun to consider the threat that climate change poses to the sustainable use of its biodiversity. 

Increasing recognition of the importance of preserving environmental health, increased interface with 

global environmental institutions and the demands of financial and donor institutions have resulted in 

improved participation of Caribbean countries in Multi-lateral Environmental Agreements (MEA). To this

end the Turks and Caicos Islands are included in the UK's ratification of the following international 

environmental agreements: 

Convention concerning the Protection of the World Cultural and Natural Heritage (World 

Heritage Convention) 

Convention on Wetlands of International Importance especially as Waterfowl Habitat (Ramsar 

Convention) 

Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine Environment of the Wider 

Caribbean Region (Cartagena Convention) 

Protocol on Specially Protected Areas and Wildlife 

Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES) 

Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (Bonn Convention) 

International Convention on the Regulation of Whaling 

The Turks and Caicos’ Charter, signed in 2001, includes guiding principles and a set of mutual commitments 

between the UK Government and the Turks and Caicos Government to integrate environmental 

conservation into all sectors of policy planning and implementation. TCI’s first commitment was to develop 

a detailed strategy for action to implement the principles of the Charter, and the first commitment of the 

UK Government is to help build capacity to support integrated environmental management. TCI has led the 

way being the first UKOT to adopt a full Strategy for Action (OTEP, 2001). 

Several policies under the DECR focus on the marine and coastal environment and promote an integrated 

approach to resource management. Scrublands comprise the majority of terrestrial vegetation and are 

considered as an extension of the coastal ecosystem thus management of the bushes is integrated into the 

coastal management framework. Tourism development plans and management initiatives are focused on 

beach and coastal areas therefore conservation and management of the scrub vegetation are integrated in 

the beach/coastal management plan. The TCI Green Paper on Climate Change recommends that the 

Government take a holistic approach to climate change adaptation through an Integrated Coastal Zone 

Management Strategy (ICZM) to reduce pollutants, promote alternative sources of construction material 

and avoid boat damage. A new offshore sand mining policy became effective as of November 1, 2010 in 

order to regulate resource extraction and solve the problem that onshore mining had caused to some 

beaches. Recommendations coming out of the Green Paper include the maintenance and restoration of 

mangroves, upland wetlands and forests, and education of fisherfolk about best practices and the need to 

enhance resilience of coral reefs for ensuring their livelihood, transplanting coral reefs from resilient 

ecological zones 


Successful implementation of international and national policies depends on related institutional 

arrangement. A nation’s adaptive capacity is greater if the roles and responsibilities for implementation of 

adaptation strategies are well delineated by central governments and are clearly understood at national, 

regional, and local levels (Burton, 1996). The management of biodiversity and all other natural resources, 

including fisheries, is the responsibility of the Ministry of Natural Resources. Under this Ministry, the DECR 

has been designated to ensure sustainable utilization of the natural resources of TCI, and to protect and 

promote biodiversity and economic prosperity through policy-making; the development of related 

legislation, strategies and plans for a sustainable fishing industry and protected areas system. The DECR has 

two divisions: The Fisheries Division which is responsible for the management and regulation of fisheries 

127

and the Protected Area Division, also known as the National Parks Division, which is responsible for the 

overall management and protection of National Parks, Reserves, Sanctuaries and Historic Sites. 

Strong interagency collaboration is required to effectively manage the islands using the multidisciplinary 

approach adopted by the Government. As such, the Departments of Planning and Environmental Health 

work along with the DECR to manage coastal resources. Although there is no formal integration of these 

Departments they routinely work together, particularly when addressing large-scale developments. 

Another major constituent in the management of Protected Areas is that of the Turks & Caicos National 

Trust, a non-governmental organization that conservation issues. Co-management of resources is 

encouraged through public consultation and collaboration with formally established community groups 

such as the Hotel and Restaurant Association and the Water Sports Association. These groups assist DECR 

with dive mooring installation and maintenance, research initiatives and educational programmes. 

Despite these initiatives the DECR is still constrained by a limited staff and finances. Only six enforcement 

officers are available to patrol the waters around the entire Caicos Banks from Providenciales to French Cay 

(Green, 2011). The Fisheries Division and Protected Area Division share personnel so that in some cases 

Fisheries Officers may act as Park Wardens and Park Wardens may act as Fisheries Officers. The officers are 

too few in number to effectively enforce regulations over marine areas, which account for more than 90% 

of TCI’s territorial extent. Furthermore the DECR’s current budget for staff has been reduced by 27% from 

2008-09 levels, and money for repairing and operating boats has been cut even more limiting their capacity 

to monitor activities and enforce regulations within MPAs (Green, 2011a). Despite the shortage in human 

and financial resources, the DECR remains committed to the protection of TCI’s fragile environment. 

Protected areas 

Strengthening protected area networks is one way of adopting an ecosystem-based approach to 

adaptation, i.e. one that integrates the use of biodiversity and ecosystem services into an overall strategy 

to help people adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change (A. Colls & Ikkala, 2009). Such strategies are 

recognized as being more effective in biodiversity conservation than a species based approached and at the 

same time promotes sustainable use of natural resources so that people are not denied the use of 

resources but rather, are placed in a position to better cope with climate change. In 1992 the Government 

set aside 33 protected areas, which fall into four categories: national parks, nature reserves, sanctuaries 

and areas of historical interest. There are now 34 Protected Areas (11 National Parks, 11 Nature Reserves, 6 

Historical Sites, 4 Sanctuaries, and 1 Fisheries Reserve), with 19 having marine or coral reef resources. The 

management of these systems is financed by the Conservation Fund, which was legally established in 1998. 

This self-financing revenue system is reserved for environmental management programmes and is financed 

by a 1% share of the Accommodation Tax (Tietze, Haughton, & Siar, 2006). 

Less than 10% of the coral reefs are protected within MPAs (Jones, et al., 2004) and those MPAs outside of 

Providenciales are not actively managed because of a lack of park wardens. One of the adaptation 

strategies of the TCI Green Paper on Climate Change is to enhance the resilience of coral reefs through the 

creation of MPAs in areas of upwelling or local cold-water currents that may reduce their vulnerability to 

increased SST and bleaching. A fish sanctuaries and MPA management mechanism founded on a 

partnership between the public and private sectors and the community could provide additional support 

for such an adaptation strategy and help to ensure its ecological and financial sustainability. 

128


A high degree of access to technology at various levels (i.e. from local to national) and in all sectors may 

potentially play a significant role in biodiversity adaptation to climate change (Burton, 1996). The 

Government of TCI has embraced the use of modern technology in its conservation efforts. A habitat 

mapping exercise has taken place recently under the aegis of the Department of Environment and Coastal 

Resources that shows the diversity of ecosystems that exist in the islands. No other country in the 

Caribbean Region has attempted the monumental task of preparing a standardized national vegetation 

classification and detailed, country-wide habitat mapping geodatabase at such a detailed scale. This 

landmark study is anticipated to help inform decision-making so that environmental health is preserved 

during the pursuit of economic advancements (SWA Ltd., Blue Dolphin Research and Consulting Inc., EDSA, 

2010). 

Funded by the UK Government and DECR’s Conservation Fund, Biorock coral reef restoration projects were 

initiated in waters around Grand Turk, at Oasis (October 2006) and at Governor’s Beach (November 2007). 

These projects have regenerated corals and fish populations in areas of barren sand or bedrock and are 

now attractive to snorkelers. Despite challenges in the initial stages and some impacts from extreme 

events, high coral survival and low structural damage after hurricanes indicate that Biorock reef restoration 

can be effective in building reef resilience in TCI. Reefs balls have also been used to enhance the marine 

environment of Grand Turks. Subsequent to Hurricane Ike, the Government emphasized that technical 

support was needed in assessing impacts of the cyclone on fish stocks and fisheries livelihoods (UNEP, 

2008). 

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Based on the above evaluation, actions need to be taken to minimize infrastructure losses in vulnerable 

areas of Turks and Caicos. The current and projected vulnerabilities of the tourism sector to SLR, including 

coastal inundation and increased beach erosion, will result in economic losses for the Turks and Caicos 

Islands and its people. Adaptations to minimize vulnerabilities in the Turks and Caicos Islands will require 

revisions to development plans and investment decisions. These considerations must be based on the best 

available information regarding the specific coastal infrastructure and ecosystem resources along the coast, 

in addition to the resulting economic and non-market impacts. 

Given the historical damage caused by event driven coastal erosion, as well as slow-onset SLR, the need to 

design and implement better strategies for mitigating their impacts is becoming apparent. There are a 

number of solutions that can be used to tackle beach erosion. Unfortunately, most of the common 

solutions such as beach replenishment and groynes are only temporary and their cost makes them 

unaffordable (Daniel, 2001). There are three main types of adaptation policies that can be implemented to 

reduce the vulnerability of the tourism sector in the Turks and Caicos Islands to SLR and improve the 

adaptive capacity of the country: (1) Hard engineering defences and (2) soft engineering defences, which 

both aim to protect existing infrastructure and the land on which the infrastructure is built, as well as (3) 

retreat policies, which aim to establish setbacks and thereby move people and/or infrastructure away from 

risk. A summary of examples for each of the three types of adaptation polices are provided in Table 5.6.1, 

along with a summary of select advantages and disadvantages of each. Adaption options discussed in this 

report should be implemented in the framework of Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM) and all 

decisions need to take into account the broad range of stakeholders involved in decision-making in the 

coastal zone. Adaptations should benefit coastlines in light of both climate and non-climate stresses and 

adaptations need be promoted as a process towards ICZM rather than an endpoint (Linham & Nicholls, 

2010). 

130

Table 5.6.1: Summary of adaptation policies to reduce the vulnerability of Turks and Caicos to SLR and SLR-induced 

beach erosion 

Protection Type Advantages 

Hard Engineering Defences 

Disadvantages 

Dikes, levees, 

- Prevents inundation - Aesthetically unpleasing 

1, 2 

embankments - Can be breeched if improperly designed 

- Can create vulnerabilities in other locations (e.g. 

further erosion downward from the dikes) 

- Expensive 

- Requires ongoing maintenance 

3, 4 

Groynes - Prevents erosion 

- Aesthetically unpleasing 

- Can increase erosion in other locations (e.g. stops 

long shore drift and traps sand) 

- Expensive 

Revetments 3, 4 - Prevents inundation - Aesthetically unpleasing 

- Less unwanted erosion - Expensive 

than seawalls or levees - Requires ongoing maintenance and/or replacement 

(temporary) 

Seawalls 3, 5 - Prevents inundation - Aesthetically unpleasing 

- Good for densely 

- Can be breeched if improperly designed 

developed areas that - Can create vulnerabilities in other locations (e.g. 

cannot retreat 

further erosion adjacent from seawalls, reflect waves 

causing turbulence and undercutting) 

- Expensive 

- Requires ongoing maintenance 

- Scouring at the base of the seawall can cause beach 

loss in front of the wall 

Structure Redesign 

- Less environmentally - May be technologically unfeasible and expensive for 

(e.g. elevate buildings, damaging compared to large larger buildings and resorts 

6, 7 

enforce foundations) scale defences 

- Only protects the individual structure (not 

- Can be completed 

independently of centralized 

management plans 

surrounding infrastructures such as roads) 

Soft Engineering Defences 

Beach nourishment and - Enhances slope stability - Can ruin visitor experience while nourishment is 

replanting of coastal - Reduces erosion 

occurring (e.g. restrict beach access) 

2, 3, 8 

vegetation - Preserves natural beach - Can lead to conflict between resorts 

aesthetics 

- Differential grain size causing differing rates of erosion 

- Provides protection for (e.g. new sand vs. natural sand) 

structures behind beach - Difficult to maintain (e.g. nourishment needs to be 

- Improves biodiversity and repeated/replenished, unsuccessful plantings) 

ecological health 

- Will not work on open coastlines (i.e. requires 

locations where vegetation already exists) 

Replant, restructure and - Enhances slope stability - Conflict among resort managers (e.g. ‘sand wars’) 

3, 8 

reshape sand dunes - Reduces erosion 

- Temporary (waves will continually move sand) 

Relocate settlements and 

2, 9, 

relevant infrastructure 

10, 11, 12 

Retreat Policies 

- Guaranteed to reduce SLR 

vulnerability 

- Less environmental damage 

to coastline if no 

development takes place 

- Retains aesthetic value 

131 

- Economic costs (e.g. relocation, compensation) 

- Social concerns (e.g. property rights, land use, loss of 

heritage, displacement) 

- Coordination of implementation is challenging (e.g. 

timing of relocation is problematic) 

- Concerns with abandoned buildings 

Sources: 1 (Silvester & Hsu, 1993) 2 (Nicholls & Mimura, 1998) 3 (French, 2001) 4 (El Raey, Dewidar, & El Hattab, 1999) 

5 (Krauss & McDougal, 1996) 6 (Boateng, 2008) 7 (Lasco, Cruz, Pulhin, & Pulhin, 2006) 8 (Hamm, Capobiancob, Dettec, 

Lechugad, Spanhoffe, & Stivef, 2002) 9 (Fankhauser, 1995) 10 (Orlove, 2005) 11 (Patel, 2006) 12 (Barnett J. , 2005)

5.6.1. Technology – Hard Engineering 

Hard engineering structures are manmade, such as dikes, levees, revetments and seawalls, which are used 

to protect the land and related infrastructure from the sea. This is done to ensure that existing land uses, 

such as tourism, continue to operate despite changes in the surface level of the sea. The capital investment 

needed for engineered protection is expensive and not ideal in sparsely populated areas. For densely 

populated cities, a seawall may be worth the investment when the costs of the protected lands are taken 

into account. To protect Historic Cockburn Town, 7.32 km of new levees would be required. This would cost 

nearly US $36 million, with annual maintenance of close to US $6 million. The cost for building a new 

seawall is even greater at approximately US $125 million, with annual maintenance of over US $3 million 

(Simpson et al., 2010). A seawall with groynes is already evident in Historic Cockburn Town, Grand Turk, as 

shown in Figure 5.6.1. 

Figure 5.6.1: Seawall and groynes, Historic Cockburn Town, Grand Turk 

Unfortunately, the effectiveness of this approach may not withstand the test of time nor withstand against 

extreme events. Protective infrastructure not only requires expensive maintenance which can have longterm 

implications for sustainability, but adaptations that are successful in one location may create further 

vulnerabilities in other locations (IPCC, 2007b). For example, sea walls can be an effective form of flood 

protection from SLR, but scouring at the base of the seawall can cause beach loss, a crucial tourism asset, at 

the front of the wall (Krauss & McDougal, 1996). Moreover, hard engineering solutions are of particular 

concern for the tourism sector because even if the structures do not cause beach loss, they are not 

aesthetically pleasing, diminishing visitor experience. It is important for tourists that sight lines to the beach 

not only be clear, but that access to the beach is direct and convenient (i.e. to not have to walk over or 

around a long protective barrier). Smaller scale hard engineering adaptations offer an alternative solution 

to large scale protection. Options include redesigning structures to elevate buildings and strengthen 

foundations to minimize the impact of flooding caused by SLR. 

132

5.6.2. Technology – Soft Engineering 

Protection can be implemented through the use of soft engineering methods which require naturally 

formed materials to control and redirect erosion processes. For example, beaches, wetlands and dunes 

have natural buffering capacity which can help reduce the adverse impacts of climate change (IPCC, 2007b). 

Through beach nourishment and wetland renewal programmes, the natural resilience of these areas 

against SLR impacts can be enhanced. Moreover, these adaptation approaches can simultaneously allow for 

natural coastal features to migrate inland, thereby minimizing the environmental impacts that can occur 

with hard engineering protection. Replenishing, restoring, replanting and reshaping sand dunes can also 

improve the protection of a coastal area, as well as maintain, and in some cases improve, the aesthetic 

value of the site. Although less expensive and less environmentally damaging, soft engineering protection is 

only temporary. For example, the ongoing maintenance required to upkeep sand dunes, such as sand 

replenishment schemes, will create the periodic presence of sand moving equipment, subsequently 

hindering visitor experience (e.g. eye and noise pollution, limited beach access). Conflicts can also arise 

between resort managers resulting in ‘sand wars’, whereby sand taken to build up the beach at one given 

resort may lead other resorts to ‘steal’ sand and place it on their own property. 

5.6.3. Policy 

Managed retreat is an adaptation measure that can be implemented to protect people and new 

developments from SLR. Implementing setback policies and discouraging new developments in vulnerable 

areas will allow for future losses to be reduced. Such an adaptation strategy raises important questions by 

local stakeholders as to whether existing land uses, such as tourism, should remain or be relocated to 

adjust to changing shorelines (e.g. inundation from SLR) (IPCC, 2007b). Adaptation through retreat can have 

the benefit of saving on infrastructure defence costs (hard and soft engineering measures) while retaining 

the aesthetic value of the coast, particularly in those areas that are uninhabited (i.e. little to no 

infrastructure or populations along the coast). The availability of land to enable retreat is not always 

possible, especially in highly developed areas where roads and infrastructures can impede setbacks or on 

small islands where land resources are limited. 

For many tourist destinations, retreat is both difficult in terms of planning (and legally challenging), as well 

as expensive to implement. Resorts and supporting tourism infrastructure are large capital investments 

that cannot be easily uprooted to allow the sea to move inland. If the resorts cannot be moved, then the 

alternative is to leave them damaged and eventually abandoned, degrading the aesthetics of the 

destination coastline. It is important that the retreat policy be well organized, with plans that clearly outline 

the land use changes and coordinate the retreat approach for all infrastructures within the affected areas. 

