TBR News August 18, 2008

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TBRNews.org http://blog.lege.net/content/TheVoiceOfTheWhiteHouse20080818.html In 2005, the Georgian army was openly involved in large-scale training for integrated infantry, armored, artillery and air support operations which would appear to have had no other possible purpose but the retaking of the breakaway provinces by military force. The significant buildup of firepower, so tragically demonstrated by the Georgians’ wanton destruction of the capital of South Ossetia, Tskhinvali, and vastly increased ammunition stocks and logistic support, allowed the Russian GRU (military intelligence) to draw the right conclusions. Saakashvili would use force, only the timing remained uncertain. It is significant that the United States was fully aware of the risk of conflict. The American Foreign Policy Council in Washington in its Russia Reform Monitor reported on July 11: Russia has admitted its fighter jets overflew the breakaway Georgian territory of South Ossetia in a sortie that took place just hours before US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Tbilisi with a message of support ... Speaking in the Georgian capital on July 10, Rice said Russia needs "to be part of resolving the problem ... and not contributing to it." However, she also said she had told Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili that "there should not be violence". On July 12: ... Georgian media have been reporting an alleged Russian Defense Ministry plan to storm the Kodori Gorge in the breakaway Georgian republic of Abkhazia, to which Russia plans to respond by publishing details of alleged Georgian plans to launch a military incursion into South Ossetia. On July 15" Last week, Georgia recalled its ambassador in Moscow to protest the Russian overflights, while Russia said they were aimed at preventing Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili from launching a military operation against the separatist South Ossetia region. So by the beginning of August, the Russian intelligence services had a fair idea of both Georgia’s intentions and its likely tactics, but still no firm evidence of timing. A week of war The Russian 58th Army with its headquarters in Vladikavkaz was on alert and responded reasonably quickly and effectively to the Georgian invasion of South Ossetia on August 6 and 7. The use of massive artillery and multiple rocket barrages against the largely open and undefended city of Tskhinvali has been well documented, though little hard evidence has emerged of ether ethnic cleansing or genocide by either side elsewhere in this conflict. However, the violent Russian response left no one in any doubt as to the outcome. Supported by attack aircraft and helicopters from the 4th Air Army, units of the 58th Army of the North Caucasian Military district, including elements of the 20th Guards, 19th and 42nd Motor Rifle Divisions, swept down into South Ossetia. They succeeded in first blocking the Georgian advance north and then quickly pushed them into a humiliating retreat back across the border and eventually out of the town of Gori, the birthplace of Josef Stalin. They were further supported by units of the Russian 76th and 98th Airborne Divisions and the 45th Independent (Spetsnaz -) reconnaissance regiment from the Moscow Military District, who reinforced both South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Within a matter of days, virtually the entire Georgian command and control system had been severely degraded, along with radar stations, air defense and what remained of the air force at bases such as Alekseevka and Marneuli. Georgian army infantry units including the First Brigade from Gori, supported by the T72-equipped Independent Tank Battalion and probably reinforced by elements of the Fourth Brigade from Vaziani, were quickly routed or ordered to withdraw to save 10 of 24 08/19/08 13:13
TBRNews.org http://blog.lege.net/content/TheVoiceOfTheWhiteHouse20080818.html what remained of their fighting capability for the possible defense of Tbilisi. The Second Brigade at Senaki appears not to have put up a fight when a column of Russian troops on a short-lived punitive raid pushed deep into Georgia from Abkhazia on August 11. Russian special forces are also reported to have made limited incursions into the ports of Poti and Batumi without significant interference from the Georgian armed forces. By August 12, large parts of the Georgian armed forces had ceased to operate or lacked any central command and coordination. Georgia had effectively been defeated within six days and without any of its Western allies doing more than resorting to pointless rhetoric. Continuing Russian military action would seem to concentrate on destroying the surviving Georgian military infrastructure around the borders of South Ossetia and perhaps Abkhazia, including the well-defended artillery positions that had allowed the Georgians to heavily shell Tskhinvali. A new cold war? Illusions of any certainty of Western military support have been shattered, and probably for the foreseeable future. The benefits of the increasingly close diplomatic, economic and military relationship with the US, North Atlantic Treaty Organization and European Union may now be called into question by many of the former communist states and some old ties may now be restored as the only likely guarantee of regional security. This indeed could turn out to be a defining moment in the post-Cold War world, with a redrawing of lines of influence and a reassertion of national interests. It is a lesson the Kremlin will sincerely hope has been taken to heart by many of its former allies. The best that can probably be rescued from the Georgia crisis is to make it blatantly clear to Moscow that the West will react more positively in the event of a similar situation developing over, for instance, the largely Russian population of the Crimea. It is a potentially massive problem for the incoming US administration next year, and it is to be hoped that a calm and measured response from Washington may prove to be decisive in preventing the major powers from sliding back into a chillier and increasingly dangerous relationship Richard M Bennett, intelligence and security consultant, AFI Research. Six days that broke one country - and reshaped the world order August 16, 2008 by Ian Traynor The Guardian Pity Georgia’s bedraggled First Infantry Brigade. And its Second. And its hapless Navy. For the past few evenings in the foothills of the Southern Caucasus on the outskirts of Joseph Stalin’s hometown of Gori, reconnaissance units of Russia’s 58th Army have been raking through the spoils of war at what was the Georgian Army’s pride and joy, a shiny new military base inaugurated only last January for the First Infantry, the Army Engineers, and an Artillery Brigade. A couple of hours to the west, in the town of Senaki, it’s the same picture. A flagship military base, home to the Second Infantry Brigade, is in Russian hands. And down on the Black Sea coast, the radars and installations for Georgia’s sole naval base at Poti have been scrupulously pinpointed by the Russians and destroyed. Gori and Senaki are not ramshackle relics of the old Red Army of the type that litter the landscape of eastern Europe. "These bases have only recently been upgraded to NATO standard," said Matthew Clements, Eurasia analyst at Jane’s Information Group. "They have been operationally targeted to seriously degrade the Georgian military." "There is a presence of our armed forces near Gori and Senaki. We make no secret of it," said the general staff in Moscow. "They are there to defuse an enormous arsenal of weapons and military hardware which have been discovered in the vicinity of Gori and Senaki without any 11 of 24 08/19/08 13:13
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TBR News August 18, 2008

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