Climate Solutions 2: Low-Carbon Re-Industrialisation - WWF Blogs

Contents
Executive Summary
vii
1 Objectives 1
2 Method 5
2.1 Step 1: Establish Threshold of Runaway Climate Change 5
2.2 Step 2: Establish Gross Carbon Budget and Required 2050 Emissions Levels 5
2.3 Step 3: Establish the “Reducible Carbon Budget” (After Irreducible Emissions) 5
2.4 Step 4: Establish the Baseline of Energy and Non-Energy Demand 5
2.5 Step 5: Establish Data for Relevant Industries, Growth and Resources 5
2.6 Step 6: Input Probability Distributions in the Monte Carlo Simulator 6
2.7 Step 7: Energy, Non-Energy and Emissions Scenario Results 6
2.8 Step 8: Costs, Investments and Returns 6
2.9 Step 9: Extension to Minus 80% 7
2.10 Step 10: Limits of Delay 7
3 Introduction to the Climate Risk Industry Sector Technology
Allocation (CRISTAL) Model 9
3.1 Introduction 9
3.2 Key Inputs 11
3.3 Key Features of the Model 12
3.4 Emissions Abatement Sectors 22
3.5 Emissions Abatements Not Considered 23
4 Defining the Climate and Emissions Requirements 27
4.1 From Dangerous to Runaway 27
4.2 The Tipping Elements to Runaway Climate Change 27
4.3 Avoiding Runaway Climate Change 31
4.4 Avoiding 2°C of Warming 32
4.5 The Concept of Overshoot and Return 35
4.6 What 2050 Emissions Level will Avoid 2°C of Warming? 36
4.7 Scenarios 37
5 Scenario A (Minus 63%): Emissions and Energy 41
5.1 Emissions 41
5.2 Final Energy 45
5.3 Non-Energy 48
6 Scenario B (Minus 80%): Emissions and Energy 51
6.1 Emissions 51
6.2 Final Energy 55
6.3 Non-Energy 57
7 Scenario A (Minus 63%): Costs, Investment and Returns 59
7.1 Non-Energy 59
7.2 Efficiency 59
7.3 Renewable Energy Investment 61
7.4 CCS Costs 62
Climate Solutions 2: Low-Carbon Re-Industrialisation
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Climate Risk