Additional considerations of adaptation through retreat include loss of property, land, heritage, and high 

compensation costs that will likely be required for those business and home owners that will need to 

relocate. Priority should be placed on transferring property rights to lesser developed land, allowing for 

setback changes to be established in preparation for SLR (IPCC, 2007b). 

The Turks and Caicos Islands have a multi-tiered government system, whereby multiple government 

departments are responsible for coastal zone management. The management of all natural resources, 

including activities taking place in coastal zones, falls under the responsibility of the Ministry of Natural 

Resources, which is headed by the Minister for Natural Resources, an elected official (Tietz et al., 2006). 

The policies and directives of the Minister are filtered down to the Department of Environmental and 

Coastal Resources (DECR) and the Planning Department. DECR is responsible for assisting to manage 

environmental protection activities in terms of policy-making and the development of related legislation, 

133

strategies, and plans (Tietz et al., 2006). DECR is divided into the Protected Areas Division and the Fisheries 

Division. The Planning Department plays a key role in land-use planning and managing infrastructural 

development. While there are no formal legal frameworks for amalgamation of these departments, they 

attempt to collaborate when dealing with large-scale development projects (Tietz et al., 2006). 

A code of conduct for development activities is in place to ensure that conservation and management of 

natural resources are treated as an integral part of development planning (Tietz et al., 2006). These 

regulations include setback limits for coastal development, guidelines for land clearance and the 

requirement of an EIA for large-scale development (UNESCO, 2003). Setback policies were originally set at 

60 ft from the vegetation line for all new coastal developments. This setback was later increased to 100 ft 

after the Turks and Caicos Islands participated in a project funded by the United Nations Educational, 

Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO, 2003). 

Given the small landmass of the islands that comprise Turks and Caicos, the entire state is considered as 

the coastal zone and is managed as such (Tietz et al., 2006). There are several pieces of legislation and legal 

documents that form the basis for DECR programmes. The Environmental Charter, founded in 2001 is a 

formal agreement between the U.K. and the Turks and Caicos Islands to develop and implement 

environmental management practices. Another piece of legislation is the National Park Ordinance (Chapter 

80) which provides the legal basis for the establishing and managing a protected areas system (Tietz et al 

2006). Through this Ordinance, a protected areas system was legislated in 1992 and the Turks and Caicos 

Islands now has 34 protected areas, over half of which have a marine and coastal component (Tietz et al., 

2006). 

Due to the quick onset of climate impacts on coastal areas, and the speed of development and 

environmental degradation occurring in the Turks and Caicos Islands, more needs to be done to protect 

people and the tourism sector from the imminent impacts of climate change (Tietz et al., 2006). The 

Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands understands that in order to continue developing economies 

on the islands, the protection of coastal resources made a priority as to ensure reciprocally support of the 

economy and the natural environment. 

134


Adaptive capacity can be measured through examination of policies and plans implemented for the 

management of disasters, as well as the actions taken following a disaster. Being able to reduce the 

impacts of natural disasters on a small island nation is often difficult, especially when facing major hazard 

threats on a regular basis. The post-disaster time period is a time when extra resources are needed to 

finance imports of food, energy, and inputs for the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. As a result, 

efforts to build resilience or adaptive capacity gets put aside while immediate survival, shelter and health 

needs are prioritised, along with the remedy of hazardous living conditions. 

5.7.1. Management of Natural Hazards and Disasters 

The disaster management system can be thought of as a cycle where preparedness, mitigation 5 and 

adaptation activities (disaster prevention) are the focus prior to a disaster impact. Following an impact, the 

management focus becomes response, recovery and reconstruction (disaster relief). These two parts of the 

disaster management system work together and also impact the broader social, economic, ecological and 

political system (see Figure 5.7.1). 

Disaster 

Relief 

System 

Disaster 

Prevention 

System 

Figure 5.7.1: Relationship of the Disaster Management System and Society 

Caribbean disaster management and climate change 

As a region, the Caribbean has made coordinated efforts to prepare for and respond to disasters. The 

Caribbean Disaster Emergency Management Agency, CDEMA, (previously the Caribbean Disaster 

Emergency Response Agency, CDERA) was created in 1991. CDEMA plays a leadership role in disaster 

response, mitigation and information transfer within the region, operating the Regional Coordination 

Centre during major disaster impacts in any of their 18 Participating States, while also generating useful 

data and reports on hazards and climate change. The primary mechanism through which CDEMA has 

influenced national and regional risk reduction activities is the Enhanced CDM Strategy (CDEMA, 2010). The 

primary purpose of CDM is to strengthen regional, national and community level capacity for mitigation, 

management, and coordinated response to natural and technological hazards, and the effects of climate 

change (CDEMA, 2010) (emphasis added). 

5 In the disaster management literature, ‘Mitigation’ refers to strategies that seek to minimise loss and facilitate recovery from 

disaster. This is contrary to the climate change definition of mitigation, which refers to the reduction of GHG emissions. 

135 

Socioecological 

System

This regional disaster management framework is designed to inform national level disaster planning and 

activities but also takes into consideration potential climate change impacts in its resilience building 

protocols. The four Priority Outcomes of the CDM framework are: 

1. Institutional capacity building at national and regional levels; 

2. Enhanced knowledge management; 

3. Mainstreaming of disaster risk management into national and sector plans; and 

4. Building community resilience. 

These outcomes have been further broken down into outputs that assist in the measurement of progress 

towards the full implementation of CDM at the national and community level and within sectors (see Table 

5.7.1). The CDM Governance Mechanism is comprised of the CDM Coordination and Harmonization Council 

and six (6) Sector Sub-Committees. These sectors include – Education, Health, Civil Society, Agriculture, 

Tourism and Finance. These six sectors have been prioritised in the Enhanced CDM Strategy as the focus 

during the period from 2007 to 2012. CDEMA facilitates the coordination of these committees (CDEMA, 

2010). 

To address disaster management in the Caribbean tourism sector, CDEMA, with the support of the Inter- 

American Development Bank (IDB) and in collaboration with the Caribbean Tourism Organization (CTO), 

CARICOM Regional Organization for Standards and Quality and the University of the West Indies will be 

implementing a Regional Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Project for Sustainable Tourism (The Regional 

Public Good) over the period of January 2007 to June 2010. The project aims to reduce the Caribbean 

tourism sector’s vulnerability to natural hazards through the development of a ‘Regional DRM Framework 

for Tourism’. Under the Framework, a ‘Regional DRM Strategy and Plan of Action’ will be developed, with a 

fundamental component being the development of standardised methodologies for hazard mapping, 

vulnerability assessment and economic valuation for risk assessment for the tourism sector (CDERA, 2007; 

CDERA, 2008). 

Finally, the link between CDM and climate change cannot be ignored. Projections for the region suggest 

that more extreme temperatures and more intense rainfall in certain seasons could lead to a greater 

number of hydro-meteorological disasters. Many of the hazards facing Caribbean countries already pose 

threats to lives and livelihoods and climate-related events are regular occurrences. This has been 

recognised with the mention of climate change in the CDM strategy. The CCCRA report will not only offer 

improvements to the existing disaster management framework in the region, but will also offer pragmatic 

strategies for action which will build resilience in the Caribbean to the predicted impacts from climate 

change (see herein, sections on Water Quality and Availability, Marine and Terrestrial Biodiversity and 

Fisheries, Community Livelihoods, Gender, Poverty and Development, Human Health, Energy Supply and 

Distribution, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge Impacts on Coastal Infrastructure and Settlements). 

136

Table 5.7.1: Enhanced Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme Framework 2007-2012 

GOAL 

Regional Sustainable Development enhanced through Comprehensive Disaster Management 

PURPOSE 

To strengthen regional, national and community level capacity for mitigation, management, and coordinated 

response to natural and technological hazards, and the effects of climate change. 

OUTCOME 1: 

OUTCOME 2: 

OUTCOME 3: 

OUTCOME 4: 

Enhanced institutional 

support for CDM Program 

implementation at national 

and regional levels 

OUTPUTS 

1.1 National Disaster 

Organizations are 

strengthened for supporting 

CDM implementation and a 

CDM program is developed for 

implementation at the 

national level 

1.2 CDERA CU is strengthened 

and restructured for 

effectively supporting the 

adoption of CDM in member 

countries 

1.3 Governments of 

participating states/ 

territories support CDM and 

have integrated CDM into 

national policies and 

strategies 

1.4 Donor programming 

integrates CDM into related 

environmental, climate 

change and disaster 

management programming in 

the region. 

1.5 Improved coordination at 

national and regional levels 

for disaster management 

1.6 System for CDM 

monitoring, evaluation and 

reporting being built 

An effective mechanism and 

programme for management 

of comprehensive disaster 

management knowledge has 

been established 

OUTPUTS 

2.1 Establishment of a 

Regional Disaster Risk 

Reduction Network to include 

a Disaster Risk Reduction 

Centre and other centres of 

excellence for knowledge 

acquisition sharing and 

management in the region 

2.2 Infrastructure for factbased 

policy and decision 

making is established 

/strengthened 

2.3 Improved under-standing 

and local /community-based 

knowledge sharing on priority 

hazards 

2.4 Existing educational and 

training materials for 

Comprehensive Disaster 

Management are 

standardized in the region. 

2.5 A Strategy and curriculum 

for building a culture of safety 

is established in the region 

137 

Disaster Risk Management has 

been mainstreamed at 

national levels and 

incorporated into key sectors 

of national economies 

(including tourism, health, 

agriculture and nutrition) 

OUTPUTS 

3.1 CDM is recognized as the 

roadmap for building 

resilience and Decision-makers 

in the public and private 

sectors understand and take 

action on Disaster Risk 

Management 

3.2 Disaster Risk Management 

capacity enhanced for lead 

sector agencies, National and 

regional insurance entities, 

and financial institutions 

3.3 Hazard information and 

Disaster Risk Management is 

integrated into sectoral 

policies, laws, development 

planning and operations, and 

decision-making in tourism, 

health, agriculture and 

nutrition, planning and 

infrastructure 

3.4 Prevention, Mitigation, 

Preparedness, Response, 

recovery and Rehabilitation 

Procedures developed and 

Implemented in tourism, 

health, agriculture and 

nutrition, planning and 

infrastructure 

Enhanced community 

resilience in CDERA states/ 

territories to mitigate and 

respond to the adverse effects 

of climate change and 

disasters 

OUTPUTS 

4.1 Preparedness, response 

and mitigation capacity 

(technical and managerial) is 

enhanced among public, 

private and civil sector entities 

for local level management 

and response 

4.2 Improved coordination and 

collaboration between 

community disaster 

organizations and other 

research/data partners 

including climate change 

entities for undertaking 

comprehensive disaster 

management 

4.3 Communities more aware 

and knowledgeable on 

disaster management and 

related procedures including 

safer building techniques 

4.4 Standardized holistic and 

gender-sensitive community 

methodologies for natural and 

anthropogenic hazard 

identification and mapping, 

vulnerability and risk 

assessments, and recovery 

and rehabilitation procedures 

developed and applied in 

selected communities. 

4.5 Early Warning Systems for 

disaster risk reduction 

enhanced at the community 

and national levels 

(Source: CDEMA, 2010)

5.7.2. Management of Disasters in the Turks and Caicos Islands 

The Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies is the agency responsible for disaster 

management activities. Disaster risk reduction (DRR) and hazard and vulnerability assessment are just a few 

of the activities undertaken by the agency. In their Progress Report on the HFA Goals (Department of 

Disaster Management and Emergencies, 2010) it is reported that limited budgetary allocations and limited 

human resources have prevented significant progress on the implementation of DRR plans and activities. 

The Department has support from community organisations and civil society groups and is slowly making 

progress to get more national committees on board with DRR actions (Department of Disaster 

Management and Emergencies, 2010). Political will appears to exist so limitations relate to the immediate 

cost implications associated with developing and implementing policies that would guide disaster 

management activities. As a result of the damages from hurricanes Hanna and Ike, the UK Government has 

granted TCI £5 million (US $7.5 million) for recovery and preparedness efforts. Of those funds, 25% were 

allocated to health, 20-25% to education, 20-25% to housing and 20% to disaster preparedness 

(Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands, 2009a). TCI therefore has some financial resources available 

to them because of their status as a UK Overseas Territory. 

The creation of a climate change policy and strategy is currently underway and disaster management is 

hoped to be part of that (Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies, 2010). Finally, the 

National Development Plan makes very limited mention of DRR, so more advocacy activities will also be 

needed to help achieve sustainable development goals. 

Post-disaster Activities 

TCI and the Department for Disaster Management and Emergencies do conduct regular exercises that help 

them respond to emergency situations yet at the sector level disaster response plans are lacking, especially 

for school and hospitals (Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies, 2010). Following the 

passage of Hurricane Ike (2008) several projects were started with the goal of retrofitting infrastructure in 

the Education, Health and Disaster Management sectors to provide better protection (Department of 

Disaster Management and Emergencies, 2010). The effectiveness of the disaster response was evidenced 

during the passage of Hurricanes Irene, Hanna and Ike where no lives were lost, which is the ultimate goal 

given the high level of vulnerability. 

There is a Rapid Needs Assessment Team (RNAT), led by CDEMA, who is deployed to the impacted state to 

conduct a Damage Assessment and Needs Analysis (DANA) (UNDP, 2011). This kind of skilled assessment 

team provides a standard assessment procedure across many of the CDEMA Participating States. However, 

the DANA process is only executed upon the request of the impacted state. Therefore, the assessment 

information is not available following every disaster and as such, all disaster offices should also have the 

capacity to execute a post-disaster assessment on their own. In TCI, there was a Hazard and Vulnerability 

Assessment conducted in 2008 following the major hurricane impacts from Hanna and Ike. However, this 

was a consultant project and thus TCI could still benefit from improved vulnerability assessment skills in the 

Department for Disaster Management and Emergencies (Department of Disaster Management and 

Emergencies, 2010). 

The requirement for environmental impact assessments (EIA) before many development and protective 

projects also helps to ensure post-disaster risk reduction activities do indeed reduce risks (Department of 

Disaster Management and Emergencies, 2010). The deficiencies in funding and human resources create 

concern regarding the effective enforcement of these instruments, however. 

138

Related work in needs and vulnerability assessment is taking place throughout the region. CDEMA’s 

coordinating activities across multiple countries builds response capacity by taking advantage of the 

resources and personnel from neighbouring countries. This enhances the response and reconstruction 

efforts in each country when taken advantage of the partnership. Nevertheless, the need to incorporate 

the principles of ‘building back better’ must also be a priority nationally so that the post-disaster context 

becomes an opportunity for building resilience and institutionalizing disaster risk reduction goals. 


Technology in the field of disaster management can reduce vulnerabilities through structural protective 

structures, by way of policies that control or guide development, or through public education that would 

then change the behaviours that generate vulnerability. 

Coastal Protection 

In the Caribbean investments in structural protection are often used to protect coastlines. The use of 

groynes, breakwaters and sea walls are popular methods to control coastal erosion processes and 

safeguard development from damaging wave actions. Although these structures do provide some relief, 

they generally offer only temporary benefits and sometimes also cause negative effects in other locations 

along the coast. Disaster management practices have also found that structural protection is very expensive 

and can sometimes worsen the impacts of a disaster when the size of the structure is incongruent with an 

event (e.g. sea wall structures, if broken or damaged, can add debris and exacerbate flooding and erosion). 

Further discussion of the structural responses to climate change and SLR and storm surge can be found in 

the Section 5.6. 

Technology and Public Education 

The Government of TCI has acknowledged in the National Development Plan (Government of the Turks and 

Caicos Islands, 2008) the need to review public knowledge on climate change and the environment. Further 

to this, they aim to establish a policy and regulatory framework for climate change adaptation and disaster 

risk management that would also see the commencement of a public education programme on these 

subjects (Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands, 2008). With such a large portion of non-nationals or 

immigrants (approximately 65%) (Clerveaux, Spence, & Katada, 2008), the importance of good public 

education and strong communication networks is paramount for successful risk management. 

There is no website for the Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies that provides hazard 

information, shelter locations and other relevant information that community members and tourist may 

require. There is, however, a new website (www.911tci.com) where residents can register their home 

location, physical conditions and any medical conditions of residents (Government of the Turks and Caicos 

Islands, 2009b). The project aims to assist the Department of Survey and Mapping as well as helping the 

emergency response teams in locating persons during medical or other kinds of emergency (Government of 

the Turks and Caicos Islands, 2009b). This is a good initiative but in terms of risk reduction it does little to 

change vulnerabilities. When citizens know that government agencies possess the proper information 

though, they gain confidence and the process should provoke some persons to assess their risks and 

consider evacuation routes. This does need reinforcement so that the goal of vulnerability reduction and 

preparedness can be incorporated into daily activities of both individuals and businesses. 

139

5.7.4. Policy 

Across the Caribbean policies to adapt to and manage climate change impacts are becoming more 

common. The strong relationship between disasters and climate change create a policy arena where both 

issues can be managed under similar governance mechanisms. The National Development Plan from 2008 

set out several targets for socio-economic development which address environmental management, 

including disaster management and climate change. However, the absence of DRR legislation inhibits the 

power of the Department. TCI is in the process of adopting the Regional Model Disaster Management 

Legislation which then also provides a budget allocation for DRR activities (Department of Disaster 

Management and Emergencies, 2010). Furthermore, a disconnect between monitoring reports on hazards 

and vulnerabilities and the policies and plans for action has prevented the findings from fully being 

integrated into the planning process (Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies, 2010). Once 

local government has been restored, the Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies can start 

to move forward on these issues, which they are aware of, and progress in DRR can commence. 

