Potential Impact of the Gulf Oil Spill on Tourism - US Travel ...
Potential Impact of the Gulf Oil Spill on Tourism - US Travel ...
Potential Impact of the Gulf Oil Spill on Tourism - US Travel ...
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<str<strong>on</strong>g>Potential</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Impact</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Gulf</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Oil</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Spill</str<strong>on</strong>g> <strong>on</strong> <strong>Tourism</strong><br />
Prepared for <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> U.S. <strong>Travel</strong> Associati<strong>on</strong><br />
4 What is <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Outlook for Recovery?<br />
Estimating <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> eventual impact <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> spill <strong>on</strong> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> tourism ec<strong>on</strong>omies <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> <str<strong>on</strong>g>Gulf</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
faces several uncertainties. In order to begin to assess <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> durati<strong>on</strong> and extent <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> impact, ranges must be established for <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g>se variables. We note four critical<br />
uncertainties below as well as <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> most likely outcome for each.<br />
4.1 Has <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> flow <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> new oil been permanently halted?<br />
At <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> time <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> writing, a cap has successfully stopped <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> flow <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> oil for three<br />
days. This is clearly encouraging, but <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> risk <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> additi<strong>on</strong>al oil flowing into <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g><br />
<str<strong>on</strong>g>Gulf</str<strong>on</strong>g> remains.<br />
4.2 Where will <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> oil flow?<br />
Somewhere between 100 milli<strong>on</strong> and 184 milli<strong>on</strong> gall<strong>on</strong>s <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> crude has spilled.<br />
Projecti<strong>on</strong>s indicate it could show up as far west as Corpus Christi, Texas, or as<br />
far north as North Carolina's Outer Banks. The most widely accepted forecasts<br />
are being c<strong>on</strong>ducted by The Nati<strong>on</strong>al Oceanic and Atmospheric Administrati<strong>on</strong><br />
(NOAA) which has used computer models to estimate <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> likelihood <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> various<br />
oil flow scenarios:<br />
• The coastlines from <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Mississippi River Delta to <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> western<br />
panhandle <str<strong>on</strong>g>of</str<strong>on</strong>g> Florida: 81-100 percent oil probability<br />
• Texas: low probability (less than 1 percent in <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> south to 40<br />
percent near <str<strong>on</strong>g>the</str<strong>on</strong>g> Louisiana border)<br />
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