Belarus - The Jamestown Foundation

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JAMESTOWN’S MISSION The Jamestown Foundation’s mission is to inform and educate policymakers and the broader policy community about events and trends in those societies, which are strategically or tactically important to the United States and which frequently restrict access to such information. Utilizing indigenous and primary sources, Jamestown’s material is delivered without political bias, filter or agenda. It is often the only source of information that should be, but is not always, available through official or intelligence channels, especially with regard to Eurasia and terrorism. Origins Launched in 1984 after Jamestown’s late president and founder William Geimer’s work with Arkady Shevchenko, the highest-ranking Soviet official ever to defect when he left his position as undersecretary general of the United Nations, the Jamestown Foundation rapidly became the leading source of information about the inner workings of closed totalitarian societies. Over the past two decades, Jamestown has developed an extensive global network of such experts—from the Black Sea to Siberia, from the Persian Gulf to the Asia-Pacific. This core of intellectual talent includes former high-ranking government officials and military officers, political scientists, journalists, scholars and economists. Their insight contributes significantly to policymakers engaged in addressing today’s new and emerging global threats, including that from international terrorists. i
TABLE OF CONTENTS Map of Belarus…………………………………………………………………………………...v Analysis by Grigory Ioffe Belarus: A Countdown Toward Political Change………………………………………………..1 Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the Martians………………………………………………………...3 Belarus and Lithuania: The Estranged Brethren…………………………………………………..5 Belarus and Russia: Affinity and Dependency…………………………………………………....7 Russia: Belarus’s Economic Lifeline and Cultural Magnet……………………………………...10 Setting the Right Tone on Belarus……………………………………………………………….12 Belarus Takes Steps to Strengthen Economy Despite Negative Relations with West…………..14 Belarus Aims to Rebuild Its Ties with the West…………………………………………………16 Coping with the East-West Imbalance in Belarus’s Foreign Relations………………………….18 The EU Visa Ban and the Fate of Independent Belarusian Pollsters…………………………….20 Belarus Defies Clichés…………………………………………………………………………...22 Is Belarus Firmly Within Russia’s Orbit………………………………………………………..24 Multiple Signs of Stabilization in Belarus……………………………………………………….26 Belarus: The End of a Cycle……………………………………………………………………..28 Democracy Promotion, a Release of Two Prisoners, and a Tug of War over Belarus…………..30 Economic Normalization and European Sanctions………………………………………………32 Belarus: A Death Penalty, a Standoff with the EU and a Drift Toward Russia…………………35 Belarus: No Change in the Offing……………………………………………………………….37 Belarus: Marking the Anniversary of Tragic Events…………………………………………….39 ii
Page 1 and 2: Straddling Russia and Europe A Comp
Page 3: THE JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION Published
Page 7 and 8: TABLE OF CONTENTS (CONT.) The West
Page 10 and 11: Belarus: A Countdown Toward Politic
Page 12 and 13: Alyaksandr Lukashenka and the Marti
Page 14 and 15: Martian will ever become president
Page 16 and 17: Lithuanian president repeatedly war
Page 18 and 19: anniversary of the founding of the
Page 20 and 21: 1966). Snopkov believes production
Page 22 and 23: Kazakhstan.” Alluding to the trav
Page 24 and 25: A more long-term positive economic
Page 26 and 27: concerned. First, the former direct
Page 28 and 29: entirely controlled by Belarus due
Page 30 and 31: member state. For example, in Janua
Page 32 and 33: communicating in Belarusian to the
Page 34 and 35: (ej.ru/a=note&id=11825). First, Luk
Page 36 and 37: (see EDM, May 9). The three major g
Page 38 and 39: According to Lukashenka, Putin “w
Page 40 and 41: about violations of human rights in
Page 42 and 43: Belarusians who trust President Luk
Page 44 and 45: Belarus: A Death Penalty, a Standof
Page 46 and 47: industry, promised full-fledged sup
Page 48 and 49: care of its citizens ensuring a dig
Page 50 and 51: and when it was produced. A respons
Page 52 and 53: Kramer’s watch. At that time, the
Page 54 and 55:
Yaraslau Ramanchuk, head of the Mis
Page 56 and 57:
share in Kamunarka be raised to 57.
Page 58 and 59:
established in 1998. According to i
Page 60 and 61:
generation Russian nuclear plants)
Page 62 and 63:
the precarious nature of Belarusian
Page 64 and 65:
Parliamentary Elections in Belarus
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Arguably, since Parliament is close
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Kyrgyzstan’s independence on Augu
Page 70 and 71:
Force Commander Pavel Kurachko comm
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The visits to Cuba and Ecuador appe
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at its peak of 11 members, and head
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Lukashenka regime. The event indica
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Putin Visits Belarus Publication: E
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Lukashenka] have already lasted a t
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Third, Belarus is a small hockey na
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the Eurasian Economic Community has
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een requested to return to their re
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would demonstrate to the internatio
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The question usually raised in such
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part of a new expansion of the indu
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the ostensible secrecy of the commu
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In an article for Belarus Digest, G
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founder of Charter-97, Aleh Byabeni
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Thus, each side failed to anticipat
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percent of the shares to companies
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Mozyr pipelines. Baku rules out any
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another example of Russian denial-o
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Belarus is the only post-Soviet cou
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The challenge to Belarus is to redu
Page 112:
AUTHOR BIOGRAPHIES Grigory Ioffe Gr
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Belarus - The Jamestown Foundation

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