The Heart of the Matter Valerie M. Hudson, - MIT Press Journals

forms the other explanatory variables. In the fourth possible comparison (level
of democracy/physical security of women in reference to SOCIC), the pseudo
R-squareds are too close to represent a meaningful difference, though technically
the pseudo R-squared for the physical security of women measure is
higher than that for level of democracy.
Multivariate regression allows us to control for the alternative independent
variables. Although space does not permit all three tables of multivariate results
to be displayed, the appendix presents the multivariate regression of GPI
on all four independent variables. In this analysis, the best signiªcant discrimination
is also obtained with the PSOW scale, as compared with the other three
variables (see appendix). Especially noteworthy in the multivariate analysis is
that the discrimination afforded by PSOW dwarfs that provided by level of
democracy.
These results indicate that if a scholar or policymaker had to select one
variable—level of democracy, level of wealth, prevalence of Islamic culture, or
the physical security of women—to assist them in predicting which states
would be the least peaceful or of the most concern to the international community
or have the worst relations with their neighbors, they would do best by
choosing the measure of the physical security of women.
Conclusion
The Heart of the Matter 41
We ªnd conventional empirical warrant for hypotheses linking the security of
women and the security of states. There is a strong and statistically signiªcant
relationship between the physical security of women and three measures capturing
the relative peacefulness of states. Furthermore, in comparative testing
with other conventional explanatory factors assumed to be related to such
measures of state security—factors including level of democracy, level of
wealth, and prevalence of Islamic civilization—the physical security of women
explains more of the variance in the same three measures of state security in
both bivariate and multivariate analysis. We hasten to add that we view these
results as a preliminary excursion into a methodologically conventional research
agenda linking the security of women and the security of states. Much
more in the way of empirical analysis must be performed before these results
can be considered authoritative; in addition, we believe that unconventional
methodologies also offer important insights that must not be overlooked in the
quest for conventional warrant. Nevertheless, even in preliminary form, these
are challenging and provocative results.