part iv additional documents from xxx atcm - Antarctic Treaty ...

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IV. ADDITIONAL DOCUMENTS points is enclosed. Further information about the Antarctic Treaty is also available on the Antarctic Treaty Secretariat website (www.ats.aq). Yours faithfully (signed) Dr U.R. Rao Chairman XXX Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting Cc: National Contact Points ATCPs NCPs Antarctic Treaty Secretariat 398
ANNEX H The SCAR Lecture Climate Change and the Antarctic: What Next? Chris Rapley, President of SCAR, gave the SCAR Lecture. Earth’s atmosphere, ocean, ice, biosphere, humans and solid earth interact through multiple interconnections, some highly nonlinear, and operate at a vast spread of spatial and temporal scales. Thus, understanding Earth processes poses a considerable scientific challenge. We have to take a "systems" view and consider the planet as a whole. International cooperation and coordination are essential. Humans now constitute a force at the global scale. The product of burning fossil fuels is an increased loading of carbon in the atmosphere as the "greenhouse gas" carbon dioxide. The increase is dramatic. Annual human emissions of carbon rose from a few million metric tons in 1850 to 7 Gigatons (GtC) today (the CO 2 tonnage is 3.67 times greater), with total of 500GtC of carbon emitted. There is more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere than at any time over the past 860k years. It enhances the natural "Greenhouse Effect", which keeps the planet warmer than it would otherwise be by around 30 o C. As a result the land surface has warmed by 0.7 o C since 1900. The polar regions have warmed by up to 5 times the average because melting snow and ice expose rock and water, which absorb radiation and so amplify warming. Warming of the Antarctic Peninsula over the last 40 years has pushed nearly 90% of the glaciers into retreat. Surface melting on ice shelves has caused water to pour down through cracks, damaging their structure and making them collapse. Collapsing ice shelves free formerly dammed glaciers, which now flow faster. A warming ocean is making the grounding line retreat in West Antarctica, which may result in a complete discharge of ice there. "How Much?" and "How Quickly?" The answer depends on knowing how water at the glacier bed will affect glacier flows. Current numerical models of ice sheets are inadequate to predict the speed or nature of such discharges. Ice cores show that when the world was warmer, sea levels rose. The potential sea level rise from the ice sheets on Greenland is 7m and on West Antarctica is 5-6m. The rate of sealevel rise increased from 20cm/century to 30cm/century in the last decade. During the past 10,000 years it reached 1m/ century; sometimes faster. This, plus evidence for higher sealevels in the last interglacial, suggests what might be possible in a warmer world. The IPY will address the contribution to sea level rise of the major ice sheets. Future sea level rise may affect the lives of millions and massively damage infrastructure. Many scientists think we should stabilise the CO 2 concentration of the atmosphere at 450ppm by adopting technological solutions like carbon sequestration and by adding no more CO 2 . Leaving this later rather than sooner makes it harder and potentially much more costly. "Business As Usual" will not do. The challenge is unprecedented. Leadership is required. The Antarctic Treaty system arguably provides an excellent starting point and example of intelligent co-operation for the global common good. 399
Page 1: PART IV ADDITIONAL DOCUMENTS FROM X
Page 5: ANNEX H Letter to the Government of
Page 11: ANNEX I Message from ATCM XXX to St
Page 15: ANNEX J Preliminary Agenda of ATCM
Page 19 and 20: Working Papers Number Title E F R S
Page 21 and 22: WORKING PAPERS Number Title E F R S
Page 23 and 24: WORKING PAPERS Number Title E F R S
Page 25 and 26: Information Papers Number Title E F
Page 27 and 28: INFORMATION PAPERS Number Title E F
Page 37: Secretariat Papers Number Title E F
Page 41 and 42: Participants: Consultative Parties
Page 43 and 44: CONSULTATIVE PARTIES Delegation Con
Page 45 and 46: CONSULTATIVE PARTIES Delegation Con
Page 47 and 48: Participants: Non-Consultative Part
Page 49 and 50: Participants: Observers Delegation
Page 51: Participants: Secretariat Delegatio
Page 55 and 56: Consultative Parties PARTY Rec. XII
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CONSULTATIVE PARTIES PARTY Rec. XII
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Page 63 and 64:
Non-Consultative Parties PARTY AUST
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NON-CONSULTATIVE PARTIES PARTY VENE
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Observers ORGANISATION CCAMLR COMNA
Page 69 and 70:
Experts ORGANISATION ACAP ASOC IAAT
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