Environmental Impacts and Development Planning 

As a region, relevant groups are working hard toward the development and application of a Caribbean 

Building Code or Building Standards using the International Code Council (ICC) codes as the primary base 

documents with additional input from the Caribbean Uniform Building Code (CUBiC) and earlier 

assessments on wind load and seismic considerations. The Code has already been prepared and the next 

step is for each of the 15 states involved to review the documents and prepare their own Caribbean 

Application Document (CAD). This document will most likely be prepared by specialists who will determine 

how the regional code should be applied given each country’s own peculiarities, for example some 

countries will focus more heavily on flooding and less on seismic considerations. The CAD will then be 

reviewed by all of the relevant stakeholders on the National Stakeholder Subcommittee who will provide 

comments before it is submitted to CARICOM (Personal communication - Jonathan Platt, Barbados National 

Standards Institute. May 4, 2011). 

The TCI Department of Planning and other related ministries determined in the National Development 

Strategy that efforts would be made to review current Physical Planning regulations and legislation in 

addition to establishing a monitoring and enforcement unit (Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands, 

2008). While it is unclear whether this will include consideration of hazards and climate change and how, 

regular review of planning procedures and policies is a good practice and given that this process is listed 

within environmental management efforts, it is likely that high risk areas would be a basic component of 

planning controls. The establishment of a monitoring and enforcement unit is also positive as it will help 

control growth and ensure regulations are adhered to throughout the islands. The creation of better land 

use maps by the Department of Survey and Mapping, including basic household information, is also an 

important part of development planning and hazard risk reduction (Government of the Turks and Caicos 

Islands, 2009b). Once these maps are available, they would complement the Hazard and Vulnerability 

Assessment maps (as referenced in ECLAC, 2008) in informing DRR decision making and planning through 

the islands of Turks and Caicos. 

As reported in the HFA Progress Report, TCI does have good capacity in some areas, including political will, 

and areas where more progress on DRR is needed have been outlined. The links to disaster management 

are not explicitly made within climate change projects, however, EIAs and integrated planning efforts are 

indirectly benefitting DRR goals (Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies, 2010). 

140

Early Warning Systems (EWS) 

An EWS is commonly used in conjunction with an evacuation plan to guide at-risk persons to safety and 

avoid losses of life from natural hazard events. The use of an EWS is an effective communication tool only 

when the proper instrumentation for collection of the necessary weather data is present (i.e. rain gauges, 

tidal gauges, weather stations etc.). As one of their targets under the Environmental Management Policy 

efforts are being made to establish a TCI Meteorological and Hydrological Services Unit (Government of the 

Turks and Caicos Islands, 2008). This will include the installation of more monitoring stations, improving 

data processing and archiving facilities and maintenance capabilities (Government of the Turks and Caicos 

Islands, 2008). Furthermore, the EWS for TCI requires improvements to the communication system. While 

alerts for some hazards are effectively communicated by relaying information from the Bahamas 

Meteorological Office to the general public, information on impacts such as tsunami, which have less 

warning time, are very challenging in the current communication system (Department of Disaster 

Management and Emergencies, 2010). Nevertheless, the current system is effective in ensuring action is 

taken when a warning is sent and participation from local media does get the message to a wide spectrum 

of the population. 

Catastrophe Insurance Coverage 

Re-insurance within the Caribbean region has generally been provided by international insurance 

companies. However, the classification of the region as a catastrophe zone, thus being high risk, means that 

insurance premiums remain very high for those who seek insurance. The Caribbean is home to the first risk 

pooling facility designed to limit financial impacts of catastrophic hurricanes and earthquakes in Caribbean 

member countries, by providing short-term liquidity when the policy is triggered (CCRIF, 2011a). Originally, 

the insurance index was based on degree of shaking during earthquakes or wind speed for hurricane events 

and the member country would qualify for a pay-out based on their policy and the level of damages 

deemed to be associated with either wind or shaking. Recently, the need to also consider water damages 

has been noted. As a result, CCRIF has continued to make progress on an ‘Excess Rainfall product’ which is 

anticipated for the beginning of the 2011-2012 policy year starting on June 1, 2011 (CCRIF, 2011a). 

141


As part of the CARIBSAVE Community Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity Assessment methodology, 

household surveys were conducted in the Lower Bight community to determine household and community 

access to five livelihood assets (financial, physical, natural, social and human). Livelihood strategies 

(combinations of assets) are evaluated to determine the adaptive capacity of households and consequently 

communities. 

A total of 31 respondents were surveyed, 18 of whom were male and 13 female. There were 19 

respondents from male headed households and 12 respondents from female headed households. 

5.8.1. Demographic Profile of Respondents 

Residency in the Community 

Respondents indicated living in their community for varying lengths of time, and this is illustrated in Table 

5.8.1. Greater percentages of the female sub-group reported living in the community for longer periods of 

time than male respondents. 

Age Distribution 

Table 5.8.1: Length of residency in community 

Residency Male Female Total 

Less than 1 year 2 11% 1 8% 3 10% 

1 - 5 years 3 17% 0 0% 3 10% 

6 - 10 years 2 11% 3 23% 5 16% 

11 - 15 years 4 22% 3 23% 7 23% 

16 - 20 years 2 11% 2 15% 4 13% 

Over 20 years 5 28% 4 31% 9 29% 

Table 5.8.2 shows that respondents fit into most age categories, with majority of the sample (39%) being in 

the 35-44 age range. However, when disaggregated based on sex of respondent, the males were generally 

older than the female respondents. 

Table 5.8.2: Age distribution of sample 

Age Male Female TOTAL 

Under 25 1 6% 0 0% 1 3% 

25 - 34 2 11% 2 15% 4 13% 

35 - 44 6 33% 6 46% 12 39% 

45 - 54 5 28% 2 15% 7 23% 

55 - 59 2 11% 3 23% 5 16% 

Over 60 2 11% 0 0% 2 6% 

142

50% 

45% 

40% 

35% 

30% 

25% 

20% 

15% 

10% 

5% 

0% 

Under 25 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 59 Over 60 

Household Form and Structure 

Males Females 

Figure 5.8.1: Age of respondents 

Table 5.8.3 shows that only 16% of the respondents were married and 23% were single. 10% of 

respondents indicated being involved in a visiting relationship. One male respondent and 6 female 

respondents were widowed. Four respondents were separated, and four were divorced. The 

outstanding numbers of widowed women and single respondents are visibly highlighted in Figure 

5.8.2. 

Table 5.8.3: Relationship status of respondents 

Status Male Female Total 

Single 4 22% 3 23% 7 23% 

Single (Visiting Relationship) 3 17% 0 0% 3 10% 

Married 4 22% 1 8% 5 16% 

Separated 2 11% 2 15% 4 13% 

Other/ Common Law 1 6% 0 0% 1 3% 

Divorced 3 17% 1 8% 4 13% 

Widowed 1 6% 6 46% 7 23% 

143

50% 

45% 

40% 

35% 

30% 

25% 

20% 

15% 

10% 

5% 

0% 

Single Single 

(Visiting 

Relationshi 

p) 

5.8.2. Household Headship 

Figure 5.8.2: Relationship status of respondents 

The majority of respondents sampled listed themselves as the heads of their respective households. When 

disaggregated by gender 94% of males indicated they were the heads of their households with 92% of 

females indicating this role (see Table 5.8.4). Table 5.8.5 shows a much greater proportion of households 

headed by males compared to females in the sample. 

Table 5.8.4: Perception of headship of household 

Perceived as Head of 

Sex of Respondent 

Household 

Male Female 

Yes 17 94% 12 92% 

No 1 6% 1 8% 

Gender of 

Respondent 

Married Separated Other/Com 

mon Law 

Table 5.8.5: Household headship 

Male Headed 

Households 

144 

Female Headed 

Households 

Divorced Widowed 

Males 22% 17% 22% 11% 6% 17% 6% 

Females 23% 0% 8% 15% 0% 8% 46% 

Total 23% 10% 16% 13% 3% 13% 23% 

Sample (n=31) 

Male 18 95% 0 0% 18 58% 

Female 1 5% 12 100% 13 42% 

Total (% of Sample) 19 61% 12 39% 31 100% 

With regards to household size, Table 5.8.6 shows that 52% (N=16) of respondents lived alone and 32% of 

households consisted of two or three persons. The remaining 16% of households have between four and 

five members. No one indicated living in a household with more than 5 people. There were similar

distributions based on the gender of the household head, although larger households are slightly more 

likely to be headed by females. 

Table 5.8.6: Family size by sex of head of household 

Size of Household 

Male 

Headship of Household 

Female Total 

1 10 53% 6 50% 16 52% 

2 - 3 7 37% 3 25% 10 32% 

4 - 5 2 11% 3 25% 5 16% 

6 - 7 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 

8 - 9 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 

10 and over 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 

The various lengths of time reported by respondents of their residence in the community may reflect the 

migration of persons to Providenciales from other islands within the Turks and Caicos Islands since the 

tourism industry boom, as well as from other countries. The growth of the community is likely to have been 

rapid within the last two decades as a result. Few respondents reported being involved in a common law 

union or married (19% combined), instead survey results show a significant number of single and widowed 

respondents. 

Survey responses also show a high number of household heads (both male and female) amongst the 

sample group. However, there were more men that were involved in both formal and informal 

relationships when compared to women, who dominated most of the other relationship categories. The 

high number single and widowed female respondents who also have household head responsibilities would 

normally suggest greater pressures on these women to provide for the household. Men, who were more 

likely to be involved, can share responsibilities with their partners, and therefore assume less pressure. 

However, despite household headship being high amongst the sample (and single women in particular), 

84% of the sample has a relatively small number of household members (no more than three). More 

significantly, slightly more than half of the sample live alone, and therefore have no immediate 

responsibilities to provide, unless they have originated from elsewhere and may provide remittances for 

family abroad. 

5.8.3. Education and Livelihoods 

Those who completed community college comprised the largest portion of the sample (N=12/39%) 

followed by those with a secondary education (N=8/25%). Six respondents (19%) indicated completing 

technical/vocational studies. Three respondents (10% of sample) indicated completing teacher’s college 

and two respondents (6%) indicated completing tertiary level studies. The distribution of responses is 

shown in Table 5.8.7. 

145

Table 5.8.7: Sample distribution by education and training 

Highest Level of Education Male Female Total 

Primary 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 

Secondary (Ordinary Level) 5 28% 1 8% 6 19% 

Secondary (Advanced Level) 1 6% 1 8% 2 6% 

Community College 9 50% 3 23% 12 39% 

Technical-Vocational Institute 2 11% 4 31% 6 19% 

Teachers College 0 0% 3 23% 3 10% 

Tertiary 1 6% 1 8% 2 6% 

Education is one of the most important avenues for avoiding or escaping poverty, because employment 

and further education opportunities are within reach. The relatively high rate of completion of some form 

of tertiary studies is a positive sign. It would suggest that much of the sample is better prepared to be 

absorbed into the labour force, working in technical or skilled professions. It also suggests more 

possibilities of social and economic mobility amongst the respondents. 

Table 5.8.8: Sample Distribution by Main Income Earning Responsibility 

Are you the main 

income earner? 

146 


Male 1 Female Total 

Yes 15 83% 11 85% 26 84% 

No 2 11% 2 15% 4 13% 

1: One male respondent did not indicate income earning responsibility 

Comparable to the percentage of respondents who were the heads of their respective households, high 

percentages of respondents with main household income earning responsibilities were also revealed from 

the survey (see Table 5.8.8). A slightly less percentage of respondents however, were actually employed 

(see Table 5.8.9). Although small, there is some cause for concern for the percentage of household heads 

who have responsibility for bringing in income, but are unemployed. 

Table 5.8.9: Sample Distribution by Involvement in Income-Generating Activities 

Are you involved in income 

generating activity? 


Male Female Total 

Yes 14 78% 10 77% 24 77% 

No 4 22% 3 23% 7 23% 

In terms of average monthly earnings, Figure 5.8.3 shows that most of the households sampled earns on 

average USD 750 or more monthly. Given the close correlation between the respondents and household 

headship responsibilities, it would appear a greater percentage of female headed households are in the 

two highest income-making brackets when compared to male-headed households. Conversely, there is a 

greater percentage of male headed households in the two lowest brackets. As such, although there are 

some implications for the large number of single female-headed households in respect of the burden of 

care, the male-headed households (male respondents) in the lower income brackets are at a slightly 

greater risk than the female-headed households. Their vulnerability is increased owing to less financial 

resources to prepare for and absorb the shocks of an economic downturn or natural disaster. More

significant differences in household income by gender of household heads are noted in the USD 751 – 

1,250 income ranges. 8% of female respondents (N=1), and 17% of male respondents (N=3) recorded 

earning less than USD 500 per month. Approximately 3% of the sample earned between 500 and 750 USD 

per month. Another 23% earned between 750 and 1,000 USD, 32% earned between 1,001 and 1,250 USD, 

23% earned between 1,251 and 1,500 USD and 6% earned more than 1,500 USD per month. 

40% 

35% 

30% 

25% 

20% 

15% 

10% 

5% 

0% 

1500 

USD 

Male Headed Households 

USD USD 

Female Headed Households Total 

Figure 5.8.3: Sample distribution by average monthly earnings 

In terms of employment, respondents (52%) generally worked in non-tourism sectors; whereas 29% worked 

in tourism. The remaining 19% of the sample did not respond, most owing to unemployment (see Table 

5.8.10; also refer to Table 5.8.9). 

Table 5.8.10: Labour Market Participation: Involvement in Tourism Sector 

Labour Market Participation: Tourism vs. 

Non-Tourism Involvement 


Tourism 6 33% 3 23% 9 29% 

Non-Tourism 8 44% 8 62% 16 52% 

Did not respond/Unemployed 4 22% 2 15% 6 19% 

Table 5.8.11 shows that only six respondents were employed in the tourism sector, though nine 

respondents indicated working in a tourism related field. Of the respondents working in the tourism 

sector, four were taxi drivers and three were hotel workers. There was one restaurant worker and one 

person working in a privately owned business. 

147

Table 5.8.11: Labour market participation: Involvement in tourism sectors 

Employment: Tourism Sectors Male Female Total 

Taxi Driver 4 22.22% 0 0.00% 4 12.90% 

Tour Operator 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 

Hotel Workers 2 11.11% 1 7.69% 3 9.68% 

Restaurant Workers 0 0.00% 1 7.69% 1 3.23% 

Craft sellers or vendors 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 

Informal tour guides 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 

Privately owned business 1 5.56% 0 0.00% 1 3.23% 

Other 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 0 0.00% 

Did not answer 11 61.11% 11 84.62% 22 70.97% 

There were 16 respondents that indicated working in sectors other than tourism. The largest proportion of 

which were employed in construction and self employment (12.9% each), followed by education (9.7%). 

Two people worked in each the banking sector and government. One respondent indicated working in the 

mechanical/technical sector. Responses are indicated in Table 5.8.12 below. 

Table 5.8.12: Labour market participation: Involvement in non-tourism sectors 

Employment: Non-Tourism Sectors Male Female Total 

Administration 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Agriculture 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Banking/Financial 0 0.0% 2 15.4% 2 6.5% 

Building/Construction 4 22.2% 0 0.0% 4 12.9% 

Domestic worker 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Education 1 5.6% 2 15.4% 3 9.7% 

Manufacturing 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Mechanical/Technical 1 5.6% 0 0.0% 1 3.2% 

Retail Sales and Services 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Health Services 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Government Worker 1 5.6% 1 7.7% 2 6.5% 

Information Technology 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Science/Technology 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Self Employed 1 5.6% 3 23.1% 4 12.9% 

Student 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Transportation 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Did not answer 10 55.6% 5 38.5% 15 48.4% 

Other 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Participation in the tourism sector is relatively low amongst respondents, with a larger proportion of 

tourism workers being male. Construction and self-employment, similar to national findings are also 

popular sectors of employment amongst the sample. 

5.8.4. Food Security 

Overwhelmingly, respondents (100%) indicated that their food supply was procured from grocery stores or 

super markets. Also, 19.4% of respondents also indicated that their food was grown by family and other 

sources of food included Community Shops (25%). 

148

Table 5.8.13: Source of food supply 

Source of Food Male-Headed 

Households 

149 

Female-Headed 

Households 

Total 

Grown by Family 4 12.9% 2 6.5% 6 19.4% 

Grocery store / Super market 19 61.3% 12 38.7% 31 100.0% 

Open air / Traditional market 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Community Shops 3 9.7% 5 16.1% 8 25.8% 

Barter 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Other 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

When asked about the adequacy of the household food supply, majority of the sample indicated having an 

adequate supply of food throughout the year. Conversely, eight respondents indicated otherwise (see Table 

5.8.14). The relatively higher percentage of male-headed households which have an inadequate food 

supply may correspond with the higher percentage of male headed households in lower income brackets 

compared to female-headed households (see Figure 5.8.3), and further highlights the inability of these 

households to acquire the resources need to sustain themselves. Given the small sample size a definitive 

conclusion cannot be made in regards to gender and food adequacy, however, more research in this area 

could provide further insights. 

