The math of decision in Radiology - MIR

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Do not treat Further tests or follow-up Treat 0% Very unlikely to have disease 25% Probably doesn’t have disease 50% Don’t know 75% Probably does have 100 % Very likely to have disease
Probability in Orders • Thunderclap headache • Lower quadrant pain, leukocytosis, womiting, ribaund • Lung Ca, recent vertigo, Rull out brain metastasis • 35 year age woman, pain and visual loss in right eye and hemiparesis
Page 1 and 2: THE MATH OF DECISION IN RADIOLOGY P
Page 3 and 4: Question 1 A lymphadenopathy in med
Page 5 and 6: When Do Radiologists Make Decision
Page 7 and 8: • Virtually always • Often •
Page 9: Sir William Osler 1849 -1919 “Med
Page 13 and 14: Subjective probability of estimates
Page 15 and 16: Diagnostic tests are not perfect. F
Page 17 and 18: Which Test is the Strongest? Test S
Page 19 and 20: Positive Likelihood Ratio LR+ = sen
Page 21 and 22: Test Sensitivity Specificity A 80%
Page 23 and 24: Test Sensitivity Specificity LR+ LR
Page 25 and 26: Negative Likelihood Ratio • 0.1 v
Page 27 and 28: LR helps to predict the post-test p
Page 29 and 30: Disease Disease Total + - Test + a
Page 31 and 32: D+ D - Total T + 63 18 81 T - 37 82
Page 33 and 34: Probability revision The probabilit
Page 35 and 36: Post-test probability calculation m
Page 37 and 38: Nomogram Pre-t Prob LR Post-t Prob.
Page 39 and 40: Question 1 LR+=4.5 Pre-test probabi
Page 41 and 42: Summary - I • Radiologists freque
Page 43 and 44: Summary - III • Likelihood ratios
Page 45: Conclusion-IV Post test probability

The math of decision in Radiology - MIR

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