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The Standard

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Business<br />

<strong>The</strong> <strong>Standard</strong> September 21 to 27 2014 19<br />

Debt stands<br />

in the way<br />

of Zim-China<br />

courtship<br />

Could China be tightening its funding<br />

requirements for its ally of over 34 years? If that<br />

is the case, what could be the next source of<br />

funding for the country?<br />

in the<br />

money<br />

with NESBERt RUwO<br />

In my last week column, I<br />

highlighted that there is a<br />

“beauty contest” for international<br />

capital. <strong>The</strong> RBZ, in<br />

its July 2014 monetary policy<br />

statement, states that on “a cumulative<br />

basis, and compared to other<br />

countries in the region, Zimbabwe’s<br />

foreign direct investment inflows<br />

amounted to US$1,7 billion<br />

over the period 1980 to 2013, whereas,<br />

Zambia and Mozambique received<br />

US$7,7 billion and US$15,8<br />

billion, respectively. Of the total<br />

of US$25,2 billion received between<br />

the three countries since<br />

1980, Zimbabwe has accounted for<br />

a mere 7% which underpins the<br />

“need for the country to create an<br />

investor-friendly environment” to<br />

tap into international capital targeting<br />

African opportunities. China<br />

has been one of the key investors<br />

with a keen interest on investments<br />

in Zimbabwe. But with<br />

Chinese looking for a “financing<br />

channel of reciprocity” with Zimbabwe,<br />

the financial relationship<br />

between the two could be in a process<br />

of being redefined.<br />

Zimbabwe’s relationship with<br />

China dates back to the 1970s<br />

when China supported the liberation<br />

war. <strong>The</strong> Chinese support<br />

for Zimbabwe became more pronounced<br />

as Zimbabwe became<br />

isolated by the western world<br />

through sanctions. In response to<br />

the sanctions by the west, Zimbabwe<br />

adopted a “Look East Policy”<br />

in the early 2000s, which saw Harare<br />

strengthening its ties with<br />

countries like China and Malaysia.<br />

A lot of transactions have<br />

been concluded between China<br />

and Zimbabwe, with Zimbabwe<br />

importing goods ranging from<br />

military, agriculture equipment<br />

to basic goods, while China has<br />

been interested in Zimbabwe’s<br />

mineral resources, particularly<br />

platinum. Zimbabwe holds the<br />

second largest platinum reserves<br />

in the world after South Africa.<br />

China has also invested in other<br />

sectors like energy generation<br />

and water supply.<br />

while there has been increased<br />

investments by the East, Zimbabwe<br />

still requires US$27 billion to<br />

fund its Zim Asset, a national fiveyear<br />

plan to improve basic services<br />

and rebuild the country. <strong>The</strong><br />

country will be looking towards<br />

China (among other funders)<br />

to bankroll this plan, but China<br />

wants Zimbabwe to use its mineral<br />

earnings to guarantee its funding,<br />

showing that the future of<br />

Chinese funding is underpinned<br />

by national income generating capacity.<br />

That is akin to cash flows<br />

in project finance.<br />

<strong>The</strong> Zimbabwe presidential<br />

delegation was in China in August<br />

in a bid to unlock “more Chinese<br />

enterprises to invest and<br />

more Chinese tourists to travel<br />

in Zimbabwe”. A number of<br />

agreements meant to strengthen<br />

the relationship between the<br />

two countries were signed. <strong>The</strong>se<br />

will see increased cooperation<br />

between the two, with China supporting<br />

the economic development<br />

of Zimbabwe in the areas<br />

of industrial zone development,<br />

infrastructure, mining and agriculture.<br />

However, China points<br />

out the need to “discuss with<br />

Zimbabwe the co-operation pattern<br />

and financing channel of<br />

reciprocity and mutual benefit”,<br />

implying that tangible numbers<br />

