Lyons, G. (1998) An assessment of teleworking as a practice for ...

TELEWORKING AND
TRAVEL DEMAND
extent to which it is practised. However,
estimates of current levels of telecommuting are
compounded by the di€ering de®nitions associated
with limited sources of available statistics.
Predictions of future levels have been
`primarily based on hypothetical scenarios
embodying a range of assumptions about future
adoption'. 5 Consequently, there are a number of
con¯icting estimates and predictions. However,
further to a recent report for the UK Government,
18 additional questions have now been
added to its Labour Force Survey. The spring
1997 survey 19 estimates that there are 987 000
homeworkers in Great Britain, representing 4%
of total employment. The survey's de®nition of
a homeworker was an individual who worked at
least one full day at home in the reference week.
The survey noted that one-third of employed
teleworkers are in the service industries of
banking, ®nance and insurance.
12. This raises the issue of what percentage
of total employment has the potential to adopt
telecommuting. Manufacturing industry in particular
is unlikely to respond to the same extent
as the service industries. Thirty-four per cent of
major employers approached for possible participation
in the ENTRANCE trial considered
that their organization was not suitable for
teleworking. The extent to which such organizations
were incompatible with teleworking is
unclear. From reasons given for non-participation
it appears that in some cases incompatibility
is not absolute and a more adaptive and
¯exible approach to new working practices
such as teleworking could enable the new
working practices to be used. Nonetheless, the
penetration of teleworking into the workforce
will be limited. It has been estimated 9 that 40%
of US workers are potentially telecommuters.
13. The diculty in obtaining accurate
estimates of the extent of homeworking is also
compounded by the issue of unocial homeworkers.
These are individuals who either do
not wish to formalize their homeworking or are
unaware that they are practising telecommuting.
Sixty-two per cent of the ENTRANCE trial
participants had worked at home for at least a
week during the year prior to joining the trial.
14. The magnitude of travel demand
impacts, at an aggregate level, is a product of
the number of individuals who are telecommuters
and the frequency with which they telecommute.
Hence, using ®gures quoted earlier, if
4% of the workforce are homeworkers but they
only work at home for 1´2 days per week on
average, then less than 1% of the workforce, on
average, are working from home on a given
day.
15. Given that the travel demand bene®ts of
existing telecommuting have already been realized
and absorbed by continued trac growth,
it is the potential to increase future adoption
levels that must be of importance to policymakers.
Early forecasts assumed adoption
levels would be driven by developments and
availability of information technology (IT).
Successive forecasts have become more moderated
with a realization that human behaviour is
the primary driver 20 andthat`thespreadof
telework was going to be more evolutionary
than revolutionary'. 21 One of the most important
obstacles to adoption of telecommuting in
1985 was the high IT cost. Nine years later this
had dropped in importance to be replaced by
the diculty in managing from a distance and
inadequate knowledge of what telework really
is. 22 Awareness and an informed understanding
of what telecommuting is and the bene®ts and
disbene®ts in terms of lifestyle and working
practice that it can o€er, must be key factors in
promoting its adoption. Prior to teleworking,
only 15% of ENTRANCE trial participants
believed there to be no disbene®ts from homeworking.
Having experienced homeworking,
this ®gure doubled to over 30% and all but one
of the participants wished to continue homeworking
once the trial ended. Education and
awareness for both employers and employees
must be encouraged.
Travel demand impacts
16. An optimistic scenario for the UK is that
greater use of telecommunications and teleservices
could cut projected growth in congestion
23 by about 70%. 24 Contrasting views,
however, demonstrate the lack of consensus.
Mokhtarian 10 now believes that teleservices
will not achieve sizeable reductions in travel
and that transportation and telecommunications
will act largely as complements to each other
and not as substitutes. The Institution of Civil
Engineers is also cautious about the scale of
travel demand impacts derived from teleworking.
25 It notes that non-work journeys concerning
leisure, holidays or visiting friends account
for two-thirds of personal travel and an even
greater proportion of the projected growth in
travel demand. Such viewpoints draw upon
issues concerning both adoption levels and
travel demand impacts.
17. The principal impact of telecommuting
in travel demand terms is the removal, or in the
case of telecottages, reduction in length, of
commuting. However, there are a number of
potential secondary impacts that may o€set this
primary bene®t. The need to recognize and
understand these impacts has given rise to a
number of detailed transport-related studies
such as the ENTRANCE trial. Table 2 compares
some key ®gures for the trial sample with
corresponding national ®gures.
18. It is widely recognized that early adopters
of telecommuting tend to have longer
commuting distances. 11,16,28
``If telecommuting is attractive primarily to long-
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