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Business<br />
<strong>The</strong> <strong>Standard</strong> September 21 to 27 2014 19<br />
Debt stands<br />
in the way<br />
of Zim-China<br />
courtship<br />
Could China be tightening its funding<br />
requirements for its ally of over 34 years? If that<br />
is the case, what could be the next source of<br />
funding for the country?<br />
in the<br />
money<br />
with NESBERt RUwO<br />
In my last week column, I<br />
highlighted that there is a<br />
“beauty contest” for international<br />
capital. <strong>The</strong> RBZ, in<br />
its July 2014 monetary policy<br />
statement, states that on “a cumulative<br />
basis, and compared to other<br />
countries in the region, Zimbabwe’s<br />
foreign direct investment inflows<br />
amounted to US$1,7 billion<br />
over the period 1980 to 2013, whereas,<br />
Zambia and Mozambique received<br />
US$7,7 billion and US$15,8<br />
billion, respectively. Of the total<br />
of US$25,2 billion received between<br />
the three countries since<br />
1980, Zimbabwe has accounted for<br />
a mere 7% which underpins the<br />
“need for the country to create an<br />
investor-friendly environment” to<br />
tap into international capital targeting<br />
African opportunities. China<br />
has been one of the key investors<br />
with a keen interest on investments<br />
in Zimbabwe. But with<br />
Chinese looking for a “financing<br />
channel of reciprocity” with Zimbabwe,<br />
the financial relationship<br />
between the two could be in a process<br />
of being redefined.<br />
Zimbabwe’s relationship with<br />
China dates back to the 1970s<br />
when China supported the liberation<br />
war. <strong>The</strong> Chinese support<br />
for Zimbabwe became more pronounced<br />
as Zimbabwe became<br />
isolated by the western world<br />
through sanctions. In response to<br />
the sanctions by the west, Zimbabwe<br />
adopted a “Look East Policy”<br />
in the early 2000s, which saw Harare<br />
strengthening its ties with<br />
countries like China and Malaysia.<br />
A lot of transactions have<br />
been concluded between China<br />
and Zimbabwe, with Zimbabwe<br />
importing goods ranging from<br />
military, agriculture equipment<br />
to basic goods, while China has<br />
been interested in Zimbabwe’s<br />
mineral resources, particularly<br />
platinum. Zimbabwe holds the<br />
second largest platinum reserves<br />
in the world after South Africa.<br />
China has also invested in other<br />
sectors like energy generation<br />
and water supply.<br />
while there has been increased<br />
investments by the East, Zimbabwe<br />
still requires US$27 billion to<br />
fund its Zim Asset, a national fiveyear<br />
plan to improve basic services<br />
and rebuild the country. <strong>The</strong><br />
country will be looking towards<br />
China (among other funders)<br />
to bankroll this plan, but China<br />
wants Zimbabwe to use its mineral<br />
earnings to guarantee its funding,<br />
showing that the future of<br />
Chinese funding is underpinned<br />
by national income generating capacity.<br />
That is akin to cash flows<br />
in project finance.<br />
<strong>The</strong> Zimbabwe presidential<br />
delegation was in China in August<br />
in a bid to unlock “more Chinese<br />
enterprises to invest and<br />
more Chinese tourists to travel<br />
in Zimbabwe”. A number of<br />
agreements meant to strengthen<br />
the relationship between the<br />
two countries were signed. <strong>The</strong>se<br />
will see increased cooperation<br />
between the two, with China supporting<br />
the economic development<br />
of Zimbabwe in the areas<br />
of industrial zone development,<br />
infrastructure, mining and agriculture.<br />
However, China points<br />
out the need to “discuss with<br />
Zimbabwe the co-operation pattern<br />
and financing channel of<br />
reciprocity and mutual benefit”,<br />
implying that tangible numbers<br />
