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Zimbabwe independent august 1 to 7, 2014 13<br />
analysis<br />
Grace factor rocks Mujuru camp<br />
Herbert Moyo<br />
FIRST Lady Grace Mugabe’s entrance into<br />
Zanu PF politics as the party’s Women’s<br />
League boss has shaken Vice-President<br />
Joice Mujuru’s camp, which seemed to have<br />
taken a lead in the race to succeed President<br />
Robert Mugabe.<br />
Mujuru seemed to have outmanoeuvred<br />
her arch-rival, Justice minister Emmerson<br />
Mnangagwa at district and provincial levels<br />
across the country ahead of the party’s<br />
youth and women’s leagues congresses this<br />
month, to be followed by an elective congress<br />
in December.<br />
Mujuru and her allies must have been<br />
shocked by sensational political developments<br />
last weekend when the Women’s<br />
League proposed Mugabe appoints her into<br />
the politburo as secretary for women’s affairs<br />
in December.<br />
The vice-president probably never saw it<br />
coming — especially at a time when it appeared<br />
that all her ducks were in a row to<br />
ensure she succeeds Mugabe at the helm of<br />
the party and government.<br />
Grace’s unexpected entrance into Zanu<br />
PF politics changes the succession matrix in<br />
the party, which had up to now mostly pitted<br />
Mujuru against Mnangagwa as the two<br />
leading contenders for the presidency.<br />
Mujuru’s strategic position in the party<br />
appeared to favour her ascension to the<br />
leadership of the party.<br />
Zanu PF recently announced rules and<br />
regulations for election, requiring a minimum<br />
of 15 years uninterrupted service to<br />
the party as prerequisites for candidates<br />
vying for the central committee and Women’s<br />
League, which disqualified many in<br />
Mnangagwa’s camp but fortified Mujuru’s<br />
hold on critical party structures.<br />
Those in Mnangagwa’s camp who stand<br />
disqualified include chairpersons who<br />
were suspended from the party in the aftermath<br />
of the 2004 Tsholotsho declaration<br />
which sought to elevate Mnangagwa to the<br />
vice-presidency.<br />
However, the advent of Grace, who celebrated<br />
her 49 th birthday last week, changes<br />
the dynamics of the succession matrix<br />
in Zanu PF, considering that the Women’s<br />
League has been powerful in influencing<br />
critical decisions in the party including elevating<br />
Mujuru to the vice presidency ahead<br />
of Mnangagwa who was a shoe-in after securing<br />
the support of six out of 10 provinces<br />
in 2004.<br />
Mujuru was absent when the party’s<br />
Women’s League from all provinces converged<br />
at Grace’s farm in Mazowe on Friday<br />
and unanimously resolved to endorse<br />
her to take over from Oppah Muchinguri as<br />
leader of the organ — a development which<br />
will also secure her ticket to the politburo<br />
if adopted by Mugabe. The official explanation<br />
was that Mujuru does not have to attend<br />
meetings of a party organ.<br />
Since the meeting in Mazowe was attended<br />
by women from both factions, could this<br />
mean that the so-called Mugabe faction was<br />
now coming out of its shell?<br />
What implications does this have on<br />
Mugabe’s successor considering what the<br />
president said in April when he revealed<br />
that the race was not just between Mujuru<br />
and Mnangagwa.<br />
Mugabe told a gathering of his Gushungo<br />
kinsmen in his rural Zvimba district on<br />
April 4: “In many provinces we hear of divisions<br />
along factional lines. It is said Mai Mujuru<br />
and Minister Mnangagwa are aspiring<br />
for the presidency. People will choose who<br />
they want. It is not just these two.”<br />
He repeated this later that month telling<br />
Ghanaian-born British film-maker<br />
Roy Agyemang, “I have people in mind<br />
who would want to be. But I have looked<br />
at them. I have not come to any conclusion<br />
as to which one, really, should be. I leave it<br />
to the choice of people. Perhaps when we<br />
get close to the election I will have some in<br />
mind.”<br />
At 49, Grace has age on her side and could<br />
well be preparing to succeed her husband<br />
who is 90 years and cannot go beyond 2023<br />
because of a two-term limit imposed by the<br />
