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The future of Russian oil exploration

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Exploring<br />

new frontiers<br />

Russia is washed by 13 inland and open<br />

seas, with the area <strong>of</strong> the shelf and<br />

continental slope totaling 6.2 million square<br />

kilometers. Twenty major <strong>oil</strong> and gas<br />

provinces and basins have been discovered<br />

on the <strong>Russian</strong> shelf, 10 <strong>of</strong> which have<br />

proved <strong>oil</strong> and gas reserves (the largest<br />

Arctic sedimentary basins are the East<br />

Barents, South Kara, Laptev, East Siberian<br />

and Chukchi basins).<br />

<strong>The</strong> initial recoverable resources <strong>of</strong> the<br />

<strong>Russian</strong> shelf are reported to reach<br />

100 billion tons <strong>of</strong> <strong>oil</strong> equivalent, including<br />

13 billion tons <strong>of</strong> <strong>oil</strong> and 87 trillion cubic<br />

0°<br />

NM1<br />

NM2<br />

BP1<br />

meters <strong>of</strong> gas, accounting for 22%–27%<br />

<strong>of</strong> the World Ocean’s total <strong>of</strong>fshore<br />

hydrocarbon resources. 3 It is noteworthy<br />

that around 75% <strong>of</strong> Russia’s total <strong>of</strong>fshore<br />

resources are located in Arctic regions with<br />

severe weather conditions and poorly<br />

developed infrastructure. In 2008, the U.S.<br />

Geological Survey (USGS) completed an<br />

assessment <strong>of</strong> undiscovered conventional<br />

<strong>oil</strong> and gas resources in all areas north <strong>of</strong><br />

the Arctic Circle. According to this study,<br />

these are predominantly natural gas<br />

resources (over 75%).<br />

Map showing prospective <strong>oil</strong> areas north <strong>of</strong> the Arctic Circle<br />

Source: USGS<br />

BP2<br />

EGR4<br />

EBB2<br />

EBB1<br />

MZB1 TPB1<br />

TPB2<br />

EGR1<br />

NGS2<br />

TPB3<br />

NZAA1<br />

8 <strong>The</strong> <strong>future</strong> <strong>of</strong> <strong>Russian</strong> <strong>oil</strong> <strong>exploration</strong> Beyond 2025<br />

EB2<br />

WSB2<br />

EBB3<br />

WSB1<br />

EB3<br />

NKB1<br />

90°<br />

LM2<br />

YK2<br />

TUN1<br />

EB4<br />

LM2<br />

EB1<br />

NWLS1<br />

YK1<br />

LM1<br />

LA1<br />

LSS1<br />

LA2<br />

LA3<br />

LM3<br />

LSS3<br />

LSS2<br />

LV1<br />

CB1<br />

Another study, by Wood Mackenzie and<br />

Fugro-Robertson, dedicated to the<br />

assessment <strong>of</strong> the Arctic’s hydrocarbon<br />

potential (Future <strong>of</strong> the Arctic, 2009)<br />

found that gas resources predominate<br />

over <strong>oil</strong> in much <strong>of</strong> the Arctic basin. Gas<br />

accounts for 85% <strong>of</strong> the Arctic’s discovered<br />

resources and 74% <strong>of</strong> its <strong>exploration</strong><br />

potential. Consequently, estimates<br />

regarding <strong>future</strong> <strong>oil</strong>-production levels may<br />

be based on the assumption that Russia’s<br />

Arctic regions contain recoverable <strong>oil</strong><br />

reserves <strong>of</strong> 2 billion–4 billion tons.<br />

ESS1<br />

Arctic Circle<br />

NCWF1<br />

VLK1<br />

AA1<br />

ZB1<br />

LS1<br />

HB1<br />

Undiscovered <strong>oil</strong> (billion tons)<br />

>1,350<br />

0,135 — 1,350<br />

0,014 — 0, 135<br />

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