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2<br />
MARCH <strong>2015</strong><br />
DEVONDALE MURRAY GOULBURN<br />
INTERNATIONAL MARKET REVIEW<br />
Prices are up in all product categories<br />
International prices $US/MT FOB<br />
The results of Global Dairy<br />
Trade (GDT) Event 134<br />
which concluded on 17<br />
February produced a GDT Price<br />
Index which was up by 10.1<br />
per cent.<br />
Prices increased in all categories<br />
where product was<br />
offered. This is the fifth consecutive<br />
increase in the Trade<br />
Weighted Index (TWI) on the<br />
GDT platform and the second<br />
major increase following a 9.4<br />
per cent increase registered on<br />
Event 133 which was held on<br />
3 February.<br />
While the improvement in<br />
pricing on the GDT platform is<br />
welcome, we believe it has<br />
been brought about as a reaction<br />
to the drought in New Zealand<br />
and the potential impact that<br />
this may have on the global<br />
supply-demand balance in<br />
dairy.<br />
The recent major reductions in<br />
volume offered through the GDT<br />
platform has been based on<br />
anticipated reduction in NZ milk<br />
The <strong>Devondaler</strong> is published<br />
by Devondale Murray<br />
Goulburn<br />
Editor: Robert White (03)<br />
9846 5188 or 0427 329 815<br />
tophill@optusnet.com.au<br />
Advertising and classified<br />
enquiries: (03) 9040 5000<br />
Murray Goulburn<br />
Co-operative Co. Limited,<br />
Level 15, 2 Southbank<br />
Boulevard, Southbank,<br />
Victoria 3006<br />
Phone: (03) 9040 5000<br />
MG suppliers and employees<br />
are welcome to submit<br />
photograps and editorial for<br />
consideration. Deadline is the<br />
24th of each month.<br />
The Devondale<br />
Murray Goulburn<br />
Twitter account<br />
is online now at<br />
@DevondaleMG<br />
production which may have been<br />
responsible for price recovery on<br />
the platform.<br />
The medium term response,<br />
however, will depend on actual<br />
milk production statistics and<br />
how this compares to the<br />
expected decreases which have<br />
been widely reported.<br />
The milk production forecast<br />
for the current season in NZ is<br />
expected to be 3.3 per cent<br />
below last season as a result of<br />
the current drought, in combination<br />
with lower milk prices<br />
which discourages supplementary<br />
feeding.<br />
Season-to-date milk volumes<br />
are ahead of last year, although<br />
the rate of growth is slowing due<br />
to the dry conditions.<br />
Daily milk production across<br />
NZ is now eight per cent lower<br />
than the same period last<br />
season.<br />
Milk production in the 23<br />
major States in USA during<br />
January was up 2.1 per cent<br />
compared to January 2014 with<br />
the medium term outlook for<br />
Key results<br />
MAIN PRODUCTS<br />
SMP up 5.7%, average price<br />
$US2744/MT<br />
WMP up 13.7%, average price<br />
$US3272/MT<br />
AMF up 6.4%, average price<br />
$4314/MT<br />
OTHER PRODUCTS<br />
Butter up 1.1%, average price<br />
$US3823/MT<br />
BMP up 1.9%, average price<br />
$US2674MT<br />
Cheddar up 16.8%, average<br />
price $US3054/MT<br />
Rennet Casein up 1.2%, average<br />
price $8US,97/MT<br />
SWP (Sweet Whey Powder) –<br />
No sale reported.<br />
The results of the<br />
next few GTD<br />
auction events<br />
will provide a<br />
better indication<br />
of the global<br />
response to availability<br />
versus<br />
demand for dairy<br />
and the outlook<br />
for pricing over<br />
the balance of<br />
this season.<br />
sustained growth while domestic<br />
demand remains stable.<br />
Milk production per cow in<br />
USA is also at a record high<br />
and bolstered by lower feed<br />
costs.<br />
The recent introduction of<br />
margin protection insurance in<br />
USA is of concern as this will<br />
allow farmers to lock in a<br />
margin and keep producing<br />
even when market prices are<br />
falling, which would normally<br />
be a signal to reduce<br />
production.<br />
European Union (EU) milk<br />
production has slowed as farm<br />
gates prices have dropped and<br />
producers seek to avoid penalties<br />
for producing in excess of<br />
quotas at the end of <strong>March</strong>.<br />
Post <strong>March</strong>, the gloves are off<br />
with quotas being abolished.<br />
The question remains as to<br />
how much the EU will gear up<br />
milk production and the impact<br />
of potential surpluses on the<br />
international market.<br />
On a positive note, EU commodity<br />
prices have recently<br />
started to firm in Euro terms<br />
which signals a recovery is<br />
under way.<br />
Mixed messages are coming<br />
out of China regarding the<br />
underlying demand for dairy<br />
once surplus stocks have been<br />
exhausted.<br />
We have received feedback<br />
that there are still exports of<br />
FCMP from China suggesting<br />
that internal stock problems have<br />
not yet been brought under control.<br />
We will continue to monitor<br />
this situation.<br />
The results of the next few<br />
GTD auction events will provide<br />
a better indication of the global<br />
response to availability versus<br />
demand for dairy and the outlook<br />
for pricing over the balance<br />
of this season.<br />
Suppliers’ meetings<br />
across three states<br />
THE first round of Devondale Murray Goulburn suppliers’ meetings<br />
for <strong>2015</strong> will be held in Victoria, New South Wales and<br />
South Australia during <strong>March</strong>.<br />
DATE VENUE TIME<br />
VICTORIA<br />
<strong>March</strong> 16 Maffra Football Club Noon-2pm<br />
Yarram and District 7.30-930pm.<br />
Health Services<br />
<strong>March</strong> 17 Leongatha Football Club 11.45am-1.45pm<br />
Heywood Football Club 7.30-9.30pm<br />
<strong>March</strong> 18 Camperdown Civic 12.30-2.30pm<br />
Centre<br />
Cohuna Bowls Club 7.30-9.30pm<br />
<strong>March</strong> 19 Rochester Racecourse 11.30am-1.30pm<br />
Reserve<br />
Cobram/Barooga Sports 7.30-9.30pm<br />
Club<br />
<strong>March</strong> 20 Kiewa Coulston Park Noon-2pm.<br />
Community Centre<br />
SOUTH AUSTRALIA<br />
<strong>March</strong> 23 Encounter Bay Football 11.30am-1.30pm<br />
Club<br />
<strong>March</strong> 24 Nuriootpa PIRSA 11.30am-1.30pm<br />
Building<br />
NEW SOUTH WALES<br />
<strong>March</strong> 23 Club Taree 11.30am-1.30pm<br />
Singleton Diggers Club 7.30-9.30pm<br />
<strong>March</strong> 24 Gerroa Boat Fishing Club 12.30-2.30pm<br />
Kiama