housing

Box 4.1
Coverage of resident population
In responding to the Discussion Draft, Rob Keane (sub. DR232) contended that the
ABS population growth figures omit certain household formation groups — namely,
overseas students and business migrants who do not continuously stay for 12 months
in Australia — and that this may have implications for the assessment of housing
demand.
The Commission recognises that the ABS resident population estimates have
limitations when used for assessing housing demand.
In the census, the usual residence rule is used to estimate the resident population.
Essentially, all people in Australia on the census date are included in the count of
resident population, except for short-stay visitors who usually live in another country
and are visiting Australia for less than a year.
Some short-stay visitors who are not included in the resident population estimates may
have housing requirements similar to those counted as part of the resident population.
For example, an overseas student attending a short course (for less than 12 months) in
Australia could rent a house or an apartment, rather than stay in a hotel. (This group of
short-stay visitors is a subset of the visitors referred to by Rob Keane.)
To calculate intercensal changes in the resident population, the ABS measures the
number of arrivals and departures of residents, permanent migrants and visitors (see
box 4.2) to estimate net immigration. Of the visitors, only those who stay or depart for a
continuous period of 12 months or more are included as a change to the resident
population. The movements not included as net migration may include:
• overseas ‘residents’ who spend a considerable amount of time in Australia but for
never more than 12 months at a time; and
• Australians who live overseas but are never continuously absent for longer than
12 months.
Given the significant influx of foreigners coming to work or study in Australia in recent
years, it seems highly likely that short-stay visitor movements may have added to the
demand for housing. However, the Commission is unaware of any research that
quantifies these effects.
Sources: ABS (How Australia Takes a Census, Cat. no. 2903.0; Australian Demographic Statistics, Cat.
no. 3101.0, June Quarter 2003 issue); ABS pers. comm., 2 February 2004.
However, the impacts of population growth on the demand for housing in particular
cities and regions are subtle and complex, and understanding them requires analysis
not only of aggregate figures, but also of:
• the sources of population growth, and in particular the extent to which it derives
from natural increase or immigration;
• the composition of arriving immigrants;
62 FIRST HOME
OWNERSHIP