Adequacy of 

Food Supply 

Table 5.8.14: Adequacy of food supply 

Male-Headed 

Households 

Female-Headed 

Households 

Total 

(% of sample) 

Yes 13 41.9% 10 32.3% 23 74.2% 

No 6 19.4% 2 6.5% 8 25.8% 

5.8.5. Financial Security and Social Protection 

Financial support networks are relatively strong for some households, with at least a quarter of the 

respondents received financial support from relatives or family friends and 9.7% received financial support 

from charitable organizations. Religious organisations also play an important role in that 19.4% of 

respondents indicated receiving support. Respondents also received support from government and other 

sources (see Table 5.8.15). 

Sources of Support 

Table 5.8.15: Distribution by financial responsibility for house (receive support) 

Male 

Respondent 

Male Headed Female Headed 

Female 

Respondent 

Male 

Respondent 

Female 

Respondent 

Sample 

Relative 4 22.2% 1 100.0% NA NA 3 25.0% 8 25.8% 

Family Friend 5 27.8% 1 100.0% NA NA 2 16.7% 8 25.8% 

Religious Organisation 2 11.1% 1 100.0% NA NA 3 25.0% 6 19.4% 

Charitable Organisation 2 11.1% 1 100.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 3 9.7% 

Government 1 5.6% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.2% 

Other 2 11.1% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 2 6.5%

Table 5.8.16 shows that 22.6% of respondents gave financial support to family friends, with male headed 

households giving more support than female headed households. Furthermore, five respondents gave 

support to a religious organization, and one male and female gave to charitable organizations. 

Recipients of Support 

Table 5.8.16: Distribution by financial responsibility for house (give support) 

Male 

Respondent 


Female 

Respondent 

150 

Male 

Respondent 

Female 

Respondent 

Sample 

Relative 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Family Friend 4 22.2% 1 100.0% NA NA 2 16.7% 7 22.6% 

Religious Organisation 3 16.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 2 16.7% 5 16.1% 

Charitable Organisation 1 5.6% 0 0.0% NA NA 1 8.3% 2 6.5% 

Government 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Other 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

When accessing credit, respondents were more likely to seek formal sources over non-formal sources; 

41.9% accessed credit from a commercial bank, while 9.7% sought loans from a “Sou-Sou” or partner 

scheme. 19.4% sought credit from ‘other’ sources. 

Financial Reserve 

Table 5.8.17: Distribution by access to credit distribution 

Male 

Respondent 


Female 

Respondent 

Male 

Respondent 

Female 

Respondent 

Sample 

Commercial Bank Loan 6 33.3% 1 100.0% NA NA 6 50.0% 13 41.9% 

Credit Union Loan 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Sou Sou / Partner 3 16.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 3 9.7% 

Other 4 22.2% 0 0.0% NA NA 2 16.7% 6 19.4% 

Based on the statistics presented in Table 5.8.15, Table 5.8.16 and Table 5.8.17, support within and from 

outside of the household is especially evident in male-headed households, implying several possible 

situations of vulnerability or capacity of both male and female headed households in relation to (i) a need 

for or dependency on financial support from outside of the household to sustain household members (ii) 

established relationships with and access to support providers or conversely (iii) a lack of access to support 

providers. 

Perceptions of financial security varied amongst the sample, but the majority of respondents generally 

believed that in the instance of job loss or the occurrence of some natural disaster, their financial reserves 

would last less than three months. Generally, respondents indicated that their finances would last longer in 

the instance of job loss opposed to natural disaster.

45.0% 

40.0% 

35.0% 

30.0% 

25.0% 

20.0% 

15.0% 

10.0% 

5.0% 

0.0% 

Figure 5.8.4: Financial security: Job loss or natural disaster 

Figure 5.8.4 and Table 5.8.18 show that in relation to Job Loss: 

32.3% of respondents indicated that they would have financial coverage for less than one 

month; 

25.8% of respondents indicated they would have reserves for between one and three months; 

19.4% of respondents indicated they would have reserves for between four and six months; 

and 

only two respondents indicated they would have financial reserves for more than one year. 


Less than 1 

month 

1 - 3 months 4 - 6 months 7-9 months 10-12 

months 

Table 5.8.18: Sample distribution by financial security: Job loss 

Male 

Respondents 

Natural Disaster Job Loss 


Female 

Respondents 

151 

Male 

Respondents 

More than 1 

year 

Female 

Respondents 

Sample 

Less than 1 month 6 33.3% 0 0.0% NA NA 4 33.3% 10 32.3% 

1 - 3 months 3 16.7% 1 100.0% NA NA 4 33.3% 8 25.8% 

4 - 6 months 4 22.2% 0 0.0% NA NA 2 16.7% 6 19.4% 

7 - 9 months 1 5.6% 0 0.0% NA NA 1 8.3% 2 6.5% 

10 - 12 months 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

More than 1 year 2 11.1% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 2 6.5% 

Do not know 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Female respondents indicated similar, yet slightly shorter periods of financial coverage for a natural 

disaster as they had for job loss. Generally male respondents also indicated the similar, though slightly

shorter periods of financial coverage. 

The perception of ability to support the household is a particularly useful indicator of resilience and would 

be important in determining the ways in which households adapt in the face of a natural / climate related 

event. 


Table 5.8.19: Sample distribution by financial security: natural disaster 

Male 

Respondents 


Female 

Respondents 

152 

Male 

Respondents 

Female 

Respondents 

Sample 

Less than 1 month 8 44.4% 1 100.0% NA NA 3 25.0% 12 38.7% 

1 - 3 months 6 33.3% 0 0.0% NA NA 7 58.3% 13 41.9% 

4 - 6 months 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

7 - 9 months 1 5.6% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 1 3.2% 

10 - 12 months 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

More than 1 year 2 11.1% 0 0.0% NA NA 1 8.3% 3 9.7% 

Do not know 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

In terms of social protections provisions, 74.2% of respondents indicating having health insurance and 

government pensions versus 6.5% who have a private pension plan. In terms of insurance, 32.3% have 

insurance against hurricane damage, and 19.4% have insurance again flood, and 3.2% have insurance 

against storm surge. There were similar rates of coverage for male and female headed households, except 

in the category of hurricane insurance, where a higher percentage of household insurance coverage was 

observed in female-headed households. Despite the higher percentage of the sample with insurance 

against hurricane impacts, the relatively low percentage of the sample without insurance coverage for 

weather-related hazards in general is concerning, whether this may due to lack of awareness of insurance 

benefits, inability to afford insurance, or simply a lack of desire to purchase a plan. It would imply a very 

limited capacity to rebuild or restore their property in the event of damage or loss, unless there are other 

similar but unstated safety measures which these households have employed to protect themselves.

Social Protection Provision 

Table 5.8.20: Sample Distribution by Social Protection Provisions 

Male 

Respondent 


Female 

Respondent 

153 

Male 

Respondents 

Female 

Respondents 

Sample 

Health Insurance 11 61.1% 1 100.0% NA NA 11 91.7% 23 74.2% 

Private Pension Savings 

Plan 

National Insurance / 

Government Pension 

Home Insurance - Hurricane 

Damage (water/wind) 

0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 2 16.7% 2 6.5% 

13 72.2% 1 100.0% NA NA 9 75.0% 23 74.2% 

3 16.7% 1 100.0% NA NA 6 50.0% 10 32.3% 

Home Insurance (Flooding) 3 16.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 3 25.0% 6 19.4% 

Home Insurance 

(Storm Surge) 

0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 1 8.3% 1 3.2% 

Home Insurance (Fire) 1 5.6% 1 100.0% NA NA 1 8.3% 3 9.7% 

5.8.6. Asset Base 

Ownership of assets, similar to some social protection measures, was generally high for respondents. The 

highest proportion of respondents indicated ownership of houses (90.3%), land (64.5%) and commercial 

vehicles (54.8%). Generally, males and females have comparable rates of asset ownership. 

Asset / Amenity 

Table 5.8.21: Sample distribution by ownership of assets: Capital assets 

Male 

Respondents 


Female 

Respondents 

Male 

Respondents 

Female 

Respondents 

Sample 

House 15 83.3% 1 100.0% NA NA 12 100.0% 28 90.3% 

Land 9 50.0% 1 100.0% NA NA 10 83.3% 20 64.5% 

Livestock 2 11.1% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 2 6.5% 

Industrial/Agricultural 1 5.6% 0 0.0% NA NA 1 8.3% 2 6.5% 

Commercial Vehicles 9 50.0% 1 100.0% NA NA 7 58.3% 17 54.8% 

Private Business 5 27.8% 1 100.0% NA NA 4 33.3% 10 32.3% 

Other (boat) 2 11.1% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 2 6.5% 

A further examination of assets revealed that respondents most often indicated having television sets 

(90.3%), landline telephone (38.7%), radio (45.2%) and DVD players (45.2%) in their homes. 45.2% of 

respondents indicated having a desktop computer, while 48.4% indicated having laptops.

Asset / Amenity 

Table 5.8.22: Sample distribution by ownership of assets: Appliances/Electronics 

Male 

Respondents 


Female 

Respondents 

154 

Male 

Respondents 

Female 

Respondents 

Sample 

Computer (Desktop) 6 33.3% 1 100.0% NA NA 7 58.3% 14 45.2% 

Computer (Laptop) 8 44.4% 0 0.0% NA NA 7 58.3% 15 48.4% 

Internet 8 44.4% 1 100.0% NA NA 10 83.3% 19 61.3% 

Television 15 83.3% 1 100.0% NA NA 12 100.0% 28 90.3% 

Video Player/Recorder 2 11.1% 0 0.0% NA NA 2 16.7% 4 12.9% 

DVD Player 7 38.9% 0 0.0% NA NA 7 58.3% 14 45.2% 

Radio 7 38.9% 0 0.0% NA NA 5 41.7% 12 38.7% 

Telephone (Land line) 3 16.7% 0 0.0% NA NA 6 50.0% 9 29.0% 

Telephone (Mobile) 16 88.9% 1 100.0% NA NA 12 100.0% 29 93.5% 

Close to half of the sample enjoy access or ownership to information and communication assets commonly 

associated with a comfortable lifestyle. Most of the sample respondents have access to television and 

mobile phones, and close to half have a radio, laptop and/or desktop computer, although interestingly, 

more respondents have personal access to internet than personal computers. In any case, most of the 

sample has some form of access to information if needed. Effective communication in the instance of a 

climate related event seems more critical when measured against access to transportation. Predominantly 

the sample most normally had access to ‘other’ modes of transportation, though some members of male 

headed households had access to private non-motorised vehicles. 

Table 5.8.23: Sample distribution by ownership of assets: Transportation 

Vehicle Access Male Headed Female Headed Sample 

Private motorised vehicle 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 

Private non-motorised vehicle 3 17% 0 0% 3 10% 

Public transit 1 6% 0 0% 1 3% 

None 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 

Other 18 100% 0 0% 18 58% 

The largest proportion of respondents (N=20/65%) indicated that their home was made of blocks and 

cement and 29% (N=9) indicated their house was made of wood (see Table 5.8.24). Houses made 

predominantly of wood tend to be less resistant against extreme weather impacts, suggesting that roughly 

one-third of the sample is at relatively greater risk of structural damage in the event of a hurricane or major 

hurricane. However, as there have been instances where wooden houses have withstood hurricane 

conditions which caused damage to concrete structures, the correlation between house material and 

damage risk is not absolute. The material is merely an indicator of the integrity of the structure. Gender 

disparities in the case of house materials were nominal.

Table 5.8.24: Sample distribution by ownership of assets: House material 

House Material Male Headed Female Headed Sample 

Brick and Mortar 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 

Blocks and Cement 11 61% 9 69% 20 65% 

Mud 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 

Wood 6 33% 3 23% 9 29% 

Other 0 0% 0 0% 0 0% 

Respondents indicated that they had access to sanitation conveniences, with all of the respondents 

sampled indicating that they always had access to liquid waste disposal and most (96.8%) having access to 

indoor water-flush toilets. Most respondents (90.3%) were also serviced by regular to garbage collection. 

Access to sanitation conveniences serve as an indicator of the state of environmental health of households 

and the community in general, and any risks to the physical health of residents as a result of a lack of 

access. Based on responses, household sanitation is very good and therefore poses minimal risk of the 

emergence of health conditions associated with poor sanitation. 

Table 5.8.25: Sample distribution by ownership of assets: Access to sanitation conveniences 

Amenity Access Male Headed Female Headed Sample 

Always 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 

Liquid waste disposal Sometimes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

Never 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

Always 94.7% 100.0% 96.8% 

Indoor water-flush toilets Sometimes 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

Never 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

Always 84.2% 100.0% 90.3% 

Garbage collection Sometimes 10.5% 0.0% 6.5% 

Never 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

5.8.7. Power and Decision Making 

Both female and male respondents indicated high levels of responsibility for decision making at level of the 

household and 15.4% played a role in informal community organisations (see Table 5.8.26). Given the high 

percentage of household heads within the sample (both males and females), the high percentages of 

respondents with household decision-making responsibilities is not surprising and there is little difference 

between male and female statistics (see Table 5.8.27). The minimal community group participation also 

reflects anecdotal reports of a lack of community organisations within Lower Bight, and may also suggest 

that existing groups are not strong or popular. 

Table 5.8.26: Power and decision making 

Site of Decision Making Males Females 

Household 16 88.9% 12 92.3% 

Informal Community 0 0.0% 2 15.4% 

Formal Community 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

155

Table 5.8.27: Power and decision making: Intra household 

Site of Decision 


Making 

Male Female Total Male Female Total 

Household 16 88.9% 1 100.0% 17 89.5% NA NA 11 91.7% 11 91.7% 

Informal 

0 0.0% 1 100.0% 1 5.3% NA NA 1 8.3% 1 8.3% 

Community 

Formal 

Community 

0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% NA NA 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

5.8.8. Social Networks and Social Capital 

Respondents were rarely active in their community; 15.4% of females and 5.6% of male respondents 

reported belonging to a social group within the community. 

Table 5.8.28: Social networks: Community involvement 

Group 

Membership Male Female 

Yes 1 5.6% 2 15.4% 

No 16 88.9% 10 76.9% 

With regards to social support systems, male respondents indicated a preference to rely on relatives (and 

friends to a slightly lesser extent) for physical help, personal advice and financial assistance. A similar trend 

was noticed amongst female respondents for support systems. Government Agencies were rarely indicated 

by male respondents, but would be sought by some female respondents for personal and financial help 

(see Table 5.8.29). Some respondents would also consider seeking assistance from religious organisations. 

The relatively greater preference to ask family or friends may be indicative of the level of comfort of the 

respondents with the respective persons, and a tendency not to rely on Government aid, which is sought 

out mainly under dire circumstances. 

Table 5.8.29: Social networks: Support systems 

Support System 

Physical Help 

Male Female 

Personal Advice 

Male Female 

Financial Assistance 

Male Female 

Relative (within the household) 22.2% 46.2% 38.9% 38.5% 22.2% 30.8% 

Relative (outside the household) 33.3% 46.2% 66.7% 76.9% 38.9% 46.2% 

Family friend 33.3% 46.2% 33.3% 38.5% 5.6% 23.1% 

Religious Organisation 5.6% 7.7% 33.3% 61.5% 11.1% 7.7% 

Non-religious Charity 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% 

Government Agency 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 23.1% 0.0% 15.4% 

5.8.9. Use of Natural Resources 

Table 5.8.30 shows that very few respondents have any significant use of natural resources for subsistence, 

livelihood or recreational purposes. Specific resources which were highlighted included agricultural land, 

the sea, coral reefs and mangroves. The remaining resources are likely to be unimportant, non-existent or 

not within the community’s immediate reach. 

156

Subsistence 

Agricultural land (16%) was indicated to be the most important resource for subsistence. Very little 

importance was attributed to other resources. 

Livelihood 

In terms of livelihoods, agricultural land was again the most important with 16%, as well as the sea, ranked 

but the same percentage of respondents. 

Recreation 

Other than the sea, coral reefs, agricultural land and mangroves; little importance was associated with the 

use of natural resources for recreation purposes. 

When further disaggregated on the basis of gender, there was little disparity in the use of natural assets. 

However, a slightly larger proportion of male respondents were dependent on coastal natural resources for 

livelihood and subsistence purposes, as well as agricultural land for livelihood activities (see Table 5.8.31). 

157

Table 5.8.30: Use and importance of natural resources 

Resource Importance Subsistence Livelihood Recreation 

River / Stream 

Sea 

Coral Reefs 

Mangrove 

Agricultural 

Land 

Bush and 

Forest 

Mountain 

Caves 

Wild Animals 

Very Important 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Somewhat important 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

Not at all important 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

None / Do Not Use 31 100.0% 31 100.0% 31 100.0% 




None / Do Not Use 30 96.8% 26 83.9% 8 25.8% 




None / Do Not Use 31 100.0% 30 96.8% 12 57.1% 




None / Do Not Use 30 96.8% 31 100.0% 26 83.9% 




None / Do Not Use 26 83.9% 26 83.9% 27 87.1% 




None / Do Not Use 31 100.0% 31 100.0% 31 100.0% 




None / Do Not Use 31 100.0% 31 100.0% 31 100.0% 




None / Do Not Use 31 100.0% 31 100.0% 31 100.0% 




None / Do Not Use 31 100.0% 31 100.0% 31 100.0% 

158

Resource Importance 

River / Stream 

Sea 

Coral Reefs 

Mangrove 

Agricultural 

Land 

Bush and 

Forest 

Mountain 

Caves 

Wild Animals 

Table 5.8.31: Use and importance of natural resources, by sex of respondent 

Subsistence Livelihood Recreation 

Male Female Male Female Male Female 

Very Important 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

Somewhat important 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

Not at all important 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

None / Do Not Use 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 




None / Do Not Use 94.4% 100.0% 72.2% 100.0% 16.7% 38.5% 




None / Do Not Use 100.0% 100.0% 94.4% 100.0% 37.5% 69.2% 




None / Do Not Use 100.0% 92.3% 100.0% 100.0% 83.3% 84.6% 




None / Do Not Use 83.3% 84.6% 77.8% 92.3% 88.9% 84.6% 




None / Do Not Use 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 




None / Do Not Use 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 




None / Do Not Use 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 




None / Do Not Use 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 100.0% 

159

Agriculture 

Nine respondents indicated they were involved in the agriculture sector. Of the respondents involved in 

agriculture, 40% of males always had access to water, and 60% sometimes had access to water. For female 

headed households, 75% always had access to water compared to 25% who sometimes had access to 

water, highlighting a higher level of access amongst women. 

