Accenture-Circular-Advantage-Innovative-Business-Models-Technologies-Value-Growth

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Calculating the Value of the Circular Economy In the past few years, several notable studies 8 have produced estimates of the overall value of the circular economy, often with diverging results. The reason for this is a lack of common definition, which means the resulting estimates depend on the boundaries applied to the circular economy—key assumptions underlying the analysis, and analytical approach. Most commonly, bottom-up calculations are made using representative products, material or industries and, as such, are not comparable to studies using other industries, material and products as starting points. In many cases, the focus is on material cost savings (i.e., a waste and recycling perspective)—an important aspect, but one that does not provide the full picture. Across the studies, however, we conclude that the circular economy has the potential to become a trillion-dollar opportunity globally in the near future. In our latest research, Accenture has taken a top-down approach based on a holistic definition of the circular economy and an analysis of the different ways in which resource supply and demand patterns can be shifted by it. This approach enabled us to get the broadest view of value potential and where it sits. Our research found that for the global economy, the full set of circular economy approaches can add over five times the value of current best estimates by 2030 by reducing resource constraints to growth. A detailed set of data will be made available in a forthcoming book but we can now reveal that this value is divided into four broad areas (Figure 1). 1. Lasting resources that can be continuously regenerated over time to not only last longer (efficiency) but last forever (effectiveness) (e.g., renewable energy and biochemicals): Approximately 40 percent of total value 2. Liquid markets where products and assets are optimally utilized by becoming easily accessible and convertible between users (e.g., sharing / trading idle product and asset capacity): 10 percent 3. Long life cycles where products are made to last (e.g., monetizing product longevity through service, upgrade and remanufacturing): 30 percent 4. Linked value chains where zero waste is generated from production to disposal (e.g., boosting recycling and resource efficiency) 20 percent Figure 1: Areas of value creation in the circular economy Multiple users Lasting resources Breaking the link between resource scarcity and economic activity by using only resources that can be continuously regenerated for productive use Liquid markets Eliminating idle time of products in the markets in order to grow the number of users that gain benefit from the same volume of goods Linked value chains Minimizing resource value destruction in a value chain by reclaiming and linking up waste outputs as useful inputs into a next life production process Longer life cycles Keeping products in economic use for longer to satisfy a greater demand and provide more utility without needing additional natural resources 6
The Trouble with the Prevailing Growth Model There are volumes of research that highlight the problem of increasing resource scarcity and mounting waste. 9 Accenture’s own analysis confirms the strong relationship between resource consumption and GDP (Figure 2). In fact, historically for every 1 percent increase in GDP, resource usage has risen on average 0.4 percent. 10 This means population and economic growth are key drivers of resource demand. Clearly, economic development as we know it and resource scarcity are on a collision course. Fortunately, commodity prices have been historically inversely related to growth. Costs declined automatically. But around 2000 this relationship reversed (Figure 3), making reliance on resources for growth increasingly unattractive. 11 As a growing population and expanding global middle class drive demand for resources, these trends will continue and ultimately threaten continuation of business as usual. The world is already using approximately 1.5 planet’s worth of resources every year. Based on the current pace, we’ll consume three planets by 2050. 12 It’s an unsustainable scenario, especially given the lack of disruptive innovations on the horizon that can scale quickly enough to change the trajectory. 8 Ellen MacArthur Foundation, “Towards the Circular Economy,” Volumes 1 and 2, 2012- 2013, (http://www.ellenmacarthurfoundation. org/business/reports/ce2012 and http://www. ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/business/reports/ ce2013); The Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research, “Opportunities for a Circular Economy in the Netherlands,” 2013 (http://www. government.nl/documents-and-publications/ reports/2013/10/04/opportunities-for-a-circulareconomy-in-the-netherlands.html); Waste & Resources Action Programme (http://www.wrap. org.uk/content/eu-vision-2020); Lin Huocan and Liu Cheng, “Circular Economy Poised for Rapid Growth,” China Economic Net, June 29, 2012 (http://en.ce.cn/ Insight/201206/29/t20120629_23449603.shtml); World Economic Forum & Accenture, “More with Less: Scaling Sustainable Consumption and Resource Efficiency”, 2012 9 Among those who have already explored the connection between growth and resource consumption include The Club of Rome (http:// www.clubofrome.org/), Ernst U.von Weizsacker in Factor Four: Doubling Wealth, Halving Resource Use (http://www.amazon.com/Factor-Four- Doubling-Halving-Resource/dp/1853834068), Walter R. Stahel in The Performance Economy (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Performance- Economy-Walter-R-Stahel/dp/0230584667), The Ellen MacArthur Foundation (http://www. ellenmacarthurfoundation.org/), and the United Nations Environment Programme’s International Resource Panel (http://www.unep.org/ resourcepanel/). 10 Accenture analysis based on data from SERI and Dittrich, M. (2014). Global Material Flow Database. 2014 version and World Bank GDP data, http://data. worldbank.org/ 11 Accenture analysis based on data from World Bank, Commodity Price Data (The Pink Sheet), April 2014 version 12 Global Footprint Network (2012) Figure 2: Around the world, the link between increased resource use and growth is evident Log plot of Resource use and Economic development, 166 countries Tons/Cap 100 Australia USA Resource use 10 Niger India China Colombia Brazil Germany 1 Bangladesh R-Squared: 0,57 P-Value:
Page 1 and 2: Circular Advantage Innovative Busin
Page 3 and 4: Introduction The growth model favor
Page 5: Our research on Nike, Novozymes and
Page 9 and 10: Figure 3: After the year 2000, a ne
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Page 13 and 14: These business models have their ow
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Page 17 and 18: Digital technologies play an import
Page 19 and 20: At the end of the process—holding
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Page 24: About Accenture Accenture is a glob

Accenture-Circular-Advantage-Innovative-Business-Models-Technologies-Value-Growth

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