EU Membership Highlights Poland's Migration Challenges

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Source: National Bank of Poland, Department of Statistics.
Return Migration: Truth or Myth Although the global recession has influenced Polish emigration flows, it is difficult to estimate its exact impact on Poles' decisions to come home. The subject has captured international headlines since the start of the recession, as Poles in the United Kingdom and Ireland make up a significant portion of migrants in both countries. Since there are no comprehensive EU data on return migration in the Member States, existing estimates can be made from Polish and UK data. The most recent Polish CSO data show that 2.21 million Poles have migrated for work as of 2008, of whom 650,000 were in the United Kingdom. In 2007, the figures were 2.27 million and 690,000, respectively, and in 2006, 1.95 million and 580,000. The share of Poles in the United Kingdom has remained constant at about 29 percent to 30 percent. The CSO data also confirm that the number of registered Poles abroad decreased by 60,000 in all Polish emigration countries in 2008 compared to 2007. The only drops were registered in Britain (-40,000) and Ireland (-20,000) whereas the number in Norway, the Netherlands, and Denmark increased (see Table 4). Table 4. Emigration from Poland for Temporary Stay, 2004 to End of 2008* Country of Stay Number of emigrants (in thousands) Year 2002** 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 TOTAL 786 1,000 1,450 1,950 2,270 2,210 Europe 461 770 1,200 1,610 1,925 1,887 of which: European Union (27 countries)*** 451 750 1,170 1,550 1,860 1,820 of which: Austria 11 15 25 34 39 40 Belgium 14 13 21 28 31 33 Cyprus - - - - 4 4 Denmark - - - - 17 19 Finland 0.3 0.4 0.7 3 4 4 France 21 30 44 49 55 56 Greece 10 13 17 20 20 20 Spain 14 26 37 44 80 83 Ireland 2 15 76 120 200 180 Netherlands 10 23 43 55 98 108 Germany 294 385 430 450 490 490 Portugal 0.3 0.5 0.6 1 1 1 Czech Republic - - - - 8 10 Sweden 6 11 17 25 27 29 United Kingdom 24 150 340 580 690 650 Italy 39 59 70 85 87 88 Countries outside the European Union 10 20 30 60 65 67 of which: Norway - - - - 36 38 Source: Central Statistical Office, 2009. * For 2002 to 2006: more than two months. For 2007 to 2008: more than three months ** After taking into account the number of emigrants with an unknown country of temporary stay, the number of emigrants staying in the European countries amounted to 547,000, of which 535,000 were in EU countries *** Until 2006: 25 countries. UK data from the quarterly Labor Force Survey (LFS) tell a similar story although they show a more recent decrease in population. The number of Polish immigrants grew steadily from 2005 until early 2008, when growth leveled off (see Figure 5). Between the second and fourth quarters of 2009, the Polish immigrant population fell from about 541,000 to about 484,000, a statistically significant drop of about 57,000 people. Since then, the Polish immigrant population has begun growing. LFS data showed a statistically significant increase in the second quarter of 2010, when the population was about 537,000.
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EU Membership Highlights Poland's Migration Challenges

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