Case Study of Arkansas - Mathematica Policy Research

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Figure 3 Quarterly New Entries in Public Health Coverage, Local CKF Project Areas, October 1999–September 2003 3,500 Northwestern Arkansas ARKids 3,000 Community Health Network 2,500 13 Number of New Entries 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 1999- Q4 2000- Q1 2000- Q2 2000- Q3 2000- Q4 2001- Q1 2001- Q2 2001- Q3 2001- Q4 2002- Q1 2002- Q2 2002- Q3 2002- Q4 2003- Q1 2003- Q2 2003- Q3 Quarter Source: Medicaid Statistical Information System Note: New entries are children enrolling in Medicaid or SCHIP for the first time in the past 12 months.
To explore the possibility that local outreach activities related to the two CKF programs might have affected the number of children enrolling in public coverage, we compared the enrollment trends in each local area with the trends we would have expected based on those in other parts of the state. 8 To the extent that the actual enrollment in these areas exceeded expectations, it suggests that local outreach activities were relatively more successful than outreach activities elsewhere in the state. 9 In the area served by Northwest Arkansas ARKids, the trend in new entries over the study period is about what was expected based on the area’s demographic characteristics and economic conditions (Figure 4, upper panel). With the exception of a small difference between actual and expected new entries in 2001, the two trend lines are nearly identical both before and after CKF funding. This does not mean to suggest that Northwest Arkansas ARKids was ineffective at increasing public health insurance enrollment, but rather that the program appears as effective as efforts in other parts of the state to enroll eligible children. In the area Community Health Network serves, the trend in new entries is often higher than expected, though the gap opens up well before the start of CKF (Figure 4, lower panel). From the second period of 2001 through the fourth quarter of 2002, the actual number of entries consistently exceeds the number expected. The largest difference is in the first quarter of 2002, 8 Expected enrollment is based on a forecasting model that predicts, for each county in the state, the number of children enrolling in Medicaid or SCHIP in each quarter. Inputs to the model include the demographic characteristics of children and families in the county, most notably the number of children below 200 percent of FPL. All these variables are obtained from Census data; some but not all are time varying (depending on whether Census updated them after 2000). The model also includes the local unemployment rate, obtained from Department of Labor statistics. 9 Caution must be used in interpreting differences in the trend between expected and actual new entries, because the expected trend is estimated imprecisely, which leads even fairly large differences in a given quarter to be statistically insignificant. Our main focus, therefore, is on whether the differences persist over long periods. 14
Page 1 and 2: COVERING KIDS AND FAMILIES EVALUATI
Page 3 and 4: CONTENTS Chapter Page I INTRODUCTIO
Page 5 and 6: FIGURES Figure Page 1 QUARTERLY NEW
Page 7 and 8: enrolled in either of them in the p
Page 9 and 10: TABLE 1 KEY EVENTS IN ARKANSAS’ C
Page 11 and 12: III. HISTORY OF THE CK/CKF PROGRAM
Page 13 and 14: The CKF Program Director has been o
Page 15 and 16: Figure 1 Quarterly New Entries in P
Page 17: perceived stigma associated with tr
Page 21 and 22: when the area had 1,000 new entries
Page 23 and 24: Aside from this key difference in t
Page 25: VI. CONCLUSIONS Policy changes in A

Case Study of Arkansas - Mathematica Policy Research

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