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Devondaler-March-2015

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2<br />

MARCH <strong>2015</strong><br />

DEVONDALE MURRAY GOULBURN<br />

INTERNATIONAL MARKET REVIEW<br />

Prices are up in all product categories<br />

International prices $US/MT FOB<br />

The results of Global Dairy<br />

Trade (GDT) Event 134<br />

which concluded on 17<br />

February produced a GDT Price<br />

Index which was up by 10.1<br />

per cent.<br />

Prices increased in all categories<br />

where product was<br />

offered. This is the fifth consecutive<br />

increase in the Trade<br />

Weighted Index (TWI) on the<br />

GDT platform and the second<br />

major increase following a 9.4<br />

per cent increase registered on<br />

Event 133 which was held on<br />

3 February.<br />

While the improvement in<br />

pricing on the GDT platform is<br />

welcome, we believe it has<br />

been brought about as a reaction<br />

to the drought in New Zealand<br />

and the potential impact that<br />

this may have on the global<br />

supply-demand balance in<br />

dairy.<br />

The recent major reductions in<br />

volume offered through the GDT<br />

platform has been based on<br />

anticipated reduction in NZ milk<br />

The <strong>Devondaler</strong> is published<br />

by Devondale Murray<br />

Goulburn<br />

Editor: Robert White (03)<br />

9846 5188 or 0427 329 815<br />

tophill@optusnet.com.au<br />

Advertising and classified<br />

enquiries: (03) 9040 5000<br />

Murray Goulburn<br />

Co-operative Co. Limited,<br />

Level 15, 2 Southbank<br />

Boulevard, Southbank,<br />

Victoria 3006<br />

Phone: (03) 9040 5000<br />

MG suppliers and employees<br />

are welcome to submit<br />

photograps and editorial for<br />

consideration. Deadline is the<br />

24th of each month.<br />

The Devondale<br />

Murray Goulburn<br />

Twitter account<br />

is online now at<br />

@DevondaleMG<br />

production which may have been<br />

responsible for price recovery on<br />

the platform.<br />

The medium term response,<br />

however, will depend on actual<br />

milk production statistics and<br />

how this compares to the<br />

expected decreases which have<br />

been widely reported.<br />

The milk production forecast<br />

for the current season in NZ is<br />

expected to be 3.3 per cent<br />

below last season as a result of<br />

the current drought, in combination<br />

with lower milk prices<br />

which discourages supplementary<br />

feeding.<br />

Season-to-date milk volumes<br />

are ahead of last year, although<br />

the rate of growth is slowing due<br />

to the dry conditions.<br />

Daily milk production across<br />

NZ is now eight per cent lower<br />

than the same period last<br />

season.<br />

Milk production in the 23<br />

major States in USA during<br />

January was up 2.1 per cent<br />

compared to January 2014 with<br />

the medium term outlook for<br />

Key results<br />

MAIN PRODUCTS<br />

SMP up 5.7%, average price<br />

$US2744/MT<br />

WMP up 13.7%, average price<br />

$US3272/MT<br />

AMF up 6.4%, average price<br />

$4314/MT<br />

OTHER PRODUCTS<br />

Butter up 1.1%, average price<br />

$US3823/MT<br />

BMP up 1.9%, average price<br />

$US2674MT<br />

Cheddar up 16.8%, average<br />

price $US3054/MT<br />

Rennet Casein up 1.2%, average<br />

price $8US,97/MT<br />

SWP (Sweet Whey Powder) –<br />

No sale reported.<br />

The results of the<br />

next few GTD<br />

auction events<br />

will provide a<br />

better indication<br />

of the global<br />

response to availability<br />

versus<br />

demand for dairy<br />

and the outlook<br />

for pricing over<br />

the balance of<br />

this season.<br />

sustained growth while domestic<br />

demand remains stable.<br />

Milk production per cow in<br />

USA is also at a record high<br />

and bolstered by lower feed<br />

costs.<br />

The recent introduction of<br />

margin protection insurance in<br />

USA is of concern as this will<br />

allow farmers to lock in a<br />

margin and keep producing<br />

even when market prices are<br />

falling, which would normally<br />

be a signal to reduce<br />

production.<br />

European Union (EU) milk<br />

production has slowed as farm<br />

gates prices have dropped and<br />

producers seek to avoid penalties<br />

for producing in excess of<br />

quotas at the end of <strong>March</strong>.<br />

Post <strong>March</strong>, the gloves are off<br />

with quotas being abolished.<br />

The question remains as to<br />

how much the EU will gear up<br />

milk production and the impact<br />

of potential surpluses on the<br />

international market.<br />

On a positive note, EU commodity<br />

prices have recently<br />

started to firm in Euro terms<br />

which signals a recovery is<br />

under way.<br />

Mixed messages are coming<br />

out of China regarding the<br />

underlying demand for dairy<br />

once surplus stocks have been<br />

exhausted.<br />

We have received feedback<br />

that there are still exports of<br />

FCMP from China suggesting<br />

that internal stock problems have<br />

not yet been brought under control.<br />

We will continue to monitor<br />

this situation.<br />

The results of the next few<br />

GTD auction events will provide<br />

a better indication of the global<br />

response to availability versus<br />

demand for dairy and the outlook<br />

for pricing over the balance<br />

of this season.<br />

Suppliers’ meetings<br />

across three states<br />

THE first round of Devondale Murray Goulburn suppliers’ meetings<br />

for <strong>2015</strong> will be held in Victoria, New South Wales and<br />

South Australia during <strong>March</strong>.<br />

DATE VENUE TIME<br />

VICTORIA<br />

<strong>March</strong> 16 Maffra Football Club Noon-2pm<br />

Yarram and District 7.30-930pm.<br />

Health Services<br />

<strong>March</strong> 17 Leongatha Football Club 11.45am-1.45pm<br />

Heywood Football Club 7.30-9.30pm<br />

<strong>March</strong> 18 Camperdown Civic 12.30-2.30pm<br />

Centre<br />

Cohuna Bowls Club 7.30-9.30pm<br />

<strong>March</strong> 19 Rochester Racecourse 11.30am-1.30pm<br />

Reserve<br />

Cobram/Barooga Sports 7.30-9.30pm<br />

Club<br />

<strong>March</strong> 20 Kiewa Coulston Park Noon-2pm.<br />

Community Centre<br />

SOUTH AUSTRALIA<br />

<strong>March</strong> 23 Encounter Bay Football 11.30am-1.30pm<br />

Club<br />

<strong>March</strong> 24 Nuriootpa PIRSA 11.30am-1.30pm<br />

Building<br />

NEW SOUTH WALES<br />

<strong>March</strong> 23 Club Taree 11.30am-1.30pm<br />

Singleton Diggers Club 7.30-9.30pm<br />

<strong>March</strong> 24 Gerroa Boat Fishing Club 12.30-2.30pm<br />

Kiama

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