Introduction - FiFo Ost

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Economic summary 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 est. proj. 1600 1200 800 400 100 1000 10 500 0 -500 -1000 -1500 -2000 0 GDP % change Consumer prices Annual average, % change ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 est. proj. -2500 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 est. proj. 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 Current account US$ millions Total FDI US$ millions, cash receipts, net 0 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 est. proj. Source: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Croatia, January 2001 4 Croatia Investment Profile Croatia's economy is estimated to have grown by 3.5 per cent in 2000 based on good export performance and tourism growth. The country's prime economic concerns are budgetary imbalances and slow structural changes in the enterprise sector. However, the agreement in principal with the IMF on a Stand-by facility and the adoption of a tighter budget for the year 2001, revised at the request of the IMF, have significantly improved the prospects for achieving long-term sustainability. The Croatian economic climate is also likely to benefit from the revitalised privatisation process and an expected increase in FDI inflows in 2001. GDP growth After experiencing a slight recession in 1998 and 1999, a solid economic recovery began in 2000, when the economy grew by 3.5 per cent. Impetus for the growth came from tourism, which was quick to recover from the impact of the Kosovo war, and also from growing industrial production driven by export demand from EU markets. GDP growth is projected to reach 4 per cent in 2001. The expected slowdown in the EU export markets and the capping of fiscal expenditures required by the IMF are the factors that will restrict growth. Increased foreign direct investment and the continuing good performance of the tourism sector are expected to partly offset the slowdown in demand. Inflation In the last few years, inflation has been gradually declining as a result of tight monetary policy pursued by Croatia. However, in 2000, a minor one-off rise in the inflation rate was registered as annual average retail prices increased by 6.2 per cent as opposed to 4.2 per cent in 1999. A combination of rising oil prices, increases in excise duty and electricity prices are responsible for the change. For 2001, inflation is likely to decelerate as oil prices will ease and cuts to tariffs required by Croatia's accession to the WTO will reduce the cost of imported goods. Current account Croatia's current account deficit peaked in 1997, due to a trade deficit of more than US$ 5 billion. Subsequently, the current account deficit showed a downward trend, and narrowed from US$ 1,523 million in 1999 to US$ 880 million in 2000. Recovering tourism revenues and good export performance boosted by robust growth in the EU economies are the underlying reasons for the improving current account balance. The country's external position is expected to remain relatively unchanged in 2001, when a US$ 930 million deficit is forecasted. The tourism sector is expected to register steady growth, with receipts forecast to reach US$ 3.2 billion. Trade performance is also expected to improve on the basis of reciprocal trade concessions with the EU in the framework of an Association Agreement due to be signed in 2001. However, this will be partly offset by domestic consumer and investment spending as economic growth picks up. FDI and privatisation Croatia Bosnia- Herzegovina In Croatia, FDI has been favourable in comparison with other peer countries. However, there are indications that the investment climate has been gradually improving, as evidenced by higher inflows of direct investments not associated with privatisation. A majority of FDI until recently, Italy Austria Slovenia Adriatic Sea Hungary Yugoslavia
<strong>Introduction</strong> has been related to large privatisation deals and in coming years, the Croatian government intends to accelerate the privatisation process by offering a large number of state-owned shares in the telecom, energy, insurance, banking, tourism, shipbuilding and transport sectors. The record year in terms of net FDI inflows so far was 1999, when US$ 850 million was received for the sale of Hrvatske Telekomunikacije. The net FDI receipts dropped in 2000 and are forecasted to increase significantly in 2001. Greenfield investments are also expected to pick up due to the current upswing in the economic cycle, the recovery in tourism and increased political stability. The country is also expected to sign an Association Agreement with the EU, which will increase the attractiveness of Croatia for foreign investors. (See Investment climate below.) Government balance The fiscal deficit deteriorated sharply in the last two years from 0.4 per cent of GDP in 1998 to 6.2 per cent in 1999 and 6.7 per cent in 2000. Increased expenditures in public sector wage rises are the main reasons for the deterioration. However, important progress has been made in the clearance of government arrears. Pension liabilities have been clarified and payments to insured depositors in the bankrupt banks were made. Accordingly, total arrears in the economy declined from the peak of HRK 26 billion at the end of 1999 (20 per cent of GDP) to below HRK 20.2 billion (12.8 per cent of GDP) by the end of 2000. In order to secure the IMF Stand-by Agreement, the government has significantly revised its budget proposal, reducing the planned expenditures by US$ 296 million. The revised budget forecasts a deficit of 5.3 per cent of GDP for 2001. Keeping public sector wage rises at bay will be one of the most important challenges for the government in achieving the fiscal deficit target. The majority of the financing of the deficit is planned by privatisation receipts, with the bulk of the proceeds likely to come from Hrvatske Telekomunikacije. Selected economic indicators Economic summary 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000. 2001 est. proj. GDP (% change) -8.0 5.9 6.8 6.0 6.5 2.5 0.4 3.5 4.0 Consumer prices (annual average % change) 1,518 97.6 2.0 3.5 3.6 5.7 4.2 6.2 6.3 Current account (in US$ millions) 606 826 -1,451 -1,148 -2,343 -1,550 -1,523 -880 -930 General government balance (% of GDP) -0.8 1.2 -1.4 -1.0 -1.4 -0.4 -6.2 -6.7 -5.3 Trade balance (in US$ millions) -742 -1,172 -3,267 -3,690 -5,224 -4,169 -3,302 -3,357 -3,616 Total FDI (in US$ millions, cash receipts, net) 120 117 114 509 533 923 1,439 760 700 External debt stock (US$ millions) 2,638 3,020 3,809 5,308 7,452 9,588 9,764 10,200 10,500 Unemployment (% of labour force) 14.8 14.5 14.5 10.0 9.9 11.4 13.6 na na Exchange rate, annual average, kuna per US$ Gross reserves, excluding gold 3.6 6.0 5.2 5.4 6.2 6.4 7.1 8.3 8.5 (end-year, US$ millions) 616 1,405 1,895 2,314 2,539 2,816 3,025 3,337 na Source: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Croatia, January 2001 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 General government balance % of GDP -7 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 est. proj. Source: Ministry of Finance of the Republic of Croatia, January 2001 Croatia Investment Profile 5
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