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THE Z-CODE SPORTS INVESTING BIBLE Nine Myths and Mistakes in Sports Betting (Betting Wisdom 101 by Z-Code Experts Trey, Mike and Alberto) Don't even think about investing in sports before reading this! Avoid the amateur mistakes others make when losing money in sports betting! Myth #1: Win Rate Should the success of sports prediction services be measured in “win rate” or profit? Can you go to the store and pay with a high “win rate”, or would you rather prefer the cash? In the 6
The Z-Code Sports Investing Bible www.ZcodeSystem.com end, long-term profit is the only measure of quality in a sports prediction service. Win rate is one of the most irrelevant statistics in sports investing, often used by handicappers as a trap to lure new accounts. As you know, many professional handicappers offer high win rates of up to 99%, luring novice bettors into their scam. 99% accuracy for sports picks is a myth, while accuracy rates of 53-60% are considered to be elite among professional handicappers. A high win rate does not guarantee profit, but seems important to the untrained eye. Let’s take hypothetical scenarios for Bettor A and Bettor B as examples: Bettor A makes relatively safe bets on strong favorites with odds like 1.35 (-300). After 10 bets, Bettor A has won seven wagers and lost only three. The result is an impressive 70% win rate, which gets advertised as a triumphant success by his handicapping service. A closer look, however, reveals that Bettor A’s strategy is deeply flawed. Using one-unit wagers, Bettor A made (1.35x7)-7 = $2.45 on seven winning wagers. With the same one-unit bets, Bettor A lost 1 x 3 = $3 on three losing wagers. The total is a net loss of $0.55 units for every ten wagers made in this system. Despite a gaudy 70% win rate, Bettor A actually loses more than half a unit for every ten bets. Bettor B makes riskier bets on underdog lines with greater value. Though Bettor B recognizes that a 70% win rate is unlikely on odds like 2.10 (+110), there is long-term value to this strategy. Bettor B made ten bets and won only five, losing the other five wagers. The result is a meager 50% win rate, which at first glance appears inferior to the strategy of Bettor 7
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