Reliability of 

Water 

Table 5.8.32: Involvement in agriculture: Access to water 

Male Female 

Total Respondents 

Involved in Agriculture 

No. 

% of 

males 

No. 

% of 

females 

No. 

% of 

total 

Always 2 40% 3 75% 5 55.6% 

Sometimes 3 60% 1 25% 4 44.4% 

Never 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 

5.8.10. Knowledge, Exposure and Experience of Climate Related Events 

Respondents indicated very good levels of knowledge in relation to hurricanes (51.6%), and average or very 

good knowledge of flooding (average = 54.8% and very good = 29.0%) as well as drought (average = 41.9% 

and very good= 16.1%). However, knowledge was not quite as comprehensive in relation to landslides 

(48.4% indicated poor knowledge). 

When examined on the basis of household structure and headship, there was a small difference between 

male and female headed households. Females consistently showed slightly lower levels of knowledge of 

climate related events compared to males. 

Table 5.8.33: Knowledge of climate related events 

Event Knowledge SAMPLE 1 MALE HEADED 


FEMALE HEADED 


Poor 3.2% 5.6% 0.0% 5.3% NA 0.0% 0.0% 

Hurricane Average 41.9% 33.3% 100.0% 36.8% NA 50.0% 50.0% 

Very Good 51.6% 55.6% 0.0% 52.6% NA 50.0% 50.0% 

Poor 9.7% 11.1% 0.0% 10.5% NA 8.3% 8.3% 

Flooding Average 54.8% 50.0% 100.0% 52.6% NA 58.3% 58.3% 

Very Good 29.0% 27.8% 0.0% 26.3% NA 33.3% 33.3% 

Poor 22.6% 22.2% 0.0% 21.1% NA 25.0% 25.0% 

Storm Surge Average 51.6% 44.4% 100.0% 47.4% NA 58.3% 58.3% 

Very Good 19.4% 22.2% 0.0% 21.1% NA 16.7% 16.7% 

Poor 35.5% 33.3% 100.0% 36.8% NA 33.3% 33.3% 

Drought Average 41.9% 38.9% 0.0% 36.8% NA 50.0% 50.0% 

Very Good 16.1% 16.7% 0.0% 15.8% NA 16.7% 16.7% 

Poor 48.4% 33.3% 100.0% 36.8% NA 66.7% 66.7% 

Landslides Average 32.3% 38.9% 0.0% 36.8% NA 25.0% 25.0% 

Very Good 12.9% 16.7% 0.0% 15.8% NA 8.3% 8.3% 

1: Where one or more respondents did not indicate an option, the total percentage of respondents sum up to less 100% 

Despite knowledge gaps with regards to the technical aspects of the various climate related events, 

respondents showed various levels of awareness of the appropriate course of action to be taken in the 

instance such an event occurred (see Table 5.8.34): 

160

In the event of a hurricane, 90.3% of the sample was aware of what to do, without having to ask for 

assistance. 

In the instance of flooding, a slightly less proportion of respondents sampled (71.0%) were aware of 

appropriate actions to take, without asking for assistance 

In the instance of a storm surge, 32.3% of respondents sampled were aware of appropriate actions 

to take, without asking for assistance 

In the instance of a drought, 29.0% of respondents sampled were aware of appropriate actions to 

take, without asking for assistance 

In the event of a landslide, only 12.9% of respondents were aware of what should be done. 

Table 5.8.34: Knowledge of appropriate response to climate related events 

Event Knowledge SAMPLE 1 MALE HEADED 


FEMALE HEADED 


Yes 90.3% 83.3% 100.0% 84.2% NA 100.0% 100.0% 

Hurricane No 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% NA 0.0% 0.0% 

Don't Know 6.5% 11.1% 0.0% 10.5% NA 0.0% 0.0% 

Yes 71.0% 66.7% 100.0% 68.4% NA 75.0% 75.0% 

Flooding No 16.1% 16.7% 0.0% 15.8% NA 16.7% 16.7% 

Don't Know 9.7% 11.1% 0.0% 10.5% NA 8.3% 8.3% 

Yes 32.3% 27.8% 100.0% 31.6% NA 33.3% 33.3% 

Storm Surge No 41.9% 44.4% 0.0% 42.1% NA 41.7% 41.7% 

Don't Know 22.6% 22.2% 0.0% 21.1% NA 25.0% 25.0% 

Yes 29.0% 33.3% 0.0% 31.6% NA 25.0% 25.0% 

Drought No 41.9% 38.9% 100.0% 42.1% NA 41.7% 41.7% 

Don't Know 19.4% 22.2% 0.0% 21.1% NA 16.7% 16.7% 

Yes 12.9% 16.7% 0.0% 15.8% NA 8.3% 8.3% 

Landslides No 25.8% 16.7% 100.0% 21.1% NA 33.3% 33.3% 

Don't Know 58.1% 61.1% 0.0% 57.9% NA 58.3% 58.3% 


Given the frequency of hurricane and flooding events yearly, and previous experiences with hurricane and 

flooding impacts in the community, it is not surprising that residents have a higher level of knowledge on 

preparation tasks and requirements for these events, compared to others. 

When questioned around the perceived risk of climate related events to their households, respondents 

most often indicated a low risk or no risk to most events (see Table 5.8.35). 

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Event 

Hurricane 

Flooding 

Storm 

Surge 

Drought 

Landslides 

Table 5.8.35: Perceived level of risk of climate related events: Household 

Perception 

of Risk 

SAMPLE 1 MALE HEADED 


FEMALE HEADED 


No Risk 45.2% 38.9% 0.0% 36.8% NA 58.3% 58.3% 

Low Risk 29.0% 22.2% 100.0% 26.3% NA 33.3% 33.3% 

High Risk 22.6% 33.3% 0.0% 31.6% NA 8.3% 8.3% 

No Risk 41.9% 33.3% 100.0% 36.8% NA 50.0% 50.0% 

Low Risk 29.0% 27.8% 0.0% 26.3% NA 33.3% 33.3% 

High Risk 22.6% 27.8% 0.0% 26.3% NA 16.7% 16.7% 

No Risk 38.7% 38.9% 0.0% 36.8% NA 41.7% 41.7% 

Low Risk 32.3% 27.8% 100.0% 31.6% NA 33.3% 33.3% 

High Risk 22.6% 22.2% 0.0% 21.1% NA 25.0% 25.0% 

No Risk 67.7% 44.4% 100.0% 47.4% NA 100.0% 100.0% 

Low Risk 12.9% 22.2% 0.0% 21.1% NA 0.0% 0.0% 

High Risk 12.9% 22.2% 0.0% 21.1% NA 0.0% 0.0% 

No Risk 58.1% 38.9% 100.0% 42.1% NA 83.3% 83.3% 

Low Risk 3.2% 5.6% 0.0% 5.3% NA 0.0% 0.0% 

High Risk 32.3% 44.4% 0.0% 42.1% NA 16.7% 16.7% 


Of interest, respondents reported higher levels of risk to climate related event for the community than they 

did for their own households for hurricanes and flooding, which would suggest that, despite the 

community’s previous experiences with hurricanes and flooding impacts, respondents have confidence in 

the ability of their homes to withstand these impacts, and therefore feel safer there. Perceptions of risk to 

the household vary slightly from perceptions of community risk for storm surge and landslide events, but as 

these tend to be localised events, perceptions from respondents may vary depending on their own location 

in relation to the sea (storm surge risk) or steeply sloping, landslide-prone areas. 

Respondents appear to have minimal concern for drought events, which may have occurred infrequently in 

the past and therefore respondents do not discern any immediate threat. However, given the likelihood of 

increasing temperatures and variable rainfall, the likelihood of more frequent drought-like conditions 

increases and residents therefore need to be prepared for this eventuality regardless of the rarity of 

drought occurrences that they may be accustomed to (see Table 5.8.36). This approach goes beyond 

drought events, and should apply in all cases of climate-related events. 

162

Event 

Hurricane 

Flooding 

Storm 

Surge 

Drought 

Landslides 

Table 5.8.36: Perceived level of risk of climate related events: Community 

Perception 

of Risk 

SAMPLE 1 

MALE HEADED 


FEMALE HEADED 


No Risk 9.7% 16.7% 0.0% 15.8% NA 0.0% 0.0% 

Low Risk 48.4% 44.4% 100.0% 47.4% NA 50.0% 50.0% 

High Risk 38.7% 33.3% 0.0% 31.6% NA 50.0% 50.0% 

No Risk 12.9% 22.2% 0.0% 21.1% NA 0.0% 0.0% 

Low Risk 41.9% 38.9% 100.0% 42.1% NA 41.7% 41.7% 

High Risk 41.9% 33.3% 0.0% 31.6% NA 58.3% 58.3% 

No Risk 25.8% 33.3% 0.0% 31.6% NA 16.7% 16.7% 

Low Risk 25.8% 27.8% 0.0% 26.3% NA 25.0% 25.0% 

High Risk 29.0% 5.6% 100.0% 10.5% NA 58.3% 58.3% 

No Risk 64.5% 61.1% 100.0% 63.2% NA 66.7% 66.7% 

Low Risk 22.6% 27.8% 0.0% 26.3% NA 16.7% 16.7% 

High Risk 6.5% 5.6% 0.0% 5.3% NA 8.3% 8.3% 

No Risk 54.8% 50.0% 0.0% 47.4% NA 66.7% 66.7% 

Low Risk 12.9% 16.7% 100.0% 21.1% NA 0.0% 0.0% 

High Risk 25.8% 27.8% 0.0% 26.3% NA 25.0% 25.0% 


Storm 

Surge Drought Landslides 

Hurricane Flooding 

High Risk 

Low Risk 

No Risk 

High Risk 

Low Risk 

No Risk 

High Risk 

Low Risk 

No Risk 

High Risk 

Low Risk 

No Risk 

High Risk 

Low Risk 

No Risk 

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 

Risk to Household Risk to Community 

Figure 5.8.5: Perception of risk for climate related events 

Similar to perceptions of risk of climate related events, respondents consistently reported higher levels of 

support received within the community than in their respective households during climate related events. 

The greatest disparity was observed in evacuation assistance and public education materials supplies. 

163

Evacuation 

Assistance 

Residence in 

shelter 

structure 

improvements 

public 

education 

material 

Relief Supplies 

Yes 

No 

Don't Know 

Yes 

No 

Don't Know 

Yes 

No 

Don't Know 

Yes 

No 

Don't Know 

Yes 

No 

Don't Know 

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 

Disaster Management Household Disaster Management Community 

Figure 5.8.6: Support during climate related events 

5.8.11. Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies 

As shown in Table 5.8.37, a number of households have engaged in various activities in response to, or to 

try to reduce the impact of future weather impacts. Some of the more popular strategies of those listed in 

the table include selling assets, reducing expenses, borrowing money and seeking assistance. Most of the 

undertaken activities were in response mainly to hurricane and flooding events. Storm surge, drought and 

landslide events were of less concern. In terms of gender, slightly more male headed households took 

action against the weather impacts compared to females. Overall, although some households took a 

combined strategy approach, no more than a third of the sample indicated taking a given action or set of 

actions. 

164

Table 5.8.37: Household Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies 

STRATEGY Event Sample 

Male Headed 


Female Headed 


Hurricane 9 5 1 6 0 3 3 

Flooding 6 3 0 3 0 3 3 

SELLING ASSETS 

Storm Surge 

Drought 

1 

2 

1 

1 

0 

1 

1 

2 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

Landslide 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 

Other 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 

Hurricane 6 4 0 4 0 2 2 

Flooding 9 6 0 6 0 3 3 

BORROWING Storm Surge 2 0 0 0 0 2 2 

MONEY 

Drought 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 


Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Hurricane 3 3 0 3 0 0 0 

Flooding 6 3 1 4 0 2 2 

SEEKING 

Storm Surge 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

ASSISTANCE Drought 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 


Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Hurricane 9 4 0 4 0 5 5 

Flooding 6 3 0 3 0 3 3 

REDUCING Storm Surge 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 

EXPENSES Drought 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 


Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Hurricane 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

STARTING A Flooding 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

NEW 

Storm Surge 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

LIVELIHOOD Drought 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

ACTIVITY Landslide 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Hurricane 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

DECREASING 

HOUSEHOLD 

SIZE 

Flooding 

Storm Surge 

Drought 

Landslide 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Hurricane 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

Flooding 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

OTHER ACTIVITY 

Storm Surge 

Drought 

1 

1 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

0 

1 

1 

1 

1 


Other 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 

165

6. RECOMMENDED STRATEGIES AND INITIAL ACTION PLAN 

The following recommendations have been developed in consultation with national and community 

stakeholders through the use of various participatory tools. They support the main objective of the CCCRA 

which is to provide a scientific (physical and social) basis to support decision making, policy and planning by 

governments, communities and the private sector that increase resilience of economies and livelihoods to 

climate change. The recommendations are also consistent with the strategies and programmes identified in 

the Climate Change and the Caribbean: A Regional Framework for Achieving Development Resilient to 

Climate Change endorsed by the CARICOM Heads of State. 

Recommendations are presented as an initial plan of action with a brief description of the intervention, the 

national and/or local stakeholders involved and the expected benefits, and are categorised according to 

short-, medium- and long-term interventions. All recommendations are considered ‘No-regret’ or ‘Lowregret’ 

strategies. 'No-regret' strategies seek to maximise positive and minimise negative outcomes for 

communities and societies in climate-sensitive areas such as agriculture, food security, water resources and 

health. This means taking climate-related decisions or actions that make sense in development terms, 

whether or not a specific climate threat actually materialises in the future. ‘Low-regret’ adaptation options 

are those where moderate levels of investment increase the capacity to cope with future climate risks. 

Typically, these involve over-specifying components, for example installing larger diameter drains or 

hurricane shutters at the time of initial construction or refurbishment (World Bank, 2012). 

Each one or a group of recommendations can be further developed into a concept note or project proposal 

with a full action plan, with much of the supporting information found in this document. Earlier sections of 

this report have provided the rationale for recommended interventions based on the vulnerabilities and 

adaptive capacity identified for key sectors. 

6.1. Cross-Cutting Actions 

The following activities must be undertaken in the short-term, across a number of sectors, to ensure the 

success of the more specific and practical recommendations presented in later sections. These cross-cutting 

actions provide the necessary foundation, in terms of information and data, development policy, 

awareness raising and cross-sectoral linkages from which wider actions to combat the threat of climate 

change on future development can be legitimised. With this foundation, future actions and the allocation 

of resources to adaptation and mitigation activities are more easily justified because decisions can be based 

on current information, as well as common goals and a widespread understanding of the severity of the 

threat. 

6.1.1. Data Collection, Monitoring and Evaluation 

It is evident in a number of sectors that the lack of data and inadequate monitoring and evaluation 

procedures inhibit the ability of the relevant agencies to plan and manage a number of resources. 

Monitoring and evaluation is essential if progress is to be demonstrated. By collecting and sharing the 

information gathered, Section 6.1.3, it is possible to gain even greater support amongst stakeholders. 

Specific areas and suggestions for data collection, monitoring and evaluation include: 

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Assessments focussing on the links between health, tourism and climate change: Further research 

should be conducted to link the epidemiology of diseases in the Turks and Caicos Islands with 

climate data. For instance, dengue fever is perhaps under-reported by travellers who experience 

the generalised symptoms of the disease and are unfamiliar with them and similarly health care 

professionals also under diagnose the disease (Wilder-Smith and Schwartz, 2005). An Exit Survey 

can be conducted to prove or disprove the former scenario, to investigate other potential health 

concerns, and to determine the perception of tourists on the relationships between travel, health 

and climate change in TCI. These assessments can lead to a better understanding of the 

implications for tourists entering the region contracting diseases, particularly communicable 

diseases; and the likelihood of destination substitution. 

Energy audits: Only few countries and businesses assess and monitor their tourism-related energy 

use and emissions. National, as well as company-specific inventories to assess energy use and 

related emissions are a precondition for any work to reduce energy use. It is therefore 

recommended that capacity assessments be undertaken and the necessary training provided to 

ensure that the Turks and Caicos Islands have the personnel capable of undertaking energy and 

carbon audits. Energy- and carbon labelling of a wide range of products and services should also be 

policy goals. As for instance Meade and Pringle (2001) have shown, engaging in environmental 

management systems can have a significant cost-saving impact and be an avenue to engage 

stakeholders. 

