Bombardier-Aerospace-20140716-Business-Aircraft-Market-Forecast_2014-33

REGIONAL FORECAST | ASIA PACIFIC
ASIA PACIFIC
FLEET GROWTH
FORECAST
Units, 2013 – 2033
Light Medium Large
60
110
240
410
130
105
110
345
15
35
20
190
200
330
720
170
155
215
540
30
6% CAGR
75
45
1,185
360
325
500
Source: Ascend, Bombardier Business Aircraft Market Forecast.
Excludes Very Light Jets and Large Corporate Airliners. Fleet 2013 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2023 Deliveries Retirements Fleet 2033
Business aviation in Asia Pacific 9 includes a
mix of the well-established business aviation
sector of advanced economies such as Australia
and Japan, as well as that of the emerging
economies such as Indonesia, the Philippines
and Vietnam.
The health of the Japanese economy is
important to the overall region. In order
to counter the relative stagnation of the
country’s economy, the Japanese government
is focused on fiscal and monetary expansion
as well as strengthening structural reforms.
In December 2013, the Japanese government
unveiled details of a ¥5.5T (~$54B) spending
package to mitigate the expected strain on the
economy from a sales tax increase of 5% to
8%, starting in April 2014. This policy is focused
on encouraging corporate investment and
ECONOMIC GROWTH: ASIA PACIFIC
GDP (%)
GDP ($*)
% of World GDP
2013 2014
2014-2033
Average
2.7% 2.6% 2.5%
11,019.5 11,304.0 14,534.5
16% 16% 15%
*Billions of 2010 USD. Source: IHS Global Insight April 2014
employment, as well as providing assistance to
low-income households. The package includes
¥1.4T (~$13.7B) to promote capital investment
by enterprises in preparation for the Tokyo
2020 Summer Olympic Games. These economic
actions are expected to invigorate the Japanese
economy over the short- to medium-term.
In other emerging countries in Asia Pacific,
growth is expected to dip slightly in 2014
because of tighter domestic and external
financial conditions. These economies will start
to recover in the medium-term assisted by
stronger external demand and weaker currencies.
Indonesia and the Philippines are projected to
become the fastest-growing economies within
the region in the short- and medium-term.
The strong economic outlook for these countries
will be supported by robust growth in domestic
demand, strong infrastructure spending and
implementation of structural economic reforms.
The economy of Thailand will be impacted by
internal political uncertainties that affected its
growth in the first half of 2014.
Despite hurdles such as high aircraft handling
costs at airports and limited airport access
in countries such as Japan, Asia Pacific has
experienced a relatively high delivery and
fleet growth rate. This progress is expected
to continue as economic growth in the region
improves in the short- and medium-term and
stabilizes over the next 20 years.
As of the end of 2013, the fleet in Asia Pacific
accounted for 3% of the worldwide business jet
installed base. Over the last 10 years, Asia Pacific
experienced a two-fold increase of its fleet size
with an estimated 410 aircraft in 2013 compared
to 204 in 2004. More than half of the overall
regional fleet is within Australia and Japan,
with 33% and 18% of the overall installed based,
respectively. The growing business jet installed
base in Asia Pacific is expected to create
significant replacement demand for the mature
markets, such as Australia. Demand for business
jets in the medium-term will be strong in the
countries with rapidly growing economies, such
as Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines.
Asia Pacific is forecasted to receive 885 aircraft
deliveries between 2014 and 2033, increasing the
fleet by a CAGR of 6% over the forecast period.
9 For the purposes of this forecast, Asia Pacific excludes
Greater China and India.
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