Book of Abstracts - Eea-esem.com

WLPH SDWK
$QQH /DXUH %DOGL
)2580 8QLYHUVLW\ RI 3DULV 1DQWHUUH
),;(' (;&+$1*( 5$7( 5(*,0(6 $1' 1$7,21$/ 35,&( /(9(/6
(9,'(1&( )520 /$7,1 $0(5,&$1 &28175,(6
.H\ZRUGV DV\PHWULF LQIRUPDWLRQ PRQHWDU\ SROLF\ DQG SULFH OHYHO
-(/ &ODVVLILFDWLRQ ' ( DQG (
7KLV SDSHU H[DPLQHV WKH HIIHFWV RI IL[HG H[FKDQJH UDWH UHJLPH RQ WKH EHKDYLRU RI WKH UHDO
H[FKDQJH UDWH WDNHQ DV WKH UHODWLYH SULFH RI QRQWUDGDEOH 1 7 JRRGV LQ WHUPV RI WUDGDEOHV
7 :H GHYHORS D VLPSOH PRGHO RI D VPDOO RSHQ HFRQRP\ SURGXFLQJ 7 DQG 1 7 JRRGV
ZLWK D PRQRSROLVWLF FRPSHWLWLRQ j OD 'L[LW 6WLJOLW] DQG D VWLFN\ LQIRUPDWLRQ FRQWH[W
0DQNLZ DQG 5HLVV LQ WKH 1 7 VHFWRU DQG SUHVHQW HPSLULFDO HYLGHQFH IRU WKUHH /DWLQ
$PHULFDQ FRXQWULHV 7KH HYLGHQFH VXSSRUWV WKH SUHGLFWLRQV RI WKH PRGHO QDPHO\ WKDW
SHJJLQJ WKH QRPLQDO H[FKDQJH UDWH DIWHU D SHULRG RI FRQWLQXRXV QRPLQDO GHSUHFLDWLRQV
PDNHV WKH UHODWLYH SULFH UDWLR RYHUVKRRW IURP LWV ORQJ WHUP YDOXH
),1$1&,$/ 0$5.(76 3267(5
&DWHJRU\ (($
&KDLUSHUVRQ
0DWHL 'HPHWUHVFX
7HFKQLVFKH 8QLYHUVLWlW 'DUPVWDGW
$XJ
81&(57$,17< $1' /,48,',7< ,1 25'(5 '5,9(1 0$5.(76
.H\ZRUGV /LTXLGLW\ 3ULFH LPSDFW 7LPH RI GD\ HIIHFWV DQG 8QFHUWDLQW\
-(/ &ODVVLILFDWLRQ *
7KH PRUH OLTXLG D ILQDQFLDO PDUNHW LV WKH FORVHU LW LV WR D
SHUIHFW PDUNHW 2QH RI WKH PHDVXUHV RI OLTXLGLW\ WKH SULFH LPSDFW
RI ODUJH RUGHUV KDV EHHQ REVHUYHG WR IROORZ FHUWDLQ SDWWHUQV
WKURXJKRXW WKH GD\ :H SURSRVH D PRGHO WKDW H[SODLQV LWV
GHFUHDVLQJ VKDSH GXULQJ WKH GD\ IRU RUGHU GULYHQ PDUNHWV E\
FRQVLGHULQJ WKH OLNHOLKRRG RI WKH DUULYDO RI SULFH UHOHYDQW
LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG LWV HIIHFWV RQ WKH ULVN DGMXVWPHQW RI WKH WUDGHUV
0DWKLDV 'UHKPDQQ
%DQN RI (QJODQG
&R $XWKRUV - 2HFKVVOHU DQG $ 5RLGHU
5RRP 3