6.1.2. Mainstreaming Climate Change in Policy, Planning and Practice 

Due to the time scales required for the removal of GHG from the atmosphere and the thermal inertia of the 

oceans, the effects of prior emissions will ensure that climate change impacts will persist for more than a 

millennium (Areces-Mallea, et al., 1999; MHLE, 2005). It is therefore vital to not only recognize the 

vulnerabilities, but to anticipate and prepare for future implications. More than implementing a technology 

or building a structure, mainstreaming climate change becomes a critical element of adaptation if it is to be 

successful. It involves awareness raising, information sharing, planning and design, implementation, and 

perhaps most importantly, evaluation (Linham & Nicholls, 2010). In particular, where policies and plans 

already exist there are areas that lack sufficient consideration of climate change and its impacts. The 

following recommendations were tailored to address some of the gaps revealed: 

Work with relevant tourism stakeholders – the Department of Tourism and the Turks and Caicos Hotel 

and Tourism Association – to further develop and implement sustainable tourism plans with more 

attention paid to disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation: Tourism infrastructure is 

currently concentrated in the coastal zone where the risk of storm surge, tsunami and coastal erosion is 

greatest. These hazards will degrade the tourism product (e.g. beach, coral reef) and also expose tourists to 

higher risks than would occur if they were staying at a place of accommodation in the interior of the island 

or on higher ground. Given the limited availability of such ‘safer’ locations in TCI, the importance of 

preparedness and mitigation is great. Furthermore, climate change threatens to degrade, and possibly 

destroy the Caribbean tourism industry, and impacts on a single island may be transferred to other islands 

since tourists often view the region as one destination. Collaboration and support from hotels and tourismrelated 

enterprises is needed to successfully enable climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction 

goals in TCI. 

Integrate SLR considerations in local land use and development planning, with special consideration for 

vulnerable coastal areas and tourism hot-spots to reduce or avoid impacts: This requires national-level 

consultation with the Departments of Planning, Survey and Mapping, Land Valuation, Environment and 

167

Coastal Resources and Tourism to utilise the broad scale results of this study and higher-resolution local 

scale studies to guide reviews and updates of official land use and tourism master plans. In conjunction, 

further measures to be considered include: 

To commence coastal adaptation planning early, by working with local stakeholders on the 

development of coastal protection systems. The detailed local level planning for coastal protection 

needs to begin within the next 15 years if the environmental assessments, financing, land 

acquisition, and construction is to be completed by mid-Century, so that the economic benefits of 

damage prevention are optimized. 

To assess all projects that involve building, maintaining, or modifying infrastructure in coastal areas 

at risk from SLR to ensure that the new developments take the most recent estimates of SLR from 

the scientific community into account. The cost of reconstruction after flood damage is often 

higher than modifying structures in the design phase. 

To work with insurance companies to develop policies that take into account the unique risks faced 

by coastal areas which will enable landowners to properly assess coastal protection and retreat 

options. 

To provide subsidies for appropriate adaptation measures, especially for properties that suffer 

repeated losses or are at high risk of SLR inundation and erosion, that will result in long term 

economic benefits for both the tourism sector as well as for the people of the Turks and Caicos 


Use regulation to stimulate changes and adaptation and create incentives for low-carbon technology use: 

While carbon pricing is the most efficient tool to stimulate behavioural change and changes in production, 

market failures justify additional policy intervention (see also Francis et al., 2007). Moreover, regulation can 

include building codes and other minimum standards to reduce emissions, also with a view on adaptation. 

Actual enforcement of existing environmental regulations needs to be ensured. The introduction of lowcarbon 

technology needs to be supported through incentive structures. An ecological tax reform, for 

instance, could shift tax burdens from labour to energy and natural resources, and thus “reward” users of 

low-carbon technology. Other incentives could include financial support, reward mechanisms or awards. 

There is also a range of examples of bonus-malus 6 systems in tourism and transport, rewarding those 

choosing to pollute less. 

Mainstream gender and poverty into climate change and related policies. Challenges of poverty reduction 

and climate change need to be addressed in a coherent and synergistic way. This is especially crucial for TCI 

as gender and poverty considerations are limited or non-existent within the TCI Green Paper. It is important 

to draw on the lessons and progress in development policy and particularly the recognition of the 

importance of gender differences if policies are to be sustainable, effective, and benefit all sectors of the 

population. Achieving sustainable and effective responses to climate change, therefore, requires attention 

to the underlying power relations and gender equalities which create vulnerability both to poverty and 

climate hazards, and a more gender-sensitive approach which takes into account and evaluates the 

differing and potentially inequitable access which men and women have to economic, ecological, social and 

human resources, institutions, governance and infrastructure. Collaboration between the TCI Gender 

Affairs Unit, the Department for Environment and Coastal Resources, and the cross-sectoral Climate 

Change Committee is paramount to strengthening future environment and climate change policy 

interventions with a gender lens. These factors could be addressed through jointly supported initiatives to: 

6 Business arrangements which alternately reward (bonus) or penalise (malus) for specific actions. 

168

Provide gender disaggregated data and evidence on the impacts of climate change to show 

how men and women are being affected differently by climate-related changes. This could be 

done for direct impacts, such as extreme weather conditions or disasters, water shortages, 

food insecurity or changes in land use. This could also be done for indirect secondary impacts, 

such as access to energy, changes in employment opportunities, sectoral impacts (e.g. 

agriculture, tourism and fisheries), and increased migration or conflict. 

Conduct a gender analysis on the social impacts of current policies on adaptation and 

mitigation and how they may benefit or adversely affect men and women in different ways. 

Even when policies have clear gender-related statements or objectives, rarely do they have the 

mechanisms in place to integrate gender at a programme level or to measure the impact of the 

policies from a gendered perspective. Economic cost-benefit analyses often overlook the social 

implications and there is a lack of methodology for measuring the gendered impacts of current 

policies. 

Improve institutional capacity in key agencies to implement gender sensitive policy or gather 

gendered data. This is needed due to the lack of gender experts involved in policy design and 

implementation around climate change; the lack of awareness or gender training of key staff in 

ministries and statistics offices responsible for climate change data and policies; and a general 

disconnect between the reality of poor people’s (and particularly under-represented women’s) 

lives and policy makers. 

6.1.3. Information Sharing, Communication and Networking 

It is essential that a tri-partite approach is taken when developing the full action plans for the 

recommended strategies given. A number of relevant studies have been undertaken in the Turks and Caicos 

Islands in the past, but the recommendations are frequently not implemented for a number of reasons, lack 

of resources being commonly cited. By establishing a framework by which government, private sector 

entities and civil society can work more effectively together, the probability of implementation and 

widespread ‘buy-in’ to the numerous initiatives increases. It is not possible for any one group to achieve the 

changes that are needed alone and government must ensure that national policy goals and challenges 

faced are shared so that solutions can be discussed and negotiated between groups. Gaining support for 

initiatives is also facilitated through education and awareness, Section 6.1.4. 

The data and information produced through the various initiatives described in Section 6.1.1 must be 

communicated and made available through networks in each sector and across sectors. This is especially 

true for the idea of a green economy that will require the restructuring of economic systems towards 

establishing a low-carbon society, Section 6.3. It is thus important to document and communicate progress 

to create positive opinion in large parts of society. 

National level data should be made available to regional clearing houses where they exist and, where they 

don’t exist, thought should be given to establishing them. An area that could benefit from such a data 

repository is health. In particular, information on diseases whose transmission is modified by climate 

change as well relevant environmental data (Moreno, 2006), which would require input from health, 

environment and meteorological departments. 

169

6.1.4. Climate Change Education and Awareness 

The previous section on communication and networking relates directly to the sharing of information to 

assist decision making and planning. However, without education and awareness raising on climate change 

and the likely impacts of climate change on specific sectors the information shared will be meaningless. The 

research in a number of sectors highlighted specific areas that need additional efforts in education and 

awareness: 

Disaster risk reduction and emergency preparedness at the household level; 

Water conservation, rain water harvesting and other collection techniques for households, as well 

as water treatment; 

The importance of energy and the role of emissions in climate change, specifically knowledge about 

energy, its generation, and the economic and environmental importance of energy; 

Climate-related diseases and health promotion, particularly malaria and diarrhoea and the 

development of linkages with the agricultural sector to reduce malnutrition and improve food 

security; 

Impacts and costs of SLR to communities, but also to the public and private sectors, because of 

these damages have implications for livelihoods and sustainable development. 

Due to the interrelated nature of some environmental issues and natural processes collaboration between 

different sectors can reinforce learning amongst the general public while also providing synergistic benefits 

for resources. Creative methods for public education and awareness have been developed. For example, 

the use of mobile phone technology can allow vital information to reach individuals during emergency 

situations. Research at the community level revealed that not all persons have cell phones, so this 

technique requires complementary messages to be transmitted through more traditional mediums, radio 

and television. In addition, building awareness of the issues mentioned above can be better embraced 

when the message is conveyed by a respected figure. Children and youth have been found to be good 

transmitters of basic environmental information. 

Education and Awareness Projects for In-bound Tourists: Films can be effective tools in influencing human 

behaviour. Short videos encouraging visitors to be more conscious of their impacts on the fragile 

ecosystems of the islands can be shown during in-bound international flights. The films will focus on 

positive actions that visitors can take to minimize negative impacts on the environment by decreasing 

energy and water consumption and wastage, and by taking necessary precautions during marine based 

recreation (diving, snorkelling, boating). The films will be geared towards showing viewers how their 

vacation experience will be enhanced if they use environmentally friendly practices. 

Film production will engage as much local expertise as possible including actors, cameramen, technicians 

etc. Other stakeholders will include the various tourism organizations. By reducing anthropogenic stresses 

on the environment, ecosystem health will improve and become better able to cope with climate change. 


The Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands is planning appropriate measures for water resources 

under climate change through the National Socio-economic Development Framework (2008-2017): National 

Socio-economic Development Strategy (DEPS, 2007b) and the Turks and Caicos Islands Climate Change 

Green Paper (Climate Change Committee, 2011), outlined in Section 5.1.1. These measures are broadly 

supported here. In addition, the following recommendations are made: 

170

Short Term Actions 

Reassess water pricing structures to ensure that the full cost of water is charged: Water pricing should 

include the cost of water supply systems and account for required investments. The Department for Water 

Undertaking should reassess water pricing structures to ensure that prices are set at a level which 

encourages water conservation, reducing water wastage and demand. 

Medium Term Actions 

Develop computer models of groundwater flow to account for the impact of sea-level rise on 

groundwater levels: Numerical models of ground-water have been used elsewhere to establish how sealevel 

rise impacts on aquifer thickness and saline intrusion (e.g. Bobba, 2002). Due to the particular 

vulnerability of aquifers in the Turks and Caicos Islands, these models should be developed in order to 

effectively mitigate the effects of climate change on freshwater resources. Whereas the expertise for this 

recommendation may not be present within statutory bodies, this initiative may need to be contracted out 

by the Department of Water Undertaking to specialised consulting firms or the academic research 

fraternity. 

Increase water conservation measures, particularly in the tourism industry: In hotels, these measures 

should include the installation of low flush toilets, automated faucet controls in public facilities and aerated 

faucets in guest rooms, and low flow showerheads in bathrooms. Water saving technologies in the tourism 

sector should be encouraged (Climate Change Committee, 2011), including waste water recycling. 

Long Term Actions 

Assess the possibility of broad scale implementation of localised waste water recycling schemes and 

legislation, including for agricultural irrigation: Reducing the required fresh water for household and hotel 

use would alleviate pressure on groundwater systems. The country also engages in a number of activities 

that demand considerable quantities of water, for instance golf courses and the tourism industry 

particularly through cruise ships. Waste water from domestic and tourism use can be recycled to produce 

irrigation water, either for agriculture or the irrigation of golf courses. Key stakeholders from Government 

(the Department for Water Undertaking, Department of Tourism), the private sector (TSG Water, Turks and 

Caicos Hotel and Tourism Association) and the local community (Turks and Caicos Farmers and Community 

Association) can investigate this potential. Such an initiative would alleviate the pressure on groundwater 

resources and reduce the need for desalination 

Water infrastructure should be developed to increase access to sanitation facilities and safe water, and 

reduce vulnerability to climate variability and extreme events, including droughts and major storms or 

hurricanes: This will require the collaborative effort of government and private sector stakeholders 

involved in water resources, health and planning to ensure that: 

(i) water storage is encouraged through incentives and every new building has its own rain water 

harvesting and stored water infrastructure; encouragement should be given to retrofit these to 

existing properties which do not already have them (Byron, 2011); 

(ii) the viability of additional large public storage facilities be assessed, allowing improved access to 

potable water in different communities; 

(iii) losses in water distribution be reduced through pipe replacement, and monitored through the 

use of electronic bulk metering (Byron, 2011); and 

171

(iv) adequate desalination capacity during power outages be ensured by equipping plants with 

back-up power generators with a sufficient fuel supply, as recommended by (ECLAC, 2008) – 

see below. 

In addition, the implementation of measures to reduce flood risk are required. Infrastructure design should 

be improved to increase resilience to heavy rain events (Climate Change Committee, 2011). Storm water 

drainage capacity should be increased for susceptible areas such as South Caicos, after a full hydrological 

study (ECLAC, 2008). The possibility to develop systems which are able to more efficiently capture storm 

water runoff for use as a water resource should also be assessed. At risk facilities should be protected, such 

as the causeway between Middle Caicos and North Caicos, which needs an increase in its culvert flow 

capacity (ECLAC, 2008). 

Increase capacity of water desalination facilities and investigate the feasibility of alternative water 

generation technologies: Innovation in saltwater reverse osmosis desalination systems should be 

encouraged and electrical and renewable power (solar energy) water generation capacity be expanded 

(Byron, 2011). Investigate alternative water generation technologies such as atmospheric water generation 

(water-from-air) systems (see Wahlgren, 2001 and Wahlgren, 2008) demonstrates the feasibility for waterproducing 

greenhouses in Grand Turk, using seawater at 15°C drawn from around 500 m depth as a coolant 

for dehumidification, able to generate about 200,000 litres per day with about half used for irrigation of 

crops such as lettuce and strawberry and half able to be bottled for human consumption. 


Consistent with the issues and future directions outlined in the Energy Conservation Policy and 

Implementation Strategy for the Turks and Caicos Islands, the following section suggests some measures to 

reduce energy consumption and emissions in tourism. The Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands and 

other energy and tourism sector stakeholders such as the Provo Power Company, the Turks and Caicos 

Utilities Ltd. and the Turks and Caicos Hotel and Tourism Association will inevitably play crucial roles in the 

implementation of these measures. 


Actively pursue and implement national action plans: Once national policy goals have been agreed, the 

action plan to avoid energy use, increase efficiency, and to use a greater share of renewable energy sources 

needs to be implemented. This plan outlined by Castalia (2011) outlines the combination of savings 

potentials (energy management; cf. Gössling, 2010) and technological restructuring. Further to this, in 

consideration and pursuit of establishing renewable energy operations, valuable information on the 

potential of wind- and solar power can be found in Bishop and Amaratunga (2008), Chen et al. (1990), Chen 

et al. (1994), and Headley (1998). 


Stabilise energy pricing to influence energy use and emissions: Taxes, emission trading and other 

economic instruments are needed to steer energy use and emissions, conveying clear, long-term market 

signals. It is important for these economic instruments to significantly increase the costs of fossil fuels and 

emissions. Price levels also need to be progressive (increasing at a significant rate per year) and foreseeable 

(be implemented over longer time periods), to allow companies to integrate energy costs in long-term 

planning and decision-making. 

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Pursue the concept of a ‘Green Economy’: The benefits of these efforts will be immense: there is a very 

low likelihood of energy prices decreasing over the longer-term, and a very high likelihood that these will in 

fact increase. Building a green tourism economy is likely to lead to a renewed cycle of growth, while making 

the islands less dependent on imports of resources, and in particular oil. 



CARIBSAVE recommends as a first step the development of agricultural policies, plans, regulations or acts 

for sustainable agricultural development and food security in the Turks and Caicos Islands: An 

overarching policy framework would reinforce the proposed plans for improving agricultural production 

and will ensure a systematic approach to sustainable agricultural development. 

A second recommendation is a capacity building programme for existing and potential farmers featuring 

training on new agro-technologies, soil and water management, and climate change 

sensitivity/awareness: The Government demonstration farm at Kew can be used as a multi-purpose site 

for training and also for research to determine which crops can best be grown in Turks and Caicos and 

under what conditions. On-site experiments should incorporate organoponics, hydroponics, greenhouse 

and other technologies in collaboration with the farmers’ association and local schools and colleges. 



Build up a supply of public health resources for the surveillance, prevention and control of Vector Borne 

Diseases: Gubler (2002) has stated that the resurgence of diseases, and particularly vector borne diseases 

has been “compounded by complacency about infectious diseases in general and vector-borne diseases in 

particular, and a lack of public health resources for research, surveillance, prevention, and control 

programs.” Rawlins et al., (2008) have also made the salient point that it is “important for us to record in 

detail the Malaria situation in the Caribbean region, so that health decision makers may be aware of how 

acute the situation really is, and how much emphasis should be rightly placed at preventing the reoccurrence 

of the disease in the region”. As for other islands, it is therefore recommended that the 

Integrated Vector Management (IVM) Programme approach of the WHO be adopted. 