new constitution.<br />
But it remains to be seen how she could<br />
possibly achieve this given her relative lack<br />
of political experience.<br />
First Lady Grace Mugabe’s entrance into politics changes the succession matrix in Zanu PF<br />
Vice-President Joice Mujuru’s camp has been shaken by the Zanu PF Women’s League’s unanimous resolution to elevate Grace<br />
However, even if she may not be aspiring<br />
for the highest office, Grace will certainly<br />
become an important power broker who<br />
has to be courted by whoever wants to succeed<br />
Mugabe.<br />
Political analyst Godwin Phiri said: “It is<br />
unlikely that she (Grace) will succeed her<br />
husband but given her marital status and<br />
the fact of leading the Women’s League she<br />
immediately becomes a key power broker.”<br />
“While others need meetings to influence<br />
the president she has uninterrupted<br />
access. The factions will have to engage her<br />
to improve their chances of succeeding the<br />
president.”<br />
Viewed from that perspective, it may be<br />
that the Mnangagwa faction has stolen a<br />
march on rivals given Muchinguri’s key role<br />
in Grace’s endorsement last week.<br />
Not only was Muchinguri present at the<br />
event, the nation was informed that she<br />
voluntarily gave up her position to accommodate<br />
Grace before proceeding to milk the<br />
event to the fullest to denigrate her faction’s<br />
rivals.<br />
“Vamwe vaivhoterwa mumabhawa vachitenga<br />
vanhu Mhai (Some were buying votes in bars,<br />
they looked for hecklers to denigrate genuine<br />
cadres),” Muchinguri said of the provincial<br />
elections that catapulted seven Mujuru<br />
loyalists to power.<br />
While it is tempting to think that because<br />
Muchinguri is a Mnangagwa loyalist therefore<br />
her actions are all premised on ensuring<br />
he sneaks in ahead of Mujuru, the Zanu<br />
PF internal politics is more complex than<br />
that and as suggested by another analyst<br />
Dumisani Nkomo, Muchinguri may well be<br />
nursing ambitions of her own.<br />
“The question to ask is whether Oppah is<br />
doing this not as a Mnangagwa but a Mugabe<br />
loyalist doing the president’s bidding, helping<br />
place the president’s wife in a strategic<br />
position in order to secure family interests<br />
after his departure,” said Nkomo.<br />
“Could it be that she is doing this with the<br />
understanding of the Mugabes that she and<br />
her co-workers will get their rewards from<br />
the old man if they deliver for his family? If<br />
so, this would seem a faster way for Oppah<br />
of accessing her desired political objective<br />
than working through Mnangagwa since in<br />
this instance she is dealing directly with the<br />
power broker in Zanu PF, Mugabe himself.”<br />
Nkomo may well be right given that allegiances<br />
have been shifting within Zanu PF<br />
on the basis of whom between Mujuru and<br />
Mnangagwa appears to have the upper hand<br />
at any particular time.<br />
Beyond the higher aspirations of succeeding<br />
to the national leadership, it may<br />
be that Grace’s entry into politics may have<br />
been motivated by the more mundane need<br />
for self-preservation.<br />
The First Family has extensive business<br />
interests in farming, dairy and possibly in<br />
the mining sector too — all of which may<br />
need to be protected from retribution which<br />
has been known to occur whenever there is<br />
a new political dispensation.<br />
In Zambia, former President Frederick<br />
Chiluba suffered the indignity of having his<br />
wealth investigated and appearing in court<br />
after Levy Mwanawasa took over as president.<br />
This may be something that Grace<br />
wants to prevent from happening to her and<br />
her family after Mugabe’s departure.<br />
“It is clear that Mugabe is looking to put in<br />
place structures and people that will protect<br />
his legacy and these are people he can trust<br />
— especially his wife,” said Brian Raftopolous,<br />
a political analyst.<br />
While Grace’s real motives are still under<br />
scrutiny, the reality is that her entry into<br />
the political arena will only serve up more<br />
twists and turns to the high drama of the<br />
Zanu PF succession.