were not penned down.<br />

Could China be tightening its<br />

funding requirements for its<br />

ally of over 34 years? If that is<br />

the case, what could be the next<br />

source of funding for the country?<br />

Look back west? Maybe not<br />

in the near future.<br />

Zimbabwe, however, resumed<br />

engaging the IMF in 2013 after<br />

a decade of non-engagement. A<br />

team of IMF staff is expected in<br />

Harare this month to assess progress<br />

on the Staff-Monitored Programme<br />

(SMP). IMF insists that<br />

Harare pays it’s debt in arrears<br />

before any further loans can be<br />

granted. In its July 2014 country<br />

report on Zimbabwe, IMF estimates<br />

that the country’s external<br />

debt at end-2014, will stand at<br />

US$12,8 billion (94,5% of GDP)<br />

of which US$5,6 billion is in arrears.<br />

That external debt is projected<br />

to grow to US$22,5 billion<br />

(122% of GDP) by 2019. That is<br />

staggering!<br />

within a month of the President’s<br />

visit to China, Russia sent<br />

its Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov<br />

to Harare with a view to<br />

strengthen “bilateral trade-andeconomic<br />

and investment cooperation,<br />

primarily in the fields of<br />

mining, geological prospecting,<br />

energy, agriculture, infrastruc-<br />

Power station . . . China has already committed to funding a power generation project in Kariba<br />

ture construction, and tourism”<br />

but eyeing Zimbabwe’s platinum<br />

reserves through the US$3 billion<br />

Darwendale Comprehensive Development<br />

Project, as platinum<br />

“will be the driving force behind<br />

all bilateral trade, economic and<br />

investment relations”.<br />

with the President holding the<br />

vice-chair position and eligible for<br />

the rotating African Union chairmanship<br />

in 2015, and currently<br />

being the Sadc chairman, this<br />

could be the opportunity for China<br />

to work with Zimbabwe to push<br />

for “the new type of China-Africa<br />

strategic partnership to a new<br />

level”. Ironically, Russia sees the<br />

same, that Zimbabwe enjoys “a<br />

high level of authority” in African<br />

affairs. It’s obvious that China and<br />

Russia have found some “beauty”<br />

in Zimbabwe, but beauty is in the<br />

eye of the beholder.<br />

• Nesbert Ruwo is a Zimbabwean-born<br />

investment banker<br />

currently based in South Africa.<br />

He can be contacted on<br />

nesr@opportunvest.co.za<br />

PROCUREMENT NOTICE<br />

Russia’s Foreign minister Sergev Lavrov.<br />

Picture: Aaron Ufumeli<br />

<strong>The</strong> United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) would like to solicit bids from qualified<br />

entities for the Supply and Delivery of the following financed through a grant from <strong>The</strong> Global<br />

Fund, To Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM);<br />

Invitation to Bid Reference Number: ITB-ZIM-GF-031-2014 Designing and Printing of<br />

Forms and Registers<br />

<strong>The</strong> programme is implemented by UNDP Zimbabwe Office in collaboration with the Ministry<br />

of Health and Child Care in Zimbabwe.<br />

Interested potential bidders should download the detailed ITB documents on:<br />

http://www.undp.org.zw/about-undp/work-with-us/procurement;<br />

http://procurement-notices-admin.undp.org/;<br />

https://www.ungm.org/Public/Notice<br />

for their further action and submission of bid by 2 nd October 2014 no later than 1300 hours.<br />

Hand delivered, sealed envelopes to be submitted at UNDP Zimbabwe, Tender Box in Block 7,<br />

Arundel Office Park, Norfolk Road, Mt Pleasant, Harare<br />

Please note that this advert is not to be construed in any way as an offer to contract with your<br />

firm. Furthermore, UNDP reserves the right to reject part or all of the proposals.<br />

Block 10, Arundel Office Park, Norfolk Road, Mt Pleasant, P O Box 4775, Harare, Zimbabwe<br />

Tel: (263 4) 338836-44; Fax: (263 4) 338294; Email: Registry@undp.org

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