The principles of this approach which were taken from the Report of WHO consultation on IVM as listed as 

follows (WHO, 2007): 

Advocacy, social mobilization and legislation 

Collaboration within the health sector and with other sectors 

Integrated approach 

Evidence-based decision-making 

Capacity-building 

The Caribbean region, as part of the WHO Region of the Americas has the potential to chart a course that 

includes IVM in diseases that have a climate change signal. These include dengue fever and malaria to a 

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lesser extent in Turks and Caicos. In this region limited human capacity and attention to evaluation are two 

major challenges to the utilization of IVM. 

Improve the use of technology in the Health Sector: Two aspects of technology that can be developed in 

the Turks and Caicos Islands’ health sector involve vector borne diseases. An Early Disease Warning System 

that considers temperature signatures for vector borne diseases can be considered, however this must be 

validated (Chen, Chadee, & Rawlins, 2006) and be site-specific (Ebi, et al., 2006). Other signatures could be 

further researched such as the use of the pre-seasonal treatment (Chadee, 2009). This can be a practical 

way to execute effective disease control (Ebi, et al., 2006). 


Publications in academic journals and papers: Additionally, there is a need to further efforts to have data 

better analysed, peer reviewed and published. Thus, increased research of climate change related diseases, 

will enable validation of hypothesises related to epidemics and climatic variables. It would further 

encourage the development of a “culture” of systematic review and the conversion of knowledge into 

policy and planning. 


Medium to Long Term Actions 

Improve the management and resilience of fish sanctuaries and MPAs: The Government of the Turks and 

Caicos Islands has demonstrated its commitment to promoting the preservation and sustainable use of 

marine resources by the establishment of a number of MPAs across the islands. It is noted that 

management of MPAs in the Caribbean often suffer from a severe lack of funds. A needs assessment 

conducted by The Nature Conservancy showed a significant gap in available finances and finances required 

to meet the 2020 goal. Similarly, for instance, the Financial Needs Assessment conducted for the 

Sustainable Financing Plan for Jamaica’s System of Protected Areas 2010 - 2020 estimated that between US 

$267,000 and US $358,000 would be needed annually for the management of each sanctuary. 

In light of this challenge, a joint sustainable management and finance mechanism can establish a more 

effective fish sanctuary management and enforcement system for coastal communities and enhance the 

capacity of resource managers and users to be more resilient to climate change. The strategy or mechanism 

should seek to increase the involvement of the tourism sector (various hotels, the Turks and Caicos Hotel 

and Tourism Association) in collaboration with the Department for the Environment and Coastal Resources 

in supporting community-based MPAs. The strategy will not only promote sustainable management of the 

MPAs, but will also provide opportunities for alternative livelihoods and technologies for public education. 

Mangrove Restoration and Protection: The TCI Climate Change Green Paper identifies mangrove 

restoration as an adaptation strategy to improve coastal defence against rising sea level and storm surge 

impacts. Reforestation of the mangrove stands will also improve the health of fish nurseries and coral reefs 

thus benefitting the livelihoods of those engaged in marine-based activities. Proposed MPAs will benefit 

from the presence of mangrove trees, which filter pollutants and provide protection to fish and crustaceans 

allowing them to increase in size and abundance. However reforestation projects will not be effective if 

development projects are allowed to remove and damage mangrove stands. 

One method of mangrove reforestation which has proven successful in Belize is the Riley Encased 

Methodology (REM). The method, which uses a small PVC pipe to protect growing saplings, is relatively 

inexpensive, easily implemented and causes minimal disturbance to the environment. A Caribbean Coastal 

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Area Management Foundation (C-CAM) representative based in Jamaica is interested in exploring the 

option of using water-proofed paper tubing that will biodegrade over time. This adaptation from the REM 

methodology will save a step in the process since the piping will not have to be removed once the saplings 

have grown to reproductively mature trees. A natural alternative is the use of bamboo wave attenuators to 

protect developing saplings. 

Construct/restore Wastewater Wetland Treatment Systems (WWTS): As the tourism industry expands 

protecting the marine environment from sewage will become a greater challenge; TCI’s extensive wetlands 

are a means of addressing this issue and provide an opportunity to build the resilience of coral reefs. 

Wetlands naturally act as biofilters to remove contaminants from wastewater. A study on hotel sewage 

package treatment plants in Saint Lucia found that the highest quality effluent was at a wetland treatment 

system for a medium-sized hotel (UNEP, 1998). Sewage is first pre-treated with screening and settling. The 

wastewater then flows into a three-tiered, free-water-surface wetland system dug into a hill. The wetland 

effluent passes through a filter and then is disinfected with an ultraviolet lamp. WWTS are a low 

maintenance, low energy and cost effective alternative to conventional treatment options. They also 

provide aesthetic and habitat values. 

Priority sites for constructed/restored wetlands should include hotels and tourist related operations. This 

strategy provides opportunity to strengthen collaboration between the Departments of Tourism, 

Environment and Coastal Resources, Planning and Water Undertaking. Hotels that utilize the WWTS may 

benefit from gaining preferred status as eco-friendly establishments. 

Coral Reef Nurseries: Scientists have successfully grown corals in laboratories for many years. Such 

research has now made it possible for corals to be transplanted and regenerated in their natural 

environment. Given TCI’s commitment to using MPAs as tools for protecting marine ecosystems and the 

country’s experience with biorock and reef ball technology, coral reef nurseries may be established within 

well managed protected areas. Corals may then be transplanted onto healthy reefs. With further research 

it may be possible for coral to be transplanted around other islands in the Caribbean that do not have MPAs 

that are sufficiently managed to feasibly establish coral nurseries. 

The Department for the Environment and Coastal Resources can investigate the feasibility of implementing 

this activity. Understandably, training for staff and interested volunteers from the diving and recreational 

viewing community will be required. However, the increase in coral cover will increase habitat for fish 

providing benefits to both the fisheries and tourism industries. Resilient reefs will better withstand climate 

change impacts and provide better protection to coastlines from storm surge. By engaging fishers and 

volunteers from communities will fulfil two objectives: increasing education and awareness, and gaining 

public participation. 




Inventory existing coastal protection defences, as well as their design range and maintenance status: This 

analysis of the vulnerability of tourism infrastructure was hindered by inadequate data on existing coastal 

structures, their type, design specifications and expected lifetime. Future assessments of the costs and 

benefits of coastal protection require this information to provide a more accurate estimate of the resources 

required for SLR adaptation. 

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Conduct a thorough cost-benefit analysis of coastal protection at a local level: Cost-benefit analysis of 

coastal protection will be informed by the estimated cost of damage to specific infrastructure and 

properties. The specific location of infrastructure is important for estimating impacts to a high level of 

fidelity. Similarly, property values are highly dependent on exact location – for example in some areas the 

most expensive property values may be on the coast, whereas in others they may be located on a hillside. 

A detailed analysis of property prices by location is required as part of local level studies. The Government 

of the Turks and Caicos Islands, local resort owners, and local building authorities, are encouraged to 

collaborate with members of the research community to help develop a cost benefit analysis of coastal 

protection. In addition to refining estimates of costs to rebuild infrastructure (particularly in areas with 

high-density coastal development), there is an important need to investigate the response of international 

tourists and the private sector to the impacts of coastal erosion to test adaptation strategies in the tourism 

sector. By completing a cost-benefit analysis, decision makers will able to identify the best adaptation 

options to adopt and can begin to move forward in reducing the vulnerability of settlements and 

infrastructures in vulnerable areas. 


Complete a focused analysis of the vulnerability of secondary and tertiary economies to SLR and 

determine the economic impacts of these damages for the tourism sector. Tourism infrastructure is 

vulnerable in Turks and Caicos. With tourism contributing a large proportion to the national economy, the 

capacity of the economy to absorb and recover from proportionately higher economic losses in that sector 

is expected to be low. Determining the secondary and tertiary economic impacts of damages to the tourism 

sector and possible adaptation strategies for Turks and Caicos should be a priority for future research. This 

will enable the identification of the degree to which the economy of Turks and Caicos and its citizens are 

economically and socially vulnerable to SLR. In the event that this study finds tourism to be economically 

vulnerable to the impacts of SLR, then action plans could be developed to diversify the economy and 

provide training and tools to help workers transition to other sectors that may be less vulnerable. 

Assess the adaptive capacity of the tourism sector to SLR: Tourism is one of the most important sectors in 

Turks and Caicos. Given the close proximity of the tourism infrastructure to the coast, it is highly dependent 

on the attractiveness of the natural coastal environment, which has been shown to be vulnerable to SLR. 

More detailed analysis of the impacts of SLR for major tourism resorts, critical beach assets and supporting 

infrastructure (e.g. transportation networks) is needed to accurately assess the implications for inundation 

and erosion protection. A necessary part of this evaluation is to identify the land that can be used for 

tourism infrastructure and future development under a managed retreat response to SLR. 


Review and develop policies and legal framework to support coordinated retreat from high-risk coastal 

areas: The Government of Turks and Caicos must review existing policy and legal frameworks to assess the 

responsibilities of the state and landowners for the decommissioning of coastal properties damaged by the 

impacts of SLR. The government should also examine the use of adaptive development permits that will 

allow development based on current understanding of SLR, but stipulate the conditions for longer-term 

coastal retreat if sea level increases to a specified level. Current coastal set-back regulations need to be 

reassessed in light of new SLR projections to ensure that new developments are not built in vulnerable 

coastal areas. 

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Following the national review of progress on the HFA goals, the Department of Disaster Management and 

Emergencies has identified many strengths and weaknesses. The following recommendations are 

complementary to those in the HFA report and, in some cases, add further detail in an effort to enhance 

vulnerability and risk reduction efforts as well as permitting for effective climate change adaptation. 


Improve national level hydro-meteorological data availability through the creation of a National 

Meteorological Service which can collect, manage and update databases: There is no meteorological 

service available in TCI and so weather forecasts are provided by the Bahamas Meteorology Department. 

Data must be readily available to local decision makers and should not be left depending on diplomatic 

relations with other countries. Especially in emergency decision making, the availability of good data 

quickly is imperative to successful response. In addition, the inclusion of a long term record for 

meteorology data allows decision making to be based on the conditions and trends specific to TCI. The 

Department of Disaster Management and Emergencies has acknowledged this concern and cite that they 

hope to fully establish the TCI Meteorological and Hydrological Services Unit by 2010. As it creation could 

not be confirmed, it is strongly recommended that any remaining steps be completed now for the reasons 

listed. 

Conduct capacity building and technical training programs for the Department of Disaster Management 

and Emergencies employees so that the current technical deficiencies can be remedied and improved 

technical capacities can assist all those working in the realm of disaster management: The need for 

training of staff for the Meteorological and Hydrological Services Unit was revealed during this research. 

Efforts are being made to create a local Meteorological and Hydrological Services Unit that can help feed 

information on hazards into a more comprehensive hazard early warning system. To achieve CDEMA’s goals 

under the Comprehensive Disaster Management Strategy and Plan, the prioritisation of technical training 

within the Participating States’ disaster offices should also be a priority. Complementary skilled persons are 

therefore also needed in the Department for Disaster Management and Emergencies in order to ensure 

warning messages are effectively relayed to the general public. As a result of limited financial resources, it 

is recommended that partnerships with the private sector (tourism especially) are made since warning 

systems will improve everyone’s safety. A partnership where grant funding is provided for training of 

existing staff could be negotiated as mutually beneficial. However, the government restructuring activities 

currently taking place also provide good timing for advocacy of greater budgets for disaster risk reduction 

and climate change adaptation activities that demand technical capacities. Collaboration and 

communication with the Department of Surveys and Mapping should also be fostered as they are collecting 

and updating maps that can inform evacuation and shelter planning activities. 


Strategies are intended to contribute to development objectives (including poverty reduction) at all levels 

within the country, based on the Vulnerability and Adaptive Capacity assessments. More specifically, the 

strategies will address the following: 

1. Promotion of climate-resilient livelihoods strategies and capacity building for adaptive capacity and 

action planning; 

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2. Disaster risk reduction strategies to reduce the effects of climate-related impacts, particularly on 

vulnerable households and tourism-related livelihoods; 

3. Capacity development for local civil society and governmental institutions so that they can provide 

better support to communities, households and individuals in their adaptation efforts; and 

4. Advocacy and social mobilisation to address the underlying causes of vulnerability, such as poor 

governance, lack of control over resources, or limited access to basic services. 

During the consultations, community residents highlighted various strengths and gaps in their ability to 

adapt to climate change, and also put forward recommendations to increase their resilience. Many of these 

recommendations are inter-related, so that concerted effort on one area should have a positive feedback 

effect in other areas. 


Previously recommended research should be engaged or continued to determine reasons for specific 

gaps in community adaptive capacity. Community research highlighted several gaps in financial and social 

capital and information, including low financial reserves to allow for recovery following a natural disaster, 

low levels of household insurance against climate-related events, and limited involvement in community 

affairs or groups; that can otherwise significantly reduce the impacts of hazards on households and the 

community in general. Robinson (2007) suggested based on similar findings in his research that future 

investigations should seek to examine: 

Reasons for a lack of insured homes; 

Factors that drive the decision-making process with respect to disaster management; 

Preferred media for receiving information about natural hazards; and 

Ways to strengthen and improve the functioning of weak community groups/organisations 

The International Federation of the Red Cross has a strong history of effective work with community 

capacity building and disaster risk reduction activities. The Department for Disaster Management and 

Emergencies, by working with the Red Cross or other active civil society organisations, can develop a 

culturally appropriate communication plan that will not only communicate the vital information, but be in a 

format that individuals will listen to and take note of. Through the use of music or mobile phone 

technology, important information can reach a wide range of persons. 

These issues should be prioritized as research areas for consultants or tertiary level students to ultimately 

build the adaptive capacity and resilience of households and communities, and thereby reduce the amount 

of potential damage and loss that will be incurred by future extreme weather events. 


Investigate feasibility of establishing emergency and health services departments or units in the Lower 

Bight area to serve residents of the Bight and surrounding areas. Residents in the Lower Bight area have 

indicated a need for establishing units of emergency and health service providers in the community as they 

are currently none, and this significantly limits response time in the event of an emergency (caused by a 

natural hazard or otherwise) as well as access of the public to these services to seek assistance as 

necessary. Specifically, residents have recommended that the following establish a presence in the area: 

Fire Service 

Health Services: A clinic or sub-clinic with capacity for delivering emergency care 

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The Fire Service is government-run, but clinics may be either public or private entities. Given the need of 

these services in the community, the potential benefits to residents, and fitting within the broader scope of 

national disaster and emergency management, strong consideration should be given to examining the 

feasibility of establishing these services within the community. 

Establish an official hurricane shelter in the Lower Bight area, and improve the structural integrity of 

buildings that are used as provisional shelters. Strong and durable public buildings are normally used as 

provisional hurricane shelters in the event that members of the public feel unsafe in their own dwellings 

and wish to take shelter elsewhere. This is especially the case with low- to middle-income households 

whose housing structures are perceptibly less able to withstand physical hurricane impacts. In the Bight, 

churches and schools are normally used as provisional shelters. Although they provide a temporary space 

for residents during and shortly after the passage of a tropical storm or hurricane, and persons are 

encouraged to travel with the supplies they will need, a number of provisional shelters can still be 

structurally unsound and inadequate to meet certain needs, and this is especially the case for gendersensitive 

needs (e.g. – privacy for pregnant or nursing women, the needs of physically challenged members 

of the community). Residents in the area have recommended that a dedicated hurricane shelter be 

erected, built to withstand the impacts of major hurricanes, and which caters to the basic needs of gender 

and the physically challenged. This building can also serve dually as a community centre outside of the 

hurricane season, and during the hurricane season when no immediate storm threat exists. 

Revisit and prioritize previous plans for the protection of groundwater wells. Groundwater is an 

important resource, but relatively scarce in the Turks and Caicos Islands. Most of the water supplied to the 

public is provided through desalination. However, there are a number of groundwater wells in 

Providenciales, which are the main source of water for squatter and impoverished households that are 

unable to pay for access to the public supply. These wells are mostly uncovered and unprotected, and 

concerns have been raised about the possibility of contamination of the groundwater sourced from wells as 

a result of sedimentation, flooding and other water-related hazards. 

The consumption of contaminated water poses a major health risk to the households that depend on 

freshwater from wells, and communicable conditions can possibly be transferred to other communities or 

people outside of the squatter community as well, with national-level health implications. Catchments 

should be managed sustainably to maintain water flow and quality, particularly wetlands, floodplains and 

upslope contributing areas. This should include revegetation of hillslopes and the implementation of a 

comprehensive programme for the conservation and restoration of forests, to reduce erosion, protect 

water quality and regulate flows (Climate Change Committee, 2011). Additionally, it was reported that the 

Government of the Turks and Caicos Islands previously proposed to cover existing active freshwater wells 

to protect the wells and groundwater while not in use. It is recommended that this plan or activity be 

revisited and prioritize in light of the health risks posed. 

Identify opportunities for community level disaster mitigation activities that can be implemented 

through collaboration between the Department for Disaster Management and Emergencies, the subnational 

disaster committees and local communities. Community-based disaster management groups or 

organisations can be effective mechanisms for engaging and directing entire communities in all stages of 

disaster management: preparation, mitigation, response and recovery; and acting as a liaison body 

between national emergency and disaster management entities and the community. A network of 

organisations with responsibility for disaster management at the community level is becoming a popular 

strategy amongst Caribbean Islands, and has been highly recognised on previous occasions for quick 

response and efforts in minimising hazard impacts at the community level, thereby reducing the demand 

and strain on national response resources. 

