market! - CBRE
market! - CBRE
market! - CBRE
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SBV Interest Rates (%)<br />
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW<br />
SBV’s Interest rate<br />
16<br />
14<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
2 0 1 2 W I T H S O M E P O S I T I V E T R E N D S<br />
0<br />
Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12<br />
• Monetary easing –<br />
refinancing & rediscounting<br />
rates cut 1% further<br />
• Deposit interest rate cap<br />
reduced to 8% in an<br />
attempt to lower lending<br />
costs by reducing banks’<br />
financing costs<br />
Stock index<br />
600<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
Base Rate Rediscounting Rate Refinancing Rate<br />
11/10 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 5/12 7/12 9/12 11/12<br />
VNIndex<br />
HNX<br />
• Downward trend in inflation rate, thanks to previous monetary<br />
contraction. Hence opening doors for further monetary easing<br />
• Improving stock <strong>market</strong>, after months of decline<br />
•The first trade surplus in Vietnam since 1993, helping to<br />
stabilize foreign reserves:<br />
• Exports ↑18.3% y-o-y; Imports ↑7.1% y-o-y<br />
• Increasing international arrivals (↑9.5% y-o-y), despite global<br />
economic downturn<br />
• In Ha Noi:<br />
• Social investment ↑13.2% y-o-y, despite recession<br />
• Credit ↑9.3% y-o-y – lower than previous years but more<br />
efficient allocation<br />
4 <strong>CBRE</strong> RESEARCH & CONSULTING <strong>CBRE</strong>’s HANOI REPORT 2012 REVIEW & 2013 OUTLOOK | JANUARY 2013
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