were not penned down.<br />
Could China be tightening its<br />
funding requirements for its<br />
ally of over 34 years? If that is<br />
the case, what could be the next<br />
source of funding for the country?<br />
Look back west? Maybe not<br />
in the near future.<br />
Zimbabwe, however, resumed<br />
engaging the IMF in 2013 after<br />
a decade of non-engagement. A<br />
team of IMF staff is expected in<br />
Harare this month to assess progress<br />
on the Staff-Monitored Programme<br />
(SMP). IMF insists that<br />
Harare pays it’s debt in arrears<br />
before any further loans can be<br />
granted. In its July 2014 country<br />
report on Zimbabwe, IMF estimates<br />
that the country’s external<br />
debt at end-2014, will stand at<br />
US$12,8 billion (94,5% of GDP)<br />
of which US$5,6 billion is in arrears.<br />
That external debt is projected<br />
to grow to US$22,5 billion<br />
(122% of GDP) by 2019. That is<br />
staggering!<br />
within a month of the President’s<br />
visit to China, Russia sent<br />
its Foreign minister Sergey Lavrov<br />
to Harare with a view to<br />
strengthen “bilateral trade-andeconomic<br />
and investment cooperation,<br />
primarily in the fields of<br />
mining, geological prospecting,<br />
energy, agriculture, infrastruc-<br />
Power station . . . China has already committed to funding a power generation project in Kariba<br />
ture construction, and tourism”<br />
but eyeing Zimbabwe’s platinum<br />
reserves through the US$3 billion<br />
Darwendale Comprehensive Development<br />
Project, as platinum<br />
“will be the driving force behind<br />
all bilateral trade, economic and<br />
investment relations”.<br />
with the President holding the<br />
vice-chair position and eligible for<br />
the rotating African Union chairmanship<br />
in 2015, and currently<br />
being the Sadc chairman, this<br />
could be the opportunity for China<br />
to work with Zimbabwe to push<br />
for “the new type of China-Africa<br />
strategic partnership to a new<br />
level”. Ironically, Russia sees the<br />
same, that Zimbabwe enjoys “a<br />
high level of authority” in African<br />
affairs. It’s obvious that China and<br />
Russia have found some “beauty”<br />
in Zimbabwe, but beauty is in the<br />
eye of the beholder.<br />
• Nesbert Ruwo is a Zimbabwean-born<br />
investment banker<br />
currently based in South Africa.<br />
He can be contacted on<br />
nesr@opportunvest.co.za<br />
PROCUREMENT NOTICE<br />
Russia’s Foreign minister Sergev Lavrov.<br />
Picture: Aaron Ufumeli<br />
<strong>The</strong> United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) would like to solicit bids from qualified<br />
entities for the Supply and Delivery of the following financed through a grant from <strong>The</strong> Global<br />
Fund, To Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM);<br />
Invitation to Bid Reference Number: ITB-ZIM-GF-031-2014 Designing and Printing of<br />
Forms and Registers<br />
<strong>The</strong> programme is implemented by UNDP Zimbabwe Office in collaboration with the Ministry<br />
of Health and Child Care in Zimbabwe.<br />
Interested potential bidders should download the detailed ITB documents on:<br />
http://www.undp.org.zw/about-undp/work-with-us/procurement;<br />
http://procurement-notices-admin.undp.org/;<br />
https://www.ungm.org/Public/Notice<br />
for their further action and submission of bid by 2 nd October 2014 no later than 1300 hours.<br />
Hand delivered, sealed envelopes to be submitted at UNDP Zimbabwe, Tender Box in Block 7,<br />
Arundel Office Park, Norfolk Road, Mt Pleasant, Harare<br />
Please note that this advert is not to be construed in any way as an offer to contract with your<br />
firm. Furthermore, UNDP reserves the right to reject part or all of the proposals.<br />
Block 10, Arundel Office Park, Norfolk Road, Mt Pleasant, P O Box 4775, Harare, Zimbabwe<br />
Tel: (263 4) 338836-44; Fax: (263 4) 338294; Email: Registry@undp.org