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Community disaster groups have been established in different locations across the Turks and Caicos Islands. 

Reportedly, there is no formal multi-hazard warning or advisory service within the Lower Bight community. 

However, the Department for Disaster Management and Emergencies is currently in the process of 

establishing a community-based disaster management team within the community. Based on the findings 

of the household surveys, perceived financial security is limited, there appears to be minimal social 

networking, and very few of the people surveyed have insurance protection against climate-related events, 

which makes them even more vulnerable to the impacts of these events and climate change. 

The establishment of the disaster group in Lower Bight will help build community cohesion, while at the 

same time increasing the community’s resilience to climate and weather-related hazards. Relationships can 

be built with other organizations such as the Turks and Caicos Red Cross Society (one unit is based in 

Providenciales) and emergency service providers to facilitate training and education activities. Further to 

this, a needs assessment should be undertaken to determine resource gaps in the community and funding 

sought to support community level disaster mitigation initiatives. These might take the form of treeplanting 

on unstable slopes, construction of gabion walls, clearing of drains, development of early warning 

systems and evacuation planning. Outside of government support, the community can explore options 

from non-governmental and international aid organisations which sponsor overall community development 

programmes. 

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7. CONCLUSION 

7.1. Climate Modelling 

Recent and future changes in climate in TCI have been explored using a combination of observations and 

climate model projections. Whilst this information can provide us with some very useful indications of the 

changes to the characteristics of regional climate that we might expect under a warmer global climate, we 

must interpret this information with due attention to its limitations. 

Limited spatial and temporal coverage restricts the deductions we can make regarding the changes 

that have already occurred. Those trends that might be inferred from a relatively short 

observational record may not be representative of a longer term trend, particularly where interannual 

or multi-year variability is high. Gridded datasets, from which we make our estimates of 

country-scale observed changes, are particularly sparse in their coverage over much of the 

Caribbean, because spatial averages draw on data from only a very small number of local stations 

combined with information from more remote stations. 

Whilst climate models have demonstrable skill in reproducing the large-scale characteristics of the 

global climate dynamics, there remain substantial deficiencies that arise from limitations in 

resolution imposed by available computing power, and deficiencies in scientific understanding of 

some processes. Uncertainty margins increase as we move from continental/regional scale to the 

local scale as we have in these studies. The limitations of climate models have been discussed in 

the context of tropical storms/hurricanes, and SLR in the earlier sections of this report. Other key 

deficiencies in climate models that will also have implications for this work include: 

Difficulties in reproducing the characteristics of the El Niño – Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 

which exerts an influence of the inter-annual and multi-year variability in climate in the 

Caribbean, and on the occurrence of tropical storm and hurricanes. 

Deficiencies in reliably simulating tropical precipitation, particularly the position of the 

Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which drives the seasonal rainfalls in the tropics. 

Limited spatial resolution restricts the representation of many of the smaller Caribbean 

Islands, even in the relatively high resolution Regional Climate Models. 

We use a combination of GCM and RCM projections in the investigations of climate change for a country 

and at a destination in order to make use of the information about uncertainty that we can gain from a 

multi-model ensemble together with the higher-resolution simulations that are only currently available 

from two sets of model simulations. Further information about model uncertainty at the local level might 

be drawn if additional regional model simulations based on a range of differing GCMs and RCMs were 

generated for the Caribbean region in the future. 


The Turks and Caicos Islands are an archipelago consisting of numerous limestone islands and can be 

considered a water scarce country (DEPS, 2007b): the high porosity of the soils and the small size (total size: 

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430 km 2 ) of these islands results in limited surface water resources (Bennett et al., 2002). The tourism 

sector places one of the greatest demands on water resources and sewerage facilities in Turks and Caicos 

(Bennett et al., 2002). The Turk Islands in the southeast receive low annual rainfall of 533 mm; the north 

west of the group nearly double this amount of rainfall is received (Kairi Consultants Limited, 2000a). Water 

is typically sourced from reverse osmosis desalination of brackish underground water on populated islands 

(DEPS, 2007b), while on less populated islands, household water catchment systems which harvest 

rainwater or from fresh water lenses beneath some of the islands (ECLAC, 2008). Water demand is rising 

with increasing development, and improvements in technology and operational efficiency have led to an 

increasing number of private desalination plants (DEPS, 2007b). Many homes have sizeable cisterns to store 

water that may be replenished either from rainwater or via truck borne water supplies (Kairi Consultants 

Limited, 2000a), and form the most common source of water for much of TCI (ECLAC, 2008). 

Climate change is likely to put stress on existing water infrastructure, with an inadequate maintenance of 

aging water production and delivery systems leaving them vulnerable; coastal erosion and flooding has 

already damaged water infrastructure (Byron, 2011). Water resources in the Turks and Caicos Islands are 

limited, consisting of rainfall, saline water and scarce ground water supplies which have had problems with 

contamination (Bennett et al., 2002). Occasional droughts and water shortages occur in most islands 

(Byron, 2011). Changes in rainfall patterns may lead to a decrease in fresh water availability and more 

frequent and severe droughts, leading to a loss of crops and livestock. As a result, it is likely that the island 

will increase the dependency on desalinated water, leading to an increase in the cost of water supply 

(Climate Change Committee, 2011). Drought conditions will also affect the ability of the country to harvest 

rainwater (Byron, 2011). Among the damages that sea level rise may cause are the loss of agricultural land 

and coastal fresh water resources through erosion, and salt water intrusion into aquifers (Climate Change 

Committee, 2011). Sea level rise may also result in damage to infrastructure associated with desalination 

infrastructure (Byron, 2011). 

An investment of US $23.6M in water and wastewater is planned between 2008 and 2017 as part of the 

National Socio-economic Development Strategy, with the bulk of the investment (US $19M) beginning in 

2014 (DEPS, 2007a). The institutional and regulatory framework for water management in the Turks and 

Caicos Islands is limited to water supply management and, to a much lesser extent, wastewater 

management; water demand management, water supply planning, protection of underground water 

quality and the monitoring and regulation of desalination are all lacking (DEPS, 2007b). The National Socioeconomic 

Development Strategy aims to address these deficiencies and deliver a sustainable water supply, 

as well as addressing previously neglected aspects of water resources management (DEPS, 2007b). 

The following recommendations are made: 

1. Assess the possibility of broad scale implementation of localised waste water recycling schemes 

and legislation, including for agricultural irrigation. 

2. Develop computer models of groundwater flow to account for the impact of sea-level rise on 

groundwater levels. 

3. Water infrastructure should be developed to increase access to sanitation facilities and safe water 

and reduce vulnerability to climate variability and extreme events including droughts and major 

storms or hurricanes. 

4. Undertake public education in water resources. 

5. Develop measures to protect aquifers from surface contamination and protect water quality. 

6. Reassess water pricing structures to ensure that the full cost of water is charged. 

7. Increase water conservation measures, particularly in the tourism industry. 

8. Increase capacity of water desalination facilities and investigate the feasibility of alternative water 

generation technologies. 

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There can be little doubt that tourism is an important and growing energy-consuming sector in the 

Caribbean. If this growth continues, vulnerabilities associated with higher energy prices as well as global 

climate policy will grow concomitantly. 

Any Caribbean nation’s ambition should thus be to reduce its energy use and to increasingly use renewable 

energy produced in the region. In practice, this appears to be hampered by the lack of detailed databases 

on energy use by sub-sectors, which is a precondition for restructuring energy systems. To this end, Francis 

et al. (2007: 1,231) suggest that: 

Finally, given the absence of a more detailed database on energy consumption and GDP in Haiti, 

Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago, further research can be directed at two important issues. 

First, with wider data on energy consumption and GDP (total and sectoral), a decomposition 

analysis could be undertaken, which can add value by identifying the main drivers, a useful 

approach to the formulation of effective policies. 

These insights also apply for other islands. While an energy and emissions database would thus be 

paramount to the understanding, monitoring and strategic reduction of greenhouse gases, it also appears 

clear that energy demand in all islands could be substantially reduced at no cost, simply because the 

tourism sector in particular is wasteful of energy, and because carbon management allows for the 

restructuring of markets. Furthermore, technological options to develop renewable energy sources exist, 

and can be backed up financially by involving carbon markets as well as voluntary payments by tourists. In 

order to move the tourism sector forward to make use of these potentials, it appears essential that policy 

frameworks focusing on regulation, market-based instruments and incentives be implemented. 


The state of agriculture and food security in Turks and Caicos as they relate to climate change revolves 

around several key priorities which include: 

Developing an agricultural sector 

Building local farmers’ capacity to increase food production under existing climatic conditions 

There is a need for a clear policy for agricultural development in the islands with a focus on North and 

Middle Caicos which offer the most suitable conditions for food production. 


The vulnerabilities of the health sector to climate include weather related morbidity and mortality and 

diseases that are affected by changes in temperature and rainfall patterns. A number of emerging and reemerging 

communicable diseases such as malaria, dengue and influenza present lingering threats to the 

health sector of the Turks and Caicos Islands. Based on a combination of hard data and grey data used to 

inform the vulnerability and adaptive capacity sections of this report it is very difficult to make definitive 

statements about the Health Sector of the Turks and Caicos Islands. However, the data suggests a number 

of trends which include that the population is vulnerable in a number of ways, most notably to vector 

borne diseases, potable and accessible water supply related issues and the spread of acute respiratory 

infections. It is further evident that these factors can have an impact on other sectors, most notably the 

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tourism and agriculture. While Turks and Caicos has been classified as an middle-upper income group 

country the recent impacts of the 2008 hurricane season and the global economic recession have all 

contributed to the weakening of the economy. This is likely to affect the social structure of the territory, 

altering the percentage of the poor and possibly increasing the percentage of vulnerable persons in society. 

However, the territory’s Draft Climate Change Policy addresses the main needs of the health care sector 

and may be sufficient given the current low incidence of most communicable diseases in the territory. 

Nonetheless the impact of climate change on health in the Turks and Caicos Islands should be addressed 

aggressively due to the higher cost of health care and the dependence on overseas health care institutions. 

Further research of the association of disease incidence (e.g. acute respiratory infections and 

gastrointestinal diseases) and other sectors such as tourism and water should be undertaken. This will 

benefit the economy and society of the Turks and Caicos through increasing the country’s resilience to the 

impacts of climate change and offering better adaption options. Increased research and validation of data 

for example with diseases of low prevalence such as malaria should be given greater attention in their 

infancy with respect to their threat to national health. Such research will pave the way for a sound platform 

from which to inform policy and planning for the future as the climate changes. 


The biodiversity and fisheries of the Turks and Caicos form the foundation of its economy and provide 

numerous goods and services to the population. The coral reefs, white sand beaches and extensive 

wetlands that have earned the Islands the reputation of “Beautiful by Nature” are highly vulnerable to 

climate change due to their inherently fragile character and the various environmental threats brought on 

by a booming tourism industry. Like many small island developing states, TCI is challenged to address gaps 

in environmental management because of insufficient finances and a lack of available technical and human 

capacity. The islands have generally demonstrated a positive response towards addressing biodiversity 

issues through environmental policies that are geared towards sustainable natural resource use and 

integration of tourism and other economic sectors into environmental management. Education on 

environmental issues, public participation and co-management are also promoted by the Ministry of 

Natural Resources. It can be expected therefore that with an intensified education and awareness 

campaign geared towards climate change sensitization, and its pending impacts on biodiversity, that the 

responsible agencies will take more rapid action to ensure completion of outstanding projects, programmes 

and policy amendments for climate change adaptation, such as those outlined in the TCI Climate Change 

Green Paper. 

A joint public sector-private sector-community approach towards fish sanctuaries and MPA management 

can serve as a catalyst in the paradigm shift from a business as usual approach to biodiversity consumption 

to that of an eco-system based approach to adaptation. Along with the existing Conservation Fund, it could 

provide the additional financial resources that will be needed as the country attempts to improve on 

Protected Area management and expands coverage of MPAs. It is an opportunity to harness the evident 

willingness of communities, the private sector and the Government of TCI to conserve its biodiversity, and 

it is also an opportunity to channel the particular interests of these stakeholders towards achieving a 

common goal and resolving common conflicts among resource users. Strengthening the adaptive capacity 

of the country’s ecosystems in the face of climate change can only be achieved within the context of 

collaboration. Ultimately, sustainable use and effective management of the islands’ biodiversity and 

fisheries lies within the hands of its people; the CARIBSAVE Partnership is an impartial agent that can serve 

as mediator between various stakeholders and provide the framework within which the adaptive process 

may be executed. 

184



With its development along the coast and reliance on coastal resources, the tourism sector in Turks and 

Caicos is vulnerable to climate change and SLR. Tourism, a very large and important sector of the economy, 

is also the key activity taking place in the island’s coastal areas. Given the importance of tourism, Turks and 

Caicos will be particularly affected with annual costs as a direct result of SLR. If further action is not taken 

to, the current and projected vulnerabilities of the tourism sector to SLR, including coastal inundation and 

increased beach erosion, will result in significant economic losses for the country and its people. 

Adaptations to minimize the vulnerabilities of the Turks and Caicos will require revisions to development 

plans and major investment and policy decisions. These considerations must be based on the best available 

information regarding the specific coastal infrastructure and ecosystem resources along the coast, in 

addition to the resulting economic and non-market impacts. Decisions regarding where retreat policies 

should be implemented versus what should be protected needs to be a priority if Turks and Caicos is to 

help curb development in vulnerable areas and protect vulnerable tourism assets. 

The Government of the Turks and Caicos needs to implement policies to regulate coastal development and 

to identify and inventory vulnerabilities of coastal lands and infrastructure to weather and climate related 

hazards. This work needs to be advanced to include in greater detail the implications of and application of 

climate change adaptation measures and strategies, to ensure that coastal resources and infrastructure of 

Turks and Caicos do not suffer from the consequences of SLR. Continued development and an increasing 

reliance on the tourism sector will only magnify the vulnerabilities faced, placing additional assets and 

people at risk, while simultaneously raising the damage estimates and the costs to protect the coastline. It 

is vital to recognize the vulnerabilities from current SLR and SLR-induced erosion, as well as to anticipate 

and prepare for future SLR implications. There is a need for serious, comprehensive and urgent action to be 

continually taken to address the challenges of adapting to SLR in Turks and Caicos. 


The Turks and Caicos Islands are vulnerable to a number of natural hazards and the most significant threat 

comes from hydro-meteorological hazards. The low-lying, limestone islands are prone to flooding during 

heavy rainfall events and climate change projections indicate that extreme rainfall events are likely to 

become more severe in some seasons. In addition, the impacts of high winds from tropical storms have 

impacted TCI with some regularity because of their location in the Atlantic Hurricane Belt. Therefore, both 

the residents and tourists are vulnerable to losses and damages, especially those persons and structures in 

coastal areas. Disaster management efforts are needed to reduce these risks and to build a culture of 

resilience and awareness across the islands. 

The Department for Disaster Management and Emergencies has adopted the International Strategy for 

Disaster Reduction (ISDR), Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) in order to address a growing concern over 

the vulnerability of people and settlements. The recent evaluation of progress on the HFA goals cites 

financial and human resource constraints as prominent challenges, although some success has been seen in 

the areas of monitoring and enforcement of physical planning regulations and the creation of a climate 

change policy and strategy. Progress in public education and awareness building is an area that needs 

further attention including the creation of a website for the Department of Disaster Management and 

Emergencies. Despite some limitations, efforts to create policies and enforce regulations that relate to 

185

public safety and the environment are evident, demonstrating concern and dedication to the ever-present 

risk from natural hazards, disasters and the changing climate. 


It is well documented, that women and men are differently affected by the effects of climate variability and 

change. Reasons include the different responsibilities men and women assume in relation to care work, 

income generating work, as well as their different levels of dependency on natural resources, knowledge 

and capacities to cope with the effects because of differences in the access to education and information 

systems. 

Major elements of vulnerability were highlighted during research. Tourism is a significant component of the 

local economy and directly or indirectly supports the employment of several residents. Generally, all 

residents in all economic brackets are affected by hurricanes and tropical storms. Residents who work for 

minimal pay are dually affected: (i) dealing with damage and losses at the household level; and (ii) being 

unable to work for their regular income because of disruption of operations at the workplace or lack of 

customers to fuel business operations. 

Tourism facilities located on the beach are prone to storm surge events and coastal flooding impacts and 

community residents working in fisheries are also vulnerable to storm surge impacts, if they own a boat. 

Depending on the severity of weather, tourism facilities may remain closed for a short or long period of 

time to conduct repairs, and staff will be out of work for that period, with the possibility of reduced 

income. A fisherman’s boat is a crucial asset of his livelihoods, and damage or destruction to the boat will 

be crippling. Although agriculture is practised on a very minor scale, farmers, like fishermen, are some of 

the most vulnerable residents who stand to lose crops and soil during a hurricane. 

Residents who are better off financially are, of course, more able to absorb the impacts of hurricanes and 

rebound quickly. The vulnerability of women and men, based on community perspectives, is multi-faced 

but suggests that both groups are vulnerable in different ways based on their perceptions of risk, state-ofmind 

and level of responsibility within the household. Women and men who are heads of a household, 

with a number of dependent relatives (children, elderly) have to bear all of the responsibility for disaster 

preparation and recovery for the entire household, which places a tremendous strain on them. 

186

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